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18701. Policy Space and voting Coalitions in Congress: the Bearing of Policy on Politics, 1930-1954

Author:
Ira Katznelson, John Lapinski, and Rose Razaghian
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
The question of how the substance of politics helps shape legislative coalitions and bases of support has been displaced from the center of studies of Congress since the publication of pioneering work in the 1960s and early 1970s. Seeking to revive this research program, we apply an original coding scheme in tandem with a factor analytic analysis of voting and policy space to the period spanning the last years of the Hoover presidency to the start of Eisenhower's. Investigating legislator parameters—the dimensions of voting space—and roll call parameters—the dimensions of policy space—the paper confirms the strong independent impact of the substance of policy on the political decisions of legislators and reveals an issue-specific concatenation of party and region that altered over the course of the period.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

18702. Self-Control for the Righteous: toward a Theory of Luxury Pre-Commitment

Author:
Ran Kivetz and Itamar Simonson
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Prior research has examined consumers' use of self-control to avoid hedonic (myopic) temptations, such as overbuying and smoking. We propose that consumers often exercise the opposite form of self-control, whereby they attempt to avoid default forms of spending on necessities and savings in favor of luxury, hedonic purchases. In particular, given the difficulty of choosing hedonic luxury items over necessities and cash in everyday (local) decisions, under certain conditions, consumers pre-commit to hedonic luxury consumption. Such pre-commitments to hedonic luxuries are more likely to occur when their psychological cost is less concrete. These propositions were tested in a series of studies involving real and hypothetical choices as well as process measures. The results indicate that a substantial segment of consumers choose hedonic luxury prizes over cash of equal or greater value; most of these consumers explain such choices as motivated by the need to pre-commit in order to guarantee a hedonic luxury experience and that the award does not end up in the pool of money used for necessities. In addition, consistent with our analysis, the likelihood of pre-committing to hedonic luxuries is enhanced when (a) the consequences of the decision will be realized farther in the future, (b) the odds of winning the reward are lower, and (c) consumers anticipate how they will use each possible award. We also show that hedonic luxury awards are more effective than cash as incentives for participation in a (real) lottery. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

18703. Agricultural Biotechnology's Complementary Intellectual Assets

Author:
Gregory D. Graff, Gordon C. Rausser, and Arthur A. Small
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
We formulate and test a hypothesis for the dramatic restructuring that the plant breeding and seed industry has recently undergone: the reorganization can be explained in part by the desire to exploit complementarities between intellectual assets needed to create genetically modified organisms. This hypothesis is tested using data on agricultural biotechnology patents, notices for field tests of genetically modified organisms, and firm characteristics. The presence of complementarities is identified with a positive covariance in the unexplained variation of asset holdings. Results indicate that coordination of complementary assets have increased under the consolidation of the industry.
Topic:
Agriculture, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology

18704. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace

Author:
Benjamin Miller
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America

18705. International And Transatlantic Images Of Belonging: The United States And Europe In The 21st Century

Author:
John A. Hall
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
This topic was suggested to me by a fellow academic. Otherdirectedness has normally appealed to me in intellectual affairs, for it has encouraged thought on subjects otherwise not on my agenda. But I am uncomfortable on this occasion. Explaining why I feel as if I have been offered what chess players' refer to as a poisoned pawn allows immediate highlighting of the argument to be made.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

