Publishing Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs / Political Geography: North America / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 10 Years

1. Encouraging Farmer Adoption of Regenerative Agriculture Practices in the United States

Author:: Kelly Wilson, Stephanie Mercier, and Rob Myers
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Regenerative agriculture can help our food and agricultural systems become more resilient. Farmers and ranchers are facing escalating challenges from climate change as they confront the consistent need to maintain high levels of productivity. Modern farming practices have enabled farmers to increase per acre production substantially over the last several decades, but these practices can also contribute to the depletion of the quantity and quality of natural resources (such as soil and water). There is a potential solution: regenerative agriculture. Regenerative agriculture is an emerging approach to farming that aims to increase farm resiliency by improving soil health, restoring natural resources, and increasing biodiversity through integrated farming practices. It can play a key role in helping farmers develop more resilient production systems and mitigate the challenges they face, all while contributing to the goals of companies supporting these practices, including goals of achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable supply chains. Regenerative agriculture does, however, face barriers that impede its adoption, namely financial concerns, access to necessary materials, equipment, and infrastructure, knowledge and education, time, and land tenure. Through public and private programs aimed at supporting farmers' adoption of regenerative agricultural practices, it is possible to reduce barriers to implementation and build farmer capacities, ultimately championing a regenerative future for agriculture.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, Sustainability, Resilience, and Farming
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

2. Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa

Author:: Elizabeth Shackelford, Ethan Kessler, and Emma Sanderson
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The US strategy toward Africa today is neither effective nor sustainable. It’s time to flip the script. US policy in Africa has for too long prioritized short-term security to the detriment of long-term stability by prioritizing the provision of military and security assistance. This is done in hopes that partner countries will use this capacity to suppress radical groups at home and reduce the likelihood that they will spread disorder in the region or create threats to US interests at home and abroad. Yet, this strategy has neither produced security in Africa nor reduced threats to the United States and its interests. Washington should rein in its use of security assistance with partners that fail to demonstrate commitment to the reforms necessary to build long-term stability. Partnerships and military assistance with illiberal, undemocratic countries have delivered little, if any, sustainable security improvements, and in many cases have prompted further instability and violence by building the capacity of abusive security forces. They have also provided harmful associations between the US government and the abuses committed by those we arm and assist. Since terrorism in Africa poses a low threat to US national security interests, there is no justification for focusing on short-term security issues at the cost of good governance, rule of law, and other factors that contribute to long-term stability. The costs of doing so are increasingly being recognized, with Congress today more likely to apply existing legal provisions to end security cooperation with abusive regimes. But these interventions typically come too late and are too inconsistent to influence behavior of illiberal regimes. A more systemic approach is needed to break the pattern of poor outcomes. The rise of great-power competition exacerbates the risk that the US national security establishment will double down on its security cooperation strategy in the region out of concern that doing otherwise would leave a vacuum that America’s competitors might fill. In reality, however, the argument for being more selective in distributing security assistance is even stronger with the return of great-power competition, as values and reputation become increasingly important in attracting support for the United States over other great powers. Security and military assistance will continue to play a role in the region. However, the United States would be better off being more deliberate and cautious, only pursuing it after completing a holistic assessment of the potential impact of such assistance on governance, human rights, and broader stability. Security assistance can and must be more closely scrutinized with enhanced US government oversight tools to ensure it does not undermine governance and stability, and Washington should be more willing to choose different tools when shaping relationships with weak partners, to condition assistance to ensure it does not facilitate bad outcomes, and to cut it off when partner countries use it to abuse civilians.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

3. The Quad's Next Chapter

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Advancing the group's pillars of prosperity and development will be at the very heart of competition with China in the coming decade. The Quad—the country grouping including the United States, Japan, Australia, and India—now stands at a crossroads as it enters its third phase. The Quad 3.0 comes as the grouping has established the dialogue as a meeting place for leaders of the four countries but must now decide what shape competition with China will take and how to best address that competition. Thus far the Quad has struggled to find function for its form. Statements issued by Quad leaders stress the importance of “development, stability, and prosperity” in an effort to roll back China’s influence across the Indo-Pacific. However, its most high-profile activities focus on stability via high-profile military exercises. Closer internal coordination along the security axis serves to highlight the lack of visible progress on the external delivery of development and prosperity to countries outside the Quad. Efforts to deliver development and prosperity are hemmed in by the Quad itself. Neither the United States or India are party to either of the major regional trade agreements—the CPTPP and RCEP. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), held up by the Biden administration as America’s economic engagement with Asia, remains a mirage. Meanwhile, as the United States de-risks its economic relationship with China, it is effectively warning that doing business with Beijing may come at a cost to relations with Washington—an unpopular message across much of the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, any hint of security cooperation with China by smaller countries in the region creates a flurry of diplomatic reaction from the United States. To move forward, the Quad needs to better balance its portfolio and how it messages that portfolio. The overt promotion of the security agenda is actively undermining perceptions of the Quad’s ability to engage on development and prosperity. A first corrective step is to balance the group’s internal goal of improved security coordination and cohesion with the Quad’s external goal of delivering development and prosperity to countries in the region. Committing to an agenda that brings the people of the region, not its seas, to the fore of the Quad mission should be a top priority. This means rejecting the dogma that every China initiative in the region needs a Quad alternative. Instead, advancing Quad goals requires identifying China’s activities that can be co-opted for Quad purposes. This will mean working around, and sometimes with, China’s initiatives to better serve not only the Quad’s goals in prosperity and development but also the people of the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Competition, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, South Asia, India, East Asia, Australia, North America, United States of America, and Oceania

4. The Case for Inclusive Agricultural Development

Author:: Benjamin Allen, Jacqueline Ashby, John Coonrod, and Wawira Njiru
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Amid shifts towards inclusive agricultural development, the Center for Global Food and Agriculture offers policy recommendations for further US government action. Reflecting both the development consensus and the challenges of transformational reform, USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced an ambitious new focus on inclusive development for the agency in 2021. Her announcement followed the publication of a draft policy on local capacity development, which provides a framework for shifting overall organizational approaches to development. The policy helps establish an agencywide understanding of what locally led development means and a unified system for building on local strengths to achieve local goals. Nevertheless, there are substantial and legitimate reasons why inclusive development assistance remains elusive. Recent research from the Brookings Institution provides an excellent summary of the legal and regulatory impediments, including budgetary rigidity, risk mitigation, and the limits of local organizational capacity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Food, and International Development
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

5. Memo on an "Economic Article 5" to Counter Authoritarian Coercion

Author:: Ivo H. Daalder and Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The world's democracies need a way to fight back against coercive economic actions by authoritarian governments, argue Ivo Daalder and Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Increasingly, authoritarian countries are using economic coercion against democracies. In recent years, China’s economic coercion of Lithuania and Australia stands out as a prominent example. Russia uses economic levers to achieve geopolitical aims, notably by weaponizing its natural resources. The aim of such coercion is to bend the will of democratic countries. This is a test for the free world. In response, we propose an Economic Article 5 among democracies to counter authoritarian coercion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Economy, Business, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. US Commitments in Nutrition and Health for a Better Future

Author:: Gloria Dabek, Catherine Bertini, Dan Glickman, and Samanta Dunford
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The United States has made big pledges for global nutrition. Our white paper offers recommendations to turn commitments into action. Approximately 768 million people faced hunger in 2020, over 100 million more than 2019, and the number of those without sufficient nutrients is even higher. In the United States, diet-related disease accounted for over half of all deaths in 2018. Globally, approximately 45 percent of the deaths of children younger than five are related to undernutrition. For decades, the United States has also experienced a rise in chronic diet-related diseases like diabetes, with disproportionate effects seen in communities of color. And as the COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the link between nutrition and both risk and long-term consequences of pathogen infection, urgency to shift governmental nutrition approaches has never been higher. To strengthen domestic and global nutrition, the United States should catalyze critical change, starting with commitments made at the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and additional funded programs, extending further to reach a wider subset of all people suffering from nutrition- and hunger-related diseases. This white paper analyzes primary nutrition challenges, particularly issues of health, access, and education, and recommends policy actions that community, federal, private, and academic institutions can take domestically and globally to progress toward a well-nourished future.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, and Global Health
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

7. From Climate Pledges to Transformative Action

Author:: Julia Whiting and Ertharin Cousin
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Can the United States deliver on its food systems and climate commitments? We offer recommendations to protect the planet and feed the world. The momentous 2021 global convenings on food, climate change, and nutrition—the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), and the Nutrition for Growth Summit—each prompted new initiatives and funding commitments. But promises alone, no matter how bold or big, are not enough to transform the global food system, end hunger, and prevent climate catastrophe. Acknowledging the unprecedented potential of recent commitments and international attention given to food systems and climate change, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs convened an expert roundtable with representatives from the private, public, academic, and nonprofit sectors to move beyond abstract goals to identify concrete actionable steps for US agrifood stakeholders. This paper outlines three key areas for action that were identified through the roundtable and offers recommendations to the private sector, donor community, civil society, academia, and government.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8. Combating Global Hunger as an American Foreign Policy Priority

Author:: Gloria Dabek and Emily Sullivan
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: While not traditionally prioritized as a tool of foreign policy, combatting world hunger has high bipartisan support from the American public. Global hunger can often get lost in American foreign policy discussions amid concerns about military engagements, trade relationships, and international cooperation and competition. However, the 2021 Chicago Council Survey found that a majority of Americans believe that combating global hunger should be of some importance to US foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Food, Public Opinion, and Hunger
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9. Global Food Security Act Reauthorization: New and Lingering Challenges

Author:: Gloria Dabek
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Amid new challenges to global food security, the Center for Global Food and Agriculture analyzes necessary changes to the Global Food Security Act Reauthorization. The Global Food Security Act (GFSA) authorizes the Feed the Future Initiative (FTF), the US government’s premier effort to address the root causes of hunger and poverty in lower- and middle-income countries. The GFSA must recognize how the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change wreak havoc on global food security efforts.
Topic:: Agriculture, Poverty, Food, Hunger, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and Global Focus

10. US Arms Sales Reveal Discord in Taiwan's Defense Strategy

Author:: Ethan Kessler
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Washington has started selling arms that serve a "porcupine" defense strategy to Taiwan. Whether Taipei fully embraces this new approach remains to be seen. Taiwan, claimed by China as a rogue province and armed by the United States, is at a crossroads. Should it continue buying big-ticket US arms, such as advanced fighter jets and tanks, to counter Chinese forces in case of a blockade or invasion? Taipei’s longstanding conventional strategy, which calls for these kinds of arms, views the ambiguous US defense commitment as concerning. Since Washington may not intervene against a Chinese attack, conventionalists want to hold on to Taiwan’s traditional, long-range weapons. Conventionalists also claim that buying big-ticket arms strengthens Washington’s political commitment to Taiwan. However, officials and experts increasingly see another strategy as prudent. Recent Chinese economic growth and military modernization have greatly enhanced Beijing’s capabilities, to the point that many believe Taiwan could not hold out alone against a Chinese invasion. Reformers thus argue that Taiwan needs to start building its forces around small, easily distributed weapons such as mobile anti-ship missiles and patrol boats and make greater investments in reserve forces and territorial defense. This “porcupine” defense strategy can theoretically buy more time for US forces to arrive in a war. The fate of Taiwan’s military strategy, which also depends greatly on political relations between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, will help determine the strength of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. A breakdown in this deterrence could lead to US-China war. The United States not only influences Taiwan’s strategy, but has a great stake in its future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, Defense Spending, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11. Rebuilding the Midwest's infrastructure: Driving equitable economic recovery in a world reshaped by COVID-19

Author:: John Austin and Alexander Hitch
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: In the midst of a national discussion about the need to update our infrastructure, the Midwest is primed for a new round of investment. The agenda for the country and for the Midwest must reflect the realities of an economy and society shaped by longstanding structural, economic, racial, and geographic inequities, accentuated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, this moment offers a clear opportunity to ensure that a new infrastructure development plan capitalizes on the unique assets and economic opportunities inherent to each region to accelerate economic growth and spread its benefits to more people and places. In the Midwest, this agenda includes several core components. It must adapt to the economic realities of the post-COVID-19 world. It must also contribute to innovation in a host of sectors—from manufacturing to product-delivery systems to health care—while enhancing the ability to organize state- and local-level infrastructure initiatives. Finally, it must dovetail with the urgent need and newfound political will to close gaps in equity and opportunity based on race, income, and geography.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

12. Democrats, Republicans Support Alliances, Disagree on International Organizations

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: While Americans of all political stripes remain committed to allies and alliances, the public is divided along partisan lines on the value of international organizations. Upon entering office, one of Joe Biden’s first orders of foreign policy business will be to start the long process of repairing America’s standing abroad. Such an effort will begin with mending fences with allies and partners around the world. The good news for the Biden administration is that Americans of all political stripes remain committed to allies and alliances. But beyond the US alliance network, the public is divided along partisan lines on the value of international organizations. While Democrats remain committed to multilateralism and cooperating with the international community, Republicans—as they have since at least the early 2000s—remain skeptical about international organizations and working with the international community more broadly.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Organization, Public Opinion, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13. Divisions on US-China Policy: Opinion Leaders and the Public

Author:: Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua W. Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, and Jonathan Monten
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, Jonathan Monten, and Jordan Tama analyze recent surveys of foreign policy professionals and the American public on the degree of threat posed by China and how the United States should respond. As President Joseph Biden returns to the White House, this time to sit behind the Resolute desk, perhaps no foreign policy question looms larger than that of US-China relations. The results of the 2020 Chicago Council Survey and the 2020 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-University of Texas at Austin survey of foreign policy professionals and the American public find there are significant partisan differences among leaders and the public on the degree of threat posed by China and how the United States should respond. When it comes to defending Taiwan, however, the divisions are not between partisans but between the public and opinion leaders, with the public in opposition and leaders in support of an American defense of Taiwan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: China, East Asia, North America, and United States of America

14. Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Reassuring America's Allies

Author:: Ivo H. Daalder, Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: In recent decades, the threat of nuclear proliferation has emanated primarily from the Middle East and from south and northeast Asia. But the proliferation threat wasn’t always concentrated in these regions. Long before countries like North Korea and Iran topped the list of nuclear threats, leaders in Washington and elsewhere worried about a different group of countries—America’s allies in Europe and Asia. Indeed, in the early 1960s, intelligence officials projected that by the mid-1970s there likely would be 10 to 15 nuclear powers in the world within a decade, as countries like Australia, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey would opt to join a growing nuclear club. The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 was designed to prevent this, and it did. But it succeeded in large part because of a concerted US effort since the 1960s to reassure its allies around the world that America’s nuclear umbrella would extend to their territory and ensure their security. Rather than developing their own national nuclear capabilities, key allies in Europe and Asia opted to rely on the US nuclear guarantee instead. Since the NPT entered into force in 1970, just four countries (India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea) have acquired nuclear weapons. More recently, however, questions about the credibility of the American nuclear guarantee have arisen again in Europe and Asia. Allies in both regions confront growing military threats from a resurgent Russia, a rising China, and a nuclear North Korea. At the same time, successive US administrations have sought to retreat from some longstanding commitments, leaving America’s allies around the world uncertain whether they can still rely on the United States for their defense and security—nuclear and otherwise. So far, the discussions about nuclear deterrence and reassurance have played out largely beyond public view. But the issue is becoming increasingly salient, given growing threats from Russia and China especially, and growing doubts about the United States. America and its allies cannot ignore this new reality. For if we are to prevent new nuclear proliferation among these allies, it is essential to acknowledge that what has long been unthinkable is becoming thinkable once more.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Europe, East Asia, North America, and United States of America

15. Centering Global Food Security for Global Prosperity

Author:: Catherine Bertini and Ertharin Cousin
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The new Biden Administration will face global crises on multiple fronts. COVID-19, coupled with conflict and escalating climate disasters, is leading to one of the most disastrous humanitarian and hunger crises in the last century. In the past decade, previous Administrations have demonstrated the value and impact of food security and nutrition security programs for alleviating hunger and malnutrition and for reducing the threat of conflict and governmental instability. As a result of targeted and thoughtful assistance, there are 23.4 million more people today who live above the poverty line and 3.4 million more children are free from stunting. More than 5 million families now live free from hunger and billions of dollars in agricultural sales have been generated. The Biden Administration has the opportunity to build on a strong foundation of work. To strengthen this programming in the next decade, key considerations should include: Creating a more resilient and healthful food system that is capable of absorbing shocks and stressors. Systems thinking—especially the integration of food, nutrition, health, climate, and agriculture—can drive sustainable outcomes. Building inclusive partnerships from the beginning to create sustainable and resilient communities. Investing in agricultural economies beyond US borders should be understood as an investment in critical infrastructure that stretches back to our own heartland.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Food, Hunger, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: North America and Global Focus

16. Cooperation or Coercion? The Views of US Opinion Leaders on Foreign Policy Approaches

Author:: Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua W. Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, and Jonathan Monten
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Following four years of former President Donald Trump’s “America first” foreign policy, President Joe Biden is seeking to reorient the US approach to world affairs, placing much greater emphasis on international cooperation. This reorientation has already been evident in Biden’s decisions to return the United States to the Paris climate agreement, extend the New START arms control treaty with Russia, remain in the World Health Organization, reengage with the United Nations Human Rights Council, and commit to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal if Iran returns to complying with it. To what extent do Democratic, Republican, and Independent foreign policy professionals support Biden’s international agenda? The results of the 2020 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-University of Texas at Austin survey of more than 900 US executive branch officials, congressional staff, think tank scholars, university professors, journalists, and interest group representatives indicates there is substantial support among leaders of different political persuasions for a greater emphasis on cooperation and less reliance on coercion in foreign policy. However, this consensus also has a partisan tilt: Democrats and Independents are far more likely to agree on cooperative foreign policy approaches the United States should use, while Republicans are more comfortable with coercive measures. Taken together, these findings suggest that Biden should be able to attract strong support for his foreign policy from Democratic and Independent members of the foreign 2 policy community but will find it much more difficult to gain Republican backing for many of his international initiatives.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Economy, Business, Trade, and Survey
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and North America

17. Despite Political Tension, Americans and Russians See Cooperation as Essential

Author:: Dina Smeltz, Brendan Helm, Denis Volkov, and Stepan Goncharov
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: A joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center survey shows few Russians or Americans expect great changes to US-Russia ties now or in the next 10 years, although both publics see the merits of collaboration. According to a January–February 2021 joint survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center in Moscow, neither Russians nor Americans expect the new US administration to prompt a reset in bilateral relations. While many Russians have yet to form an opinion of US President Joseph Biden, few in either country expect great changes to US-Russia ties now or even in the next 10 years. Despite this anticipated stasis, both publics acknowledge the importance of bilateral cooperation on a number of long-term foreign policy issues.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Survey
Political Geography:: Russia, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

18. US, Japan, and South Korea Coordination Key to Competing in Southeast Asia

Author:: Karl Friedhoff and Lea Chang
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: In picking fronts that offer the paths of least resistance, trilateral cooperation will maximize the presence of all three countries in ASEAN, maintaining balance in the region and making collective progress toward economic and development goals. Despite its size, economic dynamism, and geographic position, Southeast Asia has received comparatively little attention in US foreign policy. Even as American policy becomes more focused on China, the United States lacks a coordinated strategy to respond to and compete with China’s vast trade and investment in Southeast Asia. But most ASEAN countries are wary of China’s growing influence and would be open to US involvement as they look to diversify. To take advantage of this opportunity, the United States must supplement its focus on the South China Sea with diplomatic and financial efforts on land. These efforts should offer an alternative to China’s largesse but should not seek a direct competition in hard infrastructure or in terms of dollar amounts invested. Nor should the United States go it alone. Instead, it should seek to cooperate with its allies—Japan and South Korea in particular—to pursue their respective competitive advantages. These include identifying and investing in small- and medium-sized enterprises in ASEAN, developing human capital in the region, and conducting joint maritime cleanup activities in coordination with ASEAN countries. Creating coordinated activities with Japan and South Korea in Southeast Asia should be the first step for the United States to roll back China’s influence in the region. But these efforts will need to be calibrated to ensure that they focus on the needs of countries in the region and not just engulf the region in the US-China competition.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Infrastructure, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

19. Americans, Japanese, and South Koreans Wary of China's Intentions

Author:: Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Dina Smeltz
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: American, Japanese, and South Korean publics see China as a more of a threat than a partner. Trilateral cooperation will be key to managing China's rise. Against a backdrop of growing regional rivalry, March and April 2021 surveys conducted in the United States, Japan, and South Korea show that publics in all three countries share similar views of China’s growing influence and intentions. But the data also show that internal divisions within the US-Japan-South Korea relationship will pose challenges to deeper cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Japan, China, East Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

20. For First Time, Half of Americans Favor Defending Taiwan If China Invades

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: 2021 Chicago Council Survey data show a majority of Americans support a range of US policies towards Taiwan: recognition as an independent country, inclusion in international organizations, and a US-Taiwan free trade agreement. Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are running high. Chinese intimidation of Taiwan has increased since 2016, demonstrated by naval drills in the Taiwan Strait, incursions into Taiwanese airspace, and economic coercion targeted at Taiwanese industries. In turn, the United States has sold advanced weapons to Taiwan and normalized US warship transits nearby. While past administrations have not made formal commitments to defend Taiwan, the just-completed 2021 Chicago Council Survey finds that for the first time, a slim majority of Americans now favor sending US troops to defend Taiwan if China invades.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Free Trade, and Survey
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, and United States of America

21. Renewing International Extension to Equip Farmers for a Changing Climate

Author:: Gloria Dabek
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The climate crisis necessitates a new extension agenda that prioritizes farmer needs and preferences and promotes climate resilience and adaptation. US policy should reflect this new extension agenda to ensure farmers have the tools to succeed in providing for themselves, and ultimately, feeding the world. Climate change is causing more extreme weather events such as flooding, droughts, and heatwaves. Farmers are seeking to quickly adapt to a crisis that is worsening with time. Tools that were previously used by farmers, however, may no longer be effective to combat changing conditions. Agricultural extension plays an equally critical role in delivering those findings and innovations to farmers, ensuring they have the best information and tools available for success. The climate crisis requires a global response, and it is now more urgent than ever to equip farmers worldwide to address these challenges. The United States has a long history in international agricultural extension with mixed results, as some initially successful efforts did not endure. With our strong R&D and extension infrastructure, the United States has the opportunity to reevaluate and bolster its international extension efforts and provide global leadership to more effectively deliver on taxpayer dollars and provide smallholder farmers the assistance they need. Farmers require accurate and context-appropriate innovations and knowledge to address climate challenges and provide food-secure futures for themselves, their communities, and the world. A revised extension agenda must account for the abundant possibilities provided by information and communications technology (ICT) as well as ensure new innovations and knowledge are sustainable environmentally, financially, and locally. While this brief is not intended as a comprehensive review, it examines current US international agricultural extension efforts, identifies gaps, examines best practices, and proposes policy recommendations for a new extension agenda.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:: North America and Global Focus

22. 2021 Chicago Council Survey: A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class—What Americans Think

Author:: Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Emily Sullivan
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: While the Biden administration seems to understand where Americans stand on China and domestic renewal to support global competitiveness, the data disproves their assumptions that Americans are skeptical about trade and weary of US global engagement and leadership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Trade, and Survey
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

23. Are Urbanites Willing to Ditch Cars for More Sustainable Commutes?

Author:: Samuel Kling and Alexander Hitch
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: A recent poll from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and The Harris Poll shows urban and suburban residents cities are looking to sustainable mobility to forestall a potential long-term shift to solo driving. With public transit ridership down sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, cities are looking to sustainable mobility to forestall a potential long-term shift to solo driving. Sustainable mobility options such as public transit, cycling, and e-scooters can offer safe, affordable travel to residents. They can make transportation networks more resilient. Significantly, they can also reduce emissions from transportation, the source of about one-third of total carbon emissions in C40 member cities. Because many urban trips are short–in Chicago, half are less than three miles–advocates have long noted the potential for some solo car trips to be replaced with cycling, walking, e-scooters, or the bus. But how willing are urban residents to replace car trips with more sustainable modes? A recent poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and The Harris Poll surveyed urban and suburban residents in six large US metropolitan regions: New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Houston, and Phoenix. The survey data represent the aggregated responses of residents across these metropolitan regions.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Public Opinion, Cities, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America, Chicago, Global Focus, and United States of America

24. Disappointed in Rouhani, Iranians Seek a Different Sort of Leader in June Elections

Author:: Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Amir Farmanesh
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: New indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the Iran deal could help the outlook for a moderate candidate in the next election. Iranian presidential elections are set for June 18. The current president, Hassan Rouhani, who earned initial praise in Iran after successful negotiations for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is ineligible for reelection and has steadily lost public support after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. A joint survey of the Iranian public conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and IranPoll provides insights into how Iranians view this pivotal moment for Iran. Iranians view Rouhani’s policies quite negatively, especially his economic policies, and for their next leader they want someone who is critical of Rouhani. However, while Iranians did not feel the economic improvements from the JCPOA they expected, new indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the agreement could help the outlook for a moderate candidate.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

25. Ahead of Biden-Moon Summit, South Koreans and Americans Align on China and North Korea

Author:: Karl Friedhoff and Suh Young Park
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Chicago Council survey data find majorities in South Korea view China as more of a security threat than a security partner and as more of an economic threat than an economic partner. On May 21, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in will meet President Joe Biden at the White House. In his first 100 days in office, Biden’s foreign policy has focused on repairing alliances and setting the administration’s policy toward China—in March and April alone, the administration participated in US-China talks in Alaska, 2+2 meetings in South Korea and Japan, trilateral talks among national security advisers, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's visit to Washington. Moon’s visit will add North Korea to the agenda. The two leaders meet at a time when there are significant gaps on their preferred paths forward to dealing with Beijing and Pyongyang. However, recent Chicago Council surveys find that attitudes among publics in South Korea and the United States are remarkably similar when it comes to China and North Korea.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and Southeast Asia

26. Public Attitudes on US Intelligence 2020: Final Trump-Era Survey Confirms Broad Popular Support, Reveals Opportunities for Greater Transparency

Author:: Stephen Slick and Joshua W. Busby
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: A final Trump-Era survey confirms broad popular support for the intelligence community and reveals opportunities for greater transparency. The University of Texas-Austin’s 2020 survey reaffirmed Americans’ broad-based belief that our intelligence agencies are vital to protecting the nation and effective in accomplishing their core missions. Our fourth annual poll was the last conducted during Donald Trump’s presidency. The high levels of public support for the intelligence community (IC) recorded over the life of this project have proven stable and remarkably resilient to the persistent public criticism by the former president and his political allies. Close examination of the survey data may help inform a strategy aimed at further enhancing the IC’s democratic legitimacy through increased openness and renewed public engagement. Indeed, a majority of the participants in our 2020 survey agreed that the IC could share more information with the American people without compromising its effectiveness.
Topic:: Intelligence, Politics, Public Opinion, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

27. With Tensions Receding, Americans Lose Fear of North Korea

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: North Korea’s promise to deliver an end-of-year “Christmas gift” went unfulfilled amid signs that the United States wanted to continue diplomacy with the Kim regime. This has led to a continued lull in tensions between the two countries, although actual progress in negotiations remains elusive. With that lack of progress, President Donald Trump has reportedly told his advisers that he does not want another summit with Kim Jong Un before the US presidential election in November. In a survey conducted from January 10–12, 2020, the American public is now less concerned about the threat posed by North Korea, but little else has changed in terms of Americans’ policy preferences to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program. Majorities still oppose airstrikes against North Korea and support long-term military bases in South Korea.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

28. Majority of Iranians Oppose Development of Nuclear Weapons

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Amir Farmanesh
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Both the United States and Iran have been among the countries worst hit by the coronavirus, but neither country has moved away from mutual confrontation. Nationwide surveys conducted by IranPoll this winter – before the spread of the virus and before the US strike against Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani – show that although Iranians say their country should not develop nuclear weapons, they have lost confidence in the nuclear agreement and think that the P5+1 countries (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council including China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—plus Germany) have not lived up to their obligations. Chicago Council survey results from January 2020 show that a majority of Americans say they would favor rejoining the agreement if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, Disarmament, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

29. Troop Withdrawal Likely to Undermine South Korean Public Support for Alliance with United States

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The United States and South Korea remain locked in negotiations over the Special Measures Agreement (SMA)—the agreement which formally determines how much South Korea contributes to the financial cost of stationing US troops in South Korea. In the past, these negotiations took place behind the scenes away from the public eye. But keeping details of this round of negotiations private proved difficult when it was disclosed that the United States requested $5 billion dollars, an unprecedented 400 percent increase from the previous year. When the two sides failed to reach a deal by April 1, 4,000 Koreans who work on US bases in South Korea were furloughed. The public attention to these negotiations—and the US request being framed as extortive by Korean media and US analysts—raised concerns that the South Korean public’s positive views of the alliance would be damaged. But just-completed polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs suggests that is not the case. Little has changed in terms of South Korean attitudes towards the alliance. The South Korean public remains positive about the alliance, supportive of stationing US troops in South Korea, and confident that the US will defend South Korea if North Korea attacks. But the data also suggests that there are scenarios in which South Korean public confidence could be punctured. Confidence in the US commitment to defend South Korea if attacked by North Korea is strongly related to views that the alliance with the United States is mutually beneficial. This, in turn, implies that the biggest downside risk to support for the alliance stems from actions that would impact US credibility to defend South Korea if North Korea attacks. While a range of actions may trigger a decrease in confidence in US commitment to defend South Korea, one of the most immediate reported to be under consideration is a partial withdrawal of US troops. This move has the potential to shift South Korean attitudes away from seeing the alliance as mutually beneficial and towards views that the alliance benefits only the United States.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, Alliance, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

30. New Solutions for a Changing Climate

Author:: Molly Jahn
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: US public investment in agricultural research in the 20th and 21st centuries has resulted in unprecedented worldwide production of a few staple crops and the improvement of dozens more. Increased crop yields and animal production have drastically reduced famine compared to previous centuries and supported an overall increase in global affluence. Today, agricultural producers around the world are facing new challenges as global climate changes become increasingly unpredictable. Inconsistent rain, extreme temperatures, droughts, flooding, wildfires, and shifting pest and disease patterns are just a few of the obstacles farmers face as they try to feed their families and produce enough food to feed the world. In spite of these dire challenges, US public agricultural research funding has been decreasing over the past several decades. This has allowed competitors such as China and Brazil to outpace American ingenuity, take over American markets, and put American farmers at a disadvantage. The lack of investment in agricultural research and development is a critical national security concern. Historical US agricultural strength has contributed to US hard and soft power around the world. As the US food system is beset by increasing climate, economic, financial, and security threats, US rural communities have been left behind, undermining US power and domestic well-being. Increasing global food insecurity, which has been amplified by increasing weather extremes, will lead to economic and political instability in many areas of the world, further threatening US national security. Although the private sector plays a crucial role in the development of new agricultural techniques and products, public funding has been the backbone of many agriculture and food system advances. While agricultural research and development has historically focused primarily on increasing yields, this narrow focus does not adequately support the food requirements of today’s growing global population. There must be a revitalization of public investment in agricultural research, American food systems, and international agricultural development that focuses on the challenges of the future. US leadership is vital to ensuring the global research agenda does not leave farmers behind. Opportunities to build upon and enhance existing US agricultural research infrastructure across many diverse government entities abound. The US government should recognize these investment opportunities to address current and future climate challenges.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, and Research
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

31. US Experts Consider China a Shifting and India a Stable Friend to Russia

Author:: Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: With both Russia and China facing increasingly confrontational relations with the United States, the two countries have increased ties with each other and have pursued similar approaches in opposition to the US government concerning Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. Steve Biegun, US Deputy Secretary of State, recently characterized the developing relationship between Russia and China as one built on “mutual determination to challenge the United States.” To better understand how experts think about Russia’s relations with the other great powers, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs recently conducted a survey of 201 American experts on Russia. The survey finds that a majority describe the relationship between Russia and China today as one of mostly partnership. They also describe India as primarily a partner to Russia, both today and in the future. By contrast, they say that Russian relations with the United States and the European Union are mostly competitive. But they anticipate that in 20 years, rivalry between Russia and China will grow, perhaps creating space for reducing tensions with the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

32. US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers

Author:: Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers OCTOBER 6, 2020 By: Arik Burakovsky, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University; Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Brendan Helm, Research Assistant Although President Trump initially hoped for improved relations between the United States and Russia, during his tenure the US government has overtly declared Russia a top threat to US national security. Congress and the administration widened Obama-era sanctions against Russia after alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Data from a recent survey of American experts on Russia, conducted by The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs paints Russia as a declining power. The results show that while experts anticipate changes in the global balance of power in the next 20 years, with China overtaking the United States, they do not expect Russia to come out stronger over that time frame. Experts draw attention to Russia’s cracked economic and political foundation in the present and its likely decline over the next two decades due to economic mismanagement and faltering soft power. Now there are the lingering economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to add to this list.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

33. Do Republicans and Democrats Want a Cold War with China?

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Do Republicans and Democrats Want a Cold War with China? OCTOBER 13, 2020 By: Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Craig Kafura, Assistant Director, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy American Views of China Plummet; Public Split on Containment or Cooperation For the first time in nearly two decades, a majority of Americans describe the development of China as a world power as a critical threat to the United States, according to the 2020 Chicago Council Survey. At the same time, American feelings towards China have fallen to their lowest point in Council polling history, dating back to 1978. Reflecting these changing attitudes, Americans are now split on whether the US should cooperate and engage with China or actively seek to limit its influence. This is a significant change. Over the past four years, US-China relations have lurched from one crisis to another. Despite the sharp downturn in relations, and the growing consensus in Washington on pursing a more confrontational approach to China, Chicago Council Survey data through January 2020 showed that this consensus and the growing US-China rivalry had yet to make a deep impact on American views of China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Politics, Public Opinion, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34. Americans Positive on South Korea Despite Trump’s Views on Alliance

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump presidency has strained relations with several Asian allies, including South Korea. But the 2020 Chicago Council Survey results show that President Donald Trump’s repeated threats and bullying tactics on defense and trade issues with Seoul have done little to soften support among the American public for the alliance with South Korea. In fact, favorable views of South Korea are now at an all-time high.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America

35. Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects?

Author:: Paul Hofhuis
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects? OCTOBER 20, 2020 By: Paul Hofhuis, Senior Research Associate, Clingendael Institute As the US presidential election rapidly approaches, an important question is the prospects for (renewed) transatlantic cooperation, especially in the areas of green recovery to the economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, tackling climate change, and addressing these issues through multilateral approaches. In analyzing ambitions and initiatives on both sides of the Atlantic in three connected policy arenas, this brief argues that while a Democratic victory provides greater opportunity for collaboration, underlying structures for cooperation among societal stakeholders in the United States need to be reinvigorated to diminish polarization in society, which could continue to block the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, Economy, Green Technology, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

36. Americans Feel Less Safe after Killing of Soleimani

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: On January 3, the United States launched a drone strike in Iraq that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, ramping up tensions between Washington and Tehran. Results from a just-completed Chicago Council survey show that more Americans think the strike has made the United States less safe than more safe, and more name Iran as the country posing the greatest threat to the United States than any other country. If Iran restarts development toward a nuclear weapon, the US public prefers diplomacy, but more Americans now support military action against Iran.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

37. OK, Boomer: Youth Hesitant to Use Force, Shun US Exceptionalism in Foreign Policy

Author:: Brendan Helm and Dina Smeltz
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Millennials, the oft-referenced generation born in the ’80s and ’90s, are the first generation to have access to the internet in their youth and are the largest and most diverse generation in American history. Now for the first time, Millennials are running for US president: Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard were born in 1982 and 1981 respectively, putting them at the upper limit of the Millennial range. The 2019 Chicago Council Survey data provide insight into how this group views key foreign policy issues compared with previous generations. While there is some evidence that younger Americans are more hesitant to engage in the world and more likely to oppose the use of force than their elders, time will tell whether the post-Cold War and 9/11 experiences have shaped a new generation with enduring preferences for a more restrained, less military-focused foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Public Opinion, and Youth
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

38. American Public Support for US Troops in Middle East Has Grown

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: American Public Support for US Troops in Middle East Has Grown FEBRUARY 10, 2020 By: Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Craig Kafura, Assistant Director, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy “As we defend American lives, we are working to end America’s wars in the Middle East,” President Donald Trump declared at State of the Union on February 4. Democratic presidential candidates, too, have made halting so-called “endless wars” a key talking point, ranging from cutting back troop levels to withdrawing the US military presence in the Middle East. A Chicago Council survey completed January 10–12 shows that as tensions with Iran have risen, Americans see an increased need to keep watch over the Middle East by maintaining a troop presence there. Key Findings: A majority of Americans say the US military presence in the Middle East should be maintained (45%) or increased (29%). Just 24 percent think it should be decreased. A majority support long-term military bases in Iraq (55%, up from 41% in 2014) and Kuwait (57%, up from 47% in 2014). Nearly half favor keeping bases in Afghanistan (48%, up from 43% in 2014). A combined majority (54%) say alliances in the Middle East benefit both Middle East partners and the United States or mostly benefit the United States.
Topic:: Security, Public Opinion, Armed Forces, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

39. Republicans, Democrats Divided over Federal Spending Priorities

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Results from the 2020 Chicago Council Survey, conducted July 2-19, 2020, reveal bipartisan support for increased federal spending on a number of domestic priorities, including education, healthcare, and Social Security. But beyond that, Republicans and Democrats are divided on a range of spending issues, including defense, immigration enforcement, and federal aid to state and local law enforcement.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Immigration, Law Enforcement, Budget, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

40. Republicans, Democrats Split on Increasing US Defense Budget

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: On December 8, the House voted to pass the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), authorizing a total of $740.5 billion in defense appropriations and continuing a trend of defense spending increases. The bill, passed by a margin large enough to override a threatened veto from President Trump, includes pay increases for US servicemembers, mandates the renaming of ten US military bases currently named after Confederates, and has a notable focus on competition with China. The 2020 Chicago Council Survey finds that the US public overall tends to prefer to maintain current levels of defense expenditures. But a plurality of Democrats, younger Americans and the college-educated favor cuts to the US defense budget, while a plurality of Republicans favor expanding it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Public Opinion, Budget, Political Parties, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

41. Public and Opinion Leaders' Views on US-China Trade War

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump Administration has taken an aggressive line on US-China trade issues. Starting with steel and aluminum tariffs in March 2018, the United States has gradually imposed a number of tariffs on various Chinese goods. China responded in turn to each round. Recent negotiations, though initially fruitful, foundered on issues of Chinese subsidies and what US trade representative Robert Lighthizer described as “an erosion in commitments by China.” Now the escalation cycle has resumed. According to surveys conducted in 2018 among foreign policy opinion leaders by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the University of Texas, and the results of the 2018 Chicago Council Survey of the general US public, concerns about a potential trade war between the United States and China were already widespread before this most recent escalation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Public Opinion, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

42. Americans and Russians Are Mostly Disinterested and Disengaged with Each Other

Author:: Brendan Helm, Arik Burakovsky, and Lily Wojtowicz
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The last few years have seen a substantial deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. The international crisis over Ukraine, Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election, and US sanctions against Russia have all contributed to the growing acrimony. Recent surveys conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center reveal that large majorities of both Russians and Americans now view their countries as rivals. But in the midst of heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington, how do regular citizens of each country view one another? A joint project conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the Levada Analytical Center, and The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University shows that despite the perception of rivalry between their countries, Russians’ and Americans’ views on the people of the other country are more favorable. However, the survey results also show that Russians and Americans are not particularly curious about each other, they rarely follow news about one another, and the majority of each group has never met someone from the other. Nonetheless, self-reported interests from each side in arts and sciences suggest that there are non-political paths toward warmer relations.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

43. Americans Favor US-China Trade, Split Over Tariffs

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Over the past 18 months, the United States and China have engaged in a steady escalation of tariffs. Beginning with steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in March 2018, the trade conflict has expanded to cover hundreds of billions of dollars in bilateral trade. Recent rounds of negotiations have made no new progress and have led to both sides escalating further. The most recent US tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect on September 1, covering $112 billion of goods. Beijing has countered with retaliatory tariffs and has halted all agricultural purchases from the United States, a move targeted at already-struggling US farmers. While Americans broadly support engaging in trade with China, they are split along partisan lines on how to engage in that trade. Republicans support raising tariffs on Chinese imports and believe it will help the US economy in the long run, while Democrats oppose doing so and believe it will be harmful.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

44. Rejecting Retreat

Author:: Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The upending of US foreign policy under the Trump administration, the revolt against establishment politicians, and the rise of the progressive wing in US politics has led many foreign policy experts to conclude that Americans want to retreat from the world. Much of Washington and its foreign policy elite believe that “Iraq and other debacles” have left Americans wearied, worried, and inclined toward either America First or retrenchment ideas.1 They believe the American public sees the rules-based international order established after World War II as bankrupt. But that is not what the American public actually thinks. Americans may be searching for a new way to make sense of the world. But the 2019 Chicago Council Survey demonstrates that retreating from the world, abdicating international leadership, and abandoning alliances and global institutions is not what the American public has in mind.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Alliance, Institutions, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

45. Record Number of Americans Say International Trade Is Good for the US Economy

Author:: Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Alexander Hitch
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has embarked on an ambitious and disruptive trade agenda, driven by his belief that the United States has lost “many billions of dollars” to trading partners and that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.”[1] During his term, the president has escalated trade tensions with China; has renegotiated trade agreements with countries such as Mexico, Canada, and South Korea; and has withdrawn US involvement in trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The 2019 Chicago Council Survey finds that though Republicans and Democrats differ on whether President Trump’s strategy is an effective approach to trade policy, the American public is more likely than ever to say that international trade benefits the United States.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economy, and WTO
Political Geography:: Canada, South Korea, North America, Mexico, Global Focus, and United States of America

46. Public Prefers Cooperation and Engagement with China

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Since the Trump administration took office in 2017, it has pursued a more competitive relationship with China on both economic and security fronts. The Trump administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy stated that China “seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region,” and Washington and Beijing have been engaged in an escalating trade war since the United States first imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in March 2018. Just as the high-level US-China relationship has taken a sharp turn towards competition, so too have public perceptions of Sino-American relations: a February 2019 Chicago Council poll found that a majority of Americans describe the United States and China as rivals (63%) rather than partners (32%), a shift that has occurred across partisan lines. However, Americans have not fully closed the door to bilateral cooperation, and most Americans do not see the rise of China as a critical threat to the United States.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

47. Cooperation and Hedging: Comparing US and South Korean Views of China

Author:: Karl Friedhoff, Dina Smeltz, J. James Kim, Kang Chungku, and Scott A. Snyder
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: While Seoul and Washington currently agree on using high-level diplomacy to encourage North Korea to denuclearize, South Korean and US approaches toward China differ and could become a source of friction between the two allies. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has confronted China through tariffs on Chinese imports and identified China as a near-peer adversary. Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has made efforts to end a dispute with China over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and indicated openness to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Public preferences in both the United States and South Korea are not necessarily aligned with their own governments’ policies toward China. Chicago Council and Asan Institute surveys conducted in 2019 find that both South Koreans and Americans see a strengthened US-ROK alliance as an asset in dealing with China, suggesting that Washington and Seoul can afford to strengthen coordination between their policies toward China.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

48. American Public Backs US Military Presence in Japan

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: At the highest level, the relationship between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan has been cordial and at times productive. The two leaders have met often, and in October the United States and Japan signed a trade agreement focused on agriculture and digital trade. However, President Trump’s longstanding skepticism toward US alliances and the coming negotiations over Japanese support for American troops in Japan could strain the relationship. Despite the challenges ahead, Americans remain supportive of the US military presence in Japan and say the US-Japan relationship strengthens US security.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

49. Both Russian and American Publics Sense a Transatlantic Rift

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Lily Wojtowicz
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Building over the last few years, disputes between the United States and Europe over trade, climate change, and nuclear weapons were on full display at the annual Munich Security Conference last month. Russian leaders have tried to exploit these strains between the United States and its allies. In Munich, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov of Russia suggested that the European Union and Russia build a “shared European home.”[1] Sidelining the United States through deepened ties with Europe has long been a strategy of the Kremlin to weaken the West’s united front against Russia’s regional and international aggression.[2] Findings from a new US-Russia binational survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center, reveal that publics in both countries have noticed cracks in the US-EU relationship.[3] While Americans have long expressed support for NATO, a majority say that unity among NATO allies is weakening. At the same time, Russians’ impressions that transatlantic security links are weakening contribute to their sense that the United States is now in a weaker global position.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, Public Opinion, and European Union
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

50. Chicago’s Global Strategy Part II: A Blueprint for Implementation

Author:: Juliana Kerr
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Chicago’s Global Strategy Part II: A Blueprint for Implementation APRIL 1, 2019 By: Juliana Kerr, Director, Global Cities In 2017, a task force of Chicago’s leading business, civic, and cultural leaders came together to outline a global strategy for Chicago that coordinates the broad range of international activities and steers major efforts toward improving the city’s economic well-being and quality of life for all residents. These leaders recognized that Chicago has many global interactions across many sectors and institutions, but they “stop far short of a well-designed, coherent global engagement strategy.” The task force’s report, Chicago’s Global Strategy, laid out the broad vision. To meet it, representatives of more than 60 museums, universities, civic organizations, chambers of commerce, business associations, and other groups came together to identify specific actions they could take to help advance the overall strategy. This report summarizes their findings.
Topic:: International Relations, Cities, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy

Author:: Phil Levy
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Once upon a time, there was centrist, bipartisan support for US leadership in crafting an open global trading system. Over recent decades, though, as trade grew more complex, the share of US workers in manufacturing fell, and China emerged as an economic power, that consensus dissolved. By the 2016 election, both major party presidential candidates opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement central to US economic and foreign policy. Lest this opposition seem to represent a new consensus, it ushered in the recent period of political discord over trade. While some praised aggressive US actions to address trade deficits and national security concerns, others worried about the fraying of the global trading system and international markets lost to retaliatory barriers. This book provides the non-specialist reader with the background to understand the debates about trade. It begins by briefly tracing the history of US support for trade, as well as the shifts in the manufacturing sector that helped inspire calls to “make America great again.” It also considers the particular challenges posed by China’s emergence as a trading power while calling into question popular thinking on the resultant “China Shock” to US manufacturing. The book also offers an accessible guide to many of the esoteric topics that underlie today’s trade debates. It starts with tariffs, but proceeds to tackle issues such as trade deficits, intellectual property rights protection, rules of origin for goods, antidumping procedures, labor and environmental protections, and sovereignty. Finally, the book offers ways to move beyond the impasse that had emerged by 2016. Rather than focusing on a specific agreement such as the updated NAFTA (USMCA), it looks at whether deals should be bilateral or multilateral, and just how transparent negotiations need to be. It divides some particularly contentious issues into those that are easily addressed, those that might be feasible with work, and those that are nonstarters. While most of the work to restore a consensus would be difficult, the rewards would be great. The book concludes with a warning that the penalties for not restoring US leadership on trade could be severe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade Policy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

52. Security in the Age of Cities

Author:: Kristin Ljungkvist
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Security in the Age of Cities APRIL 24, 2019 By: Kristin Ljungkvist, Nonresident Fellow, Global Cities Cities around the world find themselves at the front lines of our most pressing global security issues. Today, terrorism, transnational violence, civil and ethnic unrest, organized crime, and cyber threats all have an urban face. Extremists attack cities to achieve maximum impact and criminals use violence to control territory. Hate crimes, demographic tensions, and lone wolves add to the disturbing trends and high homicide rates manifesting in cities. In conflict zones, cities tend to become the symbolic as well as de facto epicenter of conflicts with humanitarian and criminal spillover effects, such as human displacement and trafficking of people and weapons. Securing our cities is emerging as one of the most important challenges of our time. For an extended historical period, nation-states have held nearly sole responsibility for providing security, and they certainly continue to have the greatest responsibility today. However, city and municipal authorities are increasingly proactive, and in some cases, are becoming security actors in and of themselves. This change brings with it uncertainty around the division of responsibilities between the local, national and international authorities. While local governments play an important role in both national and international security governance processes, it is not always clear what role, function, means and responsibilities local governments have in relation to other levels of government. In some cases, the political structure of nation-state level government impedes the ability to prepare and respond effectively to urban security challenges. Intelligence communities are not set up to communicate easily with municipal forces, and local agencies typically do not have the security clearances they need to stay abreast of transnational threats . In response, cities are creating their own counter-terrorism and security agencies given the problems associated with coordination across levels of governments . Cities are also struggling with the need to strike a balance between safety and security measures on the one hand, and keeping the city open and welcoming on the other. Security concerns have led to increased surveillance and expanded legal and physical capacities . There’s a clear risk for a militarization of urban space.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:: North America

53. Mexicans, Americans Share Positive Views of USMCA Trade Agreement

Author:: Craig Kafura, Jorge Buendía, and Esteban Guzmán Saucedo
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s push to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, along with the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs, has strained an already tense relationship between the United States and Mexico. Despite those tensions, polls conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Buendía y Laredo find broad public agreement on trade on both sides of the border. Majorities of both Mexicans and Americans agree that their economic relationship is important, are concerned about a trade war hurting their local economy, see international trade as having a positive impact on their nation’s economy, and expect the newly-signed US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade to be good for their nation’s economy.
Topic:: Public Opinion, NAFTA, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

54. Addressing China's Rising Influence in Africa

Author:: Michael Tiboris
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Addressing China's Rising Influence in Africa MAY 21, 2019 By: Michael Tiboris, Nonresident Fellow, Global Water Key facts and figures China is now the largest trading partner for the African continent, and China’s Export-Import Bank aims to invest more than $1 trillion in the continent by 2025. In addition, China has now surpassed the United States government in total agriculture R&D funding. China has increased its presence in African development—a trend that will persist because its model is extremely attractive to both China and many African nations. China’s growing contributions to African development should not automatically be feared, but their increased presence should create a recalibration in US approaches to development. Current US National Security Advisor and former Ambassador John Bolton in his announcement of the administration’s Prosper Africa initiative cast China’s presence in Africa as a strategic challenge for the United States. The market opportunities on the African continent are enormous. Consumer expenditure is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2025 and $2.5 trillion by 2030. The World Bank estimates that the African food market alone could be worth $1 trillion by 2030, more than tripling the current $300 million market. China’s ability to directly finance and construct infrastructure projects with fewer conditions is unique and has raised worries in some quarters about the expropriation of natural resources, environmental hazards, labor displacement, unstable debt burdens, and land grabs. In addition, China’s investment strategy leaves notable gaps that the United States, leaning on its expertise, can fill. The most direct and sustainable mechanism for moving people out of poverty is investment in agriculture—in particular, smallholder agriculture. US leadership on global water, food, and nutrition security is essential to catalyze the innovations and development necessary to achieve US foreign policy and development goals on the continent. To maintain its global leadership in this strategically important continent, the United States should consider prioritizing technical assistance for water sustainability and thereby support sanitation and agricultural growth. The United States must also continue to find ways to deepen its relationships with African partners to demonstrate US commitment to building resilience and self-reliance in these communities for the long term. Simultaneously, the United States and its allies should work through international institutions to encourage China to adopt policies that achieve shared global objectives in economic development, security, human welfare, and sustainability.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Banks, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS