Number of results to display per page
Search Results
54922. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
54923. Time to End the Certification Circus
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
54924. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America
54925. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
54926. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
54927. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
54928. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and United States of America
54929. Elite Circulation & Consolidation of Democracy in Poland
- Author:
- Jacek Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The paper examines two aspects of democratic consolidation-institution building and value consensus through analysis of the old and new elites in Poland. It argues that although Polish democracy is established and working, it has not been fully consolidated. Poland represents the case of a ·shallow consolidation," i.e., all elements constituting a consolidated democratic regime are in place, but relations among them do not form a coherent structure typical of mature democracies.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Elites, Consolidation, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland
54930. Unionists Against Unions: Towards Hierarchical Management in Postcommunist Poland
- Author:
- David Ost and Marc Weinstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Contrary to standard assumptions about union opposition to economic reform, our survey of firm-level deci sion makers in ninety-five manufacturing enterprises shows that Polish trade union leaders have strong pro-market leanings, and are profoundly skeptical of the utility of institutionalized employee influence in a market economy. This skepticism towards unions is shared by rank-and-file workers, as reported in other surveys. Industrial relations institutions in Poland are becoming less participatory and increasingly hierar chical according to a number of indicators, and this is due not just to coercion from above but acquies cence from below. At the same time, unionists in practice maintain a strong presence in non-private firms. This lingering employee influence stems, paradoxically, from a belief in property rights: unionists believe that private owners should be able to manage their assets as they choose, for this will allegedly benefit workers; but where private owners are lacking, unionists feel employees must act as temporary watchdogs. Long-term prospects for unions thus appear weak, and the weakness of institutions articulating labor inter ests can lead toward the delegitimation of democratic institutions in general. Finally, rational choice and historical institutionalist approaches are seen as unable to explain our findings. An ideational explanation appears to be the most plausible.
- Topic:
- Reform, Unions, Hierarchy, and Post-Communism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland
54931. The Democratic Control Of Armed Forces
- Author:
- Rudolf Joo
- Publication Date:
- 02-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Political control of armed forces is not a problem that has confronted only liberal democracies of the twentieth century. Even less is it an issue challenging only the democratizing societies of Central and Eastern Europe in the l990s. The crucial dilemma -- that a separate armed body established in order to protect a society might pose a threat to that same society -- goes back to antiquity. The ever-relevant question of who guards the guards was a central issue in Plato's dialogue The Republic, written about 2,500 years ago. Plato, in presenting what he considered to be the right order of society, described the military state as a deviation. Ancient Greece and the Roman Empire were both confronted with the dilemma `sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?' The question has remained the same over the centuries, but as armed forces and society have changed, the nature of the problem has also changed.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Greece
54932. Cutting Losses: Reflections On Appropriate Timing
- Author:
- Christopher R. Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
- Abstract:
- The field of conflict resolution has reached a point in its evolution where hunches and intuitive guesses are being transformed into testable theoretical propositions. Nowhere is this more important than in the debate about when conflicts are “ripe for resolution.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
54933. Palestinian Refugees and the Peace Process
- Author:
- Elia Zureik
- Publication Date:
- 05-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- As a discipline, refugee studies is of a recent vintage and very much influenced by the more established tradition of migration studies. Analysis of (voluntary) migration tends to focus on individuals rather than groups. To the extent that groups are considered, they are treated as aggregates of individuals rather than as cohesive social units in the sociological sense of constituting communities with shared common historical experiences (Shami 1993). In contrast with immigrant status, refugee status is the outcome of involuntary forms of migration, in which displacement is often caused by events beyond the control of refugees, such as internal and external wars, state policies of expulsion and exclusion, development projects, and natural disasters.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Migration, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
54934. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia
54935. Symposium on UN Global Conferences
- Author:
- Benjamin Rivlin, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Mehr Kahn, Jyoti Shankar Singh, Elissavet Stamatopoulou, Nitin Desai, John Mathiason, Waly N-Dow, and Paul M. Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 02-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
- Abstract:
- When the record of the United Nations during its first half-century of existence is remembered in history, the continuum of UN-sponsored global conferences from the "Children's Summit in 1990 to the City Summit in 1996" will emerge as perhaps the most important contribution of the organized world community to the furtherance of human well-being. Neither mentioned nor foreseen in the Charter of the United Nations, these global conferences represent a notable example of innovation that is possible within the framework of the Charter to meet the challenges posed by changing conditions and circumstances in the world.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations
54936. Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series
- Author:
- Jon Faust
- Publication Date:
- 12-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Education
54937. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle
- Author:
- Jon Faust and John S. Irons
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
54938. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter
- Author:
- Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
- Publication Date:
- 05-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance
54939. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson, Kari H. Eika, and Ragnar Nymoen
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden, and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables' effects on longer-term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
54940. Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves
- Author:
- Chan Huh
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are characterized by large associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance