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1. From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries

Author:
Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Recent developments in the operationalization of mutual military buildups raise some questions about the findings of the quantitative literature on the association of mutual military buildups (MMB) and militarized dispute (MID) onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads. We use the novel data to evaluate that relationship, working within the Steps to War explanatory framework. The Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are puzzles for the framework, since on the one they have had a frequent presence of the Steps to War but have far fewer wars than we would expect. Our analysis indicates that despite that puzzling incongruity the Greece - Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are good fits for the Steps to War, except when it comes to the role of mutual military buildups. We find indicators that while the other factors of Steps to War have a positive combined association with MID onset, the inclusion of mutual military buildups renders such an association statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we do find indicators that mutual military buildups may contribute to the transition from Lesser to Severe Rivalry, as per the Steps to Rivalry. Finally, the dyads reach infection periods that make war more likely as per the Steps to War. But many expected wars do not take place. We posit two possible explanations for future research: deterrence, or major power managerial coordination.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Political Science, Ottoman Empire, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

2. Making a Case over Greco-Turkish Rivalry: Major Power Linkages and Rivalry Strength

Author:
Deniz Sert and Konstantinos Travlos
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The goal of the paper is to explore how the intensity of the Greco-Turkish rivalry (in the 19th and 20th centuries) was affected by variation in the intensity of rivalries between major powers that have political and military connections to Greece and Turkey. By comparing the effect of relevant major power rivalries with a battery of alternative domestic, dyadic, military, and political variables, the article serves as a deductive evaluation to see how important, if at all, variation in the volatility of intensity of the relevant major power rivalries is on the Greek-Turkish rivalry intensity volatility.
Topic:
History, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

3. The Migration/Refugee Crisis and the (Un/Re) Making of Europe: Risks and Challenges for Greece

Author:
Dimitris Keridis
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The migration and refugee crisis that erupted in 2015 landed recession riven Greece with a series of humanitarian, political, social, and financial as well as foreign policy and security challenges. Following a near disastrous open-borders policy steeped in leftist ideological parochialism, Athens aligned itself closely with Germany in support of the EU-Turkey deal that drastically reduced the human flows from Turkey into the EU and invited NATO naval forces to help monitor the implementation of the agreement. This paper is structured around two parts: the first part describes the immigration and refugee crisis itself, from a global, European and national-Greek perspective; the second part analyzes the risks to and policy responses of Greece and how they relate to the country’s overall geostrategic position, at a time when Europe is being redefined as it struggles to respond to a multitude of challenges.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, Migration, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

4. The Greek Crisis and Its Repercussions on the Balkan Neighbourhood: The End of the Myth

Author:
Marilena Koppa
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article explores the role of Greece in the Balkans since the end of Communism and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis that followed. Since the beginning of the 1990s, while Greece failed to accomplish its vocation at the political level, at the level of the economy the country acted as an important regional actor. The article examines the dynamics of the Greek crisis on the Balkan economies and analyses the major challenges for Greece in this new reality. At the same times, it tries to identify the triple crisis faced currently by Greece: at the level of credibility and status, at the level of mediation between the region and the EU and, finally, at the level of the gradual peripherisation of the country.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Migration, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Balkans

5. Stalled Europeanization in Post-Sovereignty EU? Greek Politics in Hard Times

Author:
Kostas A Lavdas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This paper focuses on stalled Europeanization as a field of practices, institutions and discourse connected with a process of ambivalent reform. The absence of a consensual national strategy of adaptation to a particularly challenging environment, i.e., participation in the eurozone, produced dramatic consequences when confronted with the financial crisis after 2009. It is argued that the country’s sluggish Europeanization reached a critical turning point in 2009 when the urgency of the crisis brought to the fore a number of issues and vulnerabilities. Asymmetric policy adjustment – limited in some areas, extensive in others – has been the combined result of perceived necessity, insufficiently designed and implemented reform packages, party-political repositioning, and plain politicking. Europeanization in Greece became a stalled process in 2015; restarting the stalled process since 2016 leads to ongoing but sluggish Europeanizing interactions, involving shifts in the roles of domestic politics, institutional traditions and interest groups while reshaping the patterns of political contestation.
Topic:
Politics, Sovereignty, Reform, and Europeanization
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

6. When the Greek Political System Clashed with Europe: Why the Greek Sovereign-Debt Crisis is Taking so Long to End

Author:
Constantine A. Papadopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The central argument of this essay is that, in order to understand the reasons behind the Greek economy’s inability to recover sooner from its 8-year recession, analysis must focus on the institutional, political and cultural traits of the country rather than take a primarily “economistic” approach and simply blame “excessive austerity” and/or the euro. In fact, it will be argued that Greece’s positive performance under the euro (until government actions derailed the economy) is generally underappreciated, suggesting that if the country’s institutional weaknesses are addressed, the economy will grow. If they are not, the country’s long-term economic potential will almost certainly remain unfulfilled.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Financial Crisis, Reform, Global Financial Crisis, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

7. Structure, Agents and Discourse in Managing Economic Crises: The Case of Greece, 2009-2017

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article focuses on the discursive frames used by policy entrepreneurs in Greece as they attempted to deal with the 2009 crisis and analyses the role played by discourse in handling the crisis’ consequences. Adopting a historical institutionalist framework, I argue that ineffective policy outcomes can be attributed to a path- dependent logic enshrined in the country’s political economy structures following the transition to democracy post-1974. Moreover, the reaction of policy entrepreneurs to the crisis was reinforced by their discursive logic of action, itself embedded in the state’s institutional matrix. Procrastination, a refusal to face an uncomfortable reality and politics as usual colours the response of Greek actors to the country’s biggest crisis in recent memory.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Greece

8. When the Greek Political System Clashed with Europe: Why the Greek Sovereign-Debt Crisis is Taking so Long to End?

Author:
Constantine A. Papadopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The central argument of this essay is that, in order to understand the reasons behind the Greek economy’s inability to recover sooner from its 8-year recession, analysis must focus on the institutional, political and cultural traits of the country rather than take a primarily “economistic” approach and simply blame “excessive austerity” and/or the euro. In fact, it will be argued that Greece’s positive performance under the euro (until government actions derailed the economy) is generally underappreciated, suggesting that if the country’s institutional weaknesses are addressed, the economy will grow. If they are not, the country’s long-term economic potential will almost certainly remain unfulfilled
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Greece

9. Stalled Europeanization in Post-Sovereignty EU? Greek Politics in Hard Times

Author:
Kostas A Lavdas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This paper focuses on stalled Europeanization as a field of practices, institutions and discourse connected with a process of ambivalent reform. The absence of a consensual national strategy of adaptation to a particularly challenging environment, i.e., participation in the eurozone, produced dramatic consequences when confronted with the financial crisis after 2009. It is argued that the country’s sluggish Europeanization reached a critical turning point in 2009 when the urgency of the crisis brought to the fore a number of issues and vulnerabilities. Asymmetric policy adjustment – limited in some areas, extensive in others – has been the combined result of perceived necessity, insufficiently designed and implemented reform packages, party-political repositioning, and plain politicking. Europeanization in Greece became a stalled process in 2015; restarting the stalled process since 2016 leads to ongoing but sluggish Europeanizing interactions, involving shifts in the roles of domestic politics, institutional traditions and interest groups while reshaping the patterns of political contestation.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

10. Sisyphean Tactics and Manoeuvring of the Greek Debt Crisis Post-2015: A Dead-end Crisis Management Paradigm

Author:
Nicolas Papanastasopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The field of crisis management in public policy (both in its internal and external aspect) is currently facing a number of essential and important challenges with theoretical, institutional and political dimensions. This paper aims at deconstructing existing limitations by bringing together the necessary inter-disciplinary elements. The paper attempts to analyze Greek public policy and the government’s capacities to cope with a turbulent (geo)political environment. At the same time, an effort is made to analyze the way the Greek political personnel managed the debt crisis. In this context, the discussion combines both theoretical and empirical approaches.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Greece

11. The Greek Crisis and Its Repercussions on the Balkan Neighbourhood: The End of the Myth

Author:
Marilena Koppa
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article explores the role of Greece in the Balkans since the end of Communism and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis that followed. Since the beginning of the 1990s, while Greece failed to accomplish its vocation at the political level, at the level of the economy the country acted as an important regional actor. The article examines the dynamics of the Greek crisis on the Balkan economies and analyses the major challenges for Greece in this new reality. At the same times, it tries to identify the triple crisis faced currently by Greece: at the level of credibility and status, at the level of mediation between the region and the EU and, finally, at the level of the gradual peripherisation of the country.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Greece

12. The Migration/Refugee Crisis and the (Un/Re) Making of Europe: Risks and Challenges for Greece

Author:
Dimitris Keridis
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The migration and refugee crisis that erupted in 2015 landed recession riven Greece with a series of humanitarian, political, social, and financial as well as foreign policy and security challenges. Following a near disastrous open- borders policy steeped in leftist ideological parochialism, Athens aligned itself closely with Germany in support of the EU-Turkey deal that drastically reduced the human flows from Turkey into the EU and invited NATO naval forces to help monitor the implementation of the agreement. This paper is structured around two parts: the first part describes the immigration and refugee crisis itself, from a global, European and national-Greek perspective; the second part analyzes the risks to and policy responses of Greece and how they relate to the country’s overall geostrategic position, at a time when Europe is being redefined as it struggles to respond to a multitude of challenges
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Greece

13. Crisis and the Greek Asylum System in the Framework of the EU-Turkey Agreement: Legal and Political Aspects

Author:
Christos Baxevanis
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Since the signing of the EU-Turkey Statement, there has been a significant reduction in the number of people unlawfully crossing European borders or losing their lives in the Aegean. Turkey plays a crucial and decisive role in addressing the refugee crisis in the Middle East and the Mediterranean region. At the same time, Greece is invited to carry out an unprecedented administrative, legislative and operational project that has not been undertaken so far. Furthermore, Greek authorities have to deal with a series of urgent needs (accommodation, nutrition, asylum procedures, health) or social integration processes (education, training, access to labour). This article focuses on the legal and political aspects in terms of Greek Asylum System as well as special attention is given to the EU- Turkey statement and how its implementation impacts on Greek-Turkish-EU relations. The author notes that this discussion cannot be taken place without taking into account the European institutional and political framework as well as the greatest economic-fiscal crisis faced both by EU and Greece.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Greece

14. Greece’s Strategy and Perceptions towards Turkey: The End of Consensus and the Return of History?

Author:
Kostas Ifantis
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The paper focuses on the impact of the crisis on the Greek public debate on, perception of, and strategy towards Turkey. The analysis is placed in the context of a strategic consensus that was ruptured during the crisis and the lack of bipartisanship on the country’s security preferences. Although Athens and Ankara have enjoyed an unusually long period of calm waters in the Aegean from 1999 to 2016, the last two years have produced the familiar aggressive rhetoric and mutual mistrust. With the bilateral issues intact, the traditional inertia on both sides can easily turn into heightened tensions with the risk of miscalculation given the proximity of military hardware being hardly insignificant. The paper also presents some of the findings of a research conducted by the two guest editors of this special issue on the Greek elites’ perceptions of Turkey in the midst of the crisis.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Greece

15. Greek Foreign Policy in Defence of the National Interest: Teetering between Exceptionalism and Integration

Author:
Dimitrios Triantaphyllou
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This paper aims to explain how crisis-ridden Greece defines and defends its national interest. The constellation of the twin economic and migration crises coupled with the increasingly transactional nature of the global order have forced Greece’s hand in sticking to its guns with regard to its membership in both NATO and the European Union. While deterrence vis-à-vis Turkey remains a high priority, Greece has had to labour to regain its status and credibility within both aforementioned organizations by evolving away from its traditional policy of balancing between its membership obligations in NATO and the EU and its more nuanced approach to relations with Russia in contrast to many other countries. This has been done with the consensual adoption across the mainstream political spectrum of a policy of strategic realism which sees a distancing from the Euro-Atlantic context as an anathema, albeit the persistence of the reflex of exceptionalism and ethno-centrism. Its flank state status and the danger of further marginalization at a time of a changing Turkey have forced its hand while also presenting opportunities for the adoption of a renewed positive agenda with its neighbours.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Greece

16. Introduction: A Note on Populism in Crisis-ridden Greece

Author:
Kostas Ifantis and Dimitrios Triantaphyllou
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This is a collection of essays on Greece during a crisis that has already lasted more than eight years. A group of scholars discusses several aspects of the grand failure that is Greece since 2009. It is by no means a comprehensive treatise of what went so wrong and why a country that is still among the most developed and wealthy in the world cannot bounce back, reform itself, and deliver the public goods to its citizens. Although it is not explicit, a careful reading of the papers reveals an underlying theme. A populist wave finally swept Greece in early 2015 and nearly destroyed the old political guard. The post- Junta political, social and economic consensus that served as a bulwark for rapid democratization and modernization came under enormous pressure from extreme right and extreme left bullies. Civil War discourse and oratory was used to target political opponents and pseudo-revolutionary voluntarism was offered as the anti-European and anti-elite solution to the country’s misery. The justified rage became violent outbursts with the agents of populism barely hiding their satisfaction
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Greece