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1. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?

Author:
Ryan C. Berg
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
Topic:
Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

2. Europe’s last chance: How the EU can (and should) become the indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration

Author:
Ryan C. Berg and Jorge González-Gallarza
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The EU’s current policy approach toward Venezuela is insufficient to contribute meaningfully to a political transition in the country and protect human rights. Oftentimes, the EU’s policy has been at odds with the US, having permitted unrelated disagreements to cloud its recognition of its strategic interest in a free, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela. The Nicolas Maduro regime’s illicit investment schemes have found fertile ground in the EU at large, with a particular hotspot in Spain. A torrent of investments and acquisitions has allowed corrupt cronies in Maduro’s entourage to engage in unfathomable kleptocracy and stash their ill-gotten gains in the eurozone, vitiating the rule of law in the process. The EU consistently underappreciates the Maduro regime’s multi-faceted security threat, which intersects with and compounds many of the EU’s greatest geostrategic challenges in the post-COVID-19 landscape. China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia are all at once strategic rivals of the EU and enablers of the Maduro regime’s threat to its security. The Joe Biden administration’s commitment to multilateral engagement in Venezuela offers the EU a chance to reclaim transatlantic cooperation and present a common vision for political transition in the country. Beefing up sanctions and developing a coordination mechanism, as well as drumming up humanitarian aid, would constitute serious progress and potentially thrust the EU into the role of indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Sanctions, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, Spain, and Venezuela

3. Brazil and Mexico: Hope or hype?

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and Felipe Trigos
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Key points in this Outlook: Key Latin American governments, such as Brazil and Mexico, must adopt economic, fiscal, and energy policies that will maximize job creation, sustainable growth, and energy self-sufficiency. The performance of Latin American economies has a disproportionate effect on US prosperity, heightening the costs of the Obama administration’s indifference toward the region. The American economy will benefit from more vigor and vision as US policy encourages economic partnerships with Latin America that cultivate a healthy private sector, energy interdependence, and greater competitiveness in a global market.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and Mexico

4. Honduras under siege

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and José Javier Lanza
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As stepped-up counternarcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico have increased pressure on regional drug trafficking networks, organized crime syndicates have relocated operations to Central America, where law enforcement agencies and institutions are ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught. These multibillion-dollar gangs are making common cause with some local politicians who are following a playbook honed by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. The result in Venezuela was the birth of a narcostate, and similar dramas are playing out in Central America. Like Chávez, caudillos are using the democratic process to seek power, weaken institutions, and undermine the rule of law—generating turmoil that accommodates narcotrafficking. Making matters worse for Honduras is that left-wing activists abroad, in support of ousted president and Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya, are waging a very public campaign of outlandish claims seeking to block any US assistance to help the Honduran government resist the drug cartels. It is imperative that US policymakers vigorously support democracy, the rule of law, and antidrug programs in Honduras.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, and Mexico

5. Argentina’s Race to the Bottom

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and José R. Cárdenas
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Argentina is the poster child for economic dysfunction in the Americas and stands as a cautionary tale of the perils of populist economics. The International Monetary Fund’s recent unprecedented censure of the Argentine government for cooking inflation figures is only the latest installment in a long fall from grace for what was once one of the world’s most productive economies. Moreover, under the presidencies of Néstor and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina has alienated traditional allies such as the United States while reorienting its foreign relations toward radical outliers like Venezuela and Iran. US policymakers must continue to hold Argentina accountable for its failures to abide by its obligations to international financial institutions and work to thwart Argentina’s troubling alliances with rogue governments.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Monetary Fund, and Populism
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

6. Latin American energy monopolies: Boom or bust?

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and Felipe Trigos
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
At a time when several Latin American economies should be “firing on all cylinders” to sustain growth and development, their critical petroleum sectors are underperforming. Despite hopeful projections, the biggest energy companies in Latin America are controlled by the state and are hampered by government interference and short-term political agendas. Although these companies should be the engines of growth for their national economies, resource nationalism and popular gasoline subsidies limit these companies’ abilities to evolve into more efficient, competitive, and profitable enterprises. Brazil’s Petrobras, Mexico’s Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), and Venezuela’s Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) are energy giants that are being consumed by mismanagement, corruption, and political agendas. For these companies to maximize their productivity and competitiveness and thereby deliver greater benefits to their countries, they should pursue professional management, transparency, and free competition with private companies and should open themselves to foreign capital and technology.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Business, and Monopoly
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

7. An action plan for US policy in the Americas

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and José R. Cárdenas
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As US policymakers struggle to overcome sluggish economic growth while confronting abiding security threats, there is a stronger argument than ever for fortifying US partnerships with countries in the Americas whose economies and security are intertwined with America’s own economy and security. While the United States has been preoccupied with other regions, most Latin American nations have continued to modernize their market economies; two nations in particular—Brazil and Mexico—are emerging as global players. Therefore, the time is right to restore a strong bipartisan consensus in the United States that promotes a constructive, free-market growth agenda in the Americas. Practical initiatives—not rhetoric—will encourage America and its neighbors to find common ground for their collective benefit.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Economy, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

8. La lucha por el futuro: El veneno del populismo y la cura de la democracia

Author:
Robert F. Noriega
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Mientras que la atención del mundo está centrada en la lucha contra Irak y el ascenso de China, se está librando una batalla por el alma de las Américas más cerca de nuestro país. En términos simplistas, esta confrontación podría describirse como una lucha de poder entre la visión del presidente de Estados Unidos, George W. Bush, y la visión de quien se autoproclamó su némesis, el presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez. Igualmente engañosas son las caracterizaciones que describen esta situación como un enfrentamiento entre la izquierda y la derecha, los ricos y los pobres, el norte y el sur. Pero ésta no es una batalla entre dos líderes poderosos o entre las ideologías de la izquierda y la derecha. La lucha que se está librando en el hemisferio occidental concierne a la democracia en sí: ¿puede satisfacer a un público impaciente? Por un lado, están los líderes de la izquierda y la derecha que consideran que las instituciones democráticas y el Estado de Derecho son indispensables para la prosperidad y la libertad.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Populism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

9. Mexico at an Impasse

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
ecent events elsewhere in Latin America–specifically, an acute political crisis in Venezuela and a groundbreaking election in Brazil–have pushed Mexico off the front pages of American newspapers. Nonetheless, it is worth remembering that Mexico, our closest and most important Latin neighbor, is a major customer for our products and the source of many essential imports, most notably oil and gas. It is also a country with which we have intense cultural and human relations, far more indeed than most Americans realize. Its progress toward becoming an open and more modern society therefore deserves far more attention. President Vicente Fox is nearing the midpoint of a six-year presidential term. The next major marker will be elections in July concerning all the seats in the lower national legislative chamber, all the governorships, and the legislative assemblies in eleven of Mexico’s thirty-two states.[i] These elections inevitably will be interpreted in part as a referendum on Fox’s administration–the first drawn from an opposition party in more than seven decades. At the same time, they will tell us to what degree the ousted Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has managed to reinvent itself and become nationally competitive in a more pluralistic and open environment.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Immigration, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Mexico

10. A New Era in Mexico?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Last July, Mexico underwent a medium-sized political earthquake—it elected Vicente Fox, candidate of an opposition alliance, to a six-year presidential term. In so doing, it ended seventy-one years of hegemonic rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and unleashed a host of possibilities for the nation’s future. What are those possibilities, and what do they mean—for Mexico and the United States? The truth is that nobody—not even veteran Mexico-watchers—is quite sure. Fox himself is a man of paradox: His relationship with his own party is ambiguous, to say the least, and the platform on which he ran points both left and right, as do his cabinet appointments. Moreover, Mexico itself, long in the thrall of a kind of benevolent authoritarianism, is new to the art of divided government. While there may be some changes in the relationship with the United States, tensions and conflicts based on history, geography, and the vast asymmetries of wealth are bound to persist.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Elections
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

11. An Emerging Populist Threat?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On May 14, Jackson Diehl, the deputy foreign editor of the Washington Post, raised an intriguing question in an op-ed for that newspaper: Is Latin America about to “drift back toward its one-time status as semi-hostile territory for the United States”? Some of the evidence he cited was certainly enough to give pause. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, that country’s former Marxist president—voted out of office in 1990—seemed poised to finally regain power later this year. In Peru, Alan García, the leftist-populist windbag—the consummate Latin demagogue, almost a caricature of the type—who drove his country to the verge of collapse in the 1980s, has reemerged as a presidential possibility in a runoff scheduled for June 3. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perennial standard-bearer of the Left, is leading in the polls for next year’s presidential race. “Even in El Salvador,” Diehl writes, President Bush “may see the election of former FMLN guerrillas.” As to Venezuela, the machinations of its president, Hugo Chávez, hardly require comment; he makes no secret of the fact that his principal foreign policy objective is to forge a new, worldwide, anti-U.S. alliance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Populism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

12. Venezuela’s Tinfoil “Revolution”

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
After forty years of politics as usual, Venezuela has suddenly become an object of curiosity to the world’s press. The reason is President Hugo Chávez, a forty-six-year-old former lieutenant colonel who first came to the attention of Venezuelans in 1992 when he and a group of other junior officers attempted to overthrow the government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Amnestied by Pérez’s successor, Chávez began a political career of his own, and in 1998, running as the candidate of the so-called Fifth Republic Revolutionary Movement (MVR), he was elected by a decisive majority. Two and a half years later, he is still an enigma—to Venezuelans, to the United States, and to everyone else. Given the centrality of his country to the oil producers’ cartel and, even more, given the current dependence of the United States on Venezuelan oil, he merits a closer look.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

13. Peru: Yet Another Transition

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Last November Peruvian politics were turned upside down by the revelation that the president’s security chief had been bribing members of congress, other prominent political personalities, and the media. The “smoking gun” was a series of filmed videos actually recording the shady transactions, involving millions of dollars in one of Latin America’s poorest nations. Popular indignation was so great that the president, Alberto Fujimori, diverted a flight to the Asia-Pacific conference in Brunei and went to Tokyo instead, where he precipitously claimed Japanese citizenship and asked for political asylum. At home, one of the strongest political machines in Latin America was dismantled almost overnight. Congress deposed the president, named an interim chief executive and prime minister, and called for new elections on April 8. Thus ends an era in Peruvian politics, one rich in paradox and moral ambiguity. What, one wonders, is next?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Corruption, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

14. Latin Democracy and Its (Increasing) Discontents

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Though summer is still with us in the northern hemisphere, Latin America languishes deep in the winter of its discontent. Ten years after the international scene was transformed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war, many Latin Americans have become disillusioned with their role in the new world order. The principal problem is that in spite of vigorous, in some cases drastic, market reforms, most of the region’s economies are in the doldrums. More to the point, in spite of a significant return of foreign investment to the area in the early 1990s, the number of Latin Americans living in poverty has increased. Public services have deteriorated or in some cases even disappeared. And crime is rampant everywhere, even in cities such as Buenos Aires, where until ten years ago inhabitants boasted-with reason-that their streets were safer at 3 a.m. than those of New York or Los Angeles in daytime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democracy, and Investment
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

15. Nicaragua on the Brink–of What?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On November 4, Nicaraguans will go to the polls to select a president, vice president, and all sixty-six members of their unicameral congress–an event that on its own merits would hardly deserve much attention on the part of foreign observers. But the drama unfolding in that tiny country is characteristic of many small (and not so small) Latin American countries today: the inability of democracy alone to address effectively some of the fundamental problems of society. Nicaragua also provides some interesting insight into the peculiar pathologies that afflict postrevolutionary states, and as such may provide some light on what we can expect in post-Castro Cuba and even, eventually, in post—Chávez Venezuela.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Nicaragua

16. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

17. Time to End the Certification Circus

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

18. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

19. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Latin America

20. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

21. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America