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  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran is taking advantage of the crises created by ISIS and the Arab Spring to advance its land route project from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. The American withdrawal from Syria will remove one of the obstacles that stand in Iran’s path, yet Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent the establishment of this route.
  • Topic: Security, Military Strategy, Economic Cooperation, Strategic Stability
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, Mediterranean
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Iranian media claimed that millions filled the streets on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. The opposition, however says that fewer people participated. Iran’s nuclear program will not protect the regime against the people’s antipathy.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Economic Policy, State Media
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Joshua Krasna
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, Annexation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Syria
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The attempted resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif didn’t come as a complete surprise. It reflects the utter supremacy of the Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian political sphere.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Micky Aharonson, Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country’s civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Yemen
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.
  • Topic: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Appeasement
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 04-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Iranian “corridor” is a central project for the mullahs in Iraq and Syria, involving a highway which would connect Tehran with Damascus.
  • Topic: Infrastructure, Hegemony, Strategic Stability, Roads
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, State Sponsored Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: In the remote deserts of western Iraq, Iran’s servants are busily at work preparing a new front against Israel.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Missile Defense
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, Hezbollah
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman, Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel needs to be prepared for potentially dramatic consequences, including rapid deterioration towards confrontation on all Israel’s borders. Resilience and readiness to act can serve to deter provocations by Iran’s proxies. Ultimately, only a credible military threat from Israel will indicate to friend and foe alike that in a showdown, Iran will be forced to back down.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel’s government must nurture a spirit of unity and national purpose by building a policy consensus as broad as possible. This is necessary both in preparation for likely combat operations against Iran and its proxies, and in order to respond wisely to the American peace plan and to intelligently manage conflict with the Palestinians.
  • Topic: Nationalism, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, United States of America
  • Publication Date: 07-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The US, Europe and Israel can force a modification in Erdoğan’s conduct on a wide range of issues, including his duplicity on Iran, support for Hamas in Gaza, subversion in Jerusalem, intervention in Libya, aggression towards Cypriot gas explorations, threats to Kurds of Rojava, and repression at home.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Leadership, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 07-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: It is complicit in Hizballah’s terrorism and subversion, in Europe and the US.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, State Sponsored Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign must not be curtailed before Iran’s leaders truly have no choice but to capitulate to Western demands.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus must encourage the US to assert a higher military and diplomatic profile as a counterweight to Turkish pressures, Russian and Iranian ambitions, and Chinese inroads.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Military Strategy, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, North America, Egypt, Cyprus, United States of America
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: American withdrawal from the Middle East must be accompanied by steps that reduce the general impression of a weak US going home in defeat. President Trump should bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: More than a decade of civil strife has opened up the region for the escalating state-to-state conflict.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 09-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Rivalry, Appeasement
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Chinese investment in Iran would help Tehran withstand US economic pressures, and exacerbate the Western crisis with Iran
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Investment, Economic Diplomacy, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Escalating tensions with Iran should be a warning that Tehran’s strategy of training and arming proxy terror groups throughout the Middle East is not being countered aggressively enough.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Conflict, Hezbollah, State Sponsored Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Alliance
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Islamic State, Conflict, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: If it weren’t for the Iranian regime’s distress, it might decide to tread water until US President Trump was out of office. But its resources are limited, and the possibility that the ayatollahs might attack Israel out of desperation is very real.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Will the people succeed in undermining the Iranian plan to spread power across the region?
  • Topic: Social Movement, Fragile States, Protests, Revolution
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.
  • Topic: Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Emmanuel Navon
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Foreign Interference, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Aiman Mansour
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, Regional Power
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The IDF is building an impressive capacity to crush Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian assets in future fighting. But it must not neglect defense of the periphery or go soft on its ethos and fighting spirit.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The recent protests in Iran are very important because they point to the Iranian leadership’s economic failures, and the consequent anger harbored by a considerable number of Iranian citizens over their country’s investments in far-off countries such as Lebanon and Syria. These investments, they feel, are at their expense
  • Topic: Social Movement, Leadership, Protests, Oppression
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 02-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: What needs “nixing” is not the JCPOA – a piece of paper – but the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, JCPOA
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Publication Date: 02-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, ISIS
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Might more be done to advance an Iranian counter-revolution? Uri Lubrani certainly thought so, and he was not naive.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Regime Change, Governance
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Affairs
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran’s actions in Syria.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Deterrence
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Don’t congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The French president’s visit to served to demonstrate Macron’s importance as a dynamic and proactive European player, and as a partner in the effort to curb Iran’s strategic ambitions.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, France
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
  • Topic: Intelligence, Military Strategy, Conflict, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel’s revelation of Iran’s nuclear deception aims to show the world that the 2015 deal with Iran must indeed be renegotiated in the interests of global peace.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, Economic Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Many criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unveiling of a secret Iranian nuclear archive as “nothing new” and “a performance.” But there was plenty new in his presentation, and it will have far-reaching implications.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Leadership
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Iranian provocation on the Golan Heights failed, and the Iranians would do well to cut their losses now and end their confrontation with Israel.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel’s intelligence branches need to understand what was destroyed and then identify where and how Iran intends to push its military build-up forward – and neutralize that as well.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Drones, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel must make it clear to Hamas that letting Islamic Jihad trigger another widespread escalation does not serve its interests or its continued existence.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Conflict, State Funding, Hamas
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran enjoyed and benefited from the moment when the Arab world was at its most fragmented, and the West at its most rudderless.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The deep “psychological asymmetry” employed by Hamas and Fatah as a strategic weapon against Israel is working. How to handle this? Here are five strategies, including this: Don’t be embarrassed by Israel’s strength. Admit to it. Flaunt it. Better shock-and-awe than shrink-and-whimper.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hamas
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: If recruiting a disgraced former official with no access to updated information is the best Iran’s spymasters could do, Israel’s intelligence superiority is in no danger.
  • Topic: Intelligence, Military Strategy, Infrastructure, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 07-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in the border area.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Conflict, Borders
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Omer Dostri
  • Publication Date: 08-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The recent agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production is a significant blow to Iran. America seeks either regime change or a new nuclear deal on better terms.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Oil
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 08-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Despite many Israelis’ growing frustration, there are good reasons why the IDF has yet to use all of its force to combat the growing terrorism from the Gaza Strip, including the fact the IDF is focused on the northern front where Israel faces its main enemy: Iran.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 08-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, Borders
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Omer Dostri
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran’s goal in its activity in the Western Sahara is to subvert Morocco, a moderate Sunni state, as part of the Iranian regime’s policy of spreading the Shi’ite revolution.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Africa, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Morocco, Western Sahara
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: On restoring relations between Tehran and Washington. If the protests in Iran expand, Trump will be able to exert greater pressure on Tehran.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it’s not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Joshua Krasna
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: In the Mideast of today, the US is largely irrelevant, when it is not disruptive, and is certainly not providing clear leadership. With the current disarray in DC, it does not look like this will change any time soon.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: While Israel should steer away from overt identification with internal challengers in Iran, this is the time to urge the US. and other like-inded nations to ratchet up the pressure on the regime, explaining to the Iranian people the growing cost of their leaders’ ambitions.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Hegemony, ISIL, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Egypt
  • Author: Yossi Mansharof
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict , Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: In the absence of a clear American or Turkish determination to confront Iranian encroachment, only Israel has the power to stop it.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel must continue to take the offensive against Iran’s nuclear program, without reliance on international inspectors.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Omer Dostri
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Russia’s accusations against Israel that it is responsible for the downing of its plane is meant primarily for a domestic audience. Until now, Russia has made sure to behave with restraint in the Syrian arena and to operate based on its strategic interests. One of those interests is the Russian desire to minimize Iranian involvement in Syria.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Foreign Interference
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel’s actions (or at times, inaction) concerning the future of the Gaza Strip cannot be isolated from the broader context of the struggle over the entire region’s balance of power. Gaza’s dependence on Egypt, and perhaps Cyprus, constitutes a common interest of the “camp of stability” in the Middle East, to curb the influence of both Turkey and Iran, and to deny Abu Mazen the baneful position of a spoiler.
  • Topic: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, Cyprus
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Amidst violent events, it is easy to be tempted to seek decisive “solutions” to the Palestinian problem(s) – in both the PA areas and in Gaza – through drastic military action, or through equally dramatic concessions. But given the lessons of recent history, as well as the unpredictable nature of regional events, it makes sense to adhere to “conflict management” and piecemeal arrangements. This is not as a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but as a rational choice in irrational circumstances; even more so when the Iranian challenge looms larger than ever on Israel’s immediate horizons. Patience has its own merits.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 10-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Saudi Crown Prince isn’t a democrat or a strategic savior, but don’t give the evil leaders of Turkey and Iran a victory by weakening US-Saudi ties.
  • Topic: Human Rights, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Emmanuel Navon
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Despite the fascist roots of Matteo Salvini’s “Liga” party, upgrading relations with the current Italian government serves the national interest because it shall help Israel export it’s natural gas to Europe as well as break the European consensus on Iran and on Jerusalem’s status.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Gas, Political Parties, Economic Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Iran, Turkey, Russia and other bad actors threaten Western and Israeli security in this strategic zone.
  • Topic: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Mediterranean
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Economic Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan
  • Author: Joshua Krasna
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, JCPOA
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Lazar Berman
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Shi’ite militia threat isn’t a mere thought exercise about a worst-case scenario. Iranian-controlled Popular Mobilization Forces leaders have already threatened Israel only miles from Israeli homes.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Religion, Military Strategy, Conflict, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Jonathan Spyer
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Western hopes that Iran will moderate and “engage” with the international community following the faulty 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) have been gradually replaced with apprehension. More voices in the international community are joining Israel in expressing growing concern about Iran’s policies. While Iran seems to be abide by the JCPOA, it resists expanding the scope of inspections, continues its nuclear research and development (for example upgrading centrifuges) and continues to make progress on its long-range missile program. Recently it conducted a test of a missile designed to carry nuclear warheads. Moreover, Iran’s involvement in the region attests to its hegemonic plans, defying the notion, propagated by its propagandists, that it is a status quo power acting defensively. Rather, Iran is following its Persian imperial instincts that are reinforced by Muslim jihadist impulses. It already controls four Arab capitals: Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa; its Shi’ite militias and proxies are fighting in Iraq, Syria and Yemen and engaging in ethnic cleansing; and it is on the verge of solidifying the Shi’ite corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. Israel tries to capitalize on the new widespread global apprehension about Iran and a new American president who is not committed to the JCPOA to bring about the cancellation of the 2015 nuclear accord or its renegotiation, and the reinstating of the sanctions regime. Yet, these goals are difficult to attain and not useful in preventing a nuclear Iran.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Denuclearization, JCPOA
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: The Iranian situation is both more urgent and more malleable than the almost hopeless situation with North Korea.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North Korea, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Yaakov Amidror
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: A few seemingly unrelated incidents that took place across the Middle East this week all seem to point out that much of the regional unrest can be traced back to Iran, which is backing Shiite forces from Pakistan to Syria. That is unlikely to change.
  • Topic: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon
  • Author: Uzi Rubin
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: A recently disclosed ruling by Iran’s supreme leader caps the range of Iran’s missiles at 2,000 kilometers, a distance that threatens Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt but doesn’t threaten Western Europe. Practically speaking, this ruling is neither new nor truthful. Europe has a good reason to be concerned.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Missile Defense
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: David M. Weinberg
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: No duplicitous decrees by supreme or smiling ayatollahs should deflect our attention from Tehran’s dangerous moves.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Efraim Inbar
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: If the United States wants to disengage from the Middle East it should do so with a bang. The address for such a forceful demonstration is clear: the Iranian nuclear program.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Leadership, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America