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2. China is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific--At Least Not Yet
- Author:
- Jonathan Pryke
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In an atmosphere of heightened geostrategic competition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about the risk of debt problems in less-developed countries. Such risks are especially worrying for the small and fragile economies of the Pacific. A close look at the evidence suggests that China has not been engaged in debt-trap diplomacy in the Pacific, at least not so far. Nonetheless, if future Chinese lending continues on a business-as-usual basis, serious problems of debt sustainability will arise, and concerns about quality and corruption are valid.There have been recent signs that both China and Pacific Island governments recognize the need for reform. China needs to adopt formal lending rules similar to those of the multilateral development banks, providing more favorable terms to countries at greater risk of debt distress. Alternative approaches might include replacing or partially replacing EXIM loans with the interest-free loans and grants that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce already provides.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
3. America's Voluntary Standards System--A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?
- Author:
- Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Europe
4. Rising Tensions Over China's Monopoly on Rare Earths?
- Author:
- Jane Nakano
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The United States, Japan, and the European Union—the three key consumers of Chinese rare earth materials—formally complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in March about Chinese restrictions on its rare earth exports. Several weeks later, China announced the establishment of a 150-plus member association with the official aim of promoting sustainable development within this sector. Some analysts wonder if this is part of a Chinese plan to circumvent international complaints by instituting an oligopolistic arrangement to control its rare earth exports. Others ask if this could be another step in an escalating dispute with China over the global supply of rare earth materials.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, and Europe
5. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model
- Author:
- ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, and Israel
6. Population Policy, Economic Reform, and Fertility Decline in Guangdong Province, China
- Author:
- Jiajian Chen, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, and Cui Hongyan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This paper examines Guangdong's fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 and analyzes how it has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic development. Guangdong's economic development has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The effect of this migration on Guangdong's fertility is an important part of the story. Measures of fertility and nuptiality employed in the analysis include the total fertility rate, parity progression ratios, mean age at first marriage, mean age at first birth, and mean closed birth interval between first and second birth. These measures are calculated from birth histories reconstructed from data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census. An overlapping-trend analysis provides indications of the accuracy of the estimates.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel