Publishing Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

101. The Digital Technology Environment and Europe’s Capacity to Act

Author:: Tyson Barker
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This monitoring study explores the EU’s capacity to act in digital technology across five categories: 1) how the EU defines the problem it is attempting to address; 2) how the EU sets an agenda; 3) how the EU formulates policy; 4) how the EU implements policy; and 5) to what degree European policy has an impact at home and globally. Ultimately, the EU’s policy success will be determined by its ability to shore up areas where it is weakest and establish constant and interactive benchmarking to create honest performance assessments. The EU must set out clearly defined objectives that confront the tough questions of “what is essential” and “what is nice to have.”
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Europe

102. Women and Minors in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Over the past years, the role of gender issues in addressing and preventing Islamist extremism has received increased attention. Since the fall of the ‘caliphate’ of the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), most of the returnees to Western European countries have been women who had joined ISIS and other Jihadist organizations. Many travelled with children who had been brought along on the initial journey or who were born abroad. Working with women and minors, especially returnees, has become one of the main challenges for actors in tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Women, Islamic State, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Middle East

103. Communicating in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Tertiary prevention of (violent) Islamist extremism includes measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in liberty in their efforts to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society. Actors in tertiary prevention thus intervene in a multitude of contexts and work with various stakeholders. The growing understanding of the complexity of radicalization and deradicalization processes as well as practical experiences leave no doubt that multi-agency cooperation and communication is crucial to be able to reach most potential clients. However, one of the main challenges of professionals working in tertiary prevention is to identify potential points of contact, set up effective frameworks for sharing information, and establish long term relationships.
Topic:: Security, Communications, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Europe

104. Towards More Effective Deradicalization: Urgent Recommendations for Addressing Violent Islamist Extremism

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Violent Islamist extremism is still one of the biggest threats to internal security as well as societal cohesion in the EU. As a crucial part of any comprehensive counterstrategy, tertiary prevention encompasses measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in society to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, European Union, Islamism, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

105. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:: Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Science and Technology, Elections, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

106. China’s Nuclear Arms Race: How Beijing Is Challenging US Dominance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Elisabeth Suh and Leonie Reicheneder
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: China is building up its military capabilities. Not only is the country investing heavily in conventional arms, but it is also modernizing its nuclear weapons. To secure its nuclear deterrent, China is diversifying its delivery systems. The United States sees this as a challenge to its military superiority in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington and Beijing are both fueling a qualitative arms race by investing in new capabilities. This spiral poses risks to stability that affect Germany and Europe as well.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Military
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

107. COVID-19 and European Defense: Voices from the Capitals

Author:: Christian Mölling, Sophia Becker, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented challenges to decisionmakers across the globe. It certainly affects European and transatlantic defense cooperation. DGAP aims to generate valuable insights into the pandemic’s effects on European defense. Therefore, we have asked leading experts from key EU and NATO partner countries for their views. Together, the contributions provide an overview that reveals trends and tendencies in European defense in a changing security environment.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

108. The EU’s Strategic Compass and Its Four Baskets: Recommendations to Make the Most of It

Author:: Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Workshop: On September 21, 2020, DGAP and the German Ministry of Defence hosted an expert workshop on the Strategic Compass and its four baskets. Participating think-tankers from across Europe were invited to provide input and discuss their ideas in four break-out sessions. Three guiding questions structured the input and debate during the workshop and its break-out sessions: In your opinion, which concrete topics or issues should be addressed at the strategic level in the four thematic blocks? What critical points do you anticipate concerning diverging threat perceptions of the individual EU member states? In your view, what measures would be necessary for the Strategic Compass to generate real added value for an EU capable of action?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, European Union, Partnerships, Crisis Management, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe

109. Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power

Author:: Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Daniela Schwarzer, Christian Mölling, and Sophia Becker
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) convened a strategy group of experts and former government officials from the United States and Europe over the past year to discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relationship and to propose a strategy to revive and strengthen it.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

110. Preventing Recidivism of Islamist Extremists

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Dresden and in a Paris suburb in October 2020 as well as the shooting in Vienna in November 2020 painfully reminded the European public of the threat that Islamist extremism and terrorism continue to pose in Europe. Especially worrysome is the fact that two of these attacks were apparently carried out by recently released terrorist offenders. In both cases, the alleged attackers had been in contact with deradicalization programs. This raises the question of how to prevent or reduce recidivism and potential violence.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, France, Syria, and Austria

111. Connectivity in Eurasia: Geopolitical Chances for the EU

Author:: Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: As the coronavirus pandemic fuels technological and geopolitical competition among the great powers, Europe’s relations with China and Russia are facing new challenges and risks. Still, the reconfiguration of power in Eurasia also brings unexpected opportunities for European actors in the area of connectivity. To seize them, the EU needs to reconcile its aspiration to be a globally accepted “normative-regulatory” power with both its limited financial means and its more assertive attitude to geopolitics.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Connectivity
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Eurasia

112. The EU’s Role in Addressing Lebanon’s Multiple Crises

Author:: Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Beirut Port blast (BPB) has revealed the fundamental failure of the Lebanese political system, but deep democratic reforms will take time and are fraught with risks. Given the US withdrawal and the extreme tensions in the region, the EU has a critical role to play in addressing the short-term humanitarian crisis, responding to the economic and financial situation, and providing a forum for civil society empowerment. If it fails to do so, the price is further geopolitical destabilization.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Geopolitics, Finance, Crisis Management, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon

113. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like

Author:: Stefan Meister
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Leadership, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Libya, Germany, and Syria

114. City Diplomacy: The EU’s Hidden Capacity to Act

Author:: Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Under the auspices of the EU, mayors are beginning to act like diplomats, brokering deals and defusing geopolitical disputes. On the one hand, such “city diplomacy” offers benefits: cities are reaching spots that the EU ordinarily cannot, flipping conventional hierarchies and making big issues seem small. On the other, it is potentially destabilizing in an era in which the exercise of power can have far-reaching consequences. Harnessing the activism of cities will be difficult, but not impossible.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Political Activism, European Union, and Cities
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Belarus

115. The Rule of Law in the EU Budget: Backing Down Is Too High a Price for the EU to Pay

Author:: Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Siawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU’s new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe’s South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair’s bargaining positions – and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.
Topic:: Government, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

116. Breaking the Transatlantic Data Trilemma: The EU Must Step Up Its Approach to EU-US Data Flows

Author:: Tyson Barker
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Euro-American data relationship is deeply troubled. In fact, it now faces an impossible “trilemma” among three core policy objectives: bulk intelligence collection, open transatlantic digital commerce, and the EU’s fundamental rights. The EU needs to take action if it is to protect the economically critical transatlantic data corridor and maintain the tech leadership role Europe wants.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Data
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

117. Upgrading Europe’s Civilian Crisis Management: A Strategic Planning Process in Ten Steps

Author:: Florence Schimmel and Christian Mölling
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The European Union sees civilian CSDP missions as a hallmark of its foreign policy. But these missions are implemented ad hoc, without any kind of systematic or strategic planning. As a result, the EU does not have the right capabilities to address essential challenges. Capability-based planning organized into a ten-step process offers a much better way. Existing EU initiatives can be used to kick-start a new approach.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Crisis Management, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Europe

118. Exploring EU Member States’ Good Practices: Incentives for More Secondment into Civilian CSDP Missions

Author:: Carina Böttcher
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Civilian CSDP missions rely on EU member states to staff them with skilled experts via the instrument of secondment. But the rate of seconded personnel in missions has decreased notably over the last ten years. The key to reversing this trend is addressing obstacles at the national level that hinder the recruitment and deployment of civilian experts with specialized profiles. Targeted incentives could help overcome some of these obstacles.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

119. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade

Author:: Martin Sieg
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Europe and Moldova

120. EU Trade Policy Reform: Levelling the Playing Field in a New Geo-Economic Environment

Author:: Claudia Schmucker and Stormy-Annika Mildner
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Today, trade policy is used more and more often to achieve geopolitical goals. To defend European interests in this new geo-economic environment, the EU must recalibrate its unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral trade toolbox. While the EU needs to counter the increasingly unlevel international playing field, self-sufficiency is not a viable option. The strength of the EU depends on its openness and integration in world markets.
Topic:: Economics, Reform, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

121. Protests in Russia: Supporting Systemic Change Prior to 2020’s Elections

Author:: Marina Solntseva
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Russia postponed its national vote on constitutional changes to July 1, 2020. Due to restrictions on freedom of movement and assembly from COVID-19, mass protests are unlikely to result. Nevertheless, managing growing social discontent may well be the Kremlin’s next big challenge as it prepares for September’s regional and parliamentary elections. Given its upcoming EU presidency and Council of Europe chairmanship, Germany could make a positive difference in protecting human rights and EU values in Russia.
Topic:: Human Rights, Elections, European Union, and Protests
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

122. Presidential Election in Belarus Tensions Are Likely to Prevail

Author:: András Rácz
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The impending presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, is highly likely to result in the smooth victory of incumbent Alexandr Lukashenko. Despite this fact, the unprecedented – and still growing – politicization of Belarusian society constitutes a challenge to the regime that will not fade even after a clear-cut election. The resulting tensions will require more diplomatic attention from Germany and the European Union.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Society, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Germany, and Belarus

123. The US Troop Withdrawal Plan: Bogus Strategic Claims and a Warning Signal for Europe

Author:: Heinrich Brauß
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: President Trump wants to withdraw US troops from Germany because it spends too little on defense. US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, however, is trying to present the decision as the result of a strategic analysis. That seems grotesque. The withdrawal not only weakens NATO, but also the security of Europe and America’s ability to act. The Europeans must finally close their capability gaps, and Germany must make its armed forces fully operational earlier than planned.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

124. Poland’s New Foreign Minister: Orbiting Closer to the Center of Power

Author:: Adam Traczyk
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Zbigniew Rau, who was appointed foreign minister on August 26, will help align the trajectory of Polish diplomacy with the government’s general line. His appointment fits into the logic of a larger government reshuffle, expected this fall, which aims for a greater centralization of power. His higher standing in the governing PiS party may, however, halt the gradual loss of relevance of Poland’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Belarus

125. Britain’s Reckoning with the Future

Author:: Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Brexit talks have entered extra time. If the UK is to leave the EU in an orderly manner, it needs a deal in the next four weeks. The trouble is that, as the prospect of leaving becomes more concrete, the government has finally recognized that it needs to honor the promises it has made to voters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is struggling to reconcile his vague pledges with real world constraints – both internationally and domestically.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

126. Von der Leyen’s Second Chance: The “State of the Union” Address Is Her Make-Or-Break-Moment

Author:: Julian Rappold
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Ursula von der Leyen’s first ‘State of the Union’ speech is an opportunity for her to reassert her political agenda under the conditions of COVID-19 and to set the tone for her four remaining years in office. The summit agreement in July on a recovery strategy was perceived as a leap forward for the EU but fell short of von der Leyen’s ambitions. Fault lines between member states are deepening, and interinstitutional cooperation is on the wane. This is a make-or-break moment for the Commission President.
Topic:: European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

127. Macron Looks East: The French president’s visit to the Baltics offers an opportunity for closer coordination with Germany on Russia policy

Author:: Claire Demesmay and Milan Nič
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s European policy is to improve the position of his country in the Eastern European member states of the European Union. Although this is not a change of strategy, but only a new method, it creates favorable conditions for intensified Franco-German dialogue on European strategic issues
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, France, Germany, and Baltic States

128. Mismatched Expectations are Straining EU-Ukraine Relations: Strengthening Mutual Trust and Credibility Should Remain Key Priority

Author:: Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Despite welcoming signs from the recent EU-Ukraine Summit, the underlying problems still loom large in this special relationship. The EU is running out of tools to incentivize more difficult reforms, and Ukraine is running out of arguments why it is unable to tackle corruption, oligarchs, and consolidate rule of law. With growing geopolitical turmoil in the region, a further strengthening of this partnership should be a priority. The risk of an increasing anti-Western backlash in Ukraine should not be underestimated.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

129. War in NagornoKarabakh A Two-Track Strategy for the EU

Author:: András Rácz
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: After two weeks of heavy fighting, the new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to escalate further. International actors have so far been unable to broker a ceasefire. In this case, the EU, with its limited leverage, can add most value by leading a response to the inevitable humanitarian catastrophe. EU diplomatic efforts should be led by France and Germany, coordinated with other member states, and also with Russia, to the extent necessary.
Topic:: Diplomacy, War, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, France, Germany, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

130. Avoiding “Cuba-sur-Calais” and Other Misadventures on Brexit Island

Author:: Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: British political institutions have shown resilience during the Brexit crisis. London apparently believes it has the scope to put EU talks behind it and recalibrate its position in the world. The British government is carrying out an integrated review of defense, aid, and foreign policy and preparing its presidency of the COP26 climate talks and G7. By contrast, its neighbors are gripped by the notion of Britain’s further constitutional deterioration. Their perceptions could well become self-fulfilling.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Politics, Brexit, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

131. The Problem with Germany’s Masterful Crisis Presidency

Author:: Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: A crisis can bring out the best in Germany’s European policy, resulting in its selfless embrace of deeper integration. But sometimes crises require Germany to lead from the front rather than melt selflessly into the background. On such occasions, Berlin has seemed a little too keen to stress that it is taking action under severe constraints. While Germany’s EU presidency showcased both tendencies, its shift toward crisis-driven realism risks overshadowing its strides for a better Europe.
Topic:: Politics, Domestic Politics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

132. Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. Young voters were strikingly absent in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and in the first municipal elections in May 2018, only 33.7 percent of Tunisians cast their votes. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011. Especially in Tunisia’s historically marginalized regions, these issues remain a key challenge.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, Fragile States, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, and Tunisia

133. Morocco’s SocioEconomic Challenges: Employment, Education, and Migration – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Even though the Moroccan king’s readiness to introduce reforms in response to the mass protests in 2011 has prevented the kind of radical change occurring in many other countries in the MENA region and has maintained the country’s relative stability, Morocco’s social peace remains fragile. Social unrest has flared recurrently, most prominently in the Rif region, as socio-economic grievances persist. The country continues to suffer from significant regional disparities, a poor education system, and high unemployment, especially among the young.
Topic:: Education, Migration, Employment, Protests, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Morocco

134. Socio-Economic Challenges and the Impact of Regional Dynamics on Jordan: Employment, Social Cohesion, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Jordan’s stability is severely challenged by socio-economic hardship. The country is plagued by high un-employment rates, an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of around 94 percent, corruption, and dismal social ser-vices. The fight against terrorism has also resulted in further infringement of rights such as freedom of expression. These grievances have led to a series of protests and strikes in the past two years; the latest strike by teachers has had a far-reaching impact on the public.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Employment, Economy, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Unemployment, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Jordan

135. Jordan’s Socio-Economic Woes and Foreign Policy Employment, Trade, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Grievances have been growing over Jordan’s socio-economic and political problems, including high public debt, a significant current account deficit, and high unemployment. In June 2018, former Prime Minister Hani al-Mulki was forced to resign after mass protests swept the country in response to a new income tax law proposal. Jordan’s socio-economic challenges are further augmented by its challenging neighborhood. This includes the conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq, the threat posed by extremist actors in the region as well as the impact which the Gulf Cooperation Council’s crisis over the blockade of Qatar has had on Jordan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Employment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

136. Socio-Economic Development and Violent Extremism in Morocco Morocco’s Regional Policy, Migration and (De-)Radicalization – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Similar to many other countries in the region, violent extremist groups and ideologies pose a significant threat to Moroccan society and the stability of the country. In response, the government has pursued a highly security-based approach, which has resulted in the arrest of over 3,000 (alleged) jihadis and the dismantling of 186 terrorist cells between 2002 and 2018. While the root causes are multi- faceted, Morocco’s ongoing socio-economic challenges, which have reinforced economic and political grievances, have fueled radicalization. For this reason, some have demanded that the government prioritize greater domestic engagement instead of increasing investment in countries south of the Sahara.
Topic:: Security, Development, Migration, Violent Extremism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

137. The Tornado Complex Conflicting Goals & Possible Solutions for the New German Combat Aircraft

Author:: Christian Mölling and Heinrich Brauß
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The decision about the successor aircraft for the Tornado is important not just for Europe’s security and for Germany’s role in NATO. It also has consequences for the future of the defense industry in Germany and Europe. Finally, whether the choice is made in favor of a European or a US solution will impact both the transatlantic and the Franco-German relationship.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Weapons, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and United States of America

138. Germany’s Role in NATO’s Nuclear Sharing The Purchasing Decision for the Tornado’s Successor Aircraft

Author:: Heinrich Brauß and Christian Mölling
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany will need to replace its aging “Tornado” combat aircraft from 2025. To date, the federal government is considering purchasing F-18 aircraft from the United States or refitting Eurofighter planes. Buying state-of-the-art F-35 planes has been ruled out. Given Russia’s deployment of new intermediate-range missiles on its Western territory, this decision should be reconsidered.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Nuclear Power, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

139. An Eastern Policy Update, but No Upgrade: The EU needs a more ambitious Eastern Partnership strategy

Author:: Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The EU is set to adopt a new Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy at a summit in June. This is strategically important for it and for its eastern neighborhood, where other powers like Russia and China pursue competing interests. As the policymaking process stands and given the tight deadline, however, the EU will only update and not upgrade the EaP framework due to EU states’ diverging interests. Brussels and Berlin will need to keep the EaP on the agenda after the summit to safeguard the EU’s transformative power in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

140. How Leaders Can Stop Corona from Undermining the EU: The Health and Economic Crises Require Coordinated Handling

Author:: Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Governments have to devise a more forward-looking, collective response. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Political stability, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

141. A New Risk to the EU from Coronavirus Viktor Orbán’s Hungary

Author:: András Rácz
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Political leaders could abuse the coronavirus crisis to undermine democracy. Europe’s biggest risk is Hungary. In late March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through a law that would empower him to rule by decrees with no specified time limit. If he succeeds, it will undermine the European Union’s core principles, making the EU even more fragmented and difficult to manage once the pandemic is over.
Topic:: Government, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

142. Coronavirus in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood: Why Brussels Needs to Scale Up Its Support

Author:: Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: While the magnitude of the current pandemic is still unknown, Eastern Europe might be facing a major regional catastrophe. The six countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) have dysfunctional health-care systems and lack resources and protective equipment for their doctors and hospitals. The European Commission’s offer of immediate assistance is good news. However, much more will be needed to help the EU’s eastern partners fight the coronavirus and mitigate the socioeconomic impact of this crisis.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Europe and Brussels

143. Time for a Corona Fund: How a Coalition of Willing Member States Can Shore Up the EU Economy

Author:: Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: While the ECB has already taken bold steps, the EU member states need to support its efforts by committing to underwrite together some of the ﬁscal costs of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The best option would be to launch a Corona Fund with the power to mobilize 1 trillion EUR—support for such a fund need not be unanimous.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

144. Deterrence and Defense in Times of COVID-19 Europe’s Political Choices

Author:: Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, and Sophia Becker
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe is headed for a recession that will dwarf the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis. The impact on national defense sectors could be devastating. But as crisis and responses are still in the early stage, governments can still take measures to mitigate the effect on defense. To safeguard political and defense priorities, EU and NATO States need to act jointly and decisively.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Deterrence, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

145. Issue Paper: Good Practices in Evaluating Tertiary PVE Programs

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The transnational dimension of violent extremism calls for a comprehensive approach to prevention. International exchange of knowledge is crucial to enable an effective response. In addition, while more and more countries have increasingly focused on the prevention of violent extremism (PVE) (as opposed to purely repressive counter terrorism measures), actors need to be able to understand and demonstrate which measures work as well as how and why they do.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe

146. Towards European Anticipatory Governance for Artifi cial Intelligence

Author:: Georgios Kolliarakis and Isabella Hermann
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This report presents the findings of the Interdisciplinary Research Group “Responsibility: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence” of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the Technology and Global Affairs research area of DGAP. In September 2019, they brought leading experts from research and academia together with policy makers and representatives of standardization authorities and technology organizations to set framework conditions for a European anticipatory governance regime for artificial intelligence (AI).
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe

147. Pushing the EU to a Hamiltonian Moment: Germany’s Court Ruling and the Need to Build a Fiscal Capacity Force a Constitutional Debate

Author:: Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The recent ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the ECB was an economic and political bombshell. The deep controversy that resulted – within Germany and on a European scale – illustrates that the ambiguity surrounding the euro area’s legal order and architecture may have reached its limit. The ruling, combined with the plan to build a fiscal capacity to address the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis, presents the EU with an important opportunity to complete and solidify the euro area.
Topic:: European Union, Constitution, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

148. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability

Author:: Gerrit Kurtz
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany

149. How 'Democratic Security' Can Protect Europe from a Rising China

Author:: Didi Kirsten Tatlow
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Communist Party of China (CPC) plans for China to achieve effective global dominance by 2049. It is using the major global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to secure strategic advantage through propaganda and disinformation, assertive, sometimes aggressive diplomacy, pursuing targeted investments, and offering “health cooperation.” The CPC has long targeted European business and political elites to build constituencies of support. Europe must counter by building robust societies based on core democratic values.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, COVID-19, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

150. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus

Author:: András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

151. Connectivity in Eurasia: Geopolitical Chances for the EU

Author:: Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: As the coronavirus pandemic fuels technological and geopolitical competition among the great powers, Europe’s relations with China and Russia are facing new challenges and risks. Still, the reconfiguration of power in Eurasia also brings unexpected opportunities for European actors in the area of connectivity. To seize them, the EU needs to reconcile its aspiration to be a globally accepted “normative-regulatory” power with both its limited financial means and its more assertive attitude to geopolitics.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

152. Issue Paper: Reintegration of Returnees from Syria and Iraq

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: InFoEx is a joint project of the Research Center for Migration, Integration and Asylum of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). In the course of 2019 and 2020, InFoEx brings together best practices and scientific findings from tertiary prevention in Germany and abroad. The aim of the project is to gather empirical findings on (de)radicalization processes, with a focus on their practical applicability for deradicalization work. To this end, the BAMF Research Centre initiated a network of research fellows who are embedded at local advice centers and research institutions partnering with the BAMF Advice Centre “Radicalisation.”
Topic:: Migration, Radicalization, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Germany, and Syria

153. The EU’s Role in Addressing Lebanon’s Multiple Crises

Author:: Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Beirut Port blast (BPB) has revealed the fundamental failure of the Lebanese political system, but deep democratic reforms will take time and are fraught with risks. Given the US withdrawal and the extreme tensions in the region, the EU has a critical role to play in addressing the short-term humanitarian crisis, responding to the economic and financial situation, and providing a forum for civil society empowerment. If it fails to do so, the price is further geopolitical destabilization.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Geopolitics, Finance, Economy, Political stability, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon

154. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade

Author:: Martin Sieg
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Oligarchy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

155. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like

Author:: Stefan Meister
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Germany

156. DONBAS PEACE TALKS 2.0: Russia’s Objectives and Ukraine’s Limits

Author:: Cristina Gherasimov and András Rácz
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: On October 1, 2019, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed to meet Russia’s conditions for holding peace talks already this autumn. Moscow’s readiness to play, however, should not be mistaken for willingness to solve the conflict. So far, the Kremlin has not made any concessions in Eastern Ukraine that would be irreversible; consequently, it seems to only be testing Zelenskiy’s limits. Both Zelenskiy and the EU need to be cautious not to reward easy-to-reverse steps with major, strategic benefits.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

157. The First Year of the Compact: How the Review Process Can Make Civilian CSDP More Capable

Author:: Carina Böttcher
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The EU needs more and better capabilities in civilian crisis management to fulfill its level of ambition and to more effectively contribute to security and peace in its wider neighborhood. In this, the Civilian CSDP Compact plays an important role. It has introduced an annual review process to take stock of implementation and identify capability shortfalls. This review process has great potential to improve the way the EU and its member states plan and develop capabilities for missions.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe

158. Global Energy in Transition: How the EU Should Navigate New Realities and Risks

Author:: Andreas Goldthau
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Global energy demand is shifting to Southeast Asia. This new trade flow is altering market power because it not only follows natural economic development, but also results from strategic trade and investment policies that promote national interests. In this context, the EU needs to account for the geo-economic side effects of the new European Green Deal.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, European Union, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

159. Berlin’s Preliminary 5G Decision: Limiting Damage and Learning Lessons

Author:: Kaan Sahin and Didi Kirsten Tatlow
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Despite the security concerns of the US, EU, and Australia, Germany plans not to exclude any telecom equipment vendors, including Chinese companies such as Huawei, from its 5G network. This stance reflects a narrow view of the issue that prioritizes short-term economic interests and fails to uphold national security and democratic values. Widespread criticism, including from within the government, shows that political decision-makers in Germany need a more sophisticated, forward-looking approach to 5G.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Internet
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Germany, Australia, North America, and United States of America

160. The Future of EU’s Eastern Partnership Beyond 2020

Author:: Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The year 2019 has marked the ten-year anniversary of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) and seen the start of the development of a new strategy for the EaP, which is to be announced by mid-2020. A new European Commission took office on December 1, and according to its president, Ursula von der Leyen, “the European Union’s future is shaped and tied in with the future of its neighbors and its partners. A stable, secure and prosperous region around our Union is therefore of paramount importance. The EU should be present and active across our neighborhood, cooperating on common challenges and opportunities and providing support for essential reforms.” In her mission letter to Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi, von der Leyen asked him to “take the Eastern Partnership to the next level” by proposing a new set of long-term policy objectives for the EaP. The changing domestic and geopolitical environment of the last ten years, and its effects on the EaP countries and the EU member states make this a challenging task. Zigzagging sociopolitical and economic developments in the EaP countries, the capacity to act of the EU (and of Germany, a particularly important player in the region), and the rising influence of third powers in the region are among the main factors that have profoundly changed the nature of the relationship between the EU and its neighborhood. The changing context therefore needs to be considered in the design of the next set of policy objectives and instruments. The EU and its member states, however, lack a clear strategy and a political vision for how to further engage with the eastern neighborhood. This report analyzes these factors that the EU should consider when engaging with the EaP countries in times of crisis and external pressure beyond 2020.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

161. Security First, Technology Second: Putin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help

Author:: Andrei Soldatov
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Internet, Surveillance, and Censorship
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

162. Point of No Return: Viktor Orbán’s Divorce from the EPP

Author:: Milan Nič and András Rácz
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: A few weeks after the European People’s Party (EPP) suspended the membership of Hungary’s ruling populist party, Fidesz, it looks unlikely that their relationship could be repaired. Seeing his leverage decreasing, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been paving the way for divorce. The EPP leaders seem to have made up their minds as well. A re-arrangement of the European party system is already taking shape ahead of the upcoming European elections (23–26 May 2019), not only afterwards.
Topic:: Government, Regional Cooperation, Elections, European Union, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

163. A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats: Germany, the EU, and NATO Need New Political Initiatives and Military Defense Systems

Author:: Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling, and Zoe Stanley-Lockman
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The range of air-based threats is expanding with considerable speed and intensity. The main reason is the proliferation of technologies and weapons systems. Germany could play a leading role in the necessary adaptation of arms control regimes and in the development of new air defense capabilities. To this end, Germany should initiate a PESCO project on short-range air defense and an air defense capability cluster within NATO.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

164. The Compact Roadmap: Towards a New Level of Professionalization in Civilian CSDP

Author:: Carina Böttcher
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: EU member states agreed the Civilian CSDP Compact in late 2018 to breathe new life into EU civilian crisis management. Its 22 commitments are a response to a double challenge: a rapidly changing security environment and persistent shortfalls in the planning, deployment, and conduct of missions. Implementation will be challenging. Political momentum depends on producing tangible results early on, notably through National Implementation Plans and a workable Civilian Capability Review process.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, and Professionalism
Political Geography:: Europe

165. German Leadership in Arms Control: Three Pillars to Achieve More Realism

Author:: Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Arms control is traditionally at the core of Germany’s cooperative security approach. It is therefore a natural leader for a new Western arms control policy. But Germany must overcome the Cold War approach that no longer suits today’s security environment. A new approach should build on three pillars: security, military, and alliance realism. While such a change entails risk and uncertainty for German decision-makers, the price of upholding existing outdated arms control architectures is already higher.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

166. Asymmetrical Arms Control: How to Account for Innovation and Diversity in European Armed Forces

Author:: Torben Schutz
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Conventional arms control in Europe is in crisis. As it is based on a simple headcount of weapons systems, it does not reflect the qualitative changes to armed forces’ structures and assets brought about by technological innovation. It is high time to embrace asymmetrical arms control mechanisms which are a promising method to deal with the diversity of qualitative changes in European armed forces. Germany should push for such innovation within the OSCE.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

167. Technology and Strategy: The Changing Security Environment in Space Demands New Diplomatic and Military Answers

Author:: Torben Schütz
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: On the brink of being weaponized, space is becoming a military-operational environment. Proliferating anti-satellite weapons threaten space security and enable first strikes against military space assets crucial to conventional and nuclear forces. This affects the global strategic landscape and decreases crisis stability among major powers. As current arms control regimes are insufficient, Germany and NATO should push new initiatives to keep space peaceful and advance military planning should they fail.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Space
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

168. Shaking Up the 2019 European Election

Author:: Julia Hamann
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: More fragmented than ever, Europe is at a crossroads, making the 2019 European Parliament election an immensely political event. Stakes are high for Emmanuel Macron, Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orbán, all of whom could shake up the balance of power in the EP. Macron has lost much of his initial vigor, and the disruptive potential of Salvini and Orbán is significant. If played well, their combined power could send shock waves across all European institutions
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe

169. Straddling between Optimism and Mistrust

Author:: Julia Hamann and Sara Jakob
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: For many young people in France, President Macron’s reforms failed to alleviate their social anxieties. Unemployment remains high, employment conditions precarious, and what started as a protest against new fuel taxes quickly spilled over to other reform areas including social policy. Macron will need to gain the youngsters’ trust ahead of the European Parliament election – not least because its outcome will decisively shape his domestic credibility, and consequently, his political fate
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

170. China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe

Author:: Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Could China’s quiet but steadily rising penetration of Central Europe bear risks for the EU? Certainly, Beijing is using the region as a gateway to Western Europe’s markets while including the EU in its “Eurasian” integration project. But a deepening trade triangle of China, Germany, and Central European countries could put other EU countries at an economic disadvantage. Germany must address this risk, carefully balancing national interest and European cohesion.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

171. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy

Author:: Sergei Markedonov
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty to the South Caucasus. Russia’s policies are crucial here, just as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the South Caucasus highlights Russia's security concerns. The post-Soviet neighborhood's different conflict zones require a differentiated approach.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

172. A New Strategy for European Health Policy

Author:: Anna-Lena Kirch and Daniel Braun
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany considers itself a leading European power that utilizes its influence to promote EU cohesion in the face of Brexit and numerous other crises. However, a different picture emerges in European health policy, an area that is not only being discussed as an essential part of the EU’s social dimension but also in the context of its security and development positioning: Far from shaping the discussion, Germany is at times even perceived as the brakeman to an effective European health policy.
Topic:: Health and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

173. Beyond ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ Putin

Author:: Barbara Kunz
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: France and Germany are key in shaping European policies toward Russia. However, while the general public is largely skeptical of Vladimir Putin in both countries, the picture is more diverse in the political realm. Whereas Germany remains focused on multilateralism and a rules-based international order, French political parties have been split on Russia. The differences between and within France and Germany impact on Franco-German relations and go beyond the question on how to deal with Russia.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

174. China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe

Author:: Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: China’s increased engagement in Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe has aroused concerns in Europe that China is pursuing a divisive strategy. Its primary goal, however, is to use the region as a gateway to Western Europe’s markets while including the EU in its own Eurasian integration project; in Beijing’s view, a robust regulatory EU is doubtless preferable to a fragmented Europe. China’s deepening involvement in the region could nevertheless increase economic divisions within the EU as whole. As a trade triangle emerges involving China, Germany, and the Visegrad states, the “German-Central European manufacturing core” potentially stands to gain at the expense of the EU’s Atlantic and southern European member states. Germany must address this risk with a triple strategy that balances national interest, EU cohesion, and engagement with China. This involves, first, working with the Visegrad Four, with other European countries, and with EU institutions to forge a deeper and more effective cooperation with China to enhance transport connectivity and economic modernization, particularly in the Western and Eastern Balkans. Second, Germany should increase pressure on China to open up the Chinese domestic market to ensure mutual access. And third, it should promote forward-looking European industrial policy centered on the digitalization of value and supply chains for Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe. This would allow Germany to prevent intra-European divisions from deepening, while taking advantage of its triangular relations with China and the countries of Central Europe and fostering mutually advantageous integration across Eurasia.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

175. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy Security Concerns amid Ethno-political Conflicts

Author:: Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The South Caucasus continues to be critically important to Eurasian security. The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty and confrontation to the region. Russia’s policies here are crucial, as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sergey Markedonov offers an insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the region, highlighting its security concerns and stressing that Russia is not taking a universal approach to all of the post-Soviet conflict zones. While the “Western” political and expert community often assumes that territorial revisionism is a kind of idée fixe within Russia, this is far from the case. Each situation demands an indi- vidual response from Moscow, as it weighs and pursues its own interests. This in turn explains the improbability of “Crimean situations” multiplying in the South Caucasus. The region undoubtedly harbors risks of confrontation – not only between Russia and the countries of the immediate region but also with such large powers as the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran – but it also holds several opportunities for cooperation.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

176. Three Challenges for a Macron Presidency And Two Recommendations for Germany

Author:: Daniela Schwarzer
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: A Macron presidency could be the last chance for liberal-minded politicians to reform France and the EU. Failure to do so may pave the way in ve years’ time for a far-right or far-left president who would then begin undoing the EU
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: France

177. Between Geopolitics and Transformation: Challenges and Perspectives for the Eastern Partnership

Author:: Hans Martin Sieg
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) faces a double challenge. The transformation of post-Soviet countries it was designed to support has largely failed to emerge. In its place, a conflict with Russia has arisen for which the EaP was unprepared. This spells a dilemma. Rather than support EaP governments on the basis of their reform records, the EU is tempted to back them for the geopoli- tical choices they have made (namely, for their professed pro-European positions). In the long run, however, the EaP cannot succeed without delivering on its “trans- formational agenda.” Even in countries that have already signed Association Ag- reements with the EU, the ultimate success of the EaP is in question. This analysis describes the EaP’s “transformational challenge.” It argues that geopolitical com- petition with Russia was neither avoidable nor will it be easy to overcome. The key obstacle to change, however, is not geopolitical competition but the veto power of vested interests within EaP countries themselves. Since this veto power marks a crucial difference from conditions that prevailed in EU enlargements in Central Europe, the EaP’s response must apply a different transformational logic. The EU must go beyond merely supporting reforms in the EaP and effectively take co- responsibility for them. This involves upgrading the principle of conditionality and getting involved more directly in implementation. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of human resources in state institutions and proposes concrete measures for appointing and retaining qualified personnel and, particularly, inde- pendent leaders for key law enforcement and regulatory bodies.
Topic:: Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

178. Youth Unemployment and Job Insecurity in Spain Problems and Policy Options

Author:: Maria Ramos and Carlos Victoria
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Youth unemployment rates in Spain are considerably higher than the European average. Moreover, those young people who do have jobs generally work under extremely unstable conditions on temporary contracts. Most of these temporary contracts are “involuntary” – workers would prefer to nd permanent jobs but are unable to do so. The consequences of this job insecurity in Spain are dramatic. Across the educational spectrum, young workers are at greater risk of remaining unemployed, getting stuck in temporary contracts for long periods of time, experiencing wage penalties, or being over-quali ed for their jobs. The crisis has increased the overall risk of long-term poverty and social exclusion, particularly for youth with migrant backgrounds and those who are not in education, employ- ment, or training. The paper concludes by outlining the three most urgent objec- tives for the Spanish labor market today: bridging the gap between education and work; developing active labor market policies; and reducing labor market segmen- tation between workers with temporary and permanent contracts and between “insiders” and “outsiders.”
Topic:: Youth Culture and Employment
Political Geography:: Spain

179. Reforms, New Elites, and Old Structures How to Win the Battle for a New Ukraine?

Author:: Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In the two years since its “Revolution of Dignity” – also known as Euromaidan – Ukraine has launched important reform initiatives. Most of them are still in the inception phase, however, and much remains to be done to ensure their sustainability. The past two years have made clear the enormity of the challenge Ukraine faces in its transformation. At the same time, it has also shown unprece- dentedly strong determination on the part of new reform-minded actors to overhaul the old system. Ukraine today can best understood as a battlefield: the old system and its structures are fighting for their survival, as new actors – from both within the system and outside it – push for a new social contract. This struggle is taking place on an everyday basis at different levels, national and local, in a number of different reform areas. External actors can best contribute by giving stronger sup- port to reformers while promoting development of institutions that limit the space for vested interests to persist. Special attention should be paid to enforcing and implementing already adopted decisions and new laws that change the rules of the game.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Ukraine

180. A New Helsinki Needed? What Security Model for Europe?

Author:: Stefan Meister
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogue Workshop held at the DGAP in December 2015 focused on security. It brought together a group of Russian, Pol- ish, and German experts to discuss their respective national security discourses and the security situation in Europe more generally. The three short papers includ- ed here provide brief analyses of how the security situation is currently perceived in each of the three countries. From the German side, the answer was the refugee crisis. Polish experts pointed to the threat posed by Russia, while the Russian speakers described their worries about color revolutions and regime change in the post-Soviet sphere. Certainly, perceptions of security threats differ greatly among EU member states, to say nothing of the difference between Russia and the EU as a whole. Only real understanding of our counterparts can help in forging a new modus vivendi and overcoming the dangerous situation in which Europe currently nds itself. The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogues aim to forge better understand- ing of “the other side” through presentations and opportunities for discussion, offering crucial rst steps toward overcoming misperceptions and stereotypes. The Trialogue meets regularly under the aegis of the DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations), IMEMO (Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Russian Academy of Sciences), and PISM (Polish Institute of International Affairs) and in cooperation with and nancial support from SDPZ (Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Warsaw office
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Europe

181. The Engagement of Arab Gulf States in Egypt and Tunisia since 2011

Author:: Sebastian Sons and Inken Wiese
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This study documents the various forms and measures of political and economic assistance provided by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar to Egypt and Tunisia since the upheavals of 2011. It also analyzes the impact Gulf donor countries had on political and economic development within Egypt and Tunisia, particularly with regard to democratization and inclusive socio economic change. Economically, efforts undertaken by the Gulf states were inten ded to stabilize the two countries, for example by helping them overcome budget de cits. While their business investments are not trickling down to the economi cally marginalized segments of society, some of the Gulffunded development projects have been geared toward fueling more inclusive growth. Due to limited coordination between Arab and Western donor countries, however, there has thus far been little alignment of projects taking place in the same sectors. As a result, the potential for synergies between these projects has remained untapped. In po litical terms, as was expected, the Gulf states did not engage in efforts to promote more democratization. Indeed, in Egypt the assistance provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE even contributed to a return to the pre2011 order. For Germany and its partners to engage the Gulf states more intensively on governance matters and to create incentives, deeper knowledge is required about how political decisions are made in the Gulf. This is also essential for developing Germany’s muchneeded general strategy toward the Gulf states, which is currently lacking. The Deauville Partnership is a useful forum for improving and increasing future coordination.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Gulf Nations

182. The Value of Alternatives: Why the EU is Indispensable to Central Asian Security

Author:: Luba von Hauff
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The security risks of post-Soviet Central Asia are pronounced and therefore pres- ent on the agendas of most international actors, including the US, Russia, and China. The EU is also concerned, although it has hitherto not been known for political success in the region, especially in terms of security. Indeed, the EU’s approach to the region – oriented toward transformation, liberalization, and de- mocratization – has been largely labeled a failure, with minimal impact and prog- ress. Against this background, this article will review and discuss the nature of the threats to Central Asia’s security, establish the extent of the EU’s actual “failure” by examining the distinct characteristics of the EU’s security approach, and, finally, reflect on how European policy can have an impact on the local security situation in the future.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

183. “Transforming to Where? The Cases of Egypt and Tunisia”

Author:: Maria Haimerl
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Egypt and Tunisia have been witnessing radical transformations ever since presidents Hosni Mubarak and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali were toppled. The countries have seen, among other changes, a remarkable awakening of public interest in politics and in shaping their own societies, an unprecedented flourishing of their political landscapes, and relatively free and fair, and hence historic, elections. However, as is to be expected, uncertainties prevail, and both countries are struggling hard with the complex steps of their respective transitional processes. They are encountering formidable challenges (although the degrees and dimensions of these challenges vary), such as the emergence of new powerful political actors with an Islamic reference system and an unpredictable and unclear agenda as regards their commitment to democratization; a society split along a secular-Islamist divide; and, correspondingly, a lack of consensus on the draft of a new constitution. A deteriorating and hence alarming socio-economic situation, an unwillingness to deal with atrocities committed in the past, a highly politicized judiciary, and a complex and opaque constellation of actors further complicate the situation.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Egypt and Tunisia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS