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18751. Balancing Positive and Negative Integration: The Regulatory Options for Europe

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
During the golden years from the 1950s to the mid-1970s, the industrial nations of Western Europe had the chance to develop specifically national versions of the capitalist welfare state - and their choices were in fact remarkably different (Esping-Andersen 1990). In spite of the considerable differences between the "Social-Democratic", "Corporatist" or "Liberal" versions, however, all were remarkably successful in maintaining full employment and promoting economic growth, while also controlling, in different ways and to different degrees, the destructive tendencies of unfettered capitalism in the interest of specific social, cultural, and/or ecological values (Scharpf 1991a; Merkel 1993). It was not fully realized at the time, however, how much the success of market-correcting policies did in fact depend on the capacity of the territorial state to control its economic boundaries. Once this capacity is lost, countries are forced into a competition for locational advantage which has all the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game (Sinn 1994). It reduces the freedom of national governments and unions to raise the regulatory and wage costs of national firms above the level prevailing in competing locations. Moreover, and if nothing else changes, the "competition of regulatory systems" that is generally welcomed by neoliberal economists (Streit/Mussler 1995) and politicians may well turn into a downward spiral of competitive deregulation and tax cuts in which all competing countries will find themselves reduced to a level of protection that is in fact lower than that preferred by any of them.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

18752. Employment and the Welfare State: A Continental Dilemma

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Estimates of the comparative health of the North American and Western European economies and societies have had their fashion cycles - from Servain-Schreiber's warnings that Europe was falling behind, rather than catching up with, American technological leadership in the 1960s, to European exasperation over American trade and budget deficits in the 1970s, to anxieties over Eurosclerosis in the early 1980s and over the American loss of international competitiveness in the late 1980s. Presently, by all accounts, the sick man is again Europe, with higher unemployment and much lower rates of job creation over the last two decades or so. The main problem is a rising level of long-term unemployment that mainly affects unskilled workers and, in most countries, young job seekers with low levels of schooling.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Political Economy
Political Geography:
America, Europe, North America, and Western Europe

18753. Democracy and Globalization

Author:
David Held
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
One of the most conspicuous features of politics at the turn of the millennium is the emergence of issues which transcend national frontiers. Processes of economic internationalization, the problem of the environment and the emergence of regional and global networks of communication are increasingly matters of concern for the international community as a whole. The nature and limits of national democracies have to be reconsidered in relation to processes of social and economic globalization; that is, in relation to shifts in the transcontinental or interregional scale of human social organization and of the exercise of social power. This paper seeks to explore these changing circumstances and to examine, albeit tentatively, their implications for democratic theory.
Topic:
Democratization, Globalization, and Politics

18754. Regulatory Competition and International Cooperation

Author:
Philipp Genschel and Thomas Plumper
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Recent research has shown that regulatory competition does not necessarily lead to downward pressures on regulation, but may at times also push the level of regulation upwards. Extending David Vogel's "California effect" argument, this paper shows that such upward pressure may not only result directly from the dynamics of the competitive process but also from international cooperation. Evidence from two case studies on international capital market regulation is used to identify the conditions under which cooperation in the shadow of regulatory competition is likely to succeed or fail. The successful multilateral standardisation of banking capital requirements in the BIS is compared to failed attempts to harmonise interest taxation across EC member states.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
California

18755. Electricity: Liberal Futures

Author:
Walt Patterson
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Like the international dimension of electricity discussed in Working Paper 1, the liberal dimension of electricity has emerged only recently, at least as a recognized concept. However, whereas the international dimension is genuinely new, the dimension now characterized as 'liberal' needs closer examination. The language of policy discourse is not always consistent. Until the 1990s, policy analysts habitually referred to the electricity industry as 'conservative', in the sense that it was resistant to change and deeply wary of risk. However, those who first acted to 'liberalize' electricity were themselves 'conservative', in conventional political terms, notably the governments of Chile and the UK in the 1980s. That apparent irony in itself suggests that 'liberalizing' electricity is a more subtle and complex process than the term itself might indicate.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Chile

18756. Westphalia in Europe as West Failure Abroad? A Comparative Study of the Fate of the Nation-State in Non-Europe

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Conventionally viewing the state as a black box and focusing almost exclusively on its outward orientation, the Westphalia paradigm, I argue, has outlived its purpose, and may even be misleading when applied to the more porous and democratic state today. Rather than measure state viability in terms of power balances abroad, three constituent elements extracted from the Westphalia literature are used to evaluate internal state viability instead: the relationship between the nation and the state, the capacities of the state itself, and the state within a collectivity. Whereas the first is operationalized in terms of Buzan's four-fold typology, the second focuses on how two forms of internal divisions have been resolved—between city and country interests over policy-making, and between various classes in society through governmental income redistribution programs—while the third evaluates the propensity of the state to delegate loyalties to any supranational entity in the 1990s. Over 160 sovereign countries are pooled into 5 geographical regions for the analysis. The results strengthen the above argument, and generally portray the exceptionalism of West Europe: It is the global hub of established national states, even though there are more state nations worldwide whose historical emergence accented internal development over external security considerations; viable states, measured in terms of established democracies, urban preponderance over policy making, and welfare redistribution; and transferring loyalties beyond the state.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Maryland, and Westphalia

18757. Coping with US - Mexican Interdependence: The NAFTA Response

Author:
Miquel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper examines the theoretical discussion on interdependence, and its use for analyzing US-Mexican economic relations. It combines interdependence's premises with other perspectives on the position of North American economies in the global marketplace, arguing that NAFTA is an institutional response to these developments.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, North America, and Mexico

18758. The Politics of NAFTA: Presidential use of Side Payments

Author:
Miquel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
In June 1990, President George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announced their intention to begin negotiating a free trade agreement. Canada joined the negotiations the following August. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provoked an intense lobbying campaign in the US Congress, in what became a major political battle for its congressional approval. Some economic interests would win, others would lose with NAFTA. Congress members were worried about the loss of American low-skilled jobs and environmental issues. Regional interests were voiced loudly in the House of Representatives. A loose coalition of interest groups, including the AFL-CIO, public interest groups, and environmental organizations, coordinated opposition to the agreement. On the pro-NAFTA side was an ad hoc group of corporations, labeled USA-NAFTA, which included the National Association of Manufacturers and the US Chamber of Commerce. The Mexican government mounted an extensive lobbying campaign in favor of the trade pact. After intense congressional lobbying, President Bush obtained fast-track negotiating authority for NAFTA. Negotiations concluded in August 1992, and the following December, Presidents Bush and Salinas, as well as Canada's Prime Minister Mulroney, signed the pact, Presidential candidate Bill Clinton, under intense pressure from key constituencies of the Democratic Party, supported NAFTA "in principle," but only if complementary agreements on labor and environmental issues were included. Once in the office, Clinton negotiated these "side agreements" with Mexico and Canada, but still, strong opposition to NAFTA continued. In order to win congressional votes needed for the pact's approval, President Clinton engaged in a series of political compromises or "side-payments" with legislators, being able to form a congressional bipartisan coalition that allowed NAFTA passage.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

18759. Taking the State Back Out? Comparing French Responses to Globalization in Agriculture and Shipping

Author:
Mark Aspinwall and Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
How autonomous is a state in today's highly interdependent international economy to pursue policies that diverge widely from the international norm? does the degree of autonomy vary for different domestic sectors? We adapt and apply Benjamin Cohen's unholy trinity model (1993), to a comparative assessment of how France responded to globalization over agriculture and shipping, focusing on three dimensions—investment, transaction costs, and government policy responses. Although France is reputed to possess a strong state machinery (Katzenstein, 1987; Wilson, 1987; Skocpol, 1985), our analysis raises qualifications. On the one hand, regardless of government policy intentions, we find irreversible forms of disinvestments in both sectors, though different in nature—geographic for shipping, and functional for agriculture; on the other, we also find continued dependence upon the state–for internal and endogenous, as well as external and exogenous, factors influence policy-making, the nature of these factors are different for the two sectors. We conclude by drawing implications of our findings for state-society relations and European integrations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and France

18760. Canadian Environmental Movement and Free Trade

Author:
Sofía Gallardo
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The concern for the quality of the environment reached significant proportions in the 1960's and 1970's throughout North America and Europe as other new social movements were emerging. Unlike some of the others, environmentalism has endured as a vital and major social phenomenon, one that has reoriented human perceptions, attitudes, and behavior.
Topic:
Environment and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and North America

18761. Old Wine in New Bottle? The Summit of the Americas in Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
What factors made the attainment of a regional trading bloc a priority at the Summit of the Americas? Why was it so inclusive a gathering? What are the prospects and problems of an American Free Trade Association? How can regionalism in this part of the world be explained theoretically?
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
America and North America

18762. Interest Groups in American Politics: Conceptual Elements and Key Literature

Author:
Miguel Angel Valverde
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to discuss some concepts and review relevant literature on interest groups in the United States, in order to provide a broad guide to the study of the topic. It aims to explore the main questions raised by their presence in the political arena as well as suggest some themes for future research.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and America

18763. Environmentalism, Free Trade and Regionalism in Theoretical Perspective: An Unholy Developmental Trinity?

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

18764. Assessing the Rules - Power Debate in Farm Trade: A Case Study of the Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Asking "How have trade disputes over agriculture been settled in North America?", this study examines 11 appeals made to binational panels established under Chapter 19 of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 1989. By disaggregating the process of dispute settlement into complaints, rulings, country responses, and overall settlement, it reassesses an old debate (whether dispute outcomes are influenced by collective rules or the pursuit of self-help) and sheds new light. Whereas extant studies make the argument, through a study of appeals to G.A.T.T., that collective rules temper the blind pursuit of self-help, this study makes the argument that self-help is equally important an explanation. Whereas the former focus on outcomes which are non-binding, this study focuses on outcomes which are binding. Implications are drawn, at a time when domestic interests, nationalistic sentiments, and supranational pursuits compete to influence policy outcomes at all levels, for agriculture, integration in North America, and dispute settlement at the multilateral level.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America

18765. Frameworks for Security and Integration in Europe: Region-Building in South-Eastern Europe

Author:
Dr. Renata Dwan and Dr. Andrew Cottey
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In 1997-98 the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) is running two projects on means for strengthening cooperation in Europe. The 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe' is a series of meetings funded by the European Union's PHARE/TACIS Democracy Programme. Ten meetings and workshops will examine the diverse range of security problems facing the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and possible cooperative solutions to these problems. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate). Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including (but not limited to) governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non-governmental representatives. IEWS is joined in organizing this Strategy Group series by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
Topic:
Security, Development, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Maryland

18766. Private Equity Investment in Hungary: the Competitive Edge as a Force for Innovation

Author:
Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
At the conference opening, György Surányi, President of the National Bank of Hungary, outlined Hungary's successful efforts to rejuvenate economic activity with the prospect of European Union membership approaching . Following the successful implementation of economic policies aimed at establishing a market economy, for the first time in 25 years Hungary is gradually moving towards sustainable economic growth. Real GDP gains of almost 4 percent per annum are evident without accompanying deterioration of the external accounts or increases in inflation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

18767. Post-totalitarian Legacies, Civil Society, and Democracy in Post-Communist Poland, 1989-1993

Author:
Grzegorz Ekiert and Jan Kubik
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:
The paper argues that a robust and assertive civil society has emerged in post-communist Poland during the first few years following the fall of state socialism. Civil society is defined as a specific social space and a set of specific social organizations. The most important factors shaping the character of this renewed civil society are the patterns of its institutionalization after 1989, the predominance of organizations inherited from the old regime, and the marginality of anti-systemic groups. The institutional patterns are shaped by the sectoral composition of the new civil society, the relationships among its various organizations, and by these organizations' links to such collective actors/institutions as political parties and state agencies. These patterns influence the quality of political participation and democratic performance.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

18768. Political Economy in Security Studies After the Cold War

Author:
Jonathan Kirshner
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:
In contemporary International Relations theory, there exists a sharp distinction between international political economy and security studies. This is largely a false distinction, however, a product of peculiar circumstances associated with the cold war, and one which is becoming increasingly anachronistic in the post-cold war era. In order to understand international relations in this era, a re-integration of the discipline is necessary.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, Globalization, and Political Economy

18769. Open Regionalism: Lessons from Latin America for East Asia

Author:
Clark Winton Reynolds
Publication Date:
08-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The process of regional integration is part of the reshaping of the international economic order at the end of the 20th century. Much if it is impelled by raw market forces, or what one may term 'silent integration.' In this process the increasingly liberalized movement of goods and services, factors of production (capital, technology, and labor through migration and as embodied in trade in goods and services), and tastes offers new prospects and challenges. There are opportunities for major increases in income and wealth for the most intrepid, skilled, mobile, and aggressive participants in the process. There are threats of lost income, power, prestige, values, and institutions for those left behind. There is a need to go behind the impulse of market forces, taking advantage of their dynamic but finding ways to manage interdependence so as to best reconcile differences among social groups, institutions, and values to ensure that the process of liberalized exchange produces gains that are equitable, stable, and sustainable.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, South America, and Latin America

18770. Liberals, Radicals, and Women's Citizenship in Chile, 1872-1930

Author:
Erika Maza Valenzuela
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes women's organizations in the anticlerical-and middle- to upper-class-segment of Chilean society from the late nineteenth century to 1930. It focuses on their leaders' positions regarding women's rights, especially the suffrage. The feminist organizations within the anticlerical segment developed later than the Catholic ones and they had less contact with women in the popular sectors. These organizations had varying degrees of anticlericalism. Some of their members were free thinkers, a few were Protestant, and many of them were Catholics who were critical of the clergy's influence in society and politics. This paper shows that, during the period studied here, the anticlerical leaders, both men and women, were opposed to granting women full suffrage rights. They argued that, before voting, women should be given their civil rights and access to secular education under state auspices. However, even after the Civil Code had been partially modified and the number of women with secular secondary education had become roughly equal to that of men in the mid 1920s, anticlerical leaders still only supported the vote for women in municipal elections. By enfranchising women only for local elections, anticlerical leaders-Liberals and Radicals-sought to 'educate' women politically while preventing them from tipping the balance of forces benefiting the Conservative Party in legislative and presidential elections. Catholic-Conservatives had been more inclusive of women in education, social life, and politics since the mid-nineteenth century, and for this reason they had a greater capacity to appeal for women's votes.
Topic:
Gender Issues and Government
Political Geography:
Latin America

18771. APEC beyond Economics: The Politics of APEC

Author:
Brian L. Job and Frank Langdon
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper deals with the history, formation, and objectives of APEC. It describes the tensions between the Anglo-Saxon and the East Asian APEC members and the clashes of interests between the large and small and developed and less developed nations, which show how precarious the formation of APEC was. Within the short term APEC does not seem destined to become an overarching regional, political, security, and economic institution. Indeed, certain forces within the region, such as increased arms acquisitions in some states, friction arising over trade disputes, protectionism, and investment flows, and tension between China and Taiwan, could hinder the objectives of the organization. It remains possible that the very process of finding common ground through APEC may contribute more to fostering community and to ensuring security in the region than the proposals actually agreed upon by all member nations.
Topic:
Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:
China and Europe

18772. An ASEAN Perspective on APEC

Author:
Yoji Akashi
Publication Date:
08-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper presents the history of APEC in terms of the different goals and fears of the participants and their perceptions of each others' agendas. The author contrasts the Western approach, as exemplified by the US push to institutionalize APEC and introduce binding, formal agreements, with the 'Asian way,' which emphasizes consensus, consultation, and flexibility. By reaching a better understanding of why various key players acted as they did in the past, the author seeks to provide a guide to what should and should not be expected regarding the breadth, specificity, and enforcement mechanisms of future regionwide trade agreements in the Pacific Rim. Ministers of trade and foreign affairs from twelve nations of the Pacific Rim gathered in Canberra in November 1989 to discuss trade liberalization and closer regional cooperation in such specific areas as investment, technology transfer, and manpower training and to plan a new organization that they hoped would shape the future of the world's most dynamic economic region, embracing 1.9 billion people whose combined economies accounted for 24% of world output.
Topic:
Security and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Southeast Asia

18773. Forever in the Shadow of Churchill?: Britain and the Memory of World War Two at the End of the Twentieth Century

Author:
Nile Gardiner
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies at Yale University
Abstract:
This paper examines recent debates in Britain surrounding the memory of the Second World War. Part one is an examination of the controversy sparked by the publication in 1993 of John Charmley's Churchill: The End of Glory, and Alan Clark's article in The Times, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision?”
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

18774. Global Trends 2010

Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and South America

18775. Report on Applying Military and Security Assets

Author:
Robert Chamberlain, Alexandra Cousteau, and Nathan Ruff
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
With the end of the Cold War, the United States military and intelligence communities have been searching for new enemies and new roles. The demise of the Soviet Union presented an opportunity to revisit traditional conceptions of security and consider new missions such as heightened counter-terrorist activities and protection of US firms against economic espionage. In this project, special attention has been given to the importance of environmental change. The exploration of linkages between environmental change and security has developed into a complex debate focused on two fundamental and interrelated questions: Is environmental change a "traditional" security threat? In any case, what role is best played by the military and intelligence communities?
Topic:
Security and Environment
Political Geography:
United States

18776. A Treaty on Global Climate Change: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
International treaties in pursuit of common endeavors can be classified into two categories: those that set mutually agreed national objectives and leave each signatory to pursue them in their own way; and those that define mutually agreed actions. The proposed treaty on global climate change falls into the first category with respect to greenhouse gas emissions by the rich countries. Stabilization of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases requires eventual engagement of developing countries. The proposed treaty, based on historical emission levels, does not provide a foundation acceptable to them. Indeed, there is unlikely to be any generally acceptable principle for allocating emission rights, potentially worth trillions of dollars, among rich and poor countries. This probable impossibility suggests a successful attack on greenhouse gas emissions, necessarily international in scope, must be through mutually agreed actions, such as a nationally-collected emissions tax, rather than through national emission targets.
Topic:
Environment and International Cooperation

18777. Conflict in Time and Space

Author:
Richard. Tucker and Nathaniel. Beck
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Scholars in international relations (IR) are increasingly using time-series cross-section data to analyze models with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS models). IR scholars generally employ a simple logit/probit to analyze such data. This procedure is inappropriate if the data exhibit temporal or spatial dependence. First, we discuss two estimation methods for modelling temporal dependence in BTSCS data: one promising based on exact modelling of the underlying temporal process which determines the latent, continuous, dependent variable; The second, and easier to implement, depends on the formal equivalence of BTSCS and discrete duration data. Because the logit estimates a discrete hazard in a duration context, this method adds a smoothed time term to the logit estimation. Second, we discuss spatial or cross-sectional issues, including robust standard errors and the modelling of effects. While it is not possible to use fixed effects in binary dependent variable panel models, such a strategy is feasible for IR BTSCS models. While not providing a model of spatial dependence, Huber's robust standard errors may well provide more accurate indications of parameter variability if the unit observations are intra-related. We apply these recommended techniques to reanalyses of the relationship between (1) democracy, interdependence and peace (Oneal, Oneal, Maoz and Russett); and (2) security and the termination of interstate rivalry (Bennett). The techniques appear to perform well statistically. Substantively, while democratic dyads do appear to be more peaceful, trade relations, as measured by Oneal, et al., do not decrease the likelihood of particpation in militarized disputes, Bennett's principal finding regarding security and rivalry termination is confirmed; his finding on common external threats, however, is not; his results on the influence of issue salience are even more robust.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations

18778. The Origins of Hungary's 1989 Electoral Law

Author:
John W. Schiemann and Kenneth Benoit
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Theories which explain the origins of institutions as the product of struggles for distributive advantage provide only a general framework with no conceptualization of the bargaining process and few applications to empirical cases. We address both problems and extend the distributive theory of institutional origins by drawing on a unique set of data to examine the creation of the Hungarian electoral law of 1989. Arguing that outcomes are shaped by four mechanisms arising from bargaining - time preferences, the credibility of threats and promises, mimicked fairness, and symmetrical division - we develop observable implications of these mechanisms and test them empirically by analyzing the bargaining which produced the multiple rules of Hungary's complex electoral system. Not only does the Hungarian case confirm the bargaining mechanism theory of institutional origins, but the theory also explains many curious features of the Hungarian electoral institutions, including its surprising combination of extraordinary complexity and unusual stability.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

18779. Modern U.S. Civil-Military Relations: Wielding the Terrible Swift Sword

Author:
David E. Johnson
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
On November 30, 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry testified before the House International Relations and National Security committees on the commitment of U.S. ground forces to the Former Yugoslavia. The commitment, crafted in Dayton, Ohio, had been avoided for some 4 years. Perry carefully discussed the mission, rules of engagement, and exit strategy for U.S. forces.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States and Yugoslavia

18780. Turkey: Thwarted Ambition

Author:
Simon V. Mayall
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States and Turkey

18781. NATO and Humanitarian Action in the Kosovo Crisis

Author:
Marc Sommers, Larry Minear, and Ted van Baarda
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The world's response to the Kosovo crisis dramatizes the increased role of international military forces in humanitarian action. Some people view this development positively as the harnessing of the military for humanitarian tasks; others are alarmed at the perceived militarization of humanitarian action. A workshop convened by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry in The Hague on November 15-16, 1999, assessed these different perspectives on the Kosovo experience in the light of research it had commissioned.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Kosovo and Netherlands

18782. Human Development: The World After Copehagen

Author:
Richard Jolly
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United Nations

18783. Humanitarian Action and Politics: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
S. Neil MacFarlane and Larry Minear
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
This study reviews the intersection between politics and humanitarian action in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Approaching humanitarian action as including both assistance and protection, as well as emergency aid and reconstruction inputs, the study analyzes the intrusion of political agendas into humanitarian responses to the conflict and assesses the damages of the resulting politicization of activities.

18785. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Greg Gause
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Steve: My impression is that your group has identified the variables that might affect the way the peace process goes. In fact, you probably have too many to factor into any one scenario. One way to proceed might be to divide the variables into First Order and Second Order variables: First Order variables would be those in which a change would have direct and immediate consequences on the peace process; Second Order would be those in which change would have an indirect and/or longer-term effect. You rightly have problematized the question of just what direction your vectors might take. This distinction would add intensity as a second element of the vector.
Political Geography:
Middle East

18786. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Rick Hermann
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
My first cut at the hierarchy of driving forces ranks Israeli-Palestinian bilateral factors as the most important and regional and global factors as secondary. Competition between global powers (USA, Russia, China) is currently not intense. None of them see the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian conflict as instrumentally critical to their broader strategic competition with each other. None see their security as centrally tied to this conflict, and, consequently, while interested not even the United States will commit enough resources at this point to overturn the forces driving the bilateral bargain. Competition among regional states is substantial, but the conflicts that do not involve Israel do not involve states powerful enough to project their competition into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, Iranian v. Turkish, or Iranian v. Saudi Arabian, or Syrian v. Iraq, or India v. Pakistan might tangentially connect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mostly in the realm of rhetoric and symbol manipulation. None of these states, however, are strong enough to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental regional manifestation of their broader strategic conflict. The primary determinants of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process in the short-term are the conflicting ambitions and calculations made by Israelis and Palestinians. Forces at the global and regional level will affect these bargaining calculations, (affecting both relative coercive leverage and positive reassurance) but they will not impose additional sources of conflict. My examination of global and regional forces, will follow my construction of the primary bilateral dynamic. I do not think global and regional factors will upset the short-term prediction I will make for the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli relationship. They may play a big role in shaping longer-term predictions.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

18787. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Bruce Jentleson
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
There are two issues I want to raise regarding our basic approach of focusing on driving forces to trace scenarios and predict outcomes. First is the question of the time frame of the outcomes to which we are driving. I ask this with particular reference to the "violent collapse" outcome. There are numerous permutations here that we need to differentiate. I'm not adept enough to graph it on the computer, but here are the permutations: Two versions of violent collapse: violent collapse as some sort of end state for whatever our timeframe is, or violent collapse as an intermediate outcome which then comes back together and leads to "two state" or "autonomy"; If violent collapse as an intermediate stage, then what conditions make an ensuing path to Palestinian state more likely, and what conditions for autonomy? Or what 's the story line for getting to either of these without going through violent collapse? And what are the parameters and criteria for what we mean by "violent" (Singer and Small had their figures for how many deaths equal a war; how many equal "violent") and by "collapse", as distinct from pause or suspension of talks?
Political Geography:
Middle East

18788. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
David E. Spiro
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Several interesting observations came out of our first conference. We realized that the mainstream academic view on the Middle East peace process has changed dramatically—from a belief that there would never be a peace to confidence that the peace process would not be derailed. In trying to make predictions that are not driven by newspaper headlines, we used a fairly uncontroversial laundry list of systemic variables, but we could not agree on which way they would effect the outcome. My aim in this memorandum is to review my past views on the Middle East peace process as an exercise in exploring what changed—both in the Middle East, and in my own implicit assumptions. I will amend my conclusions about the past by examining what has happened since the Oslo Accords. Finally, I will suggest, by way of conclusion, what driving forces will affect the future.
Political Geography:
Middle East

18789. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Janice Stein
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

18790. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Don Sylvan
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Middle East

18791. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Steven Weber
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The election of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel threw into flux the Middle East peace process. What in early 1996 seemed to many observers the almost inevitable "working out" of a decades-long conflict that had gradually become unsustainable on all sides, was by late 1996 seen more clearly as part of a contingent unfolding set of events which could drive the region in more than one direction, including backwards toward explicit conflict and even war. This presents unique theoretical, analytic, and policy opportunities.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East

18792. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America

18793. The Dark Side of Social Capital

Author:
Martin Gargiulo and Mario Benassi
Publication Date:
09-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

18794. Health Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:
Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:
A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

18795. As Mexico Imploded: Action and Inaction in the United States

Author:
Sidney Weintraub
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Mexico

18796. Trading Places: The Caribbean Faces Europe and the Americas in the Twenty-first Century

Author:
Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, and Caribbean

18797. Possibilities and Realities of Cuba's Integration into the Caribbean: Perceptions of Cuban Entrepreneurs

Author:
Gerardo Gonzalez
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Cuba and Caribbean

18798. Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Evaluation

Author:
Glenn W. Harrison and Thomas F. Rutherfod
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

18799. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

Author:
Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy

18800. Private Investment as a Financing Source for Microcredit

Author:
Carter Garber
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance