Publishing Institution: LSE IDEAS / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 10 Years

1. Taking Stock of Brexit

Author:: Iain Begg
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: J ohn Curtice, the UK’s foremost polling expert, wrote recently that ‘politicians do not talk much about Brexit these days’ (Curtice, 2025). In Germany, too, Brexit has largely disappeared from view, according to a prominent journalist consulted in the preparation of this blog. Another expert, Anand Menon, told AP News on the fifth anniversary of the UK leaving the EU that Brexit had ‘changed our economy’, adding that ‘our politics has been changed quite fundamentally’ (Lawless, 2025). His view is that, in electoral politics, conventional political cleavages have been supplanted by ‘a new division around Brexit’ (Lawless, 2025). In much of the EU, the 2025 anniversary elicited many articles characterised by a combination of acknowledgment that Brexit had failed to deliver, resignation about the UK’s fate and a sense of growing disinterest. The Austrian newspaper Kourier summed up these sentiments: “Von skurril bis tragisch: Eine Bilanz nach fünf Jahren Brexit [From bizarre to tragic, a stocktake after five years of Brexit]” (Bauer, 2025). However, Brexit is a process, rather than a discrete event, and some of its effects are both contested and take time, and are often seen through ideological rather than analytic lenses. A useful way to assess its consequences is to distinguish between three key dimensions: economic, social and governance related. The overall economic effects of Brexit have mainly been negative on both sides of the English Channel, albeit uneven, although some critics regard the magnitudes as having been exaggerated.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

2. Energy Data Spaces and Market Power: a new challenge for data sovereignty and its governance

Author:: Emanuele Giovannetti
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Regulation, Digitalization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:: Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. The New Political Economy of Supply: resources, rare earths and finance

Author:: Philip Andrews-Speed
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: China is the dominant player in the global low-carbon energy transition in two respects: it has deployed the largest fleet of low-carbon electricity generation capacity in the world, and it dominates several international supply chains for clean energy minerals, metals and equipment. China has installed a massive amount of infrastructure for both solar and wind energy since 2010. The total capacity reached 1,300 GW by the end of 2024, which is more than 45% of the global total. Investment in hydro power and nuclear power also continues. These non-fossil fuels accounted for about 40% of the nation’s power generation in 2024. At the same time, the country has built up the world’s largest electric vehicle industry and is likely to take the lead in the manufacture and use of green hydrogen. This success has been built upon several foundations. Most important are the various policies of central and local government that supported investment and innovation along the clean energy supply chains over two decades or more. In the early days, this relied on technology transfer from abroad. More recently, the development of technology and manufacturing clusters have assisted scaling up and innovation, all supported by abundant and skilled human capital (Hove, 2024). All this adds credibility to Xi Jinping’s pledge to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and ‘strive for’ carbon neutrality by 2060. However, energy and fossil fuel consumption are still rising, as are carbon emissions. Coal is the main culprit as the country has large reserves, and the government sees coal as providing the foundation for energy security. Coal accounted for about 55% of power generation in 2024 and remains an important fuel in some industries. The continued increase in the use of coal will result in the peak of carbon emissions being significantly higher than might have been projected ten years ago. The good news is that the declining rate of GDP growth combined with the increasing electrification of the economy may result in emissions peaking in the next two-to-three years.
Topic:: Political Economy, Natural Resources, Finance, Carbon Emissions, Rare earth elements (REEs), and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

5. The Changing Face of the South Caucasus

Author:: Teona Giuashvili
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on the South Caucasus has been neither linear nor uniform. The war has ushered in a period of interregnum between the earlier regional order and one whose features are yet to emerge. It has shifted political dynamics within the three states of the South Caucasus and has affected the interests and positions of external actors, altering the regional balance of power. In all three countries in the region, the interregnum has amplified trends that predated the war: it consolidated Azerbaijan’s assertive foreign policy, reinforced Armenia’s striving for emancipation from Russia, and accelerated Georgia’s drift away from the West. While Türkiye took advantage of Russia’s distraction from the region and fostered its position in the South Caucasus, the shift in the status quo in the region has penalised Iran’s regional interests. Throughout the last three years, the South Caucasus has witnessed the receding influence of the US and the EU, and the expansion of China’s geoeconomic footprint.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

6. Poland at a Crossroads? Strategic Choices Amid Shifting Transatlantic Security Dynamics

Author:: Marcin Fatalski and Wojciech Michnik
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Poland stands at a pivotal moment, navigating domestic political transitions while adapting to profound changes in the transatlantic security landscape. The outcome of key elections (presidential in 2025 and parliamentary in 2027) will shape the country’s strategic direction, as NATO and the EU confront some of the most significant challenges in their history. A second Trump presidency marks a turning point for European security, amplifying EU-sceptical forces and reshaping the regional balance of power. This Strategic Update examines the key domestic and international factors influencing Poland’s political and strategic decision-making, and Poland’s role in the evolving European security architecture – especially in times of the resurgent populist sentiments on both sides of the Atlantic and increasingly aggressive behaviour of the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

7. Critical Minerals and the New Industrial Order

Author:: Sophia Kalantzakos
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: On 16 June 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission, 2025a) presented a rare earth permanent magnet made in Estonia at the G7 summit. The move was on point. It spoke to a major geoeconomic challenge troubling governments and industry; how to ensure uninterrupted access to critical minerals to power the global seismic green and digital shifts currently underway. Von der Leyen spotlighted that this magnet was produced by a Canadian company supported by the European Union Just Transition Fund and that the materials it contained were sourced from Australia, not China. Europe was now one step closer to building resilience and derisking the supply chains necessary to electrify transport, deploy renewables, and build its tech capacity for the fourth industrial revolution.
Topic:: Supply Chains, Geoeconomics, Fourth Industrial Revolution, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. What next for African Union peace operations in Somalia?

Author:: Partha Moman
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update from Partha Moman traces the evolution of African Union peace operations in Somalia, from AMISOM’s deployment in 2007 to the current AUSSOM mission; it addresses the failure of negotiations and strategic vision, the reduction of multilateral intervention, shifting mandates, operational challenges, and political violence dynamics. As security in Somalia remains volatile and funding gaps persist, this paper provides policy recommendations for a strategic reorientation of AUSSOM towards enabling positive political dialogue, improving transparency and cost-effectiveness to foster long-term peace and stability.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Negotiation, Transparency, African Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

9. Scramble for the Undersea: Challenges ahead for deep-seabed mining and submarine cables

Author:: Amaia Sánchez-Cacicedo
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update focuses on the geopolitical competition and challenges surrounding deep-seabed mining and submarine telecommunications cables, particularly in the context of the Indian Ocean Region.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Mining, Strategic Competition, Jurisdiction, Telecommunications, and Subsea Cables
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Indian Ocean

10. Energy Security in the Baltics: Perceptions in the Midst of the Russia-Ukraine War

Author:: Leon Hartwell and Agnė Rakštytė
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Amidst the geopolitical complexities of Eurasia, the strategic employment of energy resources has emerged as a potent tool for projecting power. Since coming to power, Vladimir Putin has wielded energy security as a means to exert influence across the region, with the pinnacle of this influence underscored during the February 2022 escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. This paper delves into perceptions on energy in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania amidst the RussiaUkraine war, specifically focusing on attitudes towards energy security, renewable energy sources, and energy efficiency. Drawing upon insights from a comprehensive mixed-methods study that involved eight focus groups and a survey of approximately 4,500 individuals (over 1,500 from each Baltic state), the research illuminates key similarities and differences in public perceptions across these nations. Key findings reveal a shared concern for energy security in all three countries, coupled with a desire for sustainable and self-sufficient energy solutions. While there is broad support for a transition to renewable energy sources, preferences for specific energy types vary. The research also identifies widespread public scepticism towards government energy strategies, and varying levels of willingness to pay higher prices for environmentally friendly energy. This analysis informs nuanced policy recommendations for Baltic states and European policymakers geared towards enhancing energy security across the region. Recommendations include more effective communication of long-term energy strategies, tailored campaigns to address scepticism towards renewable energy, and economic incentives to promote affordability and adoption of sustainable solutions.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, Renewable Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

11. Ukraine's Drone Ecosystem and the Defence of Europe: Lessons Lost Can't be Learned

Author:: Jon-Wyatt Matlack, Sebastian Schwartz, and Oliver Gill
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ukraine’s unique capabilities in drone warfare have significantly contributed to halting the largest land invasion in Europe since 1945. Given the looming threat of escalation on its eastern flank, NATO allies have a problem: falling short in understanding Ukraine’s drone ecosystem risks abdicating the strategic momentum in drone warfare to Russia and its allies. Through primary interviews with military, government, and civilian actors, we argue that the core characteristics of this ecosystem represent lessons to be learned themselves. Unfolding across the categories of speed, scale, and urgency, we recommend to NATO allies three policy proposals stemming from our analysis: the establishment of an institutionalised joint venture system for defence technologies, a systematic civil-military liaison structure, and the commitment to binding defence contracts in exchange for soliciting Ukrainian drone expertise. We conclude by pointing towards the sober truth: NATO countries cannot learn the lessons from Ukraine’s drone ecosystem if they concede to Russia’s strategic goals.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Weapons, Drones, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

12. From Globalisation to Geopolitics: The Changing Dynamics of World Order and their Implications for the EU

Author:: Richard Higgott
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In 2025, the narrative of globalisation has been replaced by geopolitics and great power competition. Today’s international system is increasingly shaped by four significant trends, influenced by strongman leadership: democratic backsliding, declining trust in the United States, fractured transatlantic relations, and a new mercantilism. This research report from LSE IDEAS’s Europe Initiative and authored by Richard Higgott is supported by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. It discusses this shift from globalisation to geopolitics. The paper analyses the changing dynamics of world order including ‘middle powers’, the role of strongman leaders, and the implications for the European Union – concluding with strategic recommendations for European policymakers.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Is the G7 still relevant?

Author:: Raffaele Trombetta
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the first of our new Expert Analysis series, former Italian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Raffaele Trombetta, draws on his career experience to answer the question of whether the G7 is still relevant in today’s international order. Detailing a narrative of the G7’s history, confronting its challenges, and addressing its common criticisms, this paper deals with the alternatives (G20 and BRICS), as well as where the G7’s interests should lie in future relations with China and the African nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, G20, G7, BRICS, and International Order
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and Asia

14. Teaching Difficult Histories: Key Principles For Democracy

Author:: Stuart Austin
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This project report details the discussions and findings of the Teaching History Programme of the Ratiu Forum from 2023 to 2024, sitting under the Central and South-East Europe Programme. The workshops and conferences engaged with History teachers of post-communist Europe to address the challenges of politicised History curricula and explore methods for teaching difficult and dark pasts – facilitating and improving cross-border understanding within the region. The report concludes with recommendations for teachers generated by the workshops, geared towards open and democratic societies to counter political extremism and autocratic populism, as well as considering the direction for future workshops.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, History, Political Extremism, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:: Europe

15. Strengthening the Representation of Women in Diplomacy: Challenges and Policy Solutions

Author:: Marta Kozielska and Karen Smith
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Women’s representation in international diplomacy is alarmingly low. Though it varies across countries and regions, women’s underrepresentation in international diplomacy is pervasive. Despite a few women holding senior leadership positions in prominent institutions such as the World Trade Organization, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank, women’s representation within international organisations is unequal and only twenty percent of ambassadors worldwide are women. At the same time, research increasingly shows that diversity enhances decision-making capabilities, better addresses the needs of a diverse population, and embodies a commitment to the democratic principles of inclusion and tolerance. The LSE IDEAS Women in Diplomacy project was launched in 2022, and it leverages research, collaboration, and dialogue to address the misrepresentation and underrepresentation of women in this field. To better understand the barriers and enablers that affect women's progress within international diplomacy, the project team has thus far carried out twelve interviews with women who have held high-ranking diplomatic positions or have participated in international diplomatic processes. The interviewees have extensive experience within several sectors, including international trade, international security, international health, development, climate change, cultural diplomacy, and international criminal law. This report summarises key insights from the interviews, a review of the literature on women in diplomacy, and expert feedback. Women face many challenges when it comes to progressing and rising to the top within international diplomacy. This report makes recommendations to try to overcome these challenges, highlighting the significance of changes that need to occur at all levels: individual (centred on empowerment), community (focused on norms, behaviours, culture), and organisational (policy-driven structural change). The key recommendations for diplomatic services and international organisations are: create and implement tailored gender-equality plans which address issues regarding equal pay, parental leave and sexual harassment; collect and analyse gender-specific data to develop an evidence-based Equality, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) strategy; align internal and external gender-equality policies, including in collaboration with stakeholders; ensure fair and inclusive recruitment processes, especially for senior and leadership positions, while fostering mentorship; implement formal and informal career development support, including for ‘trailing partners’; rethink building design and accessibility, including accessible bathrooms and child-care facilities; and finally, establish social inclusion and gender equality as non-negotiable, making the benefits known to everyone within the organisation. The Women in Diplomacy project will use this initial report and its recommendations as the basis for further dialogue and discussion with women’s networks and international organisations around insights, barriers and solutions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Women, Representation, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

16. International Order Strategies: Past and Present

Author:: Aaron McKeil
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: At an important time in foreign policy planning, a new era of “strategic competition” widely noted by policymakers in Washington and allied capitals has produced a new wave of strategic thinking and evolving strategic practices aiming to maintain or modify “international order”. This collected research report aims to clarify how strategies for international order are being understood and formulated today, and how this strategic thinking and planning differs from past eras of strategic competition, toward an assessment of its policy implications today. Dr. Aaron McKeil convenes the International Orders Research Unit at LSE IDEAS. He is Academic Director of the LSE Executive MSc International Strategy and Diplomacy Programme at LSE IDEAS. He holds a PhD International Relations from the LSE. His forthcoming book with the University of Michigan Press explores the collapse of cosmopolitan globalism and rise of strategic competition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and International Order
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

17. The Decline and Rise of Hegemonic Narratives: From Globalisation and the 'Asia-Pacific' to Geopolitics and the 'Indo-Pacific'

Author:: Richard Higgott
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ideas and words have consequences. The 'Asia Pacific' as an economic understanding of region is giving way, some would say has given way, to the 'Indo-Pacific' as a geopolitical understanding of region. This paper explores the ideational and discursive consequences of this juxtaposition. It focuses on the shift from the theoretical and practical implications of the waning ideational hegemony of neo-liberal economics to the growing hegemony of geopolitical security concerns. It argues that just as a neo-liberal economic approach to the Asia Pacific over-hyped the success and benefits of globalisation as an absolute wealth aggregator and underplayed its negative externalities of mal-distribution and growing inequality, the privileging of the Indo-Pacific over-hypes the concept of security and underplays the effects of 'threat inflation' and the self-fulfilling possibilities of the privileging of forward leaning geo-political analysis. By way of a short case study, the paper shows how Australia’s strategic culture is now driven more by the US security coda of the Indo-Pacific rather than the economic coda of the 'Asia-Pacific'.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Globalization, Hegemony, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific

18. Crisis and adaptation of the Islamic State in Khorasan

Author:: Antonio Giustozzi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The paper discusses the conditions of the Islamic State in Khorasan and how its strategy and structures evolved after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan in August 2021. The author also assesses the potential for the Islamic State in Khorasan to recover strength and expand its activities again in the future, in the context of Taliban counter-terrorism.
Topic:: Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Khorasan Group
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

19. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia

Author:: Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
Topic:: Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia

20. The Return of History: Countering the Decline of Democracy in Europe

Author:: Stuart Austin
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This article summarises discussion held at the Ratiu Dialogues on Democracy conference, held in Cluj (Romania) on 15-16 June 2023. Contributors to the discussion were: Dr Radu Albu-Comanescu, Prof Christopher Coker, Dr Adrian-Gabriel Corpadean, Prof Sumantra Bose, Prof Christopher Dandeker, Prof Michael Burleigh, Dr Mois Faion, Dr Marcin Fatalski, Dr Alexander Gerganov, Maja Kurilić, Prof Dominic Lieven, John Lloyd, Bálint Magyar, Prof Slobodan Markovich, Dr Oana-Cristina Popa, Wojciech Przybylski, Richard Ralph CMG CVO, Nicolae Ratiu, Emilia Șercan, Louisa Slavkova, and Dr Eric Weaver
Topic:: Democracy, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Europe

21. China-US Competition in the Balkans Impact, regional responses, and larger implications

Author:: Ivan Lidarev
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This strategic update from Sotirov Visiting Fellow Dr Ivan Lidarev analyses the competition between China and the US in the Balkans, striving to answer three broad research questions about its impact on the region. The paper analyses how the China-US competition has shaped the strategic framework in which Balkan states operate; how Balkan nations have responded strategically to this competition; and what the long-term implications of the regional US-China competition are.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and United States of America

22. China’s Semiconductors Reflections on Sources and Solutions to an Expensive Problem

Author:: Jonathan Liebenau
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The semiconductor industry has been a renewed topic of political debate for over three years. Due to recent US sanctions on the most advanced semiconductors, the industry has quickly become another flashpoint in the competition between the US and China to dominate the 21st century’s strategic technologies. In this Strategic Update, Dr Jonathan Liebenau explains the development of the semiconductor industry in the context of China’s rise to become an increasingly capable technology power. China’s sustained efforts in industrial policy to cultivate a domestic innovation system coincided with Western firms’ offshoring strategies since the 1990s, transforming China into a large producer and consumer of semiconductors. While Taiwan and the West retained cutting edge chip design capabilities, Chinese firms such as Huawei and Hikvision have become competitive providers of mobile phones, surveillance equipment and related infrastructure services. Despite Washington and its partners’ conviction to constrain in China’s technological prowess, industrial policy initiatives such as the CHIPS Act will face an uphill battle when it comes to bringing manufacturing capacity back to Western economies. In this context, the UK must combine short term incentives with a longer-term strategic vision to remain competitive in one of the 21st century’s key strategic arenas.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sanctions, Strategic Competition, Production, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

23. Is Feminist Foreign Policy driving progress for women’s representation in diplomacy?

Author:: Caroline Green, Marta Kozielska, and Karen E. Smith
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Building on an October 2022 Women in Diplomacy online event, this Strategic Update assesses the implications of feminist foreign policy (FFP) adoption for driving progress on improving women’s representation in diplomacy. Tracking the spread of FFPs globally and the ministers responsible for implementation, this paper focuses on their potential for improving or strengthening the role of women in diplomacy – including in ambassadorial and cabinet foreign-policy roles.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Women, Feminism, and Representation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: One Year On

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update summarises a roundtable discussion held at LSE IDEAS in July 2023. Contributors to the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Stuart Austin, Professor Gordon Barrass, Professor Christopher Coker, Tom McKane, Hugh Sandeman, Susan Scholefield, and Peter Watkins. None of the content of the Strategic Update is attributable to any one individual. One year on from NATO’s Madrid 2022 summit, this Strategic Update address the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept and its implications for the future, especially regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. The paper addresses the misalignment between preparations for defence and the real state of its armed forces, the UK’s symbolic support for Ukraine versus its capability, the concepts of resilience and deterrence, and finally the future of NATO’s relationship with Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, Deterrence, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

25. China’s smart cities and the future of geopolitics

Author:: Valentin Weber
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, Valentin Weber explores Chinese scientific research and industry application of smart cities, with ‘city brains’. The geostrategic implications for these complex Chinese smart city construction projects outside of China – particularly surrounding surveillance and artificial intelligence – and a potential future ‘world digital brain’ must be considered by policymakers, even if we are far away from an eventual bifurcation of the global internet.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Surveillance, Artificial Intelligence, and Smart Cities
Political Geography:: China and Asia

26. Countering United Front Work: Taiwan’s Political Warfare System

Author:: Mariah Thornton
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This strategic update introduces the challenges posed by China’s united front work, which has significantly expanded due to unprecedented institutional elevation and support under Xi Jinping. Mariah argues that Taiwan—a country that has effectively resisted China’s united front activities for several decades—can serve as an instructive case for other democratic countries in institutionalising counter-interference operations. The briefing initially explores the origins of Taiwan’s political warfare system, its evolution from the martial law era to democratisation in the 1990s, and how this history informs the institution’s modern structure and operations. The information presented in this report was compiled during a period of fieldwork in Taiwan from late September to early November 2022, in which she interviewed dozens of political warfare officers as well as Taiwanese defence and security experts–a majority of whom have chosen to remain anonymous. In the conclusion, Mariah offers broad policy recommendations based on these findings that may be applicable to other countries experiencing united front work activities and or seeking to institutionalise counter-interference operations.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Propaganda, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

27. The Energy Crisis Requires a Military Solution that Compels NATO to Spend like Estonia

Author:: Leon Hartwell and Guillemette Guicherd
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this LSE IDEAS Strategic Update, the authors focus on the intimate relationship between the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. It is argued that although Western sanctions against Russia’s energy sector have been a welcome political statement, they have so far been inadequate. Moreover, in the absence of expanding Ukraine’s defence systems, supplying the country with critical equipment to rebuild its energy sector while it is under constant Russian bombardment has limited impacts. Consequently, the authors argue that to solve the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe, NATO and its allies need to “spend like Estonia.” Spending like Estonia would, among others, entail ramping up support for Ukraine to 1.1% of each member state’s GDP. Such an approach could help Ukraine to decisively win the war in 2023, and it would help to avert a potential energy crisis during the next winter. 
Topic:: NATO, Crisis Management, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Estonia

28. China’s Global Strategy as Science Fiction

Author:: William A. Callahan
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Xi Jinping is leading China in a new direction, but how are we to understand his global strategy? For most countries, to understand domestic and international politics we would analyse authoritative sources – leaders’ speeches, official documents and statistics, elite interviews and essays, and public opinion surveys. In the 2000s these methods worked well to probe Chinese politics. But since civil society and independent thought have been severely restricted under Xi, it’s necessary to go beyond such “factual” sources. To understand China’s global strategy, it’s best to read fiction, especially Chinese science fiction. This essay critically analyses Liu Cixin’s novels, The Wandering Earth and the Three Body Problem trilogy, to probe how Chinese sci-fi pushes us to think creatively about key topics: the relation of humans and technology, the relation of science and politics, and the relations between political communities, i.e. are we doomed to existential struggle, or can we engage with difference in creative and productive ways?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Grand Strategy, Novels, and Science Fiction
Political Geography:: China and Asia

29. China’s Provinces as Global Actors: Evidence from China-Africa Relations

Author:: Charlotte Lenz
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: With the launch in the early 2000s of China’s ‘Going Global’ Strategy, Chinese provinces became one group of actors participating in China’s South-South relations. In this Strategic Update, Charlotte Lenz investigates the role of Chinese provinces as foreign policy actors and explains their internationalisation strategies, challenging the prevalent perception of China as a unitary actor on the world stage. Drawing on evidence from Africa-China relations, the report identifies two strategies employed by Chinese provinces in pursuit of their foreign policy interests: (1) Formal and informal “twinning” as a collaborative model between central and local actors, wherein central actors design policies and provincial governments execute projects; (2) and “clustering” according to a sectoral logic of investment and diplomacy in which a certain Chinese province engages a certain foreign country. Despite ongoing bureaucratic centralisation under Xi Jinping, provinces continue to pursue their own internationalisation strategies to help meet local economic and employment targets. Understanding their agency, interests and limitations is thus key to deriving a better understanding of China’s evolving global presence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Internationalization
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

30. "Best and Bosom Friends" Putin, Xi and the Challenge to the West

Author:: Michael Cox
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, LSE IDEAS co-founder Professor Michael Cox highlights China as a significant player in the current tragedy occurring within Ukraine. Prof Cox traces the relationship between the People’s Republic and the USSR, through to the latter’s collapse into the Russian Federation, their formation of a strategic partnership against a unipolar post-Cold War order, and the rise in power of Xi Jinping alongside two international crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine. This Update finds that, whilst there are limits to their shared interests, China is politically committed to its Russian partner, and this status-quo leaves us in a more dangerous world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

31. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: Matching Ambition with Reality

Author:: Jonny Hall and Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update is based on a discussion hosted by LSE IDEAS in July 2022 on NATO’s 2030 Strategic Concept. Participants in the discussion included: General Sir James Everard, Gordon Barrass, General Sir Richard Barrons, Lt Gen Giles Hill, ProfessorChristopher Coker, Dr Luca Tardelli, Marissa Kemp, Tom McKane, and Peter Watkins. This Strategic Update reflects points made during the discussion, but no participant is in any way committed to its specific content, and the views expressed here are attributable solely to the authors. The Strategic Concept is the first since 2010 and was redrafted throughout a fundamentally different geopolitical and security context—following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This Update addresses the Concept’s recognition of necessary strategic realignment, with NATO’s widening in both its defence commitments and geographic focus on China, as well as its ambiguity in regards to practical military strategy, deterrence, and endpoint of the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

32. Russian Strategic Interest in Arctic Heats Up as Ice Melts

Author:: Robert Jr. McVey
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, Col Robert A. McVey Jr addresses why Russia has dramatically changed its Arctic strategy since 2007, committing significant military and fiscal resources to the region. McVey additionally describes the diplomatic, information, legal, and military tools of national power that Russia is craftily employing to pursue, promote, and protect its growing strategic economic interests in the Arctic, finding that the possibility of conflict between great powers remains ever present, regardless of the potential for cooperation or competition. Given that Russia’s Arctic strategy is primarily driven by economic interests, this paper makes five key recommendations for U.S. policymakers and military leaders, focusing on security cooperation programmes with NATO allies and the Arctic states.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Economics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia and Arctic

33. Turkey’s Involvement in the Libyan Conflict, the Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean and Drone Warfare

Author:: Buğra Süsler
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Dr Buğra Süsler’s Strategic Update explains Turkish foreign policy-making around a fragile Libya, highlighting its impact on power dynamics in the North Africa and the Middle East, as well as opening a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper addresses Turkey’s regional economic and political motives, the AKP’s increasingly hawkish use of hard power – especially the diplomatic and ethical implications of the Turkish military’s specialisation in drone warfare – and Ankara’s desire to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Libyan power-brokers key to post-civil war reconstruction.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Drones, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Libya, North Africa, and Mediterranean

34. China’s Digital Silk Road in Indonesia: Progress and implications

Author:: Zulfikar Rakhmat
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update discusses the progress of China’s Digital Silk Road in Indonesia, a major destination, in both its hard and soft aspects, as well as the potential impact of its implementation. Chinese companies are offering a response to Indonesia’s needs, but concerns exist, especially surrounding security and surveillance, that Indonesia’s increasing reliance on China could also further erode its democracy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, Surveillance, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

35. The ‘Kosovo Precedent’: Russia’s justification of military interventions and territorial revisions in Georgia and Ukraine

Author:: Valur Ingimundarson
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, Valur Ingimundarson explores Russia’s use of the ‘Kosovo precedent’, in order to instrumentalise its violation of international norms for geopolitical gain in the post-Soviet space. Ever since Kosovo’s 2008 unique and contested independence process, Russia has increasingly relied paradoxically on the Kosovo case to legally justify support for secession within, and now overt military expansionism into, post-Soviet territory: from its invasion of Georgia and support for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to the incorporation of Crimea into the Federation, its invasion of Ukraine, and current effort to absorb the Donbass region.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Military Intervention, Expansion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Georgia

36. What Putin’s War in Ukraine Means for the Future of China-Russia Relations

Author:: Björn Alexander Düben
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Björn Alexander Düben analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as Putin’s strategic blunder becomes increasingly difficult to deal with. The author finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation; this at the cost of the latter devolving to a client-state dependent on China to keep its economy afloat, whilst the PRC’s cautious state banks further diminish Russian hopes of financial cooperation in order to avoid secondary sanctions from the West.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Economy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

37. ASEAN: Seeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a glass darkly

Author:: Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ahead of the ASEAN special summit on 12-13 May in Washington D.C., Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid confronts the dichotomy between ASEAN’s chartered principles on territorial integrity and the disunity of individual member states’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The shadow of China looms large over the diminishment of ASEAN’s centrality, and the long-term dangers to the southeast Asia region from the conflict have been little considered. The Biden administration should emphasise the war’s impact on business and economics during the summit, as well as Russian irredentist support, to help ASEAN’s leaders see through the glass more clearly
Topic:: Economy, Business, Alliance, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Ukraine

38. NATO’s Resilience: The first and last line of defence

Author:: Johnny Hall and Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ahead of NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022, Hugh Sandeman and Jonny Hall confront the political challenges posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the alliance’s 2021 Strengthened Resilience Commitment, especially in creating collective standards when resilience remains the responsibility of individual member states. The authors find that resilience is a psychological mindset as well as a material factor, and NATO’s ‘whole-of-society’ approach should be framed within the concept of ‘deterrence by denial’ to potential threats. This Strategic Update is based on a discussion hosted by LSE IDEAS in January 2022 on ‘How can NATO define and develop practical objectives for enhancing the resilience of member states?’ Participants in the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Dr Tomas Ries, Susan Scholefield, Peter Watkins, Professor Gordon Barrass, General Sir Richard Barrons, Professor Christopher Coker, and Tom McKane. This Strategic Update reflects points made during the discussion, but no participant is in any way committed to its specific content, and the views expressed here are attributable solely to the authors.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

39. Decoding China’s “Common Prosperity” Drive

Author:: Xin Sun
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The term “common prosperity” has quickly risen to prominence in Chinese domestic politics amid an intense regulatory crackdown on China’s leading tech companies. However, this new policy agenda offers no clear road map or explicit policy instructions, giving way to various interpretations which while insightful do not depict the complete picture. In this strategic update, Xin Sun argues that the fundamental purpose of common prosperity is to support a new political order that keeps significant power in the hands of Xi and his closest allies and bolsters the supreme leader’s political survival in the coming decades.
Topic:: Regulation, Business, Domestic Policy, and Prosperity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

40. Strategies for Order in a Disorderly World

Author:: Aaron McKeil
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Aaron McKeil aims to clarify debates between realism and liberalism, as applied theories. While he finds that each position is not without merits, under scrutiny neither is found to offer a sufficient strategy for order in a disorderly world.
Topic:: International Relations, Realism, Liberalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

41. ASEAN’s Cambodian Stress Test

Author:: Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has faced an unprecedented challenge since the military junta seized power in a coup in Myanmar in 2020. Departing from its initial premise of ‘non-interference’ in the domestic policies of its member states, the regional group decided to ban Myanmar’s military representatives from meetings and summits. The five-point plan for consensus was supported by most members, however, Cambodia’s tenure as Chair of this organisation has brought the plan’s efficacy and longevity into question. At a time when Europe stands united against Russian actions in Ukraine, with a coherent and consistent response from states across the continent, can ASEAN do the same as it seeks to find a peaceful solution in the case of Myanmar?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Cambodia and Southeast Asia

42. Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East

Author:: Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

43. The Long Shadow of the Soviet Union: Demystifying Putin’s Rhetoric Towards Ukraine

Author:: Björn Alexander Düben
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: As tensions between Russia and Ukraine reach an almost-tipping point, Björn Alexander Düben analyses the historical and geopolitical rhetoric Putin and his government have deployed against the post-Maidan Ukraine since 2014. Asking, can this be seen as another Russian assertion of dominance in the post-Soviet region, could there be reasons closer to home, or why tensions across the border seem to once again be at a breaking point? From global oil prices to regime consolidation, an analysis into the words of Russia’s elites could unveil what future Europe is steering towards.
Topic:: Geopolitics, History, Conflict, Soviet Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

44. Can Chancellor Scholz Save the West? The New German Government and Global Geopolitics

Author:: Maximilian Terhalle
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the wake of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from the German Chancellorship, her successor, Olaf Scholz, inherits a Germany which has been lacking in strategic vision and an acute foreign policy for a considerable amount of time. Maximilian Terhalle asks, can Chancellor Scholz provide this vision for his country, and imbue NATO and the EU with a coherent and unified foreign policy in the face of threats from China, Russia, and a divided ‘West’?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, Olaf Scholz, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Germany

45. Education, Training and Capacity Building in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2021: Multilateral and Bilateral Ambitions Twenty Years On

Author:: Kenneth King
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The latest Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place in Dakar, Senegal in November 2021. Among the huge range of pledges and agreements, one of the most extensive was capacity building through scholarships, targeted training and people-to-people exchanges. In this Occasional Paper, Kenneth King analyses China’s pledges not just in the sphere of formal education, but across the many different sectors of China’s collaboration with Africa for the next three years. While the impact of COVID-19 can be seen in the reduction of some face-to-face opportunities in China, the extent of what is agreed to be implemented in Africa remains significant. Though these ambitious promises are agreed multilaterally with the whole of Africa, they are delivered bilaterally across the continent in more than fifty different country settings, reflecting how the Africa-China relationship remains strong after two decades of growing engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Education, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Training, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:: Africa and China

46. Winter is Coming: The Baltics and The Russia-Ukraine War

Author:: Leon Hartwell, Agnė Rakštytė, Julia Ryng, and Ēriks Kristiāns Selga
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this LSE IDEAS Special Report, the authors focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Baltics. The report highlights both collective and country-level impacts and responses to the conflict. It is argued that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the top supporters of Ukraine, not merely in terms of military aid, but also with regards to providing substantial diplomatic and humanitarian support during Ukraine’s darkest hour since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it is argued that this literal and metaphorical winter will be a key challenge, not only for Ukraine, but also for the Baltics. Given how closely the fate of Ukraine is intertwined with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the manner in which the Baltics and NATO respond to the winter could significantly influence the Russia-Ukraine war. A key strategic priority for the Baltics and NATO should be to promote resilience of everything from defense to energy security. Accordingly, the Report concludes with a variety of key policy recommendations aimed at the Baltics, EU and NATO.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Baltic States

47. Protect, Constrain, Contest: Approaches for coordinated transatlantic economic and technological competition with China

Author:: François Chimits, Ashley T. Lenihan, Jonathan Liebenau, Stephen Paduano, Anthony Vinci, and Peter Watkins
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The Biden Presidency offers opportunities for a renewed effort at formulating a coordinated allied approach to technological and economic competition with China. The latest report from China Foresight at LSE IDEAS provides a guiding framework for transatlantic coordination, and offers insights into key elements of future cooperation. While challenges abound, the opportunities for action prove just as great in number.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

48. UK Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission Final Report

Author:: LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission was convened in 2019 to establish a strategic direction for a new age of foreign economic policy, to understand the domestic ramifications of changes to the UK’s trade agenda, and to present recommendations that may best advance the UK’s priorities at home and abroad. The aim of the Report is to position the UK optimally in a changed 21st century global economy while maintaining the UK’s support for an open, multilateral trade and rules-based international system. The Report proposes a refined economic diplomacy framework that seeks to balance commercial openness with strategic domestic and foreign policy aims, broadly defined.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

49. Hedging by Default: The Limits of EU “Strategic Autonomy” in a Binary World Order

Author:: Richard Higgott and Simon Reich
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: For some time, international relations has trended in the direction of an American and Chinese dominated binary world order. While the Trump administration has been an accelerator not a cause of this trend between 2016 and 2020, not coincidentally the post 2016 era has also seen key EU figures move to develop a strategy of greater "strategic autonomy". This interest in strategic autonomy was, in no small part, a reflection of growing European distrust in the reliability of both China and, increasingly, the USA. The paper shows, in contrast to the Cold War era during which the EU was unambiguously aligned, how the EU now appears to have embarked on a hedging strategy, albeit implemented more by default than design. In its desire to defend its core interests the EU appears to lean to one side or the other on an issue by issue basis in at least seven key policy domains identified in the paper. This approach is seen to be the outcome of its dual desire to articulate the values of its much touted “Geopolitical Commission" at the same time as it tries to continue its traditional institutional commitment to multilateralism. The paper concludes that the ambiguity present in this endeavour to straddle the realist-liberal fence only serves to expose the limitations of the strategy.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

50. Sea Change? The Impact of the US Presidential Election on Central and South-Eastern European Security and Defence

Author:: Corina Rebegea, Wojciech Michnik, and Ivan Vejvoda
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This LSE IDEAS report assesses the likely impact of the new Biden administration on security and defence in the Black Sea, Balkan and Central European regions. The report finds grounds for optimism but also for managing expectations. President Biden's support for multilateral security approaches is likely to strengthen NATO and regional cooperation, particularly on Russia, but the region cannot expect to be the US' top priority. A return to values-based diplomacy under Biden, too, may put pressure on democratically-backsliding allies to whom his predecessor turned a blind eye.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

51. The Rise of Insurgent Europeanism

Author:: Luke Cooper, Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz, Mary Kaldor, Niccolò Milanese, and Iavor Rangelov
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Civil society in Europe and its attitudes towards the European project have changed dramatically in the past decade of multiple crises. This study mapped, tracked and monitored developments in European civil society from 2018 to 2020, revealing the nature and implications of these changes.
Topic:: Civil Society, Migration, Insurgency, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Europe

52. Changing Dynamics of Pak-US Relations and the Challenge of Soft Power

Author:: Moonis Ahmar
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: There is a history of ups and downs in Pak-US relations since early 1950s till today. From the period of alliances to ostensible hostility and indifference, the changing dynamics of Pak-US relations must be analysed from a pragmatic point of view where power, national interests, security and sovereignty matter. Furthermore, mistrust, suspicions, ill-will and paranoia still influence the political, security, economic and power dynamics of relations between Pakistan and the United States. This research follows the theory of soft power due to two main reasons. First, instead of being a ‘patron-client’ relationship, PakUS relations could be transformed by focusing on diplomacy, trade and technology instead of threats and coercion. Second, President Obama’s policy of ‘do more’ for Pakistan in combating terrorism in Afghanistan proved to be counterproductive as anti-Americanism surged in Pakistan. Overcoming the bitterness of the past in Pak-US relations will be a major challenge to the Biden-Harris administration. Moving forward in Pak-US relations will require political will, determination, prudence and trust from both sides. It is up to the leadership from both countries to foster trust and take confidence building measures which can transform their relations from patron-client to partners in progress. Shift from geopolitics to geoeconomics will ensure a win-win situation for both sides in the years to come.
Topic:: Economics, Violent Extremism, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

53. Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance

Author:: Luke Cooper
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Authoritarianism has become a major buzzword of global politics today. But the public debate has often focused on headline-catching cases of democratic decline. In the European Union (EU), Hungary and Poland, have tended to dominate discussion and critique with the implication that a modern-day ‘containment’ strategy might suffice to withstand the authoritarian advance. This brings dangers for how we think about politics in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE), involving a problematic reading of the region as a source of threat to democracy, rather than a theatre for its renewal. This new LSE IDEAS report, Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance, seeks to provide a wider regional contextualisation through the examination of Hungary and Poland in tandem with four other case studies in the region: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. The paper argues that the recent histories of these states provide a vantage point for reflection on the broader tendencies driving democratic decay globally. As the populaces of these states have shown tremendous civic energy in their willingness to resist authoritarianism, often in very large numbers, these case studies also point to the need to re-frame how this topic is discussed in the European public sphere. They suggest we should highlight how events in the region may be a harbinger of new opportunities for democratic advance. The snapshot comparative analysis of these states is undertaken through the frame of what the author, Dr Luke Cooper, calls authoritarian protectionism. This emphasises the importance of a politics of ethnonational partisanship to the contemporary challenge to democracy. In the cases examined in the report, authoritarian protectionism draws particular attention to the coherence that exists amongst such actors– despite the fact the examples are drawn from the left, centre and right of the political spectrum.
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Diversity, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Southern Europe

54. FOCAC at 21: Future Trajectories of China-Africa Relations

Author:: Chris Alden, Stephen Paduano, Mzukisi Qobo, Lukas Fiala, Iginio Gagliardone, Yu-Shan Wu, Gidon Gautel, and Lina Benabdallah
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The China-Africa relationship has continued to evolve over the last years. In light of the 8th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) that will take place later in 2021, the latest report from LSE IDEAS China Foresight brings together an international team of experts to shed light on emerging and consolidated areas of engagement between China and Africa that will likely shape the relationship in the years to come.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and China

55. Germany and the World of Yesterday

Author:: Leon Mangasarian
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the past six decades, the four pillars of Germany’s post-World War II security model were built and expanded: NATO, the European Union, trans-Atlanticism and free trade. This gave Germans their longest period of peace, making them fantastically rich as the world’s fourth biggest economy. Can Germany’s view of itself as a ‘big Switzerland’ be sustained? Leon Mangasarian argues not. The Biden presidency is providing Germans with a false sense of security, one which means that Germany will fail to build the appropriate policies and NATO alliances Germany desperately needs in order to build a grand strategy of its place in Europe. If that debate is not led by the chancellery then it needs to come from the Bundestag, from the country’s expanding think tank community, the universities and citizen fora.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Economy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

56. Coordination Failure: Risks of US-China competition in space

Author:: Gidon Gautel
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The 2020s will see a flurry of space activity, with both national and commercial programs picking up pace. Both the United States and China hold strong ambitions in telecommunications, lunar exploration, and beyond. However, currently fraught relations between the superpowers are unlikely to improve and may yet deteriorate further. On the one hand, competition between both countries may drive space activities and foster technological innovation. On the other, as both superpowers expand their activities in space, geopolitical tensions may increase the risk of harmful dynamics that could endanger the sustainable rollout of future programs. In this Strategic Update, Gidon Gautel seeks to outline and call attention to two high-risk flash points arising from the development of the US and China’s national space programmes and industries.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Space, Innovation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

57. President Biden’s Africa Policy

Author:: Rebecca Rattner and Bjorn Whitmore
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Joe Biden’s administration has committed to transforming America’s relationships across the globe. This period of reform presents the opportunity for a long-overdue reimagination of America’s policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this Strategic Update, Rebecca Rattner and Bjorn Whitmore argue a successful new relationship between America and Sub-Saharan Africa must rely on genuine partnership, support to local actors, and strong regional institutions. Their piece considers how to apply these principles in practice by examining the nuanced socio-political realities in East, West, Central, and Southern Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Africa, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

58. Twitter and Digital Diplomacy: China and COVID-19

Author:: Chris Alden and Kenddrick Chan
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update explores how official Chinese foreign policy entities have used Twitter as a public diplomacy platform during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the nature of their Twitter activity, and what this means for Chinese Twitter Diplomacy in the future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Social Media, COVID-19, Twitter, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

59. Facing A Strategic Endgame? The US and the Ambiguities of Strategic Thinking

Author:: Christopher Coker
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The disastrous strategic failures by the US in the past 30 years can be explained by its failure to understand what strategy actually is and how ambiguity lies at its heart. As a result it has stumbled from crisis to crisis. There is no reason to think that it is any better placed under Biden to address the challenges of a ‘post-hegemonic’ world, argues Christopher Coker.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Crisis Management, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

60. The Dragon Lands in Belgrade: The Drivers of Sino-Serbian Partnership

Author:: Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In recent years, the partnership between Serbia and China has been elevated to a historically unprecedented level. This partnership manifests itself through Chinese economic statecraft, technological partnership, security partnership, with political ties reaching an unprecedented degree during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as Vuk Vuksanovic examines, the future of this partnership will be dependent on the trajectory of China’s relationship with the West. As US-China relations are becoming adversarial, and as China’s relations with the EU are shaken, it will become increasingly difficult and risky for Belgrade to maintain its ties with Beijing. From ‘vaccine diplomacy’ to ‘debt-trap diplomacy’, this Strategic Update examines the Sino-Serbian partnership we are witnessing and what the future has in store for Serbian policymakers.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Partnerships, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Serbia

61. How Can America Challenge China's Political Ambitions in an Age of Deglobalisation?

Author:: Dimitri Zabelin
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: COVID-19 has accelerated the trend of deglobalisation and further entrenched China into the growing political and economic fort of Asia. This has made the US less effective at implementing policies aimed at curbing Beijing’s political ambitions and strength in the region. Washington must therefore make itself indispensable in Asia and employ strategies for bringing China into a global network that can collectively reign in the Asian giant’s growing influence.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

62. NATO and the Future Character of Warfare

Author:: Hugh Sandeman and Jonny Hall
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update is based on a discussion hosted by LSE IDEAS in June 2021 on ‘Warfare in the 21st Century: Views from NATO Members on the Future Character of Warfare’. Participants in the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Dr Tomas Ries, Colonel John Andreas Olsen, James Sherr, Gordon Barrass, General Sir Richard Barrons, Professor Christopher Coker, Karsten Friis, Marissa Kemp, Tom McKane, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, Professor Rolf Tamnes, and Peter Watkins. This Strategic Update reflects points made during the discussion, but no participant is in any way committed to its specific content, and the views expressed here are attributable solely to the authors.
Topic:: NATO, Science and Technology, War, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

63. Shaping the Indo-Pacific? Japan and Europeanisation

Author:: Yee-Kuang Heng
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this Strategic Update, Professor Yee-Kuang Heng investigates European power projection and presence in the Indo-Pacific, and its converging nature with Japan’s attempt to shape the regional environment in its favour. While UK threat perceptions have converged significantly with Japan’s since former Prime Minister David Cameron’s promulgation of a “golden era” in relations with China, managing expectations of Japan’s attempt to ‘shape’ and encourage Europeanisation remains crucial. But is it fair to conclude that Japan has been successful in encouraging a stronger European presence to help it shape the Indo-Pacific order?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Europeanization, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Japan, China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific

64. The Russian Diaspora in the Baltic States: The Trojan Horse that never was

Author:: Sarah Coolican
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Thirty years ago this month, the world shook as one of the only two Superpowers unexpectedly collapsed, creating enormous ramifications for the 25 million ethnic Russians who found themselves as non-titular citizens outside the borders of the newly formed Russian Federation. This ‘beached diaspora’ has been left marginalised and treated with fear, by the Baltic States in their nation-building policies and has left many to think of this community as ‘ripe’ for Russian influence. This Strategic Update will analyse Russian soft power policies and the development of ‘Russkii Mir’ as a tool for utilising this diaspora to further its foreign policy. Tools, which have been seemingly unaffected to a community of autonomy seeking citizens.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diaspora, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Baltic States

65. Getting Brexit Started: prospects for a new EU-UK partnership into the 2020s

Author:: Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on January 31 was a seminal moment in post-war history, and one that presents challenges and opportunities for both key parties. Yet far from being a single, isolated event, the departure derives from a much broader process of well over a dozen negotiations (a catch-all term used here for formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates about Brexit) between and within the UK and EU about their futures. With so many Brexit negotiations still underway, this paper underlines that the final form of the UK’s departure from the EU is not yet set in stone. Even with a withdrawal deal now ratified, there are multiple scenarios still possible: from a disorderly exit this year, through to the outside prospect of the transition being extended and a deep, comprehensive deal being concluded later in the 2020s. The stakes in play therefore remain huge and historic as both sides seek a new constructive partnership that can hopefully bring significant benefits for both at a time of global geopolitical turbulence.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

66. Biowar next? Security implications of the coronavirus

Author:: Karsten Friis
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: What are the possible short-, medium- and long-term implications of the coronavirus for global security and defence? In this Strategic Update, Karsten Friis investigates the pandemic's potential consequences for the world, its armed forces, the integration of Europe, US-China relations, as well as the concept and practice of 'war' more broadly. Although much remains uncertain, the disruptions which are beginning to emerge demand a reckoning with a changed world -- and world order.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, War, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

67. Europe in a Multipolar World

Author:: Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Power is diffusing from West to East and non-democratic powers are among those rising fastest. These changes have been in the offing for decades, but their effects are now increasingly manifest. Where does Europe stand within this emerging multipolar order? Is there a European ‘pole’ in the international system, and — if so — what is its contribution to the emerging order? These are important questions at the forefront of policymakers’ minds. Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke examine in more detail the position of Europe — and the EU — in a multipolar world.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, and International System
Political Geography:: Europe

68. From Russia With Love? Serbia's Lukewarm Reception of Russian Aid and Its Geopolitical Implications

Author:: Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: As the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic reached the Balkans, Serbia has energetically taken its partnership with China to the next level. This happened as Belgrade embraced China’s “mask diplomacy” campaign of supplying medical equipment to the countries affected by the pandemic. However, while Russia has supplied aid to Serbia to combat the pandemic, it has not received the same attention from the Serbian leadership and public the way China did. Therefore, the pandemic has proven to be a potent ‘revealer’ and reminder of the lack of substance and depth of differences in the Serbo-Russian partnership.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Serbia, and Balkans

69. China in One Country: interdependence or globalisation 'with Chinese characteristics'?

Author:: George Magnus
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Globalisation has faltered, and faces significant political challenges. In both the US and China, voices are calling for a reduction of economic interdependence between the two countries. In the US, this has taken the name of decoupling, in China, self-reliance. At the same time, China’s President, Xi Jinping has vocally championed globalisation in various global fora in recent years. Understanding of China’s systems of government and business, as well as its global interests, is lacking when compared to that of the US. In this Strategic Update, George Magnus investigates what is meant when China’s leadership speaks of globalisation, and what the implications of the answer are for the rest of the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

70. Technology in Conflict: how COVID-19 contact tracing apps can exacerbate violent conflicts

Author:: Jennifer Easterday
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this Strategic Update, Jennifer Easterday explores how a human security approach to COVID-19 tech tools would prompt tech companies, governments, and other actors to work with communities in ways that enhance their agency in the face of the pandemic to both reduce the risk of exacerbating conflict while maximizing the benefits of technology.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Conflict, Violence, Human Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

71. Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: Principles and Challenges

Author:: Linda Yueh
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Economic diplomacy in the 21st century will face a different set of challenges stemming from the changed global economy, US-China tensions, as well as a backlash against globalisation, among others. Therefore, the conduct of economic diplomacy, i.e., how a country manages its foreign economic relations including trade and investment, must adapt. The framework for economic diplomacy should seek to balance commercial openness with strategic foreign policy aims, broadly defined. It should situate a country within the 21st century global economy with its new drivers, promote a rules-based system in order to mitigate Great Power tensions, and recognise that all foreign economic policy is ultimately also domestic. There is no one general approach but there are several principles, each with their own challenges, for governments to consider, which is set out in this Strategic Update.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Investment, Trade, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

72. All Hands on Deck: the Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Need for US Leadership

Author:: Alexandros Zachariades
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Crisis has returned to the Eastern Mediterranean where Greek and Turkish economic interests, legal claims, and armed forces are squaring off. In this Strategic Update, Alexandros Zachariades explores how the two NATO powers arrived at the current confrontation, how the contest intersects with issues ranging from China to Libya, and how the international community can resolve the tension.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Greece, Libya, United States of America, and Mediterranean

73. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America

74. Myanmar's Search for Normalcy in an Abnormal World

Author:: Matthew B. Arnold
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: For much of the past seventy-plus years since its independence, Myanmar, often known as Burma, was an isolated military dictatorship plagued by seemingly perpetual civil war. Myanmar’s evolution from military dictatorship began in 2010 when a wide-ranging reform process began. While much has changed in the years since, much has not. Myanmar’s transition can best be understood as a “search for normalcy.” Since 2010, the sheer extent of the country’s dysfunction after decades of military dictatorship has overshadowed prospects for change as has the mass exodus of Rohingya in 2017 after a brutal campaign by the military. Amid these quandaries, it is useful to focus on what is feasible for the country in terms of transitioning to what can be understood as “normal”, or at least on a trajectory towards “normalization”. Framing Myanmar’s domestic prospects is also the reality that the last decade has been distinctly abnormal for the whole world. Reform in Myanmar means working methodically to untangle the messy, convoluted knot that is Myanmar’s governance, politics, and economics and being patient throughout the process. All things considered, Myanmar is progressing in important ways that should neither be taken for granted nor forgotten.
Topic:: Politics, History, Conflict, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

75. The War is Dead, Long Live the War? Counterterrorism after the Trump Presidency

Author:: Jonny Hall
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In his re-election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be ending America's 'endless wars'. In this Strategic Update, Jonny Hall examines this claim by reviewing the Trump administration's counterterrorism policies over the last four years, showing that although there has been recent concrete progress towards withdrawal, this does not constitute an ending the so-called 'forever wars'.
Topic:: War, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

76. Old Issues, New Threats: Mine Action and IEDs in Urban Environments

Author:: Dave Luke
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The nature of conflict is changing. Mine Action’s policy and practices are therefore coming under strain from the contemporary conflict trends of urbanisation and non-state armed groups (NSAG) using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This Strategic Update considers if there is a paradigm shift underway or if the current frictions are growth pains for this generation of humanitarian responders.
Topic:: Weapons, Landmines, and IED
Political Geography:: Global Focus

77. Axis of Convenience? Israel and China in a multipolar world

Author:: Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Despite being one of the most important allies of the United States in the Middle East, Israel has been building a new partnership with China since 2013. The repositioning is motivated by changes in the country’s strategic environment, its crisis in the relationship with the United States during the Obama years, and its economic and infrastructural needs. However, Israel is still deeply anchored in its alliance with the United States, which will impose limitations on how far its partnership with China can grow. For now, nevertheless, this relationship attests to the new geopolitical reality of the 21st century in which even the most ardent US allies, such as Israel, must hedge their bets and diversify their partnerships by engaging China.
Topic:: Partnerships, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and United States of America

78. China and COVID-19: a shock to its economy, a metaphor for its development

Author:: George Magnus
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The Chinese government’s draconian actions to control the coronavirus seem to be producing a remarkable economic contraction. As so many are unable to attend or resume work at the moment, the government’s palliative economic measures may gain little traction. Although the demand shock will eventually fade, other longer-term issues will surely endure. The supply shock will be less obvious but more corrosive. The government’s questionable conduct in managing the public health crisis has unveiled significant features about governance in Xi’s China that can be mapped on to China’s development. While this crisis is the biggest challenge Xi has faced, there is little doubt that he will survive it, champion the party’s role in the nation’s rescue, and feel emboldened to continue with his authoritarian governance. Yet it is this that, in the long run, will prove incompatible with China’s economic development ambitions.
Topic:: Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: China and Asia

79. Battleground Southeast Asia: China's Rise and America's Options

Author:: Charles Dunst
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Southeast Asia, while still a reservoir of goodwill for the US, has in recent years come increasingly under China's umbrella. In this Strategic Update, Charles Dunst analyzes China's expansion there, discusses Southeast Asians' American predeliction, and offers steps the US can take to "win back" the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, International Affairs, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

80. Making Sense of Technological Spheres of Influence

Author:: Valentin Weber
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The deterioration of Sino-American relations and the rise of novel forms of statecraft have given way to a worrying new feature of the international system: technological spheres of influence. In this Strategic Update, Valentin Weber explains how we have arrived at this novel geopolitical arrangement, where in the world the greatest contestation lies, and what the future of technospheres may hold.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and International System
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

81. Five years after Maidan: Toward a Greater Eurasia?

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This report, building on a workshop held at LSE IDEAS in December 2018 and supported by the Horizon 2020 UPTAKE and Global Challenges Research Fund COMPASS projects, brings together some of the UK’s foremost scholars on Russia, the EU and the post-Soviet space to evaluate the challenges and opportunities facing Russia’s 'Greater Eurasia’ foreign policy concept.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

82. Ireland-UK Relations and Northern Ireland after Brexit

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This report explores the impact of Brexit from an Irish perspective, explaining Europe’s role in improving Ireland-UK relations since 1970s and outlining the threat posed by Brexit to the political settlement in Northern Ireland. In April 2019, LSE IDEAS produced a second edition of this report, containing a new contribution from Michael Burleigh, important updates from Paul Gillespie and Adrian Guelke, and a refreshed introduction from Michael Cox.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Affairs, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Ireland and Global Focus

83. China in the 2020s: a more difficult decade?

Author:: George Magnus
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The conventional narrative is that China is, or will, by 2030, be the largest economy in the world. Based on commonly held expectations historically about prewar Germany, the USSR and Japan, greater humility would not go amiss. It is not preordained that past economic trends will continue, especially in view of a much compromised outlook for both China and the rest of the world in the 2020s
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

84. Refining Britain's Economic Diplomacy

Author:: Linda Yueh
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The EU referendum has thrown up many questions around globalisation as well as how to reposition Britain in the world after Brexit. The UK government’s professed intent to leave the European Union and negotiate its own free trade agreements means that Britain would be setting its own trade policies for the first time since 1973, and would need to explicitly set out the aims of British trade and associated foreign investment policies for the first time in four decades. With this in mind, clearly defining the UK’s economic diplomacy is crucial. Current global and domestic conditions are politically challenging. However, this offers an opportunity for the UK to take a lead in setting a helpful direction for the rest of the world, and ensuring that trade and investment policies benefit all in society.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. High Hopes, Long Odds: On the False Promises of Brexiteer Deals with the EU and US

Author:: John Ryan, Gabriel Felbermayr, Clemens Fuest, Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, and Daniel Stöhlker
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This report explores a No-Deal Brexit which would leave the UK economically, politically and diplomatically weakened and isolated. It further examines the relationships with its two main allies - the European Union and the United States - which would become more difficult and complicated.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, and United States of America

86. From Deng to Xi: Economic Reform, the Silk Road, and the Return of the Middle Kingdom

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This LSE IDEAS Special Report - with senior contributors from politics, journalism, and academia - looks at the internal causes and consequences of the return of the 'Middle Kingdom'. It explores the extent to which Deng's momentous economic reforms in 1978 have shaped modern China, what the country's expanded international role under Xi means, and who really makes Chinese foreign policy.
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

87. The Crisis of Global Politics: Perspectives from Continental Philosophy

Author:: Josefin Graef, Scott Hamilton, Benjamin Martill, Elke Schwarz, and Uta Staiger
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Can the work of the great European philosophers help solve Europe's problems today? This report explores what we can learn from Heidegger, Arendt, and Anders about how to tackle populism, climate change, and technological change
Topic:: Political Theory and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

88. The Future of the European Central Bank

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This report explores the need to make the ECB more transparent and democratically accountable to prevent the next Eurozone crisis. The ECB can justly claim to have held together a poorly-designed system in difficult circumstances, but its overlapping roles create potential conflicts of interest. What does this mean for the countries, companies, and banks that have grown to depend so much on the ECB?
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

89. Ireland-UK Relations and Northern Ireland after Brexit

Author:: Micheal Cox, Adrian Guelke, and Paul Gillespie
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This report explores the impact of Brexit from an Irish perspective, explaining Europe’s role in improving Ireland-UK relations since 1970s and outlining the threat posed by Brexit to the political settlement in Northern Ireland
Topic:: International Affairs and Brexit
Political Geography:: Ireland

90. Making the 'Special Relationship' Great Again?

Author:: Tim Oliver and Michael Williams
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Even before Donald Trump won the US presidential election he left an indelible mark on US politics and on views of the US in Britain and around the world. his victory means those views will now have to be turned into policy towards a president many in Britain feel uneasy about. Current attitudes to Trump can be as contradictory and fast changing as the president-elect’s own political positions. They can be a mix of selective praise and horror. he has in the past been criticised by British political leaders from the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson to the Mayor of london Sadiq khan. In early 2016 a petition of over half a million signatures led Parliament to debate (and reject) banning Trump from entering the Uk. Yet he has also drawn the support of politicians such as UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and polling showed support amongst the British public for his 2015 proposal to ban Muslims from entering the US. After the presidential election British ministers were quick to extend an olive branch. Johnson himself refused to attend a hastily convened EU meeting to discuss Trump’s election. Instead he called on the rest of the EU to end its collective ‘whinge-o-rama’.
Topic:: International Relations, Political stability, Post Truth Politics, and Populism
Political Geography:: Britain and America

91. Making the ‘Special Relationship’ Great Again?

Author:: Tim Oliver and Micheal Williams
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s election poses uncomfortable questions for Britain about the future of the UK-US ‘Special Relationship’.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

92. The UK's Foreign, Defence, and Security Policy After Brexit

Author:: Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In November 2017 the Global Strategies Project at LSE IDEAS brought together a group of British politicians, senior officials, and other experts at Ditchley Park to discuss options for the UK’s foreign, defence, and security policy after Brexit. This report summarieses that discussion, which covered the UK’s future relations with Europe, the US, and China, as well as the relationship between policymakers and the British public.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Europe

93. Enhancing Decision Making in Foreign and Security Policy

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In late 2016 thirty British politicians, officials and former officials, officers, and experts met to discuss ways in which the UK foreign policmaking leaves the country vulnerable to strategic errors.
Topic:: Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

94. Hybrid Warfare in the Middle East

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This report considers the hybrid warfare techniques of Daesh, Al Qaeda, the Taleban, and Iran, and makes specific suggestions on how the UK and other Western countries can better counter this threat. The report is sistilled from discussions with senior British officials, academics, and current practitioners in the media, strategic communications, and cyber security
Topic:: Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

95. New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The future of the transatlantic relationship is rarely out of the headlines in Europe or North America. Despite the closeness, the relationship faces – as it has always done – new and familiar challenges.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. The Greek Euro Tragedy

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: On 4 February 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly and suddenly cancelled acceptance of Greek bonds as collateral for liquidity funding unless Greece obeyed the Troika agreement. The ECB’s irresponsible and incompetent actions call into question their respect for the Greek government’s attempts to resolve its debt crisis in a sustainable way. The ECB may or may not have good reasons to cut off Greece, depending on your point of view, but it is clear that such a move would be political. A central bank that is supposed to be the lender of last resort and guardian of financial stability would be taking a deliberate and calculated decision to undermine the Greek banking system. The ECB is now seen in some quarters as arrogant, unaccountable and authoritarian.1 This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability which has contributed to considerable difficulties for the stability of the Eurozone.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Greece

97. ASEAN: In or Out? No Way…Not yet?

Author:: Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: While the close British decision to get out of the European Union was made in a referendum a while ago on 23 June, there is still the feeling in the UK: What have we done? Where do we go? How do we get there? Questions that should have been asked at the referendum, rather than after it. But there you are. When raw emotion and shallow argument reign, profound decisions are made without proper reflection or preparation. Since then the question has also been raised whether or not such a thing could occur in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It won’t but then again it may. First of all, let’s be clear. It is not likely there will ever be such a surplus of democracy in ASEAN, whether among individual member states or as a group, that there could be an ‘In or Out’ referendum like the one which resulted in Brexit.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

98. Brexit: What Happens Next?

Author:: Tim Oliver
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: A British withdrawal from the EU would be a process not an event. This Strategic Update sets out the nine overlapping series of negotiations that would be triggered and the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions would take, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.
Topic:: Brexit
Political Geography:: Britain and European Union

99. A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU

Author:: Tim Oliver
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: A vote by the British people to withdraw from the EU – also known as a ‘Brexit’ – will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. Opinion polls show that a vote to withdraw is a distinct possibility. The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines how likely a Brexit is and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.
Topic:: Geopolitics and Brexit
Political Geography:: Britain and European Union

100. The Greek Euro Tragedy

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability has contributed to the instability of the Eurozone.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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