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45522. The Crusade Against Counterterrorism
- Author:
- Travis Sharp and Matthew Irvine
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of International Security Affairs
- Institution:
- Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
- Abstract:
- Dana Priest and William Arkin's misguided quest to stop “secret America”
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- America
45523. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of “big-man” politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Arabia, Nigeria, and Zambia
45524. Stress-Testing South Africa: The Tenuous Foundations of One of Africa's Stable States
- Author:
- Assis Malaquias
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- South Africa's transition from apartheid to democracy in 1994 was expected to usher in a new era of peace, stability, and accelerated development. However, despite widespread optimism, political violence has persisted. Although a fraction of that experienced under apartheid, levels of political violence are worsening and indicative of the country's potential fragility. They also map out the fault lines along which South Africa may yet stumble.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Apartheid, Democratization, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa
45525. Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges After Qadhafi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the recent upsurge of violence dramatically illustrates, the militias that were decisive in ousting Qadhafi's regime are becoming a significant problem now that it is gone. Their number is a mystery: 100 according to some; three times that others say. Over 125,000 Libyans are said to be armed. The groups do not see themselves as serving a central authority; they have separate procedures to register members and weapons, arrest and detain suspects; they repeatedly have clashed. Rebuilding Libya requires addressing their fate, yet haste would be as perilous as apathy. The uprising was highly decentralised; although they recognise it, the local military and civilian councils are sceptical of the National Transitional Council (NTC), the largely self-appointed body leading the transition. They feel they need weapons to defend their interests and address their security fears. A top-down disarmament and demobilisation effort by an executive lacking legitimacy would backfire. For now the NTC should work with local authorities and militias – and encourage them to work with each other – to agree on operational standards and pave the way for restructured police, military and civilian institutions. Qadhafi centralised power without building a central state. His successors must do the reverse.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Africa
45526. Democracy index 2011: Democracy under stress
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- This is the fourth edition of the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy index. It reflects the situation as of the beginning of December 2011. The first edition, published in The Economist's The World in 2007, measured the state of democracy in September 2006; the second edition covered the situation towards the end of 2008; and the third as of November 2010. The index provides a snapshot of the state of democracy worldwide for 165 independent states and two territories—this covers almost the entire population of the world and the vast majority of the world's independent states (micro states are excluded). The overall Democracy index is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Countries are placed within one of four types of regimes: full democracies; flawed democracies; hybrid regimes; and authoritarian regimes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Politics
45527. Policy Concerns of Low Fertility for Military Planning in South Korea
- Author:
- Elizabeth Hervey Stephen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The South Korean military currently is the sixth-largest in the world. But years of low birth rates have resulted in declining numbers of young men available for military service, and the country now faces the pressing question of how to ensure national security in the face of inevitable troop reductions. Some options for offsetting this shrinking recruit pool (such as increasing fertility, increasing immigration, and increasing the number of women in the military) might seem obvious, but the complex economic, social, and cultural reality of South Korea make them unlikely to be embraced. The best focus for immediate action is to stabilize or increase service terms and to encourage development and implementation of high-tech security systems. While the recruit pool appears nearly adequate at present, South Korea must act quickly to develop the leaner, more diverse, and more technologically based military necessary for the country to maintain a viable military force.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, and South Korea
45528. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment
- Author:
- Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific
45529. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model
- Author:
- ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, and Israel
45530. Who Should Bear the Cost of China's Carbon Emissions Embodied in Goods for Exports?
- Author:
- ZhongXiang Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China's capital-intensive, export-oriented, spectacular economic growth since launching its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978 not only has created jobs and has lifted millions of the Chinese people out of poverty, but also has given rise to unprecedented environmental pollution and CO2 emissions. While estimates of the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade differ, both single country studies for China and global studies show a hefty chunk of China's CO2 emissions embedded in trade. This portion of CO2 emissions had helped to turn China into the world's largest carbon emitter, and is further widening its gap with the second largest emitter. This raises the issue of who should be responsible for this portion of emissions and bearing the carbon cost of exports. China certainly wants importers to cover some, if not all, of that costs. While China's stance is understandable, this paper has argued from a broad and balanced perspective that if this is pushed too far, it will not help to find solutions to this issue. On the contrary it can be to China's disadvantage for a number of reasons. However, aligning this responsibility with China does not necessarily suggest the sole reliance on domestic actions. In that context, the paper recommends specific actions that need to be taken internationally as well as domestically in order to effectively control the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China