Number of results to display per page
Search Results
57722. ODC Viewpoint - U.S. Trade Policy: Misreading the Developing World
- Author:
- David Weiner
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- U.S. trade leadership has suffered from a contentious policy debate that has left President Clinton without new fast-track trade negotiating authority since 1994. Disagreement over the impact of commerce with developing countries on jobs and the environment is at the heart of the trade quarrel, but that quarrel misreads what is happening in developing economies and what is achievable in negotiations with them.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
57723. The U.S. Perspective on Globalization
- Author:
- Stuart Eizenstat
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- The Overseas Development Council was prescient in calling for an international dialogue on globalization last year. It is a particularly important time for a dialogue on the relationship between globalization and development, given new concerns raised by the global financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
57724. Environment and Trade: A Framework for Moving Forward in the WTO
- Author:
- Gary P. Sampson
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Environmentalists and trade advocates have clashed frequently in recent years. Environmentalists argue that international trade rules restrict the legitimate use of trade measures to enforce environmental standards internationally and undermine environmental standards at home. Trade officials argue that trade measures are not the appropriate tools to dal with environmental problems, no is the World Trade Organization (WTO) the appropriate institution. They contend that environmentalists need to put their own house in order rather than resort to trade measures to achieve their objectives.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
57725. Croatia—Post-Tudjman Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Croatia is preparing for two elections—parliamentary polls on January 3 and, following the recent death of President Franjo Tudjman, a presidential contest on January 24. Thus, the population has an opportunity to choose real change, and to set Croatia firmly on the path of economic transformation and European integration, after a period of stilted political and economic development, marked by cronyism, under Tudjman. However, this scenario is by no means certain.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Eastern Europe
57726. Middle East—Renewed Peace Negotiations
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- It was exactly 18 years ago this week that former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin rushed from his hospital room, where he was being treated for a broken hip, descended on a surprised Knesset, and, within a few hours, forced through a bill imposing Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights. This same sense of urgency now animates Prime Minister Ehud Barak in his attempts to negotiate a peace agreement with Syria that will, perforce, require the abrogation of Begin's initiative.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Palestine
57727. Europe—Defence Cooperation
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- European defence cooperation will be a key issue at this week's European Council (EC) summit. It looks likely that ministers will agree that Europe should move towards an autonomous military capability independent of NATO. However, significant problems remain before these plans can be realised in operational terms.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57728. United States—Interest Rate Outlook
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate announced at the November 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was accompanied by the adoption of a neutral directive for the inter-meeting period, in place of the bias towards tightening in force since early October. The directive indicates that the Fed intends the rise to be the last of this year. However, the OECD, in its recent Economic Outlook, predicted that another one percentage point increase in the fed funds rate will be needed to restore demand and supply to equilibrium. While the economy will probably not slow sufficiently of its own accord, the incentives to defer action into 2000 mean that rates are likely to remain as they are during 1999, though probably associated with an announced bias towards tightening.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
57729. United Kingdom—Ulster Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) Council will meet on November 27 to deliberate the political understanding reached between First Minister-elect David Trimble and the Sinn Fein leadership. Trimble will probably achieve the level of support necessary for devolution to occur in Northern Ireland, by a narrow margin. However, significant political difficulties, remain to be addressed in the months following devolution. The medium-term prospects for the peace process will primarily depend on the IRA's approach to implementing its commitment to decommission.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
57730. Vietnam—Reform Outlook
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Despite Hanoi's repeated assertions of its commitment to reform, the gap between the government's stated policies and what happens on the ground remains as wide as ever. The root of this problem is the diffusion of power throughout the multiple layers of government and bureaucracy. There are no quick-fix solutions which will centralise political power. A combination of continued global economic integration and exposure to outside ideas, allied with the government's own initiatives in areas such as administrative reform, provide the most likely route to strengthening the central administration's power.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia
57731. Indonesia—New Government
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Compromise and accommodation are the watchwords of the new Indonesian government. During the past two weeks, the top legislative and executive positions have been distributed to the leaders of four of the country's five major political parties. The new cabinet, announced on October 26, continues this trend. Active and retired members of the military hold six seats, giving them a larger representation than any single political party. Not only President Abdurrahman Wahid, but all of Indonesia's political leaders, are hoping that by sharing power, rather than struggling for supremacy, conflict can be minimised and some measure of reform achieved. However, it is likely that governmental splits will emerge in the medium term.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
57732. Russia—Caucasian Consequences
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Russia's military operations in the North Caucasus have, so far, received broad domestic support and enhanced the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to the 1994-96 conflict. The difference can be explained by the successful characterisation of the enemy as terrorists combined with the low level of conscript casualties. Moscow politicians have united broadly behind the military strategy, with opposition limited to extreme reformist groups. Two key consequences emerge from this situation. Firstly, Putin's political future is tied to the continued success of the campaign. Secondly, the nationalist fervour sparked by the conflict has reduced international investor confidence and led to domestic calls for increased defence spending.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Caucasus
57733. Japan—Economic Recovery
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Pessimism surrounding the Japanese economy has lessened as, against most expectations, recovery continues to take hold. Analysts who predicted further contraction in Japan's GDP during fiscal 1999 have altered to a more optimistic outlook. The reason for this turnaround is a general change in perception of the recession. Rather than the downturn being part of a decade-long stagnation persisting since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1991, the recession was in fact of more recent origin and, therefore, of a less intractable nature than commonly supposed.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia
57734. Serbia—Opposition Division
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Daily demonstrations calling for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to resign have, over recent weeks, been poorly attended. In part this reflects the opposition parties' failure to resolve their differences. This has led to growing scepticism in the West about the Serbian people's ability to bring about political change. In these circumstances, the international community may alter its policy towards the country. However, greater efforts to support the democratic opposition could prove counter-productive in the short-to-medium term due to anti-Western sentiment in the aftermath of the NATO air campaign. In the longer term the West will need to reconsider its policy towards the Balkans if it wants to play a constructive role in regional democratisation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Balkans
57735. Argentina—Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The outright victory of the Alliance candidate, Fernando de la Rua, on the first round of voting in the presidential elections on October 24, reflects the desire for a change of political style. De la Rua's approach to government will be less personalist and more consensual than that of the outgoing president, Carlos Menem. While economic policy is unlikely to change in any fundamental way, the new government will be under pressure to root out corruption. It will be the first time since the return to civilian rule in 1983 that a government lacks a majority in either chamber of Congress, which may strengthen democratic institutions.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Argentina
57736. Indonesia—Military Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Indonesian army has, so far, failed to derail President BJ Habibie's plans for East Timorese self-determination. Nevertheless, military leaders have reasserted themselves as key players in domestic politics by imposing a high cost on politicians who fail to take sufficient account of their agenda. Civilian contenders for political power are actively courting army support. A likely consequence will be the emergence of a civilian-led government with close ties to the military. Opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri is the front-runner for the presidency, possibly with Army Chief General Wiranto as her vice-president.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
57737. United States—Senatorial Stability?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Debate surrounding the US elections in 2000 has centred on the contests for the presidency, and control of the House of Representatives. Far less attention has been placed on the partisan balance within the Senate. During the past two decades, the upper chamber has increased its influence over policy direction, a trend that appears likely to continue. Growing senatorial influence will act as a moderating force in US politics regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds a majority in the House.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57738. EU—Membership Indecision
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The attractions of the single european currency are likely to draw the Scandinavian countries into the euro-area by around 2003. However, the outlook for United Kingdom accession is complicated by differences in its economic profile compared with the rest of the euro-area, combined with its enduringly euro-sceptical public opinion. These factors are likely to postpone its accession until later in the decade.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
57739. Middle East—Peace Process Unfrozen
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Last week's signing of an Israeli–Palestinian agreement at Sharm al-Sheikh represents an important development in the search for a lasting settlement in the Middle East. The deal illustrates that it is possible to reach an agreement from which all parties will gain, while also exposing enduring problems. The progress made at Sharm al-Sheikh represents, as Nabil Shaath of the Palestinian authority described, an 'unfreezing' of the peace process. Whether the whole process can be infused with greater warmth depends firstly on US efforts to impel the Syrian–Israeli peace negotiations; secondly, it relies on the ability of the regional leaders to make the compromises necessary to reach a peace that all can present as a victory to their domestic constituencies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
57740. Russia—Dagestan Crisis
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The present incursion of Islamic rebels into Dagestan is not the prelude to a re-run of the Chechen war across the Russian periphery. However, it highlights Moscow's failure to adequately monitor developments in the North Caucasus region and the lack of military preparedness for dealing with internal rebellions. Despite the potential for increased violence, weak central government control is likely to prevail across the region, but only because for the majority of the local population, the alternatives appear even less palatable.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Russia and North Caucasus