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2. Preliminary Talks: Can the talks in Zanzibar lead to an agreement between Ethiopia and the Oromo Liberation Army?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Zanzibar, and Ethiopia
3. European Mercenaries: Will Congo use Wagner in its conflict with Rwanda?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Tensions broke out between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in January 2023 after an exchange of accusations of non-compliance with their peace agreement signed in the Angolan capital Luanda in November 2022. The development came after Kinshasa announced that it uses private military firms to counter growing security threats. Kigali regarded this move as a declaration of war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Conflict, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Rwanda
4. The Taiwan Factor: Why Is China seeking a larger military might?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is also the head of Central Military Commission, told the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held from October 16 to October 22, to speed up efforts to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to transform it into a world-class military. He also underscored the need for winning regional wars.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Conflict, Borders, Strategic Interests, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
5. Limited Outcome: UNSC Resolution 2656 fails to solve the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Security Council Resolution, on October 28, 2022, unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) for twelve months. It urged all Libyan parties and key stakeholders to agree on a new road map to deliver presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible and form a Libyan unified government able to govern across the country.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Crisis Management, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
6. Deepening the Divide: How do regional and international actors impact war-torn Libya
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Months of political and military stalemate speak volumes of the effects of regional and international intervention in Libya. And with multitude of players seek to break the deadlock, Libya may brace itself for a new political episode that might transpire in the coming period.
- Topic:
- Politics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
7. The New Rules of the Game: Unfolding the targeting of an Israeli oil tanker in the Arabian Sea
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On Friday, July 30, Iran targeted the Mercer Street oil tanker in the Northern Arabian Sea off the Omani port of Duqm, which was on its way from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Fujairah in the UAE, killing two crew members: a British and a Romanian. The Israeli ship was attacked by one or more drones. The attack came in two waves. The first wave was the bombing of the tanker with missiles carried by a normal drone. As the damage was limited, a larger suicide attack was launched on the dormitories of the ship's crew, with the aim of causing casualties, which actually resulted in the deaths of a British and a Romanian. The oil tanker belongs to the London-based Zodiac Maritime company, which is part of the Zodiac company owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer. This is the second attack within the month of July, as the first one took place on July 3, targeting Csav Tyndall, which is also owned by Eyal Ofer.
- Topic:
- Oil, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf
8. Remarkable Shift Implications of the Meeting of US Envoy to Libya with General Haftar in Cairo
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The US Embassy in Libya recently announced that US Special Envoy and Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland met General Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army in Cairo between August 11-12 2021, as part of US efforts to support the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December. The announcement followed statements in which Noland noted Haftar’s role in unifying the Libyan army. Norland also called on regional and international parties to help in the removal of foreign forces from Libya, much to the anger of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, who sensed a change in Washington’s attitude towards their organization. This was made even more evident when Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi, spoke to the New York Times in an interview published on July 30. In the interview, Qaddafi asserted that he would run for president in the coming elections. The development indicates Washington’s current attitude towards parties to the conflict in Libya and its potential approval of Gaddafi’s presidential candidacy.
- Topic:
- Oil, Islamic State, Conflict, Muslim Brotherhood, and Khalifa Haftar
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America
9. Mounting Turmoil: Is Lebanon witnessing a deterioration of the influence of Hezbollah and Iran?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Lebanese internal arena is experiencing escalating instability. This is clearly reflected in the influence of political forces, especially Hezbollah, which is under internal and external pressures as a result of the faltering formation of the government. The balance of power is drawing more to be in favor of the Bashar al-Assad regime over the past few years. In addition to its continued involvement in the Syrian conflict, Hezbollah identifies with the Iranian public discourse on many regional and international issues, particularly during the escalation of tensions with the US and Israel.
- Topic:
- Politics, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Lebanon, and Syria
10. The Aftermath of Demonstrations: The reasons behind the conflict about Tunisian cabinet reshuffle
- Author:
- Karam Saeed
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On January 27, 2021, the political climate in Tunisia was charged up, following the parliament’s approval on a cabinet reshuffle on January 26, supported by 144 parliamentarians. This included new ministers joining the government of ‘Hichem Mechichi’, which had been formed on August 24, 2020. The proposed amendments intensified the political crisis in the country, against the backdrop of President Kais Saied’s announcement of his rejection of the cabinet reshuffle under the claims of the potential corruption of some ministers. Yet, Mechici resorted to the parliamentary majority led by Al-Nahda movement to gain the confidence of the parliament. Despite the lapse of a week since the new reshuffle won the confidence of the Parliament, the President rejected summoning the new ministers to take the constitutional oath, which paves the way for more complications in the Tunisian scene. Furthermore, the Parliament's approval of the amendments may fuel a constitutional struggle between the Prime Minister and the President.
- Topic:
- Government, Conflict, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
11. Under Observation: The Libyan conflict and the election of a new government
- Author:
- Ahmed Abdel-Alim Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The internationally-supported political dialogue forum in Geneva succeeded in selecting a new government, including Abdul Hamid Mohammed al-Dabaib as Prime Minister, and Muhammad Al-Manfi as President of the Presidential Council as well as two other members of the Council. These results were well received internally, regionally and internationally, which raises a key question relevant to the ability of the new government, though temporary, to effect positive accomplishments leading to the general elections in December 2021.
- Topic:
- Politics, Conflict, Transition, Khalifa Haftar, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
12. Intertwined challenges: How will the ‘Berlin 2’ conference affect the Libyan crisis?
- Author:
- Mahmoud Qassem
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- About a year and a half following the first Berlin conference on the Libyan crisis held in January 2020, the ‘Berlin 2’ conference was held on June 23, 2021 raising a number of questions. Some of the questions pertain to the future of this crisis and the outcome of such interactions, in light of the significant momentum accompanying the current internal and external developments. The post ‘Berlin 2"’conference interactions were shaped according to two tracks, one of which is optimistic about the possibility of building on the outcomes of the conference and adopting a settlement path in Libya, while the other is loaded with anticipation and uncertainty, particularly with the ongoing challenges and issues that may undermine any future developments.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Negotiation, Crisis Management, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, and Germany
13. Ethiopian Perspective: Elections in Strained Dynamics
- Author:
- Anwar Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The election, which was held in Ethiopia on Monday, June 21, 2021, was the most complicated election that the country has witnessed in more than three decades, or, more accurately, since the 1994 constitution was approved. The reason is that this election was held amid lots of internal challenges, not to mention the strong criticism of its legitimacy (both domestically and internationally) even before it was held. Ethiopians are warily looking forward to the results, which are supposed to be announced within a few days, despite that it is not unlikely that these results will escalate the tensions in an already unrest-ridden country.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Conflict, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
14. The Perfect Conflict The Russian strategy in Yemen
- Author:
- Leonid Issaev
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria was perceived by the world community as a demonstration of strength, unveiling Moscow and the Kremlin's readiness to defend its interests in the Middle East by military means. It is not surprising that the Russian military presence in Syria has generated a lot of speculation about the possibility of a repetition of the Syrian ‘scenario’ in other hot spots in the region, such as Yemen. We believe that such generalizations are inaccurate and simplify the multifaceted situation. First of all, the Syrian case is rather an exception for Moscow. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the communist ideology, Russia became more pragmatic, its policy got rid of the prefix ‘pro’, and, in principle, it is trying to serve its own interests. It is not surprising that the rejection of messianic ideas forced Russia to reconsider its attitude to conflicts, including ones in the Middle East. The best example of Russian pragmatism is the Kremlin's policy on the Yemeni crisis since its beginning in 2011 until now.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Air Force
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
15. Unfulfilled Hopes: Strategic Implications of Re-opening Libya’s Coastal Highway
- Author:
- Mustafa Gamal Omar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- While many Libyans look forward to implement the outcome of the Berlin II Conference on Libya and achieve stability across their country, others believe that the first steps towards such stability should be through breaking the deadlock on unresolved issues. Such issues require urgent but decisive action, and the most prominent of which is the reopening of the coastal road between Sirte and Misrata. The announcement on June 20, 2021, by head of the National Unity Government, Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah, that the main coastal highway will be re-opened, following months of talks on a ceasefire, has revived Libyan hopes. The move is projected to yield significant political, security and economic benefits for the country. However, according to media reports circulated in late June, the 5+5 committee, formally named the 5+5 Libyan Joint Military Commission, decided to put off the re-opening of the vital highway, claiming that only damages will be repaired, which made the situation murky once again. The 5+5 committee, on July 2, dispelled the confusion by announcing that the highway linking Sirte to Misrata will be re-opened over the next week upon the completion of maintenance work. Member of the committee, Major General Faraj Al-Sousaa, confirmed that arrangements were underway for the re-opening.
- Topic:
- Government, Armed Forces, Conflict, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
16. "Melian Strategy": Why does Taliban fight and negotiate at the same time?
- Author:
- Irfan Yar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- As the US completes its troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, Taliban has seized security vacuum to launch massive assaults. The group has unleashed violent chaos across the country and captured more than two-third of the territory, as per senior EU official estimates. On one hand, the insurgents have tightened their grip on seizing the provinces through military means. On the other hand, the insurgents claim that they want to resolve the issue in peaceful ways. “We are committed to finding a diplomatic solution for Afghanistan; the US-Taliban Doha agreement and the Intra-Afghan dialogue are the proofs that the Taliban want to solve the issue through negotiations,”[ii] said Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy leader of the Taliban, on Wednesday, in Doha. Furthermore, Taliban leaders urge governors, military leaders, and other Jamiat Islami party leaders to surrender and put an end to the 40-years long conflict via negotiations. So, the question is, why have the Taliban fighters intensified violence and, at the same time, stress on making peace?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Taliban, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Kabul
17. Panjshir Resistance: Will the Taliban Fail to Fully Control Afghanistan?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Taliban easily succeeded in controlling all Afghan provinces except for one, namely, Panjshir, currently known as the Panjshir Valley, in north-central Afghanistan. Leaders of the resistance in Panjshir, (especially Ahmad Massoud, son of the warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud, and Amrullah Saleh, former vice president), stress that they will never surrender to the Taliban.
- Topic:
- Security, Armed Forces, Taliban, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Panjshir
18. The Tigray Crisis: The Ethiopian government’s incessant attempts to resolve the internal conflict militarily
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Ethiopia continues despite international appeals to put an end to it. The government forces were able to slow down the progress of the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front over the last two weeks, and to control some areas. However, the main areas of Afar and Amhara remained under the control of the Tigrayan rebels, who managed to form a broader alliance with other rebel groups.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
19. The Evolving Rivalry: The future of the relationship between Taliban and ISKP in Afghanistan
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The ISIS Amaq news agency on September 19 announced on its Telegram channel that the Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISKP claim responsibility for three bombings in Jalalabad in Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province. The Taliban accused the organization of carrying out a fourth attack in the Afghan capital Kabul. The developments come amid concerns in the West that the next terrorist threat from Afghanistan is this particular militant group.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Taliban, Islamic State, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
20. Successive Setbacks: Can the United Front seize control of Addis Ababa?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- From October 31 to November 3, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) managed to achieve strategic gains at the expense of the Ethiopian government, as it continues to draw closer to the Ethiopian capital, especially after its seizing control of the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha. Meanwhile, contrary to regional and international appeals, the Ethiopian Prime Minister continues to mobilize citizens to fight, refusing a ceasefire and any negotiations with the Tigray Front.
- Topic:
- Government, Non State Actors, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray