Search

Begin New Search Topic Financial Crisis Political Geography Europe Publishing Institution Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE

1. Potential impact of financial innovation on financial services and monetary policy

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The recent wave of financial innovation, particularly innovation related to the application of information and communication technologies, poses a serious challenge to the financial industry’s business model in both its banking and non-banking components. It has already revolutionised financial services and, most likely, will continue to do so in the future. If not responded to adequately and timely by regulators, it may create new risks to financial stability, as occurred before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. However, financial innovation will not seriously affect the process of monetary policymaking and is unlikely to undermine the ability of central banks to perform their price stability mission.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

2. Stabilization Policies and Structural Developments: Poland and the Crises of 1929 and 2008

Author:
Zbigniew Polański
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper contrasts the impact of the 1929 and 2008 world crises on the Polish economy. Her much better performance during the recent crisis can be explained by two groups of factors: first, by very different stabilization policies and second, by distinct structural developments (resulting both from authorities' structural policies and spontaneous processes). It is emphasized that several factors responsible for Poland's superior performance during the 2008 crisis also contributed to her economic success vis-à-vis other European Union countries.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economic structure, Economic Growth, Global Financial Crisis, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

3. Domestic Cycles, Financial Cycles, and Policies. What Has Gone Wrong?

Author:
Daniel Daianu
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The financial crisis and its ensuing effects have brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles and of policies which fuel or mitigate crises. Cognitive and operational models in economics and business are questioned. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized world. Central banks are over-burdened. This makes central bankers’ lives much more complicated and obfuscates the boundaries between monetary policy and fiscal policy, especially when financial stability gets to center stage. New systemic risks show up in capital markets. The eurozone has escaped collapse owing to the European Central Bank’s extraordinary operations and large macro-imbalance corrections in its periphery, but major threats persist. This paper focuses on economic cycles and policies in an international (European) context. Attention is paid to linkages between domestic cycles and the European financial cycle, drivers of financial cycles, finance deregulation and systemic risks, ultra-low interest rates, the international policy regime, and global stability. The experience of European emerging economies is taken into account.
Topic:
Debt, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economies, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

4. Fiscal Sustainability: Conceptual, Institutional, and Policy Issues

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
'Since 2008, the world economy has been facing the consequences of the global financial crisis. As a result, many economic policy paradigms have been revised, and this process is far from complete. The policy area, which needs a fundamental rethinking (especially in advanced economies), relates to the role of public finance and fiscal policy in ensuring economic growth and financial stability. The primary task will be to develop a new analytical approach and detailed indicators, which are necessary to provide a correct diagnosis and effective recommendations.' What are the “safe” levels of budget deficit and public debt during “normal” or “good” times? Is there a single norm of fiscal safety?
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Finance, Global Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and Global Markets

5. Change in Economic Policy Paradigm: Privatization and State Capture in Poland

Author:
Piotr Kozarzewski and Maciej Bałtowski
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Piotr Kozarzewski and Maciej Bałtowski analyse the causes and manifestations of Poland’s recent shift in economic policy towards a more active role of the state, and use privatization policy as an example. The authors examine the effects of the privatization policy and point to a large unfinished agenda in ownership transformation that has had an adverse impact on the institutional setup of the Polish state, creating grounds for rent seeking and cronyism, which, in turn, impede the pace of privatization. They find out that it is the increasing capture of the state by rent-seeking groups, and not, contrary to popular opinion, the global financial crisis, that most contributes to the growing statist trends of Poland’s economic policy. The publication is a part of a CASE Working Papers series.
Topic:
Privatization, Financial Crisis, Reform, State, Economic Policy, Institutions, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

6. Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Latvia

7. On Competition in the Banking Sector in Poland and Europe Before and During the Crisis

Author:
Małgorzata Pawłowska
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the past decades, the banking sector has come to be known in literature as the banking industry as it was geared to increasing profits, banks were growing, and banking products developed dynamically. It was believed that competition in the banking sector makes banks more efficient and stimulates financial innovation opening new markets. The financial crisis of 2007–2008 has sparked the interest of researchers and politicians in competition in the banking sector and its impact on the stability of the financial sector and overall economic growth. However, researchers cannot agree whether more competition improves or hinders stability. The paper is comprised of three sections and a summary. The first section discusses the concept of competition in the banking sector as well as measures of competition. The second section is a review of literature on competition in the banking sector and its determinants. The third section presents the results of research on competition in the EU, including my own research as well as other research. The paper concludes with a short summary. This publication was presented by Małgorzata Pawłowska during the 134th mBank-CASE Seminar "The global financial crisis: changes in competition in the banking sector in Europe, the role of regulation and intervention by governments and central banks".
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Finance, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, and Banks
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

8. Forecasting Financial Stress and the Economic Sensitivity in CEE Countries

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski and Maciej Krzak
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, and Czech Republic

9. Will Europe Fall into a Japanese-Style Stagnation Trap?

Author:
Peter Harrold
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Can Europe avoid falling in to a Japanese-style stagnation trap? In this type of trap, we see a repeated cycle of a financial crisis leading to a fiscal crisis, leading to a decline in consumer and investor confidence, and a resulting fall in demand. The decline in growth that inevitably follows simply causes the cycle to repeat itself. In theory, this should lead to improved competitiveness, but in Japan the forces of decline outweighed any boost in export demand. This E-brief is based on Peter Harrold’s presentation at the CASE 2011 International Conference on "Europe 2000: Exploring the Future of European Integration" held on November 18-19, 2011.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Policy, Exports, Macroeconomics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

10. The Failed Political Economy of the Euro Crisis

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The euro crisis has been extensively discussed in terms of economics, finance, political intrigues, and European Institutions, but a key aspect—the political economy of the crisis—has received little attention. Politicians and social scientists from emerging economies, especially Eastern Europe, look with amazement at this oversight.
Topic:
Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

11. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Determinants of the Eurozone Crisis and its Resolution

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Unlike the crisis years of 2007-2009 (when the insolvency of large banks was a major problem), the current round of the global financial crisis has fiscal origins. Almost all developed countries suffer from an excessive public debt burden that has been built up over the last two decades or more. The financial crisis caused a further deterioration of government accounts as a result of ill-tailored countercyclical fiscal response and, in some cases, a costly financial sector rescue. All excessively indebted countries must conduct fiscal adjustment, even if this involves economic and political costs in terms of lower output and higher unemployment. Central banks can reduce these costs through accommodative monetary policies but without compromising their anti-inflationary missions and institutional independence. The ECB is additionally constrained by its institutional status which is based on a delicate cross-country political consensus. Excessive ECB involvement in quasi-fiscal rescue operations can undermine this consensus and lead to a disintegration of the Eurozone. There are also strong arguments in favor of strengthening fiscal and banking integration within the EU, especially the fiscal discipline mechanism at national levels, and building the EU rescue capacity in respect to sovereigns and banks based on strong policy conditionality.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, European Union, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Europe

12. Emerging from Crisis: the Mediterranean Neighborhood

Author:
Leonor Coutinho
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The financial crisis engulfed the entire world economy, but the impact was uneven across many regions and countries. Due to a lower degree of financial integration, many developing countries seem to have been far less affected. This apparent resilience has been observed among several of the EU's Mediterranean (MED) neighborhood countries. However, the region's underdeveloped financial markets may yet prove to be a long-term economic curse."
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Financial Crisis, European Union, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

13. Fiscal Consolidation in the EU's New Member States

Author:
Daniel Daianu
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The global financial crisis has triggered exceptional responses in the Euro zone and the U.S. A similar policy thrust should apply to the use of EU funds in the New Member States (NMS) of Central and Eastern Europe. The stakes are too high for vacillating. The bottom line is this: more capital has to flow into NMSs in order to fund the production of capital goods during a time when national budgets are extremely strained. This period may last for years, but inaction may lead to future political and economic instability in the region."
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Reform, European Union, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

14. The Battle Over Private Pensions

Author:
Luca Barbone
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Funded, compulsory pension funds are under attack in Europe and beyond. But are recent policy actions likely to improve the lot of future pensioners, or will they turn out to be short-term politically-motivated fixes that ultimately make life harder?"
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Social Policy, and Pension
Political Geography:
Europe

15. Macroeconomic Surveillance Within the EU

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The new European Union (EU) economic governance package released by the European Commission on September 29, 2010 includes two major components, i.e., changes and amendments to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and new regulation on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances within the EU and European Monetary Union (EMU). While the first piece offers a certain improvement in the EU fiscal surveillance rules the second one looks deeply flawed and operationally unenforceable.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, and European Monetary Union
Political Geography:
Europe