Content Type: Working Paper / Topic: International Affairs

1. Greece, Cyprus, and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: For decades, the US operated as the central mediator between Israel and the Palestinians. However, after decades of stalled negotiations, it is likely that future peacemaking efforts will be multilateral, reliant on an orchestra of international actors who can support specific processes that, in concert, could encourage Israelis and Palestinians to reapproach one another. This piece examines the role of Greece and Cyprus, two regional actors whose strategic relationship with Israel has strengthened over the last decade, could help advance peace. Though secondary players in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there are concrete ways that both states – if invited by the central parties – could contribute to a more conducive environment for cooperation and dialogue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Affairs, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Cyprus

2. Battleground Southeast Asia: China's Rise and America's Options

Author:: Charles Dunst
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Southeast Asia, while still a reservoir of goodwill for the US, has in recent years come increasingly under China's umbrella. In this Strategic Update, Charles Dunst analyzes China's expansion there, discusses Southeast Asians' American predeliction, and offers steps the US can take to "win back" the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, International Affairs, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

3. Dealing with China: Lessons Learned from Three Case Studies

Author:: Christopher W. Bishop
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The idea for this paper began after several conversations with Canadian friends and colleagues about the cases of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. On December 10, 2018, Chinese officials detained the two Canadian citizens for “endangering state security”, 10 days after Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer, on an extradition warrant from the United States, where she was wanted for bank fraud. Despite Chinese statements denying any connection between the two Michaels and Meng, some Canadians have argued the only way to gain their release is for Canada to release Meng – a classic “prisoner exchange”. Others, however, have argued just as forcefully that trading Meng for the two Canadians would only give legitimacy to China’s “hostage diplomacy”. One friend asked me if China had ever done anything like this before. How had those cases been resolved, and what would China do this time? Those were good questions. As a U.S. Foreign Service officer who has spent much of my career working on China – including at the U.S. embassy in Beijing from 2015-2018, where I analyzed the Communist Party leadership and China’s state security apparatus – I had some insight into Chinese foreign policy. I also had a personal connection to one of the cases. I knew Michael Kovrig – he had been one of my counterparts at the Canadian embassy in Beijing – and I had great respect for his work as a diplomat, and later as a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group. Moreover, because I was now on leave from the U.S. Department of State to serve as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow in Canada, I had time to look for some answers. And so I began trying to identify and analyze similar cases from the recent past. This paper is the result. It represents my own views, and although the Department of State has allowed me to publish it in my personal capacity, it does not necessarily reflect the views of the Department or the U.S. government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4. Guiding Principles for Israel’s Foreign Policy toward the EU

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Ties with the EU are a strategic asset for the State of Israel. Europe is Israel’s largest trading partner, a source of political and defense support (despite disagreements), an anchor of shared norms and values, a partner in cultural creation, and a central collaborator in research and development. The importance of these ties obliges Israel to invest attention and resources in preserving and even deepening and expanding them. Done right, Israel could leverage the tremendous potential of its ties with Europe for the improved wellbeing of its citizens and for its international standing. However, in recent years, the Israeli government has been leading a negative campaign against the EU. It has been criticizing the EU for being anti-Israel, while making efforts to increase divisions between EU Member States in order to limit the EU’s capacity to play a role in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Toward the formation of a new Israeli government in late 2019, this article presents ten guiding principles for an improved Israeli foreign policy toward the EU, based on the work of a Mitvim Institute task team.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, International Affairs, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and European Union

5. Public Opinion Findings on Israel’s Foreign Policy towards the Elections

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Towards the Israeli general elections of September 2019, the Mitvim Institute conducted a public opinion poll that examined who Israelis would like to see as their foreign minister, how they perceive the status of Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and how they assess the outgoing government’s performance on key foreign policy issues. The poll was carried out in August 2019 by the Rafi Smith Institute and in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, among a representative sample of Israel’s adult population (700 men and women, Jews and Arabs) and with a margin of error of 3.5%.
Topic:: Government, International Affairs, Public Opinion, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

6. The Quality of Israel’s Peace with Jordan is Dependent on the Israeli-Palestinian Issue

Author:: Lior Lehrs
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The question of the affinity between the Israeli-Palestinian track and the Israeli-Arab track is a contentious issue in Israeli public discourse. Prime Minister Netanyahu repeatedly claims that the Palestinian issue can be bypassed on the road to normalization with the Arab world, even without progress on that front. However, the history of Israeli-Jordanian relations attests to the strong and intrinsic link between these two arenas. The breakthrough that led to the 1994 peace treaty with Jordan was enabled by progress in negotiations with the Palestinians, and every crisis since in the Palestinian arena is reflected in relations with Jordan. All attempts to warm relations with Jordan and increase cooperation on civil issues (beyond the intelligence and military cooperation) require a parallel move vis-à-vis the Palestinians.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

7. Late to the Party: Russia’s Return to Africa

Author:: Paul Stronski
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: After a decades-long absence, Russia is once again appearing on the African continent. The Kremlin’s return to Africa, which has generated considerable media, governmental, and civil society attention, draws on a variety of tools and capabilities. Worrying patterns of stepped-up Russian activity are stirring concerns that a new wave of great-power competition in Africa is now upon us. U.S. policymakers frequently stress the need to counter Russian malign influence on the continent. On a visit to Angola in early 2019, Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan said that “Russia often utilizes coercive, corrupt, and covert means to attempt to influence sovereign states, including their security and economic partnerships.”1 Advocates for a more forceful Western policy response point to high-visibility Russian military and security cooperation in the Central African Republic and the wide-ranging travels of Russian political consultants and disinformation specialists as confirmation that Russia, like China, represents a major challenge in Africa. Yet is that really the case? Are Russian inroads and capabilities meaningful or somewhat negligible? Hard information is difficult to come by, but any honest accounting of Russian successes will invariably point to a mere handful of client states with limited strategic significance that are isolated from the West and garner little attention from the international community. It remains unclear whether Russia’s investments in Africa over the past decade are paying off in terms of creating a real power base in Africa, let alone putting it on a footing that will expand its influence in the years to come. Nevertheless, Russia increasingly looks to Africa as a region where it can project power and influence. President Vladimir Putin will welcome leaders from across the continent to Sochi in late October for the first Africa-Russia summit, a clear indication of the symbolic importance that Africa holds for the Kremlin right now.2 It is clear that Russian inroads there would be far more limited but for the power vacuums created by a lack of Western policy focus on Africa in recent years. That state of affairs gives Russia (and other outside powers) an opportunity to curry favor with the continent’s elites and populations. More than anything else, it is opportunism that propels Russia’s relatively low-cost and low-risk strategies to try to enhance its clout and unnerve the West in Africa, just as in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.
Topic:: International Affairs, Power Politics, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, North America, and United States of America

8. International Coordination of Economic Policies in the Global Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and Consequences

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper evaluates international efforts to diagnose the global financial crisis and decide on appropriate responses, the treatments that were agreed and adopted, and the successes and failures as the crisis unfolded. International coordination of economic policies eventually contributed importantly to containing the crisis, but the authorities failed to agree on a diagnosis and the consequent need for joint action until the case was obvious. The policy actions that were adopted were powerful and effective, but they may have undermined prospects for coordinated responses to future crises.
Topic:: International Affairs, Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. South Koreans see Improved Security, Confident in US Security Guarantee

Author:: Dina Smeltz
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Over the past 12 months, there have been more discussions between South Korean, US, and North Korean officials about Pyongyang’s potential denuclearization than at any time since the Six-Party Talks in 2006 and 2007. Exactly where those discussions are headed is unclear. But in South Korea, the public generally sees an improvement in the South Korean security situation according to a just-completed Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey. As a result, support for South Korea developing its own nuclear weapon appears to have waned, though a slight majority remains in favor. Despite what seems to be a slight sense of relief, the South Korean public is skeptical that either Moon or Trump can convince Kim Jong Un to fully denuclearize
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. Dealing with the Offshore Economy

Author:: Alan Riley
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Given that offshore tax havens are largely located in small, independent states or self-governing territories, it could be assumed that they have little connection to OECD states and major financial centers such as London and New York. This is not the case. The so-called tax havens are in fact part of a much larger network of financial and corporate services that depends on lawyers, accountants, and bankers located in major Western cities. Only one part of the havens’ business actually involves providing lower tax rates to individual foreign account holders
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. Protests Challenge Gulf Counterrevolution

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Much of the Middle East’s recent turmoil stems from internecine Middle Eastern rivalries spilling onto third country battlefields and Saudi and UAE-led efforts to roll back the achievements of the 2011 popular Arab revolts and pre-empt further uprisings. The recent successful toppling of ailing Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and months of anti-government demonstrations that have put Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir on the defensive suggest that the Saudi-UAE effort may be faltering.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

12. The False “Nakba” Narrative

Author:: Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The term “Nakba,” originally coined to describe the magnitude of the self-inflicted Palestinian and Arab defeat in the 1948 war, has become in recent decades a synonym for Palestinian victimhood, with failed aggressors transformed into hapless victims and vice versa. Israel should do its utmost to uproot this false image by exposing its patently false historical basis
Topic:: Corruption, Post Colonialism, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Palestine

13. Belarus Could Be Russia’s Next Big Geopolitical Target

Author:: Emil Avdaliani
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia’s geopolitical projection has shifted over the past two decades. The country has tried to reverse its losses in Ukraine and the South Caucasus, but it is in Belarus that Moscow will most likely try to further extend its leverage to keep the EU and NATO at bay.
Topic:: International Affairs and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Israel

14. A New EastMed Friendship, with US Support

Author:: George N Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The prospective EastMed pipeline would be the flagship project of the Cypriot-Greek-Israeli collaboration, a developing friendship that enjoys deep foundations. The US has now made its support for that partnership official.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

15. Democracy: The Keystone of our Society

Author:: You Young Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Hearing my grandfather state, "I'm forever grateful to Kim Il-sung," baffled me. His words of gratitude to the first supreme leader and the eternal president of North Korea did not match his heartbreaking tale of defecting to the South during the Korean War. Recalling his stories of hiding in the mountains and his relatives trapped in the isolated dictatorial communist state, I couldn't fathom being grateful for a man who pushed my grandfather to make such a difficult choice when he was only a few years older than I am now.
Topic:: International Affairs and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16. UNCLOS 1982, The Mediterranean area and EU’s Southern Rim

Author:: ELIAMEP
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, December. 10, 1982, (“UNCLOS”) lays down a comprehensive regime of law and order in the world’s oceans and seas establishing rules governing all uses of the oceans and their resources
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. Daesh: The archetype of hybrid terrorist organizations

Author:: Triandafyllos KARATRANTOS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The rise and evolution of Daesh (al-Dawlah al-Islamīyah fī l-ʻIrāq wa-sh-Shām) marked a new and very interesting debate about the labeling of violent groups that are not traditional terrorist organizations and they are also acting with different roles and using alternate tactics and modus operandi, such as insurgency, within civil and regional conflicts. Furthermore, the establishment of the so called “Caliphate” includes a new parameter in the scientific debate, the quasi state dimension. Daesh is a modern archetype of this vivid scientific debate, but the difficulties in labeling, especially in cases were terrorist groups are taking part in civil conflicts, is not new. Labeling is not only a matter of “name and blame”, is important in order to design an effective and holistic counter terrorism strategy. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the different approaches about labeling nontraditional terrorist groups and to present the terrorist activity of Daesh.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

18. Working Paper: The Multi-Domain Battle as an emerging Operational philosophy in the 21st century. A review of the role of Commander. The Cross-Domain standpoint

Author:: Nikolaos PAOUNIS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: War is a socio-historic phenomenon, that is constantly developing and changes form rapidly, due to the immense development of military technology (accomplishments in industrial defense), which goes along with military inventiveness. In parallel, a need arises to shift the rules of war conduct (e.g. law in military conflicts), that is to say attempts have been made to normalize situations, which from the outset were unregulated. Man is a subject of war, who possesses consistent physical and intellectual features, is integrated in a relatively steady geographical and social environment and therefore some common characteristics are observed in the perception of war.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. Working Paper: The ‘Two and a half wars’ theory and the Mavi Vatan naval exercise: Strategic Culture and the new phase of Turkish strategy

Author:: ELIAMEP
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Every time that Turkey acts in new ways abroad, various terms re-emerge in public discourse such as Pax Ottomana, Pax Turkana, Neo-Ottomanism, Pan-Turkism, Pan-Islamism and, recently, the notion of a “Blue Homeland”. But what is the heart of the matter? As many have already noted, the “Blue Homeland” doctrine is not new in Turkish strategic thought. In the midst of the Turkish naval drills, many remembered the Turkish doctrine of two and a half wars and associated it with the drills. This paper, by Zenonas Tziarras, looks at the reasons why this perception is somewhat simplistic as the Turkish approach has gone way beyond the narrow doctrine of two and a half wars and expanded towards other directions.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. Working Paper on the Chinese Investments in Gwadar and Piraeus

Author:: George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Working Paper by Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos, Director of EU-China Programs at the Center International de Formation Européenne (CIFE), Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), Fellow and Lecturer at the Democritus University of Thrace, on the importance of the Chinese investments in Gwadar and Piraeus. Rolling out the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) China is largely investing in foreign countries’ ports that can function as transshipment hubs. Trade is boosted and new economic corridors are being opened. In that regard, the ports of Gwadar in Pakistan and Piraeus in Greece offer relatively similar opportunities for Chinese state-owned enterprises. A comparison of Chinese investments in the two ports demonstrate that similarities do exist indeed. However, differences are also evident and are principally linked to the dissimilar scope and scale of the investments in Gwadar and Piraeus, the national context of Pakistan and Greece respectively as well as the different type of their relations to China. On the whole, the Belt and Road Initiative can arguably foster closer economic collaboration between Islamabad and Athens and subsequently between Islamabad and Brussels in trade and foreign direct investments in a period during which Brussels has already launched the EU-Asia connectivity strategy and seeks to obtain tangible results.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Working paper on the impact of the monetary policy of the ECB on credit provision of European economies through the mortgage credit channel

Author:: Vangelis ARVANITIS
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The monetary authority, which in the case of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is the European Central Bank (ECB), has among other things, the obligation to determine the monetary policy, aiming to influence basic parameters of the economy like the level of prices. In this paper the author tries to identify the impact of the monetary policy of the ECB on credit provision of European economies through the mortgage credit channel, including during the period of the crisis. More specifically, we employ data for the loans of commercial banks to households for housing purposes after a contractionary monetary policy by the monetary authority (increase of the main interest rate). Given that the mortgage channel has not been adequately studied during the crisis period for EU member states, this paper will contribute towards covering this gap in the literature.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Frontex & NATO: A New Partnership in the Making

Author:: Antonia-Maria SARANTAKI
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: A new working paper by ELIAMEP explores the operational cooperation between Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard agency, and NATO. Since 2016, these two disparate actors have started to cooperate in the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea after NATO’s involvement in countering irregular migration. The working paper, based on data collected through semi-structured interviews with Frontex and NATO staff as well as document review and analysis, seeks to analyse the cooperation of these two institutions by assessing their mandate, the reasons for their establishment, their operations and their organisational enhancements. It focuses on their role in addressing a non-traditional security challenge, namely irregular migration, which provided the basis for joining efforts and initiating their operational cooperation. The latter raises serious concerns about the future of both institutions and the adopted EU strategy to cope with the issue of migration. All these define a new EU-NATO security partnership that has the potential to reshape the content of the transatlantic cooperation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Working Paper on Information Centric War and Cyber-security

Author:: Nikolaos PAOUNIS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Following the thematic publications on the evolution of the war, after the so-called “Revolution in Military Affairs”, a new policy paper published by ELIAMEP analyses the Information Centric War and Cyber-security. Cyberattack is a new form of warfare, while its development is parallel to that of technological progress and its subsequent sociopolitical effects on humankind. Furthermore, cyberattacks raise once again issues of Ethics and whether provisions of international law should be applied. Estonia is the first victim of a massive cyberattacks, while, even though Turkey considers the issue at hand important, it makes use of the abovementioned form of warfare.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. ELIAMEP’s policy paper on military service and defence

Author:: Thanos Dokos
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: ELIAMEP published a new policy paper by defence analyst Manos Iliadis and Director General of ELIAMEP Dr. Thanos Dokos on “Military Service and Defence”.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Una estrategia de Seguridad Pública para proteger a la ciudadanía

Author:: COMEXI
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:: El Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales, COMEXI, es una Asociación Civil sin fines de lucro dedicada al estudio, análisis y diálogo sobre las relaciones internacionales. Su objetivo es generar propuestas que contribuyan a la toma de decisiones y que incidan—de manera estratégica— en la definición e implementación de las políticas públicas que afectan a México. También busca contribuir efectivamente en el posicionamiento e impacto de México en el mundo. La riqueza de COMEXI radica en el talento de su membresía, la cual está integrada por más de 600 asociados expertos en diferentes sectores y disciplinas (académicos, empresarios, funcionarios públicos, diplomáticos y líderes de opinión). También contamos con la participación de embajadas, organismos internacionales, y centros de investigación dedicados al estudio de la vida política, social, y económica del país
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. España en la Segunda Guerra Mundial

Author:: Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: España en la Segunda Guerra Mundial
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. Rusia en la Sociedad Internacional

Author:: Javier Morales
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Rusia en la Sociedad Internacional
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. El camino hacia el Este

Author:: UNIDAD
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El camino hacia el Este
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

29. How Human Subjects Research Rules Mislead You and Your University, and What to Do About it 1

Author:: Gary King and Melissa Sands
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Universities require faculty and students planning research involving human subjects to pass formal certification tests and then submit research plans for prior approval. Those who diligently take the tests may better understand certain important legal requirements but, at the same time, are often misled into thinking they can apply these rules to their own work which, in fact, they are not permitted to do. They will also be missing many other legal requirements not mentioned in their training but which govern their behaviors. Finally, the training leaves them likely to completely misunderstand the essentially political situation they find themselves in. The resulting risks to their universities, collaborators, and careers may be catastrophic, in addition to contributing to the more common ordinary frustrations of researchers with the system. To avoid these problems, faculty and students conducting research about and for the public need to understand that they are public figures, to whom different rules apply, ones that political scientists have long studied. University administrators (and faculty in their part-time roles as administrators) need to reorient their perspectives as well. University research compliance bureaucracies have grown, in well-meaning but sometimes unproductive ways that are not required by federal laws or guidelines. We offer advice to faculty and students for how to deal with the system as it exists now, and suggestions for changes in university research compliance bureaucracies, that should benefit faculty, students, staff, university budgets, and our research subjects.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance?

Author:: Michel Duclos
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—notably including Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)—were instrumental in convincing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria and save Bashar al-Assad’s skin in September 2015
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Iran

31. From trade diplomacy to economic warfare: the international economic policy of the Trump Administration

Author:: Richard Higgott
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: This paper is an analysis of the discursive practices of the international economic policy of the Administration of President Donald Trump, writ large. Within this conceptual context it offers an empirical case study of the US-China relationship across the spectrum, from tariff conflict through to the growing struggle for control of the 21st century high-technology industries. The argument is that the Trump Administration utilises the discursive practices of what some scholars call ‘securitisation’ (Buzan et al., 1998) through to what might more appropriately be described as a discourse of ‘economic warfare’. The paper is in four parts. Part 1 provides a brief discussion of the changing historical and international context of the study. Part 2 provides a conceptual discussion of the discursive practices of securitisation, economic statecraft and economic warfare on the one hand and the theory of international trade captured in the idea of the rise and fall of mercantilism and its re-emergence in the international economic agenda of the Trump Administration on the other. Part 3 looks at these concepts as they pertain to current US international economic policy. Part 4 concentrates on US policy towards China particularly. The paper concludes with some reflections on the success or otherwise of contemporary US policy
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. The bundle of sticks: a stronger European defence to face global challenges

Author:: Pedro Serrano de Haro
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: After an overview of external challenges, this paper will describe some of the main initiatives developed by the EU in the field of security and defence during the last three years and how this has led to a stronger engagement with key international partners. It will conclude with some reflections regarding the value of the EU as a platform for cooperation to face global challenges and on strategic autonomy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

33. The 1981 coup d’état and trial in Spain: possible lessons for Turkey

Author:: Charles Powell
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: This paper briefly analyses the attempted coup d’état carried out in Spain in February 1981 and the trial that was held in its aftermath, with a view to extracting possible lessons that might prove useful to those currently engaged in post-coup justice in Turkey.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Legislating for a low carbon and climate resilient transition: learning from international experiences

Author:: Alina Averchenkova
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: The objective of this working paper is to inform policy experts, legislators and decisionmakers on the recent trends in climate change policy-making around the world and to draw lessons learnt from the experiences with designing and implementing climate change legislation. The study in particular aims to contribute to the current debate in Spain on a draft climate change and energy transition law, as well as aid other countries currently working on climate legislation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. Poland in Europe: disappointment or merely hiccup?

Author:: Piotr Maciej Kaczyński
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: What is Poland’s position in the EU in the context of the political and economic developments under the Law and Justice government? Since 2015 the one-party government in Poland has engaged in a policy of a radical change. A set of various reforms have been implemented, some of them highly controversial, such as the reform process in the judiciary. The judicial reforms –or ‘take over’– put the Warsaw government on a collision course with the EU institutions over the rule of law. This paper analyses three aspects of the Polish-EU relationship: (1) the state of the rule of law; (2) the economic challenges; and (3) the political position of Poland among EU member states
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. Creating a digital roadmap for a circular economy

Author:: Johan Bjerkem
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The climate crisis, environmental disasters, a lack of competitiveness, falling behind in the digital race… The EU faces multiple challenges that it will need to address if it is to ensure long-term sustainable prosperity for European citizens. At the same time, there are two ongoing transitions – the creation of a circular economy and the digital transformation – that could provide the means to address these challenges, if they are managed well. As the EU and national policymakers are making significant efforts to promote a circular economy on the one hand and a digital economy on the other, Annika Hedberg and Stefan Šipka, together with Johan Bjerkem, argue that it is time to align the agendas as a means to achieve greater sustainability and competitiveness. This publication:
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. EPIM Policy Update July 2019

Author:: Katharina Bamberg
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: This edition’s special focus examines the results of the European Parliament Elections and what they mean for the reform process of the Common European Asylum System. Other key highlights of this Policy Update include an analysis of the ongoing criminalisation of Search and Rescue activities in the Mediterranean, the situation at the eastern border of the EU, developments on the Visa Code and Returns Directive, and a closer look from the European Summit of Refugees and Migrants
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Paris-proofing the next Multiannual Financial Framework

Author:: Marco Guili
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: A carbon-neutral future, as envisioned by the European Commission in its recent communication A Clean Planet for All, will require unprecedented changes to the EU’s economy and society. The Multiannual Financial Framework for the 2021-2027 cycle, which is currently under negotiation, has an important role to play: overall, the EU budget supports regional development and research in areas that are critical to achieving climate goals, including transport, energy and agriculture. In this Discussion Paper, Marco Giuli draws lessons from the current EU budget cycle and investigates how it has hampered, and even undermined climate efforts, including continued support for practices that contribute to global warming. He also takes a closer look at the European Commission’s 2018 MFF proposal and concludes that, although several innovations concerning climate spending were introduced, there’s still a considerable risk that the new MFF will turn into a missed opportunity.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. The EU's Scottish question

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: One of the unintended consequences of the Brexit vote almost three years ago has been the re-opening of the question of the UK’s territorial integrity. Most of the focus has, naturally, been on Northern Ireland, given the historical context and the challenge a hard border would constitute for the peace protest. Less attention has been paid to the situation in Scotland, even though it voted strongly against leaving the EU: 62% of Scottish voters voted remain, while only 38% voted to leave - a higher remain vote than in Northern Ireland. If anything, this sentiment has become stronger, with polls suggesting that two-thirds of Scottish voters now support remaining in the EU.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. Citizens expect: Lessons from the European Citizens' Consultations

Author:: Paul Butcher
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Citizens’ Consultations (ECCs) were supposed to bring citizens into the decision-making process and inform the European Council’s discussions about the future of the EU at the recent Sibiu Summit. In practice, any outcome from the ECCs has been largely absent, and it is unclear if they have been taken on board at all. This is despite the events providing a wealth of information on European citizens’ priorities, proposals, and demands. Paul Butcher and Corina Stratulat identify the main lesson of the 2018 ECCs – that without any clear definition of their objectives, it is impossible to adequately assess or respond to them. The authors go on to argue that any future repeat of the process must clearly define the scope and purpose of the exercise in advance. As the EU enters a new politico-institutional cycle, the immediate priority is to ensure that the ECCs and other forms of citizens’ involvement in decision-making appear prominently on the agenda of the new Commission and subsequent European Council summits.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. Ensuring a post-Brexit level playing field

Author:: David Baldock
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Council’s guidelines for the Brexit negotiations, published one month after it received the Article 50 notification from the United Kingdom, state that “any free trade agreement […] must ensure a level playing field, notably in terms of competition and state aid, and in this regard encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, tax, social, environmental and regulatory measures and practices
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. The EU’s governance of Brexit and its impact on the negotiations

Author:: Johannas Greubel
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The three years after the Brexit referendum were marked by intense preparations for the UK’s departure, including withdrawal negotiations that eventually led to the conclusion of a Withdrawal Agreement and a political declaration, and the European Council agreeing to extend the withdrawal period until 31 October 2019 at the latest. Yet, even after the UK’s departure from the EU, negotiations between the EU and the UK are far from over. Indeed, it is only after the UK's withdrawal that negotiations on the future relations will begin. It is pertinent to examine how the EU governed the negotiation process internally, in order to draw conclusions for the future. Johannes Greubel argues that throughout the negotiations, the EU managed to set up an inter-institutional governance system that not only ensured unity but also the full support of all institutions for the negotiations' outcome, and strengthened the Union’s negotiation position. This governance constitutes a complex system of interaction that can be described as a model file of inter-institutional and -member state cooperation and diplomacy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Mainstreaming innovation funding in the EU budget

Author:: Eulalia Rubio
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: This study for the European Parliament provides a comprehensive assessment of how the EU budget supports innovation in the current programming period and analyses the approach to innovation financing in the Commission´s MFF 2021-2027 proposals. The findings provide the basis on which to draw recommendations to maximize the use of EU innovation funding in the coming MFF. In particular, the study
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Brexit: Losing control

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Andrew Duff argues that neither the EU nor the UK is now fully in control. Both are being badly destabilised by Brexit. An accidental no deal is a live possibility. Unless the British have made real progress towards the exit by the time of the next EUCO in June, attitudes will harden — including those of Angela Merkel. Talks between pro-European Tory ministers and the Labour frontbench have a 30% chance of success. If they fail, both leaders are expected to commit to more indicative votes in the Commons, this time rather more ‘meaningful’. Mr Corbyn may want to delay his agreement until after the UK has been obliged by the EUCO to fight a mock election to the European Parliament. But the June EUCO is the next important deadline if British MEPs are to be stopped from taking their seats.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Under Pressure: Russian Energy Cooperation with Japan and South Korea since Western Sanctions

Author:: Maria Shagina
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This report will examine Russian-Japanese and Russian-South Korean energy cooperation. Neither Japan nor the Republic of Korea imposed energy sanctions on the Russian Federation, and both U.S. allies continue to expand their energy deals despite Western sanctions
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. Russia in Venezuela: Geopolitical Boon or Economic Misadventure?

Author:: Max Hess
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In December 2018, the Russian Federation sent two Tupolov-160 supersonic bombers around the world to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. On January 23, 2019, the U.S. and a series of Latin American countries recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. China’s Black Sea Ambitions

Author:: Yevgen Sautin
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China is actively engaging Black Sea littoral states through various initiatives to open new markets for Chinese goods, facilitate the acquisition of valuable or strategic local industries, and offer loans for large development projects
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. The Sources of Post-Soviet Conduct

Author:: William Spiegelberger
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Russian Federation’s recently provocative foreign policy results in part from structural weakness in the Russian domestic regime, a quasi-feudal system that requires certain actions abroad to maintain itself in power at home.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. Fracturing Communities :Aid Distribution in a Palestinian Camp

Author:: Perla Issa
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: This article examines the practices of humanitarian aid distribution from the perspective of aid recipients rather than providers through an immersion in the daily home life of Palestinian residents of Nahr al-Barid refugee camp (north Lebanon) in 2011. It argues that in the name of distributing aid fairly, humanitarian aid providers put in place a pervasive system of surveillance to monitor, evaluate, and compare residents’ misery levels by relying on locally recruited aid workers. This regime of visibility was designed to be one directional; NGOs never disclosed how much aid they had available, nor when or how it would be distributed. The inclusion of local aid workers in this opaque framework turned a process that relied on community and neighborhood ties into an impersonal machine that fostered doubt and suspicion and ultimately hindered the community’s ability to engage in collective political action.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, International Security, International Affairs, and Occupation
Political Geography:: Palestine

50. Beneficial Ownership: The Global State of Play

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Beneficial owners are defined as those who are the natural persons who ultimately own/control a customer and/or the natural persons on whose behalf a transaction is being conducted. It also includes those persons who exercise ultimate control over a legal person or arrangement. The availability of this information is a key requirement of international tax transparency and the fight against financial crime.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

51. A deteriorating security environment in Europe

Author:: Thomas Wilkins
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The October 2018 Warsaw Security Forum (WSF) gathered government, military, and think tank personnel from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and beyond (including a delegation from Japan) in one of Europe’s most prominent Track 1.5 dialogues to focus upon the deteriorating regional and global security environment. Just as the emphasis of their Asian counterparts has been on revisionist challenges to the regional security order in the Indo-Pacific, the WSF focused upon the aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation (Russia) toward its neighbours in CEE and its so-called “near abroad”. As the host country celebrating 100 years of independence, Poland, along with its CEE counterparts in NATO/EU, are countries that are acutely aware of the dangers presented by Russian actions and know that, as history has taught them, their sovereignty cannot be taken for granted. A disintegration of the liberal world order, international law, and the Transatlantic relationship, would leave small, and even medium-sized, states at the potential mercy of more powerful and aggressive neighbours
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. A Comparative Study of the Kashmir Conflict Coverage in Pakistani and Indian Press

Author:: Ayesha Saddiqa and Farish Ullah Yousafzai
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The paper compares the coverage of J&K conflict in the Pakistani and Indian English press. The objective of the study is to figure out the differences in the coverage of Kashmir conflict by the Indian and Pakistani press along with determining the prominence of war or peace frames in the coverage. Content Analysis was carried out of the news stories published on the international and national pages of English daily The Nation and Dawn from Pakistani press and English daily The Hindu and Times of India from the Indian press. The results revealed that war framing was recorded as the most dominant coverage pattern with respect to Kashmir conflict. War frames were more dominant in the Indian press coverage as compared to the Pakistani press and the differences in the coverage of the press of the two countries are significant.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. The US War on Terror in Afghanistan and its Impact on FATA in Pakistan

Author:: Fazal Wahid
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The US counterattack on Afghanistan in October 2001 changed in the overall security structure of the region. The Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters escaped the US bombing of the Tora Bora in Afghanistan and crossed into the FATA region of Pakistan. Pakistan’s military operations against these militants in the FATA provided a boost to the latter’s cause and almost the entire FATA experienced a sort of Talibanization. The US war in Afghanistan had its spillover effect in FATA. Terrorist activities unleashed in the entire Pakistan and turmoil in Afghanistan added fuel to this situation. FATA’s special constitutional status hwas addeding to the woes of Pakistan and subsequently FATA was merged with the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This paper analyzes the impact of the US war in Afghanistan on the FATA region of Pakistan.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. Bureaucratic Efficiency as Determinant of Trade Openness in SAARC Countries

Author:: Rabia Saghir
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The study explores how bureaucratic efficiency aeffects international trade in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Sri Llanka. A composite indicator of government effectiveness is used to measure bureaucratic efficiency and the model is estimated by using the SYS-GMM. It is well recognized that bureaucratic efficiency is vital to the enhancement of trade, whereas the result shows that a negative relationship exists between bureaucratic efficiency and trade openness. Similarly, encouraging links exists between government size and international trade as the government provides different services to enhance the trade inat the international market
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55. A Comparative and Narrative Analysis: Executive Leader as Team Builder at the University Level

Author:: Uzma Syeda Gilani
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This study aims to compare and narrate the difference in the role of team building, through self-assessed inventory by VC (Executive Leader), observation sheet filled in by co-workers as well as the narrated view of executive leaders regarding team-building of the newly established University of the region. A concurrent triangulation mixed-method design was followed. Vice-Chancellors of all Public universities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan constitute the population of the study. According to the design, the same sampling technique was used. Four ViceChancellors of newly established Universities and five observers among their co-workers of each VC were taken as respondents of the study. There were significant differences among the self-assessed views of VCs regarding team building and views of their coworkers and narrative views of executive leaders at newly established universities. For team leadership, egalitarian style, knowledge of emotional intelligence and target-oriented communication are recommended.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series

Author:: Maciej Kotowski
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the formation of production and trading networks in an economy with general interdependencies and complex property rights. The right to exclude,a core tenet of property, grants asset owners a form of monopoly power that influences granular economic interactions. Equilibrium networks reflect the distribution of these ownership claims. Inefficient production networks may endure in equilibrium as firms multi-source to mitigate hold-up risk. Short supply chains also reduce this risk, but may preclude the production of complex goods. A generalized Top Trading Cycles algorithm, applicable to a production economy, identifies equilibrium outcomes in the model. Such outcomes can be decentralized via a price system.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and National & provincial initiatives
Political Geography:: America

57. Corporate Purpose in Play: The Role of ESG Investing

Author:: John Gerard Ruggie
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: On August 19, 2019, the U.S. Business Roundtable (BR), comprising the CEOs of more than 200 of America’s largest corporations, issued a new mission statement on “the purpose of a corporation” (BR, 2019a). The press release noted that each periodic update on principles of corporate governance since 1997 had endorsed the principle of maximizing shareholder value. In contrast, the new statement commits signatory CEOs “to lead their companies for the benefit of all stakeholders – customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders” (BR, 2019b). “[Milton] Friedman must be turning in his grave,” a Fortune magazine article declared (Murray, 2019)
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. Bound to Happen: Explanation Bias in Historical Analysis

Author:: Richard Zeckhauser
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper argues that historical analysis, necessarily written with hindsight, often underestimates the uncertainties of the past. We call this tendency explanation bias. This bias leads individuals – including professional historians – to imply greater certainty in causal analyses than the evidence justifies. Their analyses will treat what is plausible to be probable. We offer a few intuitions about why explanation bias exists, its relation to other well-established psychological biases, what it leads to, and how it might be combatted. Appreciating the depth of uncertainty and ignorance in our world is critical for accurately understanding, interpreting, and drawing from the past to illuminate the present and the near future
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

59. Targeted Debt Relief and the Origins of Financial Distress: Experimental Evidence from Distressed Credit Card Borrowers

Author:: Will Dobbie
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We study the drivers of financial distress using a large-scale field experiment that offered randomly selected borrowers a combination of (i) immediate payment reductions to target short- run liquidity constraints and (ii) delayed interest write-downs to target long-run debt constraints. We identify the separate e?ects of the payment reductions and interest write-downs using both the experiment and cross-sectional variation in treatment intensity. We find that the interest write-downs significantly improved both financial and labor market outcomes, despite not taking effect for three to five years. In sharp contrast, there were no positive e?ects of the more immediate payment reductions. These results run counter to the widespread view that financial distress is largely the result of short-run constraints.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration

Author:: Will Dobbie
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen crime and significant decreases in educational attainment and adult employment. The effects are concentrated among children from the most disadvantaged families, where criminal convictions increase by 10 percentage points, high school graduation decreases by 25 percentage points, and employment at age 25 decreases by 29 percentage points. In contrast, there are no detectable effects among children from more advantaged families. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior, even in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Affairs, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

61. Measuring Bias in Consumer Lending

Author:: Will Dobbie
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper tests for bias in consumer lending using administrative data from a high-cost lender in the United Kingdom. We motivate our analysis using a new principal-agent model of bias, which predicts that profits should be higher for the most illiquid loan applicants at the margin if loan examiners are biased. We identify the profitability of marginal applicants using the quasi-random assignment of loan examiners. Consistent with our model, we find significant bias against immigrant and older applicants when using the firm’s preferred measure of long-run profits, but not when using the short-run measure used to evaluate examiner performance. Keywords: Discrimination, Consumer Credit
Topic:: Debt, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

62. Using Behavioral Insights to Improve Truancy Notifications

Author:: Todd Rogers
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Many states mandate districts or schools notify parents when students have missed multiple unexcused days of school. We report a randomized experiment (N = 131,312) evaluating the impact of sending parents truancy notifications modified to target behavioral barriers that can hinder effective parental engagement. Modified truancy notifications that used simplified language, emphasized parental efficacy, and highlighted the negative incremental effects of missing school reduced absences by 0.07 days compared to the standard, legalistic, and punitively-worded notification—an estimated 40% improvement. This work illustrates how behavioral insights and randomized experiments can be used to improve administrative communications in education.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

63. China’s new policy on the European Union: A toughening line on political issues

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China’s recent policy paper on the European Union shows that the country continues to recognize the EU as an important partner in many fields. A new, distressing element is that China has toughened its demands towards the EU to respect its core interests and to refrain from meddling in its internal affairs.
Topic:: Globalization, International Affairs, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

64. Strategic autonomy for European choices: The key to Europe's shaping power

Author:: Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Multi-level competition is on the rise in the international system and the standoff between the US and China risks becoming a defining feature of international affairs. However, the future is not predestined: the European Union (EU) will play a major role in the development of the international order, whether through its absence or its engagement. This Discussion Paper follows recent European Policy Centre publications and debates dedicated to revamping Europe’s approach to an increasingly challenging international context, which have delivered recommendations to: equip Europe with the tools to govern interdependence and mitigate confrontation; take a strong stance in defence of Europe while not endorsing a zero-sum interpretation of global affairs; turn the EU into a global shaping power by pursuing a ‘rules-first’ strategy; and frame Europe’s strategic autonomy in comprehensive terms, including the economic, technological and security and defence dimensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Affairs, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

65. Trends in Israel’s Regional Foreign Policies: July-December 2018

Author:: Roee Kibrik and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This document briefly outlines major trends in Israel’s regional foreign policies over the past six months. It is based on the Mitvim Institute’s monthly reports that cover ongoing developments in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process/conflict, Israel’s relations with the Middle East, Europe and the Mediterranean, and the conduct of Israel’s Foreign Service.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Jerusalem, Gaza, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus, and European Union

66. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

67. From Deng to Xi: Economic Reform, the Silk Road, and the Return of the Middle Kingdom

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This LSE IDEAS Special Report - with senior contributors from politics, journalism, and academia - looks at the internal causes and consequences of the return of the 'Middle Kingdom'. It explores the extent to which Deng's momentous economic reforms in 1978 have shaped modern China, what the country's expanded international role under Xi means, and who really makes Chinese foreign policy.
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

68. The Role of Local Governance in Sustaining Peace

Author:: Alain Tschudin and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: While the importance of good governance to sustaining peace is widely recognized, the focus tends to be on national governance. This overlooks the crucial role of local governance actors, particularly when the central government is fragmented or lacks broad legitimacy. These actors include not only formal institutions like municipal governments but also a mix of other actors that could range from traditional chieftaincies to community-based organizations to religious institutions.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

69. Givat Hamatos: A Strategic Jerusalem Neighborhood

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: A plan to build a Jewish residential neighborhood in Givat Hamatos (Airplane Hill) in southern Jerusalem was approved in 2014, but has been frozen for four years due to pressure from the U.S. and EU countries. The area is adjacent to a main traffic artery of west Jerusalem.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

70. Trump’s Speech Recognizing Jerusalem: What It Says and What It Doesn’t Say

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital puts into deep-freeze plans for a division of the city.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Jerusalem

71. Fresh thinking for old problems: comparing conflicts to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace

Author:: Dahlia Scheindlin
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Fresh thinking for old problems: comparing conflicts to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

72. Israel's Policy toward the Far-Right Party in Austria, Summary of a Knesset Meeting.

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Israel's Policy toward the Far-Right Party in Austria, Summary of a Knesset Meeting.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

73. The Collapse of Israel's Foreign Service, Summary of a Knesset Conference

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Collapse of Israel's Foreign Service, Summary of a Knesset Conference, February 2018
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

74. The Crisis in Israel-Jordan Relations, Summary of a Knesset Conference

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Crisis in Israel-Jordan Relations, Summary of a Knesset Conference, January 2018
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

75. Voting Patterns in UN Institutions Regarding Israel, 2009-2017, Dr. Roee Kibrik & Dr. Nimrod Goren

Author:: Nimrod Goren and Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Voting Patterns in UN Institutions Regarding Israel, 2009-2017, Dr. Roee Kibrik & Dr. Nimrod Goren
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

76. Opportunities for Israel's Foreign Relations towards 2018, Mitvim's Annual Conference, Panel Summary

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The 2017 annual conference of the Mitvim Institute was held on 1 November 2017 in Jerusalem, in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. As part of the conference, a public panel was held on opportunities for Israel’s foreign relations towards 2018. It featured Helit Barel, Prof. Elie Podeh, Dr. Thabet Abu Rass, and Eran Etzion who spoke about issues related to the Iran nuclear deal, Israel-US relations, Israel in the Middle East, the involvement of Israel’s Arab citizens in foreign affairs, Israeli-European relations, and the status of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA).
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

77. European regional organizations and climate-related security risks: EU, OSCE and NATO

Author:: Niklas Bremberg
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Research suggests that states and societies around the world are increasingly confronted by climate-related security risks. These risks are unavoidably transnational in character, and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) are instrumental in developing policy solutions and enhancing international cooperation. However, previous research highlights that knowledge about the conditions under which IGOs address climate security risks, and when they do so effectively, is incomplete. There is a need for further in-depth analysis of relevant IGOs in the field of climate security.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

78. Multilateral peace operations and the challenges of organized crime

Author:: Jaïr van der Lijn
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Multilateral peace operations are increasingly confronting a set of interrelated and mutually reinforcing security challenges that are relatively new to them, that do not respect borders, and that have causes and effects which cut right across the international security, peacebuilding and development agendas. As a result, the New Geopolitics of Peace Operations III: Non‑Traditional Security Challenges initiative seeks to enhance understanding about peace operations and non-traditional security challenges such as terrorism and violent extremism, irregular migration, piracy, organized crime and environmental degradation. As a part of this initiative, this SIPRI Background Paper explores the ‘non-traditional’ security challenges that organized crime presents to multilateral peace operations.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. Deputy Secretary of State Sullivan: U.S. to Lead on Humanitarian Issues

Author:: USIP
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The United States remains committed to its role as a global leader on humanitarian issues and will continue seeking to avert crises that spawn the need for humanitarian aid, Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan said.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

80. What Makes Experts Reliable?

Author:: Kyle L Marquardt
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Many datasets use experts to code latent quantities of interest. However, scholars have not explored either the factors affecting expert reliability or the degree to which these factors influence estimates of latent concepts. Here we systematically analyze potential correlates of expert reliability using six randomly selected variables from a cross-national panel dataset, V-Dem v8. The V-Dem project includes a diverse group of over 3,000 experts and uses an IRT model to incorporate variation in both expert reliability and scale perception into its data aggregation process. In the process, the IRT model produces an estimate of expert reliability, which affects the relative contribution of an expert to the model. We examine a variety of factors that could correlate with reliability, and find little evidence of theoretically-untenable bias due to expert characteristics. On the other hand, there is evidence that attentive and condent experts who have a basic contextual knowledge of the concept of democracy are more reliable.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

81. How to Make Causal Inferences with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data under Selection on Observables

Author:: Matthew Blackwell and Adam Glynn
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Repeated measurements of the same countries, people, or groups over time are vital to many fields of political science. These measurements, sometimes called time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data, allow researchers to estimate a broad set of causal quantities, including contemporaneous and lagged treatment effects. Unfortunately, popular methods for TSCS data can only produce valid inferences for lagged effects under very strong assumptions. In this paper, we use potential outcomes to define causal quantities of interest in this settings and clarify how standard models like the autoregressive distributed lag model can produce biased estimates of these quantities due to post-treatment conditioning. We then describe two estimation strategies that avoid these post-treatment biases—inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models—and show via simulations that they can outperform standard approaches in small sample settings. We illustrate these methods in a study of how welfare spending affects terrorism.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

82. Self-Censorship in Authoritarian States: Response bias in measures of popular support in China

Author:: Daniel Robinson and Marcus Tannenberg
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: The study of popular support for authoritarian regimes, and the comparative study of political attitudes, has long relied on the assumption that survey respondents provide truthful answers on surveys. However, when measuring regime support in closed political systems there is a distinct risk that individuals are less than forthright due to fear that their opinions may be made known to the public or the authorities. In order to test this assumption, we conducted a novel web-based survey in China in which we included four list experiments of commonly used items in the comparative literature on regime support. We find systematic bias for all four measures as a result of selfcensorship; substantially more individuals state that they support the regime with direct questioning than do when presented with our anonymous, indirect list experiments. The level of self-censorship, which ranges from 16 to 22 percentage points, is considerably higher than previously thought. Selfcensorship is further most prevalent among the wealthy, urban, female and younger respondents. These findings indicate that prior studies that have found high levels of support for the Chinese regime using these particular measures likely overestimate the true level of support. Further, crossnational studies which compare popular support across regime type may be systematically biased if responses are not subject to the same level of falsification across regime types.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

83. Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset: Political Institutions in the Long 19th Century

Author:: Carl Henrik Knutsen
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: The Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset (Historical V-Dem) is a new dataset containing about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally – including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies – from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators are also included in the Varieties of Democracy dataset, which covers the period from 1900 to the present – and together these two datasets cover the bulk of “modern history”. Historical V-Dem also includes several new indicators, covering features that are pertinent for 19thcentury polities. We describe the data, the process of coding, and the different strategies employed in Historical V-Dem to cope with issues of reliability and validity and ensure inter-temporal- and cross-country comparability. To illustrate the potential uses of the dataset we provide a descriptive account of patterns of democratization in the “long 19th century.” Finally, we perform an empirical investigation of how inter-state war relates to subsequent democratization.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

84. Reassessing the Democratic Peace: A Novel Test Based on the Varieties of Democracy Data

Author:: Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, and Jan Teorell
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: The democratic peace is one of the most robust findings in international relations. Yet it suffers from two important limitations. First, even those who fully embrace the democratic peace have difficulty precisely identifying which facet of democracy drives the result. Second, the vast majority of studies have relied on a single measure of democracy – the Polity index. This paper reassesses interstate conflict on several new measures of democracy and their disaggregated components from the Varieties of Democracy project in a global sample of 173 countries from 1900–2010 (www.v-dem.net). We theorize three distinct mechanisms of constraint that may explain why some countries do not engage in military conflict with each other: formal vertical (e.g. elections), informal vertical (e.g. civil society activism), and horizontal accountability (e.g. interbranch constraint on the executive). We find that the formal vertical channels of accountability provided by elections are not as crucial as horizontal constraint and the informal vertical accountability provided by a strong civil society.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. On Revolutions

Author:: Armand M Leroi et al
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as "revolutions" and, though they have identied many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of the multivariate rate of change called Foote Novelty. We dene revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure, F, can, by a non-parametric test, be shown to be signicantly greater than the background rate. Our method also identies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. Importantly, our method permits searching for revolutions over any time scale that the data permit. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions, both well known and not. Our method is a general one that can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

86. The North American Arctic: Energizing Regional Collaboration and Governance

Author:: John Higginbotham and Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The opening of the Arctic Ocean and the forces of globalization it will unleash pose both pressing challenges and exciting opportunities for the largest and most autonomous of the Arctic regions, the North American Arctic (NAA) — Greenland, Nunavut, the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Alaska. However, a broad pan-Arctic cooperation is not always the best approach to address these issues; neither are international interests always well aligned with the priorities of Northerners.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: North America

87. UNRWA’s Educational System and Impact

Author:: John Mark Shorack
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The United States government under President Trump recently announced the withdrawal of monetary aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, commonly referred to as UNRWA. This is a major blow to UNRWA’s finances considering the United States’ yearly contribution’s amounted to one-third of their budget. Since UNRWA’s founding it has been a leading force providing support of Palestinian refugees across the Middle East region mainly providing education and emergency medical assistance.
Topic:: Education, International Affairs, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East

88. Intelligence and Policy Community Cooperation in the Libya WMD Disarmament Case

Author:: William H. Tobey
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: As the Trump Administration prepares to negotiate with North Korea, a question has arisen as to what model Washington should follow. National Security Advisor John Bolton has suggested that the Libyan nuclear case represents the best example to emulate. Given the violence Libya suffered after it disarmed, this recommendation provoked criticism, not only from the North Korean government, but a number of American analysts. Anticipating the importance of this case, NPEC commissioned William Tobey, former Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration, to write a primary history. Mr. Tobey served on the National Security Council in the Bush (43) Administration when the Libyan nuclear case was being worked.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Libya

89. Avoiding a Nuclear Wild, Wild West in the Middle East

Author:: Henry Sokolski (ed)
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: With the Trump Administration’s announcement last fall that it intended to negotiate a civil nuclear cooperative agreement with Saudi Arabia, a debate has ensued over how restrictive any such agreement should be over the enrichment of uranium and the reprocessing of plutonium. These nuclear activities can bring a country within weeks of making its first batch of bombs. This announcement immediately raised the question, how much economic sense it made for Saudi Arabia to invest in nuclear power. It also raised a number of security questions. Should the United States allow Riyadh to reprocess and enrich even though these activities could bring Saudi Arabia within weeks of acquiring nuclear weapons? If Washington acceded to this demand by Riyadh, what would be the implications for the terms of nuclear cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Morocco? How would such an agreement impact efforts to tighten the terms of our nuclear understanding with Iran? Would such a permissive deal with Riyadh make it more difficult to say no to Seoul’s demand that we allow them to enrich uranium? All of these questions and more are discussed in this volume’s four sections
Topic:: International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Middle East

90. The Medium-Run and Scale-Up Effects of Performance-Based Financing

Author:: Diana Ngo and Sebastian Bauhoff
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Rwanda’s performance-based incentives were effective for some indicators, but unconditional financing also induced improvements. The incentive effects persisted in the mediumrun and as the program was scaled-up. Additionally, the analysis demonstrates how observational research methods and secondary data can generate new insights on existing evaluations
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

91. The Peace Process: Will the Taliban give up its Insurgency in Afghanistan?

Author:: Ifran Yar
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: In the wake of the incipient peace process in Afghanistan, new hopes have emerged and an aura of optimism has spread across the country. After the first successful meeting with the Taliban, US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad met recently with the insurgents to discuss the peace talks in Qatar. This comes after Russia, reasserting its influence in the region, hosted a landmark international conference aimed at spurring the peace efforts in its restive neighborhood. The meeting was attended by the Taliban and its adversaries and concluded without any formal breakthrough. Since 2010, many efforts have been made to broker a peace deal with the Taliban but to no avail. Will this peace process convince the Taliban to give up its insurgency?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

92. Inauspicious Incident: Erdoğan’s Evolving Relationship with Turkey’s Military

Author:: Ben Tannenbaum
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: Turkey’s military has historically played an outsized role in the country’s politics. Since assuming power in 2003, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have worked to limit the military’s political influence, a process that has damaged Turkish civil society. The military overthrew the previous AKP government in 1997, and Erdoğan sought to avoid a similar fate. However, after the first decade of Erdoğan’s rule, political loyalties shifted. His chief ally against the military, Fethullah Gülen, became Erdoğan’s principal rival. The drama escalated in 2016 when Gülen allegedly cultivated a cohort of military officers in an attempted coup against Erdoğan. Since thwarting the coup, Erdoğan has successfully re-escalated his quest to constrain the military’s domestic political role. Nevertheless, despite this political feuding, Erdoğan and the Turkish military do hold some common interests on foreign policy. Their overlapping goals have provided some basis for cooperation between Erdoğan and his military. Erdoğan has scored political gains from his relationship with the military, instituting policies that have harmed Turkey’s economy and threatened its democracy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. Trump isn’t NATO’s Only Problem

Author:: Basel Ammane
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: During the last NATO Summit in Brussels in July, the first since the onset of the Trump presidency, observers were carefully watching in anticipation of any indicators about the state of commitment by the US to the alliance. Trump’s antics, such as the insults he levelled at Germany, the impudent demands he made, and the thinly-veiled threat he issued unsurprisingly dominated media coverage. This served as a reminder that the alliance and its members need to work vigorously to safeguard US commitment given that this president’s preoccupation with prodding allies into increasing military spending, though echoed by previous administrations, is much more forceful and borders on the nakedly belligerent. To make matters worse, a skeptical view of alliances that sees them through a transactional prism and portrays them as burdens seems to be a consistent view that President Trump has held for years. This further demonstrates that the risk of a declining US commitment to the alliance is real. But a shaky commitment by a US president is hardly the only source of problems for today’s NATO.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

94. Limited Justice for Syria on the Horizon

Author:: Basel Ammane
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: The recent attacks in Eastern Ghouta in which a swath of land housing a population of 400,000 was surrounded, shelled incessantly and later invaded have refocused the world’s attention on the events in Syria.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

95. Better Blending: Making the Case for Transparency and Accountability in Blended Finance

Author:: Transparency International
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: As available resources for official development assistance have come under strain in the past ten years, blended finance has been hailed as a means to finance development in low- and middle-income countries. Governments and international organisations are increasingly advocating the use of blended finance to fill the “financing gap” between current commitments and target levels of investment needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Little consideration has been given to potential corruption risks in blended finance mechanisms. As a result, integrity issues in blended finance projects are understudied and poorly appreciated by many development practitioners, investors and regulators. As blended finance becomes an increasingly common instrument in development assistance, a richer understanding of the cause and impact of corrupt practices in this form of development finance is essential.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. Model Monitoring Agreement

Author:: Transparency International
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: One of the oldest weapons in Transparency International’s anti-corruption arsenal is the Integrity Pact, designed specifically to tackle corruption in public procurement – one of the biggest areas of corruption risk for governments.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. Social Audit in 20 Steps

Author:: Transparency International
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Social audit is a powerful social accountability tool. It has led to the conviction of public officials for violating the right to information law in Guatemala, a 50 per cent reduction in the costs of public construction works in Peru, and cancelling an illegal education fee in Ghana. Social audit scrutinises public officials’ decisions and/or actions, looking for administrative or financial irregularities. It seeks to uncover discrepancies by comparing public documents, processes or services with how they should be. It can take many names and forms, ranging from social audits in Guatemala and anti-corruption brigades in Peru, to social auditing clubs in Ghana. This report extracts lessons from the social audits implemented by Acción Ciudadana in Guatemala, Proética in Peru and Ghana Integrity Initiative in Ghana. The report examines the social audit outcome reports and other records shared by the three Transparency International chapters, and includes an extensive review of the wider literature on social audits. Based on these experiences, the report outlines 20 key steps to implement an effective social audit.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

98. State Capacity, Democracy and Public Good Production: The case of Child Mortality

Author:: Marina Nistotskaya and Michelle D'Arcy
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:: The institutional literature on development has emphasized the need to check abuse of power, but overlooked whether the state has power in the first place. Bridging the state capacity and collective action literatures, we argue that since public goods critical for development, such as public health provision, constitute collective action problems (CAPs), and solving CAPs in groups the size of countries requires state high infrastructural power that makes individual behaviour observable/legible, so that it can be monitored and compliance enforced. It is only when democracy is institutionalized within such a state that it can have a positive effect on public goods provision. We test this argument using a novel measure of accumulated infrastructural power – the age, extent and quality of cadastral records – for over 1,000 years for 155 countries. Our analysis shows that this variable has an independent positive effect on infant and child mortality, and it also conditions the effect of democracy. This research has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 339571) and the Swedish Research Council (grant agreement D0112101). The authors thank Robert Ellisa for excellent research assistance.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

99. Public Bureaucracy and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Russia’s Regions

Author:: Anna Khakhunova and Marina Nistotskaya
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:: New Public Management (NPM) reforms have been adopted worldwide since the mid-1970s to improve government effectiveness and efficiency. The basic premise of NPM reforms is that market orientation and management focus in the public sector will enhance effectiveness and efficiency of service delivery (Christensen and Lægreid 2010). Although NPM reforms have existed for a quarter century, we still have limited understanding of whether NPM reforms fulfill their expectations. Most importantly, very few empirical studies have been conducted that actually assess the impact of NPM reforms on performance (Alonso, Clifton, and Díaz-Fuentes 2015, Dahlström, Nistotskaya, and Tyrberg 2016, Hammerschmid and Van de Walle 2011). This study helps fill this gap by examining the effect of different NPM-type reforms on municipal performance. In particular, we assess the impact of NPM reforms on three dimensions of municipal performance – gender equity, efficiency and effectiveness – by using a data set of 810 city-level Japanese municipalities. Findings show that municipalities’ overall effort to create NPM reforms is not associated with gender equity and effectiveness in revenue expansion. However, findings suggest that municipalities with a higher commitment to various NPM- type reforms are likely to operate with lower administrative overhead costs. Results also suggest that municipalities’ efforts supporting individual reform, including outsourcing and municipal assets and debt management reform, are associated with higher efficiency in overhead costs and increased revenues from selling municipal assets. This study tests the impacts of NPM-type reforms on municipal performance in an understudied Asian developed setting.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

100. The electoral consequences of institutional failure: A comparative study of audits, rulers, and voters in Swedish municipalities

Author:: Sofia B. Vera
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:: The literature studying citizen responses to exposed political corruption is rapidly growing. While some studies explore how information credibility and group identities can reduce the electoral impact of the exposure of corruption, this article addresses different mechanisms for weak electoral accountability for corruption: public works provision and corruption prevalence. It uses a vignette experiment embedded in a national survey in Peru to isolate the causal effect of political corruption on electoral support. The results suggest that even types of corruption with side benefits would be harshly punished when attributed to incompetent politicians. They also indicate that while voters punish corruption more leniently when a candidate is competent, they respond negatively to corruption regardless of the prevalence of corruption, which casts doubt on the idea that voters in highly corrupt environments are tolerant of corruption
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS