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58261. The Future of the Caucasus after the Second Chechen War

Author:
Michael Emerson, Nathalie Tocci, Bruno Coppieters, Alexandru Liono, Sergiu Celac, Brenda Shaffer, Thomas Waelde, Sergei Vinogradov, Armando Zamora, and Terry Adams
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The problems surrounding the Chechen conflict are indeed many and difficult to tackle. This paper aims at unveiling some of the mysteries covering the issue of so-called “Islamic fundamentalism” in Chechnya. A comparison of the native Sufi branch of Islam and the imported Wahhaby ideology is made, in order to discover the contradictions and the conflicts that the spreading of the latter inflicted in the Chechen society. Furthermore, the paper investigates the main challenges President Aslan Maskhadov was facing at the beginning of his mandate, and the way he managed to cope with them. The paper does not attempt to cover all the aspects of the Chechen problem; nevertheless, a quick enumeration of other factors influencing the developments in Chechnya in the past three years is made.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

58262. One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union

Author:
Daniel Gros and Carsten Hefeker
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
What policy objective should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union pursue? Should it base its decisions on the EU-wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national welfare losses based on national rates of inflation and growth? We find that a central bank that minimises the sum of national welfare losses reacts less to common shocks and that this can lead to higher average union-wide expected welfare, if the variability of common shocks is large relative to the inflation bias. But for countries with a transmission mechanism close to the average, welfare can actually be lower in this case. The inflationary bias depends on the interaction between the transmission mechanism and distortions in labour markets.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

58263. The International Trade of Multinational Firms: The Empirical Behaviour of Intrafirm Trade in a Gravity Equation Model

Author:
Kimberly A. Clausing
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Multinational firms are an increasingly important part of international economic integration. In recent years, foreign direct investment has been increasing at a rate that exceeds both the rate of growth of international trade and that of income. For many countries, the sales of affiliates of multinational firms have long dwarfed the value of trade. For example, in 1997, European Union country firms exported $283 billion in products to the United States. In the same year, affiliates of E.U.-based multinational firms sold $816 billion worth of products in the United States, almost three times the value of exports.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

58264. Technical Barriers to Trade in the European Union: Importance for Accession Countries

Author:
Paul Brenton, John Sheehy, and Marc Vancauteren
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With trade in industrial products between the EU and the CEECs now essentially free of tariff and non-tariff restrictions, the principal impact of accession to the EU on trade flows will be through access to the Single Market of the EU. A key element of this will be the removal of technical barriers to trade. In this paper we try and highlight the importance of technical barriers to trade between the EU and the various CEECs, distinguishing sectors according to the different approaches to the removal of these barriers in the EU: mutual recognition, detailed harmonisation (old approach) and minimum requirements (new approach). We utilise two sources of information on technical regulations: a sectoral classification from a previous study of the impact of the Single Market and our own detailed translation of EU product related directives into the relevant tariff codes. The analysis suggests that the importance of technical barriers varies considerably across the CEECs. The adjustment implications of access to the Single Market are likely to be greatest for those most advanced in their accession negotiations.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

58265. Goodbye, Agenda 2000, Hello Agenda 2003: Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures, and EU Net Balances

Author:
Michael Emerson and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper describes the development of the negotiations from the birth of the Agenda 2000 proposals to the end of the Berlin European Council Summit and discusses the consequences of the outcome. The study shows to what extent net contributions to the EU budget and narrow national interests dominated the negotiations, at the expense of the original aims of the reforms (to prepare the Union for enlargement and for the next round of WTO negotiations), which were practically forgotten. This type of behaviour is by no means unique. On the contrary, it has been recurrent in the history of the EU. Estimates of future expenditures and own resources show that the Berlin European Council conclusions will prove to be far from satisfactory.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Berlin

58266. Consumer Credit in the European Union

Author:
Nuria Diez Guardia
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This report analyses the European consumer credit markets and their regulation at European level. Its findings are as follows: European consumer credit markets are characterised by deep national differences and strong market segmentation. The report finds no generalised model of consumer credit from the analysis of statistical data. An Anglo-Saxon consumer credit model cannot be identified. The weight of consumer credit is far higher in the US economy than in the EU countries, including the UK. In the US, the share of consumer loans made by banks is much lower, securitisation of consumer credit assets is very developed and the share of revolving credit is much greater than in the EU countries. Nor is it possible, on account of the large differences in the use of consumer credit observed across EU countries, to identify a European model of consumer credit. Consumer credit is very widely used in Sweden, whereas it is underdeveloped in Greece and Italy. The use of consumer credit reaches comparatively high levels in Germany and the UK and an intermediate level in France and Spain. Lending to consumers is carried out through bank intermediation, crossborder provision is non-existent.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

58267. Assessing The Arab 'Yellow Light' On A Palestinian; Unilateral Declaration Of Independence

Author:
Kenneth W. Stein
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Clinton will again meet his two Camp David partners—though not yet in scheduled three-way talks during this week's Millennium Summit, six weeks after the conclusion of their inconclusive Camp David negotiations. In the August interval, each side sent leaders and diplomats jetting about Europe, Asia, and the Middle East offering their spin on what was offered at the summit, what went wrong, and what needed to be done next. In stark contrast to the effective news black-out that governed Camp David, world leaders have, over the past month, been pitched one, two, or even three sets of briefings about each side's views and where the negotiations should go from here.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arab Countries

58268. Israeli Politics And Camp David

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Domestic political considerations will be an important factor in Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's moves at Camp David. Although he would like to have one for a myriad of reasons, politically Barak does not need a deal. To the contrary, failure to reach an agreement could even bring his "big tent" coalition back from dead. Barak had hoped to have a broad government that included the religious parties behind him, having learned from the Yitzhak Rabin era that it was a mistake to have a narrow government relying on its Arab members to squeeze through Knesset confidence votes. But having lost the Jewish majority before his departure, the prime minister's critics will insist that the results of the Camp David summit are illegitimate. Undoubtedly, Barak will reject such assertions, pointing to his promise to hold a national referendum.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

58269. A Second Camp David Summit? Assessment And Prospects

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A decision whether to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at a reconvened Camp David Summit may be made next Wednesday, but as it stands now, the prospects seem very uncertain. President Bill Clinton is scheduled to hold separate meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat during the United Nations special Millennium Summit. Mindful of an array of ticking clocks, Washington would like to reconvene Camp David for a short and final session sometime during the second half of September. Yet, given the failure of the last summit in July, a generally recognized precondition for a revival of summitry is the prior resolution of almost all outstanding issues between the parties, in order to virtually guarantee the success of renewed negotiations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

58270. Camp David II Aftermath: Options For The Next Ninety Days

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the aftermath of Camp David II and with the start of the Knesset summer recess yesterday, there appears to be a 40-90 day "window" for Israelis and the Palestinians to determine whether a diplomatic breakthrough is still possible or whether the parties will move in alternative directions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia