Number of results to display per page
Search Results
19522. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson, Kari H. Eika, and Ragnar Nymoen
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden, and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables' effects on longer-term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
19523. Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves
- Author:
- Chan Huh
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are characterized by large associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
19524. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 07-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
19525. American-Ukrainian Nuclear Relations
- Author:
- Roman Popadiuk
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- On June 1, 1996, the last strategic missiles were shipped from Ukraine to Russia, bringing to an end a contentious issue that had marred the early stages of U.S.-Ukraine relations. In welcoming this development, President Clinton stated, “I applaud the Ukrainian government for its historic contribution in reducing the nuclear threat .... We remain committed to supporting Ukraine through its ambitious and far-sighted reforms and to working with Ukraine and our European partners to promote Ukraine's integration into the European community.”
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Johannesburg
19526. Caribbean Security on the Eve of the 21st Century
- Author:
- Ivelaw L. Griffith
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the Caribbean security landscape on the eve of the fast-approaching new century with a view to considering what the future portends in the security arena. Engaging in even guarded prospection during this period of history is particularly difficult, but also exciting, partly because of dramatic changes that the world began undergoing during the 1980s. These changes make scholars and statesmen approach the new century with a combined sense of expectancy and apprehension. The expectancy stems from the anticipated benefits of the end of the Cold War, among other things; the apprehension is driven by them may unknowns that tile dynamics of changing international relations hold for the future. This is true for the Caribbean as it is for other regions of the world, and it holds true for security as it does for other issue areas.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
19527. Defiant Again: Indigenous Poeples and Latin American Security
- Author:
- Donna Lee Van Cott
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The cycle of Indian rebellion and government repression that characterized the first centuries of contact between European and Amerindian peoples cannot yet be consigned to the history books. The eruption of an armed movement in southern Mexico, comprised primarily of destitute Maya Indians, as well as smaller demonstrations of resistance in Brazil, Ecuador, and elsewhere speaks eloquently to this fact. While the majority of conflicts between the estimated 40 million indigenous peoples in Latin America and the societies in which they live are now played out in the political arena, security issues continue to generate violent interethnic conflict. Since the Conquest, the interests of indigenous communities usually have conflicted with national governments' security policies. These include a dimension explicitly intended to control the autonomous tendencies of indigenous communities, suppress Indian political organizing, and erase the independent identity of Indian nations.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Central America
19528. Clausewitzian Friction and Future War
- Author:
- Barry D. Watts
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia
19529. The Major Powers in Northeast Asian Security
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Asia, and Northeast Asia
19530. Mobilizing U.S. Industry in World War II: Myth and Reality
- Author:
- Alan L. Gropman
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- At a dinner during the Teheran Conference in December 1943, Joseph Stalin praised United States manufacturing: I want to tell you from the Russian point of view, what the President and the United States have done to win the war. The most important things in this war are machines. The United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to 10,000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most. 3,000 airplanes a month .... The United States, therefore, is a country of machines. Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease, we would lose this war.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States and Vietnam