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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Content Type Working Paper

1511. Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Short-term volatility in G3 bilateral exchange rates has been a fact of life since the beginning of the post-Bretton Woods float. It has been established, surprisingly, that this volatility is not only disproportionately large relative to the variation in relative macroeconomic fundamentals of Germany, Japan, and the United States, but is in fact largely unrelated to them. The apparent disconnect between fundamentals and dollar-yen and dollar-euro exchange rate fluctuations has led to perennial complaints about persistent exchange rate “misalignments,” and their real effects on the G3 (and other) economies, giving rise in turn to recurring proposals for government policies to limit this volatility. The idea that volatility reflects nothing more than the (perhaps rational, certainly profit-seeking) behavior of foreign exchange traders seems to give justification for a policy response. Yet, the disjunction between macroeconomic expectations and the volatility seems to indicate as well that some deviation from domestic monetary policy goals would be necessary to intervene against exchange rate swings.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Germany

1512. The New Asian Challenge

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The initial postwar challenge from East Asia was economic. Japan crashed back into global markets in the 1960s, became the largest surplus and creditor country in the 1980s, and was viewed by many as the world's dominant economy by 1990. The newly industrialized countries (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) followed suit on a smaller but still substantial scale shortly thereafter. China only re-entered world commerce in the 1980s but has now become the second largest economy (in purchasing power terms), the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment inflows, and the second largest holder of monetary reserves. Indonesia and most of Southeast Asia grew at 7 percent for two or more decades. The oil crises of the 1970s and the financial crises of the late 1990s injected temporary setbacks but East Asia has clearly become a third major pole of the world economy, along with North America and Western Europe.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, North America, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong

1513. Electronic Commerce in Developing Countries: Issues for Domestic Policy and WTO Negotiations

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Electronic commerce and its related activities over the internet can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic services, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of available technology. Since electronic commerce integrates the domestic and global markets from its very inception, negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will, even more than trade negotiations have in the past, demand self-inspection of key domestic policies, particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and distribution and delivery. Because these sectors are fundamental to the workings of a modern economy, liberalization here will rebound to greater economic well-being than comparable liberalization in more narrowly focussed sectors. Thus, the desire to be part of the e-commerce wave can be a powerful force to erode domestic vested interests that have slowed the liberalization of these sectors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

1514. International Economic Agreements and the Constitution

Author:
Richard M. Goodman and John M. Frost
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
International agreements, such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), generally aim to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among nations. The U.S. Supreme Court has developed a jurisprudence similarly aiming to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among the several states. That jurisprudence has developed from litigation challenging the constitutionality of state actions on the basis of the Commerce and Supremacy Clauses of the Constitution (art. I, § 8, cl. 3, and art. VI, cl. 2). In some subject areas, Commerce Clause decisions closely align with international agreements. In other areas, either or both fall short of achieving economic integration.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and North America

1515. Forward Presence and Peacetime "Shaping": Comparative Analysis of Great Power Experiences

Author:
Edward Rhodes, Jonathan DiCicco, Sarah Milburn, and Tom Walker
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Security and Democracy
Abstract:
The United States has a range of tools at its disposal with which to shape the international environment in ways favorable to U.S. interests and global security. Shaping activities enhance U.S. security by promoting regional security and preventing or reducing. . . [a] wide range of diverse threats.... These measures adapt and strengthen alliances and friendships, maintain U.S. influence in key regions and encourage adherence to international norms.... The U.S. military plays an essential role in...shaping the international environment in ways that protect and promote U.S. interests. Through overseas presence and peacetim e engagement activities such as defense cooperation, security assistance, and training and exercises with allies and friends, our armed forces help to deter aggression and coercion, promote regional stability, prevent and reduce conflicts and threats, and serve as role models for militaries in emerging democracies. . . .
Topic:
Security, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

1516. Reevaluating the "Catalytic" Effect of IMF Programs

Author:
Martin S. Edwards
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Security and Democracy
Abstract:
While it is generally thought that Fund programs serve as a 'good housekeeping seal of approval' the empirical evidence suggests that Fund programs do not attract added inflows of so-called 'catalytic' finance. The existing work on this subject, however, suffers from two important limitations. These works assume that all programs are successfully completed, and they fail to address the effects of self-selection into IMF programs. Given these shortcomings, it is not surprising that the findings on catalytic finance have heretofore been unimpressive.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance

1517. El TLCAN y la Inversióon Extranjera Directa: El Nuevo Escenario

Author:
Arturo Borja
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper looks at the changes that have taken place in North America in foreign direct investment (FDI) after NAFTA. The first part analyses the regime defined in the treaty. The main four principles of this regime are: "national treatment", the prohibition of performance requirements for investors, a more liberal norm for foreign ownership of firms, institutional procedures for the solution of disputes. The rule of origin is identified as the most important measure for non-North American investors. The second part offers an empirical evaluation of changes in FDI flows during the first five years of NAFTA. It compares that period with the five years previous to the implementation of the agreement. The findings show a significant increase in FDI going to Mexico, Canada and the United States. At the same time, there have been changes in the distribution of these flows within the region. More FDI is going now to the United States than to Mexico, and investments between Canada and the U.S. are growing at a higher rate than those between Mexico and the U.S. The paper also identifies different patterns between Mexico and Canada. The increases in Canadian investments suggests that Canadian multinationals are adapting their strategies to the new conditions created by NAFTA.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

1518. International Explanations for Stock Market Opening

Author:
Susan Minushkin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Most studies on financial market liberalization focus on wealthy countries, emphasizing international, economic or domestic political factors as explanations for financial liberalization or have specified the conditions under which one factor dominates in causal significance. They have not tested whether their arguments are applicable to the middle-income countries that comprise the 'emerging markets.' Focusing on these countries, this paper seeks to isolate and test a series of propositions derived from international approaches. The main contribution of this article is to provide some first-cut testing of the existing hypotheses, as a guide for other researchers in terms of the timing, pace and style of financial opening in middle-income countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

1519. Big Business and the Wealth of South Africa: Policy Issues in the Transition from Apartheid

Author:
Andrea E. Goldstein
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract:
The large-scale corporation is at the core of the process of introducing new technologies, developing new organizational and managerial methods, and commercializing new products and services – in plain English, of creating the wealth of nations (Chandler et al. 1997). The manner and extent to which corporations will promote a country's economic and social development depends largely on how well the institutions of the market, on the one hand, and of government, on the other, work together in that country. Modern history suggests that such firms emerged and evolved differently in various economic, political, and social settings. Many thought that trade opening, capital market liberalization, and the convergence in consumers tastes and economic ideologies would lead to a convergence in the forms of organizing, managing, and financing business activity. Nonetheless, even in OECD countries, globalization has not brought about the expected convergence of institutions towards a unique model of interrelations between business, governments, markets, and the society at large. This outcome strengthens the hand of those arguing that purely economic, technological, or legal explanations fail to explain the contours of big business and their behaviours. This is almost a truism in all countries, but it appears particularly challenging in analyzing changes in emerging countries undergoing a series of deep economic, political, and social transformations.
Topic:
Human Rights and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and South Africa

1520. Basic Principles of Sustainable Development

Author:
Jonathan Harris
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Great ideas are usually simple ideas. While the specific analysis of any important topic will necessarily involve complexity and subtlety, the fundamental concepts which underlie powerful paradigms of thought are usually relatively straightforward and easy to grasp. In the area of social science, ideas which affect millions of people and guide the policies of nations must be accessible to all, not just to an elite. Only thus can they permeate institutions from the local to the global level, and become a part of the human landscape, part of the fabric within which we define our lives.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy