Content Type: Working Paper / Topic: Government

1401. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro

1402. Starting from Scratch in Kosovo: The Honeymoon Is Over

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After an unprecedented, multilateral military intervention in Kosovo succeeded in expelling Serb forces and enabling the return home of more than a million displaced persons, the international community embarked on the ambitious, long-term project of securing, rebuilding, and establishing the rule of law in Kosovo, while setting the territory on the path to self-governance. Visionary promises were made to the people of Kosovo, and careful planning was undertaken at NATO and United Nations headquarters and in many European capitals. But six months into the mission, the international community has so far not been able to deliver on its promises. No Kosovars of any ethnicity feel secure, tens of thousands of people remain without adequate shelter as winter sets in, civil registration has yet to get underway, there is as yet no agreed-upon, functional system of justice, and criminals – including suspected war criminals – continue to operate with effective impunity.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

1403. Macedonia: Gearing up for Presidential Elections

Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 31 October and 14 November 1999, Macedonian citizens will go to the polls to elect a successor to 82-year-old President Kiro Gligorov, who is stepping down after two terms in office.
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Macedonia

1404. Who's Who in Kosovo

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

1405. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro

1406. Rule Over Law: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in BIH

Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: ICG, with the support of the European Commission, has established a project to promote justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the assistance of 8 partner organisations based all over BiH, ICG will monitor individual cases and general trends to highlight and promote the development of a judicial system in BiH up to the standards of a modern, European judiciary. This first, introductory report examines the factors preventing the development of an independent judiciary, and outlines steps necessary to promote judicial independence.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

1407. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation

Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

1408. Back To The Future: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 28 June 1989, Slobodan Milosevic stood on the site of the ancient Serb battleground of Kosovo Polje and delivered the speech that was to propel him to prominence and the leadership of. Ten years on, Milosevic remains firmly entrenched in power. He has survived three Balkan wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, economic sanctions, 78 days of NATO air strikes, and an indictment on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Croatia

1409. The New Kosovo Protectorate

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The ICG Balkans Report N°66, "Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia", of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

1410. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?

Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

1411. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
Topic:: Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

1412. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia

1413. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
Topic:: Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

1414. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution

Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

1415. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
Topic:: Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

1416. The State Of Albania

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

1417. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
Topic:: Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

1418. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:: Philip Manow
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

1419. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:: Philip Manow
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

1420. From Civil War to Civil Society: The Transition from War to Peace in Guatemala and Liberia

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Freed American slaves began to settle what is currently known as Liberia in the 1820s, often in the face of hostility from the local inhabitants. By 1847, the ex-slaves and their descendants had declared a republic and began a 150 year period of Americo-Liberian elite rule based on domination and exploitation of the indigenous population. In 1980, Americo-Liberian rule ended with a military coup staged by Samuel Doe. The ensuing regime, violently suppressed any form of opposition for the next ten years, creating deadly ethnic cleavages.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:: Central America, Liberia, and Guatemala

1421. The U.S. Military and Civil Infrastructure Protection: Restrictions and Discretion under the Posse Comitatus Act

Author:: Gregory D. Grove
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: This article sets out the constraints of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 (the “Act”), which generally prohibits active enforcement of civilian laws by the military, and describes the discretion of the military commander to assist civilian law enforcement in protecting America's information infrastructure against computer—assisted attack. A primary purpose of this article is to help legal advisors to commanders and DoD civilian officials better understand the boundaries of command discretion so that commanders and officials can feel free to exercise proper command discretion to assist law enforcement according to military interests and their professional and personal ethics and ideals. Another primary purpose of the article is to appraise Congress of the Act, its prohibitions, and its application to assist in framing the policy debate about how to constrain or expand the discretion of commanders and other officials to most productively serve the American public.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

1422. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege

Author:: George Bunn
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

1423. The Role of Ideology in Terrorists' Target Selection

Author:: C.J.M Drake
Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:: Ideology plays a crucial role in terrorist's target selection; it supplies terrorists with an initial motive for action and provides a prism through which they view events and the actions of other people. Those people and institutions whom they deem guilty of having transgressed the tenets of the terrorists' ideologically-based moral framework are considered to be legitimate targets which the terrorists feel justified in attacking. As an extension of this, ideology also allows terrorists to justify their violence by displacing the responsibility onto either their victims or other actors, whom in ideological terms they hold responsible for the state of affairs which the terrorists claim led them to adopt violence. While it is not the only factor which determines whether a potential target is attacked, ideology provides an initial range of legitimate targets and a means by which terrorists seek to justify attacks, both to the outside world and to themselves.
Topic:: Security, Government, Peace Studies, and Terrorism

1424. The Role of the Private Sector in the Evolution of US Technology Policy

Author:: Judith Mariscal and John B. Horrigan
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: Technology policy in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past ten to twelve years, as the government has increasingly played an active role in the high-tech sector and as the sector itself has faced growing competition from foreign competitors. Truths (or apparent truths) which once were unquestioned—that the U.S. government should only intervene in technology for national security reasons, that entrepreneurial high-tech firms operate best as "lone rangers" in the marketplace—have been closely scrutinized. The result of such scrutiny is that government and industry have changed their perceptions about their roles in a world in which the economic and competitive environment shifts rapidly. Another outcome is that technology policy has taken on increasing importance in U.S. policy circles. We see in the Clinton Administration plans to promote the information superhighway, proposals to overhaul the way in which the telecommunications industry is regulated, support for government-industry research consortia, closer linkage of trade and technology policy, and in general a much closer industry government relationship with the high-tech sector.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

1425. EWI Baltic Initiative Fund

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: In this report we wish to provide a brief account of what the EWI Baltic Initiative Fund has accomplished in its first year, and of some of the things we are hoping to achieve in the future. Our experience over the past eighteen months has convinced all of us at EWI that there is a job to be done, and that we have a real contribution to make. The very favorable responses we continue to receive from our Baltic partners encourage us to believe that our program is indeed worthwhile and fills an important need.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Maryland

1426. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 5: September 9, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

1427. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 4: August 31, 1998

Author:: Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

1428. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

1429. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

1430. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

1431. Building a Composite Polity: Popular Contention in the European Union

Author:: Sidney Tarrow
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:: While much research has focussed on the interest group process growing up around the institutions of European union, far less attention has been given to the contentious forms of politics appearing at the base of the process of European integration. Part of the problem lies in models of integration that either focus on single levels of the European Union — states or supranational entities — or on vertical policy networks and domains. But another important part results from the difficulty of systematically analyzing the reactions of ordinary people to EU directives. This paper both reports on a new, computer-assisted method of studying European contentious politics and draws on a case study of recent industrial conflict to demonstrate how supranational actors, national political elites, domestic social actors and the press are beginning to interact to produce a composite — and contentious — European polity.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Europe

1432. Efficiency of the Welfare State

Author:: Pierre Pestieau and Claudine Gouyette
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:: In general, when the concepts of efficiency and of welfare state are coupled, one first thinks of the effects of the welfare state, notably including the taxes it implies and the benefits it generates, on the efficiency of the economy. This topic has been widely discussed in recent works. One of the main charges addressed to modern welfare states is, indeed, that they would hurt economic performance and international competitiveness. Another charge just as widespread is that they would be inefficient in the provision of social services, and be responsible for the proliferation of transfer programs that are costly and miss their target populations. This charge is thus different from the first one, though not totally unrelated. It concerns the economic efficiency of the welfare state per se, and this is the topic of this paper.
Topic:: Government and Political Economy

1433. Ideas, Culture and Political Analysis Workshop

Author:: Thomas Risse, Sarah Mendelson, Neil Fligstein, Jan Kubik, Jeffrey T. Checkel, Consuelo Cruz, Kathleen McNamara, Sheri Berman, Frank Dobbin, Mark Blyth, Ken Pollack, George Steinmetz, Daniel Philpott, Gideon Rose, Martha Finnemore, Kathryn Skikkink, Marie Gottschalk, John Kurt Jacobsen, and Anna Seleny
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The last decade or so has witnessed a resurgence in scholarship employing ideational and cultural factors in the analysis of political life. This scholarship has addressed political phenomena across a variety of national and international settings, with studies of European politics being particularly well represented. For example, the work of scholars like Peter Hall (1993), Peter Katzenstein (1996), Ronald Inglehart (1997), Robert Putnam (1994) and Daniel Jonah Goldhagen (1995) has improved our understandings of European polities, societies and economies. Yet despite a recent rise in interest, ideational and cultural explanations still meet with skepticism in many quarters of the discipline. Some scholars doubt whether non-material factors like ideas or culture have independent causal effects, and others, who accept that such factors might matter, despair of devising viable ways of analyzing their impact on political life.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Democratization, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, France, and Latin America

1434. Rise and Fall: East–West Synchronicity and Indic Exceptionalism Reexamined

Author:: Christopher Chase-Dunn, Thomas D. Hall, and Susan Manning
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: All world–systems with at least a chiefdom level of political organization exhibit a pattern of the rise and fall of large polities. Among chiefdoms this pattern has been referred to as "cycling". In state–based systems it is known as the rise and fall of empires. And in the modern system it is called the "power cycle" or the "hegemonic sequence." This paper reexamines the question of synchronicities of rise and fall in systems linked only by very long distance prestige goods trade. Earlier research found that increases and decreases in the territorial sizes of empires and the population sizes of cities were highly correlated in East Asia and West Asia/Mediterranean regions from about 600 BCE to 1500 CE. Though data were somewhat scarce for South Asia, it appeared that Indic civilization did not rise and fall in tandem with the East and the West. In this paper we report an improved test of the synchronicity of empire sizes and the different pattern found in India
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: South Asia and East Asia

1435. Fearful, but not MAD — Modeling the Security Dilemma of Conventional Conflict

Author:: Erik Melander
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Government

1436. The Growth Of Civil Society And Citizen Input To Foreign Policymaking: The Case Of Korea

Author:: Tong Whan Park
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: Though a half century has passed since the creation of a modern nation-state, Korea lags far behind Western European nations in the development of a civil society. It may be due to a number of factors, the most important of which could be the different path to modernization Korea has taken and the forced imposition of the nation-state system on a Confucian social structure. As such, the Seoul government's decision-making in general and foreign policymaking in particular have often lacked sensitivity to what the citizens may think and desire.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:: Israel, Korea, and Western Europe

1437. International Capital Mobility and Monetary Politics in the U.S. Congress, 1960–1997

Author:: J. Lawrence Broz
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Prevailing approaches to the politics of monetary policy in the United States are based on closed economy assumptions, which is appropriate for analyzing the period before about 1980. However, the opening of U.S. and foreign financial markets since the early 1980s has had a profound effect on domestic monetary policy and domestic monetary politics. The major policy effect is that the transmission channels of monetary policy now include the exchange rate. The major political effect is that the exchange rate has become a focus of concern for well-organized industries in the traded goods sector and, by extension, for Congress. This paper presents statistical evidence showing that the forces driving congressional activity on monetary policy have changed dramatically with the international financial integration of the U.S. economy. Exchange rates, as opposed to interest rates, now largely determine congressional attentiveness to monetary policy and the Federal Reserve.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1438. The State in a Changing World: A Critique of the 1997 World Development Report

Author:: Devesh Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: In recent years, the World Bank has been at the vanguard in pressing for a circumscribed role for the State in developing countries. It therefore comes as somewhat of a surprise that the 1997 World Development Report (WDR - the World Bank's annual flagship publication), The State in a Changing World, underscores the continuing significance of the State in LDCs.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Organization, and Third World

1439. Right Makes Might: Freedom and Power in the Information Age

Author:: David C. Gompert
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: China's emergence begs a fresh look at power in world affairs—more precisely, at how the spread of freedom and the integration of the global economy, due to the information revolution, are affecting the nature, concentration, and purpose of power. Perhaps such a look could improve the odds of responding wisely to China's rise.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Soviet Union

1440. Reproductive Health: New Directions and New Technologies

Author:: Rodney W. Nichols, Susan U. Raymond, Margaret Catley-Carlson, Allan Rosenfield, and Michael E. Kafrissen
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: Surely one of the oddest of all recent debates is well underway in the United States. At issue is whether, in the year 2000 the population of the nation should be counted nose-by-nose, on foot, by an phalanx of freshly minted, part-time, house visiting census-takers (who evidently missed 8.4 million residents the last time they tried in 1990) or whether a technique should be used that would employ statistical sampling methods to reach census conclusions. The majority of those most heatedly engaged in the public debate probably did not even like math in school; many would not be able to explain the likely accuracy of either method. But debate they do, in the time-honored tradition of policy making in democracies—largely because the coveted prize is not merely an accurate count of the number of individuals, but more importantly an advantageous decision on the number of voters in electoral districts.
Topic:: Government, Health, Politics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

1441. Science, Technology, and the Law

Author:: Peter Huber, Susan Raymond, Rodney W. Nichols, Kenneth Dam, Kenneth R. Foster, George Ehrlich, Debra Miller, Alan Charles Raul, Ronald Bailey, and Alex Kozinski
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: As science and technology push the edges of understanding, innovation makes the once unimaginable merely quotidian. The flow—the torrent—of change inevitably meets the stock of laws and regulations that structure society. And, often, the legal system and the judiciary must cope with the resulting swirls, eddies, and, at times, whirlpools of ethical controversy and economic and societal choice.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Law, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, New York, and America

1442. Science and Technology for African Development: Partnerships in a Global Economy

Author:: Soodursun Jugessur, Susan U. Raymond, Stephen Chandiwana, Clive Shiff, Pieter J.D. Drenth, D. N. Tarpeh, Iba Kone, Jacques Gaillard, and Roland Waast
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: This paper examines the eureka factor in science based development and underscores the increasing concern that Africa lags behind in S due to political and social instability coupled by low investments in technologies. The paper emphasises that African science should come up with a decisive policy for investment in new style education and capacity building for S that is relevant to the African experience and addresses problems of real concern to the community. Science led development in Africa should reduce replication of foreign technologies and invest in social capital of its scientists and its R institutions for sustainable economic development. The aim of the paper is not to offer prescriptive solutions but to highlight areas which should stimulate debate in small working groups examining how Africa can learn from its own experience as well as that of other nations in developing an appropriate system of innovation for science led development.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

1443. Democracy and Reform in Cardoso's Brazil: Caught Between Clientelism and Global Markets?

Author:: Willian C. Smith and Nizar Messari
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper explores President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's record and his attempt to seek reelection on October 4 over the challenge of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and the left. These events are examined in the context of a central, inescapable dilemma of contemporary Brazilian politics: how to reconcile the exigencies of the market and globalization with the equally compelling needs to promote democracy while combating poverty, violence, and social exclusion. The paper concludes with analyses of various alternative politico-economic scenarios for Brazil following the October elections.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil

1444. Democratization, health care reform, and ngo—government collaboration: catalyst or constraint?

Author:: Alberto Cardelle
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: The increasingly diminished role of the state in Latin America has been accompanied by decentralization of health care delivery and an enhanced role of the private sector in delivery of services. Simultaneously, in the process of regional democratization, the number of organized civil society groups, NGOs, has expanded, increasing the alliances formed between NGOs and governments in the process of state reform. This paper examines the experiences of 20 NGO-government collaborative health care reform projects undertaken in Guatemala, Chile, and Ecuador. Assessments are made as to how factors, such as civil society-state relations, democratization, state reform, and international pressure, have catalyzed or constrained policies promoting the collaborations. The projects' implementation processes are analyzed with an emphasis on determining their sustainability, and various aspects of the collaborations — for example, funding, coordinated planning, and training — are evaluated. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations for future implementation of similar projects.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: Latin America

1445. Role of the Private Sector: Study Group

Author:: Virginia Haufler
Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The study group addressed four topics: the definition of what we are examining; whether it is a new phenomenon; some of the factors driving it; and the concerns it raises. The goal at this meeting was to set the context for further discussion at the next meeting. Participants stressed that this is an important topic and a timely project. Please note that this summarizes the main points and imposes a certain order on what was in reality a wide-ranging discussion.
Topic:: International Relations, Globalization, Government, and International Political Economy

1446. Perspectives From Four Continents: Solving the Global Public Pensions Crisis

Author:: Cato Institute
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: On December 8-9 the Cato Institute and The Economist cosponsored a conference on the global public pensions crisis at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in London. Among the speakers were Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization; Clive Crook, deputy editor of The Economist; Carlos Boloña, former finance minister of Peru; Mukul Asher of the University of Singapore; and Peter Ferrara, chief economist at Americans for Tax Reform and an associate policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Excerpts from their remarks follow.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: London

1447. The Specter of Pervasiveness: Pacifica, New Media, and Freedom of Speech

Author:: Jonathan D. Wallace
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Under the legal doctrine of pervasiveness, media such as television and radio get much less protection from censorship than do print media. The Supreme Court should reject the pervasiveness doctrine as a dangerously broad and vague excuse for speech regulation. If the doctrine applies to any medium, it could arguably apply to all media. The pervasiveness doctrine thus threatens to curtail the First Amendment's protection of freedom of speech.
Topic:: Government, Industrial Policy, Political Economy, and Science and Technology

1448. The Future of the Public Sector--The Challenges for Policy Research in a Changing Environment

Author:: George Galster
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: As we approach the 21st century, the public seems increasingly disenchanted with the record of government, and less and less inclined to believe in the value of empirical analysis as a guide to action. Evidence of the loss of confidence in the public sector's ability to operate effectively and efficiently is found in opinion polls, falling rates of electoral participation, and the rising influence of "anti-government" politicians. In such an environment, it is useful to reflect on the historical role that applied social science has played in the public sector and the role it might play in the future.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States

1449. Immigrants in New York: Their Legal Status, Incomes, and Taxes

Author:: Jeffrey S. Passel and Rebecca L. Clark
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: This report provides essential demographic and economic information on legal immigrants residing in New York State and addresses significant shortcomings in the existing data for immigrants and in analyses of fiscal impacts of legal immigrants. It focuses on four major issues: the size of the legal immigrant populations; the characteristics of legal status groups, including both legal and undocumented populations; the incomes and taxes paid by immigrant populations and natives; and the economic adaptation of immigrants and their descendants.
Topic:: Government, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States and New York

1450. The Number and Cost of Immigrants on Medicaid: National and State Estimates

Author:: Leighton Ku and Bethany Kessler
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: This work was conducted under Subtask 2.2.12 of HHS Contract HHS-100-94-1009. Many constructive comments were provided by staff of the Department of Health and Human Services, including Linda Sanches, David Nielsen, Penelope Pine and Bob Tomlinson. We gratefully acknowledge data and advice made available by Ron North and Roger Buchanan of the Health Care Financing Administration and Charles Scott of the Social Security Administration. Many colleagues at the Urban Institute offered useful advice or data, including Brian Bruen, Rebecca Clark, Teresa Coughlin, Linda Giannarelli, Jeff Passel, Karen Tumlin and Wendy Zimmerman. All opinions expressed are the authors' and should not be interpreted as opinions of the Urban Institute or the Department of Health and Human Services.
Topic:: Government and Migration
Political Geography:: United States

1451. Information Technology and Economic Development: An Introduction to the Research Issues

Author:: Matti Pohjola
Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: There is substantial evidence that new information technologies are in many ways transforming the operations of modern economies. More than half of employees use a computer at work in the most advanced industrial countries. About 10 per cent of the value of all private investment in fixed non-residential capital is devoted to computers and peripheral equipment in the United States and some other economies. This share goes up to 25 per cent when investment in information processing equipment is included. Nevertheless, all spending on information technology, including hardware, software and services, does not amount to more than 3-4 per cent of nominal GDP in these countries. The share is, however, increasing rapidly, indicating that a steady state has not yet been reached.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

1452. Computers and Labour Markets: International Evidence

Author:: Francis Kramarz
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

1453. Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries

Author:: Richard M. Auty
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Government, and International Political Economy

1454. MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia's military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic's opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade's handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic "yes-men" regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic's and Perisic's sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic's rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic's resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

1455. 1998 Elections In Macedonia

Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Macedonians go to the polls on 18 October 1998 in the first of two rounds of voting to elect 120 members of the country's parliament. The forthcoming poll is Macedonia's third general election since the disintegration of one-party communist rule. Moreover, it takes place in the shadow of ethnic violence between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in the neighbouring Serbian province of Kosovo and political instability in neighbouring Albania. Although Macedonia has managed to avoid the violent conflict which has afflicted the rest of the former Yugoslavia, its experience of democracy has so far been mixed. Politics is divided along ethnic lines and the last multi-party elections in 1994 were marred by accusations of fraud with two major parties boycotting the second round of voting.
Topic:: Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania

1456. Doing Democracy A Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The stakes in Bosnia's forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which "support Dayton" and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

1457. Whither Bosnia?

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite considerable progress since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in November 1995 in consolidating the peace and rebuilding normal life in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), international efforts do not appear to be achieving the goal of establishing Bosnia as a stable, functioning state, able at some point to run its own affairs without the need for continued international help. Peace, in the narrow sense of an absence of war, has been maintained; progress has been made in establishing freedom of movement throughout the country; joint institutions, including the state presidency, parliamentary assemblies and ministries, as well as a joint command for the armed forces of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), have been established.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

1458. The External Sector, the State and Development in Eastern Europe

Author:: Barry Eichengreen and Richard Kohl
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Early optimists hoped that Eastern Europe might be able to emulate the high-performance economies of Asia once the shock of liberalization was absorbed. The ingredients of the East Asian “miracle,” in this view, were rapid accumulation based on high investment in physical and human capital, productivity growth based on technology transfer through licensing and direct foreign investment, rapidly expanding exports able to support industrial specialization and scale economies, and a strong state capable of guiding the development process and solving coordination problems. Emulating this recipe could provide the basis, it was hoped, for the expansion of exports and buoyant economic growth more generally.
Topic:: Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

1459. Charismatic Leadership and Democratization: A Weberian Perspective

Author:: Michael Bernhard
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Given the history of charismatic dictatorship in this century, charismatic leaders have been seen as threats to democracy. At the same time, periods of accelerated political change, such as the period of post-Communist democratization in Eastern and Central Europe, also give rise to charismatic leaders. This paper establishes the conditions under which charismatic leaders are compatible with democracy. Using a framework drawn from Max Weber's sociological writings the paper argues that charismatic leadership is only compatible with democracy when charisma is routinized in a rational-legal direction. In that routinization, however, rational-legal procedures (the rule-boundedness of power) must predominate over charismatic elements (the arbitrary and personal exercise of power). When this balance is reversed the result will be dictatorship. This discussion highlights the fact that both modern dictatorship and democracy legitimate themselves by a combination of charismatic and rational elements. It then considers whether Weber's theory can help us to understand the impact of the charismatic leadership on post-communist democratization by considering the experience of Havel in the Czech Republic, Wa__sa in Poland, and Yeltsin in Russia. It concludes with a discussion of charisma and its role in both democracy and dictatorship in the contemporary era. It finds that the similarity in the way in which modern democracy and dictatorship are legitimated augers better for the viability of authoritarian regimes than the many recent accounts which predict a diminished prospect for dictatorship in the current era might suggest.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

1460. International Financial Markets as Sources of Crises or Discipline

Author:: Thomas D. Willett
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

1461. Westphalia in Europe as West Failure Abroad? A Comparative Study of the Fate of the Nation-State in Non-Europe

Author:: Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: Conventionally viewing the state as a black box and focusing almost exclusively on its outward orientation, the Westphalia paradigm, I argue, has outlived its purpose, and may even be misleading when applied to the more porous and democratic state today. Rather than measure state viability in terms of power balances abroad, three constituent elements extracted from the Westphalia literature are used to evaluate internal state viability instead: the relationship between the nation and the state, the capacities of the state itself, and the state within a collectivity. Whereas the first is operationalized in terms of Buzan's four-fold typology, the second focuses on how two forms of internal divisions have been resolved—between city and country interests over policy-making, and between various classes in society through governmental income redistribution programs—while the third evaluates the propensity of the state to delegate loyalties to any supranational entity in the 1990s. Over 160 sovereign countries are pooled into 5 geographical regions for the analysis. The results strengthen the above argument, and generally portray the exceptionalism of West Europe: It is the global hub of established national states, even though there are more state nations worldwide whose historical emergence accented internal development over external security considerations; viable states, measured in terms of established democracies, urban preponderance over policy making, and welfare redistribution; and transferring loyalties beyond the state.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Maryland, and Westphalia

1462. Liberals, Radicals, and Women's Citizenship in Chile, 1872-1930

Author:: Erika Maza Valenzuela
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper analyzes women's organizations in the anticlerical-and middle- to upper-class-segment of Chilean society from the late nineteenth century to 1930. It focuses on their leaders' positions regarding women's rights, especially the suffrage. The feminist organizations within the anticlerical segment developed later than the Catholic ones and they had less contact with women in the popular sectors. These organizations had varying degrees of anticlericalism. Some of their members were free thinkers, a few were Protestant, and many of them were Catholics who were critical of the clergy's influence in society and politics. This paper shows that, during the period studied here, the anticlerical leaders, both men and women, were opposed to granting women full suffrage rights. They argued that, before voting, women should be given their civil rights and access to secular education under state auspices. However, even after the Civil Code had been partially modified and the number of women with secular secondary education had become roughly equal to that of men in the mid 1920s, anticlerical leaders still only supported the vote for women in municipal elections. By enfranchising women only for local elections, anticlerical leaders-Liberals and Radicals-sought to 'educate' women politically while preventing them from tipping the balance of forces benefiting the Conservative Party in legislative and presidential elections. Catholic-Conservatives had been more inclusive of women in education, social life, and politics since the mid-nineteenth century, and for this reason they had a greater capacity to appeal for women's votes.
Topic:: Gender Issues and Government
Political Geography:: Latin America

1463. The Origins of Hungary's 1989 Electoral Law

Author:: John W. Schiemann and Kenneth Benoit
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Theories which explain the origins of institutions as the product of struggles for distributive advantage provide only a general framework with no conceptualization of the bargaining process and few applications to empirical cases. We address both problems and extend the distributive theory of institutional origins by drawing on a unique set of data to examine the creation of the Hungarian electoral law of 1989. Arguing that outcomes are shaped by four mechanisms arising from bargaining - time preferences, the credibility of threats and promises, mimicked fairness, and symmetrical division - we develop observable implications of these mechanisms and test them empirically by analyzing the bargaining which produced the multiple rules of Hungary's complex electoral system. Not only does the Hungarian case confirm the bargaining mechanism theory of institutional origins, but the theory also explains many curious features of the Hungarian electoral institutions, including its surprising combination of extraordinary complexity and unusual stability.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

1464. Modern U.S. Civil-Military Relations: Wielding the Terrible Swift Sword

Author:: David E. Johnson
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: On November 30, 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry testified before the House International Relations and National Security committees on the commitment of U.S. ground forces to the Former Yugoslavia. The commitment, crafted in Dayton, Ohio, had been avoided for some 4 years. Perry carefully discussed the mission, rules of engagement, and exit strategy for U.S. forces.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States and Yugoslavia

1465. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Janice Stein
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1466. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Don Sylvan
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

1467. Health Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:: Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and America

1468. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

Author:: Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy

1469. Mixed Signals

Author:: Peter A. Hall and Robert J. Franzese Jr.
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank or other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

1470. Balancing Positive and Negative Integration: The Regulatory Options for Europe

Author:: Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: During the golden years from the 1950s to the mid-1970s, the industrial nations of Western Europe had the chance to develop specifically national versions of the capitalist welfare state - and their choices were in fact remarkably different (Esping-Andersen 1990). In spite of the considerable differences between the "Social-Democratic", "Corporatist" or "Liberal" versions, however, all were remarkably successful in maintaining full employment and promoting economic growth, while also controlling, in different ways and to different degrees, the destructive tendencies of unfettered capitalism in the interest of specific social, cultural, and/or ecological values (Scharpf 1991a; Merkel 1993). It was not fully realized at the time, however, how much the success of market-correcting policies did in fact depend on the capacity of the territorial state to control its economic boundaries. Once this capacity is lost, countries are forced into a competition for locational advantage which has all the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game (Sinn 1994). It reduces the freedom of national governments and unions to raise the regulatory and wage costs of national firms above the level prevailing in competing locations. Moreover, and if nothing else changes, the "competition of regulatory systems" that is generally welcomed by neoliberal economists (Streit/Mussler 1995) and politicians may well turn into a downward spiral of competitive deregulation and tax cuts in which all competing countries will find themselves reduced to a level of protection that is in fact lower than that preferred by any of them.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

1471. Regulatory Competition and International Cooperation

Author:: Philipp Genschel and Thomas Plumper
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Recent research has shown that regulatory competition does not necessarily lead to downward pressures on regulation, but may at times also push the level of regulation upwards. Extending David Vogel's "California effect" argument, this paper shows that such upward pressure may not only result directly from the dynamics of the competitive process but also from international cooperation. Evidence from two case studies on international capital market regulation is used to identify the conditions under which cooperation in the shadow of regulatory competition is likely to succeed or fail. The successful multilateral standardisation of banking capital requirements in the BIS is compared to failed attempts to harmonise interest taxation across EC member states.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: California

1472. Electricity: Liberal Futures

Author:: Walt Patterson
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Like the international dimension of electricity discussed in Working Paper 1, the liberal dimension of electricity has emerged only recently, at least as a recognized concept. However, whereas the international dimension is genuinely new, the dimension now characterized as 'liberal' needs closer examination. The language of policy discourse is not always consistent. Until the 1990s, policy analysts habitually referred to the electricity industry as 'conservative', in the sense that it was resistant to change and deeply wary of risk. However, those who first acted to 'liberalize' electricity were themselves 'conservative', in conventional political terms, notably the governments of Chile and the UK in the 1980s. That apparent irony in itself suggests that 'liberalizing' electricity is a more subtle and complex process than the term itself might indicate.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Chile

1473. Making Connections for Africa: Constituencies, Movements, Interest Groups, Coalitions, and Conventional Wisdoms

Author:: William Minter
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: This paper was prepared by APIC Senior Research Fellow William Minter for the Constituency Builders' Dialogue organized by the Africa Policy Information Center, held at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, over the weekend of January 10-12, 1997. The Dialogue was designed as an opportunity for a diverse group of activists from different sectors of Africa advocacy work in the United States to step back, reflect and engage in dialogue on the strategic directions for grassroots Africa constituency-building in the current period. The Dialogue was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and by ongoing support from the Ford Foundation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and New York

1474. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments

Author:: Andrew Krepinevich
Publication Date:: 08-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

1475. Military Doctrine and Political Participation: Toward a Sociology of Strategy

Author:: Yagil Levy
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:: Wars produce contrasting effects on the state's status in the domestic arena: they bolster its internal control but, at the same time, create opportunities for collective action of which domestic groups can take advantage and weaken state autonomy. As the case of Israel suggests, within the confines of geo-political constraints, states modify their military doctrine to balance the two contradictory impacts. The main purpose of the paper is to lay the foundation for a Sociology of Strategy by drawing on the case of Israel.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1476. The Democratic Control Of Armed Forces

Author:: Rudolf Joo
Publication Date:: 02-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Political control of armed forces is not a problem that has confronted only liberal democracies of the twentieth century. Even less is it an issue challenging only the democratizing societies of Central and Eastern Europe in the l990s. The crucial dilemma -- that a separate armed body established in order to protect a society might pose a threat to that same society -- goes back to antiquity. The ever-relevant question of who guards the guards was a central issue in Plato's dialogue The Republic, written about 2,500 years ago. Plato, in presenting what he considered to be the right order of society, described the military state as a deviation. Ancient Greece and the Roman Empire were both confronted with the dilemma `sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?' The question has remained the same over the centuries, but as armed forces and society have changed, the nature of the problem has also changed.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Greece

1477. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:: Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

1478. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece

Author:: Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
Publication Date:: 07-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

1479. Clausewitzian Friction and Future War

Author:: Barry D. Watts
Publication Date:: 10-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia

1480. Global Cooperation in Science, Engineering, and Medicine

Author:: Susan Raymond and Rodney Nichols
Publication Date:: 02-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: Many experienced observers have noted a persistent fatigue in current systems of international cooperation on research in science, engineering, and medicine. The institutions designed to serve global science since the end of World War II are not keeping pace with the changes sweeping science and technology. In the mid–1990s, the unease and uncertainty has become acute. Yet, simultaneously, research and education in science, engineering, and medicine are themselves becoming increasingly international in scope. This trend is not created by formal collaborative institutions. Instead, the factors setting the global pace include the rise of high–capacity, rapid modes of electronic communications; the end of the Cold War and the defense–based motivations that drove much innovation; the expanding scientific capacity throughout the world; and the emergence of new scientific problems that are increasingly global in nature and widely acknowledged as common priorities among scientists and nations. The uncertain “fit” between traditional institutional arrangements and tomorrow's generation of scientific activities has engendered widespread concern. A central question is how best to re–tool existing mechanisms to serve most effectively international collaboration in addressing the societal goals and research frontiers of the 21st century. The prescription for possible therapies, however, must be accompanied by a clear understanding of the nature of the symptoms and a careful analysis of the current state of existing, collaborative mechanisms.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: New York

1481. The Politics of Free Trade in the Western Hemisphere

Author:: Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Just as the 1980s now stand out as the decade of the debt crisis in Latin America, the 1990s have become the free trade decade. After a number of failed attempts at trade liberalization during the 1970s, many states in the region now have made dramatic progress in their efforts to reduce tariffs and eliminate quantitative restrictions (QRs) (see Table 1). The strongest evidence of this new openness is reflected in Mexico's 1994 entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada, the stated intention at the 1994 Summit of the Americas in Miami to develop a plan for the full expansion of hemispheric free trade, and the ongoing consolidation of such subregional trade pacts as South America's Southern Cone Common Market (MER - COSUR), including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
Topic:: Development, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, Brazil, South America, Uruguay, Caribbean, North America, and Paraguay

1482. Discourse Analysis as Foreign Policy Theory

Author:: Ole Wæver
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Germany

1483. Supranational Governance: The Institutionalization of the European Union

Author:: Wayne Sandholtz and Alec Stone Sweet
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: We posit a continuum of modes of governance, anchored at the poles by intergovernmental and supranational politics. Movement from intergovernmental politics toward the supranational pole implies the increasing importance of three factors in EU policymaking: EU rules, EU organizations, and transnational society. We propose that an increase in one of the three factors creates conditions that favor growth in the other two. We also offer a theory as to what drives initial movement toward supranational governance: increasing levels of cross-border transactions and communications by societal actors will increase the perceived need for European-level rules, coordination, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The theory provides a coherent answer to the question of why integration proceeds faster in some domains than in others. We expect movement toward supranational governance in sectors where the intensity and value of cross-border transactions is rising.
Topic:: Government and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

1484. From Free Trade to Supranational Polity: The European Court and Integration

Author:: Alec Stone Sweet and James A. Caporaso
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: In this paper, we propose a dynamic theory of legal integration, test the model quantitatively, and then cross-check it by way of process tracing. We show that transnational exchange, litigation, and the production of Euro-rules have evolved interdependently, and argue that this interdependence provokes and reinforces the spillover effects that partly drive the construction of supranational governance. In case studies of the impact of the legal system on outcomes in two areas, the free movement of goods and European social provisions, we show that our model outperforms the dominant framework for understanding how the EC legal system operates - intergovernmentalism. In each of these areas, the data show that the legal system functions to reduce member-state government control over policy outcomes, and to enhance the influence of supranational institutions, national judges, and private actors.
Topic:: Government, International Law, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

1485. Emergence of a Supranational Telecommunications Regime

Author:: Wayne Sandholtz
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: The patchwork of national telecommunications monopolies in the EU was incapable of meeting a rapidly growing need on the part of societal actors for efficient, technologically advanced, cross-border telecommunications. The Commission mobilized various transnational actors -- equipment manufacturers, business users, providers of new services, suppliers of alternative infrastructures -- to support its plans for EU-level liberalization and harmonization. Whereas in a first phase the Commission acted as a source of initiatives and models for states whose policies were in flux, the second phase saw a dramatic shift in the nature of governance. Employing its powers under Article 90 of the Treaty (which does not require Council approval), the Commission set out to abolish national monopolies in telecoms equipment, services, and, finally, infrastructures. The telecoms case thus supports three of the project's central propositions: that societal transactions drive movement toward supranational governance; that changes in EU rules, organizations, and transnational society are interlinked; and that member states do not always control these processes of institutionalization.
Topic:: Government, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

1486. The European Commission's Ability to Act under European Competition Law: The Example of Telecommunications and Electricity Policy

Author:: Susanne K. Schmidt
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: European competition law allocates far-reaching competences to the European Commission. The paper asks for the conditions under which the Commission may use these rights against the member states, focusing on the most powerful provision - the right of the Commission under Article 90 to issue directives by itself in those cases where member-state governments have allocated specific rights to undertakings that conflict with the Treaty's rules. In addition the Commission may pursue Treaty violations on a case-by-case basis. In European telecommunications policy the Commission has used its powers rather successfully, with all liberalization decisions being based on Article 90. But for European electricity policy the Commission has shrunk away from using these powers in favor of initiating council legislation. The paper analyzes the conditions of the Commission's ability to act under European competition law in a multi-level framework, drawing among others on a principal-agent approach.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Government, International Law, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

1487. Legitimate Rule in the European Union

Author:: Frank Schimmelfennig
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe

1488. The Revival of the Nation-State?

Author:: Susanne Lutz
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The debate on economic 'globalization' suggests that the blurring of territorial boundaries shifts the power relations between nation-states and domestic market constituencies in favour of the latter. States have lost autonomy since policies are increasingly formulated in supranational or global arenas. Market actors may use their wider choice of geographic location in order to lobby for low regulated market environments. The paper seeks to differentiate this common view considerably. It argues that economic internationalization weakens the capacity of domestic market actors to engage in self-binding agreements that formerly had solved regulatory problems. Networks of interstate collaboration in turn lack the ability to monitor and enforce negotiated agreements. Both developments impose new duties of market supervision on the nation-state. Empirical reference is drawn from the stock exchange sector that went through a process of transformation which has led to an enhanced role of the nation-state in the model of sectoral governance.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Government, and International Trade and Finance

1489. Nigeria: Country Profile

Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, was a pioneer in the movement for African independence. In past centuries, its territory was home to a series of powerful and technically-advanced societies, renowned for their artistic, commercial, and political achievements.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1490. 1995-1996 State of World Conflict Report

Author:: Andrew Young
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: This year, the world celebrated the 100th anniversary of the modern Olympiad. Consider this vision of a world at peace: The opening ceremonies in Atlanta's Centennial Olympic Stadium, where more than 10,000 athletes from 197 countries gathered to demonstrate the highest ideals—teamwork, sportsmanship, and recognition of personal achievement. All invited countries participated, free of the ideological and political restraints that prevented many from attending in years past. For 16 days in July and August the world came together to honor those striving to surmount universal standards of excellence. Our hearts reached out to the hurdler who stumbled just before the finish line, the marathon runner who shook off fatigue, the Paralympian who rose above all expectations. We saw, for a brief moment, the potential all of us have to better ourselves and our world.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Government
Political Geography:: United Nations

1491. Symbols, Positions, Objects: Toward a New Theory of Revolutions and Collective Action

Author:: Mustafa Emirbayer and Jeff Goodwin
Publication Date:: 10-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:: In 1980, Jack Goldstone wrote an influential review essay entitled "Theories of Revolution: The Third Generation." Goldstone noted that a "third generation" of theorists had emerged during the 1970s, one that placed special emphasis on the causal role of political and economic "structures" in social revolutions, especially states, transnational forces, and peasant communities. (By contrast, "second generation" theorists emphasized the role of diffuse "social strains" and their social-psychological consequences) Today, it seems increasingly apparent that this third generation, despite its impressive theoretical contributions, has largely run its course. In fact, as John Foran has recently noted, "the first signs of a new school may be appearing on the intellectual horizon." This new perspective, Foran and many other scholars agree, ought to focus much more attention on culture and ideology (as well as on agency) than did the third generation, but without losing sight of the important role played by political and economic structures.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Science and Technology

1492. How Militarization Drives Political Control of the Military: The Case of Israel

Author:: Yagil Levy
Publication Date:: 12-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:: Observation of state-military relations in Israel reveals an apparent paradox: Within a period of about seventy years, the more the militarization of Israeli society and politics gradually increased, the more politicians were successful in institutionalizing effective control over the Israel Defence Forces (IDF, and the pre-state organizations). Militarization passed through three main stages: (1) accepting the use of force as a legitimate political instrument during the pre-state period (1920-1948), subsequent to confrontation between pacifism and activism; (2) giving this instrument priority over political-diplomatic means in the state's first years up to the point in which (3) military discursive patterns gradually dominated political discourse after the 1967 War. At the same time, political control over the IDF was tightened, going from the inculcation of the principle of the armed forces' subordination to the political level during the pre-state period to the construction of arrangements working to restrain the military leverage for autonomous action.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1493. What is Agency?

Author:: Mustafa Emirbayer and Ann Miscbe
Publication Date:: 01-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:: The concept of agency has become a source of increasing strain and confusion in social thought. Variants of action theory, normative theory, and political-institutional analysis have defended, attacked, buried, and resuscitated the concept in often contradictory and overlapping ways. At the center of the debate, the term "agency" itself has maintained an elusive, albeit resonant, vagueness; it has given rise to a long list of associated (and often equally vague) terms, such as selthood, motivation, will, purposiveness, intentionality, choice, initiative, freedom, and creativity. Yet despite the growing numbers of recent theorists -- ranging from Jeffrey Alexander, Anthony Giddens, and Pierre Bourdieu to Jurgen Habermas and James Coleman -- who have addressed the so-called "structure and agency problem," the concept of agency itself has been surprisingly neglected. In the struggle to demonstrate the interpenetration of agency and structure, most theorists have failed to distinguish agency as an analytical category in its own right -- with distinctive theoretical dimensions and temporally variable social manifestations. The result has been a flat and impoverished conception that, when it escapes the abstract voluntarism of rational choice theory, tends to remain so tightly bound to structure that one loses sight of the different ways in which agency actually shapes social action.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Science and Technology

1494. Disintegration and Consolidation: National Separatism and the Evolution of Center-Periphery Relations in the Russian Federation

Author:: John W. Slocum
Publication Date:: 07-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:: Practitioners of the late lamented science of Sovietology have been roundly criticized for failing to predict one of the most momentous events of the twentieth century—the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Anxious to avoid a repetition of past mistakes, post-Sovietologists have in turn devoted a good deal of attention to the question of whether the USSR's largest successor state, the Russian Federation, is itself in danger of breaking apart. Like the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation is a multinational state with ethnically-defined territorial subunits; political elites in these subunits, faced with massive political, economic and social uncertainty, may be attracted by the idea of political independence. During the first half of the 1990s, post-Soviet Russia has indeed experienced more than one crisis of center-periphery relations. The present study, however, suggests that the likelihood of a general disintegration of the Russian Federation peaked in the early 1990s and is now decreasing. In view of this analysis, the war in Chechnya is an exception to an overall trend toward consolidation, rather than an indicator of a general breakdown in center-periphery relations.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, and Chechnya

1495. Global Cooperation in Science, Engineering, and Medicine

Author:: Kenneth Prewitt, Susan Raymond, Young Gul Kim, Rodney Nichols, Jorge Allende, Arima Akito, Jesse Ausubel, Edward Ayensu, D. Allan Bromley, Praveen Chaudhari, Umberto Colombo, Yuri Gleba, Mark Horn, Coe Ishimoto, Geraldine Kenney-Wallace, Jan Nilsson, Geoffrey Oldham, R. K. Pachauri, Heinz Riesenhuber, Zehev Tadmor, Greg Tegart, Raimundo Villegas, Guillermo Cardoza, Diana Wolff-Albers, and William Padolina
Publication Date:: 11-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: In the fall of 1995, with assistance from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the New York Academy of Sciences organized a meeting on international collaboration in science, engineering, and medicine. The meeting was held at the Rockefeller Foundation's conference center in Bellagio, Italy from October 30 through November 2, 1995. The Academy gathered together a group of experienced international leaders to examine changes in the context and con– tent of global research cooperation and the efficacy of existing institutional mechanisms to facilitate future scientific activities. The meeting resulted in a summary report presenting the consensual views of the participants, and the New York Academy of Sciences is currently exploring a range of follow–up options with its institutional partners. Copies of the report can be obtained by contacting the Academy at the address listed below. The critical question under review at Bellagio was to assess current disparities among research opportunities, needs, and institutions and to determine the need for a more extensive international review. Discussions were based in part on extensive preparation. Prior to the meeting, all participants prepared personal statements summarizing their views of future directions for scientific collaboration, key lessons from past experience, and fundamental characteristics of successful collaborative mechanisms. These statements together with a summary issues paper produced by the New York Academy of Sciences, the meeting agenda, and biographical information on participants are collected here. The statements appear as originally distributed; none have been revised in light of the meeting's discussion. With 25 different perspectives it is to be expected that a diversity of views are represented here. However, the commentaries fall broadly along four lines of inquiry.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: New York

1496. Mission to Haiti #3

Author:: Robert A. Pastor
Publication Date:: 03-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Independent candidates and representatives from 27 political parties contested more than 2,000 municipal and Parliamentary postions in elections in Haiti on June 25, 1995. In the pre-election period, the Provisional Election Council (CEP) judged the qualifications of nearly 12,000 candidates, and disqualified about one thousand without explanations. The process was so prolonged and contentious that the ballots had to be changed up to the last days, and there were numerous mistakes. The CEP's erratic performance led three parties to boycott the election, and virtually all to question the CEP's judgment and independence. The unresponsiveness of the CEP to legitimate complaints raised by the political parties sowed seeds of distrust in the electoral process.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United Nations, Latin America, and Caribbean

1497. Not Even One

Publication Date:: 02-1994
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: We gathered at The Carter Center, 26 people from various fields and disciplines, all concerned with protecting and lengthening the lives of children, to seek a path forward amid the carnage of our children caused by firearms. What could be done to stem the hemorrhage in the streets?
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States

1498. Elections in Mexico: Third Report

Publication Date:: 08-1994
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: The national elections on August 21, 1994 will be an important milestone in Mexico's political opening. During the last four years, the Mexican Congress approved a number of important reforms to the electoral process. Yet the Mexican population remains highly skeptical about the integrity of the elections. Opinion polls show that nearly one-half of respondents expect fraud, and more than one half expect post-electoral violence.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

1499. The Democratic Challenge in Africa

Author:: Richard Joseph
Publication Date:: 05-1994
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: On May 13-14, 1994, a group of 32 scholars and practitioners took part in a seminar on Democratization in Africa at The Carter Center. This consultation was a sequel to two similar meetings held in February 1989 and March 1990. Discussion papers from those seminars have been published under the titles, Beyond Autocracy in Africa and African Governance in the 1990s. During the period 1990-94, the African Governance Program of The Carter Center moved from discussions and reflections to active involvement in the complex processes of renewed democratization in several African countries. These developments throughout Africa were also monitored and assessed in the publication, Africa Demos.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa and North America

1500. Why Do Some Legislators Go To Court? - Congress and the Lawsuit against President Reagan for Noncompliance with the War Powers Resolution

Author:: Jesus Velasco
Publication Date:: 01-1992
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the U.S. Congress became very concerned about the increasing role played by the President in foreign affairs. On November 7, 1973, and as a mechanism to diminish the power achieved by the Chief Executive in international matters, Congress passed the War Powers Resolution (WPR) over Richard Nixon's veto. The basic aim of the law was to prevent the President from unilaterally introducing the armed forces abroad without congressional authorization. In so doing, Congress sought "to fulfill the intent of the framers of the American Constitution."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

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