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1. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:
Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:
11-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

3. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:
Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

4. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:
Denis Foretia
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

5. Advancing Gender, Climate, and Security in the UN Security Council: A Blueprint for Action

Author:
Jess Keller
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security presents recommendations for advancing gender, climate, and security in the UN Security Council and opportunities for Member States and other relevant stakeholders to drive progress on these interconnected challenges. Despite growing recognition of how climate change multiplies risk and poses a threat to international peace and security, efforts to make climate change a standing item on the Security Council’s agenda have failed. Climate change disproportionately impacts women and threatens their security, yet frameworks like the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda have been slow to integrate climate considerations into thematic resolutions and National Action Plans (NAPs) on WPS. The international community must rapidly scale-up efforts to bridge these policy gaps and holistically address challenges at the nexus of gender, climate, and security. This policy brief explores best practices and offers specific recommendations for the Security Council, Member States, and international actors to integrate gender-responsive climate considerations into global peace and security efforts. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Peace, UN Security Council, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Factsheet: Alice Weidel

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Alice Weidel is the co-chairwoman of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD), a far-right political party in Germany and the first far-right nationalist party to enter the German parliament since World War II. Under the leadership of Weidel, the party has become the second strongest force following the national elections in February 2025. Weidel has a long history of anti-Muslim statements and support for discriminatory policies targeting Muslims. She argues that Islam is incompatible with the German constitution and European values, and is also connected to several anti-Muslim actors.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Alice Weidel
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

7. Factsheet: Tomio Okamura

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tomio Okamura is a far-right Czech politician who founded the anti-elitist and anti-Muslim party, Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, SPD). He has made comments that promote anti-Muslim tropes and demonize Muslims and actively advocates for the Czech Republic to exit from the European Union. Following the 2024 European Parliament elections, Okamura joined the right-wing group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, which includes several political parties that support discriminatory policies targeting Muslims.
Topic:
Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Political Parties, and Tomio Okamura
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

8. Factsheet: Jordan Bardella

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Jordan Bardella is the party chairman of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) and also the leader of Patriots for Europe (PfE) for the legislative period of 2024 – 2029. In 2024, he ran for the office of the French Prime Minister. Bardella wants to “curb immigration” and warns “against Islamization.”
Topic:
Immigration, Islamophobia, Political Parties, National Rally (Rassemblement National), and Jordan Bardella
Political Geography:
Europe and France

9. Factsheet: Elon Musk

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Elon Musk is a billionaire entrepreneur and the CEO or top executive of multiple high-profile companies, including X (formerly Twitter), Tesla and SpaceX. He has a documented history of amplifying anti-Muslim tropes, supporting individuals and organizations that promote Islamophobia, and making statements that minimize or dismiss concerns about anti-Muslim racism. His actions and influence have contributed to the normalization of Islamophobic rhetoric in public discourse. In 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Billionaires, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

10. Factsheet: Tom Trento

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tom Trento is an American conservative activist who has a history of making anti-Muslim statements, including promoting a narrative that constructs Islam as a major threat to America. He is the founder and executive director of The United West, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an organization “stoking anti-Muslim hate for over a decade.”
Topic:
Conservatism, Islamophobia, Activism, Right-Wing Politics, and Tom Trento
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

11. Factsheet: Pete Hegseth

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News political commentator, author, and former Army National Guard officer who served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has tattoos that are associated with white nationalism and has a history of making Islamophobic statements. Hegseth has also been accused of sexual assault and has had several incidences of alleged sexist behavior. In 2025, Hegseth was confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Military, Pete Hegseth, and White Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

13. Factsheet: Mario Kunasek

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
IMPACT: Mario Kunasek is a member of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and is the current Governor of Styria. From December 2017 to May 2019, he was the Austrian Defense Minister under a coalition government of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and his own FPÖ. Kunasek has a long history of tying Muslims to terrorism, fearmongering about “radical Islam” and “Islamism,” and supporting anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and Mario Kunasek
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

14. AI Governance and Geopolitical Challenges: What’s Next after Italy’s G7 Presidency?

Author:
Federica Marconi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Profound technological developments have marked recent years, coupled with increasing geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation driven by rising tensions between major powers. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), have been at the core of global competition due to their potential for enhancing productivity and fostering innovation. The technological race has started to extend also to the definition of global AI governance frameworks, with the United States, the EU and China pursuing divergent regulatory approaches and striving to influence countries, especially in the Global South, that are looking at the existing models for their national regulatory systems. Against this backdrop, international fora such as the G7 are called upon to play a key role in fostering dialogue on how to reconcile these divergent perspectives and shape global governance for AI.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Governance, G20, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Italy and Global Focus

15. Italy’s Foreign Policy in the ‘Super-election Year’ 2024

Author:
Leo Goretti and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This document provides an English summary of the 2024 edition of IAI’s annual report on Italian foreign policy titled: “L’Italia nell’anno delle grandi elezioni”, developed with the support of the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. The 2024 edition of the report, edited by Ferdinando Nelli Feroci and Leo Goretti, features the contributions of a group of IAI researchers coordinated by the Institute’s Italian Foreign Policy programme. The report covers all the core areas of Italian foreign policy, beginning with the relations with the European Union and European allies and those with the US at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term. Specific attention is paid to the two major crises in the closest neighbourhood of the country, analysing Italy’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its position vis-à-vis the Israel-Gaza conflict. An in-depth focus is devoted to the government’s pivot to Africa under the umbrella of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, as well as the relations with the People’s Republic of China and the Indo-Pacific region at large. Structural policies are then addressed, from the defence and aerospace policy to the government’s approach to the energy and climate crises to migration policy. Finally, some considerations are made on the 2024 Italian G7 Presidency and the overall Italian involvement in multilateral fora.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Donald Trump, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

16. Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém: Italy’s G7 Presidency on Climate and Energy

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A main priority of the 2024 Italian G7 presidency was to build stronger partnerships with African countries across a number of policy areas, including climate and energy. Italy pushed forward several G7 initiatives to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and resource scarcity in developing regions as well as to enhance energy access in Africa. Despite the relevance of these pledges, it is still unclear how these initiatives can align with, and maximise the impact of, existing climate- and energy-related projects set out in other fora. Still, the Italian G7 was successful in shedding light on the need for stronger intersectionality in G7 processes – finance, climate, infrastructure, food – and in advancing synergies with parallel G20 and climate conferences of the parties (COP) discussions. Canada, South Africa and Brazil, respectively holding the 2025 G7, G20 and COP30 Presidencies, can build on the lesson of the Italian G7 presidency, especially in light of the decreasing attention that major powers such as the United States are paying to multilateral governance regimes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, G20, G7, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Italy

17. The G7 and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems’ Transformation: Lessons Learned from the Italian Presidency

Author:
Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy put a strong emphasis on food and nutrition security during its 2024 G7 Presidency, designing or scaling up plans to transform global food systems. Although the Italian presidency was able to gather consensus on key dimensions such as the food and climate nexus or development finance, structural weaknesses remain. Among them, the limited representation of Global South interests, the lack of space for civil society and farmers’ organisations in the decision-making process and the institutional rivalry between the Finance and the Development Tracks. While the G7 can more easily mobilise consensus and financial solutions to tackle global hunger, it has gradually lost ground to settings such as the G20 or the UN climate conference generally known as COP. The G7 must align its food-security solutions with those designed by other global partners (the G20 Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, or the EU’s Global Gateway) that can more effectively address food insecurity, while tackling all the barriers that make it too risky for local actors and the private sector to invest in sustainable agri-food systems transformation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, and G7
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

18. The New Partnership among Italy, Japan and the UK on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) launched by Italy, Japan and the UK in 2022 represents a novel partnership among the three countries for the development and production of a next-generation crewed fighter aircraft. A partnership based on equality of rights for and investments by the founding partners, as well as on the principles of Freedom of Action and Freedom of Modification at national level – that means full operational and technological sovereignty on the core platform, differently from the F-35 experience. As such, GCAP presents new challenges and opportunities in political, military and industrial terms, in addition to the programme’s tight schedule and high level of technological ambitions. The cooperation accelerated in 2024 with the establishment of a dedicated international governmental organisation to manage the programme, and the agreement on a joint venture among the three major companies involved on equal foot from the respective countries. This study provides an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the specific British, Italian and Japanese ways to GCAP, of the programme’s politico-institutional governance and industrial architecture, as well as of training issue and the cross-sectorial implications for Italy. Moreover, a dedicated chapter focuses on the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the US Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes in a comparative perspective. The conclusions outline 15 policy recommendations for Italy concerning GCAP.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and F-35
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

19. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:
Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

20. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:
Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:
Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:
History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

22. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:
Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

23. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:
Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

24. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

26. Do alternative households improve paid employment outcomes? A comparative analysis of same-sex partnerships in Brazil

Author:
Cicero Braga and James Heintz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper explores the labor market implications of household formation among same-sex married couples in Brazil, comparing them with different-sex married couples and unpartnered individuals. Using data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC) from 2016 to 2019, the study provides a descriptive overview of same-sex households and analyzes patterns of partnership formation, racial and educational endogamy/homogamy, and paid employment outcomes. Despite data limitations, findings suggest that same-sex couples may benefit from household formation by adopting alternatives to traditional patriarchal dynamics. Women in same-sex partnerships exhibit greater labor market participation and earnings, while men may experience reduced pressure to conform to traditional breadwinner roles. All married/partnered individuals earn a wage premium, relative to unpartnered individuals, but this premium varies by type of couple, sex, and the partner’s education and employment status. The paper highlights the importance of recognizing diverse household structures to fully understand economic well-being and inequities. Further research on the broader spectrum of "families of choice" is necessary to better capture the economic experiences of the LGBTI community in Brazil.
Topic:
Employment, LGBT+, Economic Inequality, Labor Market, Household, and Gender Roles
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

27. Investing in a Green Future: Finance, Industrial Policy and the Green transition

Author:
Ramaa Vasudevan
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
We present a framework to assess green climate finance and the pathways to building a climate aligned financial system. This would involve the strategic reorientation of central bank interventions, national development banks and multilateral and regional banks and coherent purposive collaborations between these institutions and interventions to decisively reshape the contemporary global financial system that is out of tune with the long-term imperatives of climate action. Aligning finance to climate goals at the necessary scale, pace and direction requires the calibration of financial flows across three axes: ‘public-private’; ‘real-financial’ and ‘national-international’. Along the first axis the naturedepleting, climate imperiling logic of short-term private profitability needs to be contained in order to pursue the public priorities of climate action. Along the second axis, policy efforts have to be geared to ensuring that financial flows are financing investments in climate mitigation and adaptation and not simply providing more fodder for the global portfolio glut and financial accumulation. Finally, along the third axis warding global funding and support on appropriate terms has to be provided to the most vulnerable countries while buttressing national ownership of the green mission.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The Distribution of Climate Finance among Annex-II Countries: A CBDR-RC Approach for Partial Funding of the Developing Countries

Author:
Shouvik Chakraborty
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Developing nations face the significant challenge of reconciling their efforts in climate change mitigation with the urgent need for financial resources to adapt to climate-related disasters, achieve sustainable development, and stabilize their economies. The financial requirements for addressing climate impacts span various sectors, including energy transition, energy efficiency, transportation, agriculture, forestry, other land use (AFOLU), and adaptation strategies. Estimates provided by reputable international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that the annual global climate finance needs may range from $4.2 trillion to $5.7 trillion. Within this framework, the share allocated to developing countries is estimated to constitute approximately $1.9 trillion to $2.0 trillion annually, mainly to support mitigation efforts. It is widely acknowledged that developing countries are unlikely to meet these financial demands independently. Consequently, it is projected that around $1 trillion must be sourced from advanced economies, particularly the AnnexII countries. This paper introduces a methodology grounded in the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability (CBDR-RC). It facilitates a structured distribution of financing responsibilities among Annex II nations. The methodology incorporates the notion of historical responsibility, quantified as carbon debt, while also measuring capability through a balanced consideration of the wealth and gross domestic product (GDP) of the AnnexII countries. The analysis conducted reveals that the United States of America (USA) is required to contribute nearly half of the total financial obligations among the AnnexII countries, with the remaining funds to be apportioned among other nations within this group.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Climate Finance, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Navigating Debt Sustainability: An In-Depth Analysis of the IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework and Its Critique

Author:
Hasan Cömert, Güney Düzçay, and T. Sabri Öncü
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the IMF's debt sustainability analyses (DSAs), delving into their methodologies and implications and highlighting their problems. Since 2002, the DSAs have been the cornerstone of the IMF programs, providing the primary analytical tool to justify and determine the paths and targets specified. Although the DSAs evolved significantly over time, they have severe foundational problems. They rely heavily on strong assumptions and staff judgments, and thereby, they are primarily non-transparent. Secondly, there are significant issues regarding the conduct of DSAs. They have grown excessively complex, hindering consensus on components without necessarily improving assessment quality. Thirdly, the IMF makes very high-stakes decisions with low precision, relying on persistent over-optimism in growth forecasting and paving the way for tighter fiscal policies. Fourthly, the debt dynamics equation of DSAs is inconsistent with stock flow dynamics because it focuses heavily on the primary balance as the main driver. Fifthly, the IMF's framework does not pay enough attention to the underlying reasons for accumulating external debt in developing nations. It often treats external borrowing as a substitute for domestic debt without accounting for the asymmetric international financial architecture.
Topic:
Debt, Fiscal Policy, Sustainability, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Introducing the Response to Sponsorship Dataset: Determinants of Responses by Target States to State Sponsors of Rebel Groups

Author:
Elif Hatun Kiliçbeylşa
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the sponsorship of rebel groups have focused on understanding why and how supporter states help rebels, whether this engagement benefits the rebels, and the effects of sponsorship on the conflict outcomes. By comparison, the responses of target states to sponsorship behavior have been neglected despite the possibility of interstate crises, disputes, and conflict due to the sponsorship. This study introduces a new dataset, the Response Sponsorship Dataset (RSD), which measures target states’ responses toward state sponsors of rebel groups intending to terminate the sponsorship. The data includes information on the responses of 58 target states to 102 supporter states concerning the support of 150 rebel groups between 1991 and 2010, comprising 3719 observations. The RSD identifies diplomatic, economic, militarized, domestic, covert responses and inaction as target state responses as well as classifying them as coercive or non-coercive based on target states’ foreign policy engagements with sponsors. The RSD provides new opportunities for researchers and policymakers to analyze target responses with regards to conflict management and foreign policy as well as promising future research on support termination.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Alliance, Rivalry, Proxy Groups, and State Sponsorship
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:
Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:
Africa

32. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:
Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Africa

33. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

34. Southeast Asia’s Renewable Energy Ambition: The Case of Vietnam

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Southeast Asia has made remarkable progress in expanding renewable energy sources. Facilitated by the various national policies that are in place to encourage their development, the share of renewable energy sources in the region’s installed capacity has increased significantly, rising from around 20 percent to 33 percent in the last twenty years, and is expected to surpass the regional 35 percent target by 2025. While the regional figures look promising, individual countries differ in terms of speed, scale, and the choice of renewable energy technologies developed. Vietnam is a forerunner of renewable energy expansion in Southeast Asia. Significant investments have been made in utility-scale solar and wind power projects since mid-2010s, particularly in provinces with high renewable energy potential such as Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Bac Lieu and Quang Tri. The country added 1,718 Megawatt (MW) of hydropower and 3,405MW of wind power between 2020 and 2022, which accounted for around half of additional hydropower capacity and all of additional wind power capacity in Southeast Asia during that period. Similarly, the country’s solar power development made up approximately 70 percent of additional solar power capacity in Southeast Asia between 2013 and 2022.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Investment, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

35. European Solar PV Manufacturing: Terminal Decline or Hope for a Rebirth?

Author:
Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are booming in Europe (and in other parts of the world), the local industry is closing down. Over the past two years, the European installed solar PV capacity has been multiplied by two. On the other hand, the remaining European manufacturers of solar PV panels are dying. Installed solar PV capacities are experiencing an unprecedented increase in Europe: in two years, they have been multiplied by two with 60 gigawatts (GW) added in 2023. However, local solar PV manufacturers are not benefiting from it as the Chinese competition is knocking them down. Structurally much more competitive, prices of Chinese solar panels have further decreased by 42% in 2023 – making it difficult even for some Chinese companies to survive and forcing many of the remaining European manufacturers out of the market. This situation fragilizes Europe’s strategic autonomy and decarbonization. Covid-19-like disruption or an aggression against Taiwan would leave the continent without any supply. American manufacturers are also flexing their muscles with the aggressive Inflation Reduction Act. Europe’s answer, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), a tougher approach to China’s imports and national support measures, could create a new generation of solar PV manufacturers in Europe.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, Decarbonization, Strategic Autonomy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

36. Xi Jinping’s Visit to France: Stumbling Blocks Pile Up on the Path of Bilateral Cooperation

Author:
Marc Julienne
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
On May 6 and 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to France, his first to Europe since 2019 and the Covid-19 pandemic. Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping will celebrate Franco-Chinese friendship and the sixtieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between their two countries. It comes at a time when the bilateral relationship is officially perceived as positive on both sides, especially after the French President’s visit to China in April 2023. However, beneath the diplomatic varnish, obstacles are piling up, and the space for cooperation between the two countries is receding. Of the four major areas of cooperation on the visit’s agenda – Ukraine, economic relations, human and cultural exchanges, and global challenges – the first three are already facing significant limitations. Beyond the strictly bilateral relationship, the two heads of state have radically different visions of and for Europe. Finally, there is a number of issues that remain absent from the discussions, which are not likely to ease tensions: the Taiwan Strait, nuclear arms control and Chinese interference in Europe. They will need to be addressed sooner or later.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Emmanuel Macron, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and France

37. Power and Financial Interdependence

Author:
Brad Setser
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage. Many in the United States (US) are concerned about indebtedness to its primary strategic rival, and the risks posed by a sudden Chinese withdrawal from US financial markets. US policymakers actively sought to encourage China’s top leadership not to withdraw financing from the market for US Agency securities in the run-up to the global financial crisis. Yet China also sees risks in this unbalanced financial relationship. Chinese policymakers have expressed concern about the domestic political consequences of losses on either their Treasury or Agency holdings and actively have sought to diversify China’s reserves – including by substituting the risk of lending to developing economies for the visibility associated with large holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. China increasingly worries that its dollar holdings and the dollar’s global role increase its vulnerability to potential financial sanctions. Both parties thus worry about the possibility that financial interdependence can be weaponized yet find it hard to extricate themselves from the inevitability of financial interdependence absent a clean break from an entrenched pattern of trade imbalances.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Finance, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

38. The Prospects of Indonesia’s Nickel Boom Amidst a Systemic Challenge from Coal

Author:
Thibault Michel
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional political and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation. Over the last 20 years, Indonesia’s economy has been characterized by very dynamic growth, massive increases in its electricity demand, and coal consumption and exports. Hence, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on a steady growth trajectory, although the country has committed to lowering them by 32% (unconditional) or 41% (conditional) by 2030. With its Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership application, occurring in the context of global energy transition requirements and geopolitical confrontations, Indonesia is today at a crossroads. Indonesia has 42% of the world’s nickel reserves, as well as substantial reserves of copper, gold, tin, and, notably, coal. This wealth in natural resources has given the mining industry crucial importance in Indonesia’s economic growth and has recently taken an even more prominent place: Indonesia has managed to become the world’s largest nickel producer within just a few years, as its share in global nickel extraction grew from 5% in 2015 to 50% in 2023. The country is also the world’s third copper ore exporter. Coal and energy transition minerals have progressively replaced oil and gas in Indonesian exports. Between 2011 and 2023, oil and gas exports fell by nearly two-thirds and their share in the national exports decreased from 20% to 6%. In 2023, export revenues from copper were larger than those of oil and equal to gas earnings. Yet, having major mineral deposits and mining activities is no longer considered sufficient by the Indonesian government. So far, the mineral industry’s growth has relied hugely on Chinese investments and on low-added-value activities, especially in pyrometallurgy processing. Diversification of trade partners and expansion into new, entire value chains is, therefore, a key objective for the Indonesian government. Indonesia is seeking to boost trade with the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and even the Eurasian Economic Union. However, negotiations over respective agreements are currently encountering hurdles due to American legislation (the Inflation Reduction Act and Foreign Entities of Concern status), which could seriously threaten Indonesian exports of battery mineral components to the US market while they also face hurdles to entering the EU due to environmental regulations. The second part of Indonesia’s strategy focuses on the development of new industrial segments of value chains: refining facilities, hydrometallurgical processing plants, battery factories, etc. To develop these activities, the Indonesian government is using two main tools: the divestment of foreign companies in local firms and export bans on crude ore exports. Such bans have been introduced for nickel in 2020 and for bauxite in 2023, while they are expected for copper in 2024 and perhaps even later for tin. Indonesia is today also confronted with the negative repercussions of mining activities on its soil, including protests over the lack of safety in its mines and smelters, citizens’ expropriations, the presence of indigenous tribes on mining sites, and, above all, damage to the environment. Such damage also has its roots in the substantial amounts of energy used to feed smelters, which mostly rely on the use of coal. Decarbonizing Indonesia’s economy has thus become a central challenge for the country, where the consequences of climate change are already palpable on the archipelago’s soil, with extreme weather events and the sinking of the capital city – Jakarta – as sea levels rise. To carry out the tremendous transformation towards net-zero emissions while ensuring steady and sustainable development, the country has signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership and prepared decarbonization scenarios within this framework. Key priorities in the coming years include renewable energy deployment, grid development and an early phase-out of coal. Deploying renewable energy sources as well as large and resilient grids is made more difficult by the country’s geography. The archipelago includes 17,000 islands, some of them being undeveloped, hard to access and far away from each other. Furthermore, the levelized costs of solar and wind power are currently high in Indonesia compared with other developing countries, while public subsidies for coal do not favor low carbon generation sources. If the two first points are thus very challenging, the last one appears to be the hardest, considering the Indonesian economy’s tremendous dependency on coal. Concerns are therefore rising about Indonesia’s ability and even willingness to pursue a genuine, albeit differentiated decarbonization pathway. There are also many questions regarding Indonesia’s mineral trade strategy. New bans on crude ore exports are expected to come into force, while new mining and mineral processing operations are under development across the archipelago, as quantities of nickel produced in the country are at historic highs. This extraordinary increase in nickel production, concomitant with a global economic slowdown, has resulted in a sharp fall in nickel prices, with nickel losing half of its value between January 2023 and February 2024. As a result, many producers are finding themselves in danger, especially in Australia or New Caledonia. While there could be a deliberate strategy to flood the markets and neutralize competition, notably by Chinese companies that control 75% of the global nickel supply (mainly from Indonesia but also from the Philippines), the country faces serious dilemmas. Indonesia’s oil and gas production is diminishing, and it increasingly relies on nickel exports and higher nickel prices for its economic stability, with coal also remaining very important. Indonesia’s resource nationalism and industrial strategy, which include attracting foreign investments, notably via its OECD membership pledge, require a credible pathway to reduce the carbon footprint of its electricity generation. Among the pathways towards both decarbonization and the development of industrial battery value chains, three steps could be considered: Deploying renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) power and offshore wind farms, as well as progressively transferring subsidies from coal to renewable energy sources. Developing a clean battery industry based on high environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria and on the wealth of Indonesia’s subsoil, which includes most of the metals used in battery manufacturing. Protecting climate and biodiversity by favoring innovative solutions for mining waste management and upholding high ESG standards.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Electricity, Coal, Lithium, Minerals, Energy Transition, and Nickel
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

39. Understanding the Role of Women in Nigeria’s Non-State Armed Groups and Security Architecture

Author:
Michael Nwankpa
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian government after successive military regimes, it has continued to face enormous challenges to its legitimacy and monopoly of the use of force. Protest groups, social movements, and non-state armed groups have emerged over the years to demand good governance in some cases and, in other extreme cases, secession, self-determination, and subversion of Nigeria’s secular political system. Many groups have been willing to take up arms against the state to pursue their objectives. Men are usually the significant actors in these armed groups, while most women are considered victims. However, since 2014, when Boko Haram started deploying female suicide bombers and mobilizing more and more girls and women in its terrorist strategies, women’s role in Nigeria’s armed conflicts and their capacity to use violence have gained visibility. Despite this, ascertaining the role of women (mainly whether they occupy positions of power and can perpetrate violence) in non-state armed groups’ activities against the Nigerian state remains difficult, judging by the overwhelmingly male-dominated recipients of the government’s amnesty and deradicalization programs. Relying on interviews with key respondents, this paper fills this gap by interrogating the role of women as victims or perpetrators in Boko Haram and Niger Delta insurgencies, Nigeria’s two foremost insurgencies since the return to democracy in 1999, as well as engaging with the prospect of an effective legislative and policy response that is negotiated by increasing the number of women in security and political leadership positions.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Women, Disarmament, Boko Haram, Armed Conflict, Amnesty, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

40. South Korea’s Emergence as a Defense Industrial Powerhouse

Author:
Wooyeal Paik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In recent years, South Korea’s ascent in the global arms market has been remarkable. This surge, particularly amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, has captured the attention of security watchers worldwide. This paper delves into the intricacies of the South Korean defense industry’s rapid emergence, wherein arms sales skyrocketed to 17.3 billion USD in 2022, and provides an in-depth analysis of its portfolio, capacity, and the rationales guiding its development over the last five decades. It explores how South Korea has capitalized on critical opportunities, including overcoming steep barriers to entry to major contracts with Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland. It sheds light on South Korea’s competitive technologies, mass production capacity, and cost-effectiveness, and addresses the crucial role played by the government’s diplomatic support and coordination with key allies and partners. Against that backdrop, it concludes with some implications for the global defense industry and security architecture.
Topic:
Security, Defense Industry, Armament, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Poland

41. The Future of Nuclear Proliferation after the War in Ukraine

Author:
Nicholas L. Miller
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In the context of deep changes to the international security environment, especially the war in Ukraine, the risks of nuclear proliferation seem quite high, especially in the Middle East and East Asia. Four categories of factors have been identified that might trigger an escalation. Firstly, changes in the international security environment, including heightened competition among major powers, could increase pressure for proliferation in regions like Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Secondly, the declining ability of the United States to enforce non-proliferation regimes may lead allies to seek nuclear capabilities due to concerns over U.S. reliability. Thirdly, failures by nuclear powers to uphold disarmament commitments and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could undermine non-proliferation norms. Lastly, the war in Ukraine highlights the potential use of nuclear threats in conflicts, reinforcing the perception of nuclear weapons as crucial for national security. While there are reasons to anticipate growing proliferation risks, historical precedent suggests that these risks can be managed. Concerns over U.S. reliability and disarmament failures have been addressed through coercion and reassurance in the past. Additionally, the impact of conventional wars supported by nuclear deterrence has been contained. While some risk factors are novel, such as the decline of the U.S. nuclear industry and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, their decisive impact remains uncertain. The implications for the Middle East and East Asia vary. Allies like Japan and South Korea may be convinced to remain non-nuclear due to U.S. security assurances, while adversaries like Iran could be incentivized to pursue nuclear capabilities amid declining effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it may pressure Saudi Arabia to follow suit, potentially leading to regional proliferation dynamics. Thus, great powers and the international community need to step in to manage proliferation triggers by maintaining a focus on nonproliferation in their statecraft.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

42. India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating

Author:
Aleksei Zakharov
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. Moscow and New Delhi have demonstrated divergent approaches to the advancement of their strategic partnership. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. India’s record imports of Russian crude and other commodities, at times in defiance of Western sanctions, have allowed for a considerable boost in bilateral trade. While this “oil connection” may benefit both the Indian and Russian economies, it should not be misperceived as a leap forward in partnership. The structural challenges appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties. Furthermore, their geopolitical understanding is waning, and their defense cooperation is currently in a state of limbo. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, and India

43. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Francesco Siccardi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

44. Iraq’s Development Road: Geopolitics, Rentierism, and Border Connectivity

Author:
Harith Hasan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iraq’s Development Road project aims to create an Iraqi transborder transportation network connecting the Persian Gulf with Türkiye. This network would enhance Iraq’s geopolitical status as a trade corridor and provide financial returns, reducing the state’s reliance on hydrocarbons. However, the project faces obstacles, including challenges of financing and implementation, widespread corruption, the potential for insecurity and instability in Iraq, and the fact that rival transborder projects in the region mean countries may work against its success.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

45. Tunisia’s Transformation Into a Transit Hub: Illegal Migration and Policy Dilemmas

Author:
Hamza Meddeb and Fakhreddine Louati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Due to structural economic, climate, and social crises in the Sahel, Tunisia has emerged as a key transit point for sub-Saharan African migrants and asylum seekers aiming to reach Europe. This has fueled a migration economy in Tunisia. Caught between Tunisia’s attempts to leverage migration to pressure the European Union (EU) on the one hand and the EU’s securitization of migration on the other, sub-Saharan African migrants find themselves trapped in a complex web of challenges.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Reform, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

46. Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus

Author:
Artyom Shraibman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy on Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, an inexorably deeper dependence on Moscow, and the glaring absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decisionmaking. This paper proposes a different paradigm for approaching the issue. Instead of passively reacting to Minsk’s actions, the West should broaden its planning horizon and create more specific incentives for Belarus to follow a different trajectory in the future. The overriding goal of a more proactive Western strategy should be the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus that is no longer fully dominated by Moscow in the military and political realms. Such an ambitious goal would have tangible and lasting benefits for the new European security landscape amid the prospect of a long war in Ukraine. Skepticism in Western policy circles about the viability of such a scenario is entirely understandable. Yet it is not entirely clear whether Western policymakers have registered the significant differences between Russia and Belarus at the societal level and divergent strategic interests of the Russian and Belarusian regimes. At the same time, it is essential for Western policymakers to keep their expectations in check and to avoid an overestimation of their capabilities. The Belarusian crisis cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future by Western efforts alone. Moreover, there should be no illusions about the fact that Belarus, much like Ukraine, holds a special place in the worldview of the Russian ruling elite and President Vladimir Putin personally. The Kremlin’s long-standing obsession with keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) away from Russia’s borders plays into the same attachment to keeping the Belarusian regime in as tight an embrace as possible. Therefore, until Moscow either changes its foreign policy priorities under a new leadership or simply becomes unable to keep Minsk under its control, it would be naïve to expect that the Russian leadership will simply offer any Belarusian government greater leeway to shift its geopolitical orientation. At the same time, it is conceivable that a qualitative increase in military assistance to Ukraine and a more effective economic pressure campaign against Russia could disrupt Belarus’s trajectory and make Minsk more amenable to the incentives that the West can already offer. But an overnight breakthrough seems highly unlikely. This paper, therefore, focuses on more realistic recommendations with longer-term effects.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

47. Exploring Law Enforcement Hacking as a Tool Against Transnational Cyber Crime

Author:
Gavin Wilde and Emma Landi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In terms of revenue, 2023 will go down as a record-breaking year for ransomware, with over a billion dollars in payments going to hackers.1 The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reports a record $12.5 billion lost to cyber crime more broadly over the course of that year.2 As the quantities of affected users and organizations, payoff amounts, critical services, and pilfered sensitive data continue to rise, Western capitals have in recent years come to treat transnational cyber crime as a major national security concern. Because cyber criminals often operate from third countries where prosecution or extradition are unlikely, policymakers often look to military and intelligence services as the best (or only) entities capable of operationally disrupting cyber crime syndicates. Yet another growing trend challenges this notion: Western law enforcement agencies (LEAs) also have been expanding their own abilities to cross both technical and national boundaries to take on cyber criminals. This trend is creating new opportunities and challenges for both domestic and international cyber policy.
Topic:
Crime, Science and Technology, Law Enforcement, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:
Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, and South Africa

49. The Buildup to a Crisis: Current Tensions and Future Scenarios for Tunisia

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Hachemi Alaya, and Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Tunisia has been living beyond its means since 2011. External support and credit flowed into the country after the 2010–2011 uprising to support its nascent democracy, but this funding ended up largely financing a consumption boom that is unsustainable. To make matters worse, macroeconomic and political instability have begun to deeply harm the country’s productive capacity. The risk of a serious financial crisis has risen and corrective action is needed to ward it off. Tunisia’s political system should be able to avoid such catastrophic outcomes. Most reasonable people agree that the risks are rising and that something needs to be done. However, the disagreement is over magnitude, timing, and the type of program required to address the country’s problems. A hard economic adjustment risks unleashing a sociopolitical crisis. Not engaging in a correction, however, may well engender a future economic meltdown. Buying time is easiest politically, but it often means only postponing the crisis, leading to an even larger explosion. The challenge is to find the narrow path to escape a crisis by generating confidence in a national program that is politically acceptable and that can lead to a brighter future. Faced with these negative dynamics—the lack of sustainability and economic regression—economic agents might not merely adjust to the new normal. Instead, they might try to push the burden elsewhere in the economy and by so doing unleash more destructive forces. Think of society, with its networked organizations, as a hydraulic system. As pressure mounts, weaker parts of the network are at risk. Pushing pressure out from one part, instead of addressing the root cause of the problem, only leads to more pressure on other parts. Ultimately, the system will burst at its most vulnerable point. Typically, deterioration is not linear. Pressure builds up in invisible ways until the system explodes in a generalized crisis. There are several ways in which this can happen: foreign exchange reserves are used up slowly until a run takes place and the currency collapses; financing the state’s losses drains the private sector, reducing investment, until there is a collapse in growth; taxes are raised or services reduced, or both, leading to a social explosion; fiscal losses are financed with new loans (or arrears) until creditors dry up, and printing money remains the only solution, leading to hyperinflation; or banks keep lending to the state until depositors lose confidence in the banking sector and there is a bank run. What is destroyed will have to be rebuilt from scratch at great cost. It is in this context that Carnegie’s new Tunisia Sustainability Lab is beginning its work. The objective is twofold. First, the lab will monitor the risks ahead and alert the public about developments. It will do so by preparing a regular scorecard of Tunisia’s economic, financial, fiscal, external, and sociopolitical domains. Second, the lab will track proposals advanced by national and international parties on possible pathways to progress, reporting on and analyzing initiatives to avoid the worst of them. So far, several International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposals have been rejected by the Tunisian authorities. There are alternative proposals, some outlined by civil society actors, but they have not materialized. To support social dialogue, we will highlight the various initiatives and try to evaluate their impact. We will also develop scenarios to assess macroeconomic trends, which we will update over time.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

50. Tracing the Roots of China’s AI Regulations

Author:
Matt Sheehan
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2021 and 2022, China became the first country to implement detailed, binding regulations on some of the most common applications of artificial intelligence (AI). These rules formed the foundation of China’s emerging AI governance regime, an evolving policy architecture that will affect everything from frontier AI research to the functioning of the world’s second-largest economy, from large language models in Africa to autonomous vehicles in Europe. U.S. political leaders often warn against letting China “write the rules of the road” in AI governance. But if the United States is serious about competing for global leadership in AI governance, then it needs to actually understand what it is competing against. That requires examining the nuts and bolts of both China’s AI regulations and the policy process that shaped them. This paper is the second in a series breaking down China’s AI regulations and pulling back the curtain on the policymaking process shaping them. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese government started that process with the 2021 rules on recommendation algorithms, an omnipresent use of the technology that is often overlooked in international AI governance discourse. Those rules imposed new obligations on companies to intervene in content recommendations, granted new rights to users being recommended content, and offered protections to gig workers subject to algorithmic scheduling. The Chinese party-state quickly followed up with a new regulation on “deep synthesis,” the use of AI to generate synthetic media such as deepfakes. Those rules required AI providers to watermark AI-generated content and ensure that content does not violate people’s “likeness rights” or harm the “nation’s image.” Together, these two regulations also created and amended China’s algorithm registry, a regulatory tool that would evolve into a cornerstone of the country’s AI governance regime. Contrary to popular conception in the rest of the world, China’s AI governance regime has not been created by top-down edicts from CCP leadership. President Xi Jinping and other top CCP leaders will sometimes give high-level guidance on policy priorities, but they have not been the key players when it comes to shaping China’s AI regulations. Instead, those regulations have been the product of a dynamic and iterative policymaking process driven by a mix of actors from both inside and outside the Chinese party-state. Those actors include mid-level bureaucrats, academics, technologists, journalists, and policy researchers at platform tech companies. Through a mix of public advocacy, intellectual debate, technical workshopping, and bureaucratic wrangling, these actors laid the foundations for China’s present and future AI regulations. This paper traces the progression of these regulations through the “policy funnel” (see figure 1) of Chinese AI governance. For both recommendation algorithms and deep synthesis rules, the initial spark for the regulation came from long-standing CCP concerns about the creation and dissemination of online content. For the former, the rise of the algorithmically driven news app Toutiao threatened the CCP’s ability to set a unified narrative and choose which stories are pushed to readers. In the case of deep synthesis, online face swap videos grabbed the attention of the Chinese public and led government regulators to consider the threat of deepfakes. Over the course of 2017–2020, these concerns made their way through China’s bureaucracy. Regulators took a series of stopgap measures in specific applications, while also tasking policy analysts and government-adjacent technical organizations with exploring different regulatory interventions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, and Asia