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2. Brokering a Ceasefire in Yemen’s Economic Conflict
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Alongside the battles over territory, the parties to Yemen’s war are embroiled in fights for control of key parts of the country’s economy. The latter struggle causes great civilian suffering. The new UN envoy should make it a central task to achieve an economic truce.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Persian Gulf
3. How to Spend It: New EU Funding for African Peace and Security
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- New financial structures will soon allow the EU to fund African military operations – including the supply of lethal weaponry – directly, instead of through the African Union. To avoid aggravating conflicts, Brussels should undertake robust risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries subordinate military efforts to political strategies and preserve African Union oversight.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Africa Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
4. The Case for More Inclusive – and More Effective – Peacemaking in Yemen
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International efforts to end the war in Yemen are stuck in an outdated two-party paradigm, seeking to mediate between the Huthis and their foes. As it pushes for renewed talks, the UN should broaden the scope to include Yemeni women’s and other civil society groups.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Persian Gulf
5. Libya Turns the Page
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Libyan politicians have moved with salutary speed in 2021 to reunify their divided country. With UN help, the new government should hasten to clear two last hurdles: establishing a legal framework for elections and clarity about who holds supreme command of the armed forces.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, Elections, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, North Africa, and MENA
6. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa
7. Beyond Emergency Relief: Averting Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Catastrophe
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International donors cut off all but emergency aid to Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in August. Months later, the state is collapsing and a humanitarian disaster is looming. Donors should work with the state to restore basic public services and mitigate the population’s suffering.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Leadership, Fragile States, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
8. Competing Visions of International Order in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The disputes in the South China Sea are fundamentally about claims of sovereignty, the broadest of which are staked by Beijing. The Chinese-U.S. rivalry, meanwhile, loads the dissension with geopolitical significance. Both major powers stand to gain by accepting the constraints of international law.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea
9. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahara
10. Guinée-Bissau: les élections, et après?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Le 13 avril 2014, deux ans et un jour après le coup d'Etat qui a empêché la victoire du Parti africain pour l'indépendance de la Gu inée et du Cap-Vert (PAIGC) à l'élection présidentielle de mars-avril 2012, au terme d'une série de reports et de crises, la Guinée-Bissau va enfin tenir ses élections. Ce s élections législatives et présidentielles ne résultent pas d'un consensus endogène fort. Elles auront lieu parce que le pays est au bord de la banqueroute et que la communauté internationale, moins divisée qu'au moment du coup d'Etat, a exercé une forte pression. Elles ne sont qu'une première étape dans la transition, et les problèmes de fond qui minent la stabilité demeurent. Les scrutins ne manqueront pas de bousculer des intérêts établis et de mettre en jeu l'équilibre du pays. Le nouveau pouvoir devra favoriser le consensus et le pluralisme politique. La communauté internationale, quant à elle, doit rester attentive dans la période cruciale qui s'engage.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Africa
11. South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 15 December 2013 the world's newest state descended into civil war. Continuing fighting has displaced more than 1,000,000 and killed over 10,000 while a humanitarian crisis threatens many more. Both South Sudanese and the international community were ill-prepared to prevent or halt the conflict: the nation's closest allies did little to mediate leadership divisions within the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement's (SPLM). The SPLM and its army (SPLA) quickly split along divisions largely unaddressed from the independence war. Were it not for the intervention of Uganda and allied rebel and militia groups, the SPLA would likely not have been able to hold Juba or recapture lost territory. The war risks tearing the country further apart and is pulling in regional states. Resolving the conflict requires not a quick fix but sustained domestic and international commitment. Governance, including SPLM and SPLA reform and communal relations, must be on the table. Religious and community leaders, civil society and women are critical to this process and must not be excluded.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
12. Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Confrontation, low-intensity but volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of heightened sensitivity. Peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh bogged down in 2011, accelerating an arms race and intensifying strident rhetoric. Terms like “Blitzkrieg'', “pre-emptive strike'' and ''total war” have gained currency with both sides' planners. An immediate concern is military miscalculation, with implications that could far exceed those of a localised post-Soviet frozen conflict, as the South Caucasus, a region where big powers meet and compete, is now also a major energy corridor. Clashes increasingly occur along the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontier far from Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict's original focus. Tensions have also spread to areas along the border with the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan where Azerbaijani and Turkish exercised in July. A subsequent firefight produced casualties, and Armenia staged its own war games near the Azerbaijan border in September. Vigorous international engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during coming weeks and months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, International Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
13. Centrafrique : l'intervention de la dernière chance
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Durant les neuf derniers mois, ce qui restait de l'Etat centrafricain s'est effondré avec de graves conséquences humanitaires (400 000 personnes sont déplacées et presque la moitié de la population a besoin d'aide humanitaire). Le gouvernement de transition et la force de sécurité régionale ont été incapables de freiner la chute dans l'anarchie aussi bien en zone rurale qu'en zone urbaine et notamment à Bangui. Après plusieurs mois de passivité et à la suite de tueries, la communauté internationale a pris conscience des conséquences de la faillite de la RCA. Malheureusement, la détérioration de la situation est bien plus rapide que la mobilisation internationale et Bangui est au bord de l'explosion. Dans l'immédiat, le Conseil de sécurité devrait fournir un mandat sous chapitre 7 à la Mission internationale de soutien à la Centrafrique sous conduite africaine (Misca) épaulée par les forces françaises pour rétablir l'ordre dans Bangui dans un premier temps puis se déployer dans d'autres villes. Par la suite, la réconciliation religieuse devrait être privilégiée et des mesures de stabilisation devraient être appliquées.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa
14. LRA: A Regional Strategy beyond Killing Kony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has become a regional problem that requires a regional solution. Operation Lightning Thunder, launched in December 2008, is the Ugandan army's latest attempt to crush militarily the one- time northern Ugandan rebel group. It has been a failure. After the initial attack, small groups of LRA fighters dispersed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR), where they survive by preying on civilians. National security forces are too weak to protect their own people, while the Ugandan army, with U.S. support, is focused on hunting Joseph Kony, the group's leader. The Ugandans have eroded the LRA's numbers and made its communications more difficult. But LRA fighters, though disorganised, remain a terrible danger to civilians in this mostly ungoverned frontier zone. National armies, the UN and civilians themselves need to pool intelligence and coordinate their efforts in new ways if they are to end the LRA once and for all.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, United States, and South Sudan
15. Latin American Drugs I: Losing the Fight
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Coca leaf and cocaine production in the Andean region appear to have set new records in 2007. Cocaine trafficking and use are expanding across the Americas and Europe. Despite the expenditure of great effort and resources, the counter-drug policies of the U.S., the European Union (EU) and its member states and Latin American governments have proved ineffective and, in part, counterproductive, severely jeopardising democracy and stability in Latin America. The international community must rigorously assess its errors and adopt new approaches, starting with reduced reliance on the measures of aerial spraying and military-type forced eradication on the supply side and greater priority for alternative development and effective law enforcement that expands the positive presence of the state. On the demand reduction side, it should aim to incarcerate traffickers and use best treatment and harm reduction methods to avoid revolving and costly jail sentences for chronic users.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and War on Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Latin America
16. Latin American Drugs II- Improving Policy and Reducing Harm
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The policies of a decade or more to stop the flow of cocaine from the Andean source countries, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, to the two largest consumer markets, the U.S. and Europe, have proved insufficient and ineffective. Cocaine availability and demand have essentially remained stable in the U.S. and have been increasing in Europe. Use in Latin American transit countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Chile, is on the rise. Flawed counter-drug polices also are causing considerable collateral damage in Latin America, undermining support for democratic governments in some countries, distorting governance and social priorities in others, causing all too frequent human rights violations and fuelling armed and/or social conflicts in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru. A comprehensive shared policy reassessment and a new consensus on the balance between approaches emphasising law enforcement and approaches emphasising alternative development and harm reduction are urgently required.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and War on Drugs
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia
17. Armenia: Picking up the Pieces
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008, of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Political Violence, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
18. Côte D'ivoire : Garantir Un Processus Électoral Crédible
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- La Côte d'Ivoire reste sur la voie de la paix un an après la désignation du chef de l'ex-rébellion des Forces nouvelles (FN) Guillaume Soro au poste de Premier ministre par son adversaire d'alors, le président Laurent Gbagbo, mais on ne peut nullement exclure un retour à la violence. Tous les efforts doivent viser à créer les conditions politiques et sécuritaires pour des élections présidentielles et législatives qui, pour la première fois depuis le début du long proc essus de paix ivoirien, paraissent envisageables en moins d'un an. La convoitise du fauteuil présidentiel, pour lequel certains acteurs semblent prêts à tout, combinée à la présence de groupes armés et à l'impunité qui a pros péré au cours des dernières années, constituent un environnement potentiellement explosif. Le président du Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré, facilitateur et arbitre du processus de paix, ainsi que le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, doivent assumer leurs responsabilités pour préserver ce pays clé d'Afrique de l'ouest d'une grave rechute.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- France
19. South Korea's Elections: A Shift to the Right
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- South Korea's electoral politics has made a turn to the right that is likely to lead to closer security ties with the U.S. and some other important adjustments in foreign policy and has already strained relations with the North. The shift toward the Grand National Party (GNP), evident in President Lee Myung-bak's victory in late 2007, was completed when it won a majority in the 18th National Assembly in the 9 April 2008 elections. Those elections were dominated by domestic concerns, especially the economy; foreign policy and inter-Korean relations were near the bottom of voters' interests. The GNP's legislative agenda will include deregulation and privatisation, intended to revitalise business. Although generally supportive of Lee on foreign policy, the new assembly may cause him problems, particularly over unpopular economic liberalisation and deregulation proposals. Opposition to these, which have already produced a major political crisis, may have an impact on wider security concerns.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
20. GUINEE-BISSAU: BESOIN D'ETAT
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- La Guinée-Bissau a besoin d'un Etat. Ses structures politiques et administratives ne lui permettent ni de contrôler son territoire, ni d'assurer les services publics minimums, ni de contrebalancer la domination politique de l'armée. Cette faiblesse structurelle est à l'origine de crises politiques récurrentes, de coups à répétition et de la prolifération de réseaux criminels. Cependant, la Guinée-Bissau semble être engagée aujourd'hui dans un nouvel élan grâce au pacte de stabilité politique signé par les trois partis politiques les plus importants en mars 2007. Le risque est réel de voir le pays devenir un narco-Etat et un no man's land politique et administratif, ouvert à tous les trafics et aux réseaux terroristes du Maghreb. La communauté internationale devrait d'urgence soutenir les efforts du gouvernement actuel pour consolider la démocratie, réformer le secteur de la sécurité et construire des structures étatiques viables.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa
21. Policing in Afghanistan: Still Searching for a Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Police reform in Afghanistan is receiving more attention and resources than ever before, but such increased efforts are still yet to be matched by significant improvements in police effectiveness and public confidence. Too much emphasis has continued to be placed on using the police to fight the insurgency rather than crime. Corruption and political appointments are derailing attempts to professionalise the force. The government and the international community need to reinforce the International Policing Coordination Board (IPCB) as the central forum for prioritising efforts and drive forward with much greater unity of effort. Tangible steps such as appointing a career police commissioner and establishing community liaison boards will build professionalism and wider outreach. A national police force able to uphold the rule of law is crucial to state-building and would help tackle the root causes of alienation that drive the insurgency.
- Topic:
- Security and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
22. Kosovo's First Month
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A month has passed since Kosovo declared independence on 17 February 2008. Much has gone well, but there is a real risk, as made most evident with the violence on 17 March around the courthouse in north Mitrovica, that partition will harden at the Ibar River in the north, and Kosovo will become another frozen conflict. To seek to prevent this, more countries must recognise and embrace the new state, the international missions (European Union and NATO) must be more proactive and coordinate their operations and, most importantly, it must be demonstrated to Serbia, supported by Russia, that it will not be permitted to break up the new state.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Balkans, and Mitrovica
23. Pakistan's Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Taliban and other foreign militants, including al-Qaeda sympathisers, have sheltered since 2001 in Pakistan's Pashtun-majority Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), seven administrative districts bordering on south eastern Afghanistan. Using the region to regroup, reorganise and rearm, they are launching increasingly severe cross-border attacks on Afghan and international military personnel, with the support and active involvement of Pakistani militants. The Musharraf government's ambivalent approach and failure to take effective action is destabilising Afghanistan; Kabul's allies, particularly the U.S. and NATO, which is now responsible for security in the bordering areas, should apply greater pressure on it to clamp down on the pro-Taliban militants. But the international community, too, bears responsibility by failing to support democratic governance in Pakistan, including within its troubled tribal belt.
- Topic:
- Government and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, Taliban, and Tribal Areas
24. Perilous Journeys: The Plight of North Koreans in China and Beyond
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Scores of thousands of North Koreans have been risking their lives to escape their country's hardships in search of a better life, contributing to a humanitarian challenge that is playing out almost invisibly as the world focuses on North Korea's nuclear program. Only a little over 9,000 have made it to safety, mostly in South Korea but also in Japan, Europe and the U.S. Many more live in hiding from crackdowns and forcible repatriations by China and neighbouring countries, vulnerable to abuse and exploitation. If repatriated to the North, they face harsh punishment, possibly execution. China and South Korea have held back, even during the Security Council debate over post-test sanctions, from applying as much pressure as they might to persuade Pyongyang to reverse its dangerous nuclear policy, in part because they fear that the steady stream of North Koreans flowing into China and beyond would become a torrent if the North's economy were to collapse under the weight of tough measures. While there is marginally more hope Beijing will change its ways than Pyongyang, concerned governments can and must do far more to improve the situation of the border crossers.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
25. Somaliland: Time for African Union Leadership
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 18 May 2006, the self-declared Republic of Somaliland marked fifteen years since it proclaimed independence from Somalia. Although its sovereignty is still unrecognised by any country, the fact that it is a functioning constitutional democracy distinguishes it from the majority of entities with secessionist claims, and a small but growing number of governments in Africa and the West have shown sympathy for its cause. The territory's peace and stability stands in stark contrast to much of southern Somalia, especially the anarchic capital, Mogadishu, where clashes between rival militias have recently claimed scores of lives. But Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is still struggling to overcome internal divisions and establish its authority in southern Somalia, also claims sovereignty over the territory, and the issue is becoming an increasing source of tension. The African Union (AU) needs to engage in preventive diplomacy now, laying the groundwork for resolution of the dispute before it becomes a confrontation from which either side views violence as the only exit.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Balkans, and Somalia
26. Rebuilding Liberia: Prospects and Perils
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Liberia is a collapsed state that has become in effect a UN protectorate. Whether its political and economic reconstruction can begin depends on how quickly security spreads throughout the country. Squabbles over jobs by leaders of the armed factions have caused near-paralysis in the transitional government. Faction leaders tried to block disarmament until they received more jobs, boding ill for the peace process. The display of cynicism and greed by fighters and political leaders alike has undermined international confidence ahead of the donors' conference that meets in New York, 5-6 February 2004.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- New York and Liberia
27. CÔTE D'IVOIRE: "The War Is Not Yet Over"
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- "The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation. The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Nations, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
28. Refugie Set Deplaces Au Burundi: Desamorcer La Bombe Fonciere
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- La signature d'un accord définitif de cessez-le-feu et la suspension permanente des hostilités, aussi élusives soient-elles aujourd'hui, risquent de produire le retour massif d'une population déracinée qui n'attendra pas que le pays soit fin prêt à les accueillir pour rentrer chez elle. Le rapatriement et la réinstallation rapides d'environ un million de Burundais ne pourront se faire dans de bonnes conditions que s'ils bénéficient d'une préparation minutieuse. Aujourd'hui, le gouvernement de transition comme la communauté internationale n'ont pas pris la mesure des conséquences politiques qu'un tel retour pourrait avoir sur le pays, notamment pour la gestion de la question foncière. Les conflits fonciers pourraient en effet devenir une nouvelle source de déstabilisation pour la transition au lendemain de la signature d'un cessez-le-feu définitif.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Migration
29. Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war - which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 - or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme - the original flashpoint of the war - is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, North Africa, and Ethiopia
30. Sudan Endgame
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sudan peace process is in its endgame. One year ago, the parties signed the Machakos Protocol, a provisional "grand bargain" that effectively traded a southern self-determination referendum for Sharia in the North. It is time for a second "grand bargain" on the remaining issues such as the status of the national capital, the presidency and the security arrangements to close the deal. This requires major tradeoffs - or new solutions - to meet the bottom lines of the parties and protect the original Protocol as well as incentives for implementation. Commitments on the U.S.-Sudan bilateral relationship and assurances that the U.S. will remain closely involved in the post-agreement process are the glue without which a deal is unlikely to stick. With them, peace has a chance.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
31. Decision Time in Zimbabwe
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Change is in the air in Zimbabwe. Its citizens no longer talk about whether it will come, but rather when. All acknowledge, however, that the road will be dangerous, possibly violent. South Africa is the single country with ability to help its neighbour through the roughest patches if it is willing to engage with sufficient determination to persuade the government of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party to sit down with their challenger, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and then facilitate and mediate negotiations for a transitional government and new elections. A range of other international players need to play supporting roles, including the EU, the Southern Africa Development Commission (SADC), the African Union (AU), and the Commonwealth, but most directly and prominently the U.S. The visit of President Bush to South Africa on 8 July is a unique opportunity to chart action that could lead to a negotiated solution and an end to the crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe
32. Somaliland: Democratisation and Its Discontents
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Recent developments have made the choice faced by the international community considerably clearer: develop pragmatic responses to Somaliland's demand for self-determination or continue to insist upon the increasingly abstract notion of the unity and territorial integrity of the Somali Republic - a course of action almost certain to open a new chapter in the Somali civil war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Somalia
33. Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb ut-Tahrir
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Hizbut-Tahrir al-Islami (The Party of Islamic Liberation) stands apart from better known radical Islamist movements by its apparent opposition to the use of violence. But its views are highly radical, advocating the overthrow of governments throughout the Muslim world and their replacement by an Islamic state in the form of a recreated Caliphate. It has grown quickly in Central Asia and been met with a heavy-handed repression that threatens to radicalise members still further and sow the seeds of greater Islamist extremism in the region.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia
34. Sudan's Other Wars
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The two-party framework in which Sudan's peace talks are being held is not adequately addressing all the country's current armed conflicts: especially the long-running rebellions in the “Three Areas” (Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile ) in the North, and the more recent outbreak of armed conflict in Darfur in western Sudan. The discontents in these regions have thus far largely been viewed as of secondary importance to those of the South, but they must be taken into account if a sustainable national peace agreement is to be reached. There is a real potential for those who feel ignored by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) peace process to undermine any deal that is between only the Khartoum government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). It is therefore incumbent upon the IGAD mediation team and the international observer countries to ensure that the grievances driving conflict in these areas are fully dealt with in any comprehensive peace deal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
35. Congo Crisis: Military Intervention in Ituri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The district of Ituri, in Oriental Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been the theatre of spiralling violence bordering on genocide that urgently needs to be stopped. A French-led Interim Emergency Multinational Force (IEMF) is being deployed to restore peace and order in the administrative centre – Bunia – and facilitate humanitarian relief. However, this intervention, authorised by UN Security Council Resolution 1484 of 30 May 2003, is on the face of it totally insufficient.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa
36. Rwandan Hutu Rebels in the Congo: a New Approach to Disarmament and Reintegration
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While a transition government is scheduled to be installed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in June 2003, the program of the United Nations Mission in Congo (MONUC) for voluntary disarmament and demobilisation, repatriation, rehabilitation and reintegration (DDRRR, henceforth DR) of foreign armed groups has remained a failure. Authorised by Security Council mandate on 18 November 2001 to deploy in eastern Congo, MONUC has repatriated only a few hundred Rwandan ex-rebels and has opened only one demobilisation centre at Lubero in North Kivu. The participation of South African observers in the Third Party Verification Mechanism (TPVM) established by an accord between Rwanda and Congo in July 2002, has not changed anything. MONUC has still not deployed a serious force in eastern Congo or constructed a credible DR program.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
37. Angola's Choice: Reform or Regress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year after more than four decades of internationally fuelled civil conflict came to an end, Angola is faced with a stark choice. If the government undertakes and sustains meaningful political and economic reforms, peace and prosperity would be assured. If it delays and obfuscates on fundamental issues of transparency, diversification and pluralism, the country will likely be condemned to further decades of poor governance and localised violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa
38. Negotiating a Blueprint for Peace in Somalia
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The peace process in Somalia is at a critical point. Talks that began with great promise are in danger of collapsing unless the mediators, the international community and the Somali factions themselves provide stronger leadership. The Somali public's flagging interest and support for the process needs to be revived, and improvements are required in the negotiating process or the parties will be unable to tackle the many difficult outstanding issues. Unfortunately, the international community has remained reluctant to throw its full weight behind the peace talks, to take a tough line with those who are undermining it or generally to express a unified position on preferred outcomes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Somalia
39. Zimbabwe: Danger and Opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The economic meltdown, government-created food crisis, and deepening state-sponsored violence that have plagued Zimbabwe in the year since President Robert Mugabe's ruling party rigged the presidential election continue to point in one ominous direction: potential state collapse.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
40. A Framework For Responsible Aid To Burundi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Within the last two months, thanks to the active engagement of the facilitation team, Burundi's peace process has exceeded expectations. Momentum has never been so strong since the civil war began ten years ago. On 3 December 2002, the transitional government led by President Buyoya signed a landmark ceasefire agreement with the Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie – Forces de défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) of Jean- Pierre Nkurunziza. This complemented the ceasefire reached two months earlier with two minor rebel groups (the CNDD-FDD faction led by Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye and the PALIPEHUTU-FNL faction led by Alain Mugabarabona). On 27 January 2003, the government and the three rebel groups signed an additional memorandum of understanding establishing a Joint Ceasefire Commission and setting a date for the return of Mugarabona and Ndayikengurukiye to Burundi. An African Union force with South African, Ethiopian and Mozambican troops is to be deployed in the next few weeks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Burundi
41. Dealing with Savimbi's Ghost: The Security and Humanitarian Challenges in Angola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Emerging slowly from decades of civil war, Angola stands at a crossroads between a spectacular recovery or further cycles of instability and crisis. The government that won the fighting must now move on a number of fronts – with international support – to win the peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Angola
42. The Kivus: The Forgotten Crucible of the Congo Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- December 2002 witnessed the signing of a power sharing agreement between Congolese parties under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy, Mustapha Niasse, and South Africa that should lead to finalisation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and a transitional government. Yet, it is unlikely that the agreement alone will bring immediate peace. Serious fighting continues in Eastern Congo, particularly Kivu and Ituri Provinces, which have been the main theatres for direct and proxy confrontation between local, national and regional participants in the Congolese conflict since the cease-fire was signed in Lusaka in 1999. The population there is suffering enormously while there is an almost complete absence of international attention.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Lusaka
43. Sudan's Oilfields Burn Again: Brinkmanship Endangers The Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's peace process survived a major challenge in the first weeks of the new year. Indeed, signature by the parties of a strengthened cessation of hostilities agreement on 4 February and a memorandum of understanding codifying points of agreement on outstanding issues of power and wealth sharing two days later indicates that the momentum to end the twenty-year old conflict is strong. However, the crisis produced by a government-sponsored offensive in the Western Upper Nile oilfields at the end of 2002 and through January raised questions about the Khartoum government's commitment to peace and showed that much more attention needs to be paid to pro-government southern militias and the commercial and political agendas for which they are being used.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
44. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa
45. Salvaging Somalia's Chance For Peace
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 27 October 2002, Somali political leaders gathered in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a new declaration that envisages an end to the protracted crisis in their country. After more than a decade as the only country in the world totally devoid of a functioning central government and no less than twenty unsuccessful national-level peace initiatives since 1991, the Eldoret Declaration has raised hopes that resolution of the Somali crisis may now be within reach.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, North Africa, and Somalia
46. Ending Starvation as a Weapon of War in Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Warring parties and international aid providers in Sudan have an historic opportunity to bring to an end what is perhaps the most extreme and long-running example in the world of using access to humanitarian aid as an instrument of war. A mid- December meeting between the UN and Sudan's warring parties – the Technical Committee for Humanitarian Assistance (TCHA) – provides an unparalleled vehicle to build on recent short-term agreements and to once and for all remove the institutional barriers to unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies. Such an opportunity may not arise again, so it is imperative that mediators, the UN Security Council, and interested governments provide concentrated and immediate support for this objective.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan, United Nations, and North Africa
47. Zimbabwe: The Politics of National Liberation and International Division
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite the rising humanitarian costs of the crisis in Zimbabwe, the international community remains deeply divided about its response, allowing President Mugabe to believe that he can exploit the policy fissure between – broadly – the West and Africa. The foreign media's emphasis on the plight of white commercial farmers plays into the regime's liberation rhetoric, reinforcing the erroneous but widespread belief in Africa that the West is concerned about Zimbabwe only because white property interests have been harmed. What is happening in Zimbabwe and the lack of a continental response have damaged perceptions of Africa in the wider international community, weakening in the process the promising but still embryonic New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and the African Union (AU).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
48. Sudan's Best Chance for Peace: How Not to Lose It
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 1 September 2002, two weeks into the second phase of the peace negotiations in Machakos, Kenya, the Sudanese government suspended its participation in the talks being brokered by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This followed the capture, after a series of battles, of the southeastern Sudanese town of Torit by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa
49. The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire Negotiations
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Prospects are still weak for a ceasefire agreement in Burundi that includes all rebel factions. Despite the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government on 1 November 2001, the warring parties, the Burundi army and the various factions of the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) and of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are still fighting. Neither side has been able to gain a decisive military advantage, although the army recently claimed several important victories.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burundi
50. Dialogue or Destruction? Organising for Peace as the War in Sudan Escalates
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's civil war, already one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, has entered its most destructive phase to date. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase increasingly lethal weapons, more effectively pursue population-clearing operations, and expand the use of its greatest comparative advantage, air power. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) has greater manpower to deploy on multiple fronts, has also acquired more sophisticated arms, and is engaging government forces in more intense conventional battles.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa