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2. Ukraine’s relations with Russia, the EU and the US: The background, the current crisis and what must be done
- Author:
- Volodymyr Dubovyk
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of Euromaidan (Maidan II), Ukraine finds itself entangled in a deep crisis, which, while not necessarily existential, dramatically alters the country’s internal dynamics and international positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors and other significant regional and global players. To handle this crisis, Ukraine must find the right method of dealing with international players, especially the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States of America. Ukraine should take certain actions against the new super-assertive and aggressive Russia. The European Union unquestionably has provided significant aid to Ukraine during these turbulent times. However, there remains great potential for cooperation, and questions linger regarding whether the EU is prepared to foot the bill for pulling Ukraine’s economy away from the brink indefinitely. Finally, the United States should by all means continue doing its good work in bringing attention to the situation in and around Ukraine in a variety of ways, including multilateral venues, unilateral initiatives, and bilateral frameworks. The fact that Ukraine is located in Europe does not make this crisis a mere European problem but a conflict with global repercussions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and European Union
3. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future
- Author:
- Oleksandr Fisun
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
4. Understanding Public Opinion in Russia During the Ukraine Crisis
- Author:
- Timothy Frye
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- What are public attitudes in Russia toward the war in Ukraine? Is this Putin’s war, or do his narrative on Ukraine and the policies he has followed toward that country resonate with Russian citizens? If the war has popular support, to what extent is this the case and why?
- Topic:
- International Relations, War, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
5. Ukraine As A Buffer Zone? History Lessons For The New Geopolitics Of Eurasia
- Author:
- Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a “buffer zone” between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. Based on a survey of the history of buffer zones in Ukraine and elsewhere, we argue that buffer strategies are most likely to succeed in promoting international stability when three mutually reinforcing conditions obtain. First, the buffer state has the material strength, defensible geography, and social cohesiveness necessary to resist penetration, annexation, or partition. Second, states that may contemplate using war as a means to annex or dominate the buffer zone anticipate high risks and costs. Buffers survive when flanking powers are relatively weak, satisfied, skeptical that “offense is the best defense,” and chary of commitments to reckless allies and clients. Third, whether the major powers have agreed, implicitly or explicitly, on rules to regulate their rivalry in the buffer region may also affect the likelihood of a collision. Based on these findings, we are doubtful that Ukraine can serve as a reliable buffer.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
6. The Role of Donbas Universities in Reconciliation and Prevention of Future Conflicts in Ukraine
- Author:
- Olena Lennon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Ukraine’s future depends in part on whether a formula for re-integrating the breakaway Donbas “republics” into the Ukrainian state can be devised. Most treatments of this problem dwell on decentralization and consider the forms that might take in eastern Ukraine. Olena Lennon examines the prospects for reintegration from an original angle. What role, she asks, might higher educational institutions in the Donbas play in that process?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
7. The Challenges Facing Modern Ukraine: Oligarchy
- Author:
- Serhiy Leshchenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Modern-day Ukraine faces myriad challenges; chief among them is corruption and its derivative, oligarchy. By and large, Russia’s aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine was enabled by oligarchy. For deoligarchization to occur, Ukraine must adopt a law regulating transparency in media ownership that would require oligarchs to disclose their holdings
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, and Oligarchy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
8. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Sergei Markedonov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
9. Non-State Militias and Borderlands in Eastern Ukraine
- Author:
- Kimberly Marten
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Kimberly Marten considers the role that freewheeling private militias have played, both in the war in eastern Ukraine and in Ukraine’s politics more generally. While militias supplemented the Ukrainian army’s firepower, especially in the early phase of the war, we know from the experience of other countries that autonomous armed groups can also challenge the authority of the state and undermine its efficacy. How might militias shape Ukraine political trajectory and shape its security?
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, Non State Actors, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Eastern Europe
10. Euromaidan, War, and the Development of Ukraine’s Political System in 2014 - 2015
- Author:
- Mykhailo Minakov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Have the Euromaidan protests broken the rout of authoritarian rule in Ukraine? Is Ukraine’s political system tending towards free, democratic and open? It is probably too early to give a definite answer to these questions. In my opinion, there are two competing agendas in Ukraine, one of which supports the development of democracy, and the other which threatens it. The vast majority of Ukrainians supports one of these agendas and formulates demands correspondingly. Ukraine’s democratic prospects are in the process of unfolding.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, International Affairs, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
11. Trade and conflict: Ukraine’s trade with Russia in and after 2014
- Author:
- Veronika Movchan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to review existing Ukrainian-Russian trade relations and explore the feasibility of Ukraine’s trade reorientation away from the Russian market, given growing trade tensions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
12. The United States and Ukraine—A Long, Hard Slog
- Author:
- Eugene Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Eugene Rumer’s paper focuses on American foreign policy choices, notably the complexity of pursuing objectives, some of which cannot easily be reconciled: helping to consolidate democracy and promote economic reform in Ukraine, contributing to Ukraine’s stability, reassuring nervous NATO allies, and avoiding a confrontation with Russia. Given these goals, Rumer asks, what would constitute a sensible strategy, and how should it be pursued?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Ukraine
13. How best to explain the Russia/Ukraine/EU crisis from different theoretical perspectives of international relations
- Author:
- Klaus Segbers
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Many attempts have been made to interpret and explain the Russian annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. These signal events can be approached from different theoretical angles. The purpose of this short piece is to critically question the usefulness and appropriateness of state‐centered approaches that have been, and are yet, dominant and popular – most likely because they are so easy to apply intuitively.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
14. Ukraine in Contemporary Geopolitical and Socioeconomic Relations
- Author:
- Grigoriy Shamborovskyi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper explores topics related to Ukraine’s Relations with Russia, the EU, and the US. These relationships are explored in terms of international trade, security issues and institution building. Finally, the existence of internal political and socioeconomic divisions is discussed.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, Ukraine, and European Union
15. Ukraine’s relations with the EU and Russia: Why geopolitics and domestic reforms are linked
- Author:
- Iryna Solonenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses Ukraine’s choice between maintain relations with the EU and Russia, a choice that is not merely a foreign policy choice or a choice between two integration models. Rather, it represents a choice between two normative orders or two different value systems. If Ukraine succeeds in pursuing the European model and breaking away from its tradition of a “captured state,” Russian leverage in Ukraine will also diminish. Therefore, undertaking this transformation is of crucial – if not existential – importance for Ukraine. The very survival of Ukraine’s statehood will depend on it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
16. Crimea: Its Politics, Economy, and Resources
- Author:
- Yulia Tyshchenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This article examines certain questions and challenges pertaining to the Russian Federation’s illegal annexation of Crimea in the domains of security and the violation of both property rights and human rights, abuses of which are systemic in the region. The issues I will discuss, pertaining to the illegal nationalization of private and state property in the annexed region of Ukraine, are problems that entangle the Russian Federation in complex land relations, which have the potential to fuel conflict. This article examines human rights violations linked with the annexation of the Crimea. Problems have arisen concerning the persecution of different ethnic and national groups—namely, Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians—by Crimean and Russian authorities. Currently, both Ukraine and the international community lack significant opportunities to influence Crimea’s politics and economy.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Human Rights, International Political Economy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
17. Before "DarkSeoul" Becomes "DestroySeoul"
- Author:
- Ye Ra Kim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Growing dependence on ever evolving information technology and continuous occurrence of cyber- attacks against nations demonstrate the need for solid security strategy in cyberspace. South Korea, a country keen to explore benefits brought by the Internet, has suffered a heavy blow from a series of North Korea's cyber-attacks in the past. This paper analyzes the 2013 March 20 cyber-attack against South Korea in detail and sheds light on the fast developing cyber capabilities of North Korea. The severity of the March 20 attack which simultaneously targeted major banks and broadcasters in the country spread panic through South Korea. The malware used in the attack was later nicknamed "DarkSeoul" because of the repetitive use of the term in the malware programming source. The attack illustrates the changing nature of the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, reflecting the need for a new concept of national security in which cyberforce plays a critical role.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
18. A People of War or Peace? Americans' Attitudes Towards the Use of Military Force Abroad in Terrorist and Conflict Situations
- Author:
- Emanuel Boussios
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This exploratory research presents the results of a March 2011survey of a random sample of 217 adults on their attitudes towards the use of force as a foreign policy alternative. This research note examines the social characteristics of those people who are more or less likely to support intervening in hypothetical foreign conflicts in situations in which the United States' national interests may or may not be at stake. The research reported here was aimed at answering several questions including: are there some demographic groups who are more likely to support intervening in foreign conflicts even when U.S. national interests are not necessarily at stake? I find that dispositional preferences interact with opinion about the geopolitical situation to determine whether military force is an acceptable option. The survey incorporates various foreign pol icy and terrorist scenarios. Findings include the following: I support the findings of others in that Democrats, liberals, and women are less likely to support military force as a foreign policy option. Using multivariate regression analysis it was also found that certain respondent dispositions, such as "value placed on human life," were more likely to constrain policy preferences. I also find conflicting support for the casualty hypothesis. In general the more casualties mentioned in a scenario the les s likely Americans are to support the use of force, with a notable exception here among "hawks". I also find this is true for civilian casualties.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
19. Whack-a-Mole or Coup de Grace? Institutionalization and Leadership Targeting in Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Austin Long
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- War is fundamentally a clash of organizations. Organizations provide the vital mechanisms that mobilize and convert resources into combat power as well as applying that combat power against the enemy. This is true not only of conventional militaries, but also of insurgent and terrorist groups. Organizational capacity is thus a crucial determinant of success in conflict. Stephen Biddle, for example, attributes heavy causal weight for success in modern conventional military conflict to the relative capacity of military organizations to employ a set of techniques he terms “the modern system.” Philip Selznick argues that organization is equally crucial for success in political combat, where subversion of other organizations is as important as brute force.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
20. Stall Speed: Assessing Delay of the Iranian Nuclear Program via Israeli Military Strike
- Author:
- Austin Long
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- The possibility of Israeli military action against the Iranian nuclear program has existed since at least 2002. However, beginning in the fall of 2011, Israeli rhetoric and international concerns about military action against Iran have reached unprecedented levels. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak began to proclaim that Iran was nearing a “zone of immunity” to Israeli attack and therefore Israel would have to act soon. In contrast, former heads of Israel's foreign and domestic intelligence services question the utility of such an attack.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel
21. Presidential Power In An Age Of Terror
- Author:
- Abraham Wagner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- For most of the nation's history, questions about Presidential or executive power have not been constant, but they have certainly been recurring. At the outset of the republic, the nature of the chief executive was a matter of substantial concern to the founding fathers and a matter of considerable debate at the time of the Constitutional Convention. The early days under the Articles of Confederation had not gone all that well, and the hope of the Constitution's authors was to draft a more viable plan for a democratic government. Following 1789, the first years of the Republic were largely an experiment in democracy, characterized by a series of relatively weak presidents prior to Lincoln, presiding over a very small federal government that faced issues that were not as grave as that ones to follow in Lincoln's time and afterwards.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
22. Force in Our Times
- Author:
- Robert Jervis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent world politics displays two seemingly contradictory trends: on one hand, the incidence of international and even civil war shows a very great decline, but on the other hand the US, and to a lesser extent Britain and France, have been involved in many military adventures since the end of the Cold War. The causes are numerous, but among them are the unipolar structure of world politics, which presents the US with different kinds of threats and new opportunities. Central also is the existence of a Security Community among the leading states. A number of forces and events could undermine it, but they seem unlikely to occur. Even in this better world, however, recessed violence will still play a significant role, and force, like other forms of power, is most potent and useful when it remains far in the background.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Cold War, War, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States and France
23. Civil War Outcomes
- Author:
- Roy Licklider
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to summarize the rapidly expanding literature on civil war outcomes, organizing it around three central questions, all of which remain under debate: (1) what are civil wars, (2) how do we know when they end, and (3) what can outsiders do to help end them and prevent their recurrence? It focuses on the normative and ethical issues involved in negotiated settlements to civil wars: do they reduce violence or not, do they encourage democracy or not, the conflict between amnesty and justice which they often raise, and, if they are seen as desirable, when are they likely to occur and how, if at all, can outsiders support them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Human Rights, and War
24. The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny Not A Pound
- Author:
- Jack Snyder and Erica Borghard
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- A large literature in political science takes for granted that democratic leaders would pay substantial domestic political costs for failing to carry out the public threats they make in international crises, and consequently that making threats substantially enhances their leverage in crisis bargaining. And yet proponents of this audience costs theory have presented very little evidence that this causal mechanism actually operates in real—as opposed to simulated—crises. We look for such evidence in post-1945 crises and find hardly any. Audience cost mechanisms are rare because (1) leaders see unambiguous committing threats as imprudent, (2) domestic audiences care more about policy substance than about consistency between the leader's words and deeds, (3) domestic audiences care about their country's reputation for resolve and national honor independently of whether the leader has issued an explicit threat, and (4) authoritarian targets of democratic threats do not perceive audience costs dynamics in the same way that audience costs theorists do. We found domestic audience costs only as secondary mechanisms in a few cases where the public already had hawkish preferences before any threats were made.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, Political Theory, and Public Opinion
25. Free Hand Abroad, Divide And Rule At Home
- Author:
- Jack Snyder, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Yaeli Bloch-Elkon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Under unipolarity, the immediate costs and risks of war are more likely to seem manageable for a militarily dominant power like the U.S. This does not necessarily make the use of force cheap or wise, but it means that the costs and risks of the use of force are comparatively indirect, long-term, and thus highly subject to interpretation. Unipolarity, combined with the opportunity created by September 11, opened a space for interpretation that tempted a highly ideological foreign policy cohort to seize on international terrorism as an issue to transform the balance of power in both the international system and American party politics. This cohort's response to the terrorist attack was grounded in ideological sincerity, but also in the routine practice of wedge issue politics, which had been honed on domestic issues during three decades of partisan ideological polarization and then extended into foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, International Political Economy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
26. Are American Civil-Military Relations Still A Problem?
- Author:
- Richard Betts
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Since Huntington wrote, major changes have occurred in the United States' external security environment and domestic political institutions. These have not fundamentally changed the nature of civil-military relations. The enduring issues are tensions over the military preference for overwhelming force, and over the boundary between military expertise and political authority. Since Huntington wrote, the problem of civil-military relations has proved more modest and manageable than many feared it would be, not clearly worse or more dangerous than conflicts between political leaders and other government bureaucracies. The realistic solution is not a rigid application of either of Huntington's ideal types, but pragmatic compromises that tilt in favor of "objective control." Critics of objective control have neglected the extent to which civilian mistakes in making strategy rival the military's. They have neglected to confront the arguments against subjective control, in part because they focus on limitations of objective control for optimizing the functional imperative, or because they misjudge the dangers posed by newly overt partisanship of the officer corps, dangers that would only become acute if subjective control becomes the norm.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and Civil Society
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
27. Iraq, the U.S., and the Region after an American Withdrawal
- Author:
- Robert Jervis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- The US will leave Iraq at some point, and needs to plan for this eventuality. There are many uncertainties involved, but taking them seriously is the first step toward being able craft a policy that will reduce the damage to us, Iraq, and the region. Even if the US stays until the violence is brought down, its departure will lead to the reopening of local and regional bargains because of the lack of enforcement. The greatest danger is that heightened civil war will lead to intervention by Iraq's neighbors, but the very possibility of large-scale violence creates possibilities for arrangements to avoid it because all of the parties know that they could lose badly if things get out of control.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East
28. The Individual Sources of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from Survey Data
- Author:
- Pablo Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Political leaders in troubled democracies around the world have resorted to an anti-foreign rhetoric to justify the adoption of policies restricting foreign imports, and the free flow of capital and people, allegedly in defense of the national interest. And this rhetoric has resonated positively with large sectors of the electorate in those countries. A similar trend, exploiting a nationalistic sentiment for economic purposes, is observed in campaigns in the United States to buy American. Most studies to date have analyzed the causes and consequences of economic nationalism at the state level. However, there is good reason to believe that sources of economic nationalism should be traced at the individual level: some individuals might be willing to embrace economic nationalism purely on self-interest, yet others will be forced to trade off material and ideational preferences in order to support the national industry. The existence of this tradeoff at the individual level has important implications for coalition formation on trade, investment and migration policy-making. While recent studies suggest that cultural and ideational interests are likely to influence individual attitudes towards trade, one of the central policy dimensions in economic nationalism, the empirical content of the tradeoff between material and non-material preferences remains untested to date. Using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP 2003) we explore whether the effect of nationalism on attitudes towards protectionism varies with the individual's position in the economy. We find preliminary evidence that nationalism systematically affects attitudes towards trade in the United States, but less so in the Philippines. We also find that the effect of nationalism is conditional on individuals' skill, or position in the economy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Economics, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Philippines
29. Democratization and Civil War
- Author:
- Jack Snyder and Edward Mansfield
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Many observers have argued that promoting democracy abroad promotes peace. Mature, stable democracies have not fought wars against each other, and they rarely suffer from civil wars. But the path to the democratic peace is not always smooth. We argue that during the initial phase of a democratic transition, states face a heightened risk of civil war. When authoritarian regimes break down, a panoply of elite factions and popular groups jockey for power in a setting in which repressive state authority has been weakened, yet democratic institutions are insufficiently developed to take their place. This can lead to civil war through the lack of institutional means to regulate or repress factional strife. We test this argument by conducting a statistical analysis. The results indicate that countries in the initial stages of democratization are more than twice as likely to experience civil war as are stable regimes or regimes undergoing a transition to autocracy. Then we discuss the causal mechanisms linking democratization and civil war in cases drawn from the statistical analysis. These findings underscore the risks in trying to promote peace through democratization in countries that lack the institutions to contain factional and communal conflicts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
30. Just Deserts in Iraq: American Vengeance for 9/11
- Author:
- Linda J. Skitka and Peter Liberman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- In January 2002 national survey data, we find a strong relationship between Americans' desire to avenge 9/11 and their bellicosity toward Iraq, even after controlling for the perceived terrorist threat, left right ideology, and approval of U.S. political leaders. This effect could have been due to suspicions of Iraqi complicity in 9/11 stemming from prior enemy images of Iraq, or to the effects of anger and desires for revenge on out-group antipathy, displaced blame, and optimistic assessment of war risks. We test the out group antipathy hypothesis and find evidence that anti-Arab and anti-Muslim antipathy partially mediated vengefulness's effect on bellicosity. Vengeance, in turn, was boosted by retributiveness (proxied by rightwing authoritarianism) and patriotism. While perceptions of the Iraqi threat probably assumed greater importance over the course of the following year, additional survey data shows that even as war approached, most supporters acknowledged it would satisfy a desire for revenge.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arabia
31. Fortune or Evil? The Effects of Inward Foreign Direct Investment on Corruption
- Author:
- Pablo M. Pinto and Boliang Zhu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and grand corruption in host countries. We argue that the effects of FDI on government corruption are conditional on the host country's underlying economic and political climate: FDI will be associated with higher corruption levels in political and economic environments where competition is restriced. We adopt an empirical strategy aimed at dealing with the underlying endogeneity problem. We construct an instrument for inward FDI based on a measure of remoteness. We test our hypotheses on the conditional effects of FDI on corruption in an instrumental variable two-stage least-squares setting, finding preliminary support for our argument: the effect of FDI on corruption is positive in authoritarian and poor countries, and turns negative as countries develop and become more democratic. We also find that the marginal effect of FDI on corruption in democratic and rich countries is smaller.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Development, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
32. The Individual Sources of Economic Nationalism: Evidence From Survey Data
- Author:
- Pablo M. Pinto and Carmen M. Le Foulon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Political leaders in troubled democracies around the world have resorted to an anti-foreign rhetoric to justify the adoption of policies restricting foreign imports, and the free flow of capital and people, allegedly in defense of the national interest. And this rhetoric has resonated positively with large sectors of the electorate in those countries. A similar trend, exploiting a nationalistic sentiment for economic purposes, is observed in campaigns in the United States to buy American. Most studies to date have analyzed the causes and consequences of economic nationalism at the state level. However, there is good reason to believe that sources of economic nationalism should be traced at the individual level: some individuals might be willing to embrace economic nationalism purely on self-interest, yet others will be forced to trade off material and ideational preferences in order to support the national industry. The existence of this tradeoff at the individual level has important implications for coalition formation on trade, investment and migration policy-making. While recent studies suggest that cultural and ideational interests are likely to influence individual attitudes towards trade, one of the central policy dimensions in economic nationalism, the empirical content of the tradeoff between material and non-material preferences remains untested to date. Using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP 2003) we explore whether the effect of nationalism on attitudes towards protectionism varies with the individual's position in the economy. We find preliminary evidence that nationalism systematically affects attitudes towards trade in the United States, but less so in the Philippines. We also find that the effect of nationalism is conditional on individuals' skill, or position in the economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Nationalism, and Culture
- Political Geography:
- United States
33. Reputation and War: Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict
- Author:
- Barbara F. Walter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Between 1940 and 1996, governments were seventy percent less likely to negotiate with rebels seeking independence or greater territorial autonomy than with rebels seeking any other goal. Current theories suggest that this is due to the economic, strategic, or psychological value of territory under dispute. I argue that a government's decision to negotiate has more to do with the signal the government wishes to send to future challengers than with any specific characteristics of the land in question. If the government believes it could face multiple separatist challenges in the future, it will invest in a reputation for toughness now rather than face additional challengers down the road. If the government knows it will face such a challenge only once, there is less reason to invest in a reputation and negotiation is likely to result. An analysis of all self-determination movements between 1940 and 2000 demonstrates that governments of multiethnic states are far less likely to negotiate than are governments that preside over more homogenous populations.
- Topic:
- Security, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. Democracy and Military Intervention: Challenges and Opportunities
- Author:
- Daniel Byman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration entered office skeptical of using the U.S. military to build democracy. Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's National Security Advisor, wrote before the election that: "The President must remember that the military is a special instrument. It is lethal, and it is meant to be. It is not a civilian police force. It is not a political referee. And it is most certainly not designed to build a civilian society." Despite this skepticism, policing, building a civilian society, and other tasks inherent to democratization were quickly thrust upon the Bush administration. Even before the fall of the Taliban, the United States and its allies began trying to shape a new government to take power in Kabul. And today, as the United States and its allies move to topple Saddam's regime, they are grappling with how to create a stable and democratic future for Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Taliban, and Kabul
35. Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurrent Civil War
- Author:
- Barbara F. Walter
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to explain why some countries experience recurring civil war while others do not. It argues that renewed war has less to do with the attributes of a previous war, as many people have argued, and more to do with the incentives individual citizens have to join rebel groups at any given point in time. Civil wars will have little chance to get off the ground unless individual farmers, shopkeepers, and workers choose to enlist in the rebel armies that are necessary to pursue a war, and enlistment is likely to be attractive when two conditions hold: the status quo for the average citizen is perceived to be worse than the possibility of death in combat, and there is no non-violent outlet for political change. An analysis of all civil wars ending between 1945 and 1996 suggests that improvements in basic living conditions and in the average person's access to political participation have a significant negative effect on the likelihood of renewed war. Countries that are able to increase the economic well-being of their citizenry, and create a more open political system are less likely to experience multiple civil wars regardless of what happened in a previous conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus