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54862. Getting into the Black: Race, Wealth, and Public Policy
- Author:
- Dalton Conley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- DALTON CONLEY examines the causes and consequences of the black-white asset gap in the United States. He argues that it is wealth, more than any other measure of socio-economic well being, that captures the nature of racial inequality in the post-civil rights era. Conley discusses policy implications that may be used to address such "equity inequity."
- Topic:
- Race, Inequality, Public Policy, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
54863. Making the Grade 2000: Second Annual Review of Fissile Material Control Efforts
- Author:
- Kevin O'Neill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- A little over a year ago, ISIS initiated an annual review of fissile material controls covering a broad spectrum of initiatives. To do so, 19 separate initiatives were identified and assessed. Based on this assessment, grades were awarded on a scale of A, B, C, D, and F, where an “A” is excellent and an “F” is failing. Numerically, an “A” corresponds to a numerical grade of four, and an “F” to zero. The results of the first review were disappointing. Only 12 of the 19 initiatives received a passing grade of “C” or higher. The average grade of the initiatives was a “C”-showing an unfortunate level of mediocrity across the fissile material control agenda. In ISIS’s 2000 review, we found that the outlook is worse today than it was a year ago. Rather than make progress during the past 12 months, the overall fissile material control agenda fared poorly. The average grade of the identified initiatives fell from a “C” to a “C-minus.” This overall finding is borne out if one looks at the individual grades assigned to each of the 19 identified initiatives. ISIS judged that five initiatives remained essentially static, nine received lower grades, and five initiatives received higher grades.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Fissile Material, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54864. The Tobin Tax: How to Make it Real. Towards a Socially Responsible and Democratic System of Global Governance
- Author:
- Heikki Patomäki
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- In the 1970's James Tobin proposed a low rate tax on financial transactions of currencies. This tax would make many speculative movements unprofitable and the financial system less volatile and sensitive to daily political news and anticipation of economic policy changes. Consequently, it would create space for more autonomous economic policies of states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and United Nations
54865. Dealing with the Past: The Case of Estonia
- Author:
- Hanna Järä
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- An essential challenge facing a society in transition stems from the legacy of the former power elite. A compelling need to restore moral order by the assessment of the abdication of the rule of law and violations of human rights requires an opportunity to face the past and its consequences. The process of dealing with the past includes a strong commitment to revealing the truth and redressing the past. The critical question around the issue is what is considered a proper reaction towards leaders and perpetrators who were responsible for oppressive activities and other violations of human rights, many of whom remain part of the new political structures or hold important positions in public life. The central tension is between the politics of compromise, the essence of which is to leave the past intact, and the radical notion of justice. Thus, the key dilemma facing the emerging democracies is whether past violations should be forgotten or confronted, forgiven or prosecuted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Estonia
54866. Coming Home or Moving Home? "Westernising" Narratives in Finnish Foreign Policy and the Re-interpretation of Past Identities
- Author:
- Chris Browning
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War it is widely accepted that Finnish foreign policy has oriented increasingly towards the 'West', the most pertinent and concrete example of which, to date, has been accession to the EU. Implicit in many commentaries is the assumption that this orientation is a natural phenomenon, the natural culmination of an effervescent Finnish 'Western' cultural identity. Whilst the rhetorical style perhaps differs espousers of this view draw on Herderian and Hegelian assumptions, essentially arguing that after the unfortunate interruption and deviation from its true path occasioned by the Cold War the Finnish 'national spirit' is now back on its rightful historical and linear course to national fulfilment and blossoming. Looking into the nation's history such discourses see Finland's cultural and political roots as lying in the West and hence posit that with the break-up of the Soviet Union Finland is returning to these organic origins in Western civilisation, with all the effects for foreign policy such a 'Western' identity will entail. This is what we may term the 'Westernising' narrative of current debates about Finnish identity and Finnish foreign policy. On this basis the Finnish Cold War foreign policy of neutrality is characterised, either as having been a total aberration and betrayal of the Finnish 'Western' Self, or, and perhaps more commonly, as having been the best possible option available to the Finnish elite at the time: constrained by the dictates of power, agile Finnish political leaders were able to manoeuvre the Finnish ship of state through the various pitfalls and traps waiting to beguile them in the stormy waters of great power Cold War politics. Now free of such power dictates these current 'Westernising' discourses are attempting to push Finnish foreign policy towards the West, legitimising such a move to the Finnish public and the wider international audience on the grounds of Finland's claimed historical Western identity. To note the title of this panel discussion, “Defining New Identities Between East and West', for Westernising discourses there is no between about it. As an organically Western state why would Finland want to be between East and West any longer? On this basis the Finnish neutrality of the Cold War period merely disguised the true Finnish identity, a ruse so that Finland could in the future once more live as its true self when conditions once again permitted.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
54867. The EU and the prospects of Common Defence
- Author:
- Hanna Ojanen
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- When thinking of the overall image of the European Union, one would not first come to visualise soldiers with the twelve starlets on blue background on their uniforms. During its 40 years' existence, the Community/Union has consolidated itself in quite other fields: in agriculture, trade, competition policy. Its own portrait as the 'ever closer Union' has gained resemblance with reality, notably through the economic and monetary union and cooperation in justice and home affairs. Common foreign and security policy, then, has from the very beginning been a central aspiration in the process of integration. Many would, however, treat such a goal as some sort of idealism, a wish, and the recurrent formulas about the Union that should speak with one voice in international affairs as some sort of a mantra of the Europeanist faith. Even a cursory acquaintance with the CFSP shows the divergence between the member countries' views when it comes to essential questions of foreign policy and tends to convince that if such a policy was ever to become a reality, it would at least not imply real common defence or a transformation of the Union into a military alliance - particularly so since following the division of labour between the different international organisations, there are others than the Union to take care of military cooperation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54868. Blazing New Trails: Villagers' Committee Elections in P. R. China
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Though the Chinese Communist Party clings to its monopoly on power and fully intends to avoid “walking down the road of the Soviet Union,” it is implementing revolutionary political reform in the countryside. For the past decade, multi-candidate elections, in which candidates need not be members of the Communist Party, have been held in hundreds of thousands of Chinese villages. Abdicating its prerogative to appoint village chiefs, the Party has conceded that elected ones are more effective. The grassroots-level governance reform (jiceng zhengquan gaige) not only empowers ordinary citizens and encourages them to take part in the decision-making process. It also institutionalizes the concepts of accountability and transparency.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Soviet Union
54869. Crisis management the Finnish way – A state of the art report on practice and research
- Author:
- Raimo Lintonen
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this report is to analyse the threat perceptions, organisational contexts, practices as well as the “reflectiveness” of crisis management in Finland. The emphasis is on the overall situation, not on concrete historical crises. It is part of the groundwork for a project on the subject at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). The report is also an outgrowth of the participation of the FIIA since March 1999 in the evolving co-operation amongst European academics and practitioners in the field of crisis management.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
54870. The Korean Peninsula: Is Kim Dae-jung's Pursuit of a Korean Confederation Realistic?
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- In the spring of 1999 Swiri-fever swept South Korea. Millions flocked to see the first domestic action film considered up to international standards. “Swiri,” a slick Hollywood-style spy thriller, revolves around the complex issue of Korean unification that lies at the heart of Korea's future. Since the inauguration of President Kim Dae-jung in February 1998, South Korea has debated unification more openly than ever before.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
54871. Heterogeneity and Evolution of Expectations: a Model of Currency Crisis
- Author:
- Jasmina Arifovic and Paul Masson
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- A model of a portfolio allocation between mature and emerging markets is simulated with heterogeneous expectations, imitation, and experimentation. Solutions produce periodic crises. The predictions of the model are compared to a representative-agent, rational expectations model with multiple equilibria.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
54872. Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol
- Author:
- Martin Ross, Robert Shackleton, Peter Wilcoxen, and Warwick J. McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
54873. The Crisis in Asia: An Empirical Assessment
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The economies of South East Asia and Korea have been shaken by a financial and economic crisis that has enveloped the region since mid 1997. There are competing explanations for the cause of the crisis however most commentators would agree that a major shock that impacted on the countries has been a dramatic increase in the perceived risks of investing in these economies. This paper explores the impact of a re-evaluation of the risk in the Asian economies focussing on the differential real consequences of a temporary versus more permanent rise in risk. It contributes to our understanding of the possible consequences of the Asia crisis by applying a global simulation model that captures both the flow of goods as well as international capital flows between countries. The real impacts on the Asian economies of a rise in risk perceptions in the model are large and consistent with observed adjustment. However the spillovers to the rest of the world are relatively small because the loss in export demand that accompanies the crisis in Asia is offset by a fall in long term interest rates as capital flows out of Asia into the non-Asian OECD economies. Thus strong domestic demand in economies such as the US induced by the general equilibrium effects of the reallocation of financial capital can more than offset the consequences of lower export growth. The analysis also highlights the impacts on global trade balances reflecting the movements of global capital and points to both potential problems and lesson for policymakers over the coming years.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
54874. The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and KK Tang
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Despite the setbacks from the recent Asian currency crisis, the ascendancy of Asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century. A key issue that will shape the role of Asia, and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century, is the economic development of China. To date China has successfully weathered the currency storm in Asia and continues on a program of economic reform. If anything, the problems of Japan and Korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change. These lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives. Whether China can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy. In this paper, we explore the impacts of continued Chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within China as well as in the transmission of Chinese reforms to the rest of the world.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
54875. Regional and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the impact on economies of trade liberalization under alternative regional and multilateral arrangements: unilateral liberalization; liberalization as part of the ASEAN regional grouping; liberalization as part of the APEC regional grouping; or liberalization as part of a multilateral trade liberalization regime. The paper is based on a Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium model (DIGEM) called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model. It is shown that the long run gains from a country's own liberalization tend to be large relative to the gains from other countries liberalizing although this varies across countries. It is also shown that there is a significant difference between the effects on GDP (production location) and the effects on consumption per capita of the alternative liberalization approaches across countries. The timing of liberalization is also shown to matter. With open capital markets the gains from credibly announced trade liberalization are realized before the reforms are put in place because there is a rise in global investment which raises the global capital stock. In addition there is a reallocation of capital via financial market adjustment. This paper also demonstrates that for some economies, there can be short run adjustment costs to trade liberalization because resources cannot be instantly reallocated across sectors in an economy. These adjustment costs from own liberalization can be reduced if more countries also liberalize. The nature of the dynamic adjustment suggests that other macroeconomic policies may play an important role during the early period of phased-in trade liberalization.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
54876. Rapid Economic Growth in China: Implications for the World Economy
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and Yiping Huang
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past decade and its potential for strong growth into the foreseeable future have caused anxieties in the rest of the world. Some commentators see Chinese growth wholly in terms of competition for trade and investment opportunities with other developing economies and a major cause of structural adjustments in the advanced industrialized economies. In particular there have been warnings of severe consequences for international agricultural markets. In this paper we use a dynamic general equilibrium model called the G-CUBED model (developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen) to explore possible future paths of the Chinese economy based on projections of population growth, sectoral productivity growth, energy efficiency and technical change in the Chinese economy. This model captures not only the composition of the direct trade impacts of developments in the Chinese economy but also the implications of the endogenous flows of financial capital on macroeconomic adjustment in the world economy. The study focuses on the period from 1990 to 2020. Rather than being a problem for the world economy, we find strong growth in China is beneficial for the world economy directly through raising world incomes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
54877. The Transmission of Productivity and Investment Shocks in the Asia Pacific Region
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- An important aspect of macroeconomic interdependence in the Asia Pacific region is the adjustment of trade and current account balances in response to changes in saving and investment rates in individual economies. Greater trade flows, reliance on imported intermediate goods as well as more integrated capital markets imply that shifts in private or public saving and investment rates in an economy in the region can potentially have large impacts on other economies. This paper explores the quantitative nature of these linkages by focusing on a number of shocks within the context of a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (AP-GCUBED). This model integrates sectoral adjustment with macroeconomic interdependence including explicit treatment of capital flows to explore the implications of a variety of productivity and investment shocks in the Asia Pacific Region. The first shock considered is a permanent decline in private investment in Japan. The second shock is a temporary rise in total factor productivity growth in China. The fall in Japanese investment is found to have a significant effect on trade flows and financial flows in the region whereas the rise in Chinese productivity has a quite different effect on the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
54878. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?
- Author:
- Heather Smith
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
54879. The Macroeconomic Experience of Japan Since 1990: An Empirical Investigation
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper outlines the macroeconomic experience of the Japanese economy since 1990. The MSG2 multi-country model is used to determine the extent to which the strong yen and growth experience of Japan over this period was due to underlying trends in the Japanese economy and to what extent shocks such as changes in the settings of monetary and fiscal policies in Japan and overseas, as well as the Kobe earthquake, played a role. It is shown that many of the key features of the Japanese economy over this period can be attributed to inappropriate macroeconomic policy settings in Japan as well as reflecting long term trends due to population changes and a maturing of the Japanese economy. In particular, it is shown that announcing expansionary fiscal policy in advance of implementation and exaggerating the extent of actual stimulus, tended to appreciate the yen and raise long term real interest rates which further reduced real GDP growth over the period. The extent to which macroeconomic policy rather than entrenched structural problems can explain the experience suggests that future prospects for the Japanese economy are not as bleak as sometimes predicted. Growth is unlikely to return to the high levels experienced in previous decades because of the maturing of the Japanese economy and low future population growth in Japan. This paper projects growth to be sustainable at around 2.5% per year over the next decade and a continual appreciation of the yen in both real and nominal terms.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
54880. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Growth targets for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing countries should be part of the effort to mitigate global climate change. This policy brief advances an approach for determining appropriate targets. They should be neither so tight as to retard economic development nor so generous as to confer enormous windfall gains. But where in this range should these targets be set? A fair allocation for potential new participants would fit the present pattern of emissions reductions agreed among industrialized countries at Kyoto in December 1997. Richer countries, in effect, agreed to make bigger sacrifices (on average) than did poor ones. Given uncertainty about the future, however, fixing the precise quantitative emission target now would create great risks regarding the ultimate stringency of the target. It would raise concerns that a target could turn out either unexpectedly stringent—unintentionally constraining economic development—or unexpectedly lax—resulting in emissions greater than in the absence of an agreement. Indexing emission targets to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth would moderate the effects of uncertainty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Environment