Publishing Institution: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)

1. Interview with the Honorable Arvydas Anušauskas: Minister of National Defence of Lithuania

Author:: Arvydas Anušauskas and Michael Miklaucic
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: PRISM: Sweden is reviving its Total Defense concept and Finland has Comprehensive Defense. What are the fundamental elements of Lithuania’s national strategy? Anušauskas: Lithuania’s defense policy is based on three pillars. These are the strengthening of the armed forces, a resilient society, and reliance on collective defense. In order to achieve these three, we are increasing our spending on defense. During the last nine years we have increased our spending on defense six times, which now amounts to 2.5 percent of Lithuania’s GDP. Much of that funding goes to modernizing our armed forces; for this purpose, we now allocate 30 percent of our total spending. The second pillar of our national security is societal resilience. For this purpose, we have adopted a civil resilience strategy. To put it briefly the purpose of the strategy is to ensure that citizens are able to operate in times of crisis. When it comes to collective defense, our key interest is enhanced forward defenses and combat credible deterrence. We are really interested in having sufficient NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and also U.S. forces deployed in the region as well as pre-positioning of equipment and air and missile defense. And the regional plans that connect all these in-place forces, reinforcements, command and control elements, capabilities, and enablers across the regions.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Lithuania

2. Interview with the Honorable Hanno Pevkur: Minister of Defense of Estonia

Author:: Hanno Pevkur and Michael Miklaucic
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: PRISM: Sweden has Total Defense and Finland has Comprehensive Defense. What are the fundamental principles of Estonia’s strategic paradigm? Pevkur: We are quite like Finland in the sense that we have a clear understanding that everyone must be involved in protecting the country. We have a conscript service for the reserve army. This is mandatory for all men and voluntary for women. What we have changed since the full-scale war in Ukraine is that we have increased the number of wartime structures. We had 31,000 fighters before, but now we have almost 44,000. Most of those come from the Volunteer Defense League. The Estonian army is based on the regular army, the reserve army, and the Volunteer Defense League which at the moment has 30,000 people of which 10,000 are combatants. This will be increased this year to 20,000, which brings us to 44,000 combatants in our wartime structure.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Interview, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and NATO
Political Geography:: Estonia, Baltic States, and Europe

3. Proceed with Caution: Israeli Research Collaboration with China

Author:: Casey Babb
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: For Israel, warming relations with China has, in large part, been driven by pragmatic and enticing economic prospects, with policies focused on seizing the economic opportunity. For Xi and the Chinese Communist Party, the rationale for strengthening relations with Israel has been equally pragmatic, if of a different nature. China has long sought access to Israel’s vaunted innovation and technology sector – one of the most advanced in the world. For these reasons, China-Israel relations have accelerated dramatically, in areas ranging from trade in goods, to investment deals, to diplomatic relations, and beyond. However, over the last few years, and partly in response to mounting US pressure on Israel to reconsider its relations with China, there has been a noticeable cooling of economic activity between the two countries. That being said, if Israel wants to solidify its relationship with the US while limiting the gateways China could conceivably use to access or acquire the country’s technology and innovation in certain dual-use domains, it must also ensure the country’s research, intellectual property, and expert knowledge in these areas is sufficiently protected.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

4. Islamic Republic or Islamic Monarchy? The Possible Transfer of Power in Iran to the Supreme Leader's Son

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In recent weeks, public debate in Iran has resumed regarding the possibility of transferring power after the death of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to his son Mojtaba. In the background of this debate is criticism of the idea of cultivating Mojtaba as a possible successor, sounded by the leader of the reformist opposition, Mir-Hossein Mousavi; a report on the promotion of Mojtaba to a high religious status with the rank of ayatollah; and an expression of support for his possible appointment as leader from one of the Friday prayer leaders. The possibility of the transfer of power to Khamenei's son has already evoked severe public criticism on the ground that it contravenes the fundamental principles of the Islamic Revolution. At this point, it is too early to assess whether this scenario is indeed considered seriously. However, in the absence of a suitable consensus candidate to succeed Khamenei, it cannot be ruled out that the death of the current Supreme Leader may pave the way for a transition to an alternative governing model, including dynastic rule.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

5. Chaos in the Palestinian Authority: From Counter-Terrorism to Reconstruction

Author:: Orit Perlov and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent months have seen a steep rise in the use of live fire in the Palestinian cities in the West Bank against IDF forces, as well as in the number of shooting incidents and other attacks. Behind the shootings are primarily young Palestinians, including Fatah operatives, and this phenomenon reflects the chaos within the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli security response, which focuses on counter-terrorism and widespread arrests of suspects, generates a self-sustaining cycle of escalation and heightens the motivation among young Palestinians to enlist in the fight against the Israeli security forces. The danger is that as a result of the chaos, the PA will cease to function as a responsible, stable, and effective entity that encourages calm and is an authoritative address for communication with Israel. To curb this trend and give the PA an opportunity (perhaps its last) to regain control of the northern West Bank and stop the deterioration, reconstruction measures should be pursued vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, and external collaboration and support should be recruited for the effort, primarily from Jordan and the Gulf states.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

6. Difficulties in the Negotiations with Iran: Implications for Israel

Author:: Eldad Shavit and Sima Shine
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran's demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the crisis and achievement of an agreement; continued stagnation, i.e., lowintensity talks; or the collapse of the negotiations. The worst scenario for Israel is a continuation of the current situation, in which Iran could in a short time accumulate enough fissile material for weapons-grade enrichment for several nuclear facilities, while the temptation of a nuclear breakout increases. Thus, Israel should immediately formulate a new strategy regarding Iran. The government should conduct a discreet dialogue with the US administration and focus on proposals that seek to advance Israel’s military and strategic needs, including consolidating covert and effective cooperation with the countries of the region under the auspices of the United States.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

7. The Bus Attack in the Jordan Valley: The Ethos of Resistance Increasingly Shapes the Palestinian Campaign

Author:: Kobi Michael
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israel's current mode of operation against the escalation of attacks in the West Bank provides fertile ground for the intensification of the Palestinian ethos of resistance. From the perspective of the armed Palestinian operatives, the cost of the violent friction with IDF forces is not overly high. Symbols of national struggle are born each day and the sense of capability and expectations of the armed struggle are intensifying in the hearts and collective consciousness of the younger generation and provide motivation to join the struggle. But Israel's management of the conflict in the format of "mowing the grass” is reaching the limit of its effectiveness and could even lead to a largescale violent outbreak while it addresses isolated trees and not the forest, which is the real strategic challenge before it.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Resistance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. War or Peace? Turkish Moves in Syria

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and competition. These two processes appear to be contradictory, given that the Syrian regime opposes existing Turkish control of Syrian territories, and does not wish to see this control broadened. On the other hand, this may be a calculated Turkish move that aims to show the Turkish public a concerted multi-faceted effort to confront both the Kurdish underground and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Discussion of events in northern Syria and the web of Syrian and Turkish interests can be used to assess the question, which trend will prevail in Turkish-Syrian relations: normalization or escalation?
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

9. The American Withdrawal from Afghanistan, One Year Later

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed UAV of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was hiding in Kabul, has also contributed to the organization's weakness and put it on the defensive. For the US administration and from a long-term perspective, the withdrawal was the right step, which did not harm the United States' superpower standing and even enabled greater attention and resources for coping with the main challenges currently posed by China and Russia.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

10. The Israeli Economy in an Uncertain Global Environment

Author:: Tomer Fadlon and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Economic uncertainty has increased in recent months following the macroeconomic figures published by the major economies. The return of inflation, the supply chain crisis, and the war in Ukraine are leaving their mark on the global economy and arouse concern among both politicians and central banks. In contrast to most of the world's countries, Israel seems like an island of economic stability: inflation is relatively low, and while Western countries are posting negative growth, second-quarter growth in Israel exceeded the expectations. Yet despite the positive data, the slowdown among Israel's main trading partners is expected to affect the local economy, which will have to contend with a challenging economic environment in the coming months.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inflation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

11. Normalization between Turkey and Israel: Will it Last?

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss and Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The decision by Turkey and Israel to normalize their relations stems from several processes that brought the Turkish side to push for normalization and the Israeli side to respond affirmatively. Yet alongside the serious motivations of the two sides to continue this process, there are issues that could become obstacles. Among them are the developments between Israel and the Palestinians, Turkey-US relations, the dynamics of Turkey's integration in processes related to the Abraham Accords, and the nature of future Israeli plans regarding gas exports. Nonetheless, coping with challenges related to these issues will be easier with senior diplomatic representation present in both countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

12. To What Extent is Israel Prepared for the Growing Threat of UAVs?

Author:: Eden Kaduri, Liran Antebi, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking about the ways of dealing with the threat in the spheres of doctrine, development, and operations is needed. Technological and operational solutions for both the more conventional threat and a scenario of massive UAV attacks in combination with high-trajectory barrages are required. Inter alia, there should be greater reliance on lasers as a cheap solution with much higher output than the current solutions. In addition, preparations should be made for handling extreme scenarios, however unlikely.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

13. Two are Better than One: The Role of Qatar and Egypt in Gaza

Author:: Yoel Guansky and Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The cooperation between Cairo and Doha has grown stronger – a development that until recently seemed nearly impossible. What lies behind the surprising rapprochement, how did it contribute to the swift conclusion of the recent campaign in Gaza, and what are the challenges and opportunities for Israel in light of the new situation?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Qatar

14. The State Comptroller’s Report on Cities with Mixed Jewish and Arab Populations in May 2021

Author:: Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In May 2021, 520 sites were damaged when tensions peaked between the Jewish and Arab populations in Israel. The State Comptroller issued a special report on these events, focusing on the Police, the Border Police, and the country’s municipal systems. Based on the report, this article proposes policy recommendations to reduce the possibility of a revived conflagration
Topic:: Urban, Cities, Pluralism, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

15. Non-Enforcement of the Law on Appropriate Representation in Israel: Implications for Social Resilience

Author:: Itzik Izhak Dessie and Shlomo Black
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Diversity in the public sector that reflects the diversity of a national population is a moral, ethical, social, and legal obligation. However, not one of the target groups in Israel is appropriately represented in the civil service, and in some government ministries and auxiliary units these populations are not represented at all. Israel must change its approach and increase its enforcement of measures to achieve the required diversity, in order to enable equal opportunity for all.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Police, Resilience, and Social Control
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

16. Putin and Erdogan Meet in Sochi: Another Challenge to the Western Bloc

Author:: Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Arkady Mil-Man
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Presidents of Russia and Turkey held a four-hour meeting recently in Sochi, along the shores of the Black Sea, and discussed a range of subjects, from trade and energy to involvement in different combat arenas. What are the two leaders’ respective interests in their dialogue – and what should Israel conclude from the deepening cooperation between Ankara and Moscow?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Turkey

17. The Abraham Accords, Two Years On: Impressive Progress, Multiple Challenges, and Promising Potential

Author:: Meir Ben-Shabbat and David Aaronson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Broad economic relations, high-level policy meetings, and developing tourism ties: two years after the historic Abraham Accords were signed, the relations between Israel and the four states have flowered. At the same time, the potential of these relations is far from realized, the challenges remain, and Jerusalem should commit itself to strengthen the Accords – and even to expand them
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

18. Saudi Arabia and Israel: Normalization at a Snail’s Pace

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the Abraham Accords were signed, and particularly with Biden’s visit to the region, some have argued that Saudi Arabia will be the next country to normalize relations with Israel. However, complete normalization is far from imminent. What are the reasons for this, and how should Israel act toward the Saudi kingdom?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

19. The Rift in Fatah, which Threatens Security Stability, is a Challenge – and Not Only for Israel

Author:: Ali Al-Awar and Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Charges of corruption, inadequate public support, and the lack of central control – the Fatah organization, led by Abu Mazen, suffers from difficult and unprecedented problems that threaten security stability in the West Bank and might lead to a scenario in which Hamas takes control of the Palestinian Authority. Israel should act to balance the precarious situation in the territories and strengthen the status of the Chairman of the PA
Topic:: Security, Leadership, Strategic Stability, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

20. Gazan Workers in Israel: Implications for Employment Regulations

Author:: Haggy Etkes and Wifag Adnan
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: New arrangements for the employment of Gazan workers in Israel in construction and agriculture began on August 1. This article presents the findings of a study on employment of Gazans in Israel: it demonstrates the rise in income among Gazans who work in Israel, while showing the difficulty related to regulation for workers employed in the manufacturing and service industries, which did not receive permits to employ Gazans
Topic:: Labor Issues, Regulation, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

21. Operation Breaking Dawn: Following the Successful Entry, an Exit Strategy is Required

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After two days of successful fighting by Israel against Islamic Jihad, with a string of impressive achievements, the principal risk now is that Hamas will decide to emerge from the sidelines and join the campaign. This turn of events would necessarily lengthen the campaign and widen its scope. Therefore, Israel should try to end the operation, while it retains the upper hand
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

22. The Tenth NPT Review Conference: In the Shadow of Russian Aggression in Ukraine

Author:: Shimon Stein and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York, against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in itself a gross violation of the treaty; Putin’s threat to resort to nuclear weapons; the deadlock in negotiations with Iran; and more. In these difficult circumstances, the participants will hopefully be able at the very least to issue a joint statement affirming the norms underlying the NPT
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Stateliness, IDF style

Author:: Meir Elran and Asa Kasher
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The Spirt of the IDF,” the IDF ethical code formulated twenty years ago, was updated recently with a new fundamental value: “stateliness” (mamlachtiyut, in Hebrew). What did Chief of Staff Kochavi intend with his addition of the term, and how can this value be best instilled among IDF soldiers and the general public?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Ethics, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

24. China below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology

Author:: Assaf Orion and Shira Efron
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The statements issued by President Biden during his visit to the Middle East include little mention of China. However, close reading reveals that between the lines, China is quite present in the agreements reached by the President and Israel and Saudi Arabia. The dialogue on technology cooperation announced by Jerusalem and Washington, which is related directly to the Great Power competition, signals a new stage in partnership between the countries: Israel alongside the United States, even if not against China
Topic:: Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

25. The Iranian-Russian-Turkish Summit in Tehran

Author:: Raz Zimmt, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, and Arkady Mil-Man
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The three-way summit between Presidents Raisi, Putin, and Erdogan intended to present a unified front against the Western axis, which imposes various levels of sanctions on the three states. But despite the cordial photos and warm handshakes, there are serious disputes between Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara. They are rivals no less than they are partners, and it is doubtful whether their meeting will lead to any substantive gains
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

26. Cyber Challenges and Foreign Influence in the Upcoming Knesset Elections

Author:: David Siman-Tov, Tamir Hayman, and Amos Hervitz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In advance of the forthcoming Knesset elections, there are heightened efforts to obstruct foreign interference. Yet while most preventive activity focuses on technological attacks on the voting process and information systems relevant to the campaign, the efforts to grapple with malign influence on internal political discourse through the spread of fake news, verbal incitement, and more are insufficient. What should Israel do to confront the threat in the most effective fashion?
Topic:: Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

27. Tehran Heightens the Pressure as it Strives to Thwart a Regional Air Defense System

Author:: Tamir Hayman and Sima Shine
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The heightened discussion of a “regional air defense alliance” was met by increased Iranian activity to block any such measure, including explicit threats that in turn prompted rejection of the idea by senior Gulf figures. It appears that at this stage, relations between Israel and the Gulf states that remain below the radar are preferable to grandiose public statements that do match the reality on the ground
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, Air Force, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

28. Resolving the Gas Dispute with Lebanon: First Exhaust Diplomatic Efforts

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Hezbollah’s launch of UAVs at the Karish gas field was a cognitive action directed at Israel and the Lebanese, and sparked much public criticism in the Lebanese political establishment, which is eager to reach an arrangement on the gas issue. At this stage, Israel is right not to react to the UAVs militarily, and should continue to try to exhaust the diplomatic route with its northern neighbor to demarcate the maritime border, while recognizing that the Shiite organization will attempt again to challenge the balance of deterrence
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

29. Transportation and National Security

Author:: Yossi Daskal
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Congestion on the roads, traffic accidents, and rising levels of air pollution – transportation affects the health, economy, and well-being of the residents of Israeli Therefore, discussions of national security must include deliberations on improving transportation in Israel
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Public Policy, and Transportation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Five Good Years for the Campaign between Wars in Syria: What Comes Next?

Author:: Carmit Velensi and Eden Kaduri
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israeli Air Force jets, according to foreign sources, have struck targets in Syria for over five years, in order to reduce Iran’s entrenchment in the theater. Despite their impressive achievements, these attacks are not enough to curtail the threat from the northern border to any significant degree. Israel would do well to formulate a new strategy vis-à-vis Syria, tailored to the changing reality – and the sooner this begins, the better
Topic:: Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

31. Hezbollah Challenges Israel: Time to Rethink the Policy of Restraint

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israel is deterred, and as long as it does not respond to Hezbollah’s launch of UAVS at the drilling rig in the Karish gas field, Nasrallah, backed by Iran, will continue to test the limits of Israel’s restraint. Sometimes it is necessary to play different, surprising cards in order to return to previous rules of the game. Therefore, Israel should respond in the air campaign and attack the Hezbollah-operated air defense systems in Lebanon, even at the risk of escalation, which at the present time is likely to be limited
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Violence, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

32. An Israeli National Guard?

Author:: Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The establishment of the Israeli Guard was announced recently, based on lessons learned from the May 2021 clashes between Arab and Jewish Israelis. Comprising police officers and volunteers, the new body’s main purpose will be to provide the Border Police with much-needed reinforcement. This is an essential, welcome measure, no less important than the quantitative and qualitative additions to the regular police. Yet no less essential is the establishment of a genuine National Guard, which will be able to provide effective assistance in all emergency situations and mass disasters
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

33. President Biden's Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel

Author:: Tamir Hayman and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

34. Macron Put Down, France in Crisis: Implications for Israel

Author:: Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: As a result of the recent elections in France, President Macron no longer enjoys a majority in parliament, and it remains unclear how he will be able to continue to lead his country. This unusual situation points to a severe political crisis that will require the various actors to adopt or devise new political methods. Beyond the internal significance for France, what are the implications for Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Leadership, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France

35. The Race to Electric Vehicles: Technology, US-China Rivalry, and Big Money

Author:: Ariel Sobelman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In recent years Israel has become a leading player in auto tech, and China is interested in Israeli developments in a field that is expected to assume a significant role in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Therefore, it is important for Israel to define a national strategy on the issue, in order to avoid unnecessary involvement in the inter-bloc clash
Topic:: Green Technology, Innovation, Rivalry, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

36. Hezbollah’s Political Challenges following the Elections in Lebanon

Author:: Orna Mizrahi
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the Hezbollah camp was weakened in last month’s Lebanese parliamentary elections, the opposition is weak and divided. Meantime, Hezbollah maintains its status and influence, seeking to play a significant role in the next government. Nasrallah, determined to retain the organization’s independent military power, continues to try to strengthen Hezbollah’s image as a responsible national actor whose main concern is to ease Lebanon’s plight – and defend Lebanon against Israel
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Elections, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

37. The Iranian Nuclear Program Advances, with only a Slim Chance of Restoring Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Sima Shine and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the nuclear talks in Vienna were renewed over a year ago, a return to the deal is not on the horizon, and the regime of the ayatollahs has increased the pace of its violations of the deal, which will make it even harder for the parties to reach understandings. The coming weeks will be critical, and at this point the world powers, as well as Israel, must prepare for a reality where there is no agreement, accompanied by troubling Iranian progress on its nuclear program
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

38. Improving the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Outlook

Author:: Haggy Erkes and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent reports by the IMF and the World Bank emphasized the dismal fiscal situation of the Palestinian Authority, and recommended boosting foreign aid and implementing structural spending reforms. This article proposes an additional policy: a tax on work permits for Palestinians working in the Israeli econony. This measure stands to reduce the Palestinian deficit by one third, and offset some of the adverse effects of employment in Israel.
Topic:: Economics, Leadership, Fiscal Policy, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

39. Between Erdogan, Mitsotakis, and Biden: The Evolving Ankara-Athens-Washington Triangle

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss, Christoph Becker, and Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The Prime Minister of Greece no longer exists for me,” declared Turkey’s President, reflecting a break in the rapprochement seen over the past year between Ankara and Athens. What lies behind this change of approach, and how does this affect Israel’s relations with Eastern Mediterranean states?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

40. The Gulf States and the Palestinian Authority: On the Brink of Change?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Palestinian Authority leadership seeks to ease the tensions between the PA and the UAE and Bahrain – tensions that escalated after the Abraham Accords were signed. Should Israel be concerned about the expected rapprochement, or should it rather try to take advantage of the opportunities that might ensue?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gulf Nations

41. The Unavoidable Campaign to Destroy the Jenin Terrorist Hub

Author:: Kobi Michael and Ori Wertman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the current wave of terror, the IDF has focused its efforts specifically on the old-new terror capital of Jenin, which, while having had some success in thwarting attacks, has not eradicated the extensive terrorist system in the city and has contributed to the erosion of Israeli deterrence. Is it time to reconsider the course?
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

42. Growing Disagreements between President Raisi and his Conservative Rivals

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Lacking knowledge and experience”: recent weeks have seen growing criticism of Iranian President Raisi, primarily regarding his failure to deal with the country’s severe economic crisis. Political criticism is neither new nor rare in the Islamic Republic, but it is now emerging from within Raisi’s conservative camp, less than a year after his government was formed
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

43. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

44. The Cognitive War between Israel and Hamas: Implications and Recommendations

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer and David Siman-Tov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Hamas has been working for the past year, and more specifically in the current wave of terrorism, to present itself as a powerful organization that succeeds in defeating Israel – even when things do not correspond to the situation on the ground. Israel repeatedly falls into the pit that Hamas has dug, failing to reflect the relations of the military forces before both the Palestinian and Israeli public. How can we win the game of cognition?
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

45. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations

Author:: Morr Link
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

46. High-Power Laser Applications on the Future Battlefield

Author:: Yehoshua Kalisky
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Within a year we will operate a laser interception system” – Thus the Prime Minister Bennett declared at the yearly conference of the INSS. What are the differences between the various laser systems and what are the advantages and disadvantages of these types of air defense systems?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Undocumented Palestinian workers in Israel: Did the Israeli COVID-19 Policy Boost their Employment?

Author:: Haggy Etkes and Wifag Adnan
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Three of the terrorist attacks that occurred in recent weeks in Israel were carried out by undocumented workers – a phenomenon that has grown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. How did the pandemic lead to a rise in the number of undocumented workers and how can the phenomenon be reduced?
Topic:: Labor Issues, Pandemic, COVID-19, Migrant Workers, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

48. Demonstrations in Iran in Protest of the Sharp Rise in Prices of Basic Goods

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: At least three people were killed and dozens were injured and arrested in protests that erupted in southwestern Iran due to a controversial move by the government in Tehran. Until now, the scope of the protest is very limited and does not threaten the regime’s stability, but it is additional evidence of the severe economic crisis, which can be added to the long list of challenges facing President Raisi
Topic:: Economics, Protests, Demonstrations, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

49. Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Yaron Schneider
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: While weathering a political crisis, Iraq is now at a crossroads regarding the future of the state. In tandem, neighboring Sunni states, led by Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to Baghdad. What are the reasons for this development, and how is it likely to affect the Middle East, Iran’s expansion in the area, and Israel?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Economic Stability, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

50. The Struggle for De Facto Sovereignty over the Temple Mount

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: 19 Israelis were murdered in the terrorist attacks that occurred around the month of Ramadan, and once again al-Aqsa and the Temple Mount were the cause inciting the terrorists. Israel has yet to internalize that a campaign is underway for sovereignty over al-Aqsa. How should Israel act in advance of what are expected to be highly charged weeks ahead?
Topic:: Religion, Sovereignty, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

51. The Upcoming Elections in Lebanon: Dubious Possibilities for Change

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Orit Perlov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: For the first time since the public protests and collapse of the economy, Lebanon will hold elections for its 128 parliamentary seats. Yet despite the desire for change in the political system and the concerns of Hezbollah and its allies as to their standing, it is doubtful whether the elections will lead to significant change in the Land of the Cedars
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

52. One Month after the Start of the Escalation: The Fog Dissipates

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The escalation that began even before Ramadan has exacted a painful toll in Israel, and Hamas has indeed earned some achievements and improved its status. However, thus far events have not led to the organization’s desired outcome: mass demonstrations on several fronts, with the participation of Arabs from Israel, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Does Israel recognize the new challenges that Hamas attempts to pose? And what can be done now so that next year, when once again Passover and Ramadan coincide, this escalation does not recur?
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hamas, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

53. The War in Ukraine: More Western Aid and Fear of Escalation

Author:: Eldad Shavit and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The United States and other NATO countries have thus far not deviated from their policy regarding the war in Eastern Europe – military and economic assistance, with no boots on the ground. Yet the more the war continues, and while there is a chance of significant escalation, does this policy stand to change?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

54. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

55. The Russia-Ukraine War: Where Do We Go from Here?

Author:: Zvi Magen and Sophie Kobzantsev
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Two months after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the goal of a short campaign has clearly not been achieved. Russia now seeks to achieve gains while suspending the negotiations with Kyiv – both to improve its position in advance of future negotiations, and to deliver the message to the West that “you cannot stop us.”
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

56. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

57. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
Topic:: Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

58. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

59. Investigation of Russia's Crimes in Ukraine: A Turning Point for the International Criminal Court?

Author:: Ori Beeri and Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Chief Prosecutor at The Hague has already begun to investigate actions taken by Russia in the Ukrainian arena, while accelerating judicial proceedings and bureaucracy. This reflects a change of approach, which includes the prioritization of recent events, as part of an effort to strengthen the status of the Court. How will this affect the investigation of the war in Eastern Europe – and the investigation concerning Israel?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, International Crime, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

60. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?

Author:: Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

61. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West

Author:: Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine

62. The Ukrainian Civil Front – An Interim Assessment

Author:: Meir Elran, Uri Bar-Yosef, and Zvi Magen
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Most of Ukraine’s civilian population demonstrates a high degree of steadfastness during the war, rallying around the flag – and around the president. Nonetheless, the challenge to Ukrainian national resilience remains high, given the huge waves of migration, the losses in the hinterland, and the severe damage to national infrastructure and the local economy – which could have decisive effects on Ukraine’s ability to recover from the war
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

63. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver

Author:: Gal Perl Finkel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

64. After the Russian “Ruse,” China Looks for New Friends

Author:: Galia Lavi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would seem that Beijing and Moscow should be a united front against the West. But in actuality, China has been surprised by the scale of the Russian aggression and is now rethinking its position in the geopolitical arena. How will this affect the Middle East?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

65. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

66. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East

67. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine

Author:: Noa Shusterman
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

68. Intelligence and the War in Ukraine: The Limited Power of Public Disclosure

Author:: Ofek Reimer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West began to disclose intelligence material on Putin’s plans – thereby using a policy tool that brings with it both advantages and risks. What did the intelligence disclosures achieve, and what might Israel learn from this experience?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

69. Will Russia Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Author:: Helit Barel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: One month into the war in Ukraine, the nuclear threat remains. Will Russia’s President decide to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, and thereby shatter the 77 years of nuclear deterrence? From a rational perspective, there is little likelihood of this occurring, but thus far Putin has not succeeded in realizing his goals in the Ukrainian theater – and Russia has a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

70. The United States and the Ukrainian Crisis: Implications for the Internal Arena and the Great Power Competition

Author:: Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: With the crisis in Eastern Europe continuing, Washington is maintaining a steady policy: military assistance to Ukraine and economic isolation of Russia, without “boots on the ground.” How is this policy perceived in the United States, particularly in advance of the midterm elections this coming November? How does the war influence the administration’s priorities that were outlined at the outset of its tenure?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

71. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East

72. Underreporting of Russian Investments Abroad: Are the Sanctions Undermined?

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: There are indications of underreporting to Western authorities of Russian investments worth about 90 billion dollars, when Russian reports of investments abroad are compared with Western data. If correct, this undermines the effectiveness of the asset freezing that is part of the sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

73. The War in Ukraine: The Challenge of Shaping an Endgame

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although nearly three weeks have passed since Putin invaded Ukraine, there is no framework for an endgame on the horizon. While the United States and the West would like to bring Putin to his knees as he sinks deeper in the Ukrainian mud, Washington must recognize that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

74. The Second Republic of Iran: Is Iran Moving toward a Constitutional Change?

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: An initiative to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary system is once again on the agenda of the Islamic Republic, and this time enjoys support among conservatives as well as in the reformist-pragmatic camp – all for their respective reasons. Is there any viable possibility of this constitutional change in Iran?
Topic:: Governance, Constitution, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

75. Is Ukraine Poised to Join NATO and the European Union?

Author:: Oden Eran and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are more and more voices in the West calling for Kiev’s acceptance into NATO and the European Union. However, this is not the time for rapid measures. Now that Putin has backed himself int a corner, the United States and Europe, in parallel with the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia and the assistance to Ukraine, must leave Moscow a way out
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and North America

76. Putin’s Dilemma

Author:: Ofer Shelah
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After more than two weeks of war in Ukraine, initial conclusions can already be drawn. Chief among these is the realization that force application in complicated conditions can confront a decision maker with a serious dilemma, in which precisely a military achievement may destroy any possibility of scoring a political achievement
Topic:: Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

77. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace

Author:: Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

78. Germany and the Ukraine Crisis: End of the Age of Illusions

Author:: Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political-security approach of the last decades, and recent speeches in the Bundestag reflect the government’s intention to make system-wide changes in security orientation. Germany must also understand how it missed warning signs from Russia over the years, and formulate a clear policy that addresses the emerging worrisome trends
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

79. A Rising and Falling Alarm: A Strategy for a Joint Exercise in the Home Front Command

Author:: Liron Donnell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The incoming chief of staff of the Home Front Command responds to an article by INSS researcher Meir Elran. She contends that contrary to the claim that the national home front exercise held this past November realized only part of its potential, the exercise in fact met all of its goals and saw many solid achievements. Moreover, the criticism of the event addressed issues that cannot be resolved in a single exercise
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

80. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Legal Aspects

Author:: Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Ori Beeri
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has been the object of significant legal pressure. While the various legal measures have no power to stop the bloody war, they deliver a powerful, unequivocal message: any state that flagrantly violates international world and undermines the world order will suffer isolation, condemnation, sanction, and criminal investigations. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history
Topic:: Military Strategy, Law, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

81. Hezbollah's Efforts to Restore its Domestic Standing: The Israeli Card

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The launch of a drone into Israeli territory this past February was yet another offensive cognitive activity by Hezbollah, intended to mask its deteriorating situation – in the domestic arena, stemming from the growing criticism of the organization in advance of the coming elections, scheduled for May, and vis-à-vis Israel, given its difficulty to maintain the “deterrence equation” that it defined. Jerusalem should expect additional acts of this sort, while preparing for a future situation in which the attacks become a security threat
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

82. Qatar’s Regional and International Standing is on the Rise

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: With the war in Ukraine and the possible energy shortage, Qatar’s international status as the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) has risen. What opportunities now lie before Doha, and how might this situation affect Israel?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Qatar and Gulf Nations

83. The Ukraine Crisis: An Interim Analysis

Author:: Eldad Shavit, Zvi Magen, and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began only days ago, it is already clear that with this belligerence Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

84. The Attacks in Sri Lanka and Trends in Salafi Jihadist Activity

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The recent suicide attack in Sri Lanka, launched by a local group linked to the Islamic State, targeted the symbols of Christianity and Western tourists and businesspeople. The attack aimed to terrorize Sri Lankan citizens, drive a wedge between them and the government, and foment discord between the various ethnic groups. It demonstrated anew that the lack of effective cooperation and intelligence sharing between the intelligence, security, and enforcement agencies is a central factor in the success of terror groups to carry out their plans. The military defeat of the Islamic State does not herald the destruction of the organization or the end of its activity - quite the opposite. The Salafi jihadist ideology and the modus operandi represented by the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates continue to inspire terrorists, whether they are directly or indirectly linked to them, or see them as a model for imitation. Details and the lessons of the Sri Lanka attack, if properly learned, will help prevent or obstruct future terror plans of the Islamic State and its supporters – plans that are expected to challenge many countries in the years to come.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: South Asia, Asia, and Sri Lanka

85. The Rising Crisis between the United States and Iran

Author:: Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After a year in which Iran opted for "strategic patience," in the hope that European nations would compensate for the United States sanctions, it now seeks to present a price tag for the US measures against it, and has thus embarked on a response comprising action in three realms: nuclear, military, and oil exports from the Gulf. In the current circumstances, Iran and the United States are demanding conditions that would make a resumption of negotiations difficult, although both sides apparently understand that dialogue may ultimately be the less dangerous option for them. The latest developments embody the potential for escalation and miscalculation that is liable to affect Israel's security, and therefore the security cabinet should convene to craft an appropriate policy for the near, medium, and long terms.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Oil, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America

86. The Proposed Changes to Judicial Oversight of Government Powers: Justified Measures or an Erosion of Democracy?

Author:: Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Amid the coalition negotiations underway in Israel there is a heated debate over various proposals regarding significant changes to the legal oversight of governmental and parliamentary work. Remarkable throughout the debate of these proposals is the lack of regard to their impact on the preservation and promotion of the character of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, and instead, there is a worrisome focus on political and personal motives. Against this background, it is possible to propose several recommendations. First, in the current debate, the Court is accused of "stealing democracy" and of being a political institution with a blatantly left wing agenda. This incorrect premise, which undermines the ability to conduct a public debate in constructive fashion and erodes the legitimacy of the Court and the public's faith in the Court, must be reversed. Second, there is room for discussion on appropriate constitutional changes. Democratic countries around the world have differing successful constitutional structures, and there is no "one right answer." Yet any future change must be carried out through a focused discussion that incorporates all relevant parties, including politicians, judges, and academics with expertise in the field. Finally, whatever the eventual constitutional changes, they must not undermine the basic principles of the separation of powers, the rule of law, and the power of the Court to practice effective oversight of the government. These are essential building blocks for proper democratic rule.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Constitution, and Secularism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

87. The Mueller Report: What it Includes, What it Omits, and What it Teaches

Author:: Itai Brun and Tehilla Shwartz Altschuler
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: On April 18, 2019, the US Department of Justice released a redacted version of the full report (448 pages) submitted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller about Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. The report consists of two parts: the first presents the outcome of the investigation into Russia’s involvement in the election and draws conclusions regarding the presence or absence of a conspiracy or illegal coordination between the Russians and the Trump campaign; the second part deals with President Trump’s possible obstruction of justice regarding the FBI investigation into the Russian intervention and the investigation by the Special Counsel himself. This essay deals with the first part, i.e., the results of the investigation into the connection between the Russians and Trump for the purpose of influencing the election results. The report reflects accurately the US criminal law that deals with conspiracy and illegal coordination regarding elections. At the same time, it exposes a gap in the nation’s conceptual, organizational, legal, and technological preparedness to confront the possibilities that the digital space provides to undermine – internally and externally – the democratic process. Israel suffers from the same gap, and it is therefore imperative that the state confront it before the next Knesset election.
Topic:: Crime, Elections, Election Interference, and Investigations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and North America

88. Concerns for Jordan's Stability

Author:: Oden Eran
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In the first years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the common assessment was that the Hashemite Kingdom was able to cope with the challenges it confronted, despite the various internal and external political pressures, including the demographic pressure created by the wave of refugees from Syria. However, cracks in this image of stability have begun to emerge, and there are increasing indications that the developments in the country could lead to a serious undermining of the regime, with long term strategic ramifications. The destabilization process could, for example, be sparked by protracted mass demonstrations, some of them violent, a loss of control over the situation by security forces, and a loss of the palace's control over parliamentary decisions.
Topic:: Popular Revolt, Political stability, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Jordan

89. Does Hezbollah Want a War with Israel Now?

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Voices in the Arab media have recently suggested that war between Israel and Hezbollah may erupt this coming summer. This debate began even before the rise in tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, which once again brought to the fore the possibility of Iran using Hezbollah as a proxy against Israel. In recent speeches, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acted quickly to calm the waters, while delivering messages designed to deter Israel from taking measures against Hezbollah. Nasrallah asserted that Hezbollah was capable of striking strategic sites on the Israeli home front and conquering parts of the Galilee. These statements indicate that as far as Hezbollah is concerned, the current circumstances are not convenient for a conflict with Israel, due to Hezbollah's continuing involvement in the war in Syria and a wish to avoid undermining Hezbollah's recent achievements in the Lebanese political system. Also important is Hezbollah's deepening economic plight, resulting in part from American sanctions against the organization and its patron, Iran, although these economic difficulties have not yet affected Hezbollah's continued investment in its military buildup and deployment for a future war with Israel. Nevertheless, even if Hezbollah has no interest in a large scale conflict with Israel at this time, escalation as a result of particular measures by Israel in Lebanon and the organization's response, or from Hezbollah's own actions against Israel aimed at serving Iranian interests, cannot be ruled out. Israel must therefore prepare in advance for the possibility of a military campaign in the north.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf

90. Russia and Iran: Is the Syrian Honeymoon Over?

Author:: Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The rescue of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by the pro-Assad coalition, comprising Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies, led to the victory of the regime over the rebels; the coalition’s achievements stem primarily from the effective cooperation between Iran and Russia since 2015 in fighting the rebels. Now, with the battles over, despite shared interests in consolidating the Assad regime, inherent tensions between Russia and Iran regarding influence in Syria have emerged in greater relief. Yet despite the disagreements, this it is not a zero-sum game between Russia and Iran. Both continue to cooperate on a range of issues in the Syrian arena and beyond. Iran for its part continues to see its consolidation in Syria as a strategic objective, and despite difficulties that have emerged, it seems that Tehran remains determined to continue, even if to a lesser extent than originally planned. After the success of Israel’s military actions to halt Iran’s military consolidation in Syria, Jerusalem should maximize the political potential and the shared interest of Russia and the United States to stabilize the situation in Syria, and to reduce Iran’s influence and capabilities in the country.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, and Syria

91. The Begin Doctrine: The Lessons of Osirak and Deir ez-Zor

Author:: Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The decision to attack a nuclear reactor in enemy territory is one of the most difficult decisions that an Israeli leader may face. Prime Minister Menahem Begin drafted the unofficial doctrine that is named for him, “the Begin Doctrine,” seeking to prevent countries hostile to Israel calling for its destruction from developing a nuclear military capability.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

92. Preparations for the Nakba March: Hamas’s Cognitive Campaign

Author:: Kobi Michael and Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is heavily engaged in preparations for a the “Great March of Return,” scheduled for May 14, 2018, when thousands of Gaza’s Palestinians will march toward the security fence and position themselves in tent cities along the Israeli border. The event is intended to highlight the Palestinian refugee issue and connect it to the plight of those living the Gaza Strip
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Gaza

93. The Ministry of Defense Budget for 2019: Major Issues

Author:: Shmuel Even
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: According to the state budget for 2019, approved by the Knesset on March 15, 2018, the Defense Ministry budget will stand at NIS 72.9 billion gross and NIS 55.3 billion net (11.5 percent of the state budget). The Defense Ministry’s budget for 2019 represents the fourth year in the IDF’s five-year plan (the Gideon Plan for 2016-2020), during which it must start to formulate a new five-year plan
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

94. Israel's Qatari Dilemma

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Qatar’s support for Hamas and its investment in the Gaza Strip, though based more on pragmatism than on ideological identification, suit its foreign policy, which supports political Islam and aims to increase Doha’s influence in the Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Israel

95. The Gas Deal with Egypt: Israel Deepens its Anchor in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Oden Eran and Elai Rettig
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Presumably the government of Israel played an important role in securing the $15 billion natural gas deal signed recently between the owners of Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan fields and the Egyptian Dolphinus Holding. For his part, Egypt’s President el-Sisi stated that with this deal Egypt has gained a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, positioned itself as a regional energy center
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

96. Iran in a Changing Strategic Environment

Author:: Meir Litvak, Emily Landau, and Ephraim Kam
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: This collection contains essays analyzing the state of Iran’s nuclear program and the deterrent relationship between the United States and Iran since the nuclear agreement was presented; Iran’s relations with specific Middle East states; and dominant political and social issues within Iran, and their influence on Iran’s foreign policy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran

97. Turkey and Iran: Two Regional Powers and the Relations Pendulum

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, despite periodic hostile statements on the one hand and high level visits on the other, Turkey-Iran relations have experienced few surprising developments. As Hakki Uygur has argued, “The Turkish-Iranian relationship can be considered one of the most consistent and predictable sets of relations in the Middle East region.” During this time, Turkish-Iranian relations have fluctuated within a defined range whereby despite the intense competition, they never reach the point of deep crisis. However, even in the case of shared interests, the two states have not proved capable of achieving close strategic cooperation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran and Turkey

98. Iran in the Wake of the Protests: Voices of Change without Change

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Some two months after the outbreak of the most significant wave of protest in Iran since the 2009 riots, the Iranian authorities are endeavoring to bring the situation back to normal, though various pockets of protest are still discernible. While the wave of protest began to wane already a week after it broke out, demonstrations on a limited scale are ongoing in various parts of the country, mainly concerning wage withholding and the collapse of pension and saving funds. There are also some local instances of defiance against the regime, including anti-establishment graffiti in the public domain, strikes, torched banks, and defaced posters with the Supreme Leader’s picture.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran

99. Russian Intervention in the US Presidential Elections: The New Threat of Cognitive Subversion

Author:: Yotam Rosner and David Siman-Tov
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The indictment filed by the United States Justice Department on February 16, 2018 against 13 Russian citizens and three Russian companies regarding attempts to promote the candidacy of Donald Trump for the US presidency, amounting to intervention in the country’s political system, is a phenomenon enabling interference in the “consciousness” of another country
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

100. Germany-Israel Relations: Unique or Normal?

Author:: Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent events and statements by German figures indicate a change in Germany’s attitude to Israel. What for decades was a unique bilateral relationship – grounded in the memory of the Holocaust and the commitment that Germany consequently made to Israel’s existence and security – has been increasingly shaped by considerations of realpolitik that formerly played a secondary role.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel and Germany

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS