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1. Russia's Forays into Sub-Saharan Africa: Do you want to be my friend, again?

Author:
Giovanni Faleg and Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
In 1977, the Soviet Union’s leadership was in a jubilant mood as Ethiopia had just switched sides to the socialist camp. By the time of this event, the Kremlin had been conducting a renewed offensive on the continent for several years, propping up socialist regimes and ‘liberation movements’ in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe) and South Africa. Yet contrary to warnings that the Soviets might eventually ‘swallow’ all of sub-Saharan Africa, by 1990 the offensive had fizzled out: ideologically and financially broken, Moscow cut military aid, suspended credit lines, wound down diplomatic representations, closed cultural centres and ultimately withdrew political support. When rebel forces advanced towards Addis Ababa in 1991, Moscow stood idly by as the Derg regime – its former poster child – disintegrated. Over the course of the next two decades, post-Soviet Russia showed little interest in the sub-continent and only in the late 2010s did the Kremlin once again display the ambition to play a greater geopolitical role: sub-Saharan Africa remerged in Russian political discourse and trade and diplomatic traffic picked up. Simultaneously, Moscow revived alumni associations of Africans who studied in the Soviet Union and launched initiatives to lure more students to Russia. The Wagner Group – a military enterprise connected to the Russian state – also expanded its radius of action south of the Sahara. But what is driving Moscow’s renewed activism? How different it is from its previous diplomatic thrusts? Can a coherent strategy be discerned behind this push? Finally, how is sub-Saharan Africa reacting to Russia’s overtures and what does it mean for the EU?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

2. Resetting Ethiopia: Will the state heal or fail?

Author:
Giovanni Faleg
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
While democratic reforms should in principle promote peace and stability, to what extent can they also exacerbate political violence? Although the academic debate is controversial with regard to this question,1 Ethiopia provides a good test case to look at conflict prevention from the perspective of a country that recently experienced a peaceful transfer of power, followed by fast-paced reformism, and can as a result either stabilise or fall back into conflict. Since the appointment of Abiy Ahmed Ali as prime minister in April 2018, Ethiopia has undergone a profound transformation. These changes are the result of the peaceful stepping down of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in January 2018 in response to severe societal turmoil. In an attempt to mitigate conflict and avoid extreme fragility, the new leadership sought to accelerate its progress towards democratisation, expanded political freedoms, introduced market liberalisation and developed a new approach to foreign policy, which led, inter alia, to the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea. These transformations, however, have not occurred without turbulence. Insecurity and ethnic tensions have been worsening, leading to an unprecedented crisis of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The new foreign policy course paved the way for trade opportunities, but also new border tensions. A coup launched by Brigadier General Asaminew Tsige on 22 June 2019 attempted to seize power in Amhara’s regional capital Bahir Dar. The attempt failed, but the coup resulted in the assassination of the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces General Seare Mekonnen and revealed to the world the country’s precarious political situation. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the drivers and prospects of the ongoing democratic transition in Ethiopia. It argues that while the implementation of reforms launched by the current leadership has the potential to deliver progress on democracy and growth, the outcome of the transition depends on a set of factors (domestic, economic and external), which in turn delineate three possible avenues: spiralling instability and relapse into conflict, gradual stabilisation and democratisation, or a mix of democratisation and turmoil. The conclusion outlines the possible contribution of the international community to reinforce the resilience of the Ethiopian state and its capacity to heal by bridging gaps in the current government’s ambitious reform agenda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Reform, Geopolitics, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

3. The EU and China's engagement in Africa: the dilemma of socialisation

Author:
Liu Lirong
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
China's engagement in Africa has obliged the EU to re-evaluate its own relationship with Africa. Since 2008, in an attempt to resolve the conflicts of norms and interests, the EU has proposed establishing a trilateral dialogue and cooperation mechanism between the EU, China and Africa, which so far has not yielded any substantial results. The differences between China's and the EU's Africa policies are mainly visible in two areas: aid and security. The contradiction between their respective aid policies lies in China's 'no-strings-attached aid' versus European 'conditionality' or emphasis on 'fundamental principles'. The contradiction between their security approaches in Africa lies in China's non-interference policy and the European concept of human security. Promoting common normative values and principles is at the core of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which is important for the EU's self-construction at present. China's non-interference policy is related to its domestic security and stability and in this context it engages in its own rhetoric. In matters of principle it is difficult for both sides to make compromises or accept limitations imposed by the other.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

4. Quelle politique pour l'UE au Zimbabwe aujourd'hui?

Author:
Vincent Darracq
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Après l'entrée en vigueur au Zimbabwe du Global Political Agreement (GPA) en septembre 2008 et la formation du Gouvernement d'Unité nationale (GNU) rassemblant ZANU-PF et opposition en février 2009, la politique européenne n'a pas connu de modification fondamentale : elle s'articule toujours autour d'un double arsenal de « sanctions » établi en 2002, constitué de mesures restrictives et appropriées, et seulement révisé à la marge en février 2010. De nouveaux développements ont cependant eu lieu : la reprise du dialogue politique dans le cadre de l'Article 8 de l'Accord de Cotonou et une augmentation substantielle d'une aide humanitaire s'apparentant à de l'aide au développement qui ne dit pas son nom. Une relation nouvelle s'est également engagée sur le sujet entre l'UE et l'Afrique du Sud, l'acteur régional dominant, depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir à Pretoria du président Jacob Zuma en mai 2009. Sur le problème zimbabwéen, l'Afrique du Sud s'est imposée depuis 2000 comme l'interlocuteur et l'intermédiaire incontournable, et a de fait pris en charge, sous mandats de l'Union Africaine, de la SADC ou du Commonwealth, les discussions successives entre acteurs zimbabwéens. Sous Zuma, les échanges UE-Afrique du Sud sur la question zimbabwéenne sont plus francs et cordiaux. La tenue probable d'élections anticipées en 2011 a en particulier été identifiée par les deux partenaires comme une opportunité de travailler en bonne entente pour favoriser une sortie de crise. Mais l'Afrique du Sud reste contrainte dans son action par la SADC, ce qui incarne la dimension proprement régionale de la crise zimbabwéenne, et par l'intransigeance de l'UE sur sa politique de sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe