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56651. Changing Oil

Author:
Norman Selley
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Black gold, as oil is sometimes called, has a double image. On the negative side crude oil is typically seen only when accidents occur – when it spills from ships, pollutes beaches or kills wildlife. The positive is taken for granted. Users rely on oil's refined products to power transport and heat or cool homes invisibly, as required. The twentieth century progressed hand in hand with increased usage of oil, in times of both war and peace, and can justifiably be described as the Oil Era.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, and Third World

56652. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism

Author:
Chen Yixin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

56653. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

56654. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

56655. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000

Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

56656. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

56657. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

56658. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000

Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

56659. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000

Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

56660. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States