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15201. Economic Policy Coordination in EMU: What Role for the SGP?

Author:
Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The present paper discusses the implications of the recent institutional crisis in the EU provoked by the failure of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) to impose the sanction on Germany and France provided for in the Stability and Growth Pact, along with Article 104 and the associated protocol of the Maastricht Treaty. The paper situates the debate concerning the application of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in a broader evolution of the struggle between two schools of thought concerning macroeconomic policy–making in the European Union: the school calling for a strengthening of competences at the EU level (federal economic government) and the school arguing for preserving national competences for budgetary policy even in the face of the transfer of competence for monetary policy to the European Central Bank (ECB). The paper argues that the SGP represents an acceptable comprise between the two views of the schools in so far as it establishes rules to be respected without actually transferring competence to the Council in the field of budgetary policy. Consequently, the SGP has not and does not add to the 'democratic deficit' within the EU institutional framework. The paper argues, nevertheless, that the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) puts too strong an emphasis on the government budget deficit and suggests that emphasis on the sustainable level of public debt would ensure a stronger basis for assessing whether a given budget deficit may be considered excessive or not.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

15202. Theorising European Strategic Culture: Between Convergence and the Persistence of National Diversity

Author:
Christoph O. Meyer
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This working document focuses on the dynamics and scope of strategic culture–building in the context of the European Union's aspirations to develop a European security and defence policy (ESDP). It argues that the notion of strategic culture can be useful in assessing the context in which the ESDP will develop further as well as its performance in matters of conflict prevention, management and resolution. Nevertheless, in order to be conceptually and empirically useful, strategic culture needs to be disaggregated into collective norms about the means and ends of security policy, as well as its different carriers such as political elites, societies and armed forces. The paper examines the convergence thesis and suggests three theories to explain convergence informed by realist, constructivist and regional theories of political change. Yet the paper also argues that these forces can affect national strategic cultures differently, depending on the countries' geopolitical positions, the institutional stickiness of domestic ideas, values and norms, and the degree to which such norms are subject to partisan or societal contention. On this basis, the paper advances some hypotheses about the actual extension of the convergence process, which will need to be validated by further empirical study.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

15203. Economic Prospects for Kaliningrad: Between EU Enlargement and Russia's Integration into the World Economy

Author:
Evgeny Vinokurov
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Kaliningrad oblast of Russia is currently an important focal point of discussions between the European Union and Russia. Although small in terms of geography and population, Kaliningrad has grown in importance due to the EU enlargement process. Since the break–up of the Soviet Union, the oblast has become an exclave of Russia, and it is now set to also become an enclave within the EU. This paper examines the state of Kaliningrad's economy and trade. The economic crisis that took place in Russia in the 1990s had severe consequences for Kaliningrad, as old patterns of production and trade were disrupted. Since 1999, however, the regional economy has grown with impressive speed. Kaliningrad's Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status has played a crucial role in determining its new patterns of production and trade specialisation. The paper argues that the SEZ regime has made the region's economic growth faster but also vulnerable.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

15204. Can Labour Market Institutions Explain Unemployment Rates in New EU Member States?

Author:
Sjef Ederveen and Laura Thissen
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study poses the question about whether labour market institutions can explain unemployment rates in the ten new European Union member states. In five out of the ten new member states, unemployment rates lie above the average in the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) that comprised the EU prior to May 2004. The study finds that labour market institutions in the acceding countries are less rigid than in the EU-15. Moreover, labour market institutions explain only a minor part of unemployment in the new EU member states. This does not mean that these countries have no labour market problems. Just as in the EU-15, a great deal of heterogeneity exists among the acceding countries. In some of them, labour market reforms could prove a key issue in improving employment performance. The main worry is the poor labour market performance in Poland and the Slovak Republic, where unemployment has risen to almost 20%. The main reasons for this growth are i) postponed restructuring in combination with tight monetary policy; ii) poor governance; and iii) an increasing labour force.
Topic:
Economics and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

15205. Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Co-Movements in the New and Old Members

Author:
Zsolt Darvas and Gyorgy Szapary
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is generally recognised that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyse the synchronisation of business cycles between the EMU-12 and the eight new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs), for which the next step to be considered in the integration process is entry into the EMU. In contrast to the usually analysed GDP and industrial production data, we extend our analysis to the major expenditure and sectoral components of GDP and use several measures of synchronisation. The main findings of the paper are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronisation with EMU for GDP, industrial production and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronisation. There has been a significant increase in the synchronisation of GDP and also its major components in the EMU members since the start of the run-up to EMU. While this lends support for the existence of OCA endogeneity, it cannot be unambiguously attributed to it because there is also evidence of a world business cycle. Another finding is that the consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members, which is good news for common monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

15206. Searching for the Determinants of IT Investment: Panel Data Evidence on European Countries

Author:
Paolo Guerrieri, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, and Stefano Manzocchi
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to identify the degree of information technology (IT) adoption in individual European economies and to analyse the determinants of IT investment among a panel of EU countries. We first analyse the dynamics of IT investment expenditure in 15 European countries from 1992 until 2001 and, by means of a cluster analysis, we draw a picture of IT diffusion in Europe. By clustering the European countries according to their shares of IT spending over GDP, we identify three fairly stable groups of fast, medium and slow adopters. We then build an econometric equation of the determinants of IT investment to use with panel data in estimations for five European economies over the period of 1980 to 2001. We consider aggregate IT investment as well as separate investment in hardware or software. Financial conditions, income growth and comparative advantage turn out to affect IT investment, but we find that the determinants of hardware investment only partially overlap with those of software.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

15207. European Homeland Security Post-March 11th and Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Didier Bigo, Jeremy Shapiro, and Andrei Fedorov
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the oral presentation of their papers, Didier Bigo, Jeremy Shapiro and Andrei Fedorov generally highlighted their respective region's specificities rather than dwelling on the elements of commonality. Although this was in part a consequence of the European Security Forum's modus operandi – with its differentiated European, American and Russian perspectives, rarely in our meetings has the contrast been so clearly highlighted.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

15208. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue in Africa: Lessons from Uganda

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
HIV/AIDS prevention and conflict prevention should go hand in hand. They are the two blades of the scissors required to cut the strangler's cord choking Africa. Some 2.5 million Africans will die of AIDS in 2004. One in four African countries presently suffers from the effects of armed conflict.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

15209. Identity Crisis: Israel and Its Arab Citizens

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For much of its history, Israel has focused on the neighbouring Arab states and Palestinians living in the occupied territories. Too often overlooked has been the status of those Israeli citizens who are Arab. They have attracted national attention only at times of heightened crisis, and even then in a highly reactive fashion. Unless systemic inequities facing Arab Israelis are addressed and an inclusive process is launched to define the state's long-term attitude towards this segment of its citizenry, prospects for internal strife and instability will remain high.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Israel and Arabia

15210. Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The removal of the Ba'ath regime in 2003 opened a Pandora's box of long-suppressed aspirations, none as potentially explosive as the Kurds' demand, expressed publicly and with growing impatience, for wide-ranging autonomy in a region of their own, including the oil- rich governorate of Kirkuk. If mismanaged, the Kurdish question could fatally undermine the political transition and lead to renewed violence. Kurdish leaders need to speak more candidly with their followers about the compromises they privately acknowledge are required, and the international community needs to work more proactively to help seal the historic deal.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Arabia, and Kirkuk

15211. Islamism in North Africa II: Egypt's Opportunity

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Important changes in the outlook of Egyptian Islamic activism in recent years have opened up possibilities for progressive political development, but these have gone unexploited because of the conservatism of the Egyptian government's policies. The absence of serious violence since late 1997 strongly suggests that the strategy of armed struggle (jihad) against the state has not only failed but has effectively been abandoned. At the same time, the ideology of non-violent Islamic activism has evolved and now emphatically embraces democratic principles and elements of a modernist outlook. However, unless the Egyptian government changes its approach, opens up the political field and undertakes serious political reform, the frustration which many Egyptians feel could lead to a recrudescence of violent activism at some stage. The government risks realising too late that it has squandered a vital opportunity and wasted the fruits of its own earlier successes on the security front.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Egypt

15212. Serbia's U-turn

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In politics and policies, Serbia increasingly resembles the Milosevic-era without Milosevic. Its reaction to the catastrophic mid-March 2004 near collapse of the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the strong showing by ultra-nationalists in the 28 December 2003 parliamentary elections and the subsequent two-months of squabbling before democratic parties could form a minority government that depends for survival on the support of Milosevic's old party all are signs that more trouble lies ahead. In 2004 Serbia can anticipate continued political instability, increasingly strained relations with the West and further economic decline. The spasm of ethnic cleansing of Serbs by Albanians in Kosovo has raised the prospect of Kosovo partition, strengthened the nationalist right wing and increased anti-Western sentiment. Instability and economic weakness could hasten moves by Montenegro towards independence, while Kosovo tensions could spill over into the Presevo valley, Sandzak and even Vojvodina.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

15213. Islamism in North Africa I: The Legacies of History

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Islamism, terrorism, reform: the triangle formed by these three concepts and the complex and changeable realities to which they refer is at the centre of political debate in and about North Africa today. The role of Egyptian elements in the leadership of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation is well-known, if not necessarily well understood. The involvement of Maghrebis in terrorist networks in Europe -- whether linked to al-Qaeda or not -- has recently been underlined by the suspected involvement of Moroccans in the 11 March 2004 attack in Madrid. Egypt itself has endured years of terrorist violence; few if any countries have suffered as much from terrorism as Algeria has over the last twelve years; and the bombings in Casablanca on 16 May 2003 suggest that Morocco is not immune.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, and Morocco

15214. Collapse In Kosovo

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 17 March 2004, the unstable foundations of four and a half years of gradual progress in Kosovo buckled and gave way. Within hours the province was immersed in anti-Serb and anti-UN rioting and had regressed to levels of violence not seen since 1999. By 18 March the violence mutated into the ethnic cleansing of entire minority villages and neighbourhoods. The mobs of Albanian youths, extremists and criminals exposed the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the NATO-led peacekeeping force (KFOR) as very weak. Kosovo's provisional institutions of self-government (PISG), media and civil society afforded the rioters licence for mayhem. The international community urgently needs new policies -- on final status and socio-economic development alike -- or Kosovo instability may infect the entire region.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kosovo, United Nations, and Albania

15215. Northern Uganda: Understanding and Solving the Conflict

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For nearly eighteen years the insurgency of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), led by Joseph Kony, has produced great suffering in Northern Uganda, including some 1.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Jan Egeland recently termed the situation among the worst humanitarian disasters in the world. In February 2004, in one of the most horrific atrocities since the conflict began, the LRA massacred approximately 200 civilians, revealing serious deficiencies in the government's capacity to defend the population and defeat the insurgency. The conflict seriously blemishes the record of President Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement (NRM), which has otherwise brought relative stability to the country. The international community has leverage and at least strong humanitarian reasons to urge a more politically oriented strategy to resolve the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

15216. Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For all the sound and fury of international condemnation and domestic opposition, octogenarian President Robert Mugabe maintains the upper hand in Zimbabwe. He has bludgeoned opposition parties and neutralised mass action strategies, minimised African criticism, maintained South Africa's friendship, and withstood sporadic pressure from the wider international community. It has been a masterful performance. It is also one that has done massive damage to Zimbabwe's economy, which is shrinking at world record speed. It is time to acknowledge the collective failure to date, re- evaluate strategies for resolving the crisis, and concentrate on the opportunity presented by the March 2005 parliamentary elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

15217. Elections and Security in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Representatives of the Afghan government, the UN and the major donor countries and institutions will assemble in Berlin on 31 March and 1 April for the first high-level diplomatic meeting on Afghanistan in more than two years. The principal objective is to secure substantial long-term aid commitments -- the Afghan government seeks U.S.$27.6 billion over seven years. In addition to meeting this global figure, it will be important for donors to make multi-year pledges that provide a basis for predictability and to increase cash on hand for immediate projects over the coming year. All this is needed if Afghanistan's governance and security institutions are to be reconstructed, development goals met, and poverty alleviated.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and United Nations

15218. Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pakistan's military government launched a campaign for political devolution in 2000 that it said was aimed at transferring administrative and financial power to local governments. The scheme was to strengthen local control and accountability and, according to President Pervez Musharraf, "empower the impoverished". In practice, however, it has undercut established political parties and drained power away from the provinces while doing little to minimise corruption or establish clear accountability at a local level. The reforms, far from enhancing democracy, have strengthened military rule and may actually raise the risks of internal conflict.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

15219. The Failure of Reform in Uzbekistan: Ways Forward for the International Community

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Uzbekistan occupies a key strategic position in Central Asia and has a strong security relationship with the U.S. but its political system is highly repressive and its economy is barely reformed since Soviet times. Economic decline and political sclerosis threaten internal stability and undermine regional security. The international community has long urged political and economic reform, but with little success. With no significant progress on either front in 2003, it is time for the U.S., the EU and international financial institutions to begin to shift policies: reducing lending and assistance to the central government, while increasing engagement with society and the private sector.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

15220. Hostages for Prisoners: A Way to Peace in Colombia?

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In February 2004, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the major insurgent group, announced creation of a three-member negotiation commission and a "diplomatic offensive" aimed at obtaining the release of hundreds of its imprisoned members in exchange for about 60 military and political hostages it holds. This has raised hope among the relatives of hostages and kidnap victims that a "humanitarian exchange" could happen in the not too distant future.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

15221. Darfur Rising: Sudan's New Crisis

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan, where prospects for peace had looked so promising for much of 2003, has become a potential horror story in 2004. The rapid onset of war in its western region of Darfur has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises -- thousands dead and some 830,000 uprooted from homes. Meanwhile, the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority for Development) peace talks in Naivasha, Kenya between the government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) threaten to deadlock. It is urgent that these talks succeed and that, simultaneously, a parallel process begins to address both the humanitarian and political crises in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil War, Human Rights, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Sudan

15222. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong

15223. Nepal: Dangerous Plans for Village Militias

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Government of Nepal is creating local civilian militias – known as Rural Volunteer Security Groups and Peace Committees – in what risks becoming an alarming escalation of its conflict with Maoist rebels. Civilian militias are likely to become an untrained, unaccountable and undisciplined armed force that worsens a conflict that has already taken almost 9,000 lives. The scheme is controversial, and the government has publicly denied that it has already started distributing weapons despite evidence that it is indeed going ahead.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

15224. Indonesia Backgrounder: Jihad in Central Sulawesi

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent violence in Poso (Central Sulawesi) suggests a need to revise assessments about the nature and gravity of the terrorist threat in Indonesia. While the shorter term prospects are somewhat encouraging, there is an under appreciated longer term security risk.
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

15225. Pan-Albanianism: How Big A Threat To Balkan Stability?

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pan-Albanianism is seen by many observers as a serious threat to Balkan stability. A century of shifting borders has left ethnic Albanians scattered across Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the National Liberation Army (NLA) in Macedonia, and other groups have all waged campaigns of violence in support of enhanced rights for ethnic Albanians. Where is the ceiling to their ambitions?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro

15226. Syria Under Bashar (I): Foreign Policy Challenges

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the end of the Iraq war, Washington and Damascus have been locked in a dialogue of the deaf. U.S. policy has been reduced to a series of demands and threats. Syrian policy, with President Bashar still struggling to formulate and implement a coherent strategy, has been mainly wait-and-see – offering a few concessions and hoping to weather the storm while refusing to relinquish what it sees as trump cards (support for Hizbollah and radical Palestinian groups) so long as the conflict with Israel continues. Despite the current deadlock, however, the current regional situation presents an opportunity for an intensive, U.S.-led diplomatic effort to revive the Israeli-Syrian peace process and thereby achieve significant changes in Syrian policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

15227. Syria Under Bashar (II): Domestic Policy Challenges

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bashar al-Assad's presidency has failed to live up to the hopes for far-reaching domestic reform that greeted it in 2000. After a brief opening, Syria clamped down on dissent, and economic change remains painfully slow. Many who once viewed Bashar as a potential partner, open-minded, and Western-oriented, now perceive him as, if anything, more ideological than and just as tied to the Baathist regime as his father. Both assessments are overly simplistic and poor guides to dealing with a Syria that is at a crossroads. Syrian officials hint at significant steps in mid-2004, including possible changes in the Baath Party hierarchy and doctrine and moves toward a more open and inclusive political system. Scepticism is in order, as such pledges have repeatedly been made in the past only to be ignored. But with reform now a strategic imperative, Syria should turn hints into reality and the international community should find ways to encourage and to assist it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Arabia and Syria

15228. Palestinian Refugees and the Politics of Peacemaking

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When Israeli-Palestinian permanent status negotiations resume, a key stumbling block is likely to be the Palestinian refugee question. The plight of the refugees and the demand that their right of return be recognised has been central to the Palestinian struggle since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Palestinians warn that a dissatisfied, angry refugee community whose core demands remain unmet could undermine any peace agreement. For their part, Israelis reject any significant return of refugees, which would spell the end of the Jewish state. They suggest that the issue has been kept artificially alive by the Palestinian leadership and Arab states; improvements in the desultory living conditions of camp refugees coupled with substantial resettlement plans in host or third countries could, they argue, dilute the intensity of the demand for return.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

15229. Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan's Failure to Tackle Extremism

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It has been more than two years since President and Chief of Army Staff Pervez Musharraf pledged to reform Pakistani society by reversing the trend of Islamist extremism. In a televised speech, he promised a series of measures to combat extremism. One of the key issues was to bring all madrasas – the religious schools that educate many Pakistani children – into the mainstream and to increase scrutiny of them by controlling funding and curriculum.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

15230. Dealing With Hamas

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The escalating cycle of Israeli-Palestinian military confrontation since September 2000, the breakdown in mutual trust and continued suicide bombings by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) – the most recent on 14 January 2004 – have returned the problem of how to deal with Hamas to the centre of the Israeli-Palestinian political and diplomatic equation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

15231. Monitoring the Northern Ireland Ceasefires: Lessons from the Balkans

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This briefing compares the mandate of the Independent Monitoring Commission for Northern Ireland (IMC) with those of two recent European examples of the monitoring and enforcement of compliance with peace agreements: the unsuccessful Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM) of 1998-1999, and the much more fruitful mission of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina since 1995. It attempts to identify lessons from those earlier experiences that may help the IMC carry out its mission in the context of carrying forward the Good Friday peace process.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Ireland

15232. Rebuilding Liberia: Prospects and Perils

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Liberia is a collapsed state that has become in effect a UN protectorate. Whether its political and economic reconstruction can begin depends on how quickly security spreads throughout the country. Squabbles over jobs by leaders of the armed factions have caused near-paralysis in the transitional government. Faction leaders tried to block disarmament until they received more jobs, boding ill for the peace process. The display of cynicism and greed by fighters and political leaders alike has undermined international confidence ahead of the donors' conference that meets in New York, 5-6 February 2004.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
New York and Liberia

15233. International Organizations and Security Issues: An American Perspective

Author:
J. Matthew Vaccaro
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This memo outlines the perspectives of US foreign policy practioners concerning the role of international organizations in managing security issues. The memo is based on contemporary literature, numerous interviews with current and former US foreign policy practioners, and the views of the author, a former practioner. The author argues that an instrumental perspective of international organizations prevails among practioners regardless of the party-affiliation of the Administration. He concludes by proposing a methodology that can be used to understand and predict US participation within international organizations on security matters.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States

15234. Road to Ruin: Afghanistan's Booming Opium Industry

Author:
Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
President George W. Bush declared recently that “the people of Afghanistan are now free.” While the president boasts, Afghanistan's opium industry, which fosters terrorism, violence, debt bondage, and organized crime, has expanded to the point that it could undermine the entire U.S. and international effort. As President Bush's own special envoy and ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, recently admitted, ''[r]ather than getting better, it's gotten worse. There is a potential for drugs overwhelming the institutions – a sort of a narco-state."
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

15235. Building a New Afghanistan: The Value of Success, the Cost of Failure

Author:
Barnett Rubin, Abby Stoddard, Humayun Hamidzada, and Adib Farhadi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
On March 31, 2004, representatives of national governments and international organizations will meet in Berlin to renew their collective commitment to rebuild Afghanistan and ensure its future stability and development. The government of Afghanistan has thus far met all the deadlines and benchmarks required of it under the Bonn Agreement of December 5, 2001, and Afghanistan's international partners have made generous and at times risky contributions to that effort, including sacrificing the lives of some of their citizens.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Berlin

15236. Diaspora: the World Wide Web of Australians

Author:
Michael Fullilove and Chloë Flutter
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On any given day, there are approximately one million Australians outside Australia, perhaps three-quarters of whom live offshore on a permanent or long term basis. This latter group, the 'Australian diaspora', is large and, in the main, prosperous, well educated, well connected, and well disposed to this country. It is also very mobile: rather than turning their backs on Australia once and for all, expatriates these days are more likely to move back and forward between Australia and other countries as opportunities present.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, and Economics
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

15237. Unsheathing the Samurai Sword: Japan's Changing Security Policy

Author:
Alan Dupont
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This Lowy Institute Paper sheds analytical light on Japan's changing security policy and seeks answers to several important questions that are of major consequence for Australia and the wider region. What are Japan's strategic aspirations and what does Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi really mean when he talks about Japan becoming a 'normal country'? How signifi cant are the mooted revisions to the peace constitution and how different will the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) be in capability and structure a decade hence? As domestic anxieties increase will Japan move closer to the US or seek greater autonomy within the framework of the US alliance? Is it conceivable that the alliance itself could fracture or dissolve entirely? Will cooperation with the US on missile defence weaken the prohibition on collective self defence and under what circumstances might Japan acquire nuclear weapons?
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, Asia, and Australia

15238. River at risk: the Mekong and the Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia

Author:
Milton Osborne
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
By the middle of March 2004 there was growing concern in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia about the level of the Mekong River. Poor rains in the wet season of 2003 and a subsequent protracted dry period appeared to be largely to blame for the sharply lower level of water in the Mekong by comparison with 'normal' years. But the unusually dry season may not have been the only factor at work. Officials in Thailand have claimed that Chinese authorities have endeavoured to limit the flow of water out of the dams already built on the Mekong in China's Yunnan province, as they undertake new dam construction and continue work to clear the river of obstacles to navigation. At the same time, Thai officials suggest that unusual volatility in the river's flow reflects the manner in which China has been closing its dam gates. Gates are closed for three days, before opening them for one day to allow Chinese cargo vessels to travel to and from river ports in the southern Yunnan province and northern Thailand.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

15239. India: the Next Economic Giant

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indian economy is showing clear signs of realising its dormant potential. The impact of more than a decade of economic reforms, instigated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis, has now removed or at least mitigated some of the major economic distortions that have handicapped past economic performance. One important result has been a significant boost to the economy's overall potential growth rate. Another has been India's re-engagement with the global economy, which in turn has transformed the prospects of key sectors of the Indian economy. This transformation has been most visible in the case of information technology-related services exports, where India has already become an important global player. But there are also positive signs in the areas of merchandise trade and international capital flows. These trends will have important consequences for the international economy as a whole and for Australia in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

15240. North American Agriculture under NAFTA

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The NAFTA agreement on agricultural trade consists of three bilateral agreements—between the United States and Mexico, the United States and Cana da, and Canada and Mexico. The US-Canada agreement largely carried into NAFTA the tariff and nontariff barrier rules that had been adopted in the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). Under CUSFTA, most agriculture tariffs between the United States and Canada were to be phased out by January 1998, and this schedule was adopted by NAFTA for US-Canada agricultural trade. However, Canada was allowed to maintain permanent tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) restrictions on imports of dairy, poultry, and eggs; and the United States was allowed to maintain TRQs on imports of sugar, dairy products, and peanuts from Canada (see table 1). Although a tariff snapback provision remains in effect until 2008, it has rarely been used by Canada. Agricultural trade between Mexico and Canada was limited by virtually the same restrictions. As might be expected, some agriculture trade associations favored NAFTA and others opposed. Box 1 summarizes the lineup of important trade associations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

15241. NAFTA Dispute Settlement Systems

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Building on the 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), the NAFTA contains dispute settlement provisions in six separate areas. NAFTA Chapter 11 is designed to resolve investor-state disputes over property rights; Chapter 14 creates special provisions for handling disputes in the financial sector via the Chapter 20 dispute settlement process (DSP); Chapter 19 establishes a review mechanism to determine whether final antidumping and countervailing duty decisions made in domestic tribunals are consistent with national laws; and Chapter 20 provides government-to-government consultation, at the ministerial level, to resolve high-level disputes. In addition, the NAFTA partners created interstate dispute mechanisms regarding domestic environmental and labor laws under the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC), respectively. This chapter examines the first four dispute settlement systems; the NAAEC and NAALC systems are evaluated in the environment and labor chapters of this book.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

15242. Toward a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) has proposed that the APEC Leaders at Santiago on November 20-21 “agree to further examine the feasibility and potential scope and features of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP).” President Ricardo Lagos of Chile, the host of the APEC summit, has endorsed the concept. I believe that APEC should actively pursue the FTAAP idea. It offers the best prospects of any available strategy for catalyzing a successful outcome of the Doha Round and thus revitalizing the World Trade Organization (WTO). By forging a new transpacific initiative, it can counter the very real risk of disintegration of the Asia-Pacific region that is evident in the progress of Asia-only cooperation on one side of the ocean and a Free Trade Area of the Americas on the other side. It is the best possible device to reenergize APEC's progress toward its own signature trade liberalization goals and thus those of APEC as an institution. It offers a unique win-win-win opportunity that should be seized, beginning at Santiago and then at Pusan a year from now.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
America and Asia

15243. Doubling the Global Work Force: The Challenge of Integrating China, India, and the Former Soviet Bloc into the World Economy

Author:
Richard B. Freeman
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, and Western Europe

15244. WTO, E-commerce, and Information Technologies: From the Uruguay Round through the Doha Development Agenda

Author:
Sacha Wunsch-Vincent
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Although much of the early Internet hype has faded, e-commerce continues to grow and spread around the world. In recent years, the potential and importance of e-commerce to the economies and industries of the developing world has become particularly evident. Yet as e-commerce develops into a global phenomenon, the need for rules and principles facilitating e-commerce has become increasingly evident, too.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Uruguay

15245. A Short History of the Washington Consensus

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The term “Washington Consensus” was coined in 1989. The first written usage was in my background paper for a conference that the Institute for International Economics convened in order to examine the extent to which the old ideas of development economics that had governed Latin American economic policy since the 1950s were being swept aside by the set of ideas that had long been accepted as appropriate within the OECD. In order to try and ensure that the background papers for that conference dealt with a common set of issues, I made a list of ten policies that I thought more or less everyone in Washington would agree were needed more or less everywhere in Latin America, and labeled this the “Washington Consensus.” Little did it occur to me that fifteen years later I would be asked to write about the history of a term that had become the center of fierce ideological controversy.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington and Latin America

15246. What Went Right in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

15247. Selective Intervention and Growth: The Case of Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper attempts to determine whether conditions amenable to successful selective interventions to capture cross-industry externalities are likely to be fulfilled in practice. Three criteria are proposed for good candidates for industrial promotion: that they have strong interindustry links to the rest of the economy, that they lead the rest of the economy in a causal sense, and that they be characterized by a high s hare of industry-specific innovations in output growth. According to these criteria, likely candidates for successful intervention are identified in the Korean data. It is found that, with one exception, none of the sectors promoted by the heavy and chemical industry (HCI) policy fulfills all three criteria.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

15248. Popular Attitudes, Globalization, and Risk

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Popular opposition to globalization may be interpreted as xenophobia or hostility to market economics and signal country risk, including the degree of security risk—the possibility that local staff or facilities could be subject to discriminatory treatment, harassment, or attack. This paper integrates the Pew Global Attitudes data into a series of economic models on foreign direct investment (FDI), sovereign ratings, and local entrepreneurship and finds that some responses correlate with economic variables of interest, conveying information beyond what can be explained through standard models. More tolerant countries attract more FDI, obtain better ratings, and exhibit more entrepreneurship.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment

15249. Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
During the past year, there has been considerable debate about, and much international criticism of, China's exchange rate and its currency regime. Yes, criticism of China in the United States would likely be more muted if the ongoing recovery were not so “jobless,” if employment in the US manufacturing sector had not (mainly for other reasons) declined so much in the three-year run-up to this presidential elect ion year, if so much attention were not focused on the very large bilateral US trade deficit with China instead of China's economically—more meaningful overall balance-of-payments position, and if the United States had not done such a poor job of improving its saving-investment imbalance—particularly in the public sector.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

15250. Islam, Globalization, and Economic Performance in the Middle East

Author:
Marcus Noland and Howard Pack
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Middle East is a demographic time bomb. According to the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) Arab Human Development Report 2002, the population of the Arab region is expected to increase by around 25 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 50 to 60 percent by 2020— or by perhaps 150 million people, a figure equivalent to more than two Egypts. Even under the UNDP's more conservative scenario, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates will be the only Arab countries in 2020 with median ages above 30.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Globalization, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates