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1. Pivoting to African Conflict Prevention? An Analysis of Continental and Regional Early Warning Systems

Author:
Amandine Gnanguênon
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Early warning systems (EWS) are at the heart of conflict prevention strategies, particularly as a component of operational prevention. EWS support decision-makers with timely information, analysis and response options. Although the first generation of EWS have been around since the 1970s and 1980s, they did not come to prominence until the 1990s. In the aftermath of the war trauma in Somalia and the Mano River region (Liberia and Sierra Leone) and the 1994 Rwanda genocide, African EWS – in particular those of the Organisation of African Unity, its successor, the African Union (AU), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – were developed to address threats to human security. These EWS have served as a strong foundation for early warning and early action (EWEA) in the continent. Many lessons have been learned in particular from West Africa’s experience, namely from the ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network (ECOWARN), launched in 2003. ECOWARN has the capability to reform institutions from within the organisation and take grassroots perspectives into account, positioning it as the most advanced regional EWEA system in Africa. Creating the AU in 2002 marked a shift from non-intervention to non-indifference at the continental level. The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) was an opportunity for African states to display strong political will to develop conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms, by establishing the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) as one of the APSA’s five components. Over the years, multiple reinforcements have provided African institutions and member states with human, logistical and financial capacities to monitor, analyse and develop tailored and timely responses and policy options to address security challenges. Yet the EWEA gap, at both continental (CEWS) and regional (ECOWARN) levels, remains substantial and affects the full operationalisation of the prevention agenda. Why have political decision-makers not implemented those preventive tools adequately? How can closer relationships between regional and continental EWS in Africa bridge the EWEA gap? To answer these questions, this Conflict Series Brief investigates the challenges and opportunities of cooperation between ECOWARN, the most sophisticated African regional EWEA system, and CEWS, a continental hub for data collection and analysis. It begins by analysing the impact of a lack of clear and systematic collaboration between regional and continental organisations on the development of the overall African EWS. While challenges remain in the institutional division of labour between the AU and ECOWAS, there has been progress in designing their EWS and implementing data collection and analysis. The second part of this Brief argues that the persistent EWEA gap lies in three main challenges on which CEWS and ECOWARN have focused their efforts: the lack of regular interaction between early warning (EW) officials and decision-makers, the unpredictability of conflict dynamics and the political dimensions of conflict responses. The Brief concludes by presenting some lessons learned for Africa’s prevention agenda.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Reform, Conflict, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Three Scenarios for Sudan: From non-violent revolution to democratic reform?

Author:
Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
On 11 April, Sudan’s long-standing head of state, President al-Bashir, was removed from office by his military generals following a large-scale non-violent uprising against the regime. Four months later, on 17 August, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the opposition coalition Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) signed a power-sharing agreement establishing a three-year transitional regime set up to steer the country towards democratic elections. The agreement forged in August was underpinned by the same dynamics that led to the overthrow of the regime in April: determined non-violent resistance demanding a transition to civilian-led rule. These events in Sudan demonstrate the potential of strategic non-violence in bringing about societal change, even in the face of violent repression. Indeed, research has found that non-violent resistance, defined as ‘the application of unarmed civilian power using non-violent methods such as protests, strikes, boycotts, and demonstrations, without using or threatening physical harm against the opponent’, is not only increasingly frequent but also more effective in achieving its goals than violent rebellion. Moreover, recent studies show that non-violent resistance creates better foundations for building democratic institutions than armed or elite-led transitions. In the light of these research findings, there is genuine potential for democratic transition in Sudan.
Topic:
War, Social Movement, Reform, Conflict, Protests, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

3. Resetting Ethiopia: Will the state heal or fail?

Author:
Giovanni Faleg
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
While democratic reforms should in principle promote peace and stability, to what extent can they also exacerbate political violence? Although the academic debate is controversial with regard to this question,1 Ethiopia provides a good test case to look at conflict prevention from the perspective of a country that recently experienced a peaceful transfer of power, followed by fast-paced reformism, and can as a result either stabilise or fall back into conflict. Since the appointment of Abiy Ahmed Ali as prime minister in April 2018, Ethiopia has undergone a profound transformation. These changes are the result of the peaceful stepping down of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in January 2018 in response to severe societal turmoil. In an attempt to mitigate conflict and avoid extreme fragility, the new leadership sought to accelerate its progress towards democratisation, expanded political freedoms, introduced market liberalisation and developed a new approach to foreign policy, which led, inter alia, to the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea. These transformations, however, have not occurred without turbulence. Insecurity and ethnic tensions have been worsening, leading to an unprecedented crisis of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The new foreign policy course paved the way for trade opportunities, but also new border tensions. A coup launched by Brigadier General Asaminew Tsige on 22 June 2019 attempted to seize power in Amhara’s regional capital Bahir Dar. The attempt failed, but the coup resulted in the assassination of the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces General Seare Mekonnen and revealed to the world the country’s precarious political situation. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the drivers and prospects of the ongoing democratic transition in Ethiopia. It argues that while the implementation of reforms launched by the current leadership has the potential to deliver progress on democracy and growth, the outcome of the transition depends on a set of factors (domestic, economic and external), which in turn delineate three possible avenues: spiralling instability and relapse into conflict, gradual stabilisation and democratisation, or a mix of democratisation and turmoil. The conclusion outlines the possible contribution of the international community to reinforce the resilience of the Ethiopian state and its capacity to heal by bridging gaps in the current government’s ambitious reform agenda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Reform, Geopolitics, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Sub-Saharan Africa