Content Type: Working Paper - CIAO Search Results

1. Global Energy Competition in the Arctic: A Reassessment

Author:: Sergey Vakulenko
Publication Date:: 07-2027
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Western powers may soon find it hard to escape an unpalatable dilemma: either they need to invest heavily in ice-class marine capability, both military and commercial, with unclear payback prospects, or they will have to cede leadership in the Arctic to the Sino-Russian tandem.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, Global Focus, and United States of America

2. The US's tougher stance on multilateral formats

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 03-2027
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The administration of US President Donald Trump will seek to exert greater influence over processes within the UN, whilst reducing its involvement in the activities of several international organisations (IOs) which it considers less important. The reduction in funding for various formats will increase pressure on Poland and like-minded states to increase their contributions towards their maintenance.
Topic:: International Organization, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Poland, North America, and United States of America

3. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:: Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:: 11-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

4. Les étudiants chinois en Europe et l’Etat-parti

Author:: Jérôme Doyon
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: Chinese Students in Europe and the Party-State -- Why do some Chinese students who choose to study abroad get involved in pro-regime organisations? How does this reflect the efforts of the People’s Republic of China to foster relationships of dependence and allegiance with its overseas nationals? Fieldwork conducted within branches of the Chinese Students and Scholars Association in France and the United Kingdom sheds light on the drivers of this form of long-distance authoritarian commitment. An analysis of how the association operates in two different European countries reveals how it adapts to the local environment while functioning as an enclave, isolated from host societies. The organisation’s primary objective is to maintain the Chinese partystate’s hold over its nationals outside national borders rather than influence or develop ties with foreign societies. However, students do not passively allow themselves to be co-opted, and the many pressures they experience can hinder efforts to mobilise them in support of the regime.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Political Science, and Students
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and France

5. MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0

Author:: Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to trade policy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy, carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs and Armington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competition frameworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables longterm simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energy representation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures, and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis.
Topic:: Environment, Trade Policy, Carbon Emissions, MIRAGE, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

6. The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America’s European partners. This article examines how the leading official proposals fell short. And it presents two, simpler proposals better aligned with battlefield realities. The article also explores the evolution of US, Ukrainian, Russian, and West European public opinion on the war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a disaster – not only for the two principal combatants, who together have suffered 300,000 deaths, but for the entire world. This fact drives the imperative to end this conflict forthwith via negotiated compromise. Yet, as the article shows, none of the official proposals embrace this imperative. Instead, all exhibit efforts to win advantage for one side or the other. They are instances of diplo-fare – war by means of diplomacy. As such, their aim may be rejection not agreement, with an eye toward painting one’s opponent as intransigent and, in this way, build support for continuing the fight – or, in the case of President Trump’s preference, establish a pretext for US withdrawal. The simplest proposals may be the most practicable but these must reflect current battlefield realities rather than attempting to “correct” or “re-balance” them. This principle guides the independent cease-fire options suggested in this article. Otherwise, the article explores the possibility that Europe’s so-called Coalition of the Willing will respond to any serious fracture of Kyiv’s effort – a distinct possibility – by establishing a new nuclearized Europe-vs-Russia “central front” inside Ukraine. (With an Appendix summarizing the official November and December peace proposal texts.)
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, European Union, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and NATO
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

7. Variables of War

Author:: Lutz Unterseher
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity. Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war’s outbreak. The formal causal argument: War’s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the “cult of the offensive”). Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further “sufficient condition” is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or “open flanks” in the opponent’s posture. This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Russia Leverages Venezuela to Expand Influence in Western Hemisphere

Author:: Sergey Sukhankin
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Moscow has condemned the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro while avoiding substantive retaliation, demonstrating both symbolic solidarity and an unwillingness to jeopardize relations with Washington. The Kremlin’s relationship with Venezuela enables Moscow to project power beyond Cuba in the Western Hemisphere, access Venezuela’s oil reserves, and cultivate an alliance aligned with an anti-Western agenda. Russian energy firms have gained oil stakes and repayment-in-kind options for investments in Venezuela, while joint financial ventures and Venezuela’s crypto experiments have served as testing grounds for sanctions-evasion mechanisms later adapted by Russia. Arms transfers, military-industrial collaboration, and media partnerships through RT, Sputnik, and TeleSur expanded Russia’s military footprint and narrative reach in the Western Hemisphere, though the financial return on Russian investments remains limited and challenged by U.S. pushback.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, and Power Projection
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

9. Russia–Azerbaijan Relations Remain in State of Limbo

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s decision to skip Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eurasian Economic Council meetings in December 2025 signaled renewed strain with Moscow, surprising observers who believed the October 2025 Dushanbe summit had stabilized relations after the December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) crash. Tensions resurfaced after Azerbaijan learned Russia had closed the crash’s criminal investigation, which contradicted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Dushanbe assurances of missile-related responsibility, legal accountability, and compensation, instead attributing the crash to weather and pilot error. Conflicting Russian narratives and public criticism in Azerbaijan highlight a widening gap between Moscow’s political statements and legal actions, leaving normalization stalled and Russia–Azerbaijan relations suspended in distrust rather than reconciliation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

10. Aftermath of Al-Fashir’s Fall to Rapid Support Forces

Author:: Andrew McGregor
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured al-Fashir in late October after an 18-month siege, consolidating RSF control over western Sudan and providing a potential capital for a new state. After entering al-Fashir, the RSF carried out mass looting, ethnic targeting, and killed 460 people at the al-Saudi maternity hospital in an attack that brought international outrage. Parallel RSF sieges in Kordofan indicate a strategy to divide Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is struggling to maintain control, but still currently favors a military solution over diplomatic negotiations.
Topic:: Security, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and al-Fashir

11. How IPLCs Can Leverage BRICS for Inclusive Environmental Governance

Author:: Metolo Foyet
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)face a pivotal chance to influence the emerging governance architecture of the BRICS+ alliance.Western-led frameworks (UNFCCC, CBD) recognize Indigenous rights but still struggle withimplementation. BRICS, representing over half the world’s population and major biodiversity,offers an alternative platform to advance plural knowledge systems and South–South solidarity. This brief proposes embedding Indigenous leadership within BRICS institutions, aligning newnorms with UNDRIP and ILO 169, and creating financial and knowledge instruments that sustaincommunity-led conservation. The goal is shared sovereignty in environmental decision-making,not token participation. The central question is whether BRICS can evolve from a geopolitical and financial bloc into a rights-based governance platform where IPLCs become co-architects ofglobal environmental policy, and whether multipolar governance can close implementation gapsby embedding Indigenous authority at the design stage.
Topic:: Environment, Governance, Indigenous, BRICS, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. AI and the Future of Work in Cameroon: Preparing theWorkforce for Emerging Opportunities

Author:: Larissa Ntoubia and Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents a transformative opportunity for Cameroon’s labor market andoverall economic development. With the launch of the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy(SNIA) in July 2025 , Cameroon aims to become a continental hub for AI innovation by 2040. Thestrategy includes ambitious sets ambitious targets : training 60,000 AI professionals (of whom40% will be women), creating 12,000 direct jobs AI jobs, and increasing AI’s contribution tonational GDP to around 0.8 – 1.2% by 2040 through applications in key sectors such asagriculture, health, education and justice. While these targets signal a strong political commitment, achieving them will require overcoming significant structural constraints that are common across the continent. Experience from otherAfrican countries shows that the successful implementation of national AI strategies depends onreliable digital and energy infrastructure, clear regulatory frameworks for data governance and privacy, and sufficient institutional capacity to manage complex multi-sector programme. Thefeasibility of the SNIA will therefore rest not only on its design but also on the government’s abilityto address these foundational prerequisites.
Topic:: Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Jobs
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

13. The Recognition of The Palestinian Statehood and itsImplication to International Diplomacy

Author:: Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The recognition of Palestinian statehood has re‑emerged as a pivotal issue in internationaldiplomacy, reshaping alliances and testing the limits of symbolic acts in global politics. While 147UN member states now recognize Palestine, this acknowledgment remains contested, particularlyby Israel and its closest allies. The debate underscores the tension between symbolism andsubstance: recognition strengthens legitimacy but does not automatically deliver stability or peace. For Africa, the Palestinian case resonates with unresolved sovereignty disputes such as WesternSahara and Somaliland. It highlights the importance of collective positions, effective mediation,and reforms in global governance systems. The African Union and subregional blocs havehistorically intervened in contested sovereignties, but their capacity remains constrained by limitedresources and weak enforcement mechanisms. This brief argues that recognition must be paired with tangible reforms, inclusive dialogue, andinstitutional strengthening. For African states, the lesson is clear: declarations alone areinsufficient. By leveraging recognition diplomatically, advocating for UN Security Council reform, and enhancing AU mediation frameworks, Africa can transform symbolic acts into meaningfulsteps toward peace, stability, and equitable global governance.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Equity, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

14. Building an Inclusive Future : Making Public and PrivateInvestment Work in CEMAC

Author:: Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Over the past two decades, CEMAC has invested heavily in public infrastructure, yet job-rich andinclusive growth remains limited. Private investment is shallow and concentrated in extractivesectors, while SMEs face chronic financing and regulatory constraints, leading to weakdiversification and high exposure to external shocks. This brief reframes the challenge as one ofpublic–private complementarity: how to redesign public spending, financial instruments, andgovernance so that each public franc attracts private capital, capabilities, and jobs. We propose asequenced reform package. Within 12 months, governments should publish a quarterly public-investment dashboard, launch a partial credit-guarantee window for SME lending, implement twotransparent PPP pilot projects, and introduce fast-track business licensing and permitting. Over12-36 months, project appraisal and ex-post evaluation should be institutionalized, PPPframeworks standardized, and commercial courts strengthened. Over 36-60 months, regionalinvestment rules should be harmonized, and financing diversified through regional and greeninstruments. Progress will be measured by on-time project delivery, SME credit growth, non-extractive private investment, and formal job creation.
Topic:: Inclusion, Public Investment, CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community), and Private Investment
Political Geography:: Africa

15. Harnessing Critical Minerals for Industrialization inSub‑Saharan Africa: Governance, Local Processing, andRegional Value Chains

Author:: Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) holds nearly 30% of global reserves of critical minerals essential for theenergy transition, including cobalt, lithium, manganese, and copper. However, the region capturesless than 10% of the projected US$16 trillion in global mineral value over the next 25 years, asmost resources are exported in raw form with minimal domestic processing. This model limits jobcreation, technological advancement, and fiscal resilience. Rising global competition for securemineral supply chains presents an opportunity for SSA to shift from resource dependence toindustrial transformation. This brief argues that mineral wealth can translate into sustainabledevelopment through three interrelated pillars: transparent governance, strategic investment inlocal processing capacity, and integration of mineral value chains under the AfCFTA. A policyroadmap is proposed to strengthen contract transparency, build energy and skills infrastructure, promote regional processing hubs, and harmonize continental standards. Timely action canconvert geological endowments into industrial capability, economic sovereignty, and inclusivegrowth.
Topic:: Governance, Industrialization, Value Chains, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

16. Health Insurance Coverage for Refugees in Cameroon:Feasibility and Perspectives for Inclusive Access

Author:: Iskandar Patrick Abadoma Mounpou, Solange Dabou, and Odette Kibu
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Cameroon hosts more than 430,000 refugees and asylum seekers, most of whom live in remoteregions with limited access to health services. Refugees face persistent barriers to care, includingfinancial constraints, unstable legal status, mobility, and a health system heavily reliant on out-of-pocket payments. These vulnerabilities heighten the risk of delayed care and catastrophic healthexpenditures. This brief examines the feasibility of creating a refugee-inclusive health insurance mechanism.Despite structural constraints, international experience shows that refugee coverage is achievablewhen financing, legal frameworks, and partnerships are well-designed. Three pathways are 1/6 particularly relevant for Cameroon: progressive integration into national schemes with subsidies,dedicated humanitarian insurance, and public-private partnerships (PPPs) to expand serviceavailability in underserved areas. Short-term priorities include establishing a legal basis for enrolment and piloting subsidizedschemes. In the long term, investments in district-level facilities and digital systems wouldstrengthen continuity of care and support national UHC goals.
Topic:: Refugees, Health Insurance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

17. Rights-Based Alternatives to Incarceration for Women Lessons from Colombia’s Public Utility Law and the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy

Author:: Claudia Cardona, Julie Hannah, Isabel Pereira-Arana, and Rebecca Schleifer
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: Women’s incarceration in Colombia is deeply linked to the disproportionate application of drug laws and to the gendered inequalities women face in poor and care demanding contexts. A novel law introduced in 2023 addresses these issues and allows certain women heads of household living in conditions of marginality to exchange prison for public service in freedom. Law 2292 - the Public Utility Law, is an expression of the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy, and of normative shifts in Colombia around criminal policy and drug control. This paper documents how Mujeres Libres, the Center for Law, Justice and Society (Dejusticia), and the International Centre for Human Rights and Drug Policy, based at the University of Essex, came together to use the Guidelines as a shared advocacy and technical framework to strengthen the implementation of Law 2292. Aimed at policymakers, judges, public defenders, and civil society in Latin America and beyond, this paper offers a practical account of our implementation efforts: how our partnership formed, how we engaged strategic actors and identified key pathways of change, what tools we produced, what results we are beginning to see, and what should happen next.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Inequality, Participation, Drug Policy, and Incarceration Alternatives
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

18. La inteligencia artificial en la Unión Europea

Author:: Cristina Puente, Celia Fernández Aller, Antoni Farriols Solá, Katherin Corredor, and Elisa Gutiérrez García
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La inteligencia artificial se ha consolidado como una tecnología de impacto sistémico, acelerada en los últimos años por la irrupción de la IA generativa y los grandes modelos de lenguaje, con efectos transversales en la economía, los servicios públicos y la vida social, y con profundas implicaciones éticas, laborales y geopolíticas. En este contexto de competencia estratégica entre Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea, el informe analiza la evolución tecnológica, los modelos fundacionales, las aplicaciones sectoriales y los riesgos asociados, subrayando la dependencia europea de infraestructuras y hardware externos, así como su posición de liderazgo normativo frente a un rezago en inversión, escalabilidad y talento. A partir de este diagnóstico, se examinan las iniciativas europeas emergentes, los desafíos de gobernanza global y las oportunidades para que la UE impulse un modelo de IA confiable, sostenible y centrado en las personas, que combine innovación, soberanía tecnológica, protección de derechos fundamentales y cooperación internacional en un entorno global cada vez más inestable.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Youth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

19. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar

Author:: Julio César Muñiz Pérez
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
Topic:: Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. Irán entre protestas y geopolítica

Author:: Xavier Villar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Análisis de las protestas en Irán surgidas en un contexto de fuerte inflación y depreciación del rial —que perdió cerca de la mitad de su valor frente al dólar en 2025— y que, tras iniciarse como una movilización de carácter económico encabezada por comerciantes y pequeños empresarios, derivaron rápidamente en expresiones de descontento político más amplio. Aunque las manifestaciones se han extendido a numerosas ciudades y han adquirido una notable visibilidad social, su escala y composición difieren de ciclos previos, como los de 2009 o 2019, y hasta ahora no se han producido deserciones significativas en las fuerzas de seguridad que permitan hablar de un cambio de régimen inminente. El artículo subraya además las dificultades para verificar cifras de víctimas debido al bloqueo informativo, matiza la idea de un rechazo político unánime al régimen y sitúa las protestas en un marco político-estratégico más amplio, marcado por la posición geográfica de Irán, sus recursos energéticos y la competencia internacional entre Estados Unidos y China.
Topic:: Regime Change, Sanctions, Economy, Protests, Inflation, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

21. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional

Author:: Vicent Climent-Ferrando
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
Topic:: Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Hacia la Ley de Chips 2.0

Author:: Emilio García García
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: En este documento elaborado por Emilio García García se aborda la revisión de la Ley de Chips de la UE, que tuvo su origen en la crisis de la cadena de suministros posterior a los confinamientos para contener la pandemia de la COVID-19. La Comisión Europea ha acelerado su proceso de revisión junto con la globalidad de la estrategia de semiconductores comunitaria. En un escenario de inestabilidad geopolítica, el ejecutivo de la UE ha señalado la industria de semiconductores como una de las claves de la soberanía tecnológica del Viejo Continente, motivando así la urgencia del proceso. La ya denominada Ley de Chips 2.0 debe tener en cuenta los éxitos y fracasos de la estrategia actual, así como los cambios geopolíticos y del entorno tecnológico y de mercado. Se presenta en el documento un resumen de estas circunstancias y recomendaciones para la próxima revisión de la norma. Si bien destacamos la importancia de la nueva Ley, la nueva política industrial y comercial europea para semiconductores debe trascender el marco de una directiva o reglamento, y la implementación de las recomendaciones de la sección final requiere cambios en otros instrumentos de la UE y nuevas herramientas.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Political Science, Public Policy, and CHIPS
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

23. The Case for Legal Reform in the IDF

Author:: Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The war has exposed a troubling pattern of legal encroachment on the battlefield, with the legal system shifting from a supporting role to a dominant force shaping security outcomes—at times at the expense of victory and at increased risk to soldiers. This paper proposes reforms to restore the balance between legal advice and security needs, remove self-imposed constraints, and return the IDF to a single clear objective: decisive victory
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Reform, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

24. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:: Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

25. As Erdogan Tightens His Grip on Syria, What Can Israel Do?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Following the agreement between the al-Sharaa regime and the Kurds, the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria presents strategic dilemmas for Israel
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

26. What Lies Beneath: Hybrid Threats to Taiwan’s Submarine Cables and the Contest in the Information Domain

Author:: Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Between 2023 and 2025, multiple disruptions affected Taiwan’s submarine cables, a critical yet vulnerable infrastructure essential to the island’s connectivity and security. Against the backdrop of China’s diplomatic, economic and military pressure targeting Taiwan, these disruptions are generally defined as “grey zone operations”. Yet, reframing them as hybrid threats allows for a better understanding of how specific threats to the infrastructure domain can spill over in the information domain. Disruptions to submarine cables may be exploited by threat actors to erode trust in domestic institutions and destabilise society. Uncertainty in the information domain emerging from these disruption presents opportunities for Taiwanese authorities to mobilise public support, international partners and resources to enhance infrastructure resilience. A strategic communications approach drawing on the experience of the EU can strengthen response through enhanced coordination among institutions, coherent messaging, constructive public engagement and improved awareness of information-domain contestation. An effective adoption of this approach may mitigate risks from threat actors while reinforcing the capacity of Taiwanese authorities to safeguard critical infrastructure and maintain societal trust.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Disinformation, Hybrid Threats, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

27. Deconstructing Kosovo's relations with Turkiye - Between Reality and Expectations

Author:: Asllan Zenunaj
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolution of relations between Kosovo and Türkiye from Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 to 2025, with a specific focus on the security dimension of this partnership. Its central aim is to analyse how Türkiye’s foreign policy tools and priorities toward Kosovo have evolved under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and how these changes are perceived domestically in Kosovo, particularly in light of Kosovo’s stated Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The analysis reveal change and continuities in Türkiye’s engagement, complementing an early emphasis on historical, religious and cultural narratives associated with “Neo-Ottomanism” to a more pragmatic “Erdoganism”, an interest-driven approach, particularly evident after 2022. The initial engagement under the AKP was heavily heavily influenced by Ahmet Davutoğlu's “Strategic Depth” doctrine, which emphasized soft power, shared heritage, and a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. This included religious diplomacy through institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), which promoted a shared Sunni-Hanafi Islamic identity and renovated Ottoman-era heritage sites. The paper argues this has complimented by a more assertive “Erdoganism”, which combines strategic depth with hard-power tools, particularly economic and defense cooperation, where Türkiye has become a crucial partner in modernizing the Kosovo Security Force through the provision of advanced military hardware and joint industrial projects. Additionally, Türkiye’s command of KFOR in 2023 and 2025 underscores its central position in regional security underlying the strong coordination between the bilateral agreements within the spirit of NATO’s formal structure and coordination with key allies like the United States. The paper also finds out that the Strategic partnership between Türkiye and Kosovo can be seen as exceeding its line between cooperation and interference in Kosovo’s domestic affairs, nevertheless these perceptions often derive from the misconceptions regarding the excessive use of Ankara’s soft-power tools. Henceforth, although Türkiye has sought to shape the country’s cultural narratives and public discourse, leveraging historical memory and kinship ties to project influence within local institutions and communities, there is a notable divergence between public perception and strategic reality. While an overwhelming 91% of Kosovars view Türkiye favorably, strategic allegiance remains firmly with the United States, indicating that popular support is emotive and pragmatic rather than an ideological endorsement of Türkiye’s political model. The paper recommends that Kosovo navigate this complex dynamic by supporting the transition from personalized “brotherhood diplomacy” toward a more structured, transparent, and institutionalized state‑to‑state partnership, one that avoids political interference on either side, remains embedded within NATO‑compatible frameworks, and is clearly communicated as complementary to Kosovo’s Euro‑Atlantic integration. Such an approach would allow Kosovo to maximize the benefits of its partnership with Türkiye while safeguarding its secular, independent, and democratic principles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

28. With imports of around €900 million in 2025, is Kosovo moving toward a potential dependency on China’s supply chain?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: KCSS publishes new paper on Kosovo’s rising imports from China and supply‑chain risks Prishtina, February 20, 2026: The Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) has published a new discussion paper in its Secure Futures Series examining whether Kosovo’s rapidly growing imports from China could be placing the country on a trajectory toward supply‑chain dependency, and what this might mean for Kosovo’s governance, resilience, and Euro‑Atlantic integration and alignment. Authored by Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, the paper notes that Kosovo imported approximately €920 million worth of goods from China in 2025, making China Kosovo’s third‑largest important partner after Germany, and Türkiye, despite Kosovo’s free trade agreement with Ankara, and no diplomatic relations with Beijing. The analysis highlights that Kosovo’s imports from China have expanded steadily and doubled over the past four years, with China now accounting for around 13 percent of Kosovo’s imports. “For KCSS, focusing on unwanted foreign influence in the Kosovo is about anticipating how economic exposure can translate into political leverage, and security and strategic vulnerabilities,” said Mentor Vrajolli, Executive Director of KCSS. “As Kosovo deepens trade ties with China, despite the absence of normal diplomatic relations, this trend deserves serious attention for its potential ramifications on Kosovo’s longer‑term positioning in relation to the United States and the European Union.” The paper situates Kosovo’s evolving trade pattern within the wider Western Balkans context, where several countries have already experienced politically contentious engagement with China through large‑scale infrastructure loans, procurement practices, and technology cooperation. It underscores that, unlike many of its neighbors, Kosovo has remained at political distance from Beijing, however, the paper argues that dependence can develop also quietly through market dynamics and supply chains. “The purpose is not to be alarmist,” said Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, author of the paper. “The concern is the direction of travel of our country, since imports from China have doubled since 2021, while Kosovo has almost no exports to China and no formal mechanisms for economic dispute‑resolution. In a system, such as China’s, where state and economy are not only closely intertwined, but in practice, one, economic cooperation is rarely politically neutral and especially when the country in question does not even recognise Kosovo and consistently supports Serbia’s position in international forums.” The paper points to relevant experiences, such as Lithuania’s trade disruption following tensions over Taiwan representation and South Korea’s economic exposure during the THAAD dispute, to illustrate how economic links can become instruments of pressure when political disagreements arise. The discussion paper also flags the broader normative dimension, arguing that Chinese engagement in the region has often operated in ways that can undercut rule‑of‑law standards, including through practices such as lex specialis in procurement in other Western Balkan contexts.
Topic:: Risk, Trade, Imports, Supply Chains, and Dependency
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

29. Political participation across generational cohorts in Uganda

Author:: Ssenkumba Muhammad and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Drawing on Bartels and Jackman’s (2014) generational model of political learning, which posits that political attitudes and behaviours are shaped by the historical contexts in which individuals come of age, this study examines whether generational cohorts differ in patterns of political participation in Uganda. We identify three cohorts corresponding to key phases of Uganda’s political history: Gen A, socialised during periods of political instability prior to the Museveni era; Gen B, shaped under the one-party regime; and Gen C, who came of age following the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 2005. Using Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) data from a nationally representative sample of adult Ugandans, we employ binary and ordinal logistic regression models to examine participation in both conventional and unconventional political activities. The results show that older cohorts are more likely to engage in conventional forms of participation, such as voting and contacting elected representatives, while younger cohorts exhibit greater participation in unconventional activities, particularly protests. To assess whether these patterns reflect cohort-specific political socialisation or age-related life-cycle effects, we replicate the analysis using comparable Afrobarometer data from Tanzania, a country with a distinct political history. The Tanzanian results reveal broadly similar generational patterns in conventional participation, suggesting that these differences may reflect age-related dynamics rather than cohort-specific socialisation alone. However, the specific unconventional repertoires through which generational differences manifest appear to be conditioned by each country’s political environment. These findings call into question strong cohort based interpretations of political participation and underscore the importance of distinguishing generational from life-cycle effects in studies of political behaviour in Africa.
Topic:: Democracy, Freedom, Political Participation, and Citizen Engagement
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and East Africa

30. Coethnics covote in Africa: Studying electoral cleavages with a covoting regression model

Author:: Carl Müller-Crepon and Nils-Christian Bormann
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Existing micro-level analyses often focus on electoral support for a subset of candidates or parties, while meso- and macro-level approaches infer individual motivations from aggregate outcomes. The risk of selection bias arises from the former approach, while omitted-variable bias may result from the latter. Our new covoting regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party/candidate while conditioning on other characteristics shared between them. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro foundations of widely used aggregate indicators, such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of party concentration and ethnic homogeneity. Our data consist of dyadic comparisons between respondents from Afrobarometer surveys. Pooling across 27 countries, coethnicity increases covoting intentions by 17 percentage points. The effect of coethnicity is driven by politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties. It is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. Beyond ethnicity, we address key issues in studying electoral consequences of socioeconomic cleavages and bridge gaps between levels of analysis.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:: Africa

31. Climate change and child abuse

Author:: Abreham Adera
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Climate shocks strain household resources, increase stress, and weaken protective structures, all of which may elevate the risk of child abuse. Yet little is known about how climate change affects children, particularly in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap by examining the relationship between drought exposure and attitudes toward child beating in sub-Saharan Africa. We combine individual-level data from the Afrobarometer survey with geocoded drought data from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset (GDIS). We use a spatiotemporal analysis that exploits differences in when and where the Afrobarometer surveys were conducted and when and where droughts occurred. We find that individuals living in drought-affected areas are more likely to justify physically disciplining children. These effects are persistent, potentially with no pattern of decay over time. Mediation analysis of causal pathways suggests that drought increases food insecurity, which raises the risk of intimate partner violence (IPV), and that IPV, in turn, significantly heightens the likelihood of child abuse. These findings highlight the broader social consequences of climate-related shocks and suggest that interventions targeting household stress and IPV norms may help mitigate the impact of drought on child welfare
Topic:: Climate Change, Intimate Partner Violence, Drought, and Child Abuse
Political Geography:: Africa

32. China's 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan: Continuing the Economic Model and Increasing Self-Reliance

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The latest five-year plan, adopted in March this year by the Chinese parliament, identifies industrial modernisation and the pursuit of technological independence as key to China’s economic development. It mentions increased consumption and improved social conditions, but these are not priorities. The development of modern industries is intended to increase the competitiveness of Chinese companies relative to entities from developed countries, including Poland. The direction outlined by the plan is another argument for strengthening the protection of the EU single market and supporting an active EU industrial policy.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Economic Development, Modernization, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

33. The EU and Australia strengthen trade and security partnership

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: On 24 March, during a visit to Australia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade agreement and the establishment of a Security and Defence Partnership. These agreements are intended to help both sides diversify their trade, reducing dependence on China, whilst increasing resilience to US political and economic pressure. It also presents an opportunity for Poland to intensify its cooperation with Australia.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Free Trade, Trade, and European Commission
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Poland, and Australia

34. International Echoes of El Salvador's Public Security Model

Author:: Barbara Midziak and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s success in improving domestic security results from implementing draconian measures (including mass arrests and a state of emergency that has lasted for four years) and from the dismantling of democratic mechanisms. While Honduras and Ecuador, for example, encountered limitations in copying that approach, the Salvadoran counter-crime model won strong endorsement from US President Donald Trump. This support, however, may foster a revival of authoritarian tendencies in Latin America, as his administration rewards authorities that cooperate closely with advancing US interests, regardless of whether or not they adhere to the rule of law.
Topic:: Crime, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Rule of Law, Donald Trump, Public Security, and Nayib Bukele
Political Geography:: Central America, El Salvador, Honduras, and Ecuador

35. Lee Jae-myung's Inter-Korean Policy

Author:: Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: South Korea’s attempts to improve relations with North Korea have been unsuccessful. Although this is mainly due to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) reluctance to resume contacts with the Republic of Korea (ROK), an additional problem has been caused by the inconsistent actions of President Lee Jae-myung’s administration, which has been in office since June last year. The administration’s goal of ‘peaceful coexistence’ effectively means accepting reunification as unlikely, a prospect that is losing support in South Korean society. To avoid an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea could seek to cooperate with countries that regularly engage with the DPRK, such as Poland.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Poland

36. Law and Politics of Israel and the United States’ Attacks on Iran with Maryam Jamshidi (Episode 54)

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Maryam Jamshidi
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Join host Professor Sahar Aziz (https://www.law.rutgers.edu/bio/sa1356) in her conversation with Professor Maryam Jamshidi (https://www.colorado.edu/law/node/125...) about the political and legal implications of Israel and the United States' unprovoked military attacks against Iran on February 28, 2026. As Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu publicly admitted, the Israeli government has been preparing for a war to topple the Iranian regime for over 30 years. (https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internation...) Knowing they do not possess sufficient military capacity to do it alone, Israel unsuccessfully attempted to persuade the United States to start a war of aggression against Iran under the Bush, Obama and Biden administrations. The reasons for restraint by past US administration were often the same. Iran posed no direct threat or conducted an imminent attack toward the US that legally justified an offensive war of aggression. The risk of a global economic downfall and the exorbitant price tag of a major war far outweighed the benefits of removing a hostile government. And perhaps most importantly from a military perspective, the United States had no exit strategy. Indeed, these were the same reasons that led to the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2008 after expensive and endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after 2001. Republican politicians campaigned on an America First platform in the 2021 elections by explicitly rejecting wars of choice in the Middle East that cost American lives and treasure. And yet, Republican President Donald Trump violated that promise to his constituents and granted Israel its 30-year dream to start an offensive war on Iran despite no credible evidence of an imminent threat by Iran. The result has been predictably catastrophic for the Middle East and the global economy. The war has engulfed the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the 20% of global supply of oil and natural gas, energy prices are skyrocketing across the world, Tehran is being bombarded daily by Israel, over 1300 Iranians have been killed thus far, and the war is costing American taxpayers $1 billion per day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Aggression, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

37. A Tight Spot: Challenges Facing the Russian Oil Sector Through 2035

Author:: Sergey Vakulenko
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have soared into triple digits, a state of affairs which will make life easier for Russia’s state finances and oil industry. The duration of this unexpected crisis is, of course, unknowable as of this writing, but the reversal of fortune has also brought to the fore several lingering questions about the outlook for the Russian oil sector that are all too often overlooked. Russian oil production grew steadily in the wake of the post-Soviet trough from 1996 until 2016, when it joined forces with other leading oil producing countries and created an arrangement that is now known as OPEC+. Production levels following the creation of OPEC+ have not followed a simple linear path, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other headwinds facing the global economy.1 Russia tracked its quota reasonably closely, except for 2022, when it had troubles placing its volumes in the market, while rearranging its export flows from Europe to Asia as a result of the European embargo imposed for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Notably, Russian production has been declining since late 2025, and the gap between quota and actual output has widened. This has happened against a backdrop of extremely low official prices for Russian crude, which had been approaching the lows of past crisis years: 2009 ($41.27/bbl in January), 2016 ($40.20 annual average), and 2020 ($40.17 annual average). Is the production decline linked to the fact that a significant proportion of Russian fields have become uneconomic at $40/bbl? In other words, has Russia’s upstream breakeven threshold been reached under economic conditions caused by the war in Ukraine, and if so, where exactly is this threshold? And what are the long-term prospects for Russian oil production under these circumstances? It is worth noting upfront that the production decline in December 2025 through January 2026 was almost certainly driven by exceptional circumstances rather than a deep systemic crisis. In all likelihood, the production dip was caused by the shutdown of Lukoil’s cluster of offshore fields in the Caspian Sea following Ukrainian drone strikes on three production platforms. Taken together, these three platforms accounted for more than 200,000 barrels per day: a figure that broadly matches the observed production shortfall. Nevertheless, the questions that this decline has prompted are worth exploring. In the near term, the abrupt rise of oil prices caused by the Iran war, some of which might persist after the end of hostilities, will bring a windfall both to the Russian oil companies and the state. Some of the windfall might translate into increased drilling expenditure and an associated production spike. But it would not change the long-term outlook and fundamentals of the Russian oil industry. The focus of this paper, therefore, is on the factors shaping the long-term trends, including: the oil revenue split between the Russian state and Russian oil companies; the cost of oil production in Russia, both operating costs and the cost of sustaining production levels; and the technical capabilities of Russia’s oil industry relative to its global peers. Both the current state and possible future trajectories of the Russian oil industry are path-dependent. Therefore, this paper will also examine the circumstances that shaped it. The central conclusion is that Russian oil production will soon begin to decline—slowly but steadily—and that this decline will be relatively insensitive to oil prices, which are likely to decrease as the world transitions to a low-carbon energy system. Russian output is remarkably resilient to significant price reductions; the country has the geological resources, technology, equipment, and expertise to sustain or even increase production. But the decline is driven by state policy, the investment climate, and OPEC+ constraints.
Topic:: Economics, Oil, Governance, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

38. Are Long-Term NATO–South Korea Defense Ties Possible? Transitioning From an Arms Exporter to a Trusted Defense Partner

Author:: Chung Min Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: This study focuses on how the Republic of Korea (ROK), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Europe are forging closer defense and security ties and whether such a partnership can be sustained into the future. South Korea has demonstrated that it is capable of exporting and investing in European and NATO security; according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea supplied 6.5 percent of arms imports to European NATO states (NATO-Europe) in 2024, a similar level to France.1 Conversely, Europe accounted for about 10 percent of South Korea’s arms imports in the period 2020–2024 while the United States dominated with 86 percent of all arms sales to South Korea.2 Based on SIPRI data, South Korea ranked tenth in global arms sales at the end of 2024.3 The main challenge for South Korea rests on rethinking its longer-term approach to strengthening defense ties with NATO along three main pathways: Ensuring greater interoperability with NATO weapons systems by deepening its alignment with the NATO Standardization Agreement through various measures such as the Mutual Recognition for Military Airworthiness (July 2024) agreement and becoming a member of NATO’s Science & Technology Organization (March 2025) and vice versa, so that European systems can be readily adapted into Korean weapons platforms; Encouraging Korean defense firms to operate in Europe with European governments, militaries, and corporate partners to localize production in Europe, similar to the strong foothold Korean defense firms have established in Poland since 2022; and Integrating, to the extent possible, with NATO’s intelligence architecture, including enhanced cybersecurity and cyber defenses; greater intelligence sharing over emerging battle management environments (particularly after the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end in the foreseeable future); and greater institutionalization of intelligence exchanges, including South Korean assessments of North Korea and China and NATO analyses of threats from Russia. South Korea aspires to become one of the top defense exporters by 2030. Based on its world-leading manufacturing capabilities in automobiles, shipbuilding, steel production, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and nuclear power plants, among other sectors, its ambitions are well within reach. South Korea supplies arms to three main regions—Europe, the Middle East (mainly Gulf states), and the Asia-Pacific. Key European and American defense companies have been leading providers of defense goods and services in the same regions since the end of World War II. Compared to their rivals, ROK defense firms offer definite advantages such as price competitiveness, rapid delivery schedules, and thorough maintenance, repairs, and overhauls (MROs) systems.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and South Korea

39. Beyond the Hype: Assessing Hyperscaler Nuclear Commitments Against U.S. Energy Realities

Author:: John Pendleton and Mackenzie Schuessler
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Electricity demand is rising rapidly, along with growing enthusiasm for nuclear power. In addition to climate concerns and the desire for secure energy, these needs are driven in large part by the planned expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The United States is home to the world’s largest data center market and the leading global cloud service providers, including Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft. These firms—or “hyperscalers”—design, build, and operate massive data center facilities that support skyrocketing AI demands, but require large amounts of firm, scalable, and always-available power. This puts new pressure on electricity grids already facing capacity, reliability, and affordability challenges. As technology companies pursue aggressive AI buildouts, they are seeking innovative ways to meet their energy demands. Nuclear power has thus entered the conversation as one of the few energy sources capable of delivering the kind of firm, high-density electricity that data centers need while simultaneously allowing companies to maintain public climate commitments.1 The entry of hyperscalers into a rapidly evolving nuclear energy market introduces new dynamics to what has been a highly regulated and slow-moving industry. Since 2024, a series of high-profile agreements have been announced between hyperscalers and nuclear utilities, vendors, and reactor designers. These deals signal enthusiasm for the sector, but it is still unclear whether big tech is willing to make big bets on nuclear power. This paper explores how large U.S. technology companies are approaching nuclear power in the context of their energy strategies to meet the escalating demands from AI. The first section describes the approaches hyperscalers are using to secure nuclear energy. To date, their efforts reflect their preference to be energy offtakers (customers) over direct nuclear ownership or project development. The second section then assesses why these approaches have remained cautious, considering factors such as priorities, timing, and costs. Additionally, it considers key entanglement risks that big tech will need to confront including potential reputational exposure, nonproliferation concerns, and management of long-term nuclear waste.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

40. AI and Democracy: Mapping the Intersections

Author:: Rachel George and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: AI poses substantial threats and opportunities for democracy in an important year ahead for global democracy. Despite the threats, AI technologies can also improve representative politics, citizen participation, and governance. AI influences democracy through multiple entry points, including elections, citizen deliberation, government services, and social cohesion, all of which are influenced by geopolitics and security. All of these domains, mapped in this paper, face threats related to influence, integrity, and bias, yet also present opportunities for targeted interventions. The current field of interventions at the intersection of AI and democracy is diverse, fragmented, and boutique. Not all AI interventions with the potential to influence democracy are framed as “democracy work,” demonstrating the imperative for democracy advocates to widen the rhetorical aperture and to continue to map, identify, and scale interventions. Diverse actors who are relevant to the connections between AI and democracy require tailored expertise and guardrails to maximize benefits and reduce harms. We present four prominent constellations of actors who operate at the AI–democracy intersection: policy-led, technology-enabled; politics-led, technology-enabled; civil society–led, technology-enabled; and technology-led, policy-deployed. Though each brings advantages, policy-led and technology-led interventions tend to have access to resources and innovation capacity in ways that enable more immediate and sizable impacts.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. This Warming Planet Should Learn How to Talk About Migration

Author:: Alejandro Martin Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The places where people can live—with or without dignity—are changing. Extreme heat, droughts, floods, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, among other climate impacts, are reducing the area of the human climate niche, that is, the part of the world most suited for human life. Regardless of how much societies reduce their carbon dioxide emissions today, the locked-in effects of climate change will continue to impact them for decades, if not centuries. In this context, the World Bank estimates that more than 200 million people globally could be forced to leave their homes by 2050. Governments all over the world must design and deliver effective policy responses to the risks associated with this large-scale movement of people. However, policymakers are limited in their options by the prevalence of misinformed narratives on migration (see box 1) that can make the sensible policy paths seem unattainable.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Mobility, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Getting Debt Sustainability Analysis Right: Eight Reforms for the Framework for Low-Income Countries

Author:: C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Assessing the sustainability of developing countries’ debt is an essential task of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, but it is also a controversial one. The two institutions are currently reviewing the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries (abbreviated as LIC-DSF). This paper provides a primer on the framework’s basic elements, an overview of critiques from a variety of perspectives, and analysis of selected issues, including the endogeneity of analysis of sustainability, analysis of debtors’ institutional strength, analysis of domestic political conditions, role and exercise of staff judgment, and collaboration between the World Bank and the IMF. The paper recommends eight improvements, including streamlining the institutional indicators, better separating economic analysis from political judgment, adopting certain procedures for applying judgment, and selectively introducing climate considerations.
Topic:: Debt, World Bank, Sustainability, IMF, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:: Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

44. The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction

Author:: Catherine Fieschi
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: France occupies a singular position in Europe when it comes to right-wing populist and far-right politics. The country is home to one of the oldest and most electorally successful far-right and populist traditions in Western Europe—from its pre–Second World War thinkers such as Charles Maurras and groups such as Action Française to the tax revolt movement of Pierre Poujade in the 1950s and now the political party known as the Rassemblement National (National Rally)—yet no right-wing populist or far-right party has captured the presidency since the Second World War. At the same time, in France of all European countries, such a takeover would have the most immediate and consequential foreign policy effects, given the extraordinary concentration of diplomatic and military authority vested in the French presidency itself. The case of the National Rally offers a useful window into the intersection of populism, foreign policy, and strong presidentialism. Specifically, it highlights the difficulties populist leaders encounter in building alliances, both globally and within Europe, and helps explain why populists may end up hedging on key foreign policy positions. The possibility of a Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella presidency, moreover, underscores a broader risk: that right-wing populism in middle powers could erode the very international order that has enabled middle powers to attain and sustain their influence. The differences between the National Rally’s two leaders—Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella—are also emblematic of a broader divide among right-wing populists in Europe: On the one side, there are those who aim to reshape Europe from within by steering EU institutions in a conservative-national direction. Hungary’s ousted Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni loosely embody this side, which in France is represented by Jordan Bardella. On the other side, there are those who reject the EU’s supranational constraints altogether. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, represents the latter, which in France is closer to Le Pen. What makes France distinctive is that this divide exists within a single party and between its two potential presidential candidates for 2027—with Le Pen retaining the loyalty of much of the party’s cadre, but with Bardella, despite internal resistance, also commanding broad electoral support.1 In France, the question of who will campaign for the presidency will therefore be critical.2 Le Pen—and her “brand”—remains the party’s strongest electoral asset and would likely have a better chance of winning a presidential election than Bardella. Yet her instincts remain more confrontational toward Europe and multilateral institutions. By contrast, while Bardella is more market-friendly and potentially less disruptive internationally, he remains—despite his popularity with voters—untested in the uniquely demanding environment of French presidential campaigning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe and France

45. Ecological Statecraft in the Midst of War: Water, Regeneration, and the Future of Gulf Security

Author:: Olivia Lazard and Ali Bin Shahid
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The 2026 U.S.-Iran war is radiating through the Gulf’s energy systems, maritime routes, supply chains, food corridors, financial flows, and regional diplomacy—and its effects will be long-lasting. In energy markets, the war is accelerating demand toward more autonomous sources like renewables. On food, the world is bracing for a compound crisis: a convergence of disrupted fertilizer supply chains, inflationary pressures, and El Niño–induced crop failures. These are cascading trends that will demand sustained attention for years to come. But one long-tail effect has already slipped out of view. The war has crossed a dangerous threshold: Infrastructure essential to civilian survival, including desalination facilities, has been directly targeted. Water infrastructure is emerging as a strategic target in kinetic warfare against a background of structural scarcity. This marks a qualitative shift in the Gulf’s security landscape. In a region defined by extreme aridity, collapsing groundwater reserves, and deep structural dependence on manufactured water, desalination infrastructure is not merely a technical utility; it is part of the region’s survival architecture. Millions depend on a relatively concentrated set of energy-intensive coastal plants for drinking water, industry, and urban continuity. The exposure of this infrastructure reveals that ecological fragility and military escalation are no longer parallel crises: They are becoming fused within a single battle space.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Ecology, Statecraft, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

46. How much does democracy cost in Lithuania? An analysis of the cost of a parliamentary mandate based on the example of Lithuanian political parties in the 2020 and 2024 parliamentary elections

Author:: Martinas Malużinas
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyze the sources, possibilities of obtaining, and the total amount of funds spent by political parties on election campaigns within the Lithuanian political system. This work is based on quantitative analysis, which enables the assessment of the income and expenses of individual political parties during the 2020 and 2024 parliamentary election campaigns. The methodology is based on a case study and systemic analysis, allowing for a detailed examination of the Lithuanian party system, in which the functioning political parties follow the cartel party model according to the concept of Katz and Mair (1995). The analysis of party income and campaign expenditures for the 2020-2024 parliamentary elections showed that Lithuanian political parties are dependent on various sources of funding: donations from individuals and legal entities, membership fees, and state budget funds. Moreover, the analysis showed that the expenditures of political parties and their candidates on the election campaign in 2020 (in euros) averaged approximately 430,095 EUR per party. The cost of obtaining one parliamentary seat for a political party in the 2020 elections (in euros) averaged 106,557 EUR per member of parliament. Lithuanian political parties rely on various sources of funding: donations from individuals and legal entities, membership fees, and funds from the state budget.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Financial Resources
Political Geography:: Europe and Lithuania

47. “Greening” the Maghreb or Exploiting It?

Author:: Yasmine Zarhloule
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The European Union-led green transition is turning the Maghreb—Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia—into an energy frontier, hosting megaprojects and wind, solar, and hydrogen corridors. Will going green, which presents an opportunity and a trap, generate development in the Maghreb or will it reproduce new forms of extraction? Building domestic capabilities that deliver tangible gains is crucial for stability and resilience under climate stress. Otherwise, energy exports may help Europe, but only deepen domestic burdens.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, European Union, Extractive Industries, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia

48. Leveraging Remittances for Economic Transformation inECCAS Countries

Author:: Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Remittances are increasingly becoming a strategic yet underutilized lever for economictransformation in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, remittance inflows reached a record USD 54 billion in 2023. Within ECCAS, theDemocratic Republic of Congo (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and Cameroon (about USD 375million) were the main recipients, while other member states received comparatively modestamounts. Although these flows do not collectively reach USD 5 billion at the regional level, theyalready surpass foreign direct investment or official development assistance in specific countriesand play a stabilizing role in household welfare. However, their developmental potential remainslargely untapped due to limited financial inclusion, high transfer costs, and the absence ofeffective institutional mechanisms to channel remittances toward productive investment and economic structural transformation. At the same time, ECCAS economies continue to grapple with persistent challenges : low industrialproductivity, weak competitiveness, fragile regulatory systems, insufficient infrastructure, and poorgovernance quality. These weaknesses are compounded by high levels of financial exclusion,limited access to affordable credit, and rising unemployment especially among young people andvulnerable populations. Combined, these constraints hinder progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 . In thiscontext, better mobilization and strategic use of remittances constitute a viable and largelyuntapped alternative to support economic transformation and resilience.
Topic:: Economic Transformation, Remittances, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:: Africa

49. Improving access to electricity for greater energy justice inEconomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)

Author:: Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: ECCAS’s growth is constrained by a deep electrification deficit that undermines energy justice,human development, and inclusive structural transformation. Despite its immense energypotential, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) remains one of the leastelectrified sub-regions in Africa. , access to electricity was estimated at just 56.7%, far below thesub-Saharan African average of 72%. This persistent energy deficit fuels domestic energyinsecurity, as millions of poor and vulnerable households still rely on traditional and polluting fuelsfor cooking and heating. The consequences are profound: weakened social services, health risks,reduced productivity, and slowed economic diversification. The impacts span multiple sectors. Inrural areas, health centers lack reliable power for vaccine refrigeration, emergency care, oressential equipment. Households using biomass-based fuels face heightened risks of respiratorydiseases, disproportionately affecting women and children. In education, limited lighting andinadequate digital infrastructure reduce study hours and widen the learning gap. More broadly, unreliable electricity remains a major constraint on industrialization, agro-processing, and private-sector development, weakening the region’s competitiveness and slowing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals .
Topic:: Development, Industrialization, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:: Africa

50. From International Fragmentation to Industrial Cohesion:The Missing Link in AfCFTA Implementation

Author:: Salim Ahmed Vessah, Stephane Atangana, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: As global geo-economic fragmentation accelerates, African economies face rising external shocksfrom supply chain reconfiguration, protectionism, and volatile capital flows. The AfricanContinental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a strategic pathway to build regional resilience,expand industrial capacity, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Yet, despite early trade growth,intra-African trade remains limited, constrained by persistent non-tariff barriers, regulatoryfragmentation, weak logistics infrastructure, and insufficient productive capacity. Without deeperdomestic and regional reforms, AfCFTA risks delivering trade diversion rather than sustainedindustrial transformation. This brief argues that Africa’s central challenge is not market accessalone, but the absence of industrial cohesion that enables firms to scale, integrate into regionalvalue chains, and compete globally. It proposes a reform agenda focused on accelerated NTBremoval, targeted industrial value-chain development, regulatory convergence, digital tradeintegration, and coordinated continental trade diplomacy. Translating AfCFTA from legal ambitioninto economic performance is essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-termcompetitiveness in a fragmenting global economy.
Topic:: Resilience, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS