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2211. Asylum Migration and Implications for Countries of Origin

Author:
Khalid Koser and Nicholas Van Hear
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to synthesize what is known about the influence of asylum migration on countries of origin. It combines an analysis of data, a review of the literature and empirical examples from our own research. In the first section we consider the effects of the absence of refugees on countries of origin, focusing on the scale of movements, the characteristics of refugees, where they go and their length of time in exile. In the second section, we review the evidence about the influence of asylum-seekers and refugees on their country of origin from exile. Third, we consider the implications for countries of origin of the return of asylum-seekers and refugees. The conclusion acknowledges the limited state of current knowledge and draws out some policy implications.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Migration

2212. Aid Disaggregation, Endogenous Aid and the Public Sector in Aid-Recipient Economies: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
George Mavrotas and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper examines the impact of different aid types, namely project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid on the fiscal sector of the aid-recipient economy by using time-series data for Côte d'Ivoire over the period 1975–99. Empirical results obtained by estimating correctly the solution of the theoretical model show that when a single value (or aggregated) for aid is used, foreign aid is fully consumed in the case of Côte d'Ivoire. However, results obtained under the assumption of aid heterogeneity clearly suggest that the government responds differently according to the nature of the aid inflows. Our approach sheds plenty of light on how the aid-recipient government reacts to different categories of foreign aid inflows and the empirical findings clearly demonstrate the importance of the aid disaggregation approach for delving deeper into aid effectiveness issues.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

2213. Financial Sector Development — Futile or Fruitful? An Examination of the Determinants of Savings in Sri Lanka

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia

2214. Financial Sector Reforms and Savings Mobilization in Zambia

Author:
George Mavrotas and Samuel Manzele Maimbo
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper explores the relationship between financial sector reforms and savings mobilization in Zambia. Although there exists an extensive literature on financial sector development and savings levels in developing countries, there does not seem to exist satisfactory work on the above nexus for sub-Saharan African countries, particularly Zambia. Along these lines, the paper examines the linkages between the financial reforms of the early 1990s and savings mobilization. It considers the characteristics of banks and non-bank financial institutions, especially micro finance institutions, and savings levels and identifies problems associated with the relatively poor performance of savings in recent years and concludes with a set of policy guidelines for strengthening savings mobilization, highlighting the expected effect on povertyreducing growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nordic Nations

2215. Savings and Financial Sector Development: Panel Cointegration Evidence from Africa

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper uses different measures of financial sector development for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 17 African countries to examine the impact of financial sector development on private savings. An innovative econometric methodology is also employed related to a series of cointegration tests within a panel. This is an important contribution since traditional panel data analysis adopted in previous studies suffers from serious heterogeneity bias problems. The empirical results obtained vary considerably among countries in the panel, thus highlighting the importance of using different measures of financial sector development rather than a single indicator. The evidence is rather inconclusive, although in most of the countries in the sample a positive relationship between financial sector development and private savings seems to hold. The empirical analysis also suggests that a change in government savings is offset by an opposite change in private savings in most of the countries in the panel, thus confirming the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. Liquidity constraints do not seem to play a vital role in most of the African countries in the group, since the relevant coefficient is negative and significant in only a small group of countries
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

2216. The Composition of Aid and the Fiscal Sector in an Aid-Recipient Economy: A Model

Author:
George Mavrotas and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Building on recent work in the fiscal response literature, the present paper develops a new fiscal response model, which, for the first time in the relevant literature, combines the ideas of both endogenous and disaggregated aid. We endogenized aid on the grounds that the recipient government has some influence over aid disbursements. Regarding aid disaggregation, it is argued that each of the main four categories of aid, namely project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid may exert different effects on the recipient economy. Furthermore, in case the preferences of the aid-recipient government are higher for some of these types of aid, neglecting aid disaggregation would lead to aggregation bias in the results and conclusions. The model adds an important new dimension to the vast aid effectiveness literature and calls for further modelling as well as empirical work in this promising research area so that significant policy implications can be derived.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty

2217. Conflict and Peace-building in Africa: The Regional Dimensions

Author:
Timothy Shaw
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Contemporary Africa reveals a range of causes, consequences and responses to conflicts which are increasingly interrelated as well as regional in character, as around the Great Lakes/Horn. Their economic and non-state features are undeniable, leading to some promising possibilities in terms of 'track-two' diplomacy both on and off the continent, such as the 'Kimberley Process' around 'blood' diamonds. Development corridors and trans-frontier peace-parks may also constitute innovative ways to moderate and contain conflict. As often, changeable African cases challenge established assumptions, analyses and policies, such as those around civil society, governance, regional and security studies.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Peace Studies, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

2218. Food Aid and Informal Insurance

Author:
Stefan Dercon and Pramila Krishnan
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Households in developing countries use a variety of informal mechanisms to cope with risk, including mutual support and risk-sharing. These mechanisms cannot avoid that they remain vulnerable to shocks. Public programs in the form of food aid distribution and food-for-work programs are meant to protect vulnerable households from consumption and nutrition downturns by providing a safety net. In this paper we look into the extent to which food aid helps to smooth consumption by reducing the impact of negative shocks, taking into account informal risk-sharing arrangements. Using panel data from Ethiopia, we find that despite relatively poor targeting of the food aid, the programs contribute to better consumption outcomes, largely via intra-village risk sharing.
Topic:
Development, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

2219. Health, Shocks and Poverty Persistence

Author:
Stefan Dercon and John Hoddinott
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we review the evidence on the impact of large shocks, such as drought, on child and adult health, with particular emphasis on Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Our focus is on the impact of shocks on long-term outcomes, and we ask whether there are intrahousehold differences in these effects. The evidence suggests substantial fluctuations in body weight and growth retardation in response to shocks. While there appears to be no differential impact between boys and girls, adult women are often worse affected by these shocks. For children, there is no full recovery from these losses, affecting adult health and education outcomes, as well as lifetime earnings. For adults, there is no evidence of persistent effects from transitory shocks in our data.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia

2220. A Holistic Perception of Foreign Financing of Developing Countries' Private Sectors: Analysis and Description of Structure and Trends

Author:
Matthew Odedokun
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The study seeks to identify donor-specific factors that cause donors to delay aid disbursement, and to apply a double standard in dealing with the non-compliance of a recipient with regard to aid conditionalities, a practice that promotes uncertainty in the receipt of aid. Annual panel data over 1970-2000 for the 22 members of OECD's DAC donor group are employed in the empirical study. Our findings suggest that the proportion of pledged aid being disbursed, which shows an increasing trend, is positively affected by the extent to which aid is procurement-tied and by the size of the donor government's expenditure in relation to GDP. On the other hand, the proportion of aid commitments being disbursed, which appears lower for the G7 countries, is negatively influenced by factors such as abundant donor generosity, the predominance of grants in total aid, the specific targeting of aid to lower-income recipients, high growth in donor economy, as well as high level of checks and balances, and polarization between the executive and legislative branches of government in the donor country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization