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1. Stolen decades: the unfulfilled expectations of the Belarusian economic miracle

Author:
Aleś Alachnovič and Julia Korosteleva
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The case of the Belarusian economy has puzzled many academic scholars for years. Belarus has often been referred to as a transition outlier, given its relatively fast recovery in 1996 and spectacular growth prior to the global financial crisis without much transformation of its economy. Three decades after gaining its independence, the state control of the economy still remains considerably high. Subsidized financing of state-owned enterprises allowed to preserve production capabilities over the first decade, to achieve some productivity gains in the late 1990s–early 2000s, and to avoid social destabilization. However, with a delay in structural reforms, this economic model, also heavily dependent on the Russian subsidies and foreign debt, has become fatigue, driving the economy into stagnation in the 2010s. The Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 post-presidential political crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022 put further strains on the economy, calling for change. This working paper gives an overview of the Belarusian economic developments before the presidential elections to have a better understanding of how various rigidities of the Belarusian economic model have amplified the detrimental effect of the political unrest for the economy and the Belarusian society overall, and discusses the anticrisis and mid-term economic reforms Belarus will have to undergo.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Economy, Social Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

2. Digitalisation of Poland's post-COVID economy – how to make the best use of the EU Recovery Fund?

Author:
Jan Hagemejer and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this report, we show that the level of digitalisation of the Polish economy as a whole is behind European benchmarks and that it is insufficient. This has two dimensions – one is the overall low digital literacy of Polish society and the low demand for digital services, while the other is the insufficient digitalisation of business activities which stems from inefficient programmes and incentives in this respect. These dimensions overlap – human capital deficiencies reduce the benefits from digitalisation efforts on the part of enterprises while digitalisation itself is performed in an inefficient way. We analyse digitisation in several sectoral dimensions to understand the challenges facing specific segments of the Polish economy. We show that the deficiencies in digitalisation are uneven: small firms are lagging behind large firms, while manufacturing firms use existing digital solutions in inefficient ways, lacking integration and strategic vision. Given the existing empirical evidence, improvements in these areas can positively contribute to the costs of running a business and to the way a business is organised as well as improve the allocative efficiency. Improving the degree of the use of digital technology in manufacturing can contribute to maintaining the cost-competitiveness of the sector while digital process innovations can shift it towards non-price competitiveness. Improvements in the digitisation (and digitalisation) of the services sector will help with consumer outreach and facilitate entering foreign markets, in particular for small firms. Last but not least, in light of the identified list of needed improvements, we comment on the potential use of the EU Recovery Fund which was agreed in July 2020 to mitigate the social and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic in EU MS. Thanks to this earmarked budget, the European Commission (EC) will be able to borrow EUR 750 billion from capital markets and redistribute it among MS as grants and loans between 2021 and 2027.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

3. In search of new opportunities. Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Author:
Agnieszka Kulesa, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz, Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský, and Andrei Yeliseyeu
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
We are pleased to present the report on circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between four research institutions – Warsaw-based CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, CASE Belarus, the Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic), and the Institute of Economic Research, SAS (Slovakia). The partners teamed up to implement the project “CIRCMIGR: Improving circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia”. Additionally, Youth Labour Rights, an NGO based in Belarus, was responsible for launching and maintaining a website addressed to Belarusians interested in working in Poland, Slovakia, or the Czech Republic. The implementation of this project was possible thanks to co-financing from the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration. Circular migration flows between the countries examined in the report were affected by two events that occurred in 2020. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic. The worldwide spread of the coronavirus caused three major shocks – to public health systems, to states’ economies, and to the global financial system. The pandemic also temporarily closed borders and essentially stopped international migration. These measures, together with the border restrictions and lockdown measures which followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, have affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic as well. Surprisingly, in the case of Poland, however, this influence was limited in time and related only to the first months of the pandemic (March-April 2020). In fact, 2020 was the sixth consecutive year since 2014 during which the number of documents issued to Belarusian nationals as part of the simplified system of employing foreign nationals in Poland increased. Longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on circular migration patterns and related policies are yet to be seen, but preliminary observations are presented in the respective chapters. The second event that occurred in 2020 which affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic was the Belarusian presidential election held in August. The announcement of the official results, according to which Alexander Lukashenko could commence his sixth term in office as the president of Belarus, provoked political demonstrations and mass anti-government protests across the country. As a result, officially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Belarusian government closed land border crossings for people wishing to leave the country from 21 December 2020 until further notice. This issue, as it is rather recent and thus difficult to evaluate fully, is just signalled in the report. The report is divided into five main parts. It starts with the executive summary, which discusses the concept of circular migration and synthesises the main findings of the country chapters. The country-specific section includes a chapter concentrated on Belarus, followed by chapters dedicated to the Visegrad Group countries under study – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Each country chapter ends with a set of recommendations addressed to policy makers. Notes on the contributors can be found at the end of the report.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Belarus

4. Our Europe: 15 Years of Poland in the European Union

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Mirosława Marody, Maja Sawicka, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, Jan J. Michałek, Andrzej Halesiak, Stanisława Golinowska, Irena Topińska, Anna Fornalczyk, Richard Woodward, Grzegorz Gorzelak, Andrzej Kwieciński, Katarzyna Zawalińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Anna Malinowska, Wiesława Kozek, Magdalena Kąkol, Maciej Nowicki, Grzegorz Wiśniewski, Andrzej Cylwik, Tomasz Komornicki, Urszula Sztanderska, Jacek Liwiński, Dorota Ilczuk, Anna Karpińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Mateusz Szczurek, Stanisław Gomułka, and Paweł Wojciechowski
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration. This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Energy Policy, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, Social Policy, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

5. The Story of the Open Pension Funds and the Employee Capital Plans in Poland. Will It Succeed This Time?

Author:
Barbara Blaszczyk
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Social Policy, and Capital
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

6. The European Union: State of play and prospects

Author:
Janusz Lewandowski
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski, the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Guidebook: Direction: An Efficient State

Author:
Gvantsa Ichkiti, Hasmik Grigoryan, Agnieszka Kulesa, Salome Kandelaki, and Stanislav Bieliei
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Polish Decentralisation Guidebook aims at presenting in a synthetic way the experience of Poland regarding the re-introduction of local government and the decentralisation process since 1989. Its main goal is to provide representatives of central and regional authorities, experts, and representatives of opinion-forming circles in Armenia and Georgia with relevant information and knowledge. The idea of the authors of this Guidebook was to facilitate mutual learning between the countries, the exchange of good practices, and lessons learned. The territorial division of Armenia was established in 1995. Now the country has two levels of administrative division – regions and communities – and the local self-government is exercised only on the level of communities. In the case of Georgia, administrative reform aimed at introducing local government started in 1997. Currently, self-government in Georgia is exercised on just one level – in municipalities (including self-governing cities and self-governing communities). Poland’s experience, in which local government units are established on all three levels of territorial division, might be useful to Armenia and Georgia, if they wish to further reform their territorial administration and pursue decentralisation. This Guidebook is comprised of four main parts. The first part is devoted to the presentation of the Polish experience in five selected areas: Empowerment of local communities Financing of local government units Providing public services Absorption of external funds by local governments Crisis responses The second part is dedicated to the presentation and analysis of needs and main blocking points in decentralisation in Armenia, while the third one concentrates on Georgia. Both of them are structured around the five above-listed areas. The last but very most important section of this Guidebook provides a set of recommendations for Armenia and Georgia based on the Polish experience in introducing local government and decentralisation. The country-specific sections of this Guidebook were prepared mainly on the basis of the results of desk research. This included reviewing the existing literature, relevant state strategies and action plans as well as reports developed by local and international organisations. Key legal acts were also reviewed. In addition, interviews with representatives of local municipalities and other stakeholders were carried out in Armenia and Georgia. This Guidebook was developed as part of the project called ‘Direction: an efficient state. Polish experiences of decentralisation and modernisation, lessons learned for Armenia and Georgia’ co-funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. It is the joint work of three partner institutions: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research based in Warsaw, the Tbilisi-based Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP), and the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation (ACGRC) from Yerevan.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Governance, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, and Armenia

8. Informal employment and wages in Poland

Author:
Jacek Liwiński
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics. Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Employment, Social Policy, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

9. Why do we need self-employed persons? Some economic reflections, mainly tax related ones

Author:
Adam Adamczyk, Leszek Morawski, and Jarek Neneman
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
For many years, we have been hearing about the need for innovation and entrepreneurship. Successive Polish government declare their support for entrepreneurs and expand the catalog of privileges, mainly related to taxes and mandatory contributions. Not infrequently, in these discussions the self-employed are equated with entrepreneurs. In this work, we will seek an answer to the questions: Who, then, are the self-employed? Are they really entrepreneurs? Should we support their activities? And finally the fundamental question: What does the economy get from the self-employed? In this work we point out that the differences in rates of self-employment between countries may result from differences in taxation on the labor provided by self-employed and salaried workers. In the main part of the work, taking advantage of the potential of the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model, we show that in Europe there is no single model of taxation of work conducted as one’s own business. In the majority of the tax-contribution systems we examined, the profitability of employment or self-employment changes along with changes in income. In light of the regressivity of the burdens on the self-employed, as a rule it begins to be profitable only above a certain income level. In the first part of the work we define the self-employed as those who run a business, and later we distinguish within this group entrepreneurs, meaning those who take on risk and create innovations. Discussing the advantages and disadvantages of self-employment from the point of view of the self employed and the employer, we point out that the benefits – including systemic (tax and contribution) benefits, outweigh the disadvantages. We also discuss in more detail the imposition of income tax on the self-employed. In the second part we present changes in the value of self-employment over the last 25 years. Here we use data from the World Bank and certain data points from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). They allow us to observe how the relationship between the self-employed and the economy is changing: The significance of services provided for other businesses is growing. Additionally, we can see that the significance of self-employment is falling. In Poland the level of (non-agricultural) self-employment is low. The dynamics of the rate of self employment indicate that the influence of legal regulations on the scale of self-employment is secondary. It seems that in this case, technological and demographic factors are much more significant.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Employment, Business, Social Policy, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

10. What’s next for healthcare in Poland: diagnosis and prognosis

Author:
Alicja Domagała, Christoph Sowada, Krzysztof Kuszewski, Marzena Tambor, and Stanisława Golinowska
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The health protection system is the object of constant pressures and difficulties in mitigating them, and even more so eliminating or at least reducing them. Changes are undertaken under the influence of a one-sided political assessment, the interests of various groups of participants or the protests of successive groups of medical staff. There is no professional and fully documented diagnosis of the system, made by independent experts, which could serve as the basis for a comprehensive health protection reform plan, rather than individual, incidental changes that disrupt the system’s already very fragile balance. A well thought-out reform, properly distributed over time, so that at no point does it cause negative health effects. A reform agreed among stake-holders and adopted with understanding of the need for changes, so that it is supported by society. A reform for which there will be funds, institutions and engaged professionals – leaders in health protection. A reform that won’t be criticized or changed when the government changes. Such a reform is waiting to be presented and debated. We begin this process by pointing out and presenting the system’s main problems. At the top of the list of issues that must be taken up urgently we place the problem of insufficient resources, but associated with other activities that are essential to achieve higher effectiveness in accomplishing health goals. There is no single miraculous way of balancing and fixing the functioning of the health protection system. This requires both greater financing, qualitatively and quantitatively appropriate staffing, and good institutions. Financial resources are a necessary condition but not a sufficient one – if there is no staff or appropriate institutions, and these are shaped over years. In this publication we present four subjects, corresponding to that list of the main issues that must be addressed urgently. We begin with the problem of good governance, meaning achieving a decisive improvement in institutional solutions in health protection. Next we take up the problem of the need for growth in financial outlays, with judicious public and individual responsibility. We strongly accent the need for development in Poland of medical and support staff, presenting the problems of neglect and the deep shortage of professionals, which is currently paralyzing the health service. The final text, though no less important in the group of priority problems in health protection, concerns public health and demands that it be properly valued by treating care for the health of the population as an investment in human capital with a measurable and significant rate of return.
Topic:
Demographics, Health, Labor Issues, Governance, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

11. Thinking about pension systems for the 21st century: A few remarks based on the Polish example

Author:
Marek Gora
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The end of 2018 will mark the 20th anniversary of the introduction of Poland’s current pension system. It has been subjected to constant modifications, in general dictated by either ideological or ad hoc goals, but it has resisted destruction, and in essence is working as it was designed. The need for its introduction, misleadingly called a reform, was dictated by a long-term shift in the age structure of the population. In essence, the earlier system was replaced by the current one. The essence of this switch is a shift from the quasi-tax financing suited to the population structure by age of the past, to quasi-savings financing suited to the structure in the 21st century. This text is not an overview of the 20-year history of the current system; it is a critical examination of the functioning of Poland’s pension system against the backdrop of the universal challenges that pension systems are facing in the 21st century. The text barely touches on many fundamental questions. A full discussion of them would require a longer discourse, for which there is no space here. The purpose of introducing the current system was to balance the interests of the working generation and the generation of retirees. The previous system worked only for the interests of retirees, while those of the working generation, expressed in the level of its net income, was treated as an afterthought. This kind of system could operate in the 20th century. But in the 21st, it turned out to be not so much immediately impossible, as socially harmful. A change of system was thus essential. The current system is now quite well suited to the current population structure. The biggest problem in its functioning is citizens’ negligible awareness of how it is actually structured and what that implies – both on the macro level and on the level of individual behaviors. Pension issues are counterintuitive. This results both from their combination of macro- and microeconomic issues and from the fact that their time horizon exceeds any other undertaking. For a pension system to work well, it has to be understood by its participants; meanwhile, pension education practically does not exist. What’s worse, the public debate concerning pensions tends to frighten people rather than helping them. Instead of knowledge, there are chaotic assumptions, often far removed from reality. They are adopted as axiomatic, or as a result of inertia in thinking, or unrealistic expectations. In the first case, the current system is perceived as if it were the previous one. Meanwhile, in reality they are fundamental opposites. In the second case, people expect that the system will miraculously multiply the funds available for pensions. But in reality each system can only divide up what has been created. Discussions partly concern side issues, partly consist of misunderstandings and partly are derivations of general views. Much harm was done by the discussion on changing the proportions of the division of contributions in the universal system (the so-called OFE discussion). Debate on pension questions requires that the issues be laid out in an orderly fashion; we need a critical view of basic concepts and how they are understood. Without that there is no chance to solve the problems of pensions systems, or even to understand what they’re about.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Finance, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

12. Social harmonization and labor market performance in Europe

Author:
Katarzyna Mirecka and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The paper aims to assess the impact of selected elements of social harmonization on labor market performance in the European Union among two groups of workers—the total working population and the elderly. The aim is to examine whether upward changes in labor taxes affect employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates in the European Union. The descriptive empirical evidence shows that the level of labor taxation varies significantly across European countries and the introduced changes might affect national markets differently. The Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data regression shows that an increase in the tax wedge, as an element of a social harmonization process, has a very weak impact on labor market performance in the European Union. The impact is statistically significant and negative only for the elderly (i.e. the population aged 50+). Empirical analysis suggests that upward social convergence might negatively affect the employment of the most disfavored groups in the labor market, such as the elderly. It suggests that social harmonization focused on reducing the tax wedge would have favorable effects on labor market performance, especially among the most disadvantaged groups. This report was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Tax Systems, and Social Security
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

13. Female Brain Drain in Poland and Germany: New Perspectives for Research

Author:
Karolina Beaumont, Matthias Kullas, Matthias Dauner, Izabela Styczynska, and Paul Lirette
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report provides an analysis of the issues related to female brain drain between Poland and Germany in the years 1989-2015: female and male migration patterns during specific time periods, the challenges of female migration, the emigration of highly-skilled individuals in Poland and Germany, as well as the issues regarding brain drain from a gender perspective. Global female migration is a topic frequently studied in academic literature; however, the topic of female brain drain is one that has long been ignored by academic research. This gap in research on female brain drain is closely related to a significant lack of relevant quantitative data, and, consequently, has led to gaps in policymaking. The aim of this report is to gather all available information on female brain drain and its impact on labour markets, gender equality, female migration, and human capital, while noting the gaps in data and policymaking. A further objective of this report is to highlight the issues that are important for policymaking, as well as to propose adequate polic recommendations. The report aims to provide a current and comprehensive analysis of female brain drain in Poland and in Germany – two neighbouring countries, with complex histories of population migration – as well as an analysis of the economic and societal consequences of this phenomenon for both countries. The publication was prepared within the project “Brain drain/brain gain: Polish-German challenges and perspectives - Focus on the gender aspects of labour migration from 1989” with financial support from the Polish-German Foundation for Science and The Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation.
Topic:
Demographics, Education, Gender Issues, Migration, Labor Issues, Brain Drain, Women, Inequality, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Germany, and European Union

14. Pension reform in Belarus in the shadow of Social Europe: vulnerability issues of people aged 50+ and points for improvement

Author:
Sierž Naŭrodski
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The policy brief by Sierž Naŭrodski presents a review of potential effects of parametric pension reform in Belarus starting in 2017 for the population aged 50 and more in terms of unemployment, alcohol consumption, and poverty. It concludes that, despite the fact that raising the retirement age is overdue in Belarus to address demographic challenges, it may have a negative impact on the quality of life of people close to retirement age as well as a poorer GDP effect within current conditions on the labor market in Belarus. The paper presents a set of public policy improvement directions in Belarus, which could help mitigating vulnerability of the group 50+ during the pension reform.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

15. Social harmonization in the eyes of Polish stakeholders – in search of consensus

Author:
Karolina Beaumont, Katarzyna Mirecka, and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Aspects of labor mobility and discrepancies in social benefits schemes in Member States became an urgent matter to address. Revision of the Posting of Workers Directive, the European Pillar of Social Rights and the European Mobility Package were aimed at introducing more harmonization within the EU countries. However, the EU propositions faced a strong resistance from some groups of stakeholders and Member States. Moreover, the debate has been evolving quickly given recent events such as the economic and migration crises and Brexit. CASE held a forum with various Polish stakeholders, where CASE experts gathered views on the future of social situation in the EU. They are all summarized in this Policy Brief. Main policy recommendations emphasize that proposed legislation is important for Poland, however it still needs more debate, since under current form certain policies might be harmful for many EU Member States. This policy brief was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

16. The Influence of Economic Migration on the Polish Economy

Author:
Agata Górny, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, and Joanna Tyrowicz
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the ongoing public debate on economic migration to Poland, emotional statements, or those without any basis in data, often have the upper hand. But in order to speak rationally about Poland as a destination country for immigrants, it is necessary to fully understand the conditions – and in particular the weaknesses – of the Polish labor market. It’s also worth becoming aware of the scale of the processes being discussed. In the 149th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings, Joanna Tyrowicz analyzes whether immigration could be a significant labor market driver in Poland. Paweł Kaczmarczyk and Agata Górny discuss the structural consequences of the inflow of Ukrainian workers to the Polish labor market.
Topic:
Markets, Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

17. The Catalan economy: Crisis, recovery and policy challenges

Author:
Xavier Cuadras-Morató
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Catalonia is one of the richest regions in Spain. Until the outbreak of the international financial and economic crisis in 2008, it enjoyed a phenomenal economic boom – which then turned into a very severe depression, from which the region began to exit only in 2014. Consolidating the recovery and making the economy more competitive and resilient, and less volatile, are some of the key challenges of economic policy in Catalonia. Also, to improve the region’s social cohesion, policymakers should make sure that economic prosperity is more widely shared, and transform it into an effective tool for social progress.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, Trade, and Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, Catalonia, and European Union

18. The impact of pension system reform on projected old-age income: the case of Poland

Author:
Elena Jarocinska and Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper analyses the distributional effects of the Polish old-age pension reform introduced in 1999. Following a benchmark Mincer earnings equation, and using a newly developed microsimulation model we project future pension benefits for males born in years 1969–1979. We find that inequality of predicted first pension benefits measured by the Gini coefficient increases from 0.119 to 0.165 for cohorts of men retiring between 2036 and 2046. The observed increased inequality of pension benefits is due to the decreasing share of initial capital that is based on a more generous DB formula in the total accumulated pension capital. At the same time, inequality in replacements rates decreases due to a stronger link between contributions paid through the entire working life and pension benefits.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Labor Issues, Inequality, Social Policy, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

19. The Collaborative Economy in Poland and Europe: A Tool for Boosting Female Employment?

Author:
Karolina Beaumont
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The collaborative economy is a relatively new economic approach based on peer-to-peer transactions. It includes the shared creation, production and consumption of goods and services accessible for all through online platforms and smartphone applications. It is a burgeoning business model that is experiencing increased interest in all European countries. Statistics show that Poland already has an above-average number of women who are interested in self-employment. Furthermore, formal female employment in Poland is quite low by European standards. This situation implies great potential for the development of the participation of women in the collaborative economy. The paper “The Collaborative Economy in Poland and Europe: A Tool for Boosting Female Employment?” by Karolina Beaumont discusses the challenges of the collaborative economy as a system stimulating female social and economic empowerment and assesses the opportunities offered by the collaborative economy in increasing the female labour participation rate amongst Polish women.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Social Policy, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

20. The impact of living and working longer on pension income in five European countries: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland

Author:
Andres Võrk, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Elena Jarocinska, Niku Määttänen, Robert Gál, and Theo Nijman
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Life expectancies are rapidly increasing and uncertain in all countries in Europe. To keep pension systems affordable, policy reforms are to be implemented which will encourage individuals to work longer. In this paper we analyze the impact of working and living longer on pension incomes in five European countries and assess the impact of these policy reforms on the financial well-being of the elderly. The paper shows the diversity of the policy measures taken in these countries. Furthermore, we analyze the financial incentives for working longer and postponing claiming pension benefits and we assess the attractiveness of these options. Lastly, we study how increases in life expectancies and survival probabilities affect pension incomes.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Netherlands, and European Union

21. Future scenarios for the development of the European labour force

Author:
Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The future size and quality of the European labour force are important production factors for future economic growth in the region. The performance of many systems such as social security and health depends on the population of future potential tax payers. Older workers are an important and increasing share of the employment in Europe. Due to lower fertility and longer life expectancy, today, a larger than ever share of the population is over 50. Eurostat projections show that the share of people between the ages of 50 and 74 in the population aged 20-74 will increase in the EU27 countries from the current 40 per cent to 47 per cent in 2050. However, countries differ in terms of elderly activity. Existing studies show that this is related to various factors, including labour market institutions. As demographic ageing is expected to continue in the future, it is important to know more about these factors in order to recommend policies that could be efficient for the development of future labour markets and the economy as a whole. The aim of the described part of the project was to assess the impact of ageing on the labour market, especially on the structure of the labour force and labour productivity. We looked at this from various angles. First, we examined it via the determinants of the transition from work to retirement (see: Riedel and Hofer, 2013) with a broader analysis of non-labour market activities at older ages (Styczyńska et al., 2013). Then, we tried to answer the question about how individual productivity changes with age in different countries and if lifelong learning can contribute to higher labour productivity in the future (Ruzik-Sierdzińska et al., 2013). Finally, we looked at the demand for labour in the perspective of ageing societies, i.e. at employers' policies, attitudes and behaviours towards older workers and retirement (van Dalen et al., 2013).
Topic:
Demographics, Markets, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and European Union

22. Cost and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries

Author:
Luca Barbone and Matthias Luecke
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Migration from Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries has only become a large and important phenomenon over the last twenty years. At its heart, labour migration reflects entrepreneurial decisions by individuals and families looking to improve their lives while facing complex challenges and opportunities. In the past, the language of "migration management" was sometimes used to suggest that migrants and migration needed to be “managed” to achieve government objectives. By contrast, in adopting a migrant-centered perspective, our project aimed to understand, first, EaP migrants’ incentives and the effects of migration on migrants and their families, on non-migrants in the country of origin, and on residents of the destination country. Second, we investigated how labour migration is shaped by and interacts with a wide range of government policies and which policy interventions can enhance the benefits of migration for the affected groups.
Topic:
Demographics, Markets, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Innovation, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and European Union

23. Labour Migration from the Eastern Partnership Countries: Evolution and Policy Options for Better Outcomes

Author:
Luca Barbone, Matthias Luecke, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Partnerships, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

24. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Ukraine

Author:
Hannah Vakhitova and Tom Coupe
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the number of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Partnerships, Social Policy, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

25. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Moldova

Author:
Georgeta Mincu and Vasile Cantarji
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This Report is one of six studies in the first phase of the EU project on “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries.” It aims to provide an informed view on the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Moldova. Since Moldova’s Declaration of Independence in 1990, migration has transformed the country in ways that were impossible to predict. With over a quarter of its labour force now working abroad (a full ten percent of its population), Moldova has become the epitome of a migration-dependent country, with all the costs and benefits associated with this definition. Remittances are as high as one-third of national income, and have helped the country raise its living standards and fuel investment in housing and small businesses. Yet there have also been costs to the large migratory flows, ranging from effects on the macroeconomy to the disruption of social life. All in all, migration has been good for Moldova. This complex socio-economic phenomenon now appears to have stabilized. Further gains for Moldova and its partner countries could be achieved when new agreements are implemented and the institutions dealing with the planning of migration and protection of migrants are strengthened.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe

26. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Georgia

Author:
Lasha Labadze
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This study provides an analysis of the costs and benefits of emigration for Georgia, with an emphasis on emigration to the EU. In the concluding section we dwell on the consequences of a possible liberalization of EU migration policies with regard to Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, and how such a policy change would affect the flow and composition of migration from Georgia to the EU. The study estimates the costs and benefits of migration through the prism of recent economics developments in Georgia and in particular the sweeping liberalization reforms of recent years. While Georgia remains a poor country, its geopolitical position as a Western outpost in the Caucasus and Central Asian region, its role as a key trade and transportation hub, the superior quality of its bureaucracy, lack of corruption, etc., provide a very different context for migration processes, turning migration into a circular phenomenon, a major factor in modernizing the Georgian economy, society, and politics. The EU should give due consideration to this phenomenon as it (re)considers its policy on migration with regard to Georgia and, potentially, other EaP countries.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

27. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Belarus

Author:
Alaksei Kazlou and Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

28. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Azerbaijan

Author:
Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This Report is one of the six studies in the first phase of the EU project on the “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries”. It aims at providing an informed view of the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Azerbaijan. The Report is comprised of 7 Chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 provide a discussion of relevant developments in the economy and labour market in the period since independence, with emphasis on developments over the last ten years or so. Chapter 3 provides a detailed discussion of trends in migration, and discusses the labour migration profile. Chapter 4 analyses remittances and their impact on income, investment and consumption. Chapter 5 provides a discussion of the available evidence on the costs and benefits of labour migration, emphasising the economic, social and demographic costs and consequences. Chapter 6 discusses current migration policies and institutions, while Chapter 7 discusses various factors that may be useful in forecasting key migration trends in the future.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Azerbaijan

29. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Armenia

Author:
Gagik Makaryan and Mihran Galstyan
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity. Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Armenia

30. Cost and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries

Author:
Luca Barbone and Matthias Luecke
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Migration from Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries has only become a large and important phenomenon over the last twenty years. At its heart, labour migration reflects entrepreneurial decisions by individuals and families looking to improve their lives while facing complex challenges and opportunities. In the past, the language of "migration management" was sometimes used to suggest that migrants and migration needed to be “managed” to achieve government objectives. By contrast, in adopting a migrant-centered perspective, our project aimed to understand, first, EaP migrants’ incentives and the effects of migration on migrants and their families, on non-migrants in the country of origin, and on residents of the destination country. Second, we investigated how labour migration is shaped by and interacts with a wide range of government policies and which policy interventions can enhance the benefits of migration for the affected groups.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe