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52. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
53. The Russia-Ukraine War: Where Do We Go from Here?
- Author:
- Zvi Magen and Sophie Kobzantsev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Two months after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the goal of a short campaign has clearly not been achieved. Russia now seeks to achieve gains while suspending the negotiations with Kyiv – both to improve its position in advance of future negotiations, and to deliver the message to the West that “you cannot stop us.”
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
54. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel
- Author:
- Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
55. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
- Topic:
- Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
56. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
57. Investigation of Russia's Crimes in Ukraine: A Turning Point for the International Criminal Court?
- Author:
- Ori Beeri and Pnina Sharvit Baruch
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Chief Prosecutor at The Hague has already begun to investigate actions taken by Russia in the Ukrainian arena, while accelerating judicial proceedings and bureaucracy. This reflects a change of approach, which includes the prioritization of recent events, as part of an effort to strengthen the status of the Court. How will this affect the investigation of the war in Eastern Europe – and the investigation concerning Israel?
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, International Crime, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus
58. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?
- Author:
- Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
59. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West
- Author:
- Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine
60. The Ukrainian Civil Front – An Interim Assessment
- Author:
- Meir Elran, Uri Bar-Yosef, and Zvi Magen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Most of Ukraine’s civilian population demonstrates a high degree of steadfastness during the war, rallying around the flag – and around the president. Nonetheless, the challenge to Ukrainian national resilience remains high, given the huge waves of migration, the losses in the hinterland, and the severe damage to national infrastructure and the local economy – which could have decisive effects on Ukraine’s ability to recover from the war
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
61. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver
- Author:
- Gal Perl Finkel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
62. After the Russian “Ruse,” China Looks for New Friends
- Author:
- Galia Lavi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would seem that Beijing and Moscow should be a united front against the West. But in actuality, China has been surprised by the scale of the Russian aggression and is now rethinking its position in the geopolitical arena. How will this affect the Middle East?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Asia
63. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation
- Author:
- Yohanan Tzoreff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
- Topic:
- Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
64. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries
- Author:
- Haggy Etkes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East
65. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine
- Author:
- Noa Shusterman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
66. Intelligence and the War in Ukraine: The Limited Power of Public Disclosure
- Author:
- Ofek Reimer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West began to disclose intelligence material on Putin’s plans – thereby using a policy tool that brings with it both advantages and risks. What did the intelligence disclosures achieve, and what might Israel learn from this experience?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
67. Will Russia Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
- Author:
- Helit Barel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- One month into the war in Ukraine, the nuclear threat remains. Will Russia’s President decide to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, and thereby shatter the 77 years of nuclear deterrence? From a rational perspective, there is little likelihood of this occurring, but thus far Putin has not succeeded in realizing his goals in the Ukrainian theater – and Russia has a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
68. The United States and the Ukrainian Crisis: Implications for the Internal Arena and the Great Power Competition
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- With the crisis in Eastern Europe continuing, Washington is maintaining a steady policy: military assistance to Ukraine and economic isolation of Russia, without “boots on the ground.” How is this policy perceived in the United States, particularly in advance of the midterm elections this coming November? How does the war influence the administration’s priorities that were outlined at the outset of its tenure?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
69. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
70. Underreporting of Russian Investments Abroad: Are the Sanctions Undermined?
- Author:
- Haggy Etkes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- There are indications of underreporting to Western authorities of Russian investments worth about 90 billion dollars, when Russian reports of investments abroad are compared with Western data. If correct, this undermines the effectiveness of the asset freezing that is part of the sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
71. The War in Ukraine: The Challenge of Shaping an Endgame
- Author:
- Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although nearly three weeks have passed since Putin invaded Ukraine, there is no framework for an endgame on the horizon. While the United States and the West would like to bring Putin to his knees as he sinks deeper in the Ukrainian mud, Washington must recognize that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
72. The Second Republic of Iran: Is Iran Moving toward a Constitutional Change?
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- An initiative to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary system is once again on the agenda of the Islamic Republic, and this time enjoys support among conservatives as well as in the reformist-pragmatic camp – all for their respective reasons. Is there any viable possibility of this constitutional change in Iran?
- Topic:
- Governance, Constitution, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
73. Is Ukraine Poised to Join NATO and the European Union?
- Author:
- Oden Eran and Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are more and more voices in the West calling for Kiev’s acceptance into NATO and the European Union. However, this is not the time for rapid measures. Now that Putin has backed himself int a corner, the United States and Europe, in parallel with the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia and the assistance to Ukraine, must leave Moscow a way out
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and North America
74. Putin’s Dilemma
- Author:
- Ofer Shelah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After more than two weeks of war in Ukraine, initial conclusions can already be drawn. Chief among these is the realization that force application in complicated conditions can confront a decision maker with a serious dilemma, in which precisely a military achievement may destroy any possibility of scoring a political achievement
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
75. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace
- Author:
- Ofir Winter
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
76. Germany and the Ukraine Crisis: End of the Age of Illusions
- Author:
- Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political-security approach of the last decades, and recent speeches in the Bundestag reflect the government’s intention to make system-wide changes in security orientation. Germany must also understand how it missed warning signs from Russia over the years, and formulate a clear policy that addresses the emerging worrisome trends
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
77. A Rising and Falling Alarm: A Strategy for a Joint Exercise in the Home Front Command
- Author:
- Liron Donnell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The incoming chief of staff of the Home Front Command responds to an article by INSS researcher Meir Elran. She contends that contrary to the claim that the national home front exercise held this past November realized only part of its potential, the exercise in fact met all of its goals and saw many solid achievements. Moreover, the criticism of the event addressed issues that cannot be resolved in a single exercise
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
78. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Legal Aspects
- Author:
- Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Ori Beeri
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has been the object of significant legal pressure. While the various legal measures have no power to stop the bloody war, they deliver a powerful, unequivocal message: any state that flagrantly violates international world and undermines the world order will suffer isolation, condemnation, sanction, and criminal investigations. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Law, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
79. Hezbollah's Efforts to Restore its Domestic Standing: The Israeli Card
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The launch of a drone into Israeli territory this past February was yet another offensive cognitive activity by Hezbollah, intended to mask its deteriorating situation – in the domestic arena, stemming from the growing criticism of the organization in advance of the coming elections, scheduled for May, and vis-à-vis Israel, given its difficulty to maintain the “deterrence equation” that it defined. Jerusalem should expect additional acts of this sort, while preparing for a future situation in which the attacks become a security threat
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
80. Qatar’s Regional and International Standing is on the Rise
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- With the war in Ukraine and the possible energy shortage, Qatar’s international status as the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) has risen. What opportunities now lie before Doha, and how might this situation affect Israel?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Qatar and Gulf Nations
81. The Ukraine Crisis: An Interim Analysis
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit, Zvi Magen, and Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began only days ago, it is already clear that with this belligerence Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
82. The Attacks in Sri Lanka and Trends in Salafi Jihadist Activity
- Author:
- Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The recent suicide attack in Sri Lanka, launched by a local group linked to the Islamic State, targeted the symbols of Christianity and Western tourists and businesspeople. The attack aimed to terrorize Sri Lankan citizens, drive a wedge between them and the government, and foment discord between the various ethnic groups. It demonstrated anew that the lack of effective cooperation and intelligence sharing between the intelligence, security, and enforcement agencies is a central factor in the success of terror groups to carry out their plans. The military defeat of the Islamic State does not herald the destruction of the organization or the end of its activity - quite the opposite. The Salafi jihadist ideology and the modus operandi represented by the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates continue to inspire terrorists, whether they are directly or indirectly linked to them, or see them as a model for imitation. Details and the lessons of the Sri Lanka attack, if properly learned, will help prevent or obstruct future terror plans of the Islamic State and its supporters – plans that are expected to challenge many countries in the years to come.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, and Sri Lanka
83. The Rising Crisis between the United States and Iran
- Author:
- Amos Yadlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After a year in which Iran opted for "strategic patience," in the hope that European nations would compensate for the United States sanctions, it now seeks to present a price tag for the US measures against it, and has thus embarked on a response comprising action in three realms: nuclear, military, and oil exports from the Gulf. In the current circumstances, Iran and the United States are demanding conditions that would make a resumption of negotiations difficult, although both sides apparently understand that dialogue may ultimately be the less dangerous option for them. The latest developments embody the potential for escalation and miscalculation that is liable to affect Israel's security, and therefore the security cabinet should convene to craft an appropriate policy for the near, medium, and long terms.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Oil, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America
84. The Proposed Changes to Judicial Oversight of Government Powers: Justified Measures or an Erosion of Democracy?
- Author:
- Pnina Sharvit Baruch
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Amid the coalition negotiations underway in Israel there is a heated debate over various proposals regarding significant changes to the legal oversight of governmental and parliamentary work. Remarkable throughout the debate of these proposals is the lack of regard to their impact on the preservation and promotion of the character of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, and instead, there is a worrisome focus on political and personal motives. Against this background, it is possible to propose several recommendations. First, in the current debate, the Court is accused of "stealing democracy" and of being a political institution with a blatantly left wing agenda. This incorrect premise, which undermines the ability to conduct a public debate in constructive fashion and erodes the legitimacy of the Court and the public's faith in the Court, must be reversed. Second, there is room for discussion on appropriate constitutional changes. Democratic countries around the world have differing successful constitutional structures, and there is no "one right answer." Yet any future change must be carried out through a focused discussion that incorporates all relevant parties, including politicians, judges, and academics with expertise in the field. Finally, whatever the eventual constitutional changes, they must not undermine the basic principles of the separation of powers, the rule of law, and the power of the Court to practice effective oversight of the government. These are essential building blocks for proper democratic rule.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Constitution, and Secularism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
85. The Mueller Report: What it Includes, What it Omits, and What it Teaches
- Author:
- Itai Brun and Tehilla Shwartz Altschuler
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- On April 18, 2019, the US Department of Justice released a redacted version of the full report (448 pages) submitted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller about Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. The report consists of two parts: the first presents the outcome of the investigation into Russia’s involvement in the election and draws conclusions regarding the presence or absence of a conspiracy or illegal coordination between the Russians and the Trump campaign; the second part deals with President Trump’s possible obstruction of justice regarding the FBI investigation into the Russian intervention and the investigation by the Special Counsel himself. This essay deals with the first part, i.e., the results of the investigation into the connection between the Russians and Trump for the purpose of influencing the election results. The report reflects accurately the US criminal law that deals with conspiracy and illegal coordination regarding elections. At the same time, it exposes a gap in the nation’s conceptual, organizational, legal, and technological preparedness to confront the possibilities that the digital space provides to undermine – internally and externally – the democratic process. Israel suffers from the same gap, and it is therefore imperative that the state confront it before the next Knesset election.
- Topic:
- Crime, Elections, Election Interference, and Investigations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and North America
86. Concerns for Jordan's Stability
- Author:
- Oden Eran
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- In the first years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the common assessment was that the Hashemite Kingdom was able to cope with the challenges it confronted, despite the various internal and external political pressures, including the demographic pressure created by the wave of refugees from Syria. However, cracks in this image of stability have begun to emerge, and there are increasing indications that the developments in the country could lead to a serious undermining of the regime, with long term strategic ramifications. The destabilization process could, for example, be sparked by protracted mass demonstrations, some of them violent, a loss of control over the situation by security forces, and a loss of the palace's control over parliamentary decisions.
- Topic:
- Popular Revolt, Political stability, Arab Spring, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and Jordan
87. Does Hezbollah Want a War with Israel Now?
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Voices in the Arab media have recently suggested that war between Israel and Hezbollah may erupt this coming summer. This debate began even before the rise in tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, which once again brought to the fore the possibility of Iran using Hezbollah as a proxy against Israel. In recent speeches, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acted quickly to calm the waters, while delivering messages designed to deter Israel from taking measures against Hezbollah. Nasrallah asserted that Hezbollah was capable of striking strategic sites on the Israeli home front and conquering parts of the Galilee. These statements indicate that as far as Hezbollah is concerned, the current circumstances are not convenient for a conflict with Israel, due to Hezbollah's continuing involvement in the war in Syria and a wish to avoid undermining Hezbollah's recent achievements in the Lebanese political system. Also important is Hezbollah's deepening economic plight, resulting in part from American sanctions against the organization and its patron, Iran, although these economic difficulties have not yet affected Hezbollah's continued investment in its military buildup and deployment for a future war with Israel. Nevertheless, even if Hezbollah has no interest in a large scale conflict with Israel at this time, escalation as a result of particular measures by Israel in Lebanon and the organization's response, or from Hezbollah's own actions against Israel aimed at serving Iranian interests, cannot be ruled out. Israel must therefore prepare in advance for the possibility of a military campaign in the north.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf
88. Russia and Iran: Is the Syrian Honeymoon Over?
- Author:
- Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The rescue of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by the pro-Assad coalition, comprising Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies, led to the victory of the regime over the rebels; the coalition’s achievements stem primarily from the effective cooperation between Iran and Russia since 2015 in fighting the rebels. Now, with the battles over, despite shared interests in consolidating the Assad regime, inherent tensions between Russia and Iran regarding influence in Syria have emerged in greater relief. Yet despite the disagreements, this it is not a zero-sum game between Russia and Iran. Both continue to cooperate on a range of issues in the Syrian arena and beyond. Iran for its part continues to see its consolidation in Syria as a strategic objective, and despite difficulties that have emerged, it seems that Tehran remains determined to continue, even if to a lesser extent than originally planned. After the success of Israel’s military actions to halt Iran’s military consolidation in Syria, Jerusalem should maximize the political potential and the shared interest of Russia and the United States to stabilize the situation in Syria, and to reduce Iran’s influence and capabilities in the country.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, and Syria
89. The Begin Doctrine: The Lessons of Osirak and Deir ez-Zor
- Author:
- Amos Yadlin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The decision to attack a nuclear reactor in enemy territory is one of the most difficult decisions that an Israeli leader may face. Prime Minister Menahem Begin drafted the unofficial doctrine that is named for him, “the Begin Doctrine,” seeking to prevent countries hostile to Israel calling for its destruction from developing a nuclear military capability.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
90. Preparations for the Nakba March: Hamas’s Cognitive Campaign
- Author:
- Kobi Michael and Gabi Siboni
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is heavily engaged in preparations for a the “Great March of Return,” scheduled for May 14, 2018, when thousands of Gaza’s Palestinians will march toward the security fence and position themselves in tent cities along the Israeli border. The event is intended to highlight the Palestinian refugee issue and connect it to the plight of those living the Gaza Strip
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Gaza
91. The Ministry of Defense Budget for 2019: Major Issues
- Author:
- Shmuel Even
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- According to the state budget for 2019, approved by the Knesset on March 15, 2018, the Defense Ministry budget will stand at NIS 72.9 billion gross and NIS 55.3 billion net (11.5 percent of the state budget). The Defense Ministry’s budget for 2019 represents the fourth year in the IDF’s five-year plan (the Gideon Plan for 2016-2020), during which it must start to formulate a new five-year plan
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
92. Israel's Qatari Dilemma
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Qatar’s support for Hamas and its investment in the Gaza Strip, though based more on pragmatism than on ideological identification, suit its foreign policy, which supports political Islam and aims to increase Doha’s influence in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Israel
93. The Gas Deal with Egypt: Israel Deepens its Anchor in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Oden Eran and Elai Rettig
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Presumably the government of Israel played an important role in securing the $15 billion natural gas deal signed recently between the owners of Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan fields and the Egyptian Dolphinus Holding. For his part, Egypt’s President el-Sisi stated that with this deal Egypt has gained a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, positioned itself as a regional energy center
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
94. Iran in a Changing Strategic Environment
- Author:
- Meir Litvak, Emily Landau, and Ephraim Kam
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- This collection contains essays analyzing the state of Iran’s nuclear program and the deterrent relationship between the United States and Iran since the nuclear agreement was presented; Iran’s relations with specific Middle East states; and dominant political and social issues within Iran, and their influence on Iran’s foreign policy.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
95. Turkey and Iran: Two Regional Powers and the Relations Pendulum
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, despite periodic hostile statements on the one hand and high level visits on the other, Turkey-Iran relations have experienced few surprising developments. As Hakki Uygur has argued, “The Turkish-Iranian relationship can be considered one of the most consistent and predictable sets of relations in the Middle East region.” During this time, Turkish-Iranian relations have fluctuated within a defined range whereby despite the intense competition, they never reach the point of deep crisis. However, even in the case of shared interests, the two states have not proved capable of achieving close strategic cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Turkey
96. Iran in the Wake of the Protests: Voices of Change without Change
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Some two months after the outbreak of the most significant wave of protest in Iran since the 2009 riots, the Iranian authorities are endeavoring to bring the situation back to normal, though various pockets of protest are still discernible. While the wave of protest began to wane already a week after it broke out, demonstrations on a limited scale are ongoing in various parts of the country, mainly concerning wage withholding and the collapse of pension and saving funds. There are also some local instances of defiance against the regime, including anti-establishment graffiti in the public domain, strikes, torched banks, and defaced posters with the Supreme Leader’s picture.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
97. Russian Intervention in the US Presidential Elections: The New Threat of Cognitive Subversion
- Author:
- Yotam Rosner and David Siman-Tov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The indictment filed by the United States Justice Department on February 16, 2018 against 13 Russian citizens and three Russian companies regarding attempts to promote the candidacy of Donald Trump for the US presidency, amounting to intervention in the country’s political system, is a phenomenon enabling interference in the “consciousness” of another country
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
98. Germany-Israel Relations: Unique or Normal?
- Author:
- Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Recent events and statements by German figures indicate a change in Germany’s attitude to Israel. What for decades was a unique bilateral relationship – grounded in the memory of the Holocaust and the commitment that Germany consequently made to Israel’s existence and security – has been increasingly shaped by considerations of realpolitik that formerly played a secondary role.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Germany
99. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?
- Author:
- Amos Yadlin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
100. From the First Intifada to the "March of Return"
- Author:
- Yohanan Tzoreff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The "March of Return" events have brought out the masses. It seems that since the first intifada the Palestinian arena has not witnessed such widespread mass participation as evident in the recent protests along the Gaza Strip border. At the same time, it is doubtful whether the crowds can deliver the same achievements they furnished in the first intifada. This is due to public suspicions regarding the intentions of both Fatah and Hamas, the absence of international and Arab support so far, and the deterrent element of Israel's response. A new chapter appears to have opened in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, in which the Palestinian public is asked to decide which of the two paths proposed by the respective leaderships – in Ramallah and in Gaza – should be adopted. In the background are the echoes of failure of both paths – the path of negotiation and security coordination led by the Palestinian Authority, and the path of armed opposition led by Hamas. The main test now is for Hamas, as the ruler of the Strip. Will it succeed by means of the "March of Return," which it is leading but did not initiate, to extend the common denominator between the rival Palestinian camps, to heighten the motivation to maintain the tension along the border, until the planned climax on May 15? Or will it be satisfied with the attempt to place the blame for the failure of internal Palestinian reconciliation and the weakening internal reality on the Palestinian Authority leadership in Ramallah? Time will tell.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Conflict, Hamas, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
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