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2. Climate and Environmental Security in the Democratic Republic of Congo
- Author:
- Kira Vinke, Loyle Campbell, Dana Schirwon, Katongo Seyuba, Florian Krampe, Hafsa Maalim, and Guélor Isulu Mbungwal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Climate change is compounding the Democratic Republic of Congo’s tangle of problems – a long-running civil war, weak governance, and deeply entrenched poverty and inequality. The country’s future is of global significance: its vast Congo-basin rainforest is a crucial carbon sink and a haven of biodiversity. DRC’s hydropower potential and its deposits of copper and cobalt could enable the energy transition, but a green resource looms over development prospects. Germany will need flexible and well-aligned national strategies to effectively support peace, human progress, and environmental protection in the DRC while putting the focus on the needs of marginalized populations.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Poverty, Inequality, and Hydropower
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
3. After Ostpolitik: A New Russia and Eastern Europe Policy Based on Lessons from the Past
- Author:
- Stefan Meister and Wilfried Jilge
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The large-scale Russian war of aggression against Ukraine that began in February 2022 demonstrates both the failure of Germany’s cooperative Ostpolitik of the last 30 years and the need for energy policy disentanglement. Russia has become the greatest security risk in Europe. To safeguard national and European security, Germany’s ruling coalition must learn lessons from the past, initiate a radical new beginning in Germany’s policy on Russia and Eastern Europe, and assume a leadership role in Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Governance, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, and Ukraine
4. From “Forward Presence” to “Forward Defense”: Germany Must Strengthen NATO’s Northeastern Flank in Lithuania
- Author:
- Aylin Matlé
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Issues of deterrence and defense along NATO’s northeastern flank have been a greater focus of NATO members since the Russian attack on Ukraine began. Particularly in the Baltic States, there is a determination to protect every inch of the Alliance’s territory against a possible Russian attack. To prevent such a scenario, NATO is making military adjustments to which Germany will have to increase its contribution.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Lithuania, and Germany
5. China “De-risking”: A Long Way from Political Statements to Corporate Action
- Author:
- Ole Spillner and Guntram Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Major Western leaders have been calling for “de-risking” from China, rather than “decoupling.” But what exactly de-risking means and how it differs from decoupling, remains unclear. It is ultimately firms, not governments, driving trade and investment relations. But firms cannot account for unidentified risks by themselves. National security risks are for governments to define. Complex supply chain externalities might entail risks to production that are also difficult for firms to account for. Furthermore, firms may bet that governments will rescue them if a worst-case scenario happens, effectively socializing risks. In the EU, Germany is particularly exposed to China risk in terms of security, macroeconomic, and political exposure.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Macroeconomics, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
6. German Defense Spending: A Repeat of the Past Instead of a New Era
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, and Sören Hellmonds
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The historic aspiration of Germany’s Zeitenwende – the new era in its foreign and security policy – will fail without the proposed funding. The growing tension between its demands for the Bundeswehr and missing resources is already driving Germany back to the old and shortsighted approach of cutting and stretching budgets and fragile procurement plans. The country needs a security decade: a ten-year systematic spending effort that closes its substantial security gap. Without sustainable funding for military security and other existential government tasks, Germany will continue to pose a risk to itself and others.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Budget, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
7. Whose Zeitenwende? Germany Cannot Meet Everyone’s Expectations
- Author:
- Kristi Raik and Martin Quencez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s full-scale of invasion of Ukraine pushed Germany to fundamentally revise its foreign and security policy, including its assumptions about European security, its relations with major powers, and its role as a mediator of intra-European disputes. The Zeitenwende’s level of ambition entails a profound reckoning of the failure of past policies, and has to be both European and global. Germany bears a special responsibility for strengthening European defense vis à vis Russia, reducing Europe’s vulnerabilities vis à vis China, maintaining a strong transatlantic alliance while also preparing Europe for a possible reduced US commitment in the future, and ensuring a coherent EU.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Germany
8. European Defense in A New Age (#EDINA)
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Sören Hellmonds, and Theresa Caroline Winter
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Delve into the transformation of Europe's defense landscape following Russia's Ukraine invasion in 2022 with our comprehensive report. Part of the long-term project on European Defense In a New Age (EDINA), this report provides expert insights on shifts in Europe's military order, defense cooperation, and geopolitical landscape, with a focus on Europe's evolving Defense Technological and Industrial Base (DTIB). Explore key findings on political change, potential divisions, and China's role and discover the seismic shifts reshaping European defense.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Until NATO Membership, Extending the Joint Expeditionary Force Is the Best Option
- Author:
- Benjamin Tallis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- There are no security “guarantees,” but NATO membership is as close as it gets – and has long proven its effectiveness in deterring Russian aggression. It is thus the only real option for Ukraine – and for wider European security. Addressing the lack of political will to recognize this, especially in Washington and Berlin, means finding an interim solution that provides credible, collective security in the meantime and fosters more durable, fairly delivered European security in the long term.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
10. Protecting the EU’s Submarine Cable Infrastructure: Germany’s Opportunity to Transform Vulnerability into Mutual Resilience
- Author:
- Jannik Hartmann
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Submarine cables handle over 95 percent of the world’s internet traffic, making them essential for everything from finance to foreign affairs. The September 2022 attack on the Nord Stream pipelines and increased Russian naval activity brought greater awareness of how European – and German – interconnectedness also brings vulnerability. The urgency of tackling this threat offers Germany an opportunity to take a structural and joined-up approach that shows it can act as a “team power.”
- Topic:
- Security, Infrastructure, European Union, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
11. Conflict in Two Theaters? European Misperceptions about the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Elisabeth Suh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine is being heralded as a moment of strategic clarity for Europe about the return of revisionist power politics. While the immediate neighborhood remains the main concern, European strategists are worried about a second source of risk: violent revisionism in the Asia-Pacific. The United States has already shifted its center of strategic gravity to the Pacific, but conflicts brewing there also require a European response.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Political stability, Conflict, Violence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific
12. NATO’s 2030 Reflection Process and the New Strategic Concept: Implications for the Security in Northern Europe
- Author:
- Robin Allers, Rachel Lutz Ellehuus, Claudia Major, Christian Mölling, Paul O'Neill, and Johannes Gullestad Rø
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The NATO 2030 reflection process was sparked by worries that the Alliance might falter as a forum for political consultation. Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States all have a shared interest in ensuring NATO's coherence, improving the credibility of its deterrent, and strengthening its capacity to act. This report from the Security in Northern Europe (SNE) project presents contemporary views on NATO's Strategic Concept 2030 from Berlin, London, Oslo, and Washington D.C.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
13. Japan's "Economic Security" Measures
- Author:
- Didi Kirsten Tatlow and Afra Herr
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Japan and Germany face an acute dilemma. China, a key trading partner for both nations, uses political warfare and economic statecraft to advance its interests. Like Germany, Japan has a strong SME economy and auto industry, and has dependencies on China. Yet Japan faces more risk due to its geographical proximity to China and territorial disputes. As global tensions grow, Japan is responding robustly by building economic security. Germany, together with the EU and other like-minded partners, should do the same.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Politics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Germany
14. If Russia Uses Migration as a Weapon, Europeans Should Respond In Kind
- Author:
- Alia Fakhry, Roderick Parkes, and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, we show how the EU can meet this specific threat.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Ukraine
15. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe
16. Sanctions Against Russia: Five Lessons from the Case of Iran
- Author:
- Stefan Meister and David Ramin Jalilvand
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to the most comprehensive economic sanctions imposed on a country of this size since the end of the Second World War. Yet sanctions are only an effective tool of foreign and security policy if they are embedded in a sustainable political strategy that considers the cost-benefit analysis for both sides. Looking at the sanctions against Iran can be helpful when it comes to learning lessons about how to deal with Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Ukraine
17. Defining Feminist Foreign Policy in Germany’s National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Serafine Dinkel, Dana Schirwon, and Leonie Stamm
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Writing a National Security Strategy (NSS) in an acute crisis requires concision and priority-setting. Pairing the NSS with feminist foreign policy (FFP) – two novelties for Germany, which is formulating an overarching strategy for the first time – might seem risky for the government in Berlin. How can FFP serve as an enduring compass for the NSS in diverse policy areas? And how can the NSS process help flesh out FFP and prove its efficacy in addressing major security issues?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
18. US-Chinese Competition and Transatlantic Relations: Implications for Germany and Europe
- Author:
- Markus Jaeger
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany is at risk of sustaining collateral damage in the face of intensifying US-Chinese competition and conflict. China’s ascendance and America’s desire to preserve the status quo lock Beijing and Washington into a classic security dilemma. The United States sees China as a potential regional hegemon in Asia and as an emerging global systemic challenger. China sees the United States as impeding its rise. Security competition is already well underway. So are geo-economic and geo-technological competition and conflict. For Germany, a position of relative neutrality or equidistance is not an option, it should consider pursuing a multi-track approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Transatlantic Relations, Strategic Competition, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, and United States of America
19. Germany’s Economic Security and Technology: Optimizing Export Control, Investment Screening and Market Access Instruments
- Author:
- Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Technological development and increasingly fraught US-China competition have geopolitical consequences for technology access. The erosion of post-Cold War multilateral dual-use technology export control regimes, such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, and investment and other control frameworks have led to na-tional, EU, and ad hoc measures, such as the restrictions on Russian semiconductor access following the invasion of Ukraine. The German government must integrate technology access and control instruments – export controls, FDI screening, critical infrastructure access, research protection, and outbound investment– in its Digital Strategy and National Security Strategy. The former currently neglects critical technology access and control; the latter must address it comprehensively. German – and EU – dual-use export and FDI screening reforms have been updated and are now in place. Capacity building and alignment with EU and NATO partners now deserves greater attention. Measures could include more robust, institutionalized information-sharing and consultations on dual-use technology export, import, investment, and research controls in a Multilateral Technology Control Committee born out of the G7 or TTC. The commit-tee should also establish the capacity to deny end-user access to German technology through its own Foreign-Direct Product Rules and Entity List.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Science and Technology, Investment, and Exports
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
20. Gas and Energy Security in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Guntram Wolff and Alexandra Gritz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies caused a shock to the energy security of Central and Eastern Europe. Countries responded by increasing alternative gas supplies and LNG import capacity. Gas flows shifted from the east-west axis to west-east and north-south axes. In the short term, the usage of coal is rising; in the longer term, renewable and nuclear energy. Mitigating the effects of this shock requires the EU to prioritize policies that foster the integrity and security of its energy market.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Central Europe
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