Search

Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper

1. The US's tougher stance on multilateral formats

Author:
Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:
03-2027
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The administration of US President Donald Trump will seek to exert greater influence over processes within the UN, whilst reducing its involvement in the activities of several international organisations (IOs) which it considers less important. The reduction in funding for various formats will increase pressure on Poland and like-minded states to increase their contributions towards their maintenance.
Topic:
International Organization, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Poland, North America, and United States of America

2. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:
Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:
11-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

3. The Second Republic: Remaking Egypt Under Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is building a new republic defined by a social ethos of “nothing for free,” a new form of state capitalism, and hyperpresidential powers set within a military guardianship that secures his regime but leaves it unable to resolve political, economic, and social challenges.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, State Capitalism, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Military
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

4. Les étudiants chinois en Europe et l’Etat-parti

Author:
Jérôme Doyon
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Chinese Students in Europe and the Party-State -- Why do some Chinese students who choose to study abroad get involved in pro-regime organisations? How does this reflect the efforts of the People’s Republic of China to foster relationships of dependence and allegiance with its overseas nationals? Fieldwork conducted within branches of the Chinese Students and Scholars Association in France and the United Kingdom sheds light on the drivers of this form of long-distance authoritarian commitment. An analysis of how the association operates in two different European countries reveals how it adapts to the local environment while functioning as an enclave, isolated from host societies. The organisation’s primary objective is to maintain the Chinese partystate’s hold over its nationals outside national borders rather than influence or develop ties with foreign societies. However, students do not passively allow themselves to be co-opted, and the many pressures they experience can hinder efforts to mobilise them in support of the regime.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Political Science, and Students
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and France

5. MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0

Author:
Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to trade policy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy, carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs and Armington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competition frameworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables longterm simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energy representation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures, and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis.
Topic:
Environment, Trade Policy, Carbon Emissions, MIRAGE, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America’s European partners. This article examines how the leading official proposals fell short. And it presents two, simpler proposals better aligned with battlefield realities. The article also explores the evolution of US, Ukrainian, Russian, and West European public opinion on the war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a disaster – not only for the two principal combatants, who together have suffered 300,000 deaths, but for the entire world. This fact drives the imperative to end this conflict forthwith via negotiated compromise. Yet, as the article shows, none of the official proposals embrace this imperative. Instead, all exhibit efforts to win advantage for one side or the other. They are instances of diplo-fare – war by means of diplomacy. As such, their aim may be rejection not agreement, with an eye toward painting one’s opponent as intransigent and, in this way, build support for continuing the fight – or, in the case of President Trump’s preference, establish a pretext for US withdrawal. The simplest proposals may be the most practicable but these must reflect current battlefield realities rather than attempting to “correct” or “re-balance” them. This principle guides the independent cease-fire options suggested in this article. Otherwise, the article explores the possibility that Europe’s so-called Coalition of the Willing will respond to any serious fracture of Kyiv’s effort – a distinct possibility – by establishing a new nuclearized Europe-vs-Russia “central front” inside Ukraine. (With an Appendix summarizing the official November and December peace proposal texts.)
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, European Union, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

7. Variables of War

Author:
Lutz Unterseher
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity. Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war’s outbreak. ​ The formal causal argument: War’s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the “cult of the offensive”).​ Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further “sufficient condition” is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or “open flanks” in the opponent’s posture.​ This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Russia Leverages Venezuela to Expand Influence in Western Hemisphere

Author:
Sergey Sukhankin
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Moscow has condemned the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro while avoiding substantive retaliation, demonstrating both symbolic solidarity and an unwillingness to jeopardize relations with Washington. The Kremlin’s relationship with Venezuela enables Moscow to project power beyond Cuba in the Western Hemisphere, access Venezuela’s oil reserves, and cultivate an alliance aligned with an anti-Western agenda. Russian energy firms have gained oil stakes and repayment-in-kind options for investments in Venezuela, while joint financial ventures and Venezuela’s crypto experiments have served as testing grounds for sanctions-evasion mechanisms later adapted by Russia. Arms transfers, military-industrial collaboration, and media partnerships through RT, Sputnik, and TeleSur expanded Russia’s military footprint and narrative reach in the Western Hemisphere, though the financial return on Russian investments remains limited and challenged by U.S. pushback.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, and Power Projection
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

9. Russia–Azerbaijan Relations Remain in State of Limbo

Author:
Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s decision to skip Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eurasian Economic Council meetings in December 2025 signaled renewed strain with Moscow, surprising observers who believed the October 2025 Dushanbe summit had stabilized relations after the December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) crash. Tensions resurfaced after Azerbaijan learned Russia had closed the crash’s criminal investigation, which contradicted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Dushanbe assurances of missile-related responsibility, legal accountability, and compensation, instead attributing the crash to weather and pilot error. Conflicting Russian narratives and public criticism in Azerbaijan highlight a widening gap between Moscow’s political statements and legal actions, leaving normalization stalled and Russia–Azerbaijan relations suspended in distrust rather than reconciliation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

10. Aftermath of Al-Fashir’s Fall to Rapid Support Forces

Author:
Andrew McGregor
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured al-Fashir in late October after an 18-month siege, consolidating RSF control over western Sudan and providing a potential capital for a new state. After entering al-Fashir, the RSF carried out mass looting, ethnic targeting, and killed 460 people at the al-Saudi maternity hospital in an attack that brought international outrage. Parallel RSF sieges in Kordofan indicate a strategy to divide Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is struggling to maintain control, but still currently favors a military solution over diplomatic negotiations.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and al-Fashir

11. How IPLCs Can Leverage BRICS for Inclusive Environmental Governance

Author:
Metolo Foyet
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)face a pivotal chance to influence the emerging governance architecture of the BRICS+ alliance.Western-led frameworks (UNFCCC, CBD) recognize Indigenous rights but still struggle withimplementation. BRICS, representing over half the world’s population and major biodiversity,offers an alternative platform to advance plural knowledge systems and South–South solidarity. This brief proposes embedding Indigenous leadership within BRICS institutions, aligning newnorms with UNDRIP and ILO 169, and creating financial and knowledge instruments that sustaincommunity-led conservation. The goal is shared sovereignty in environmental decision-making,not token participation. The central question is whether BRICS can evolve from a geopolitical and financial bloc into a rights-based governance platform where IPLCs become co-architects ofglobal environmental policy, and whether multipolar governance can close implementation gapsby embedding Indigenous authority at the design stage.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Indigenous, BRICS, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. AI and the Future of Work in Cameroon: Preparing theWorkforce for Emerging Opportunities

Author:
Larissa Ntoubia and Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents a transformative opportunity for Cameroon’s labor market andoverall economic development. With the launch of the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy(SNIA) in July 2025 , Cameroon aims to become a continental hub for AI innovation by 2040. Thestrategy includes ambitious sets ambitious targets : training 60,000 AI professionals (of whom40% will be women), creating 12,000 direct jobs AI jobs, and increasing AI’s contribution tonational GDP to around 0.8 – 1.2% by 2040 through applications in key sectors such asagriculture, health, education and justice. While these targets signal a strong political commitment, achieving them will require overcoming significant structural constraints that are common across the continent. Experience from otherAfrican countries shows that the successful implementation of national AI strategies depends onreliable digital and energy infrastructure, clear regulatory frameworks for data governance and privacy, and sufficient institutional capacity to manage complex multi-sector programme. Thefeasibility of the SNIA will therefore rest not only on its design but also on the government’s abilityto address these foundational prerequisites.
Topic:
Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

13. The Recognition of The Palestinian Statehood and itsImplication to International Diplomacy

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The recognition of Palestinian statehood has re‑emerged as a pivotal issue in internationaldiplomacy, reshaping alliances and testing the limits of symbolic acts in global politics. While 147UN member states now recognize Palestine, this acknowledgment remains contested, particularlyby Israel and its closest allies. The debate underscores the tension between symbolism andsubstance: recognition strengthens legitimacy but does not automatically deliver stability or peace. For Africa, the Palestinian case resonates with unresolved sovereignty disputes such as WesternSahara and Somaliland. It highlights the importance of collective positions, effective mediation,and reforms in global governance systems. The African Union and subregional blocs havehistorically intervened in contested sovereignties, but their capacity remains constrained by limitedresources and weak enforcement mechanisms. This brief argues that recognition must be paired with tangible reforms, inclusive dialogue, andinstitutional strengthening. For African states, the lesson is clear: declarations alone areinsufficient. By leveraging recognition diplomatically, advocating for UN Security Council reform, and enhancing AU mediation frameworks, Africa can transform symbolic acts into meaningfulsteps toward peace, stability, and equitable global governance.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Equity, and Recognition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

14. Building an Inclusive Future : Making Public and PrivateInvestment Work in CEMAC

Author:
Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, CEMAC has invested heavily in public infrastructure, yet job-rich andinclusive growth remains limited. Private investment is shallow and concentrated in extractivesectors, while SMEs face chronic financing and regulatory constraints, leading to weakdiversification and high exposure to external shocks. This brief reframes the challenge as one ofpublic–private complementarity: how to redesign public spending, financial instruments, andgovernance so that each public franc attracts private capital, capabilities, and jobs. We propose asequenced reform package. Within 12 months, governments should publish a quarterly public-investment dashboard, launch a partial credit-guarantee window for SME lending, implement twotransparent PPP pilot projects, and introduce fast-track business licensing and permitting. Over12-36 months, project appraisal and ex-post evaluation should be institutionalized, PPPframeworks standardized, and commercial courts strengthened. Over 36-60 months, regionalinvestment rules should be harmonized, and financing diversified through regional and greeninstruments. Progress will be measured by on-time project delivery, SME credit growth, non-extractive private investment, and formal job creation.
Topic:
Inclusion, Public Investment, CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community), and Private Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

15. Harnessing Critical Minerals for Industrialization inSub‑Saharan Africa: Governance, Local Processing, andRegional Value Chains

Author:
Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) holds nearly 30% of global reserves of critical minerals essential for theenergy transition, including cobalt, lithium, manganese, and copper. However, the region capturesless than 10% of the projected US$16 trillion in global mineral value over the next 25 years, asmost resources are exported in raw form with minimal domestic processing. This model limits jobcreation, technological advancement, and fiscal resilience. Rising global competition for securemineral supply chains presents an opportunity for SSA to shift from resource dependence toindustrial transformation. This brief argues that mineral wealth can translate into sustainabledevelopment through three interrelated pillars: transparent governance, strategic investment inlocal processing capacity, and integration of mineral value chains under the AfCFTA. A policyroadmap is proposed to strengthen contract transparency, build energy and skills infrastructure, promote regional processing hubs, and harmonize continental standards. Timely action canconvert geological endowments into industrial capability, economic sovereignty, and inclusivegrowth.
Topic:
Governance, Industrialization, Value Chains, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

16. Health Insurance Coverage for Refugees in Cameroon:Feasibility and Perspectives for Inclusive Access

Author:
Iskandar Patrick Abadoma Mounpou, Solange Dabou, and Odette Kibu
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Cameroon hosts more than 430,000 refugees and asylum seekers, most of whom live in remoteregions with limited access to health services. Refugees face persistent barriers to care, includingfinancial constraints, unstable legal status, mobility, and a health system heavily reliant on out-of-pocket payments. These vulnerabilities heighten the risk of delayed care and catastrophic healthexpenditures. This brief examines the feasibility of creating a refugee-inclusive health insurance mechanism.Despite structural constraints, international experience shows that refugee coverage is achievablewhen financing, legal frameworks, and partnerships are well-designed. Three pathways are 1/6 particularly relevant for Cameroon: progressive integration into national schemes with subsidies,dedicated humanitarian insurance, and public-private partnerships (PPPs) to expand serviceavailability in underserved areas. Short-term priorities include establishing a legal basis for enrolment and piloting subsidizedschemes. In the long term, investments in district-level facilities and digital systems wouldstrengthen continuity of care and support national UHC goals.
Topic:
Refugees, Health Insurance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

17. Rights-Based Alternatives to Incarceration for Women Lessons from Colombia’s Public Utility Law and the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy

Author:
Claudia Cardona, Julie Hannah, Isabel Pereira-Arana, and Rebecca Schleifer
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
Women’s incarceration in Colombia is deeply linked to the disproportionate application of drug laws and to the gendered inequalities women face in poor and care demanding contexts. A novel law introduced in 2023 addresses these issues and allows certain women heads of household living in conditions of marginality to exchange prison for public service in freedom. Law 2292 - the Public Utility Law, is an expression of the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy, and of normative shifts in Colombia around criminal policy and drug control. This paper documents how Mujeres Libres, the Center for Law, Justice and Society (Dejusticia), and the International Centre for Human Rights and Drug Policy, based at the University of Essex, came together to use the Guidelines as a shared advocacy and technical framework to strengthen the implementation of Law 2292. Aimed at policymakers, judges, public defenders, and civil society in Latin America and beyond, this paper offers a practical account of our implementation efforts: how our partnership formed, how we engaged strategic actors and identified key pathways of change, what tools we produced, what results we are beginning to see, and what should happen next.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Inequality, Participation, Drug Policy, and Incarceration Alternatives
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

18. La inteligencia artificial en la Unión Europea

Author:
Cristina Puente, Celia Fernández Aller, Antoni Farriols Solá, Katherin Corredor, and Elisa Gutiérrez García
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La inteligencia artificial se ha consolidado como una tecnología de impacto sistémico, acelerada en los últimos años por la irrupción de la IA generativa y los grandes modelos de lenguaje, con efectos transversales en la economía, los servicios públicos y la vida social, y con profundas implicaciones éticas, laborales y geopolíticas. En este contexto de competencia estratégica entre Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea, el informe analiza la evolución tecnológica, los modelos fundacionales, las aplicaciones sectoriales y los riesgos asociados, subrayando la dependencia europea de infraestructuras y hardware externos, así como su posición de liderazgo normativo frente a un rezago en inversión, escalabilidad y talento. A partir de este diagnóstico, se examinan las iniciativas europeas emergentes, los desafíos de gobernanza global y las oportunidades para que la UE impulse un modelo de IA confiable, sostenible y centrado en las personas, que combine innovación, soberanía tecnológica, protección de derechos fundamentales y cooperación internacional en un entorno global cada vez más inestable.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Youth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

19. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar

Author:
Julio César Muñiz Pérez
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
Topic:
Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Irán entre protestas y geopolítica

Author:
Xavier Villar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Análisis de las protestas en Irán surgidas en un contexto de fuerte inflación y depreciación del rial —que perdió cerca de la mitad de su valor frente al dólar en 2025— y que, tras iniciarse como una movilización de carácter económico encabezada por comerciantes y pequeños empresarios, derivaron rápidamente en expresiones de descontento político más amplio. Aunque las manifestaciones se han extendido a numerosas ciudades y han adquirido una notable visibilidad social, su escala y composición difieren de ciclos previos, como los de 2009 o 2019, y hasta ahora no se han producido deserciones significativas en las fuerzas de seguridad que permitan hablar de un cambio de régimen inminente. El artículo subraya además las dificultades para verificar cifras de víctimas debido al bloqueo informativo, matiza la idea de un rechazo político unánime al régimen y sitúa las protestas en un marco político-estratégico más amplio, marcado por la posición geográfica de Irán, sus recursos energéticos y la competencia internacional entre Estados Unidos y China.
Topic:
Regime Change, Sanctions, Economy, Protests, Inflation, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

21. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional

Author:
Vicent Climent-Ferrando
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
Topic:
Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Hacia la Ley de Chips 2.0

Author:
Emilio García García
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
En este documento elaborado por Emilio García García se aborda la revisión de la Ley de Chips de la UE, que tuvo su origen en la crisis de la cadena de suministros posterior a los confinamientos para contener la pandemia de la COVID-19. La Comisión Europea ha acelerado su proceso de revisión junto con la globalidad de la estrategia de semiconductores comunitaria. En un escenario de inestabilidad geopolítica, el ejecutivo de la UE ha señalado la industria de semiconductores como una de las claves de la soberanía tecnológica del Viejo Continente, motivando así la urgencia del proceso. La ya denominada Ley de Chips 2.0 debe tener en cuenta los éxitos y fracasos de la estrategia actual, así como los cambios geopolíticos y del entorno tecnológico y de mercado. Se presenta en el documento un resumen de estas circunstancias y recomendaciones para la próxima revisión de la norma. Si bien destacamos la importancia de la nueva Ley, la nueva política industrial y comercial europea para semiconductores debe trascender el marco de una directiva o reglamento, y la implementación de las recomendaciones de la sección final requiere cambios en otros instrumentos de la UE y nuevas herramientas.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Political Science, Public Policy, and CHIPS
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

23. The Case for Legal Reform in the IDF

Author:
Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The war has exposed a troubling pattern of legal encroachment on the battlefield, with the legal system shifting from a supporting role to a dominant force shaping security outcomes—at times at the expense of victory and at increased risk to soldiers. This paper proposes reforms to restore the balance between legal advice and security needs, remove self-imposed constraints, and return the IDF to a single clear objective: decisive victory
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Reform, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

24. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:
Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

25. As Erdogan Tightens His Grip on Syria, What Can Israel Do?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Following the agreement between the al-Sharaa regime and the Kurds, the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria presents strategic dilemmas for Israel
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

26. What Lies Beneath: Hybrid Threats to Taiwan’s Submarine Cables and the Contest in the Information Domain

Author:
Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Between 2023 and 2025, multiple disruptions affected Taiwan’s submarine cables, a critical yet vulnerable infrastructure essential to the island’s connectivity and security. Against the backdrop of China’s diplomatic, economic and military pressure targeting Taiwan, these disruptions are generally defined as “grey zone operations”. Yet, reframing them as hybrid threats allows for a better understanding of how specific threats to the infrastructure domain can spill over in the information domain. Disruptions to submarine cables may be exploited by threat actors to erode trust in domestic institutions and destabilise society. Uncertainty in the information domain emerging from these disruption presents opportunities for Taiwanese authorities to mobilise public support, international partners and resources to enhance infrastructure resilience. A strategic communications approach drawing on the experience of the EU can strengthen response through enhanced coordination among institutions, coherent messaging, constructive public engagement and improved awareness of information-domain contestation. An effective adoption of this approach may mitigate risks from threat actors while reinforcing the capacity of Taiwanese authorities to safeguard critical infrastructure and maintain societal trust.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Disinformation, Hybrid Threats, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

27. Deconstructing Kosovo's relations with Turkiye - Between Reality and Expectations

Author:
Asllan Zenunaj
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of relations between Kosovo and Türkiye from Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 to 2025, with a specific focus on the security dimension of this partnership. Its central aim is to analyse how Türkiye’s foreign policy tools and priorities toward Kosovo have evolved under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and how these changes are perceived domestically in Kosovo, particularly in light of Kosovo’s stated Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The analysis reveal change and continuities in Türkiye’s engagement, complementing an early emphasis on historical, religious and cultural narratives associated with “Neo-Ottomanism” to a more pragmatic “Erdoganism”, an interest-driven approach, particularly evident after 2022. The initial engagement under the AKP was heavily heavily influenced by Ahmet Davutoğlu's “Strategic Depth” doctrine, which emphasized soft power, shared heritage, and a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. This included religious diplomacy through institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), which promoted a shared Sunni-Hanafi Islamic identity and renovated Ottoman-era heritage sites. The paper argues this has complimented by a more assertive “Erdoganism”, which combines strategic depth with hard-power tools, particularly economic and defense cooperation, where Türkiye has become a crucial partner in modernizing the Kosovo Security Force through the provision of advanced military hardware and joint industrial projects. Additionally, Türkiye’s command of KFOR in 2023 and 2025 underscores its central position in regional security underlying the strong coordination between the bilateral agreements within the spirit of NATO’s formal structure and coordination with key allies like the United States. The paper also finds out that the Strategic partnership between Türkiye and Kosovo can be seen as exceeding its line between cooperation and interference in Kosovo’s domestic affairs, nevertheless these perceptions often derive from the misconceptions regarding the excessive use of Ankara’s soft-power tools. Henceforth, although Türkiye has sought to shape the country’s cultural narratives and public discourse, leveraging historical memory and kinship ties to project influence within local institutions and communities, there is a notable divergence between public perception and strategic reality. While an overwhelming 91% of Kosovars view Türkiye favorably, strategic allegiance remains firmly with the United States, indicating that popular support is emotive and pragmatic rather than an ideological endorsement of Türkiye’s political model. The paper recommends that Kosovo navigate this complex dynamic by supporting the transition from personalized “brotherhood diplomacy” toward a more structured, transparent, and institutionalized state‑to‑state partnership, one that avoids political interference on either side, remains embedded within NATO‑compatible frameworks, and is clearly communicated as complementary to Kosovo’s Euro‑Atlantic integration. Such an approach would allow Kosovo to maximize the benefits of its partnership with Türkiye while safeguarding its secular, independent, and democratic principles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

28. With imports of around €900 million in 2025, is Kosovo moving toward a potential dependency on China’s supply chain?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
KCSS publishes new paper on Kosovo’s rising imports from China and supply‑chain risks Prishtina, February 20, 2026: The Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) has published a new discussion paper in its Secure Futures Series examining whether Kosovo’s rapidly growing imports from China could be placing the country on a trajectory toward supply‑chain dependency, and what this might mean for Kosovo’s governance, resilience, and Euro‑Atlantic integration and alignment. Authored by Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, the paper notes that Kosovo imported approximately €920 million worth of goods from China in 2025, making China Kosovo’s third‑largest important partner after Germany, and Türkiye, despite Kosovo’s free trade agreement with Ankara, and no diplomatic relations with Beijing. The analysis highlights that Kosovo’s imports from China have expanded steadily and doubled over the past four years, with China now accounting for around 13 percent of Kosovo’s imports. “For KCSS, focusing on unwanted foreign influence in the Kosovo is about anticipating how economic exposure can translate into political leverage, and security and strategic vulnerabilities,” said Mentor Vrajolli, Executive Director of KCSS. “As Kosovo deepens trade ties with China, despite the absence of normal diplomatic relations, this trend deserves serious attention for its potential ramifications on Kosovo’s longer‑term positioning in relation to the United States and the European Union.” The paper situates Kosovo’s evolving trade pattern within the wider Western Balkans context, where several countries have already experienced politically contentious engagement with China through large‑scale infrastructure loans, procurement practices, and technology cooperation. It underscores that, unlike many of its neighbors, Kosovo has remained at political distance from Beijing, however, the paper argues that dependence can develop also quietly through market dynamics and supply chains. “The purpose is not to be alarmist,” said Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, author of the paper. “The concern is the direction of travel of our country, since imports from China have doubled since 2021, while Kosovo has almost no exports to China and no formal mechanisms for economic dispute‑resolution. In a system, such as China’s, where state and economy are not only closely intertwined, but in practice, one, economic cooperation is rarely politically neutral and especially when the country in question does not even recognise Kosovo and consistently supports Serbia’s position in international forums.” The paper points to relevant experiences, such as Lithuania’s trade disruption following tensions over Taiwan representation and South Korea’s economic exposure during the THAAD dispute, to illustrate how economic links can become instruments of pressure when political disagreements arise. The discussion paper also flags the broader normative dimension, arguing that Chinese engagement in the region has often operated in ways that can undercut rule‑of‑law standards, including through practices such as lex specialis in procurement in other Western Balkan contexts.
Topic:
Risk, Trade, Imports, Supply Chains, and Dependency
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

29. Political participation across generational cohorts in Uganda

Author:
Ssenkumba Muhammad and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Drawing on Bartels and Jackman’s (2014) generational model of political learning, which posits that political attitudes and behaviours are shaped by the historical contexts in which individuals come of age, this study examines whether generational cohorts differ in patterns of political participation in Uganda. We identify three cohorts corresponding to key phases of Uganda’s political history: Gen A, socialised during periods of political instability prior to the Museveni era; Gen B, shaped under the one-party regime; and Gen C, who came of age following the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 2005. Using Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) data from a nationally representative sample of adult Ugandans, we employ binary and ordinal logistic regression models to examine participation in both conventional and unconventional political activities. The results show that older cohorts are more likely to engage in conventional forms of participation, such as voting and contacting elected representatives, while younger cohorts exhibit greater participation in unconventional activities, particularly protests. To assess whether these patterns reflect cohort-specific political socialisation or age-related life-cycle effects, we replicate the analysis using comparable Afrobarometer data from Tanzania, a country with a distinct political history. The Tanzanian results reveal broadly similar generational patterns in conventional participation, suggesting that these differences may reflect age-related dynamics rather than cohort-specific socialisation alone. However, the specific unconventional repertoires through which generational differences manifest appear to be conditioned by each country’s political environment. These findings call into question strong cohort based interpretations of political participation and underscore the importance of distinguishing generational from life-cycle effects in studies of political behaviour in Africa.
Topic:
Democracy, Freedom, Political Participation, and Citizen Engagement
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and East Africa

30. Coethnics covote in Africa: Studying electoral cleavages with a covoting regression model

Author:
Carl Müller-Crepon and Nils-Christian Bormann
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Existing micro-level analyses often focus on electoral support for a subset of candidates or parties, while meso- and macro-level approaches infer individual motivations from aggregate outcomes. The risk of selection bias arises from the former approach, while omitted-variable bias may result from the latter. Our new covoting regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party/candidate while conditioning on other characteristics shared between them. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro foundations of widely used aggregate indicators, such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of party concentration and ethnic homogeneity. Our data consist of dyadic comparisons between respondents from Afrobarometer surveys. Pooling across 27 countries, coethnicity increases covoting intentions by 17 percentage points. The effect of coethnicity is driven by politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties. It is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. Beyond ethnicity, we address key issues in studying electoral consequences of socioeconomic cleavages and bridge gaps between levels of analysis.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:
Africa

31. Climate change and child abuse

Author:
Abreham Adera
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Climate shocks strain household resources, increase stress, and weaken protective structures, all of which may elevate the risk of child abuse. Yet little is known about how climate change affects children, particularly in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap by examining the relationship between drought exposure and attitudes toward child beating in sub-Saharan Africa. We combine individual-level data from the Afrobarometer survey with geocoded drought data from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset (GDIS). We use a spatiotemporal analysis that exploits differences in when and where the Afrobarometer surveys were conducted and when and where droughts occurred. We find that individuals living in drought-affected areas are more likely to justify physically disciplining children. These effects are persistent, potentially with no pattern of decay over time. Mediation analysis of causal pathways suggests that drought increases food insecurity, which raises the risk of intimate partner violence (IPV), and that IPV, in turn, significantly heightens the likelihood of child abuse. These findings highlight the broader social consequences of climate-related shocks and suggest that interventions targeting household stress and IPV norms may help mitigate the impact of drought on child welfare
Topic:
Climate Change, Intimate Partner Violence, Drought, and Child Abuse
Political Geography:
Africa

32. China's 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan: Continuing the Economic Model and Increasing Self-Reliance

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The latest five-year plan, adopted in March this year by the Chinese parliament, identifies industrial modernisation and the pursuit of technological independence as key to China’s economic development. It mentions increased consumption and improved social conditions, but these are not priorities. The development of modern industries is intended to increase the competitiveness of Chinese companies relative to entities from developed countries, including Poland. The direction outlined by the plan is another argument for strengthening the protection of the EU single market and supporting an active EU industrial policy.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Economic Development, Modernization, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

33. The EU and Australia strengthen trade and security partnership

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
On 24 March, during a visit to Australia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade agreement and the establishment of a Security and Defence Partnership. These agreements are intended to help both sides diversify their trade, reducing dependence on China, whilst increasing resilience to US political and economic pressure. It also presents an opportunity for Poland to intensify its cooperation with Australia.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Free Trade, Trade, and European Commission
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Poland, and Australia

34. International Echoes of El Salvador's Public Security Model

Author:
Barbara Midziak and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s success in improving domestic security results from implementing draconian measures (including mass arrests and a state of emergency that has lasted for four years) and from the dismantling of democratic mechanisms. While Honduras and Ecuador, for example, encountered limitations in copying that approach, the Salvadoran counter-crime model won strong endorsement from US President Donald Trump. This support, however, may foster a revival of authoritarian tendencies in Latin America, as his administration rewards authorities that cooperate closely with advancing US interests, regardless of whether or not they adhere to the rule of law.
Topic:
Crime, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Rule of Law, Donald Trump, Public Security, and Nayib Bukele
Political Geography:
Central America, El Salvador, Honduras, and Ecuador

35. Lee Jae-myung's Inter-Korean Policy

Author:
Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
South Korea’s attempts to improve relations with North Korea have been unsuccessful. Although this is mainly due to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) reluctance to resume contacts with the Republic of Korea (ROK), an additional problem has been caused by the inconsistent actions of President Lee Jae-myung’s administration, which has been in office since June last year. The administration’s goal of ‘peaceful coexistence’ effectively means accepting reunification as unlikely, a prospect that is losing support in South Korean society. To avoid an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea could seek to cooperate with countries that regularly engage with the DPRK, such as Poland.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Poland

36. Leveraging Remittances for Economic Transformation inECCAS Countries

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Remittances are increasingly becoming a strategic yet underutilized lever for economictransformation in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, remittance inflows reached a record USD 54 billion in 2023. Within ECCAS, theDemocratic Republic of Congo (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and Cameroon (about USD 375million) were the main recipients, while other member states received comparatively modestamounts. Although these flows do not collectively reach USD 5 billion at the regional level, theyalready surpass foreign direct investment or official development assistance in specific countriesand play a stabilizing role in household welfare. However, their developmental potential remainslargely untapped due to limited financial inclusion, high transfer costs, and the absence ofeffective institutional mechanisms to channel remittances toward productive investment and economic structural transformation. At the same time, ECCAS economies continue to grapple with persistent challenges : low industrialproductivity, weak competitiveness, fragile regulatory systems, insufficient infrastructure, and poorgovernance quality. These weaknesses are compounded by high levels of financial exclusion,limited access to affordable credit, and rising unemployment especially among young people andvulnerable populations. Combined, these constraints hinder progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 . In thiscontext, better mobilization and strategic use of remittances constitute a viable and largelyuntapped alternative to support economic transformation and resilience.
Topic:
Economic Transformation, Remittances, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:
Africa

37. Improving access to electricity for greater energy justice inEconomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
ECCAS’s growth is constrained by a deep electrification deficit that undermines energy justice,human development, and inclusive structural transformation. Despite its immense energypotential, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) remains one of the leastelectrified sub-regions in Africa. , access to electricity was estimated at just 56.7%, far below thesub-Saharan African average of 72%. This persistent energy deficit fuels domestic energyinsecurity, as millions of poor and vulnerable households still rely on traditional and polluting fuelsfor cooking and heating. The consequences are profound: weakened social services, health risks,reduced productivity, and slowed economic diversification. The impacts span multiple sectors. Inrural areas, health centers lack reliable power for vaccine refrigeration, emergency care, oressential equipment. Households using biomass-based fuels face heightened risks of respiratorydiseases, disproportionately affecting women and children. In education, limited lighting andinadequate digital infrastructure reduce study hours and widen the learning gap. More broadly, unreliable electricity remains a major constraint on industrialization, agro-processing, and private-sector development, weakening the region’s competitiveness and slowing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals .
Topic:
Development, Industrialization, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:
Africa

38. From International Fragmentation to Industrial Cohesion:The Missing Link in AfCFTA Implementation

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah, Stephane Atangana, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As global geo-economic fragmentation accelerates, African economies face rising external shocksfrom supply chain reconfiguration, protectionism, and volatile capital flows. The AfricanContinental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a strategic pathway to build regional resilience,expand industrial capacity, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Yet, despite early trade growth,intra-African trade remains limited, constrained by persistent non-tariff barriers, regulatoryfragmentation, weak logistics infrastructure, and insufficient productive capacity. Without deeperdomestic and regional reforms, AfCFTA risks delivering trade diversion rather than sustainedindustrial transformation. This brief argues that Africa’s central challenge is not market accessalone, but the absence of industrial cohesion that enables firms to scale, integrate into regionalvalue chains, and compete globally. It proposes a reform agenda focused on accelerated NTBremoval, targeted industrial value-chain development, regulatory convergence, digital tradeintegration, and coordinated continental trade diplomacy. Translating AfCFTA from legal ambitioninto economic performance is essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-termcompetitiveness in a fragmenting global economy.
Topic:
Resilience, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

39. Chinese Loans to Sub-Saharan African countries: BalancingDevelopment and Dependency

Author:
Ahmed Salim Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) foremost tradingpartner and the region’s main bilateral creditor, profoundly reshaping its financial and geopoliticallandscape. Between 2000 and 2022, Chinese lenders extended over USD 170 billion in loans toAfrican countries , with major recipients (such as Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia)each receiving between USD 5 and 40 billion. Today, China accounts for around 20% of SSA’sbilateral external debt , underscoring its strategic importance in the continent’s developmenttrajectory. This Policy Brief argues that while Chinese loans are instrumental in addressing Africa’smassive infrastructure deficit, they concurrently heighten debt vulnerabilities and geopoliticaldependence. The attractiveness of Chinese financing is best understood in relation to Africa’spersistent structural needs. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB, 2024) , SSA facesan annual infrastructure financing gap of USD 100-150 billion, far exceeding the capacity ofdomestic revenues and traditional donors. Chinese loans therefore stand out due to their speed of approval focus on large-scale physical infrastructure, and limited policy conditionality’s comparedto Western lenders. For many African governments, this makes Chinese credit an appealing andpragmatic alternative for accelerating development.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

40. Glocalising Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon:Implications for good governance, equity and inclusiveness

Author:
Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Despite recent health financing reforms, quality healthcare services remain largely inaccessible tomany Cameroonians with financial barriers being one of the primary reasons. The UniversalHealth Coverage (UHC) program was introduced as a way of enhancing equitable access toquality services, without heavy financial spending for patients. However, rolling out the program inCameroon has raised some conceptual ambiguity as there is no clear understanding of what UHCis all about, including its implementation. Drawing from desk review of policy documents andresearch papers, we argue that UHC has been glocalized in Cameroon and the process hasimplication for good governance, equity and inclusiveness, which are the core values in measuring and assessing its performance. We begin with a presentation of the conceptualization of UHCfrom a global perspective, followed by the glocalization of UHC in Cameroon, its implication forgood governance, access and inclusiveness, and some recommendations for action.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, Public Health, Health Insurance, Inclusion, and Equity
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

41. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

42. Lessons from Community-Based Health Insurance forScaling Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon

Author:
Regina Sinsai and Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Cameroon’s Universal Health Coverage (UHC) program, launched in 2023, aims to reducefinancial barriers to healthcare. However, coverage remains low (6.4%). Community-Based HealthInsurance (CBHI) schemes, despite their limitations, offer valuable lessons for UHCimplementation—particularly in governance, community engagement, and risk pooling. This briefoutlines these lessons and provides actionable recommendations to strengthen UHC.
Topic:
Governance, Health Insurance, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

43. Closing the Health Insurance Gap for Cameroon’s HealthWorkforce

Author:
Regina Sinsai, Constantine Asahngwa, and Ronald Gobina
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to Cameroon’s health system, yet most lack adequatehealth insurance coverage. Current schemes—NSIF, employer-based plans, and UHC—fail toprotect HCWs from catastrophic health costs. This brief examines the coverage gap, itsimplications, and policy actions to safeguard the health workforce.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Public Policy, Workforce, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

44. How can India Create More Jobs? Unleashing the 1.4 billion: A Blueprint for India s Job Led Resurrection

Author:
Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper discusses that while mature firms are becoming “net job destroyers” as they automate, it is the young, agile “Ojazelles” — firms less than five years old — that are currently breathing life into the economy, creating 45% of all new jobs. Yet, these young job creators are being strangled by “Structural Brakes”: a Collateral Trap that prizes ancestral land over fresh ideas, and a Regulatory Tax that punishes firms for growing. The paper proposes a New Social Compact to release these brakes. By leveraging India’s world leading Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), we can bypass the old “Land Finance Nexus” and move to Information Based Lending, where a young person’s talent and data become their new collateral.
Topic:
Economy, Tax Systems, Labor Market, Lending, and Jobs
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

45. Macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal consolidation measures in EU countries

Author:
Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction, covering 12 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. Our results for the short to medium run show that fiscal consolidations (a) lower real output; (b) raise the unemployment rate; (c) increase income inequality; and d) reduce consumer price inflation. Contractionary macroeconomic effects are stronger during recessions than during non-recession periods.
Topic:
European Union, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Unemployment, and Fiscal Consolidation
Political Geography:
Europe

46. Pugwash workshop on Nordic Security: Deterrence and Risk Reduction

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
With much of the arms control architecture dismantled in recent years, there is an urgent need to assess common interests, redefine security priorities, and identify workable approaches to reduce nuclear dangers between NATO and Russia. In particular, the Arctic and Baltic sub-regions have become unformed strategic spaces, creating novel escalation risks. This project will map the impact of NATO membership on the security policy of Nordic states on issues such as Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), military readiness for article 5 commitments, and examine prospects for nuclear risk reduction and arms control initiatives.
Topic:
Deterrence, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Nordic Nations, Russia, and Europe

47. Advancing Accountability in Development Finance: The Sandra Smithey Fellowship

Author:
Rachel Nadelman and Anushka Bose
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
The Sandra N. Smithey Fellowship for Equity and Accountability in International Development was created to honor the career of Sandra Smithey, particularly her legacy in amplifying frontline voices that champion transparent and accountable approaches to development finance. Between 2023 and 2025, the Smithey Fellowship, administered by the Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University, provided support to eight advocates advancing accountability in development finance. The central premise of the Fellowship is that accountability work is most effective when driven by those directly affected by development decisions and supported by flexible, trust-based funding. ARC worked with each of the fellows to define their own strategic goals and approaches within the time or resources available, seeking to ensure that each could meet the most pressing opportunities or challenges they faced. It provided them with significant flexibility to make mid-course changes to respond to political realities on the ground. The philosophy of “putting the fellows first” resulted in eight bespoke fellowships that reflected the breadth of civil society efforts to promote community- and context-based accountability in international development finance. Across these experiences, several key lessons emerge: Flexibility is a foundation for impact and sustainability. When fellows were given space to adapt to rapidly changing contexts, they achieved outcomes that rigid programs might have constrained. Altering conventional fellowship designs can change the balance in north-south knowledge hierarchies. An adaptable fellowship structure enabled some fellows to pursue their projects whilst embedded in their local communities, accessing support where their work was already taking shape. Translating knowledge can enable power shifts. Fellows who converted technical or bureaucratic language into practical tools enabled communities to engage institutions on their own terms. Collaboration is a vehicle for continuity of both projects and relationships. Collaboration among mentors, allies, and civil society organizations extended the reach of individual projects and embedded learning in broader movements. Longer-term influence depended on intentional efforts to maintain networks, communication, and financial stability after formal support ended. Enabling frontline expertise to shape accountability narratives can effectively support existing movements for rights and remedy. The fellows demonstrated that it is those closest to injustice that have the insight and credibility to define what accountability should mean in their own contexts as a basis for transformative change. This Accountability Note describes the work of these fellows and explores how a targeted package of direct funding, reflecting the fellows’ priorities and accompanied by trusted partners, enabled them to respond effectively to new and changing conditions. Ultimately, the Smithey Fellowship demonstrated that modest, well-structured support, grounded in trust, autonomy, and solidarity, can enable progress towards accountability and enable advocates to define and pursue their own paths in building durable movements for justice.
Topic:
Accountability, Sustainability, Fellowships, and Development Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. Compounded Vulnerability: Spatial Patterns of Energy Burden, Heat Exposure, and Pollution in New York City

Author:
Ximena Aristizabal and Paola Jaimes
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Energy insecurity and climate risk increasingly intersect in urban areas, yet they are often treated as separate challenges. This paper examines how household energy affordability stress, extreme heat exposure, and ambient air pollution overlap across urban space, using New York City as a case study. We introduce the concept of compounded vulnerability to describe neighborhoods where high energy burden and high heat exposure coincide, potentially intensifying environmental and health risks. Drawing on tract-level energy burden estimates, satellite-derived surface temperature measures, and summer PM2.5 concentrations, we combine a place-based interpretation of urban infrastructure and historical disinvestment with a tract-level empirical analysis of co-located risks. We document spatial co-location of economic and environmental stressors: neighborhoods facing higher energy burden are, on average, hotter, and areas experiencing joint exposure to heat and energy stress are also situated in environments characterized by elevated summer pollution. These patterns point to a plausible urban mechanism through which climatic extremes interact with energy systems and the built environment, shaping unequal exposure during periods of peak stress.
Topic:
Climate Change, Pollution, Vulnerability, Energy Security, and Heat
Political Geography:
New York, North America, and United States of America

49. The Under-theorisation of Dollar Dominance

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The recent period has seen an upsurge in predictions that the dollar's international dominance will at some point be challenged by a rival currency, notably the euro. This paper counters these predictions. It argues that the overestimation of the euro's ability to challenge dollar dominance is due to the under-theorisation of the foundations of that dominance, the root problem being macroeconomic theories' tradition of taking the household investor to be the representative investor when it should in reality be an institutional asset manager. If financial securities are viewed through the lens of the institutional investor it becomes clear that there can be no exodus from the dollar because it becomes clear that foreign investors remain attracted to the US capital market for reasons as much to do with its mass and consequent gravitational force as to do with a shortage of securities that can be supplied by other capital markets.
Topic:
Political Economy, Investment, Macroeconomics, Currency, Dollar, Euro, and Capital Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Contesting and Reassessing the 'Too Much Finance' Hypothesis: A Literature Review

Author:
Tania Rojas
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper reviews recent contributions that reassess and contest the “too much finance” hypothesis. It surveys a predominantly empirical body of work that, in contrast to earlier studies focused mainly on advanced economies, increasingly incorporates developing and less-developed regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that an inverted-U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth is more consistently identified in studies of advanced economies. In contrast, analyses of samples of less-developed countries more frequently report positive linear or U-shaped relationships, pointing to conditions of “too little finance.” The review also documents methodological shifts in the literature, including a growing adoption of nonlinear modeling strategies, the use of alternative measures of financial development, and a greater focus on mediating factors in the finance-growth nexus. The paper concludes that a clear consensus remains elusive. The literature faces persistent methodological challenges, sensitivity to model specification and sample composition, and a prevailing emphasis on empirical estimation rather than theoretical discussion.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Literature Review, and Financial Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

51. Using Minerals and Energy to Rebuild the U.S.-South Africa Relationship

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States is quietly losing access to the minerals that underpin its defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization agenda—not through geopolitical confrontation, but through commercial neglect. South Africa is the dominant U.S. supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, manganese, and military-grade vanadium, and no allied nation comes close to matching its combination of mineral wealth, processing capacity, and technical expertise. Yet rising energy costs and crumbling infrastructure are pushing South Africa’s processing sector toward closure, and without intervention, that capacity will continue migrating to China by default. As political tensions between Washington and Pretoria have intensified, it is worth remembering what is actually at stake: a supply relationship built over more than a century that would be extraordinarily costly to lose and nearly impossible to replace.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

52. Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh - democracy restored by revolution

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The first democratic elections held in Bangladesh for 18 years, on 12 February this year, were won by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tariq Zia Rahman. This marks the end of the transition period following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 and the rebirth of democracy. The biggest challenges for the new government will be to strengthen the rule of law, accelerate economic growth and improve relations with India. The EU, which supported the transition process, should become more involved in assisting the democratic government and economic cooperation.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

53. Avoiding a Long War - Objectives and Conditions for the US Attack on Iran

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The American operation in Iran may be prolonged, lasting several months instead of the planned few weeks. The low public support of Americans for intervention and the economic effects of rising oil prices are unlikely to change the US administration’s stance. Difficulties in completely eliminating the threats posed by Iran may prompt Donald Trump to increase military involvement, including the use of special forces or the launch of a ground invasion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

54. Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-India Trade Agreement

Author:
Patryk Kugiel and Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The most important outcome of the 16th EU–India summit, which took place on January 27 in New Delhi, was the announcement of an agreement on a trade deal. When it comes into force, it will create one of the largest free trade areas in the world and open up a huge Indian market for goods and services from the EU. At a time of growing protectionism in international trade and power-based politics, strengthening economic ties between the EU and India takes on a strategic dimension.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

55. The Impact of Purges in the Chinese Army on Its Effectiveness

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Xi Jinping, as the Party’s secretary general, continues to strengthen his personal oversight of the Chinese armed forces, as evidenced by disciplinary actions against Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Combined with the purges that began in 2022, the growing atmosphere of uncertainty, and the increasing pressure to demonstrate loyalty to Xi, this raises the risk that the authorities will misjudge the condition of their armed forces. This may increase the likelihood of escalation, for example, towards Taiwan.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Reform, Xi Jinping, Escalation, Loyalty, and Purge
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

56. Diplomacy in the Foreground. The New EU Migration Policy Framework

Author:
Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The migration, asylum and visa strategies, presented at the end of January this year by the European Commission, set the framework for EU migration policy for the coming years. According to both documents' assumptions, migration diplomacy is intended to support the Union's security and global competitiveness priorities. The planned reforms aim to eliminate abuses of the asylum and visa system and to attract skilled workers and investment to the EU. The implementation of the strategy will be challenged by both instability in Europe's neighbourhood and the persistent reluctance of member states to accept migrants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Asylum, Visa, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

57. The war in Iran: a test of the Gulf states' economic resilience

Author:
Julia Sochacka
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Forecasts of the long-term economic consequences of the war in Iran for the Gulf states are unequivocally negative. The scale of the losses depends on whether the strategies for building economic resilience implemented by these countries can withstand the shock caused by regional destabilisation. Faced with Iran taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU’s top priority in the short term will be to ensure energy security, and in the long term to diversify its economic partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Economics, European Union, Resilience, Energy, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

58. Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Heightens Tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on 26 December last year triggered a series of dangerous processes in the Horn of Africa. These could lead to an escalation of armed conflicts within Somaliland’s declared borders and in its immediate vicinity. The EU should be guided in this matter by the criteria of legality and stability in the wider Horn of Africa.
Topic:
European Union, Borders, Armed Conflict, and Recognition
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Somaliland

59. Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programs and household resilience in Malawi

Author:
Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Francesco Burchi, Sophia Schubert, and Donald Makoka
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
One of the main arguments for implementing public works programs (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programs themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of program budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs' effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi's Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Program (CS-EPWP) – a program recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households' capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, although further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximize the impact of climate-smart public works programs, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Public Works
Political Geography:
Africa and Malawi

60. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?

Author:
Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – ​​the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
Topic:
Development and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

61. Geopolitics and development in Central Asia: exploring opportunities for middle powers

Author:
Hyeyoung Woo
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is emphasizing a sustainable infrastructure and governance-oriented approach; the US is expected to catalyze private investment rather than direct aid; China deepens its regional presence through the Belt and Road Initiative; while Russia leverages historical and security ties to maintain influence. Meanwhile, middle powers – countries that do not wield vast influence like major powers but possess substantial capacity to shape international events – are exploring new opportunities for engagement. Türkiye positions itself as a bridge between advanced economies and the Global South, emphasizing connectivity and energy cooperation through the Middle Corridor and the Organization of Turkic States. South Korea's 2025 ODA Strategy for Central Asia identifies the region as a strategic partner for shared growth, integrating pragmatic diplomacy with value-based cooperation. By leveraging their soft power and policy experience, these middle powers offer a distinctive model for development partnership. Central Asian governments are responding to a changing international environment by diversifying partnerships through regional integration and more strategic engagement with development partners.
Topic:
Development, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Strategic Partnerships, Middle Powers, and Private Investment
Political Geography:
Central Asia

62. The European strategic approach to technological security: the challenges posed by China

Author:
Earl Wang
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
[1] Not only the US, but the EU and its Member States are also facing Chinese restrictions on foreign critical tech infrastructure. European telecom companies such as Nokia and Ericsson witness a drop by two-thirds in their market shares in China as compared to 2020. On the other way around, Chinese ‘high-risk suppliers’ of telecom networks such as Huawei and ZTE only encountered a 5-10% decline in Europe since EU institution and countries adopted the 5G cybersecurity toolbox in 2020. When it comes to European security in the cyber realm, we can also observe direct Chinese threats. Recent public cases of cyberattacks against France and the Czech Republic reminded us – again – of cybersecurity challenges from China which was also underlined by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Among other topics, critical technologies, cyber and digital infrastructure top the EU’s list of tech security preoccupation with regard to China. This paper provides an analysis of the strategic formulation of EU institutions and European countries on tech security vis-à-vis China from 2013 to 2022. Cases of countries covered in the paper include France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom. The paper is structured as follows. The first part studies the gradual awareness of security implications of Chinese investment in European critical technologies following China’s Made In China 2025 policy. In the second part, the paper examines the security threats posed by Chinese companies’ engagement in European digital infrastructure and the coordinated approach of the EU to secure 5G networks. The third part introduces the EU framework for investment screening as a new tool to address security concerns deriving from foreign investment in and acquisition of critical technologies and digital infrastructure. In the fourth part, the paper investigates European cybersecurity agencies and how cybersecurity has become a fast-growing concern of the EU and European countries in its relations with China. This paper showcases that the European Union and its Member States have incorporated the increasing link between security and technology in their strategic formulation of policy on China. More importantly, the effectiveness of the EU’s strategy in tech security highly relies on the coordination and cooperation among Member States and between the EU and national levels.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
China and Europe

63. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

64. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:
Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

65. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:
Denis Foretia
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

66. Advancing Gender, Climate, and Security in the UN Security Council: A Blueprint for Action

Author:
Jess Keller
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security presents recommendations for advancing gender, climate, and security in the UN Security Council and opportunities for Member States and other relevant stakeholders to drive progress on these interconnected challenges. Despite growing recognition of how climate change multiplies risk and poses a threat to international peace and security, efforts to make climate change a standing item on the Security Council’s agenda have failed. Climate change disproportionately impacts women and threatens their security, yet frameworks like the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda have been slow to integrate climate considerations into thematic resolutions and National Action Plans (NAPs) on WPS. The international community must rapidly scale-up efforts to bridge these policy gaps and holistically address challenges at the nexus of gender, climate, and security. This policy brief explores best practices and offers specific recommendations for the Security Council, Member States, and international actors to integrate gender-responsive climate considerations into global peace and security efforts. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Peace, UN Security Council, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Factsheet: Alice Weidel

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Alice Weidel is the co-chairwoman of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD), a far-right political party in Germany and the first far-right nationalist party to enter the German parliament since World War II. Under the leadership of Weidel, the party has become the second strongest force following the national elections in February 2025. Weidel has a long history of anti-Muslim statements and support for discriminatory policies targeting Muslims. She argues that Islam is incompatible with the German constitution and European values, and is also connected to several anti-Muslim actors.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Alice Weidel
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

68. Factsheet: Tomio Okamura

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tomio Okamura is a far-right Czech politician who founded the anti-elitist and anti-Muslim party, Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, SPD). He has made comments that promote anti-Muslim tropes and demonize Muslims and actively advocates for the Czech Republic to exit from the European Union. Following the 2024 European Parliament elections, Okamura joined the right-wing group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, which includes several political parties that support discriminatory policies targeting Muslims.
Topic:
Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Political Parties, and Tomio Okamura
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

69. Factsheet: Jordan Bardella

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Jordan Bardella is the party chairman of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) and also the leader of Patriots for Europe (PfE) for the legislative period of 2024 – 2029. In 2024, he ran for the office of the French Prime Minister. Bardella wants to “curb immigration” and warns “against Islamization.”
Topic:
Immigration, Islamophobia, Political Parties, National Rally (Rassemblement National), and Jordan Bardella
Political Geography:
Europe and France

70. Factsheet: Elon Musk

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Elon Musk is a billionaire entrepreneur and the CEO or top executive of multiple high-profile companies, including X (formerly Twitter), Tesla and SpaceX. He has a documented history of amplifying anti-Muslim tropes, supporting individuals and organizations that promote Islamophobia, and making statements that minimize or dismiss concerns about anti-Muslim racism. His actions and influence have contributed to the normalization of Islamophobic rhetoric in public discourse. In 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Billionaires, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

71. Factsheet: Tom Trento

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tom Trento is an American conservative activist who has a history of making anti-Muslim statements, including promoting a narrative that constructs Islam as a major threat to America. He is the founder and executive director of The United West, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an organization “stoking anti-Muslim hate for over a decade.”
Topic:
Conservatism, Islamophobia, Activism, Right-Wing Politics, and Tom Trento
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

72. Factsheet: Pete Hegseth

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News political commentator, author, and former Army National Guard officer who served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has tattoos that are associated with white nationalism and has a history of making Islamophobic statements. Hegseth has also been accused of sexual assault and has had several incidences of alleged sexist behavior. In 2025, Hegseth was confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Military, Pete Hegseth, and White Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

73. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

74. Factsheet: Mario Kunasek

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
IMPACT: Mario Kunasek is a member of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and is the current Governor of Styria. From December 2017 to May 2019, he was the Austrian Defense Minister under a coalition government of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and his own FPÖ. Kunasek has a long history of tying Muslims to terrorism, fearmongering about “radical Islam” and “Islamism,” and supporting anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and Mario Kunasek
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

75. AI Governance and Geopolitical Challenges: What’s Next after Italy’s G7 Presidency?

Author:
Federica Marconi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Profound technological developments have marked recent years, coupled with increasing geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation driven by rising tensions between major powers. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), have been at the core of global competition due to their potential for enhancing productivity and fostering innovation. The technological race has started to extend also to the definition of global AI governance frameworks, with the United States, the EU and China pursuing divergent regulatory approaches and striving to influence countries, especially in the Global South, that are looking at the existing models for their national regulatory systems. Against this backdrop, international fora such as the G7 are called upon to play a key role in fostering dialogue on how to reconcile these divergent perspectives and shape global governance for AI.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Governance, G20, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Italy and Global Focus

76. Italy’s Foreign Policy in the ‘Super-election Year’ 2024

Author:
Leo Goretti and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This document provides an English summary of the 2024 edition of IAI’s annual report on Italian foreign policy titled: “L’Italia nell’anno delle grandi elezioni”, developed with the support of the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. The 2024 edition of the report, edited by Ferdinando Nelli Feroci and Leo Goretti, features the contributions of a group of IAI researchers coordinated by the Institute’s Italian Foreign Policy programme. The report covers all the core areas of Italian foreign policy, beginning with the relations with the European Union and European allies and those with the US at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term. Specific attention is paid to the two major crises in the closest neighbourhood of the country, analysing Italy’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its position vis-à-vis the Israel-Gaza conflict. An in-depth focus is devoted to the government’s pivot to Africa under the umbrella of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, as well as the relations with the People’s Republic of China and the Indo-Pacific region at large. Structural policies are then addressed, from the defence and aerospace policy to the government’s approach to the energy and climate crises to migration policy. Finally, some considerations are made on the 2024 Italian G7 Presidency and the overall Italian involvement in multilateral fora.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Donald Trump, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

77. Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém: Italy’s G7 Presidency on Climate and Energy

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A main priority of the 2024 Italian G7 presidency was to build stronger partnerships with African countries across a number of policy areas, including climate and energy. Italy pushed forward several G7 initiatives to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and resource scarcity in developing regions as well as to enhance energy access in Africa. Despite the relevance of these pledges, it is still unclear how these initiatives can align with, and maximise the impact of, existing climate- and energy-related projects set out in other fora. Still, the Italian G7 was successful in shedding light on the need for stronger intersectionality in G7 processes – finance, climate, infrastructure, food – and in advancing synergies with parallel G20 and climate conferences of the parties (COP) discussions. Canada, South Africa and Brazil, respectively holding the 2025 G7, G20 and COP30 Presidencies, can build on the lesson of the Italian G7 presidency, especially in light of the decreasing attention that major powers such as the United States are paying to multilateral governance regimes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, G20, G7, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Italy

78. The G7 and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems’ Transformation: Lessons Learned from the Italian Presidency

Author:
Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy put a strong emphasis on food and nutrition security during its 2024 G7 Presidency, designing or scaling up plans to transform global food systems. Although the Italian presidency was able to gather consensus on key dimensions such as the food and climate nexus or development finance, structural weaknesses remain. Among them, the limited representation of Global South interests, the lack of space for civil society and farmers’ organisations in the decision-making process and the institutional rivalry between the Finance and the Development Tracks. While the G7 can more easily mobilise consensus and financial solutions to tackle global hunger, it has gradually lost ground to settings such as the G20 or the UN climate conference generally known as COP. The G7 must align its food-security solutions with those designed by other global partners (the G20 Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, or the EU’s Global Gateway) that can more effectively address food insecurity, while tackling all the barriers that make it too risky for local actors and the private sector to invest in sustainable agri-food systems transformation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, and G7
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

79. The New Partnership among Italy, Japan and the UK on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) launched by Italy, Japan and the UK in 2022 represents a novel partnership among the three countries for the development and production of a next-generation crewed fighter aircraft. A partnership based on equality of rights for and investments by the founding partners, as well as on the principles of Freedom of Action and Freedom of Modification at national level – that means full operational and technological sovereignty on the core platform, differently from the F-35 experience. As such, GCAP presents new challenges and opportunities in political, military and industrial terms, in addition to the programme’s tight schedule and high level of technological ambitions. The cooperation accelerated in 2024 with the establishment of a dedicated international governmental organisation to manage the programme, and the agreement on a joint venture among the three major companies involved on equal foot from the respective countries. This study provides an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the specific British, Italian and Japanese ways to GCAP, of the programme’s politico-institutional governance and industrial architecture, as well as of training issue and the cross-sectorial implications for Italy. Moreover, a dedicated chapter focuses on the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the US Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes in a comparative perspective. The conclusions outline 15 policy recommendations for Italy concerning GCAP.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and F-35
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

80. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:
Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

81. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:
Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

82. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:
Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:
History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

83. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:
Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

84. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:
Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

85. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

86. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

87. Do alternative households improve paid employment outcomes? A comparative analysis of same-sex partnerships in Brazil

Author:
Cicero Braga and James Heintz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper explores the labor market implications of household formation among same-sex married couples in Brazil, comparing them with different-sex married couples and unpartnered individuals. Using data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC) from 2016 to 2019, the study provides a descriptive overview of same-sex households and analyzes patterns of partnership formation, racial and educational endogamy/homogamy, and paid employment outcomes. Despite data limitations, findings suggest that same-sex couples may benefit from household formation by adopting alternatives to traditional patriarchal dynamics. Women in same-sex partnerships exhibit greater labor market participation and earnings, while men may experience reduced pressure to conform to traditional breadwinner roles. All married/partnered individuals earn a wage premium, relative to unpartnered individuals, but this premium varies by type of couple, sex, and the partner’s education and employment status. The paper highlights the importance of recognizing diverse household structures to fully understand economic well-being and inequities. Further research on the broader spectrum of "families of choice" is necessary to better capture the economic experiences of the LGBTI community in Brazil.
Topic:
Employment, LGBT+, Economic Inequality, Labor Market, Household, and Gender Roles
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

88. Investing in a Green Future: Finance, Industrial Policy and the Green transition

Author:
Ramaa Vasudevan
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
We present a framework to assess green climate finance and the pathways to building a climate aligned financial system. This would involve the strategic reorientation of central bank interventions, national development banks and multilateral and regional banks and coherent purposive collaborations between these institutions and interventions to decisively reshape the contemporary global financial system that is out of tune with the long-term imperatives of climate action. Aligning finance to climate goals at the necessary scale, pace and direction requires the calibration of financial flows across three axes: ‘public-private’; ‘real-financial’ and ‘national-international’. Along the first axis the naturedepleting, climate imperiling logic of short-term private profitability needs to be contained in order to pursue the public priorities of climate action. Along the second axis, policy efforts have to be geared to ensuring that financial flows are financing investments in climate mitigation and adaptation and not simply providing more fodder for the global portfolio glut and financial accumulation. Finally, along the third axis warding global funding and support on appropriate terms has to be provided to the most vulnerable countries while buttressing national ownership of the green mission.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

89. The Distribution of Climate Finance among Annex-II Countries: A CBDR-RC Approach for Partial Funding of the Developing Countries

Author:
Shouvik Chakraborty
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Developing nations face the significant challenge of reconciling their efforts in climate change mitigation with the urgent need for financial resources to adapt to climate-related disasters, achieve sustainable development, and stabilize their economies. The financial requirements for addressing climate impacts span various sectors, including energy transition, energy efficiency, transportation, agriculture, forestry, other land use (AFOLU), and adaptation strategies. Estimates provided by reputable international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that the annual global climate finance needs may range from $4.2 trillion to $5.7 trillion. Within this framework, the share allocated to developing countries is estimated to constitute approximately $1.9 trillion to $2.0 trillion annually, mainly to support mitigation efforts. It is widely acknowledged that developing countries are unlikely to meet these financial demands independently. Consequently, it is projected that around $1 trillion must be sourced from advanced economies, particularly the AnnexII countries. This paper introduces a methodology grounded in the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability (CBDR-RC). It facilitates a structured distribution of financing responsibilities among Annex II nations. The methodology incorporates the notion of historical responsibility, quantified as carbon debt, while also measuring capability through a balanced consideration of the wealth and gross domestic product (GDP) of the AnnexII countries. The analysis conducted reveals that the United States of America (USA) is required to contribute nearly half of the total financial obligations among the AnnexII countries, with the remaining funds to be apportioned among other nations within this group.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Climate Finance, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

90. Navigating Debt Sustainability: An In-Depth Analysis of the IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework and Its Critique

Author:
Hasan Cömert, Güney Düzçay, and T. Sabri Öncü
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the IMF's debt sustainability analyses (DSAs), delving into their methodologies and implications and highlighting their problems. Since 2002, the DSAs have been the cornerstone of the IMF programs, providing the primary analytical tool to justify and determine the paths and targets specified. Although the DSAs evolved significantly over time, they have severe foundational problems. They rely heavily on strong assumptions and staff judgments, and thereby, they are primarily non-transparent. Secondly, there are significant issues regarding the conduct of DSAs. They have grown excessively complex, hindering consensus on components without necessarily improving assessment quality. Thirdly, the IMF makes very high-stakes decisions with low precision, relying on persistent over-optimism in growth forecasting and paving the way for tighter fiscal policies. Fourthly, the debt dynamics equation of DSAs is inconsistent with stock flow dynamics because it focuses heavily on the primary balance as the main driver. Fifthly, the IMF's framework does not pay enough attention to the underlying reasons for accumulating external debt in developing nations. It often treats external borrowing as a substitute for domestic debt without accounting for the asymmetric international financial architecture.
Topic:
Debt, Fiscal Policy, Sustainability, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

91. Introducing the Response to Sponsorship Dataset: Determinants of Responses by Target States to State Sponsors of Rebel Groups

Author:
Elif Hatun Kiliçbeylşa
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the sponsorship of rebel groups have focused on understanding why and how supporter states help rebels, whether this engagement benefits the rebels, and the effects of sponsorship on the conflict outcomes. By comparison, the responses of target states to sponsorship behavior have been neglected despite the possibility of interstate crises, disputes, and conflict due to the sponsorship. This study introduces a new dataset, the Response Sponsorship Dataset (RSD), which measures target states’ responses toward state sponsors of rebel groups intending to terminate the sponsorship. The data includes information on the responses of 58 target states to 102 supporter states concerning the support of 150 rebel groups between 1991 and 2010, comprising 3719 observations. The RSD identifies diplomatic, economic, militarized, domestic, covert responses and inaction as target state responses as well as classifying them as coercive or non-coercive based on target states’ foreign policy engagements with sponsors. The RSD provides new opportunities for researchers and policymakers to analyze target responses with regards to conflict management and foreign policy as well as promising future research on support termination.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Alliance, Rivalry, Proxy Groups, and State Sponsorship
Political Geography:
Global Focus

92. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:
Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Africa

93. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

94. Southeast Asia’s Renewable Energy Ambition: The Case of Vietnam

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Southeast Asia has made remarkable progress in expanding renewable energy sources. Facilitated by the various national policies that are in place to encourage their development, the share of renewable energy sources in the region’s installed capacity has increased significantly, rising from around 20 percent to 33 percent in the last twenty years, and is expected to surpass the regional 35 percent target by 2025. While the regional figures look promising, individual countries differ in terms of speed, scale, and the choice of renewable energy technologies developed. Vietnam is a forerunner of renewable energy expansion in Southeast Asia. Significant investments have been made in utility-scale solar and wind power projects since mid-2010s, particularly in provinces with high renewable energy potential such as Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Bac Lieu and Quang Tri. The country added 1,718 Megawatt (MW) of hydropower and 3,405MW of wind power between 2020 and 2022, which accounted for around half of additional hydropower capacity and all of additional wind power capacity in Southeast Asia during that period. Similarly, the country’s solar power development made up approximately 70 percent of additional solar power capacity in Southeast Asia between 2013 and 2022.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Investment, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

95. Assad Regime's Rapid Fall Rattles Russia's Middle East Strategy

Author:
Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria seriously weakens Russia’s position in the Middle East and its ability to provide security to its allies. After 13 years of supporting the dictatorship, Russia is also losing its ability to influence the political situation in Syria and its neighbourhood The Russian government’s priority is to keep the right to use the military bases in the country—a naval base in Tartus and an air base in Khmeimim. Losing them would make it difficult for Russia to conduct military operations in the Mediterranean and Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, Influence, and Military Bases
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Syria

96. Moldova and Separatist Transnistria Facing Severe Energy Crisis

Author:
Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since 1 January, Ukraine—struggling to fight off the Russian invasion—has not extended permission for the transit of Russian gas to Transnistria, which had received free supplies from Russia, leading to an energy crisis. Moldova, in turn, has lost access to cheap electricity produced by the Transnistrian gas-fired power plant at Kuchurgan (MGRES), causing energy prices to rise dramatically. This weakens the prospects for the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) to remain in power after this year’s parliamentary elections.
Topic:
Separatism, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Moldova and Transnistria

97. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

98. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

99. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

100. U.S. Interest in Greenland Reflects the Ongoing Competition in the Arctic

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska and Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested his intention to attach Greenland to the U.S., a move that has met with opposition from the Greenlandic and Danish governments. The pressure from the U.S. is one manifestation of its aspirations to strengthen its position in the North Atlantic, both because of the strategic importance of the island and the growing international rivalries in the Arctic. The situation will require greater EU and NATO involvement in the High North, as well as consideration of this perspective by countries outside the region, such as Poland.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America