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  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran is taking advantage of the crises created by ISIS and the Arab Spring to advance its land route project from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. The American withdrawal from Syria will remove one of the obstacles that stand in Iran’s path, yet Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent the establishment of this route.
  • Topic: Security, Military Strategy, Economic Cooperation, Strategic Stability
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, Mediterranean
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Joshua Krasna
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, Annexation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Syria
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.
  • Topic: Civil War, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Islamic State, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 04-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Iranian “corridor” is a central project for the mullahs in Iraq and Syria, involving a highway which would connect Tehran with Damascus.
  • Topic: Infrastructure, Hegemony, Strategic Stability, Roads
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, Hezbollah
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Conflict, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Islamic State, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Lazar Berman
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Minorities, Islamic State, Conflict, Autonomy
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.
  • Topic: Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Emmanuel Navon
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Foreign Interference, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Aiman Mansour
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The recent protests in Iran are very important because they point to the Iranian leadership’s economic failures, and the consequent anger harbored by a considerable number of Iranian citizens over their country’s investments in far-off countries such as Lebanon and Syria. These investments, they feel, are at their expense
  • Topic: Social Movement, Leadership, Protests, Oppression
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria
  • Publication Date: 02-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, ISIS
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Affairs
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Affairs
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran’s actions in Syria.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Deterrence
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Don’t congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: “Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.
  • Topic: Civil War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Drones, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman, Nir Boms
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel may soon face a dilemma. The “arrangement” with Russia as to the future of Syria may stave-off an Iranian presence but will pose an existential danger to the groups of rebels near the border – groups which have worked closely with the IDF to prevent direct friction with hostile elements on the line of contact. It is vital that the solutions to this challenge demonstrate to future partners that Israel does not turn its back on those who have assisted it facing a common threat.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 07-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a weakened and truncated Arab state, along with an ongoing Israeli effort to deter the masters of this project from acts of aggression.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Conflict, Borders, Peace
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 07-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: How the wise use of force facilitates diplomatic processes in the Israel-Egypt-Hamas and Israel-Russia-Syria triangles
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hamas
  • Political Geography: Africa, Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria, Egypt
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 08-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, Borders
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Cohen Yanarocak
  • Publication Date: 08-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Turkey is turning northern Syria – Jarabulus and Afrin – into the “Turkish Republic of Northern Syria,” just as it has turned northern Cyprus into a Turkish protectorate through military and economic domination.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Cyprus
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Micky Aharonson
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The US is failing to appreciate the significance of the leverage points that the Syrian arena provides for Russia. This leverage allows Russia to exact a heavy toll for the measures the US is demanding.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Micky Aharonson
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Repatriation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict , Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The downing of a Russian plane by Syrian artillery after an Israeli strike proves how vital it is to maintain open lines of communications between Israel and Russia. The IDF may have to exercise more restraint, but it will still do what it must.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Communications, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Omer Dostri
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Russia’s accusations against Israel that it is responsible for the downing of its plane is meant primarily for a domestic audience. Until now, Russia has made sure to behave with restraint in the Syrian arena and to operate based on its strategic interests. One of those interests is the Russian desire to minimize Iranian involvement in Syria.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 11-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Fragile States, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.
  • Topic: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Economic Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan
  • Author: Joshua Krasna
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, JCPOA
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: It would have been better for the Kurds to settle for strengthening their autonomous region in Iraq rather than challenging their stronger neighbors.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Conflict, Independence
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan