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  • Author: Shyam Saran
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for Policy Research, India
  • Abstract: In the next decade, how US-China relations unfold will shape the external environment for countries like India. How does China perceive the Trump presidency?
  • Topic: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Trump
  • Political Geography: China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Geetima Das Krishna, Ankit Bhardwaj
  • Publication Date: 02-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for Policy Research, India
  • Abstract: After three decades of double-digit growth, China is slowing as it is rebalancing its economy from export-driven to less-volatile domestic consumption driven economy. The paper looks at the impact of China slowdown on India through different channels. Even though India is usurping China as the fastest growing major economy in the world, Indian economy being a fifth of the Chinese economy and also less material intensive can hardly substitute for China as a global growth driver. China has emerged as the largest trading partner of India but India’s trade still remains less vulnerable to Chinese slowdown directly as India’s services exports account for as much as 50% of India’s overall exports (merchandise and services). On the other hand, China’s total FDI investment in India has been miniscule $1.2 billion till September 2015 and India’s infrastructure sector, with its massive investment needs, can be the natural destination for Chinese investments. India reaped the indirect benefit of lower commodity prices in terms of narrower CAD, softening inflation, lower interest rate, increased government fiscal bonanza, all of which contributed to greater macro-stability in India. It was also found that a 50bps decline in China’s growth rate is likely to lower India’s growth by 30bp in the short run.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Economic Growth, Regional Integration
  • Political Geography: China, South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Nimmi Kurian
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Centre for Policy Research, India
  • Abstract: China’s One Belt One Road Initiative has virtually been a lightning rod for divisive debate and a polarised narrative since it was announced in 2013. For India, it has been the proverbial elephant in the room, as it awkwardly swings between willful pretence and wishful erasure. The policy brief looks at the clues this initiative could offer on the likely drivers of China’s economic diplomacy in the region. There could be three signals for India to watch out for. A clear pointer is the growing role of domestic determinants in setting the direction and pace of China’s regional economic engagement. Another pointer could be China’s role in shaping and defining Asia’s new institutional financial architecture. Lastly, the initiative could be a signal of how China is likely to engage with the larger questions of benefit sharing, trade-offs and the allocation of risks and burdens in subregional Asia.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Soft Power
  • Political Geography: China, South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Nimmi Kurian
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Centre for Policy Research, India
  • Abstract: China’s growing water thirst lends an urgency to understand China’s resource choices, the possible conditions under which it is likely to exercise these choices and the ripple effects these are likely to have across the borders. While overinterpretation and hysteria has tended to take the place of informed scholarship and media, India’s official narrative has largely tended to downplay many of these concerns. The paper argues that the debate has also unwittingly ended up being a single-issue debate fixated on water diversion, in the process inadvertently diverting attention away from other equally important issues. Can we frame the water debate with China in ways that can create institutional entry points for a whole set of missing issues that are currently invisible to the mainstream policy and research gaze? India and China’s willingness to begin a subregional conversation on regional public goods could pave the way to designing norms of benefit sharing, negotiating trade-offs, and allocating risks and burdens on collective goods and bads in the region.
  • Topic: International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Water, Negotiation
  • Political Geography: China, South Asia, India, Asia