18706. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, will remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000- testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. According to the US Committee for Refugees, roughly 35 million people are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. There are twenty-four ongoing humanitarian emergencies and new or renewed emergencies could appear in the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and/or Central America. Humanitarian conditions throughout the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, Iraq, and North Korea will continue to have a particularly significant impact upon regional stability, as well as on the strategic interests of major outside powers. Conditions are likely to worsen in Angola, Colombia, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Republic of Serbia within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), excluding the province of Kosovo. The current drought in the Horn of Africa may induce a famine as severe as that of the mid-1980s. The humanitarian situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC) and Sierra Leone are unlikely to improve significantly even if pending peace accords hold, and could worsen considerably if such accords were to fail. In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or technological or natural disasters- leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies: Resumed hostilities between India and Pakistan that expanded beyond the borders of Kashmir, as they did in previous conflicts, would displace a million or more people on both sides of the border. The countries of Central America and the Caribbean that were battered by hurricanes in 1998- especially Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Haiti-remain vulnerable to weather-induced disasters. Internal ethnic conflict would create substantial humanitarian needs in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The possibility of additional sudden economic emergencies also cannot be discounted. In Russia, drought threatens the grain harvest, and unless the outlook improves, Moscow will again need large-scale food assistance. Despite Nigeria's turn toward democracy, escalating conflict in the oil-rich Niger River Delta region could lead to widespread refugee flows into neighboring countries. The possible effects of widespread Y2K-related difficulties could aggravate current humanitarian emergencies or lead to new emergencies. The overall demand for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 may exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Overall funding for ongoing emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo. Nevertheless, the focus on the Balkans could detract attention and resources from other regions with extensive humanitarian needs. Absent major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward, increasing the shortfall. Government funding is likely to decline fastest for long-lasting conflicts where attempts at political resolution continue to fail.
Topic:
Genocide, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Balkans, and Central America

18707. Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East

Author:
Paul Jabber
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The purpose of this analysis is to assess the likely impact that the US campaign against global terrorism launched in the wake of the attacks of September 11th, 2001, will have on key American interests in the Middle East over the medium term (next 12 months). The main focus will be on the expected perceptions and reaction to US policy of selected important Middle East actors, regime stability and changing regional alignments.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

18708. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The ballistic missile remains a central element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this status over the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources in efforts to develop or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures necessary to sustain future development and production; and actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for domestic shortfalls, gain increased expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

18709. The Global War on Terrorism

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
On September 11, terrorists attacked freedom. The world has responded with an unprecedented coalition against international terrorism. In the first 100 days of the war, President George W. Bush increased America's homeland security and built a worldwide coalition that: Began to destroy al-Qaeda's grip on Afghanistan by driving the Taliban from power. Disrupted al-Qaeda's global operations and terrorist financing networks. Destroyed al-Qaeda terrorist training camps. Helped the innocent people of Afghanistan recover from the Taliban's reign of terror. Helped Afghans put aside long-standing differences to form a new interim government that represents all Afghans – including women.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States

18710. Workshop on Information Technology in Africa

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The last 20 years have been characterized by rapid improvements in information technology and have com e to be regarded as the “Information Revolution.” The Information Revolution is changing the speed at which information is communicated, the facility with which calculations can be conducted in real time, and the costs and speed of observation of physical phenomena. Applications of IT in transportation mean that people and goods can be moved m o re efficiently; applications to the production process mean that goods and services can be produced m o re efficiently.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

18711. An Empirical Comparison of Bundesbank and ECB Monetary Policy Rules

Author:
John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, and Jon Faust
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We estimate a monetary policy reaction function for the Bundesbank and use it as a benchmark to assess the monetary policy of the ECB since the launch of the euro in January 1999. We find that euro interest rates are low relative to this benchmark. We consider several possible reasons for this, including the divergence between core and headline inflation, inflation having turned out to be higher than could have been foreseen by the ECB and the possibility that the ECB is focussing only on macroeconomic conditions in a subset of member countries. We argue that these potential explanations cannot account for the difference between recent interest rates and our estimated Bundesbank benchmark. Our results suggest that the reaction function of the ECB features a high weight on the output gap relative to the weight on inflation, compared to the Bundesbank.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

18712. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The capacity and willingness of the international community to respond to humanitarian emergencies will continue to be stretched through December 2002. The overall number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance—now approximately 42 million—is likely to increase: Five ongoing emergencies—in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, North Korea and Sudan—cause almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian assistance as internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, or others in need in their home locations. All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) or Indonesia. The total number of humanitarian emergencies—20—is down from 25 in January 2000. Of the current emergencies: Eleven are in countries experiencing internal conflict—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DROC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Two—in Iraq and North Korea—are due largely to severe government repression. The remaining six—in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yugoslavia—are humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The primary cause of the emergency in Tajikistan is drought. Several other countries currently experiencing humanitarian emergencies—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, North Korea, Somalia, and Sudan—also are affected by major, persistent natural disasters.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia

18713. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author:
Jane Ihrig and Joseph E. Gagon
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation appears to have declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in the rate of pass-through to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on twenty industrial countries between 1971 and 2003. We find widespread evidence of a robust and statistically significant link between estimated rates of pass-through and inflation variability. We also find evidence that observed monetary policy behavior may be a factor in the declining rate of pass-through.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

18714. Battling International Bribery 2001

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The battle against international bribery and other forms of public corruption remains a high priority for the United States. As President George W. Bush stated in his May 2001 message to the Second Global Forum on Fighting Corruption, “The corruption of governmental institutions threatens our common interests in promoting political and economic stability, upholding core democratic values, ending the reign of dictators, and creating a level playing field for lawful business activities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

18715. Report on Biological Warfare Defense: Vaccine Research Development Programs

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Section 218 of the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2001, Public Law (PL) 106-398 (at Appendix A) requires the submission of a report to the congressional defense committees on the acquisition of biological defense vaccines for the Department of Defense (DoD). As required by section 218, PL 106-398, this report addresses: 1) the implications of relying on the commercial sector to meet the DoD's biological defense vaccine requirements; 2) a design for a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) vaccine production facility; 3) preliminary cost estimates and schedule for the facility; 4) consultation with the Surgeon General on the utility of such a facility for the production of vaccines for the civilian sector and the impact of civilian production on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs; and 5) the impact of international vaccine requirements and the production of vaccines to meet those requirements on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18716. Russia in the International System

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Russia's Foreign Policy Russian foreign policy in the coming years will be characterized by weakness; frustration--primarily with the United States as the world's preeminent power--over Russia's diminished status; generally cautious international behavior; and a drive to resubjugate, though not reintegrate, the other former Soviet states. The international situation affords Russia time to concentrate on domestic reforms because, for the first time in its history, it does not face significant external threats. But rather than use the breathing space for domestic reforms, Putin is as much--if not more--focused on restoring Russia's self-defined rightful role abroad and seeking to mold the CIS into a counterweight to NATO and the European Union. The Outside World's Views of Russia Russia does not have any genuine allies. Some countries are interested in good relations with Russia, but only as a means to another end. For example, China sees Russia as a counterweight to the United States but values more highly its ties with the United States. Some countries see Russia as a vital arms supplier but resent Russia also selling arms to their rivals (China-India, Iran-Iraq). Pro-Russia business lobbies exist in Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Israel (one-fifth of whose population now consists of Soviet émigres), but they do not single-handedly determine national policies. Europe is the only region that would like to integrate Russia into a security system, but it is divided over national priorities and institutional arrangements as well as put off by some Russian behavior. Most CIS governments do not trust their colossal neighbor, which continues to show an unsettling readiness to intervene in their internal affairs, though they know Russia well and are to a considerable degree comfortable in dealing with it. Turkey has developed an improved dialogue and an unprecedented number of economic ties with Russia during the post-Cold War period, but this more positive pattern of relations has not fully taken root, and Ankara remains suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow's role in the Middle East has been reduced, but Israel, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq all favor good relations with Russia. Mutual interests also override disagreements in Russian-Iranian relations, but Tehran is wary of Russian behavior, particularly toward Saddam Hussein. India still trusts Russia--a sentiment that is perhaps a residue of the genuine friendship of Cold War days--but clearly not in the same way it once did, and New Delhi fears that weakness will propel Russia into doing things that could drive India further away. In East Asia, the most substantial breakthrough has been the resurrected relationship between Russia and China, one that entails significant longer-term risk for Russia. Other countries in the region value their links with Moscow as a means to balance a more powerful China, or as a useful component of their larger political and economic strategies, but Russia's role in East Asia--as elsewhere--remains constrained by the decline in its political, military, and economic power over the last decade. Russia's Weakness Russia's weakness stems from long-term secular trends and from its domestic structure. In essence, the old nomenklatura and a few newcomers have transformed power into property on the basis of personal networks and created an equilibrium resting on insider dealings. These insiders may jockey for position but have a vested interest in preserving the system. The public does not like the system but is resigned to it and gives priority to the preservation of order. As for the economy, it is divided into a profitable, internationally integrated sector run by oligarchs and a much larger, insulated, low-productivity, old-style paternalistic sector that locks Russia into low growth. No solace will be forthcoming from the international business and energy worlds. They do not expect the poor commercial climate to improve greatly and will not increase investments much beyond current levels until it does. Militarily, Russia will also remain weak. Its nuclear arsenal is of little utility, and Moscow has neither the will nor the means to reform and strengthen its conventional forces. Hope for the Future? The best hope for change in Russia lies with the younger generation. Several participants reported that under-25 Russians have much more in common with their US counterparts, including use of the Internet, than with older Soviet generations. But there was some question over whether the new generation would change the system or adapt to it. Others placed some hope in international institutions, for instance the World Trade Organization, eventually forcing Russia to adapt to the modern world. Dissenting Views Some participants dissented from the overall forecast of depressing continuity. The keynote speaker, James Billington, stated that Russia would not be forever weak and that the current confusion would end in a few years either through the adoption of authoritarian nationalism or federated democracy. One scholar felt the Chechen war was feeding ethnic discord in other areas of the Federation to which Moscow would respond with increased authoritarianism, not necessarily successfully. Finally, a historian observed that the patience of Russians is legendary but not infinite, meaning that we should not be overly deterministic.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Middle East, and Israel

18717. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on High Energy Laser Weapon Systems Applications

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Several decades of science and technology, concept development, and engineering development have provided the underpinnings for a significant contribution by high-energy lasers (HELs) to national security needs. The potential for speed-of-light response with a wide variety of effects to support a variety of missions suggests a new level of flexibility and adaptability-attributes that are particularly valuable in the complex national security environment currently existing and unfolding. As in the case of most important new technologies, we are just beginning to understand and exploit the potential of high-energy lasers. It is nonetheless important to realize the extent of this potential. Directed-energy weapons can add a new dimension to a wide range of missions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology

18718. Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship

Author:
Chang-Jin Kim, Jeremy Piger, and Richard Startz
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have contributed to these recessions. We also allow for the timing of switches from boom to recession for the permanent component to be correlated with switches from boom to recession in the transitory component. The parameter estimates suggest a specific pattern of recessions: switches in the permanent component lead switches in the transitory component both when entering and leaving recessions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

18719. Second Annual Report

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam

18720. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Future DoD Airborne High-Frequency Radar Needs/Resources

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Defense Science Board Task Force was formed to address questions related to the development of X-band, active, electronically steered arrays (AESAs) for airborne platforms. Areas focused on were advanced radar capabilities for ground targets and air targets.The airborne radar inventory can be divided into three broad categories:(1) Air target surveillance and cueing radars mounted in rotodomes (e.g., AWACS,-2C).(2) Nose- mounted fighter radars for air and ground targets (e.g., F-15, F-16, F-22, JSF).(3) Side-looking radars for ground reconnaissance, surveillance, and cueing (e.g., U-2, JSTARS, Global Hawk). Categories (2) and (3) are dominated by X-band radars; the insertion of AESA technology into category (3) was the primary subject for this task force.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18721. The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick-Prescott filter over the most recent period when such estimates are generally considered to be unreliable. The second estimates equilibrium levels of the cyclical indicators and uses an Okun's Law-type relationship to derive output gaps and potential output. The second method is also applied to the components of potential output to derive a third estimate. These methods suggest that the current Japanese output gap is considerably larger than a simple Hodrick-Prescott filter would suggest.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

18722. Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered

Author:
Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Tesar and Werner (1995) finding of very high turnover rates on foreign equity portfolios is based on an underestimation of cross-border equity positions. Foreign turnover rates calculated using information from comprehensive benchmark surveys on cross-border holdings are much lower than previously reported and comparable to domestic turnover rates. However, the basic intuition from the Tesar-Werner study, that transaction costs do not help explain the observed home bias, is confirmed using data on transaction costs in 41 markets.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

18723. A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson, Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

18724. Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries

Author:
John H. Rogers and Hayden P. Smith
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using consumer price indexes from cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, we estimate the "border effect" on U.S.-Mexican relative prices and find that it is nearly an order of magnitude larger than for U.S.-Canadian prices. However, during a very stable sub-period in Mexico (May 1988 to November 1994), the "width" of the U.S.-Mexican border falls dramatically and becomes approximately equal to the U.S.-Canadian border. We then show that when consideration is limited to cities lying geographically very close to the U.S.-Mexican border--San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez, and Matamoros--the border width falls compared to that estimated with the full sample of U.S. and Mexican cities, but falls only very slightly. We also present evidence that the border effect in U.S.-Mexican prices is not primarily due to the border effect in U.S.-Mexican wages. Finally, using the prices of 276 highly dis-aggregated goods and services, we estimate the variability of relative prices of different items within Mexican cities. This measure of relative price variability declines during the stable peso sub-period, but by less than the decline in nominal and real (i.e., CPI-based) exchange rate variability. Our results are strong evidence of a "nominal border effect" in relative prices within NAFTA, but also indicate that real side influences are important.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

18725. Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe

Author:
John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

18726. Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the United States

Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
During the next 15 years, globalization, demographic imbalances between OECD and developing countries, and interstate and civil conflicts will fuel increasing international migration, much of it illegal. Migration will have positive and negative consequences for sending and receiving countries alike. Other countries' responses to migration issues will affect migration pressures on the United States and a broad range of US economic and security interests.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States

18727. Protecting the Homeland: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defensive Information Operations 2000 Summer Study Volume II

Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In its 1996 report, the Defense Science Board (DSB) recommended that the Pentagon invest an additional $3 billion to strengthen defenses of its information networks. This report was viewed by some as unrealistic and prophetic by others, but in all cases it faced a readership with a very uneven appreciation of the effects of disruptive technology and dicontinuous change. The defense establishment has increased its intellectual capital on the subject of Defensive Information Systems (DIO) considerably since 1996. However, it has yet to fully accomodate the realities of an information intensive future in its architecture, processes, and investments. Technology has continued to evolve and the problems have become much more difficult and complex. DoD must now accomplish more than anyone could have imagined in 1996. Perhaps more important is the dawning realization that incremental modifications to our existing institutions and processes will not produce the adaptation we need.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18728. Report on Allied Contributions to the Common Defense 2001

Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The United States and its allies face a diverse set of challenges to collective security. These include regional or state-centered threats (such as regional aggressors); transnational threats (including terrorism, international crime, drug trafficking, and illicit arms trafficking); the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery; and the spread of dangerous technologies (including non-safeguarded, dual-use technologies). Additional challenges include threats to the environment and public health (e.g., new infectious diseases), and from foreign intelligence collection, failed states, and other states that tolerate or actively engage in human rights abuses, ethnic cleansing, or acts of genocide that can endanger regional stability by sparking civil wars and refugee crises.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Australia/Pacific

18729. Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

18730. Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies

Author:
Jinill Kim, Andrew Levin, and Sunghyun Henry Kim
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. In particular, we obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this cost is dramatically larger if agents are relatively impatient and shocks are highly persistent. For realistic cases in which agents are very patient and shocks are highly persistent (that is, the discount factor and the first-order autocorrelation are both near unity), the welfare cost of incomplete markets is highly sensitive to the specific values of these parameters. Finally, using a non-linear solution algorithm, we confirm that a two-country production economy with endogenous labor supply has qualitatively similar welfare properties.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

18731. North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook, and Implications

Author:
Mitchell B. Reiss
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) held a conference on 23 February 2001 in cooperation with the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress on "North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook and Implications." The conference featured discussion of seven commissioned papers that are published in this report. Sixty government and nongovernment specialists participated in the conference. Following is a brief summary of the views of the specialists.
Topic:
International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea

18732. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Options for Acquisition of the Advanced Targeting Pod and Advanced Targeting FLIR Pod

Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Under Secretary of Defense (AT) requested that the DSB form a brief study of ongoing Navy and Air Force programs aimed at developing advanced laser guided weapon targeting pods for their tactical aircraft. This request for a DSB Task Force was occasioned by Congressional interest in the possibilities of a Joint development and production program for these pods.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18733. Protecting the Homeland: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defensive Information Operations 2000 Summer Study Volume I

Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The task forces see a spectrum of threats to the homeland emerging. The 2000 summer study begins a series of studies byt he Defense Science Board aimed at assisting the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community in defining their roles in protecting the nation from unconventional attacks on the United States. Other studies now planned as part of this series of studies include Defense Against Chemical Warfare Attack: Countering the Strategic Nuclear Threat in the 21st century; a follow-up study on Intelligence on Threats to the Homeland; and a second study on the issues associated with Defense Against Biological Warfare Attack. The focus of all these DSB studies is on identifying the technology and operational capability needed to protect the homeland. It is not on the assignment of roles and missions for employing said capabilities. Significant recommendations are made in these reports including suggestions for implementation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18734. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms

Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics), recognizing the crucial importance of weapons platform fuel usage to U.S. military capability, requested that the Defense Science Board form a task force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms. Asked to consider existing or emerging technologies that could significantly improve platform efficiency, the task force also examined institutional barriers that exist and must be overcome to understand and capture the full advantages of more efficient military systems.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18735. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Training Superiority Training Surprise

Author:
Ralph Chatham and Joe Braddock
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In late 1998 the Undersecretary of Defense (Personnel Readiness), the Director, Defense Research and Engineering, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff requested the Defense Science Board to create a task force on training and education. Drs. Joe Braddock and Ralph Chatham were appointed co-chairmen. The task force met periodically throughout 1999 and early 2000. This document is the report of our deliberations.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18736. The Third Yugoslavia, 1992 - 2001

Author:
Sabrina P. Ramet
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Milosevic regime was a classic example of what has been called a “democradura,” i.e., a system which combined some of the mechanisms of democracy (with the result that Milosevic's Socialists were, at one point, forced to enter into a coalition with Seselj's Radicals, in order to form a government) with many overtly authoritarian features (among which one might mention the constriction of press freedom, the use of the police against the political opposition, and systematic violations of human rights). It was also a regime which drew its energy from the manipulation of Serbian nationalism, even if, as has been argued, Milosevic himself was not an ideological nationalist. To the extent that xenophobia lay at the heart of Serbian nationalism, the regime found itself relying on an ideology which consisted of an explicit repudiation of such values as tolerance, equality of peoples, respect for the harm principle, and individual rights.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Yugoslavia

18737. The Poles and Their Past: Society, Historiography and the Legislation Process

Author:
Andrzej Paczkowski
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Polish nation had experienced both Nazism and communism. These were not equal experiences, and social memory about them differs to a considerable degree. In order to perform such an operation, it would be necessary to halt history in June 1941. Since it is impossible to stop history in order to examine the period from mid-September 1939 to June 1941, it is helpful to study Polish recollections of their experiences so as to understand their continued impact on national history and memory.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

18738. Violence Against Women in Post-communist Societies: Benefits and Changes

Author:
Vesna Nikolic-Ristanovic
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Social changes, which recently occurred in post-communist countries, brought new opportunities for positive developments and offered the possibility of choice. In most countries, the social transition brought an opening of borders, enabling an influx of positive as well as negative influences. However, even the general positive impact of social changes is typically followed by more negative consequences in the everyday life of the people. The most dramatic consequences of social transition, manifested in a significant rise of unemployment and the loss of many social benefits. These developments are directly related to the replacement of planned, centralized economies by the market and the privatization of state property. Most people lost their previous social security benefits and, despite the fact that the general character of communism was “equality in poverty,” the social transition was a source of serious stress and numerous existential problems. This was further intensified by the fact that, at the same time, the growing import of both material goods and the American way of thinking, i.e. consumerism spirit of the West, urged people to achieve their “American dreams” at any cost.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Privatization
Political Geography:
America and Europe

18739. Decentralization and Regionalization after Communism: Lessons from Administrative and Territorial Reform in Poland and the Czech Republic

Author:
Jennifer Yoder
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
While the regional level of authority has gained much attention in recent years in Western Europe, Eastern Europe is still emerging from decades of centralization and homogenization under communism. Several post-communist countries, however, have taken steps toward administrative decentralization and territorial regionalization. This article explores possible reasons for taking these steps and traces the progress of administrative and territorial reform in two post-communist cases: Poland and the Czech Republic. The conclusion considers several implications of these reforms for domestic politics and foreign relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

18740. The Limits of Conditionality: Nuclear Reactor Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, 1991 - 2001

Author:
John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Conditionality has become an increasingly prominent feature of international politics in recent years.1 Once mainly associated with the macroeconomic stabilization programs of the IMF, since the collapse of communism it has been used by the EU, NATO, the OECD, and the Council of Europe to promote a variety of political, economic, and social objectives – everything from abolishing the death penalty to privatizing national monopolies. With increased use has come increased controversy. Critics of conditionality argue that it is often applied in ways that ride roughshod over national sovereignty, ignore local circumstances, and impose economic hardship. Others note the frequent inability of recipients of conditional aid to fulfill commitments to international donors. Even when measured by its own narrow objectives, they argue, conditionality often fails.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

18741. MAP Reading: NATO's and Russia's Pathways to European Military Integration

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As part of NATO's and Europe's continuing and open-ended processes of enlargement and military-political integration, in 1999, NATO presented aspiring members with a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to guide them in their activities preparing their governments and armed forces for membership in NATO. The MAP, if fulfilled according to NATO's requirements and approbation, allegedly would make the aspiring members' military forces more nearly congruent or interoperable with NATO forces. With this document, NATO has arguably created its own version of the EU's acquis communautaire “against which the Alliance can assess the technical preparations and capacities of the nine MAP partners and judge their readiness for membership.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

18742. Commentaries: The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, And Response

Author:
Ellen Laipson, Michael A. Ledeen, Michael J. White, John Gannon, Eugene J. Carroll, Richard P. Cincotta, Johanna Mendelson Forman, Michael Hanssler, Liliana Hisas, Leslie Johnston, Gavin Kitchingham, Gayl D. Ness, David Rejeski, Ervin J. Rokke, Judith Shapiro, Aleksei V. Yablokov, and Arno Weinmann
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
In January 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), a center within the Central Intelligence Agency that provides the agency's director with mid- and long-term strategic thinking and direction, published Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. This unclassified and public report, which expanded on the NIC's previous effort Global Trends 2010, takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

18743. Environmental Stress and Human Security in Northern Pakistan

Author:
Richard A. Matthew
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Environmental and social factors are generating high levels of conflict and insecurity in Northern Pakistan. Several factors make this case an important subject for analysis and discussion: (a) the strategic location of the region; (b) the potential for far-reaching and even global consequences should conflict spill across the borders and into countries such as Afghanistan and India; and (c) the similarities between this case and many others in the world. The article concludes with policy suggestions for both domestic and foreign parties concerned about the situation.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India

18744. Conflict: A Cause and Effect of Hunger

Author:
Marc J. Cohen, Ellen Messer, and Thomas Marchione
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Ensuring food security—especially in Africa—depends on breaking cycles of hunger and conflict. Whether one believes that (a) environmental scarcities (including food insecurity) can cause conflict, or (b) that conflict is primarily caused by political factors, it is indisputable that access to food is always disrupted by conflict. Much has been written about the linkages between environmental scarcities, hunger, and conflict. This article (a) highlights certain gaps in the information about the steps that lead from hunger to conflict, and then (b) suggests policies and actions to break these connections.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

18745. Dilemmas For Conservation In The Brazilian Amazon

Author:
Margaret E. Keck
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
More than a decade after images of flames devouring the rainforest focused international attention on the Brazilian Amazon, the fires continue to burn. This article traces the history of conservation efforts in the Brazilian Amazon and then argues that repeated failure to understand or accommodate the political factors at work in the Amazon undermines environmentalists' efforts to protect the rainforest.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Brazil

18746. Brazil's SIVAM: As It Monitors The Amazon, Will It Fulfill Its Human Security Promise?

Author:
Thomaz Guedes da Costa
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As Brazil implements its System for Vigilance of the Amazon (SIVAM), the country's leadership continues to tout the system as a major effort towards achieving its national security objectives—especially (a) preserving the countr y's sovereignty over its territories in that tropical forest region; (b) assisting in Amazon law enforcement, particularly in deterring illegal flights associated with contraband and narco-trafficking; and (c) providing environmental information aimed at promoting sustainable development and the preservation of natural habitats in the Amazon. But while official arguments promise SIVAM will contribute to all three objectives, the lack of: (a) transparency in the program's development and implementation; and (b) greater participation by non-official organizations in how SIVAM will gather, process, and disseminate information threatens the environmental and human security value of the system.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Brazil

18747. A Country-Driven Approach to the Phaseout of Ozone-Depleting Substances in Developing Countries

Author:
Rasmus Rasmusson, Christo Artusio, Olga Gassan-zade, Etienne Gonin, and Joel Ngugi
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Montreal Protocol–the 1987 international agreement that aims to phase out the production and consumption of substances that deplete the earth's ozone layer–faces significant new challenges, particularly in the developing world. The Protocol's Multilateral Fund, which helps to finance phaseout in developing countries, has succeeded in considerably reducing the consumption of chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) in the manufacturing sector. It now faces the urgent task of reducing the consumption of ODSs in a countless number of widely dispersed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). (Many other environmental conventions face a similar challenge.) In particular, there is a need to phase out CFCs used in refrigeration and methyl bromide used in agriculture. To meet these new challenges, the Montreal Protocol and the Multilateral Fund must employ a new strategy–one that puts the developing countries squarely in the driver's seat.
Topic:
Environment, International Cooperation, and Third World

18748. Linkage and Legalism in Institutions: Evidence From Agricultural Trade Negotiations

Author:
Christina Davis
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In a comparative study of Japanese and European trade policy, this paper explains how the institutional context of negotiations affects political outcomes. I examine two pathways by which negotiation structure promotes liberalization: issue linkage and legal framing. Broadening stakes through issue linkage mobilizes domestic lobbying for liberalization. Use of GATT/WTO trade law in dispute settlement legitimizes arguments favoring liberalization. This study on international institutions addresses the theoretical debates in the field regarding how interdependence and the legalization of international affairs change the nature of state interaction.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, and Israel

18749. Facilitating Private - Public Partnerships for Drinking Water

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The WaterLife Foundation is a New York-based charity designed to engage the corporate sector in small-scale/big impact sustainable drinking water partnerships in the developing world. WaterLife will work with local communities to install new wells, repository systems, sanitation systems, and a variety of other solutions, depending on the local need. WaterLife hosted "Facilitating Private - Public Partnerships for Drinking Water" in New York City on November 2, 2001. The meeting was sponsored by ExxonMobil and Columbia University, and the meeting logistics were organized by The Conference Board. The WaterLife Foundation hosted this innovative meeting with three goals in mind: Raise the corporate sector's awareness of the global drinking water problem Discuss the opportunities for partnerships between the corporate and non-profit sector Give the corporate sector the opportunity to design mutually beneficial partnerships with the WaterLife Foundation, in the area of sustainable drinking water initiatives. The emphasis of the November 2 meeting, and of the WaterLife Foundation, is on field work. WaterLife is not a research or policy organization, and this meeting resulted in concrete steps for ensuring corporate sector involvement in the active implementation of sustainable drinking water projects in the developing world.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Water
Political Geography:
New York

18750. Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China

Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held its annual Pacific symposium on “Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China” at the National Defense University in Washington on March 7 and 8, 2000. This event brought together representatives of the policy community and academe from Australia, the People's Republic of China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the United States. It focused on how perceptions of China influence defense and foreign policies in key nations of the Asia- Pacific region, how the likely course of developments in China might affect the future policies of countries in the region, and how such changes might impact on their security relations with the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand