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53581. International Financial Markets as Sources of Crises or Discipline

Author:
Thomas D. Willett
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

53582. Dueling with Uncertainty: The New Logic of American Military Planning

Author:
Carl Conetta and Charles Knight
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Examines how the new planning concepts and methods adopted by the Pentagon since 1992 have led to military requirements disproportionate to real threats and have supported overweening ambitions for the application of military power. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as “Inventing Threats.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United States of America

53583. Ethnopolitical Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the OSCE - An Interim Appraisal

Author:
Stefan Troebst
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Three levels or institutions have emerged as crucial within the OSCE framework for handling ethnopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe—the Permanent Council made up of the OSCE Permanent Representatives of the currently 55 participating States, the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities and the long-term missions which the OSCE maintains in over a dozen trouble spots. The OSCE shows considerable success indealing with ethnopolitical conflicts where away from its rivalry with the United Nations, NATO or the European Union it can set its sights somewhat lower — Chechnya, Crimea, the Baltic states, South Ossetia, Transdniestria, Macedonia and Eastern Slavonia. Here OSCE has succeeded in transforming conflicts that have broken out and in contributing to the prevention of future conflicts. However, major conflicts such as Bosnia-Hercegovina or Nagorny-Karabakh appear to be too unmanageable for OSCE’s still embryonic structures with its insufficient military know-how and low acceptance among major partners.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Institutions, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

53584. Prenegotiations: The Theory and How to Apply It to Balkan Issues

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The issues, the activities and the relations preceding the formal international negotiations have increasingly become an area of a special theoretic interest. The prenegotiation or the prenegotiation phase is part of the broader issue of the dynamic interactive process of international negotiations. The pace, the contents and the direction of the negotiation process is influenced by various factors: foreign-policy bureaucracy in the individual negotiating countries, the personal peculiarities of the very negotiators, the international-political environment of the on-going negotiations, etc. The system constituted by the interactive relationship of the negotiating parties is certainly one of these factors and all the prenegotiating activity before formal negotiations have begun does matter in shaping and understanding the actual negotiation process. Both the cooperative and the conflicting relations in Southeastern Europe have run into regulative problems part of which are caused by inadequate preparatory prenegotiation work. Examples of that are the deadlocked bilateral relations between Bulgaria and FYROM - The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; the incapacity to duplicate right away the successful agreement for the creation of the Multinational Peace-keeping Force of Southeastern Europe (MPFSEE) with an agreement of the place for the headquarters of this rapid-reaction force and an important confidence and security building measure in the worried Balkan region; the inadequate involvement in an informal way of counterparts from the FRY by broader multilateral Balkan fora to show how the developments in Kosovo are perceived by experts, the broader public and politicians in the neighbouring Southeast European countries; the slow process of historical rapprochements in the Balkan peninsula; the deadlocked Bulgarian-Romanian case of the construction of the second bridge over the Danube and many others. The Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS) continues its three-dimensional work of conceptualizing the post-Cold War political, social, economic and security situation in Southeastern Europe, of finding the adequate tools to cope with the existing issues and of moving more effectively to becoming a part of the Euroatlantic security community. An improved negotiation culture and capacity of all the players in the Southeast European region, including at the prenegotiation stage is a fundamental reason and motive of carrying out this study. It is hoped to be just a part of a broader research and educational activity in the field of international negotiations ISIS intends to carry out individually and in cooperation with other national and foreign partners - by traditional means and through the potential opportunities Internet presents for bringing closer more people together. Negotiating to prevent and manage conflicts in the Balkans, to cope with a vast array of post-conflict reconstruction and reconciliation issues as well as to channel the region-building activity in Southeastern Europe - all they necessitate an enhanced international negotiation potential for all actors in the area that ISIS is ready to stimulate, educate and catalyse. There is no doubt for the author of this study these three different kinds of negotiating activity in the Balkans have specific reflections on the prenegotiation activity and theory and vice versa - an issue that further needs to be scrutinized and thought over.
Topic:
Security, Negotiation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

53585. Fact Sheet: India and Pakistan—Current and Potential Nuclear Arsenals

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The decision by India to conduct five nuclear tests in May 1998 threatens to spark an all-out nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan have developed the capability to produce unsafeguarded weapon-grade plutonium and weapon-grade uranium (WGU) for nuclear weapons. However, until now, both countries have constrained their nuclear competition, preferring to keep their arsenals undeployed. In addition, Pakistan decided in the early 1990s to stop producing weapon-grade uranium, in essence capping its stock of material for nuclear weapons. India is widely perceived to have a significantly larger nuclear arsenal than Pakistan. The following estimate shows that if a nuclear arms race developed between India and Pakistan and Pakistan decided to resume WGU production, India’s overwhelming advantage could disappear.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Competition
Political Geography:
Pakistan and India

53586. Preventing a South Asian Arms Race

Author:
Kevin O'Neill
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
India’s five nuclear tests, conducted during the week of May 11, 1998, and indications from Pakistan that it may test nuclear weapons clearly show that international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in South Asia have failed. The Clinton administration, which quietly acknowledged the nuclear weapons-capability of India and Pakistan even before India’s tests, must now openly address a possible nuclear arms race on the subcontinent.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Arms Race
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

53587. Opinion: Netanyahu, A Palestinian State, and Israeli Security Reassessed

Author:
Jerome Slater
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
In one of our occasional opinion essays, JEROME SLATER discusses the arguments for and against a Palestinian state as the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. He argues that an appropriately structured Palestinian state would enhance rather than threaten Israel's national security.
Topic:
Security, Self Determination, History, and Zionism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

53588. The Internet and Political Control in Singapore

Author:
Garry Rodan
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
GARRY RODAN investigates the political implications of the Internet in Singapore, where authorities have embarked on an ambitious attempt to restrain the liberalizing impact of the new technology. His findings contradict popular expectations of the Internet necessarily aiding the erosion of authoritarian rule.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Internet, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Singapore and Southeast Asia

53589. The Politics of Reforming Social Security

Author:
R. Douglas Arnold
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
R. DOUGLAS ARNOLD analyzes the political difficulties in reforming Social Security in the absence of a short-term crisis. He argues that the chief political problem is to find a way to impose short-term costs on current taxpayers when the benefits of advance funding are exclusively long-term for future retires.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, and Social Security
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

53590. From Our Archives: A New Look at the Impeachment of Andrew Johnson

Author:
Michael Les Benedict
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
MICHAEL LES BENEDICT's interpretation of the impeachment of President Andrew Johnson destroys the conventional textbook wisdom which portrays Johnson as a martyred president unjustifiably pilloried by a vindictive Congress. Benedict shows that the decision to impeach was made reluctantly after a series of presidential actions over the years convinced even the most conservative members of Congress that impeachment was the only means left for defending their constitutional prerogatives.
Topic:
History, Impeachment, and Andrew Johnson
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America