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152. Global Immunization and Gavi: Five Priorities for the Next Five Years
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman, Cordelia Kenney, and Janeen Madan Keller
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Child vaccination remains among the most cost-effective uses of public and aid monies.[1] In a highly contested funding environment where priorities must be set for the allocation of scarce concessional resources, investment in expanding the availability and coverage of cost-effective vaccination must come at the top of the list. Gavi’s mission—saving children’s lives and protecting people’s health by increasing equitable use of vaccines—remains highly relevant. Gavi and its partners have made enormous progress towards increasing equity in the introduction of vaccines; children living in the lowest-income countries now have access to the same set of vaccines as those living in high-income countries. Gavi and partners have also contributed to increased coverage; immunization rates are higher in Burundi and Rwanda, for example, than in many places in the United States and Europe. Yet the effects of under-immunization anywhere can have global implications everywhere, as recent outbreaks illustrate. New or dormant threats are also a new reality—newly vaccine-preventable diseases like Ebola or virulent flu strains can spread swiftly and lethally in an interconnected world.
- Topic:
- Health, Public Health, Vaccine, and Immunization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
153. Digital Governance: Is Krishna a Glimpse of the Future?
- Author:
- Arshi Aadil, Alan Gelb, Anurodh Giri, and Kyle Navis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The state of Andhra Pradesh is recognized as a leader in using technology to improve the delivery of public services, programs and subsidies. Many of its innovations were piloted in Krishna District, which has been visited by development agencies and delegations from many countries. This paper reports on research to better understand the functioning and effectiveness of its reforms to strengthen state capacity by digitalizing service delivery. Against the wider backdrop of the use of Aadhaar in India, it summarizes Andhra’s reforms, which go beyond those of most other jurisdictions in the measures taken to strengthen accountability, offer choice of service provider, and incorporate feedback loops using the vast amount of data generated by a real-time digital service system as well as beneficiary responses. It reports the results from surveys of beneficiaries who receive food rations through the Public Distribution System (PDS) and/or pensions, and on the response of landowners and tenant farmers to the digitization of land records, another important program. The results suggest strong support for the digitalization of these programs. The way in which the reforms have been implemented has indeed led to substantial improvements in delivery (as seen by beneficiaries) as well as, probably, significant fiscal savings. Is this case, then, a model for other Indian states and for other countries? Perhaps yes from a technology perspective; there are many lessons that apply to a wide range of programs and services and that others can usefully draw on. The picture is more complex from a political economy perspective, as suggested by some of the particular features of Andhra.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Reform, and Digitization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
154. Transforming the Institutional Landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa: Considerations for Leveraging Africa’s Research Capacity to Achieve Socioeconomic Development
- Author:
- Alex Ezeh and Jessie Lu
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In order to achieve sustainable development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), African institutions must be the leading experts on and primary providers of research solutions to local problems. Despite years of investment in capacity building, SSA lags behind every other region in terms of research outputs and government investments, and new models for building institutional capacity are needed. Through interviews with African institutional leaders and development partners working in SSA, this study finds that funding inefficiencies lead to key challenges within institutions’ governance and management structures, financial systems, talent management processes, leadership and institutional vision capacities, and peer support networks, all of which obstruct the ability of African institutions to become impactful and sustainable drivers of development outcomes in the region. We present for consideration three possible innovative models that can facilitate the emergence of strong Africa-based, Africa-led institutions: a multi-stakeholder funding platform, an integrator organization model, and a scale model.
- Topic:
- Development, Research, Sustainability, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
155. Creating Opportunities for Rohingya Refugees and Hosts Through Forest Landscape Restoration
- Author:
- Heather Tallis, Cindy Huang, John Herbohn, Karen Holl, Sharif A. Mukul, and Kam Morshed
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Rohingya refugees began arriving in Bangladesh in August 2017, fleeing atrocities deemed serious crimes under international law by United Nations investigators. Over 740,000 new refugees have settled in two camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Chittagong: Kutupalong-Bulukhali and Naypara-Leda. The number of Rohingya in Cox’s Bazar now stands at around one million, comprising about 30 percent of the population. Kutupalong-Bulukhali is now the largest refugee camp in the world. The influx of Rohingya into Cox’s Bazar has exacerbated deforestation, underdevelopment, and climate vulnerability. Combined, these factors create an urgent need for new strategies and resources to address the increasing stress placed on the environment, and the consequences of this stress for refugee and host communities.
- Topic:
- Environment, Genocide, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, and Forest
- Political Geography:
- Myanmar
156. Tackling the Triple Transition in Global Health Procurement
- Author:
- Rachel Silverman, Janeen Madan Keller, Amanda Glassman, and Kalipso Chalkidou
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- There have been impressive gains in global health over the past 20 years, with millions of lives saved through expanded access to essential medicines and other health products. Major international initiatives backed by billions of dollars in development assistance have brought new drugs, diagnostics, and other innovations to the fight against HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and other scourges. But behind these successes is an unacceptable reality: in many low- and middle-income countries, lifesaving health products are either unavailable or beyond the reach of the people who need them most. While each country’s context is unique, a reliable, affordable, and high-quality supply of health products is a vital necessity for any health system. In its absence, lasting health gains will remain elusive. Access to medicines, diagnostics, devices, and equipment is driven in large part by the efficiency of their procurement. Procurement is, therefore, central to the efforts of low- and middle-income countries to improve health, meet the Sustainable Development Goals, and achieve universal health coverage. Health product purchasing in low- and lower-middle-income countries already makes up a sizeable share of overall health spending; in fact, in just a subset of these countries, spending on health products totals an estimated $50 billion per year.[1] Procurement is not only essential to the missions of global health entities like the Global Fund, Gavi, UNICEF, UNFPA, and PEPFAR, but it also represents big money. In the case of the Global Fund, health product procurement accounts for $2 billion per year,[2] or almost half of its 2017 disbursements.[3] Yet despite its importance, procurement is an underappreciated health system function. Today’s procurement systems are hobbled by inefficiencies that leave some of the poorest countries paying some of the highest drug prices in the world.
- Topic:
- Health, Public Health, Transition, and Procurement
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
157. Fuel Subsidy Reform and Green Taxes: Can Digital Technologies Improve State Capacity and Effectiveness?
- Author:
- Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Reforming inefficient and inequitable energy subsidies continues to be an important priority for policymakers as does instituting “green taxes” to reduce carbon emissions. Simply increasing energy prices will have adverse impact on poorer consumers, who may spend substantial budget shares on energy and energy-intensive products even though the rich typically appropriate more of the price subsidy. Equitable pricing reforms therefore need to be accompanied by programs to transfer compensation: depending on the situation, this can be targeted or universal. Successful reforms require measures to raise awareness-of the subsidies and the problems they cause, effective dissemination of the reform to the population, and rapid feedback loops to facilitate mid-course corrections. Digital technology, including for unique identification and payments, as well as general communications, can help build government capacity to undertake such reforms and respond to changes in fuel markets. The paper outlines the use of digital technology, drawing on four country cases. The technology is only a mechanism; it does not, in itself, create the political drive and constituency to push reform forward. However, it can be employed in a number of ways to increase the prospects for successful and sustainable reform.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Reform, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, India, and Latin America
158. Maximizing the Shared Benefits of Legal Migration Pathways: Lessons from Germany’s Skills Partnerships
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The world is experiencing significant demographic shifts. By 2100, Europe’s working-age population will have declined, and sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will have greatly increased. Many of these new labor market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. Germany is one country piloting and implementing projects that can help alleviate such demographic pressures and maximize the potential mutual benefits of legal labor migration. We discuss these projects, and highlight differences in their potential impact on development in the country of origin. We recommend that European governments build on, adapt, and pilot-test one of Germany’s approaches, also known as the Global Skill Partnership model: training potential migrants in their countries of origin before migration, along with non-migrants. Ideally, governments should pursue such pilot-tests with those countries that exhibit rising future migration pressure to Europe, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Neither the conclusion nor the results of this analysis reflect the opinion of the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) or Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Germany, and Sub-Saharan Africa
159. What We Learn about Girls’ Education from Interventions that Do Not Focus on Girls
- Author:
- David Evans and Fei Yuan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Despite dramatic global gains in access to education, 130 million girls of school age remain out of school. Among those who do enter, too many do not gain the essential skills to succeed after they complete their schooling. Previous efforts to synthesize evidence on how to improve educational outcomes for girls have tended to focus on interventions that are principally targeted to girls, such as girls’ latrines or girls’ scholarships. But if general, non-targeted interventions—those that benefit both girls and boys—significantly improve girls’ education, then focusing only on girl-targeted interventions may miss some of the best investments for improving educational opportunities for girls in absolute terms. This review brings together evidence from 270 educational interventions from 177 studies in 54 low- and middle-income countries and identifies their impacts on girls, regardless of whether the interventions specifically target girls. The review finds that to improve access and learning, general interventions deliver gains for girls that are comparable to girl-targeted interventions. At the same time, many more general interventions have been tested, providing a broader menu of options for policy makers. General interventions have similar impacts for girls as for boys. Many of the most effective interventions to improve access for girls are household-based (such as cash transfer programs), and many of the most effective interventions to improve learning for girls involve improving the pedagogy of teachers. Girl-targeted interventions may make the most sense when addressing constraints that are unique to girls.
- Topic:
- Education, Children, Women, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
160. Mexico’s Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico
- Author:
- Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique G. Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Mexico’s financial risks and the policies being adopted by the new administration cannot be ade- quately assessed without recognizing key features that characterize the following initial conditions:
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Finance, Economic Growth, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
161. Unequal Ventures: Results from an Endline Study of Gender and Entrepreneurship in East Java, Indonesia
- Author:
- Mayra Buvinic, Erika Deserranno, Hillary C. Johnson, James C. Knowles, Gianmarco Leon, and Firman Witoelar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This report presents the endline results of a randomized controlled trial in East Java, Indonesia, of demand- and supply-side interventions to increase the use of saving and other branchless banking services by women business owners.
- Topic:
- Development, Gender Issues, Women, Entrepreneurship, Business, Demand, Supply, Banking, and Business Management
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
162. Trends in Private Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries: Good and Not-So-Good News
- Author:
- Nancy Lee and Asad Sami
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Interest in mobilizing private finance for SDG investments is surging in a world of stagnating aid, limited fiscal space, and rising LIC debt. But is more reliance on private finance realistic for LICs? This paper explores the performance since the global financial crisis of one source of private finance for LICs: cross-border private capital inflows. Much of the evidence is encouraging, and some of it flies in the face of conventional wisdom. For LICs, private capital inflows are an important and growing source of finance. For the median LIC, private capital inflows are now as large as ODA as a share of GDP. And the FDI component—most of LIC inflows—has been stable and resilient throughout the post-crisis period. Importantly, inflows are not all captured by resource-rich LICs. In 2017, more than half of capital inflows to LICs went to non-resource-rich LICs. Increasingly, policies, not just resource endowments, shape LIC destinations for foreign capital. The relation between median capital inflows/GDP and median regulatory quality is significantly positive for non-resource-rich LICs. And sources of FDI are diversifying. In 2016, China’s stock of FDI in Africa was almost as large as that of the traditional investors: the US, UK, and France. But there is also not-so-good news. Median private capital inflow/GDP ratios are not positively correlated with median private domestic investment/GDP in LICs. Nor is there a significant relationship with median public investment/GDP. The apparent lack of complementarity between foreign and domestic investment may point to problems related to investment enclaves and/or the role of the state in LIC economies. As in other countries, non-FDI inflows to LICs are volatile and sensitive to global commodity prices and interest rates. We find no relation between median country per capita income levels and private inflows/GDP, highlighting the need for caution in IDA graduation policies.
- Topic:
- Development, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Private Sector, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
163. Chinese Leadership and the Future of BRI: What Key Decisions Lie Ahead?
- Author:
- Brad Parks
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- It’s 2028. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been underway for 15 years, but the initial enthusiasm and momentum behind BRI has vanished. Many of the governments that initially joined the initiative have publicly withdrawn or quietly wound down their participation. China’s staunchest allies remain engaged but even they have reservations about the wisdom of the initiative. They are saddled with unproductive public investment projects and struggling to service their debts. Domestic public sentiment towards China has soured, and they have come to view their participation in BRI as more of a political liability than an asset. But they worry about the consequences of alienating their most important patron and creditor. China has also assumed a defensive posture. Lacking the goodwill that it possessed at the beginning of BRI, it is now using inducements and threats to prevent its remaining clients from abandoning the initiative. Western donors and lenders watch from the sidelines with a sense of bemusement. They encouraged China to “multilateralize” BRI by establishing a common set of project appraisal standards, procurement guidelines, fiduciary controls, and social and environmental safeguards that other aid agencies and development banks could support. But Beijing chose to go it alone. It opted not to embrace the use of economic rate-of-return analysis to vet project proposals; resisted efforts to harmonize its environmental, social, and fiduciary safeguards with those used by aid agencies and development banks outside of China; and pushed back on the “Western” suggestion that it modernize its monitoring and evaluation practices. China bet that its fast and flexible approach to infrastructure finance would prove to be so compelling that traditional donors and lenders would eventually jump on the bandwagon and co-finance BRI projects. But it miscalculated. Its model was insufficiently attractive on its merits to enlist the participation and support of the other major players in the bilateral and multilateral development finance market. Nor was it sufficiently appealing to sustain elite and public support in partner countries.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Leadership, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
164. UK Research Aid: Tied, Opaque and Off-Topic?
- Author:
- G. Lee Robinson, Euan Ritchie, and Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The UK has considerably increased the amount of aid it spends on research in recent years. This policy follows statements by DFID that research is among the best ways of spending aid. It also follows the UK legislating a commitment to spend 0.7 percent of GNI as foreign aid. In pursuing this target, the UK has decreased the proportion of bilateral aid spent through DFID and has channelled more through other departments. BEIS and the Department for Health and Social Care have been big recipients, and research accounts for much of their increased share of aid budgets. The information associated with the majority of this research aid is vague, raising questions about transparency. A large amount of the research is financed using an allocation mechanism that effectively ties it to UK institutions. There are also questions as to the poverty focus of some of the research conducted, given the explicit intention of the UK government to find existing activity to reclassify as ODA following the legislating of the 0.7 percent target. We suggest reporting reforms that will increase transparency and allow greater scrutiny of the way UK research aid is spent. We also call for the UK to live up to its reporting to the OECD that all British aid is untied.
- Topic:
- Health, Research, Academia, and Funding
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
165. Five Things the Health Minister Should Do to Enhance the UK’s Global Health Footprint
- Author:
- Kalipso Chalkidou
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As Health Secretary Matt Hancock returns to his role as part of Boris Johnson’s premiership, he has an opportunity to make good on the UK’s renewed confidence and ambition by drawing on what the new prime minister calls the “best healthcare [system]” to drive improvements in health globally. The UK’s Department of Health and Social Care controls its biggest-ever official development assistance (ODA) budget, doubling between 2017 and 2018 to just under £200m, or 1.3 percent of the country’s aid allocation. This places the UK’s secretary of state for health in a unique position to truly make a difference in countries’ journeys towards universal healthcare coverage (UHC), whilst also defending (and making a case for more of) the ODA money his department has been allocated, even to development aid’s harshest critics. Here are five things he can do to make this happen, both using his own department’s ODA budget and influencing how DFID’s majority share is spent.
- Topic:
- Health, Governance, Health Care Policy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
166. “Contractors or Collectives?” Earmarked Funding of Multilaterals, Donor Needs and Institutional Integrity: The World Bank as a Case Study
- Author:
- Owen Barder, Euan Ritchie, and Andrew Rogerson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- We revisit the policy dilemmas thrown up by so-called Multi-bi funding (earmarked bilateral aid routed via multilateral channels), based on a case study of World Bank trust funds, given their industry-leading overall size and relative transparency. We update patterns of sources and uses of Multi-bi using the 2019 Trust Funds Directory and use this to derive a new Index of Responsible Multi-bi Donorship. We consider complementary donor motivations for Multi-bi, highlighting their perceived need to shift the focus of a multilateral institution faster than they believe possible through its core systems. We examine potential negative effects of Multi-bi on the distortion of funding choices available to client countries, and above all on the risk of “hollowing out” of the multilateral itself, as the locus of power and accountability shifts from the wider collective toward a narrower set of contracting relationships. We find that current trust fund reform efforts can at best partly address these dynamics, while the growing trend toward creation of sub-windows within the main core funding instrument could potentially make things worse. Instead, we offer a pragmatic two-track solution that could significantly reduce tensions between funder needs and institutional integrity. This involves (a) developing an improved battery of output indicators mapped to donor core contributions, to enhance visibility and results reporting and (b) routing new Multi-bi proposals increasingly through core governance processes, focusing initially on greater transparency and on demonstrating their additionality to donors’ core funding.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Finance, Banks, Donors, and Funding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
167. Digital Technology and State Capacity in Kenya
- Author:
- Njuguna Ndung'u
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Following the launch of M-Pesa in 2007, Kenya has emerged as a global leader in the development of mobile money and in increasing rates of financial inclusion. This paper shows how M-Pesa’s success has led to a series of endogenous innovations that have shaped Kenya’s digital space, placing it ahead of other developing economies in the region in the deployment and use of digital technology. It also explains how the mobile financial services revolution enabled the government to implement its e-governance strategy to better provide a range of services and opportunities to beneficiaries of public programs, business, taxpayers and investors, as well as dynamizing the private sector. At the same time, even as it contributes to strengthening state capacity, the digital revolution makes new demands on the state, and the paper outlines several important challenges that Kenya will need to address in order to further consolidate its success. These include improving connectivity across the country, ensuring a fully interoperable mobile payments platform and implementing measures to strengthen consumer protection. Another important focus for the future is to transition to a fully digital identification (e-ID) system. The thrust of the paper is to provide inspiration and guidance for other countries to use Kenya’s achievements as an example.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Leadership, Innovation, Digital Policy, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
168. Five Takeaways on the Future of Humanitarian Reform
- Author:
- Jeremy Konyndyk
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The world’s humanitarian aid architecture is growing outdated. Relief programs are most effective when they are integrated, locally owned, and demand driven. But humanitarian action in the 21st century remains constrained by a 20th-century aid model: siloed, supply driven, and centered on the individual mandates and sectors of major international aid agencies. This makes aid both less effective and less responsive than it could be. In a world where displacement is at the highest levels in generations, climate disasters are increasing, and humanitarian funding is beginning to level off, this disconnect is no longer tenable. But fixing it is not a simple matter—multiple rounds of humanitarian reform over the past 15 years have made progress but fallen short of fundamental change. Earlier this summer in Geneva, CGD convened two high-level private roundtables, one with leaders from humanitarian donor institutions and another with senior executives from major humanitarian aid agencies (both multilaterals and NGOs), to discuss how to make humanitarian aid more cohesive and user-centered. The meetings were part of a multiyear research initiative exploring how modernizing the humanitarian business model and humanitarian governance are integral to improving field-level humanitarian impact. CGD teed up the conversation with three emerging ideas from our research (you can see the presentation slides here). These ideas—the subjects of several forthcoming papers CGD is developing —explore ways of better aligning aid delivery around enhanced impact toward affected people’s priorities
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Reform, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
169. Promoting Investment in Research for Development Outcomes: A Research Ventures Fund at the World Bank
- Author:
- Scott Morris
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This note proposes a new Research Ventures Fund (RVF) at the World Bank to better prioritize R&D investments in support of development progress. The RVF would employ financing mechanisms that are consistent with research needs: significant scale and scope, patience, and tolerance for failure. Existing development-oriented research consortia like CGIAR would provide a promising start for RVF funding allocations. Donors to the IDA-19 replenishment should take the first step in securing funding for the new fund in 2019.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, World Bank, Finance, Research, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
170. Building an EU-Africa Partnership of Equals: A Roadmap for the New European Leadership
- Author:
- Anita Kappeli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The arrival of a new leadership team in Brussels provides an opportunity for Europe to reinvigorate its role as a global development power and to build a true partnership with its continental neighbour, Africa. These tasks have never been more urgent. With only 10 years to go, the world is far from achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. A confluence of well-documented global trends, including accelerating climate change, declining multilateralism, and the erosion of democratic norms, is only increasing the challenge.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Sustainability, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
171. The Political Economy of Testing in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Barbara Bruns, Maryam Akmal, and Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not implemented testing of children’s learning that can be benchmarked regionally or globally. In contrast, in the last two decades, almost all countries in Latin America have participated in regionally and globally benchmarked testing initiatives. Our analysis of the political economy of cross-national learning measurement in Latin America suggests that policymakers perceive the risks of exposing their education system’s performance by joining cross-national assessments, but they also value the quality of the data generated, the strengthening of domestic technical capacity, and the political benefits in using comparative results to argue for reforms or to advertise progress. We document that in Ecuador and Peru cross-national tests played an important role in both stimulating and justifying reforms that have produced major improvements in learning. In sub-Saharan Africa, no cross-national test has been implemented as consistently or widely as the Latin American regional test. The context in Africa makes regional cooperation on cross-national testing more daunting—countries are poorer and more linguistically diverse than in Latin America, raising the relative costs of developing and administering cross-national tests. The experience of Latin America suggests that a coordinated and efficient application of resources in implementing cross-national tests in Africa, on the part of countries and with support of the international community, could help build countries’ national capacity, strengthen focus on learning, support better research, and help diffuse reforms that raise learning.
- Topic:
- Education, Political Economy, Children, and Social Services
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South America, Latin America, North America, and Sub-Saharan Africa
172. Building on Digital ID for Inclusive Services: Lessons from India
- Author:
- Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- India has emerged as a leader in building on its biometric digital ID (Aadhaar) to reform service and program delivery. It moved quickly to consolidate the rollout of Aadhaar, and then to embed the unique Aadhaar number into program databases. A range of applications, including digital signature and payments, was then constructed on top of the Aadhaar foundation (the India Stack). Together with partners, the Center for Global Development is analyzing the effects of Aadhaar-based reforms. India offers lessons for many other countries as their focus evolves from rolling out an ID system towards using it to improve the efficiency and inclusivity of service delivery. Some programs using Aadhaar are federally administered but others are implemented at state level. It is already clear that some states and sectors are reforming better than others, generally because of better design of the digital reforms or stronger capacity to implement them. The three programs we discuss below high- light achievements as well as challenges that need to be overcome for greater efficiency and inclusion.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Identities, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
173. People-Driven Response: Power and Participation in Humanitarian Action
- Author:
- Jeremy Konyndyk and Rose Worden
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The notion that humanitarian response should center on the people it serves, rather than the aid agencies serving them, has been repeatedly codified in humanitarian commitments as far back as the early 1990s. Yet the mainstream humanitarian system has struggled to translate these commitments into practice: corresponding reform efforts have failed to systemically broaden accountability to and participation of aid recipients in response efforts. Major constraints have included misaligned incentive structures between donors and aid agencies, power imbalances between aid providers and aid recipients, and operational and political complexities arising at field level. To produce real systemic change, the aid system must move beyond technical and rhetorical approaches to accountability and begin reshaping the power and incentive structures that influence aid decision-making. This paper proposes a set of mutually reinforcing recommendations centered around three imperatives: enshrining the influence of aid recipients at all levels of aid decision-making; developing independent channels for soliciting the priorities and perspectives of crisis-affected people; and institutionalizing a set of enabling changes to humanitarian operational and personnel practices.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Institutionalism, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
174. Are the Pacific Islands Insurable? Challenges and Opportunities for Disaster Risk Finance
- Author:
- Vijaya Ramachandran and Junaid Sadiq Masood
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- There are several efforts underway in the Pacific Islands to insure public and private assets against natural disasters such as cyclones and earthquakes. These efforts are designed to mitigate the annual costs of such disasters which range from a few percent to over 50 percent of GDP. However, insurance is not a substitute for aid. Most islands are heavily aid dependent and cannot afford to pay the high premiums associated with disaster risk insurance. Insurance to cover disaster risk likely needs to be subsidized to offset costs and to build trust. Governments and donors must also manage basis risk which can be substantial. Over time, investments in resilient infrastructure, coupled with a more comprehensive approach to risk management, may reduce costs and shift premiums to recipients. Finally, current and proposed schemes which provide insurance cover or other products must provide information in a transparent manner on effective demand along with costs, benefits and administrative fees. A clearly defined exit strategy is necessary if funds are not disbursed in a timely manner.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief, Environment, Natural Disasters, and Insurance
- Political Geography:
- Pacific Ocean
175. Why Uncertainty in Global Health Interventions Matters—and What We Can Do About It
- Author:
- Kalipso Chalkidou, Anupama Dathan, and Francis Ruiz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Global health interventions, like many public policies, are rife with uncertainty. Will a program, such as a malaria prevention strategy that looks strong on paper, work as intended? Will a new technology, such as a specific drug or device that appears effective in clinical trial settings, work in practice and provide good value-for-money? In the case of programs made up of a complex interaction of multiple interventions, implementers often create a theory of change and then meticulously track whether it is being followed every step of the way, from each input translating into the prespecified activity, and the activities yielding the right outputs and the expected outcomes. When observational data is available that permits quantitative analysis (evaluation), it may also be possible to estimate causal impact in a given setting by applying experimental methods (such as a randomized controlled trial) or quasi-experimental techniques (such as difference-in-difference analysis). Such program evaluations generally consider outputs (e.g. the number of bed nets distributed) and relatively short-term outcomes (e.g. malaria infections following bed net distribution). Many eval- uations also collect data years after the program to identify longer-term impacts. Cost-effectiveness calculations are sometimes conducted after ascertaining the cost and impact of the program, but such analyses aren’t necessarily considered when determining whether to implement a certain program or technology—especially when politics and other concerns get in the way. Discrete clinical interventions and technologies (which are defined as including clinical interven- tions, drugs, diagnostics and even public health programs) are usually the subject of health technolo- gy assessment (HTA) to inform coverage decisions in many contexts. The underpinning evidence base for HTA typically involves a synthesis of randomized trial data, designed to reduce bias in estimating causal inference and relative effectiveness. Trial data is then combined with information from other sources and study designs to develop models of the technology’s long-term health and cost impact in a given context. A key feature of both programs and technologies is uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Intervention, and Pharmaceuticals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
176. Marginal, Not Transformational: Development Finance Institutions and the Sustainable Development Goals
- Author:
- Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Development finance institutions have positioned themselves as key agencies to help the world meet the Sustainable Development Goals. It is doubtful that they can deliver. This paper outlines the challenges facing DFIs in achieving (anywhere near) such an expansion in their impact, particularly in infrastructure and particularly in the poorest countries. It notes that private investment in SDG priority areas is low in the poorest countries, and the record of private investment in rolling out services is mixed. These issues are linked in part to significant supply side constraints based on country characteristics. DFIs do better than the market as a whole at investing in challenging infrastructure–but not by much. And while the scale of their ‘leverage’ in terms of attracting dollars that would otherwise not have been invested is hard to determine, in the poorest markets in infrastructure it is certainly low. Finally, DFIs and donors more broadly have long tried to improve deal flow with limited success, suggesting there are few deals on the margin of occurring which only require small extra incentives to materialize.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Institutions, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
177. Teacher Professional Development around the World: The Gap between Evidence and Practice
- Author:
- Anna Popova, David Evans, Mary E. Breeding, and Violeta Arancibia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Many teachers in low- and middle-income countries lack the skills to teach effectively, and professional development (PD) programs are the principal tool that governments use to upgrade those skills. At the same time, few PD programs are evaluated, and those that are evaluated show highly varying results. In this paper, we propose a set of indicators—the In-Service Teacher Training Survey Instrument—to standardize reporting on teacher PD programs. Applying the instrument to 33 rigorously evaluated PD programs, we find that programs that link participation to career incentives, have a specific subject focus, incorporate lesson enactment in the training, and include initial face-to-face training tend to show higher student learning gains. In qualitative interviews, program implementers also report follow-up visits as among the most effective characteristics of their professional development programs. We then use the instrument to present novel data on a sample of 139 government-funded, at-scale professional development programs across 14 countries. The attributes of most at-scale teacher professional development programs differ sharply from those of programs that evidence suggests are effective, with fewer incentives to participate in PD, fewer opportunities to practice new skills, and less follow-up once teachers return to their classrooms.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Labor Issues, Academia, and Teaching
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
178. Moving Beyond the Emergency: A Whole of Society Approach to the Refugee Response in Bangladesh
- Author:
- Lauren Post, Rachel Landry, and Cindy Huang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Bangladesh provides a significant global public good by hosting over one million Rohingya refugees. Most are living in camps in Cox’s Bazar district, where resources and livelihoods are strained. The refugee situation is likely to be protracted, and medium-term planning is critical. CGD has been working with local and international partners to understand what that medium-term response could look like. This is one of five publications where we outline steps for developing a medium-term plan for Bangladesh, to benefit refugees and their host community alike. The other four cover forest and landscape restoration, trade, private sector investment, and labor mobility.
- Topic:
- Development, Refugees, Social Services, Humanitarian Crisis, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and Asia
179. Multilingual Assessment of Early Child Development: Analyses from Repeated Observations of Children in Kenya
- Author:
- Heather A. Knauer, Patricia Kariger, Pamela Jakiela, Owen Ozier, and Lia C.H. Fernald
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In many low- and middle-income countries, young children learn a mother tongue or indigenous language at home before entering the formal education system where they will need to understand and speak a country’s official language(s). Thus, assessments of children before school age, conducted in a nation’s official language, may not fully reflect a child’s development, underscoring the importance of test translation and adaptation. To examine differences in vocabulary development by language of assessment, we adapted and validated instruments to measure developmental outcomes, including expressive and receptive vocabulary. We assessed 505 2-to-6- year-old children in rural communities in Western Kenya with comparable vocabulary tests in three languages: Luo (the local language or mother tongue), Swahili, and English (official languages) at two time points, 5–6 weeks apart, between September 2015 and October 2016. Younger children responded to the expressive vocabulary measure exclusively in Luo (44–59% of 2-to-4-year-olds) much more frequently than did older children (20–21% of 5-to-6-year-olds). Baseline receptive vocabulary scores in Luo (β = 0.26, SE = 0.05, p < 0.001) and Swahili (β = 0.10, SE = 0.05, p = 0.032) were strongly associated with receptive vocabulary in English at follow-up, even after controlling for English vocabulary at baseline. Parental Luo literacy at baseline (β = 0.11, SE = 0.05, p = 0.045) was associated with child English vocabulary at follow-up, while parental English literacy at baseline was not. Our findings suggest that multilingual testing is essential to understanding the developmental environment and cognitive growth of multilingual children.
- Topic:
- Development, Children, Linguistics, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
180. When Does “What Works” Work? And What Does that Mean for UK Aid R&D Spend?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny, Euan Ritchie, and G. Lee Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The UK’s Secretary of State for International Development[1] oversees an aid-financed R&D[2] budget that is larger than that of the next 15 biggest donors combined. [3] At the moment, a considerable proportion of that UK R&D spend goes towards solving global technological challenges related to neglected tropical diseases including malaria, and a considerable proportion again towards local evaluation of aid-financed development interventions. Much of the rest is somewhat opaquely distributed to British universities for research supposedly related to development. As well as reform of this last category, the range of more legitimate activities benefiting from ODA “research and development” calls for innovation in approaches to deliver outcomes. This paper will argue there is a (fuzzy) spectrum of development procedures, for some of which global innovation, evaluation, or “best practice” can be informative, for some of which local evaluation or experimentation can be useful, and for some of which perhaps only practical experience and local wisdom can help. That there is a spectrum of intervention types and research opportunities, and that local evidence is often required, has implications for the kind of research that UK aid can usefully support as part of its R&D program and where that research should happen. In turn, that suggests a reform agenda for the way UK ODA for R&D is currently spent.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Research
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
181. Five Principles for Use of Aid in Subsidies to the Private Sector
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- There is a significant and ongoing ramp-up in support for explicitly subsidized official development finance to the private sector around the world, but its role remains poorly defined. Lessons from the aid effectiveness literature as a whole and principles on effective use of aid suggest the need for approaches that do not merely finance the marginal private investment. Regarding experience of government intervention in markets, subsidies are only one of many options to incentivize the private sector, and bespoke subsidies provided by outside actors are rarely likely to be the most efficient form. This paper discusses where outside subsidy of the private sector may make sense and develops principles for the use of aid in subsidies based on that analysis. Subsidies should be allocated on the basis of necessity in meeting public policy goals; the norm for subsidy allocations should be competitive approaches or open offers; non-competitive subsidies should only support market making; subsidy levels should be capped; and subsidy levels should be transparent. Much of the content of these “new” principles is already implied or specified by the existing Multilateral Development Bank Principles to Support Sustainable Private Sector Operations, but they suggest that development finance institutions should not use their standard business model when using subsidies.
- Topic:
- Development, Privatization, Foreign Aid, Private Sector, and Subsidies
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
182. What Is “Country Ownership”? A Formal Exploration of the Aid Relationship
- Author:
- William Savedoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The aid literature and high-level accords like the Paris Declaration argue that “country ownership” is critical to the effectiveness of aid. In response, donors and recipients renamed themselves “development partners,” obscuring the tendency for country ownership benefits (i.e. more successful and sustainable programs) to come at the expense of satisfying the funding countries’ priorities. This paper illustrates the tradeoff between country ownership and funders’ priorities with a formal model in which aid is governed by a contract to produce a jointly desired outcome. The model generalizes the Principal-Agent approaches for studying aid which treat countries as having multiple objectives. The new model illustrates how a recipient country’s rational resource allocation choices vary with different aid contracts, whether based on lump sum payments, input-based payments, conditional payments, matching grants or outcome payments. It reveals two critical aspects of the country ownership debate. First, even when funders and recipients agree on project goals, funders can only achieve their priorities through distorting domestic allocative choices. Second, funders are likely to fully embrace country ownership only in cases where they believe alternative uses of domestic funds have integrity (as defined by the funder). The model also shows that when funders put higher priority on achieving their goals than accommodating recipient allocation preferences, they should prefer conditional payments, matching grants, or outcome payments. Among these, the donor’s preferences would depend on the relative observability of expenditures to outcomes. If instead funders embrace country ownership and seek to maximize the country’s welfare, lump sum grants are better. In terms of Paris Declaration goals of sustainability, the aid contracts which are least aligned with recipient country priorities will not be sustained after aid ends unless domestic preferences are altered by a process of hysteresis.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
183. ABCs of the IFIs: The African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development
- Author:
- Scott Morris, Erin Collinson, and Alysha Gardner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The African Development Bank (AfDB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) are among the international financial institutions seeking pledges from donor countries as part of upcoming replenishment cycles in 2019 and 2020. The United States is a leading donor to these funds and has played a crucial role in shaping the institutions’ agendas throughout their histories.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Finance, Banks, Institutions, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia
184. Strengthening European Leadership on Global Health Security
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman, Jeremy Konyndyk, and Liesl Schnabel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Impending leadership transitions in EU institutions provide a unique opportunity to bolster European action on global health security. This would be a double win for the EU: advancing its efforts to foster progress in developing countries while also protecting Europe itself against potential disease risks. To help strengthen the EU’s leadership on global health security, the new Commission should
- Topic:
- Security, Health, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe
185. Redesigning the External Investment Plan to be a Game-Changer for Africa
- Author:
- Mikaela Gavas
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Despite their potential to achieve high development impact, projects in the poorest and most fragile countries, most in sub-Saharan Africa, are chronically underfinanced by Euro- pean development finance institutions and private investors owing to real or perceived low risk-adjusted returns. The External Investment Plan and its risk-mitigation tools, if struc- tured right, have the potential to mobilise investment where the need is greatest. To make this happen, the new European Commission should n clarify the strategic objectives of external investment and steer it towards leveraging high-risk capital for underserved markets; n explicitly focus assistance on the poorest countries through clear project selection criteria; n provide demand-driven technical assistance and oper- ationalise policy dialogue to improve the business envi- ronment; and n federate the development finance institutions focusing on steering policy, encouraging best practice, and har- monising procedures and results amongst the develop- ment finance institutions and multilateral development banks.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa
186. Reforming EU Trade Policy to Accelerate Economic Transformation in Africa
- Author:
- Hannah Timmis and Ian Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As the rest of the developing world has reaped the benefits of rapid globalisation, Africa has remained marginalised in international trade. The new European Commission has an opportunity to accelerate export-led growth on the continent by introducing a bolder, more coherent policy on trade, agriculture, and aid.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Economic Development, and Economic Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
187. Focusing on Fragility: The Future of US Assistance to Fragile States
- Author:
- Sarah Rose
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Global development is increasingly intertwined with state fragility. Poverty is becoming concentrated in fragile states, and conflict, violent extremism, and environmental stresses can both stem from and be ex- acerbated by fragility. As a result, many donors—including the United States—are rethinking how their engagement can better help countries address the underlying causes of fragility, build peace and stability, and cope with complex risks. The United States is the top provider of official development assistance to fragile states, but much of this aid has not focused on reducing fragility. Even where confronting fragility has been a central objec- tive of US development assistance, the track record of success has been mixed, at best. New efforts are emerging to change this story. Reflecting on lessons of the past, the United States government has been developing new policy frameworks, initiatives, and proposed reforms that seek to address shortcomings in how the US government engages in fragile states. To contribute to this conversation, the Center for Global Development convened a working group of more than 20 experts, including former officials from the State Department, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the US intelligence community, along with noted academics and policy experts to identify specific ideas for how the US government can more effectively use its develop- ment assistance—in conjunction with diplomatic and security assistance tools—in fragile states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Aid, Fragile States, State Building, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
188. Automation and AI: Implications for African Development Prospects?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Now that computers are capable of taking the jobs that require brain as well as brawn, it may appear there is little left for humans to do. There are many scary forecasts of the capacity of automation and AI to replace a lot of workers very fast. Self-driving vehicles may wipe out opportunities for taxi driv- ers and truckers, for example. Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson note there are 3.5 million people em- ployed driving vehicles in the US. If automation reduced that to 1.5 million, that alone would increase total US labor productivity by 1.7 percent,1 but it would also leave two million drivers looking for work. In 2013, Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne made waves by predicting that 47 percent of US employment was automatable over the next two decades, with a higher estimate for developing countries.2 Erin Winick of Technology Review subsequently produced a summary table of job losses and gains estimations on automation.3 Some of the worldwide figures are in Table 1. There are clearly two sides to the ledger, but some of the predicted job loss numbers at the global level are considerable. The forecasts suggest bad news for Africa in particular, given concentration in types of low-skill jobs that might be easy to automate, rising working age populations, and already far too few good jobs to occupy the existing population. Arntz et al. suggest the share of workers at high risk of automation is 40 percent amongst those with a lower secondary education and above 50 percent for those with primary or less education.4 Advanced manufacturing and AI applications including automated call centers might even reverse the trend towards manufacturing and low-skilled services moving to developing countries. That would imperil a recent run of global income convergence. And there have been cases of impact al- ready: Foxconn replacing 30 percent of its workforce when it introduced robots, and 1,000 lost jobs in Vietnam when Adidas shuttered a factory and moved production to “speed factories” in Germany and the US. If this is the beginning of a trend, it would be harmful to African development prospects.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa
189. Can the US Development Finance Corporation Compete?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The new US International Development Finance Corporation (USDFC) will be considerably larger than its predecessor, and it will also be more focused on low and lower middle income countries. It will have new tools to deliver but face expanded competition. The major challenge to the DFC is not Chinese investment (which largely funds projects ill-suited to support from the DFC), but other development finance institutions, many of which are deploying increasing quantities of subsidized capital to attract project sponsors. It is not clear that there are sufficient suitable deals in the shrinking set of low and lower-middle income countries to absorb DFI development finance, and the USDFC could lose projects to subsidized finance from elsewhere if this turns out to be the case. Given that, it should be a priority for the United States to agree rules with other donors that prevent development finance institutions from competing on the basis of subsidy. The new DFC needs increased capacity to deliver deals: both the tools provided by the BUILD Act which are being constrained by the administration and the staff and budget to actively build a pipeline of projects. A considerably bolstered administrative budget may involve reducing –potentially to zero—the profitability OPIC traditionally enjoyed.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Finance, Institutions, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
190. Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As Europe’s working-age population continues to decline, sub-Saharan Africa’s is rapidly increasing. Many of these new labour market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. To make the most of these movements, the new European Commission should create and promote new kinds of legal labour migration pathways with more tangible benefits to countries of origin and destination; pilot and scale Global Skill Partnership projects between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and within Africa; and be a positive voice for migration within Europe, promoting the benefits from migration and ensuring they are understood.
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Legal Theory, Borders, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
191. Ecological Fiscal Transfers and Subnational Budgets: Did Forest-Based Fiscal Devolution Lead Indian States to Increase Forestry Expenditure?
- Author:
- Jonah Busch, Avani Kapur, and Anit Mukherjee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Later this year, India’s 15th Finance Commission will review the formula used by its predecessor to determine how much central tax revenue will be devolved to each state for fiscal years 2020-21 through 2024-25. Currently, 7.5 percent of the fiscal devolution (an estimated $6.9-12 billion per year) is allocated in proportion to their forest area circa 2013. These “ecological fiscal transfers” (EFTs) provide Indian states with the incentive to increase their forestry budgets as an investment in increased future shares of central taxes. In this paper, we look at whether states are yet taking advantage of this opportunity. We find that states increased their forestry budgets by 19 percent in three years after the introduction of EFTs relative to three years prior. However, this increase is considerably less than the 42 percent overall budget increase over the same time period. We surmise that states are not yet certain that EFTs will continue in such a way that increases in forest cover will be rewarded with increases in revenue. We recommend that the 15th Finance Commission resolve this uncertainty for states by (i) keeping forests in the devolution formula, and (ii) updating the reference year (e.g. 2019). By doing so India’s EFTs can fulfill their potential as an innovative mechanism for incentivizing states to protect and restore forests, thereby mitigating climate change.
- Topic:
- Environment, Governance, Fiscal Policy, Ecology, and Forest
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
192. Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia
- Author:
- Gaurav Khana, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Canonical models of crime emphasize economic incentive. Yet, causal evidence of sorting into criminal occupations in response to individual-level variation in incentives is limited. We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellín over a decade. We exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive benefits if not formally employed, to test whether a higher cost to formal-sector employment induces crime. Regression discontinuity estimates show this policy generated reductions in formal-sector employment and a corresponding spike in organized crime, but no effects on crimes of impulse or opportunity.
- Topic:
- Employment, Illegal Trade, Organized Crime, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
193. A Smoother Trade Transition for Graduating LDCs
- Author:
- Kimberly Ann Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- For nearly 50 years, the world’s “least developed countries” have received extra financial support and preferential trade treatment to help them grow and develop. In the first three decades after the Unit- ed Nations (UN) created the LDC category in 1971, only one country—diamond-rich Botswana—out- grew that status. Since then, four more countries have graduated, and the pace is set to accelerate over the coming decade. Moreover, the countries approaching graduation in the next decade will pose different adjustment challenges than those that preceded them. When a country successfully graduates, it loses access to the special finance and trade programs that come with LDC status. In the case of trade, that can mean the graduating country’s exporters sudden- ly face the higher tariffs that their more advanced competitors face, so-called most-favored nation (MFN) tariffs. Even if these countries remain eligible for the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) that is available to developing countries, those programs are typically much less generous than the duty-free, quota-free market access that most advanced economies provide for LDCs.1 Moreover, out- side the European Union (EU), few countries provide transition measures for graduating LDCs (see Annex A). Nor does there appear to be much planning to prepare for the coming wave of graduations. The United Kingdom has already committed to provide barrier-free market access for LDCs, similar to the EU’s Everything But Arms (EBA) program.2 But British policymakers have a unique opportunity to improve on that model as part of post-Brexit trade and development planning, including to ad- dress the coming wave of graduations. And if the UK remains in the customs union, it can work with EU policymakers to improve the graduation process as part of the review of the GSP regulation that expires in 2023.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Trade, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
194. Gender Equality in US Think Tank Leadership: Data from Tax Records
- Author:
- Charles Kenny and Julian Duggan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Existing analysis of US think tanks suggests that women are underrepresented among senior staff, lead- ership, and board members. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Soraya Kamali-Nafar at Women In Interna- tional Security examined 22 Washington, DC-based think tanks working on foreign policy and national and international security, and they found that 68 percent of the heads of the think tanks were men, along with 73 percent of the experts and 78 percent of those on governing boards. In 2018, a random sampling of 10 leading US think tanks working on development by Charles Kenny and Tanvi Jaluka sug- gested that women made up 30 percent of high-paid employees and 10 percent of highest-paid employ- ees, and that higher-paid women earned only 75 percent that of higher-paid men. This note updates the 2018 analysis with a larger sample of think tanks covering a longer period and includes measures of think tank reach to examine if more established think tanks perform better or worse on gender equality within their senior ranks. Across the 71 think tanks for which we have data, we find that the average share of trustees and directors that were women was 23 percent, the average share of highly compensated employees that were women was 30 percent, and highly compensat- ed women were paid 92 percent of what highly compensated men were paid. Conservative-leaning think tanks performed notably worse than the average on the share of high-paid employees who were women, as did think tanks that worked on global development. Older think tanks saw worse gender pay ratios. Having a woman as CEO was not associated with greater pay equality. Analysis of the gen- der pay ratio suggest that it may be driven in part by a few very highly compensated men in senior positions, but also that, conditional on job title and think tank of employment, highly paid women are paid $30,000 less per year than highly paid men.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Leadership, Feminism, and Equality
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
195. Taxing “Bads”: An Overview of Research Initiatives
- Author:
- Ruth Lopert
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Around the world, development economists and researchers are exploring proposals to tax excise goods, and several have produced models demonstrating that such taxes can generate substantial revenues. This note attempts to list the organizations and research initiatives currently addressing taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages—the “bads”—to help navigate the landscape of existing research and identify gaps and opportunities for further work.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Tax Systems, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
196. Lending Terms for IFAD Projects
- Author:
- Scott Morris and Jessie Lu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Donor support for agriculture development is not keeping pace with developing country demand or the need for finance implied by Sustainable Development Goal 2. In order to increase the overall volume of resources available for these needs, IFAD is pursuing a reform agenda that considers providing loans on harder terms to its client countries. This study assesses whether this hardening of lending terms will affect country demand for projects. Using the World Bank experience as a proxy, this paper examines whether graduation from the International Development Association to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development affects the sector portfolios of countries and the types of investment demands within agriculture through both statistical and qualitative country case study analysis. We find that as countries graduate, there is a relative shift away from “soft” sector investments and a different mix of investments within the agricultural sector. We argue that IFAD’s consideration of harder lending terms should also include consideration of how to respond to a different mix of country demand within the agricultural sector. Specifically, the fund should consider some scaling up of projects, increased emphasis on capital investments, and a greater emphasis on policy engagement with client countries.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Investment, Sustainability, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
197. Global and Local Challenges in Argentina and Brazil
- Author:
- Guillermo Calvo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The last presidential elections in Argentina (2015) and in Brazil (2018), represent a change from populism towards more orthodox economic policies in two important countries in the region. This shift is not only economic but also reflects other fundamental changes in the electorate, in particular the growing dissatisfaction of the population with issues such as weak security and growing corruption in political institutions. In both countries, there are significant fiscal problems and adjustment is needed. But in modern democracies, the success or failure of economic policy is closely tied to political developments. Notably, both countries face their macroeconomic challenges under a parliamentary minority; a situation that is common to many countries in the region at present. Economies highly integrated into the international capital markets, with macroeconomic imbalances inherited from populist governments, face a particularly difficult challenge. On the one hand, the required fiscal tightening entails the execution of policies that may result in greater social unrest, thus encouraging a gradual approach. On the other hand, a gradual approach requires a greater funding stream of financial funds thus exposing the economy to higher financial risk. The dilemma of choosing between a shock adjustment and a gradual approach has been central to understanding what has happened in Argentina and is essential to assessing the options available to the next government in Brazil. The dilemma about the optimal speed of fiscal adjustment has been faced by other countries in the region in the past. In some successful cases of gradualism, the presence of a clear commitment mechanism over the fiscal path, including the implementation of goals agreed with the IMF, has played a decisive role in mitigating the credibility gap typically linked to gradual approaches. One question that the Committee puts forward throughout this statement is to what extent does Argentina's experience entail relevant lessons for Brazil? In order to thoroughly understand these possible lessons and the challenges that both countries face, it is important to consider the similarities and differences between Argentina and Brazil. There is no doubt that both countries are dealing with formidable fiscal challenges. In both countries, there is a primary fiscal deficit and public debt levels are high in relation to GDP. Also, both economies face low or negative growth rates, partly because of cyclical or temporary factors and partly because of low productivity levels due to complex regulatory regimes and tax systems that hinder investment. On the other hand, the realities of Argentina and Brazil are very different in some important aspects. Brazil has not had to cope with a currency crisis and external financing problems such as those of Argentina; the latter has had to reduce its hefty deficit in the current account of the balance of payments. In contrast, Brazil’s external public debt and external financing needs of the public sector are low. However, while the private sector’s foreign indebtedness is quite moderate in Argentina, it is relatively high in the case of Brazil. As regards to monetary policy and inflation, the situation in both countries is also very different. Whereas the inflation rate in Argentina has suffered a substantial increase throughout this year in the context of low credibility in its monetary policy, Brazil has kept a low and stable inflation rate and has significantly improved its central bank’s credibility. These similarities and differences require a differentiated discussion of each country, even if some challenges facing Argentina and Brazil are shared, and whether their experiences provide lessons for each other. The international context plays a fundamental role for both economies in determining the results of economic policy. Before embarking on a more detailed analysis of the challenges facing Argentina and Brazil during the next year, we will analyze how the international context has recently changed, in the next section.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Populism, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, and South America
198. Development Impact Bonds Targeting Health Outcomes
- Author:
- Lorcan Clarke, Kalipso Chalkidou, and Cassandra Nemzoff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As of December 2018, seven development impact bonds (DIBs) have been launched across seven countries with nearly US$55million in cumulative outcome funding. DIBs fund public services through contracts where private investors provide upfront flexible funding to service providers and outcome funders repay these investors based on the outcomes achieved by people receiving services. Three DIBs specifically target health outcomes: the Humanitarian Impact Bond, the Utkrisht Impact Bond, and the Cameroon Cataract Bond. The three “health DIBs” involve US$26.5 million in upfront investment, US$38.1 million in outcome funding and aim to impact the health of at least 31,600 people. Using publicly available information, we describe all seven DIBs, and evaluate the three “health DIBs” in more detail, comparing their stakeholders, implementation, and outcome structures. Building on a scoping review of relevant literature, we outline health DIBs in the pipeline and note that the potential of DIBs as a funding structure is hindered by the lack of publicly available information on their estimated impact and value for money. We offer three recommendations to improve evaluation and inform development of DIBs in the future: (1) publish plans and evaluations, (2) create and use consistent reporting guidelines, and (3) allocate funding to evaluate impact and value for money.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
199. The International Development Finance Club and the Sustainable Development Goals
- Author:
- Scott Morris
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) face a key dilemma . Although major multilateral institutions like the World Bank and the other core multilateral devel- opment banks (MDBs) have played a leadership role in shaping the SDG financing framework, there is a sig- nificant misalignment between the structure of these institutions and SDG financing needs . Specifically, the SDGs put countries, not multilateral institutions or foreign donors, at the forefront in achieving desired outcomes . Further, the SDG financing agenda identi- fies an important role for the private sector and other nonsovereign actors . Although the MDBs will remain key players in SDG financing, other leading actors—and particularly, other ways of organizing across institu- tions—will be needed to meet the SDGs . The International Development Finance Club (IDFC) is uniquely positioned to play a leadership role on the SDGs . A diverse group of development finance insti- tutions (DFIs), IDFC members collectively embrace a strong country-led focus and private-sector orienta- tion . Members represent a variety of models . Some act as national banks, focused primarily on domestic financing . Others act as bilateral aid agencies and DFIs . Still others act as regional and multilateral develop- ment institutions . Together they bring considerable financial and strategic resources to meet SDG financing needs, and they appear to be well matched to respond to key SDG requirements, including the call for nation- ally led development strategies and the need for sub- stantial private-sector and nonsovereign investment, particularly in infrastructure . This report surveys 22 IDFC member institutions to identify the club’s role in meeting SDG financing needs . Through institutional snapshots, aggregated financial data, qualitative inputs, and case studies, the report reveals a high degree of SDG relevance in these development institutions . We find that the total assets of IDFC institutions are significantly greater than the total assets of core MDBs, indicating that as an orga- nization, IDFC has untapped power as an organiz- ing platform for the SDG agenda . We also find a high degree of alignment between IDFC-reported activities and the full range of SDGs, though only a minority of IDFC members inform their operations with an explicit SDG strategy . Most relevant to the question of leveraging private financing for the SDGs, especially infrastructure, our survey indicates that as a group, IDFC members primarily finance nonsovereign enti- ties, especially private firms, in the course of pursuing development objectives . The IDFC could play a stronger leadership role on behalf of its membership by better aligning its mandate with the SDG agenda . We see a future in which IDFC members adopt common standards for SDG frame- works and for tracking the inputs and outputs relevant to the SDGs . Members should consider the degree to which they wish to make the club a meaningful plat- form for coordination, deliberation, and visibility for the broader SDG agenda . This agenda implies a wid- ening set of demands on members and may require a more robust secretariat to support a wider range of reporting activities, information gathering, agenda setting, and convening . Through a greater commitment to SDG-oriented activ- ities, IDFC members could demonstrate the value of organizing around national, bilateral, and multilateral development institutions to address the leading devel- opment challenges in the years ahead .
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
200. UK Aid Quality Indicators
- Author:
- Caitlin McKee, Ian Mitchell, and Arthur Baker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses the United Kingdom’s foreign aid quality based on an updated assessment of the Quality of Official Development Assistance (QuODA) published by the Center for Global Development. QuODA uses 24 quantitative indicators based on how aid is given, grouped into four themes: maximizing efficiency, fostering institutions, reducing the burden on recipient countries, and transparency and learning. These are based on principles which donor and recipient countries agreed to in a series of high-level meetings on aid effectiveness. We find UK aid quality has decreased from 2012 to 2016 and now ranks 15th out of the 27 countries assessed. The quality of its multilateral aid is relatively strong with significant contributions to EU institutions who score in the top half of multilateral agencies, and well-above the UK’s bilateral aid. We analyse the UK’s bilateral aid in detail, identifying areas of relative strength but also four recommendations for the UK Government to improve aid effectiveness
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe