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18502. Reducing Urban and Industrial Pollution in India
- Author:
- Donald G. McClelland and Mark Hodges
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- An emerging industrial power, India faces major pollution problems. USAID has undertaken to help abate the release of emissions and effluents into the air and water using American technologies—thus helping U.S. firms as well. Significant success has been observed, but lack of solid baseline data obscures the actual extent of USAID's role.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- America, South Asia, India, and Asia
18503. Urban and Industrial Pollution Programs: Russia Case Study
- Author:
- Matthew Addison, Mark Hodges, Steven Gale, and Nick Wedeman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- Since the official dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has moved forward to make the difficult transition to open markets and more democratic institutions. The journey toward a complete restructuring of the Russian economy and an adoption of wide-ranging political reforms has been perilous. Political instability continues, crime and corruption have become more widespread, and economic conditions show little sign of improving quickly. Efforts to privatize state-held industries, initially seen as wildly successful, have now met with resistance, and full citizen involvement in government is far from complete.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
18504. Complex Emergencies And USAID's Humanitarian Response
- Author:
- Lynda DeWitt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- In 1998 some 32 million people needed humanitarian assistance because they were caught up in complex emergencies (armed conflicts or civil wars). That same year, the United States spent $898 million on humanitarian assistance. This amount represented 10.2 percent of official development assistance and was more than triple the amount spent on humanitarian assistance in 1990.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
18505. India: Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction During the 1990s
- Author:
- Catherine G. Corey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- The fiscal crisis that struck India in 1991, as the result of myriad internal and external factors, compelled the nation to adopt a series of economic reforms and liberalization policies. The genesis of the fiscal crisis lay partly in the highly protected domestic economy that maintained extensive subsidization, licensing and investment regulations, thus placing considerable burdens on the expenditures of the central government. Compounding this problem was a rapidly expanding current account deficit that had grown over time as import demand steadily increased and exports and foreign investment lagged. These conditions, in combination with external factors, generated a severe balance of payments crisis in which India came perilously close to defaulting on loans from international lenders. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and Financial Minister Manmohan Singh, the Indian government initiated a series of macroeconomic reforms. This included reductions in fiscal expenditure, privatization of state-run industries, promotion of foreign investment, and liberalization of international trade policy.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Asia
18506. Aftermath: Women and Women's Organizations In Postconflict Societies: The Role Of International Assistance
- Author:
- Krishna Kumar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- <p> Since the end of the Cold War, intrastate conflicts have increased worldwide. Poverty, the struggle for scarce resources, declining standards of living, ethnic rivalries and divisions, political repression by authoritarian governments, and rapid social and economic modernization—all these factors contribute to intrastate conflicts. <br /><br /> All intrastate conflicts share a set of common characteristics that have major implications for women and gender relations. First, the belligerent parties deliberately inflict violence on civilian populations. Second, the intrastate conflicts displace substantial numbers of people, mostly women and children. Third, women’s participation in war contributes to the redefinition of their identities and traditional roles. Fourth, there is usually a conscious attempt to destroy the supporting civilian infrastructure, leading to increased poverty and starvation. Finally, these conflicts leave among the belligerent groups within the countries a legacy of bitterness, hatred, and anger that is difficult to heal. </p><blockquote><p> </p> </blockquote><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p>
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, Politics, and War
18507. Aftermath: Women and Women's Organizations In Postconflict Societies
- Author:
- Krishna Kumar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, intrastate conflicts have increased worldwide. Poverty, the struggle for scarce resources, declining standards of living, ethnic rivalries and divisions, political repression by authoritarian governments, and rapid social and economic modernization—all these factors contribute to intrastate conflicts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, Politics, and War
18508. Linking Democracy and Development: An Idea for the Times
- Author:
- Hal Lippman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- IN THE POST–COLD WAR ERA, a variety of factors, some internal to USAID, some external, have prompted the emergence of linkages between democracy and governance (DG) programs and those of the Agency's other strategic goals. Downsizing, conducive host-country situations, shifts in thinking about development, and creative leaders and staff all have spurred the incorporation of democratic principles into Agency activities. In some missions, accountability, participation, responsiveness, and transparency are now an integral part of environmental, economic growth, health, and education activities. And missions have found they are achieving positive results and bolstered governance, creating synergy that promotes USAID's overall mission.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
18509. Aftermath: Women's Organizations In Postconflict El Salvador
- Author:
- Shelley Sperry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- WOMEN'S ORGANIZATIONS proliferated during and after the civil war that ravaged El Salvador from 1979 through 1991. By war's end, more than a hundred different women's organizations existed in El Salvador, each generating local and regional projects and frequently working in the national political arena as well. Unlike women's movements in other Latin American nations, the women's movement in El Salvador has grown stronger in the post conflict period of emerging democracy. The two movements—democracy and women's rights—appear to be mutually supportive. The case of El Salvador suggests that helping women's groups establish autonomy and stability during, rather than following, a conflict may be crucial to ensuring future women's activism and a vital democratic civil society.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Gender Issues, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador
18510. Aftermath: Internally Displaced Women and Women's Organizations in Postconflict Georgia
- Author:
- Pat McNees
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- ALL POST-SOVIET STATES underwent difficult political and economic transitions in the years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, but Georgia's was especially traumatic. Ethnic conflict broke out in Georgia virtually as soon as the Soviet Union collapsed. By 1992, Georgia's central authority had been diminished to near anarchy, the economy was in complete disarray, and the country had plunged into civil war that tore its fabric.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Education, Gender Issues, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Georgia
18511. Urban and Industrial Pollution Programs: Czech Republic Case Study
- Author:
- Matthew Addison, Steven Gale, Keith Forbes, and Michael Gould
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- In 1995 USAID Launched the Environmental Action Program Support Project. EAPS grew out of a 1993 international conference held in Lucerne, Switzerland, to develop a joint environmental action program. The project sought to decrease environmental degradation in six central and eastern European countries that were making the transition from centrally controlled economies and authoritarian governments to open markets and more democratic institutions. The Czech Republic was the first USAID-assisted country where EAPS was implemented.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Switzerland, and Czech Republic
18512. Defining U.S. National Security for the Next Generation
- Author:
- John C. Gannon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- In the post-Cold War world, the United States is challenged by a broader definition of U.S. national security that must take into account a wide range of factors that will contribute to stability or stimulate conflict in the years ahead. For these reasons, it makes sense today, more than ever, for a national security analyst to be engaged with USAID officers in a conference on global conflict prevention. We need to understand how such factors as demographics, natural resources, the environment, economic growth, globalization, and the quality of governance will challenge governments and the international community and, in some cases, sow the seeds of conflict threatening to U.S. interests.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
18513. Building Foundations for Cooperative Behavior Through U.S. Foreign Aid
- Author:
- Jr. Hawkins
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- Why do crime levels decrease in a government housing project located in one poor Indianapolis neighborhood but not in similar surrounding neighborhoods? Why do Nepalese farmers in selfgoverning systems consistently outperform their government-managed projects? Why have Turkish fishermen been able to govern inshore fisheries for two-hundred-plus years when theory and conventional wisdom would suggest they should fail?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
18514. Rethinking Development Assistance and the Role of AID in U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Jane Holl Lute
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- What should be the role of development assistance in U.S. foreign policy? In a time when major political, economic, and social transformation has altered so much of the international landscape, how are important U.S. interests served through the distribution of development aid? More fundamentally, what needs (that is, what needs of the United States) does a program of development assistance meet? What should be the goals of this program? What strategies should guide aid distribution to help best meet those goals?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
18515. International Constraints and Indigenous Strengths in Preventive Development
- Author:
- Jonathan Moore
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- I agree with Brady Anderson's guidance that “USAID's development policy and portfolio include integrated interventions aimed at addressing the effects of underlying social, economic and political problems.” My point of departure is that the only real prevention of conflict is root cause development, and that this cannot be separated from —but is closely connected to and part of—the crucial stage of post-conflict mitigation and rebuilding efforts. I will attempt to consider the implications for this proposition in three parts: the international “outside” perspective; the outlook from “inside” the crisis country; and where, broadly, combining these two points of view brings us.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
18516. How Do We Change the Way We Use Foreign Assistance to Help Prevent Deadly Conflicts?
- Author:
- Ted Morse
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- The topic of this paper is how do we change the way foreign assistance works in an increasingly unstable world: it has been interpreted to mean how do we change the way we use foreign assistance to help prevent deadly conflicts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
18517. Developing a More Effective Conflict Prevention Capacity in an Increasingly Unstable World
- Author:
- Randolph Pherson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- USAID wants to be proactive in developing a more robust capability to: Identify the root causes of deadly violent conflict and economic and political crises. Use analytic and programmatic tools at USAID's disposal to mitigate and, to the extent possible, prevent potential economic and political crises and deadly violent conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
18518. Moral Freedom or Moral Anarchy?
- Author:
- Alan Wolfe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
- Abstract:
- It is very difficult to discuss the issues which are raised in my book, without talking about September 11. This event is so important in our history, and, in fact, so important in the history of the modern world generally, that I am going to tailor at least some of my comments around it and try to reflect both on the event itself and on some of the things that I have said in my work over the course of the last few years and how these things interact with each other.
- Topic:
- Education, Government, Politics, and Religion
18519. Fear, Security and the Apocalyptic World View: The Cold War's Cultural Impact and Legacy
- Author:
- Paul S. Boyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
- Abstract:
- In 1967, Louis Halle published a book called The Cold War as History. If that title seemed jarring and premature in 1967, it would simply appear obvious and conventional today. The Cold War is receding from our collective consciousness with breathtaking rapidity. Cold War encyclopedias are appearing; an Oxford Companion to the Cold War will doubtless arrive at any moment. To the college freshmen of 2000 — seven years old when Ronald Reagan left the White House — the Cold War is merely a chapter in a textbook, an hour on the History Channel, not lived experience.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Communism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
18520. Pathways of Property Transformation: Enterprise Network Careers in Hungary, 1988-2000 Outline of an Analytic Strategy
- Author:
- Balázs Vedres and David Stark
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This study analyzes the restructuring of a national economy by identifying the career pathways of its enterprises. This analysis is conducted in a setting strategically chosen as a case of rapid and profound economic transformation: the postsocialist Hungarian economy between 1988-2000. The goal of this study is to chart the multiple pathways of property transformation. Property pathways are conceptualized as the patterned sequences of change that firms undergo 1) in the composition of their ownership structure and 2) in their position within network structures of ties to other enterprises. These career pathways are neither unidirectional nor plotted in advance. The landscape and topography of the socioeconomic field are given shape and repeatedly transformed by the interaction of the multiple strategies of firms attempting to survive in the face of variable political, institutional, and market uncertainties. These different types of uncertainties will have different temporalities, and the study explores whether and how they increase or diminish in various periods. We develop and test specific hypotheses about how enterprise pathways along the compositional and positional property dimensions are related to the shifting contexts of these types of uncertainty. The core dataset for this study includes the complete ownership histories of approximately 1,800 of the largest enterprises in Hungary for a twelve year period, starting with the collapse of communism in 1989, recording each change in a company's top 25 owners on a monthly basis. Monthly entries for each enterprise also include changes in top management, boards of directors, major lines of product activity, raising or lowering of capital, and location of establishments and branch offices, as well as the dates of founding, mergers, bankruptcy, etc. Data on revenues, number of employees, and operating profit will be compiled from annual balance sheets. These rich data make it possible to map the life cycles of the business groups that are formed by network ties among enterprises, identifying not only when they arise, merge, or dissipate, but also the changing shapes of their network properties. To identify patterns of change, the study draws on sequence analysis, a research tool that makes possible the study of historical processes in an eventful way similar to historiography while retaining social scientific abstraction. Whereas sequence analysis has given us a perspective on careers as historical processes but has not been applied to business organizations, network analysis has been applied to business organizations but has not been done historically. The methodological innovation at the heart of this study is to combine the tools of sequence analysis and network analysis to yield a sequence analysis of changing network positions.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Hungary
18521. Opposite-Sex Twins and Adolescent Same-Sex Attraction
- Author:
- Peter Bearman and Hannah Bruckner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- We consider social, genetic, evolutionary, and hormonal transfer hypotheses for same-sex romantic preferences of adolescent (N=5,552) sibling pairs drawn from a nationally representative sample. We show that male but not female opposite-sex twins disproportionately report same-sex attraction; and that the pattern of concordance of same-sex preference among siblings is inconsistent with a simple genetic influence model. Our results provide substantial support for the role of social influences, reject the hormone transfer model, reject a speculative evolutionary theory, and are consistent with a general model that allows for genetic expression of same-sex attraction under specific, highly circumscribed, social conditions.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues and Science and Technology
18522. On the Uneven Evolution of Human Know-How
- Author:
- Richard R. Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Economists long have understood that the advance of technology, knowhow is a more inclusive term, has been the central driving force behind the improvements in standards of living that have been achieved over the last two centuries. It has been less well recognized that the advance of knowhow has been extremely uneven, dramatic in areas like communication and computation technologies and some areas of medicine, very limited in fields like housing construction and education. This essay is a preliminary investigation of the factors that might lie behind these differences. The search very quickly leads into exploration of why different fields of science have progressed so unevenly.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Education, and Science and Technology
18523. Distributing Intelligence and Organizing Diversity in New Media Projects
- Author:
- Monique Girard and David Starkj
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how web design firms in the emergent new media industry probe and experiment with possible forms and sources of value giving shape to the new economy. Focusing on the collaborative engineering of cross-disciplinary web-design project teams, we examine how websites emerge as provisional settlements among the heterogeneous disciplines as they negotiate working compromises across competing performance criteria.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
18524. Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series-Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure
- Author:
- Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman, and Sharyn O'Halloran
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates a variety of dynamic probit models for time-series–cross-section data in the context of explaining state failure. It shows that ordinary probit, which ignores dynamics, is misleading. Alternatives that seem to produce sensible results are the transition model and a model which includes a lagged latent dependent variable. It is argued that the use of a lagged latent variable is often superior to the use of a lagged realized dependent variable. It is also shown that the latter is a special case of the transition model. The relationship between the transition model and event history methods is also considered: the transition model estimates an event history model for both values of the dependent variable, yielding estimates that are identical to those produced by the two event history models. Furthermore, one can incorporate the insights gleaned from the event history models into the transition analysis, so that researchers do not have to assume duration independence. The conclusion notes that investigations of the various models have been limited to data sets which contain long sequences of zeros; models may perform differently in data sets with shorter bursts of zeros and ones.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
18525. Policy Space and voting Coalitions in Congress: the Bearing of Policy on Politics, 1930-1954
- Author:
- Ira Katznelson, John Lapinski, and Rose Razaghian
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The question of how the substance of politics helps shape legislative coalitions and bases of support has been displaced from the center of studies of Congress since the publication of pioneering work in the 1960s and early 1970s. Seeking to revive this research program, we apply an original coding scheme in tandem with a factor analytic analysis of voting and policy space to the period spanning the last years of the Hoover presidency to the start of Eisenhower's. Investigating legislator parameters—the dimensions of voting space—and roll call parameters—the dimensions of policy space—the paper confirms the strong independent impact of the substance of policy on the political decisions of legislators and reveals an issue-specific concatenation of party and region that altered over the course of the period.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
18526. Self-Control for the Righteous: toward a Theory of Luxury Pre-Commitment
- Author:
- Ran Kivetz and Itamar Simonson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Prior research has examined consumers' use of self-control to avoid hedonic (myopic) temptations, such as overbuying and smoking. We propose that consumers often exercise the opposite form of self-control, whereby they attempt to avoid default forms of spending on necessities and savings in favor of luxury, hedonic purchases. In particular, given the difficulty of choosing hedonic luxury items over necessities and cash in everyday (local) decisions, under certain conditions, consumers pre-commit to hedonic luxury consumption. Such pre-commitments to hedonic luxuries are more likely to occur when their psychological cost is less concrete. These propositions were tested in a series of studies involving real and hypothetical choices as well as process measures. The results indicate that a substantial segment of consumers choose hedonic luxury prizes over cash of equal or greater value; most of these consumers explain such choices as motivated by the need to pre-commit in order to guarantee a hedonic luxury experience and that the award does not end up in the pool of money used for necessities. In addition, consistent with our analysis, the likelihood of pre-committing to hedonic luxuries is enhanced when (a) the consequences of the decision will be realized farther in the future, (b) the odds of winning the reward are lower, and (c) consumers anticipate how they will use each possible award. We also show that hedonic luxury awards are more effective than cash as incentives for participation in a (real) lottery. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
18527. Agricultural Biotechnology's Complementary Intellectual Assets
- Author:
- Gregory D. Graff, Gordon C. Rausser, and Arthur A. Small
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- We formulate and test a hypothesis for the dramatic restructuring that the plant breeding and seed industry has recently undergone: the reorganization can be explained in part by the desire to exploit complementarities between intellectual assets needed to create genetically modified organisms. This hypothesis is tested using data on agricultural biotechnology patents, notices for field tests of genetically modified organisms, and firm characteristics. The presence of complementarities is identified with a positive covariance in the unexplained variation of asset holdings. Results indicate that coordination of complementary assets have increased under the consolidation of the industry.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
18528. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace
- Author:
- Benjamin Miller
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and South America
18529. International And Transatlantic Images Of Belonging: The United States And Europe In The 21st Century
- Author:
- John A. Hall
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This topic was suggested to me by a fellow academic. Otherdirectedness has normally appealed to me in intellectual affairs, for it has encouraged thought on subjects otherwise not on my agenda. But I am uncomfortable on this occasion. Explaining why I feel as if I have been offered what chess players' refer to as a poisoned pawn allows immediate highlighting of the argument to be made.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
18530. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, will remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000- testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. According to the US Committee for Refugees, roughly 35 million people are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. There are twenty-four ongoing humanitarian emergencies and new or renewed emergencies could appear in the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and/or Central America. Humanitarian conditions throughout the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, Iraq, and North Korea will continue to have a particularly significant impact upon regional stability, as well as on the strategic interests of major outside powers. Conditions are likely to worsen in Angola, Colombia, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Republic of Serbia within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), excluding the province of Kosovo. The current drought in the Horn of Africa may induce a famine as severe as that of the mid-1980s. The humanitarian situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC) and Sierra Leone are unlikely to improve significantly even if pending peace accords hold, and could worsen considerably if such accords were to fail. In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or technological or natural disasters- leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies: Resumed hostilities between India and Pakistan that expanded beyond the borders of Kashmir, as they did in previous conflicts, would displace a million or more people on both sides of the border. The countries of Central America and the Caribbean that were battered by hurricanes in 1998- especially Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Haiti-remain vulnerable to weather-induced disasters. Internal ethnic conflict would create substantial humanitarian needs in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The possibility of additional sudden economic emergencies also cannot be discounted. In Russia, drought threatens the grain harvest, and unless the outlook improves, Moscow will again need large-scale food assistance. Despite Nigeria's turn toward democracy, escalating conflict in the oil-rich Niger River Delta region could lead to widespread refugee flows into neighboring countries. The possible effects of widespread Y2K-related difficulties could aggravate current humanitarian emergencies or lead to new emergencies. The overall demand for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 may exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Overall funding for ongoing emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo. Nevertheless, the focus on the Balkans could detract attention and resources from other regions with extensive humanitarian needs. Absent major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward, increasing the shortfall. Government funding is likely to decline fastest for long-lasting conflicts where attempts at political resolution continue to fail.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Balkans, and Central America
18531. Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Jabber
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this analysis is to assess the likely impact that the US campaign against global terrorism launched in the wake of the attacks of September 11th, 2001, will have on key American interests in the Middle East over the medium term (next 12 months). The main focus will be on the expected perceptions and reaction to US policy of selected important Middle East actors, regime stability and changing regional alignments.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- America and Middle East
18532. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The ballistic missile remains a central element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this status over the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources in efforts to develop or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures necessary to sustain future development and production; and actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for domestic shortfalls, gain increased expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
18533. The Global War on Terrorism
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- On September 11, terrorists attacked freedom. The world has responded with an unprecedented coalition against international terrorism. In the first 100 days of the war, President George W. Bush increased America's homeland security and built a worldwide coalition that: Began to destroy al-Qaeda's grip on Afghanistan by driving the Taliban from power. Disrupted al-Qaeda's global operations and terrorist financing networks. Destroyed al-Qaeda terrorist training camps. Helped the innocent people of Afghanistan recover from the Taliban's reign of terror. Helped Afghans put aside long-standing differences to form a new interim government that represents all Afghans – including women.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
18534. Workshop on Information Technology in Africa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The last 20 years have been characterized by rapid improvements in information technology and have com e to be regarded as the “Information Revolution.” The Information Revolution is changing the speed at which information is communicated, the facility with which calculations can be conducted in real time, and the costs and speed of observation of physical phenomena. Applications of IT in transportation mean that people and goods can be moved m o re efficiently; applications to the production process mean that goods and services can be produced m o re efficiently.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa
18535. An Empirical Comparison of Bundesbank and ECB Monetary Policy Rules
- Author:
- John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, and Jon Faust
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We estimate a monetary policy reaction function for the Bundesbank and use it as a benchmark to assess the monetary policy of the ECB since the launch of the euro in January 1999. We find that euro interest rates are low relative to this benchmark. We consider several possible reasons for this, including the divergence between core and headline inflation, inflation having turned out to be higher than could have been foreseen by the ECB and the possibility that the ECB is focussing only on macroeconomic conditions in a subset of member countries. We argue that these potential explanations cannot account for the difference between recent interest rates and our estimated Bundesbank benchmark. Our results suggest that the reaction function of the ECB features a high weight on the output gap relative to the weight on inflation, compared to the Bundesbank.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
18536. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The capacity and willingness of the international community to respond to humanitarian emergencies will continue to be stretched through December 2002. The overall number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance—now approximately 42 million—is likely to increase: Five ongoing emergencies—in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, North Korea and Sudan—cause almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian assistance as internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, or others in need in their home locations. All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) or Indonesia. The total number of humanitarian emergencies—20—is down from 25 in January 2000. Of the current emergencies: Eleven are in countries experiencing internal conflict—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DROC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Two—in Iraq and North Korea—are due largely to severe government repression. The remaining six—in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yugoslavia—are humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The primary cause of the emergency in Tajikistan is drought. Several other countries currently experiencing humanitarian emergencies—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, North Korea, Somalia, and Sudan—also are affected by major, persistent natural disasters.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Government, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia
18537. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
- Author:
- Jane Ihrig and Joseph E. Gagon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation appears to have declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in the rate of pass-through to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on twenty industrial countries between 1971 and 2003. We find widespread evidence of a robust and statistically significant link between estimated rates of pass-through and inflation variability. We also find evidence that observed monetary policy behavior may be a factor in the declining rate of pass-through.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
18538. Battling International Bribery 2001
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The battle against international bribery and other forms of public corruption remains a high priority for the United States. As President George W. Bush stated in his May 2001 message to the Second Global Forum on Fighting Corruption, “The corruption of governmental institutions threatens our common interests in promoting political and economic stability, upholding core democratic values, ending the reign of dictators, and creating a level playing field for lawful business activities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
18539. Report on Biological Warfare Defense: Vaccine Research Development Programs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Section 218 of the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2001, Public Law (PL) 106-398 (at Appendix A) requires the submission of a report to the congressional defense committees on the acquisition of biological defense vaccines for the Department of Defense (DoD). As required by section 218, PL 106-398, this report addresses: 1) the implications of relying on the commercial sector to meet the DoD's biological defense vaccine requirements; 2) a design for a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) vaccine production facility; 3) preliminary cost estimates and schedule for the facility; 4) consultation with the Surgeon General on the utility of such a facility for the production of vaccines for the civilian sector and the impact of civilian production on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs; and 5) the impact of international vaccine requirements and the production of vaccines to meet those requirements on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
18540. Russia in the International System
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Russia's Foreign Policy Russian foreign policy in the coming years will be characterized by weakness; frustration--primarily with the United States as the world's preeminent power--over Russia's diminished status; generally cautious international behavior; and a drive to resubjugate, though not reintegrate, the other former Soviet states. The international situation affords Russia time to concentrate on domestic reforms because, for the first time in its history, it does not face significant external threats. But rather than use the breathing space for domestic reforms, Putin is as much--if not more--focused on restoring Russia's self-defined rightful role abroad and seeking to mold the CIS into a counterweight to NATO and the European Union. The Outside World's Views of Russia Russia does not have any genuine allies. Some countries are interested in good relations with Russia, but only as a means to another end. For example, China sees Russia as a counterweight to the United States but values more highly its ties with the United States. Some countries see Russia as a vital arms supplier but resent Russia also selling arms to their rivals (China-India, Iran-Iraq). Pro-Russia business lobbies exist in Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Israel (one-fifth of whose population now consists of Soviet émigres), but they do not single-handedly determine national policies. Europe is the only region that would like to integrate Russia into a security system, but it is divided over national priorities and institutional arrangements as well as put off by some Russian behavior. Most CIS governments do not trust their colossal neighbor, which continues to show an unsettling readiness to intervene in their internal affairs, though they know Russia well and are to a considerable degree comfortable in dealing with it. Turkey has developed an improved dialogue and an unprecedented number of economic ties with Russia during the post-Cold War period, but this more positive pattern of relations has not fully taken root, and Ankara remains suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow's role in the Middle East has been reduced, but Israel, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq all favor good relations with Russia. Mutual interests also override disagreements in Russian-Iranian relations, but Tehran is wary of Russian behavior, particularly toward Saddam Hussein. India still trusts Russia--a sentiment that is perhaps a residue of the genuine friendship of Cold War days--but clearly not in the same way it once did, and New Delhi fears that weakness will propel Russia into doing things that could drive India further away. In East Asia, the most substantial breakthrough has been the resurrected relationship between Russia and China, one that entails significant longer-term risk for Russia. Other countries in the region value their links with Moscow as a means to balance a more powerful China, or as a useful component of their larger political and economic strategies, but Russia's role in East Asia--as elsewhere--remains constrained by the decline in its political, military, and economic power over the last decade. Russia's Weakness Russia's weakness stems from long-term secular trends and from its domestic structure. In essence, the old nomenklatura and a few newcomers have transformed power into property on the basis of personal networks and created an equilibrium resting on insider dealings. These insiders may jockey for position but have a vested interest in preserving the system. The public does not like the system but is resigned to it and gives priority to the preservation of order. As for the economy, it is divided into a profitable, internationally integrated sector run by oligarchs and a much larger, insulated, low-productivity, old-style paternalistic sector that locks Russia into low growth. No solace will be forthcoming from the international business and energy worlds. They do not expect the poor commercial climate to improve greatly and will not increase investments much beyond current levels until it does. Militarily, Russia will also remain weak. Its nuclear arsenal is of little utility, and Moscow has neither the will nor the means to reform and strengthen its conventional forces. Hope for the Future? The best hope for change in Russia lies with the younger generation. Several participants reported that under-25 Russians have much more in common with their US counterparts, including use of the Internet, than with older Soviet generations. But there was some question over whether the new generation would change the system or adapt to it. Others placed some hope in international institutions, for instance the World Trade Organization, eventually forcing Russia to adapt to the modern world. Dissenting Views Some participants dissented from the overall forecast of depressing continuity. The keynote speaker, James Billington, stated that Russia would not be forever weak and that the current confusion would end in a few years either through the adoption of authoritarian nationalism or federated democracy. One scholar felt the Chechen war was feeding ethnic discord in other areas of the Federation to which Moscow would respond with increased authoritarianism, not necessarily successfully. Finally, a historian observed that the patience of Russians is legendary but not infinite, meaning that we should not be overly deterministic.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Middle East, and Israel
18541. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on High Energy Laser Weapon Systems Applications
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Several decades of science and technology, concept development, and engineering development have provided the underpinnings for a significant contribution by high-energy lasers (HELs) to national security needs. The potential for speed-of-light response with a wide variety of effects to support a variety of missions suggests a new level of flexibility and adaptability-attributes that are particularly valuable in the complex national security environment currently existing and unfolding. As in the case of most important new technologies, we are just beginning to understand and exploit the potential of high-energy lasers. It is nonetheless important to realize the extent of this potential. Directed-energy weapons can add a new dimension to a wide range of missions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
18542. Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship
- Author:
- Chang-Jin Kim, Jeremy Piger, and Richard Startz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have contributed to these recessions. We also allow for the timing of switches from boom to recession for the permanent component to be correlated with switches from boom to recession in the transitory component. The parameter estimates suggest a specific pattern of recessions: switches in the permanent component lead switches in the transitory component both when entering and leaving recessions.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico
18543. Second Annual Report
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam
18544. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Future DoD Airborne High-Frequency Radar Needs/Resources
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Defense Science Board Task Force was formed to address questions related to the development of X-band, active, electronically steered arrays (AESAs) for airborne platforms. Areas focused on were advanced radar capabilities for ground targets and air targets.The airborne radar inventory can be divided into three broad categories:(1) Air target surveillance and cueing radars mounted in rotodomes (e.g., AWACS,-2C).(2) Nose- mounted fighter radars for air and ground targets (e.g., F-15, F-16, F-22, JSF).(3) Side-looking radars for ground reconnaissance, surveillance, and cueing (e.g., U-2, JSTARS, Global Hawk). Categories (2) and (3) are dominated by X-band radars; the insertion of AESA technology into category (3) was the primary subject for this task force.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
18545. The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan
- Author:
- Jane Haltmaier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick-Prescott filter over the most recent period when such estimates are generally considered to be unreliable. The second estimates equilibrium levels of the cyclical indicators and uses an Okun's Law-type relationship to derive output gaps and potential output. The second method is also applied to the components of potential output to derive a third estimate. These methods suggest that the current Japanese output gap is considerably larger than a simple Hodrick-Prescott filter would suggest.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Japan
18546. Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered
- Author:
- Francis E. Warnock
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Tesar and Werner (1995) finding of very high turnover rates on foreign equity portfolios is based on an underestimation of cross-border equity positions. Foreign turnover rates calculated using information from comprehensive benchmark surveys on cross-border holdings are much lower than previously reported and comparable to domestic turnover rates. However, the basic intuition from the Tesar-Werner study, that transaction costs do not help explain the observed home bias, is confirmed using data on transaction costs in 41 markets.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
18547. A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson, Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
18548. Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries
- Author:
- John H. Rogers and Hayden P. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Using consumer price indexes from cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, we estimate the "border effect" on U.S.-Mexican relative prices and find that it is nearly an order of magnitude larger than for U.S.-Canadian prices. However, during a very stable sub-period in Mexico (May 1988 to November 1994), the "width" of the U.S.-Mexican border falls dramatically and becomes approximately equal to the U.S.-Canadian border. We then show that when consideration is limited to cities lying geographically very close to the U.S.-Mexican border--San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez, and Matamoros--the border width falls compared to that estimated with the full sample of U.S. and Mexican cities, but falls only very slightly. We also present evidence that the border effect in U.S.-Mexican prices is not primarily due to the border effect in U.S.-Mexican wages. Finally, using the prices of 276 highly dis-aggregated goods and services, we estimate the variability of relative prices of different items within Mexican cities. This measure of relative price variability declines during the stable peso sub-period, but by less than the decline in nominal and real (i.e., CPI-based) exchange rate variability. Our results are strong evidence of a "nominal border effect" in relative prices within NAFTA, but also indicate that real side influences are important.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
18549. Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe
- Author:
- John H. Rogers
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18550. Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the United States
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- During the next 15 years, globalization, demographic imbalances between OECD and developing countries, and interstate and civil conflicts will fuel increasing international migration, much of it illegal. Migration will have positive and negative consequences for sending and receiving countries alike. Other countries' responses to migration issues will affect migration pressures on the United States and a broad range of US economic and security interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States