1. Salome’s Choice: Europe and Ivanishvili?
- Author:
- Emma Smeyers
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- While Georgian Dream (GD) has been attempting to normatively balance between the collective West and Russia for years, the latter’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought increased pressure on the ruling party— ultimately resulting in internal shifts among the elite, and bringing about party-wide discursive change. In the most high-profile case, President Salome Zurabishvili—for the first time since she took office in 2018—was seen openly defying the leadership, and directly contradicting the party line. She has since publicly engaged in several quarrels with the party’s leadership, with one causing the announcement of a lawsuit against her for alleged violations of the Constitution. Despite these disputes, Zurabishvili remains willing to side with Bidzina Ivanishvili, GD founder and former Prime Minister. She openly blamed GD leadership for taking insufficient measures to preemptively shield the oligarch from the possibility of personal sanctions. Zurabishvili’s sudden ‘turn’ against Georgian Dream, though creating some intrigue, remains unsystematically explored. This paper engages in a scenario-outlining exercise, wherein three potential explanations are presented. First, Zurabishvili’s ‘turn’ might have stemmed from valuebased disagreement, with the war in Ukraine revealing the incompatibility of the President’s and GD elites’ values. Second, her ‘turn’ could have been part of a communication strategy, orchestrated to create the illusion of a ‘fragmented leadership’ for public legitimation purposes. Finally, the possibility of patterns of intra-regime (dis)loyalty, alliance-forming, and elite defection being at play is explored. Such patterns are expected to supervene in informal, authoritarian modes of governance and are likely to supervene during heightened crises1 .
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, and Georgia