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1. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:
Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:
11-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

3. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:
Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

4. European Solar PV Manufacturing: Terminal Decline or Hope for a Rebirth?

Author:
Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are booming in Europe (and in other parts of the world), the local industry is closing down. Over the past two years, the European installed solar PV capacity has been multiplied by two. On the other hand, the remaining European manufacturers of solar PV panels are dying. Installed solar PV capacities are experiencing an unprecedented increase in Europe: in two years, they have been multiplied by two with 60 gigawatts (GW) added in 2023. However, local solar PV manufacturers are not benefiting from it as the Chinese competition is knocking them down. Structurally much more competitive, prices of Chinese solar panels have further decreased by 42% in 2023 – making it difficult even for some Chinese companies to survive and forcing many of the remaining European manufacturers out of the market. This situation fragilizes Europe’s strategic autonomy and decarbonization. Covid-19-like disruption or an aggression against Taiwan would leave the continent without any supply. American manufacturers are also flexing their muscles with the aggressive Inflation Reduction Act. Europe’s answer, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), a tougher approach to China’s imports and national support measures, could create a new generation of solar PV manufacturers in Europe.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, Decarbonization, Strategic Autonomy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Xi Jinping’s Visit to France: Stumbling Blocks Pile Up on the Path of Bilateral Cooperation

Author:
Marc Julienne
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
On May 6 and 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to France, his first to Europe since 2019 and the Covid-19 pandemic. Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping will celebrate Franco-Chinese friendship and the sixtieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between their two countries. It comes at a time when the bilateral relationship is officially perceived as positive on both sides, especially after the French President’s visit to China in April 2023. However, beneath the diplomatic varnish, obstacles are piling up, and the space for cooperation between the two countries is receding. Of the four major areas of cooperation on the visit’s agenda – Ukraine, economic relations, human and cultural exchanges, and global challenges – the first three are already facing significant limitations. Beyond the strictly bilateral relationship, the two heads of state have radically different visions of and for Europe. Finally, there is a number of issues that remain absent from the discussions, which are not likely to ease tensions: the Taiwan Strait, nuclear arms control and Chinese interference in Europe. They will need to be addressed sooner or later.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Emmanuel Macron, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and France

6. Power and Financial Interdependence

Author:
Brad Setser
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage. Many in the United States (US) are concerned about indebtedness to its primary strategic rival, and the risks posed by a sudden Chinese withdrawal from US financial markets. US policymakers actively sought to encourage China’s top leadership not to withdraw financing from the market for US Agency securities in the run-up to the global financial crisis. Yet China also sees risks in this unbalanced financial relationship. Chinese policymakers have expressed concern about the domestic political consequences of losses on either their Treasury or Agency holdings and actively have sought to diversify China’s reserves – including by substituting the risk of lending to developing economies for the visibility associated with large holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. China increasingly worries that its dollar holdings and the dollar’s global role increase its vulnerability to potential financial sanctions. Both parties thus worry about the possibility that financial interdependence can be weaponized yet find it hard to extricate themselves from the inevitability of financial interdependence absent a clean break from an entrenched pattern of trade imbalances.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Finance, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

7. The Prospects of Indonesia’s Nickel Boom Amidst a Systemic Challenge from Coal

Author:
Thibault Michel
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional political and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation. Over the last 20 years, Indonesia’s economy has been characterized by very dynamic growth, massive increases in its electricity demand, and coal consumption and exports. Hence, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on a steady growth trajectory, although the country has committed to lowering them by 32% (unconditional) or 41% (conditional) by 2030. With its Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership application, occurring in the context of global energy transition requirements and geopolitical confrontations, Indonesia is today at a crossroads. Indonesia has 42% of the world’s nickel reserves, as well as substantial reserves of copper, gold, tin, and, notably, coal. This wealth in natural resources has given the mining industry crucial importance in Indonesia’s economic growth and has recently taken an even more prominent place: Indonesia has managed to become the world’s largest nickel producer within just a few years, as its share in global nickel extraction grew from 5% in 2015 to 50% in 2023. The country is also the world’s third copper ore exporter. Coal and energy transition minerals have progressively replaced oil and gas in Indonesian exports. Between 2011 and 2023, oil and gas exports fell by nearly two-thirds and their share in the national exports decreased from 20% to 6%. In 2023, export revenues from copper were larger than those of oil and equal to gas earnings. Yet, having major mineral deposits and mining activities is no longer considered sufficient by the Indonesian government. So far, the mineral industry’s growth has relied hugely on Chinese investments and on low-added-value activities, especially in pyrometallurgy processing. Diversification of trade partners and expansion into new, entire value chains is, therefore, a key objective for the Indonesian government. Indonesia is seeking to boost trade with the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and even the Eurasian Economic Union. However, negotiations over respective agreements are currently encountering hurdles due to American legislation (the Inflation Reduction Act and Foreign Entities of Concern status), which could seriously threaten Indonesian exports of battery mineral components to the US market while they also face hurdles to entering the EU due to environmental regulations. The second part of Indonesia’s strategy focuses on the development of new industrial segments of value chains: refining facilities, hydrometallurgical processing plants, battery factories, etc. To develop these activities, the Indonesian government is using two main tools: the divestment of foreign companies in local firms and export bans on crude ore exports. Such bans have been introduced for nickel in 2020 and for bauxite in 2023, while they are expected for copper in 2024 and perhaps even later for tin. Indonesia is today also confronted with the negative repercussions of mining activities on its soil, including protests over the lack of safety in its mines and smelters, citizens’ expropriations, the presence of indigenous tribes on mining sites, and, above all, damage to the environment. Such damage also has its roots in the substantial amounts of energy used to feed smelters, which mostly rely on the use of coal. Decarbonizing Indonesia’s economy has thus become a central challenge for the country, where the consequences of climate change are already palpable on the archipelago’s soil, with extreme weather events and the sinking of the capital city – Jakarta – as sea levels rise. To carry out the tremendous transformation towards net-zero emissions while ensuring steady and sustainable development, the country has signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership and prepared decarbonization scenarios within this framework. Key priorities in the coming years include renewable energy deployment, grid development and an early phase-out of coal. Deploying renewable energy sources as well as large and resilient grids is made more difficult by the country’s geography. The archipelago includes 17,000 islands, some of them being undeveloped, hard to access and far away from each other. Furthermore, the levelized costs of solar and wind power are currently high in Indonesia compared with other developing countries, while public subsidies for coal do not favor low carbon generation sources. If the two first points are thus very challenging, the last one appears to be the hardest, considering the Indonesian economy’s tremendous dependency on coal. Concerns are therefore rising about Indonesia’s ability and even willingness to pursue a genuine, albeit differentiated decarbonization pathway. There are also many questions regarding Indonesia’s mineral trade strategy. New bans on crude ore exports are expected to come into force, while new mining and mineral processing operations are under development across the archipelago, as quantities of nickel produced in the country are at historic highs. This extraordinary increase in nickel production, concomitant with a global economic slowdown, has resulted in a sharp fall in nickel prices, with nickel losing half of its value between January 2023 and February 2024. As a result, many producers are finding themselves in danger, especially in Australia or New Caledonia. While there could be a deliberate strategy to flood the markets and neutralize competition, notably by Chinese companies that control 75% of the global nickel supply (mainly from Indonesia but also from the Philippines), the country faces serious dilemmas. Indonesia’s oil and gas production is diminishing, and it increasingly relies on nickel exports and higher nickel prices for its economic stability, with coal also remaining very important. Indonesia’s resource nationalism and industrial strategy, which include attracting foreign investments, notably via its OECD membership pledge, require a credible pathway to reduce the carbon footprint of its electricity generation. Among the pathways towards both decarbonization and the development of industrial battery value chains, three steps could be considered: Deploying renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) power and offshore wind farms, as well as progressively transferring subsidies from coal to renewable energy sources. Developing a clean battery industry based on high environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria and on the wealth of Indonesia’s subsoil, which includes most of the metals used in battery manufacturing. Protecting climate and biodiversity by favoring innovative solutions for mining waste management and upholding high ESG standards.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Electricity, Coal, Lithium, Minerals, Energy Transition, and Nickel
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

8. Understanding the Role of Women in Nigeria’s Non-State Armed Groups and Security Architecture

Author:
Michael Nwankpa
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian government after successive military regimes, it has continued to face enormous challenges to its legitimacy and monopoly of the use of force. Protest groups, social movements, and non-state armed groups have emerged over the years to demand good governance in some cases and, in other extreme cases, secession, self-determination, and subversion of Nigeria’s secular political system. Many groups have been willing to take up arms against the state to pursue their objectives. Men are usually the significant actors in these armed groups, while most women are considered victims. However, since 2014, when Boko Haram started deploying female suicide bombers and mobilizing more and more girls and women in its terrorist strategies, women’s role in Nigeria’s armed conflicts and their capacity to use violence have gained visibility. Despite this, ascertaining the role of women (mainly whether they occupy positions of power and can perpetrate violence) in non-state armed groups’ activities against the Nigerian state remains difficult, judging by the overwhelmingly male-dominated recipients of the government’s amnesty and deradicalization programs. Relying on interviews with key respondents, this paper fills this gap by interrogating the role of women as victims or perpetrators in Boko Haram and Niger Delta insurgencies, Nigeria’s two foremost insurgencies since the return to democracy in 1999, as well as engaging with the prospect of an effective legislative and policy response that is negotiated by increasing the number of women in security and political leadership positions.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Women, Disarmament, Boko Haram, Armed Conflict, Amnesty, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

9. South Korea’s Emergence as a Defense Industrial Powerhouse

Author:
Wooyeal Paik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In recent years, South Korea’s ascent in the global arms market has been remarkable. This surge, particularly amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, has captured the attention of security watchers worldwide. This paper delves into the intricacies of the South Korean defense industry’s rapid emergence, wherein arms sales skyrocketed to 17.3 billion USD in 2022, and provides an in-depth analysis of its portfolio, capacity, and the rationales guiding its development over the last five decades. It explores how South Korea has capitalized on critical opportunities, including overcoming steep barriers to entry to major contracts with Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland. It sheds light on South Korea’s competitive technologies, mass production capacity, and cost-effectiveness, and addresses the crucial role played by the government’s diplomatic support and coordination with key allies and partners. Against that backdrop, it concludes with some implications for the global defense industry and security architecture.
Topic:
Security, Defense Industry, Armament, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Poland

10. The Future of Nuclear Proliferation after the War in Ukraine

Author:
Nicholas L. Miller
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In the context of deep changes to the international security environment, especially the war in Ukraine, the risks of nuclear proliferation seem quite high, especially in the Middle East and East Asia. Four categories of factors have been identified that might trigger an escalation. Firstly, changes in the international security environment, including heightened competition among major powers, could increase pressure for proliferation in regions like Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Secondly, the declining ability of the United States to enforce non-proliferation regimes may lead allies to seek nuclear capabilities due to concerns over U.S. reliability. Thirdly, failures by nuclear powers to uphold disarmament commitments and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could undermine non-proliferation norms. Lastly, the war in Ukraine highlights the potential use of nuclear threats in conflicts, reinforcing the perception of nuclear weapons as crucial for national security. While there are reasons to anticipate growing proliferation risks, historical precedent suggests that these risks can be managed. Concerns over U.S. reliability and disarmament failures have been addressed through coercion and reassurance in the past. Additionally, the impact of conventional wars supported by nuclear deterrence has been contained. While some risk factors are novel, such as the decline of the U.S. nuclear industry and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, their decisive impact remains uncertain. The implications for the Middle East and East Asia vary. Allies like Japan and South Korea may be convinced to remain non-nuclear due to U.S. security assurances, while adversaries like Iran could be incentivized to pursue nuclear capabilities amid declining effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it may pressure Saudi Arabia to follow suit, potentially leading to regional proliferation dynamics. Thus, great powers and the international community need to step in to manage proliferation triggers by maintaining a focus on nonproliferation in their statecraft.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

11. India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating

Author:
Aleksei Zakharov
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. Moscow and New Delhi have demonstrated divergent approaches to the advancement of their strategic partnership. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. India’s record imports of Russian crude and other commodities, at times in defiance of Western sanctions, have allowed for a considerable boost in bilateral trade. While this “oil connection” may benefit both the Indian and Russian economies, it should not be misperceived as a leap forward in partnership. The structural challenges appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties. Furthermore, their geopolitical understanding is waning, and their defense cooperation is currently in a state of limbo. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, and India

12. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Francesco Siccardi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

13. Iraq’s Development Road: Geopolitics, Rentierism, and Border Connectivity

Author:
Harith Hasan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iraq’s Development Road project aims to create an Iraqi transborder transportation network connecting the Persian Gulf with Türkiye. This network would enhance Iraq’s geopolitical status as a trade corridor and provide financial returns, reducing the state’s reliance on hydrocarbons. However, the project faces obstacles, including challenges of financing and implementation, widespread corruption, the potential for insecurity and instability in Iraq, and the fact that rival transborder projects in the region mean countries may work against its success.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

14. Tunisia’s Transformation Into a Transit Hub: Illegal Migration and Policy Dilemmas

Author:
Hamza Meddeb and Fakhreddine Louati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Due to structural economic, climate, and social crises in the Sahel, Tunisia has emerged as a key transit point for sub-Saharan African migrants and asylum seekers aiming to reach Europe. This has fueled a migration economy in Tunisia. Caught between Tunisia’s attempts to leverage migration to pressure the European Union (EU) on the one hand and the EU’s securitization of migration on the other, sub-Saharan African migrants find themselves trapped in a complex web of challenges.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Reform, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

15. Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus

Author:
Artyom Shraibman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy on Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, an inexorably deeper dependence on Moscow, and the glaring absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decisionmaking. This paper proposes a different paradigm for approaching the issue. Instead of passively reacting to Minsk’s actions, the West should broaden its planning horizon and create more specific incentives for Belarus to follow a different trajectory in the future. The overriding goal of a more proactive Western strategy should be the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus that is no longer fully dominated by Moscow in the military and political realms. Such an ambitious goal would have tangible and lasting benefits for the new European security landscape amid the prospect of a long war in Ukraine. Skepticism in Western policy circles about the viability of such a scenario is entirely understandable. Yet it is not entirely clear whether Western policymakers have registered the significant differences between Russia and Belarus at the societal level and divergent strategic interests of the Russian and Belarusian regimes. At the same time, it is essential for Western policymakers to keep their expectations in check and to avoid an overestimation of their capabilities. The Belarusian crisis cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future by Western efforts alone. Moreover, there should be no illusions about the fact that Belarus, much like Ukraine, holds a special place in the worldview of the Russian ruling elite and President Vladimir Putin personally. The Kremlin’s long-standing obsession with keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) away from Russia’s borders plays into the same attachment to keeping the Belarusian regime in as tight an embrace as possible. Therefore, until Moscow either changes its foreign policy priorities under a new leadership or simply becomes unable to keep Minsk under its control, it would be naïve to expect that the Russian leadership will simply offer any Belarusian government greater leeway to shift its geopolitical orientation. At the same time, it is conceivable that a qualitative increase in military assistance to Ukraine and a more effective economic pressure campaign against Russia could disrupt Belarus’s trajectory and make Minsk more amenable to the incentives that the West can already offer. But an overnight breakthrough seems highly unlikely. This paper, therefore, focuses on more realistic recommendations with longer-term effects.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

16. Exploring Law Enforcement Hacking as a Tool Against Transnational Cyber Crime

Author:
Gavin Wilde and Emma Landi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In terms of revenue, 2023 will go down as a record-breaking year for ransomware, with over a billion dollars in payments going to hackers.1 The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reports a record $12.5 billion lost to cyber crime more broadly over the course of that year.2 As the quantities of affected users and organizations, payoff amounts, critical services, and pilfered sensitive data continue to rise, Western capitals have in recent years come to treat transnational cyber crime as a major national security concern. Because cyber criminals often operate from third countries where prosecution or extradition are unlikely, policymakers often look to military and intelligence services as the best (or only) entities capable of operationally disrupting cyber crime syndicates. Yet another growing trend challenges this notion: Western law enforcement agencies (LEAs) also have been expanding their own abilities to cross both technical and national boundaries to take on cyber criminals. This trend is creating new opportunities and challenges for both domestic and international cyber policy.
Topic:
Crime, Science and Technology, Law Enforcement, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:
Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, and South Africa

18. The Buildup to a Crisis: Current Tensions and Future Scenarios for Tunisia

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Hachemi Alaya, and Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Tunisia has been living beyond its means since 2011. External support and credit flowed into the country after the 2010–2011 uprising to support its nascent democracy, but this funding ended up largely financing a consumption boom that is unsustainable. To make matters worse, macroeconomic and political instability have begun to deeply harm the country’s productive capacity. The risk of a serious financial crisis has risen and corrective action is needed to ward it off. Tunisia’s political system should be able to avoid such catastrophic outcomes. Most reasonable people agree that the risks are rising and that something needs to be done. However, the disagreement is over magnitude, timing, and the type of program required to address the country’s problems. A hard economic adjustment risks unleashing a sociopolitical crisis. Not engaging in a correction, however, may well engender a future economic meltdown. Buying time is easiest politically, but it often means only postponing the crisis, leading to an even larger explosion. The challenge is to find the narrow path to escape a crisis by generating confidence in a national program that is politically acceptable and that can lead to a brighter future. Faced with these negative dynamics—the lack of sustainability and economic regression—economic agents might not merely adjust to the new normal. Instead, they might try to push the burden elsewhere in the economy and by so doing unleash more destructive forces. Think of society, with its networked organizations, as a hydraulic system. As pressure mounts, weaker parts of the network are at risk. Pushing pressure out from one part, instead of addressing the root cause of the problem, only leads to more pressure on other parts. Ultimately, the system will burst at its most vulnerable point. Typically, deterioration is not linear. Pressure builds up in invisible ways until the system explodes in a generalized crisis. There are several ways in which this can happen: foreign exchange reserves are used up slowly until a run takes place and the currency collapses; financing the state’s losses drains the private sector, reducing investment, until there is a collapse in growth; taxes are raised or services reduced, or both, leading to a social explosion; fiscal losses are financed with new loans (or arrears) until creditors dry up, and printing money remains the only solution, leading to hyperinflation; or banks keep lending to the state until depositors lose confidence in the banking sector and there is a bank run. What is destroyed will have to be rebuilt from scratch at great cost. It is in this context that Carnegie’s new Tunisia Sustainability Lab is beginning its work. The objective is twofold. First, the lab will monitor the risks ahead and alert the public about developments. It will do so by preparing a regular scorecard of Tunisia’s economic, financial, fiscal, external, and sociopolitical domains. Second, the lab will track proposals advanced by national and international parties on possible pathways to progress, reporting on and analyzing initiatives to avoid the worst of them. So far, several International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposals have been rejected by the Tunisian authorities. There are alternative proposals, some outlined by civil society actors, but they have not materialized. To support social dialogue, we will highlight the various initiatives and try to evaluate their impact. We will also develop scenarios to assess macroeconomic trends, which we will update over time.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

19. Tracing the Roots of China’s AI Regulations

Author:
Matt Sheehan
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2021 and 2022, China became the first country to implement detailed, binding regulations on some of the most common applications of artificial intelligence (AI). These rules formed the foundation of China’s emerging AI governance regime, an evolving policy architecture that will affect everything from frontier AI research to the functioning of the world’s second-largest economy, from large language models in Africa to autonomous vehicles in Europe. U.S. political leaders often warn against letting China “write the rules of the road” in AI governance. But if the United States is serious about competing for global leadership in AI governance, then it needs to actually understand what it is competing against. That requires examining the nuts and bolts of both China’s AI regulations and the policy process that shaped them. This paper is the second in a series breaking down China’s AI regulations and pulling back the curtain on the policymaking process shaping them. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese government started that process with the 2021 rules on recommendation algorithms, an omnipresent use of the technology that is often overlooked in international AI governance discourse. Those rules imposed new obligations on companies to intervene in content recommendations, granted new rights to users being recommended content, and offered protections to gig workers subject to algorithmic scheduling. The Chinese party-state quickly followed up with a new regulation on “deep synthesis,” the use of AI to generate synthetic media such as deepfakes. Those rules required AI providers to watermark AI-generated content and ensure that content does not violate people’s “likeness rights” or harm the “nation’s image.” Together, these two regulations also created and amended China’s algorithm registry, a regulatory tool that would evolve into a cornerstone of the country’s AI governance regime. Contrary to popular conception in the rest of the world, China’s AI governance regime has not been created by top-down edicts from CCP leadership. President Xi Jinping and other top CCP leaders will sometimes give high-level guidance on policy priorities, but they have not been the key players when it comes to shaping China’s AI regulations. Instead, those regulations have been the product of a dynamic and iterative policymaking process driven by a mix of actors from both inside and outside the Chinese party-state. Those actors include mid-level bureaucrats, academics, technologists, journalists, and policy researchers at platform tech companies. Through a mix of public advocacy, intellectual debate, technical workshopping, and bureaucratic wrangling, these actors laid the foundations for China’s present and future AI regulations. This paper traces the progression of these regulations through the “policy funnel” (see figure 1) of Chinese AI governance. For both recommendation algorithms and deep synthesis rules, the initial spark for the regulation came from long-standing CCP concerns about the creation and dissemination of online content. For the former, the rise of the algorithmically driven news app Toutiao threatened the CCP’s ability to set a unified narrative and choose which stories are pushed to readers. In the case of deep synthesis, online face swap videos grabbed the attention of the Chinese public and led government regulators to consider the threat of deepfakes. Over the course of 2017–2020, these concerns made their way through China’s bureaucracy. Regulators took a series of stopgap measures in specific applications, while also tasking policy analysts and government-adjacent technical organizations with exploring different regulatory interventions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, and Asia

20. What works for working couples? Work arrangements, maternal labour supply, and the division of home production

Author:
Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We document how a change to work arrangements reduces the child penalty in labor supply for women, and that the consequent more equal distribution of household income does not translate into a more equal division of home production between mothers and fathers. The Australian 2009 Fair Work Act explicitly entitled parents of young children to request a (reasonable) change in work arrangements. Leveraging variation in the timing of the law, timing of childbirth, and the bite of the law across different occupations and industries, we establish three main results. First, the Fair Work Act was used by new mothers to reduce their weekly working hours without renouncing their permanent contract, hence maintaining a regular schedule. Second, with this work arrangement, working mothers’ child penalty declined from a 47 percent drop in hours worked to a 38 percent drop. Third, while this implies a significant shift towards equality in the female- and male-shares of household income, we do not observe any changes in the female (disproportionate) share of home production.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Work, and Home Production
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

21. Transitional justice and women’s representation in peacebuilding: Myanmar and the case for Feminist Foreign Policy

Author:
Nang Moet Moet and Clara Bradley
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
February 2024 marks three years since the start of the military coup which ignited Myanmar’s Spring Revolution. For the first time in the nation’s history, women have been at the forefront of the resistance, making up over 60 percent of the resistance movement.i The unprecedented number of women in the movement signals women’s refusal to live under patriarchal military rule. The modest yet critical gains made towards gender equality during the democratic period enabled a generation of women to see the value of their participation in broader functions of society. Reverting back to military rule would not just hinder progress on gender equality, it threatens the hardwon fundamental rights of women and girls. In a country shaped by decades of militarization, this war, like those before it, has compounded women’s experience of patriarchal violence. As Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) and the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) inch closer to defeating the Myanmar military (herein referred to as the ‘junta’), attention is turning to post-coup peace and nation building processes. At this important juncture in Myanmar’s political history, women are demanding adequate representation and genuine participation in peacebuilding processes, including transitional justice initiatives that adequately address violence against women in conflict. Over the decades of political instability, women have been repeatedly told that a democratic union must come before gender equality.ii The de-prioritisation of women’s participation in public life is embodied in the Constitution 2008, which clearly proscribes that ‘nothing in this section shall prevent appointment of men to positions that are naturally suitable for men only.’iii This subjugation of women’s rights to political stability is mirrored in traditional foreign policy approaches that prioritise the security of the nation state, rather than the security of the individuals within that state. A feminist foreign policy approach inverts the traditional hierarchy, understanding that security is not possible absent the conditions required for all people to flourish. Without addressing the structural roots of pervasive violence that has oppressed both women and ethnic minorities in Myanmar society for decades, there can be no durable peace. Countries that have adopted a feminist foreign policy – or those with a values-based foreign policy such as Australia – must invest in, and advocate for, the inclusion of women from all ethnic groups in future peace and transitional justice processes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Women, Transitional Justice, Feminism, and Representation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

22. Climate action: Implications for factor market reallocation

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper considers climate policies, not from the perspective of their environmental impacts, but rather their likely effects on labor and investments. While the aggregate impact of the green transition on jobs and investment may be modest, it will require significant reallocation of labor and capital within and across industries. Although the green transition brings new opportunities for employment and investment in renewable technologies, many workers and communities tied to the fossil fuel industry may not benefit from these advances due to skills mismatch and geographic constraints. Both the United States and the European Union acknowledge the importance of achieving “climate justice” and “leaving no one behind” in their decarbonization efforts. However, current policies and resources in the United States may fall short, with inadequate assistance reaching too many communities and a narrow focus on green jobs. In Europe, while the Just Transition Fund complements existing programs, effective implementation of place-based policies remains challenging due to the need for specific, localized responses.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Labor Issues, European Union, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

23. Trade policy, industrial policy, and the economic security of the European Union

Author:
Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Out of fear about its economic security, the European Union is transitioning to a new form of international economic and policy engagement. This paper explores some of the major trade issues surrounding the bloc’s economic security, the role of trade and industrial policies in achieving its objectives, and some of the economic costs of doing so. It begins by explaining why economic security is suddenly playing such a prominent role and providing early evidence to motivate these government interventions. It then turns to a case study—new policies associated with China’s exports of electric vehicles and graphite—that highlights the difficult choices and practical challenges the European Union faces in tailoring policy to address concerns over economic security. The paper then introduces the domestic policy instruments that the European Union, its member states, and other governments are pursuing to address economic security, including stockpiling and inventory management, investment or production subsidies, tariffs, export controls, and regulations on foreign investment, as well as the scope for selective international cooperation over such policy instruments. The paper concludes with some caveats about abandoning interdependence and lessons from history.
Topic:
Security, Industrial Policy, European Union, Trade Policy, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Europe

24. Lessons from China's fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Tianlei Huang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Expansionary fiscal policy helped China's economy grow in 2020, a year in which most economies contracted because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid a broader pivot to policy and regulatory tightening, fiscal support was withdrawn in 2021. In 2022, government budget turned expansionary to ensure economic stability ahead of the Communist Party Congress, but the execution fell short and fiscal policy ended up being weaker than planned. A recurrent problem during the pandemic, however, was that local governments did not fully spend their budgets. Aside from the sharp drop in local governments' land sale revenue in 2022, which dragged down their spending, it was also caused by local governments' failure to fully utilize their special bond quotas approved by the central government for capital investment. China's fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights four issues with implications for fiscal policy making. First, the government needs to avoid projecting unrealistically high land sale revenue in its budgets. Second, it needs to reconsider its problematic use of local-government special bond as a major fiscal stimulus instrument. Third, it needs to make sure its deficit, growth, and inflation targets are consistent. Last, Beijing needs to be more tolerant of higher fiscal deficits, at a minimum ensuring that overall fiscal spending grows at least as rapidly as nominal output.
Topic:
Budget, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
China and Asia

25. The effect of lawful crossing on unlawful crossing at the US southwest border

Author:
Michael A. Clemens
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
An increasing number of migrants attempt to cross the US Southwest border without obtaining a visa or any other prior authorization. 2.5 million migrants did so in 2023. In recent years, responding to this influx, US officials have expanded lawful channels for a limited number of these migrants to cross the border, but only at official ports of entry. These expanded lawful channels were intended to divert migrants away from crossing between ports of entry, by foot or across rivers, thereby reducing unlawful crossings. On the other hand, some have argued that expanding lawful entry would encourage more migrants to cross unlawfully. This study seeks to shed light on that debate by assessing the net effect of lawful channels on unlawful crossings. It considers almost 11 million migrants (men, women, and children) encountered at the border crossing the border without prior permission or authorization. Using statistical methods designed to distinguish causation from simple correlation, it finds that a policy of expanding lawful channels to cross the border by 10 percent in a given month causes a net reduction of about 3 percent in unlawful crossings several months later. Fluctuations in the constraints on lawful crossings can explain roughly 9 percent of the month-to-month variation in unlawful crossings. The data thus suggest that policies expanding access to lawful crossing can serve as a partial but substantial deterrent to unlawful crossing and that expanding access can serve as an important tool for more secure and regulated borders.
Topic:
Security, Migration, and Borders
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

26. Tackling the UK's regional economic inequality: Binding constraints and avenues for policy intervention

Author:
Anna Stansbury, Dan Turner, and Ed Balls
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper analyzes binding constraints to productivity growth in the United Kingdom’s regions outside London and the greater South East. These analyses challenge a number of common arguments about the UK’s regional economic inequality problem. The authors find little evidence consistent with the hypotheses (i) that low shares of university graduates remain the primary constraint on growth for the UK’s regions; (ii) that there is a generalized issue with access to finance for firms outside the South East; or (iii) that low or falling regional migration rates are to blame for the persistence of the UK’s regional economic inequalities. Instead, they find evidence consistent with (i) a specific relative shortage of STEM degrees; (ii) binding transport infrastructure constraints within major non-London conurbations; (iii) a failure of public innovation policy to support clusters beyond the South East, in particular through the regional distribution of public support for research and development (R&D); and (iv) missed opportunities for higher internal mobility due to London’s overheating housing market. The authors also find some suggestive evidence consistent with constraints on access to early-stage equity financing for high growth-potential small and medium-sized enterprises in certain regions.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Inequality, and Productivity
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

27. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen Hendrix
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the warming and cooling cycle in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that affects both global atmospheric and ocean conditions—is a driver of geopolitical risk at the global scale. Using nonlinear cross-convergent mapping, a technique for characterizing causal relationships in dynamic systems, it finds ENSO is causally related to geopolitical risk at the global level, but that finding is not replicated at the country level for countries whose economies are most strongly influenced by ENSO cycles. Put differently, ENSO-related geopolitical risk is an emergent phenomenon evident only at the Earth system level. Then, using monthly observations of ENSO and geopolitical risk, the paper reports a curvilinear, contemporaneous relationship between ENSO and risk, with La Niña conditions associated with lessened geopolitical risk relative to El Niño and neutral climate conditions. The effects are statistically and substantively significant, and the relationship is demonstrated to be stronger in more recent decades (post-1990). The effect for geopolitical risk of transitioning from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions is of similar magnitude to that of the outbreak of a major interstate war.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Politics, Geopolitics, Risk, Weather, and El Niño
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The Evolving Landscape of U.S. Economic Security: The Confluence of Trade, Technology, and National Security

Author:
Andrea Viski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the current evolution of U.S. economic security discourse to demonstrate the implications, challenges, and shortcomings of U.S. economic security tools and the catalyzing impact of technology. While component economic security considerations are broad and encompass issues from natural disaster planning to cybersecurity, this paper focuses specifically on the impact of trade and technology in the economic security context. It discusses the main influences and features of U.S. economic security policy as it relates to trade, technology, and the security of the supply chain. The paper includes sections on evolving notions of the dual-use concept; the need to manage and respond to technology flows with more effective strategies, and new foreign policy efforts and tools to strengthen economic security. The paper focuses on the trends forging the path for the United States to define economic security so closely with national security, and in exploring these trends, it delineates how the United States has implemented policies and adopted, reoriented, or created new policy tools designed to strengthen economic security. The paper also explores why the rapid evolution of emerging technologies has played such a defining role. Finally, the paper examines the effectiveness of the U.S. approach to economic security and its challenges and offers insights into how it can be strengthened in the future
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

29. Japanese Economic Security as “Derisking”

Author:
Kazuto Suzuki
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the concept of “derisking” and how the Japanese Economic Security Promotion Act (ESPA) has responded to it within the framework of deterrence theory. It explores how ESPA allows deterrence by denial against economic coercion by other states and is itself a derisking measure. It contends that deterrence by denial, which means reducing dependency and improving resilience, could include stockpiling strategic materials, diversifying sources of supply, developing alternative materials, and developing alternative products. However, this paper argues that there is a need to strengthen the mechanism for collaborative deterrence by denial, such as the “Coordination Platform” presented at the G7 Hiroshima Summit. As for other forms of deterrence, such as institutional deterrence and deterrence by punishment, their effectiveness is insufficient, and they face many implementation problems. Therefore, this paper argues that the most optimal derisking strategy at this point is the combination of ESPA and the “Coordination Platform” to strengthen the capabilities of deterrence by denial.
Topic:
Risk, Deterrence, Economic Security, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

30. Is Economic Security National Security? Defining South Korea’s Economic Security for Future Industries

Author:
June Park
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper explores how South Korea defines “economic security.” Amidst geopolitical turbulence, the framing of this concept by governments and policy circles around the globe is reflective of the changes in the global economy post-pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, two critical junctures that have revealed the geo-economic impact of weaponized interdependence. While the Biden administration has laid out U.S. policy intent to combine national security with economic security, specifically on future industries of dual-use nature ranging from chips to EVs, batteries, and generative AI, countries that are on the receiving end of policy implementation are formulating their response to the shifting geoeconomics. This paper unravels South Korea’s framing of economic security and policy response by analyzing legislation on future industries that is critical to the country’s economic growth and standing and the concerted efforts by the state bureaucracy and industry in shaping the concept. The paper draws specifically upon semiconductors in addition to other future industries that are central to the South Korean economy and related legislation in the South Korean National Assembly. It argues that South Korea’s policy response and framing of its economic security has more to do with the protection of industries for the future amid geopolitical turbulence and the reshuffling of global supply chains than traditional security issues related to the U.S.-ROK alliance. Moreover, public anxiety on the pressures toward U.S.-driven trilateral cooperation reveals concerns on a possible backlash from China and the lagging potential of Japan in future industries.
Topic:
National Security, Geopolitics, Industry, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

31. China’s Perspective on Economic Security

Author:
Audrye Wong
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper examines how Beijing views economic security as well as other countries’ actions in this realm. Economic security is not a new or foreign concept to Chinese thinkers and policymakers, but the emphases, concerns, and priorities have evolved, due in part to changes in the international environment as well as in China’s own economic and geopolitical situation. This paper examines how Chinese leaders and scholars have approached the definition and scope of economic security, as well as recent and proposed policy responses. It draws on a range of Chinese-language official documents and scholarly writings, as well as broader secondary source analyses. The paper explores that while Chinese discussions of economic security tend to be framed as ensuring economic development and stability, development is implicitly and explicitly linked to national security. Many writings emphasize that economics is the foundation for national strength (including military capabilities). As such, it is more than just economic survival and growth for the economy’s sake; it also has implications for China’s geopolitical position in the international order. In that respect, economic stability and national security may be hard to separate. Indeed, we see a resurgence in today’s rhetoric about the notions of development and security as inextricably linked, along with the need to coordinate the two—and in service of maintaining CCP rule and regime stability. Finally, the paper shows Beijing is taking concrete steps toward increased legalization and institutionalization of economic security measures. This represents a shift, at least in the domain of retaliatory countermeasures, from its usually more “informal” approach to economic coercion, which has afforded more flexibility and minimized political costs for the regime. At the same time, actual implementation has been relatively limited thus far.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, National Security, Trade Wars, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China and Asia

32. South Korea: Caught in the Crosshairs of U.S.−China Competition Over Semiconductors

Author:
Paul Triolo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper explores how countries with advanced semiconductor industries are caught in the middle of the growing U.S.-China competition in technology that is focused on advanced computing. Among them, South Korea and its national champions, Samsung and SK Hynix, have arguably incurred some of the most significant pressure. This paper explores how those firms have billions of dollars of sunk investment in China-based facilities producing cutting-edge memory, and the future of these facilities remains in doubt after a series of U.S. export control measures unleashed by the U.S. Commerce Department starting in October 2022. South Korean companies are also players in other parts of the global semiconductor supply chain, including semiconductor manufacturing tools, and China remains an important market for both components and electronic devices. This paper argues that each country caught between the United States and China in technology competition faces difficult trade-offs in determining how best to support its leading companies while navigating changing and often what is viewed as arbitrary decisions coming from Washington that have already significantly disrupted global supply chains. Finally, at the same time as U.S. export controls are having a major impact on the ability of South Korean companies to retain business operations and market access in China, major front-end manufacturers, particularly Samsung, are also looking to expand their operations in the United States and benefit from U.S. CHIPS Act funding. This paper argues that all of the above dynamics put South Korea in one of the more complex positions as the industry faces continued restructuring, buffeted by both export controls and industrial policies.
Topic:
Supply Chains, Economic Security, Semiconductors, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

33. The Raw Materials of Economic Security: South Korea’s Evolving Energy and Critical Minerals Policies in an Era of Disruption

Author:
James Bowen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper argues that resource security is central to South Korea’s broader economic security and President Yoon Suk-yeol’s Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region. The paper contends that postwar Korea has maintained an energy and minerals-intensive economy despite domestic resource scarcity and import dependence. Recent disruptions have, however, threatened the resilience of this relationship. These disruptions include COVID-19, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the escalating climate change crisis and energy transition, and the geoeconomic and geopolitical erosion of the liberal order. Korea’s most important energy security priority is diversifying its energy mix towards cleaner energy—what this paper calls “green security.” This will be a difficult task given the intense national dependence on fossil fuels and policymakers’ desire to avoid disrupting Korea’s manufacturing-heavy, export-focused development model. Korea’s idiosyncratic decarbonization pathway, including a strong presence of hydrogen and, under Yoon, a downgrading of renewables in favor of nuclear, could provide additional challenges. Critical minerals are another rising resource security concern for Seoul. The major priority is to accelerate the development and diversification of international supply chains, particularly away from China. A major obstacle to progress is intense competition across the value chain, influenced by disparate economic and strategic priorities. The paper argues that Seoul must find ways to manage its energy and critical minerals security challenges in a way that is consistent with its preferred development model. The alternative is to accept a new equilibrium in which it has less domestic dependence on foreign resources and on resources-intensive economic activity in aggregate.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Minerals, Economic Security, and Energy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

34. Economic Security and U.S.-China Competition: The View from North Korea

Author:
Rachel Minyoung Lee
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper argues that while North Korea does not discuss “economic security” in domestic contexts or have an established definition of the term, it thoroughly understands that the economy and national security are inseparable. North Korea is essentially unaffected by the typical economic issues that many major economies are grappling with in relation to economic security, but like other countries, it has closely tracked economic security developments and deepening U.S.-China strategic competition for potential political fallout and what opportunities and challenges that may generate. The paper shows that U.S.-China strategic competition has offered unique opportunities to North Korea, including China’s cover against fresh and existing sanctions against North Korea, and economic assistance. Moreover, deteriorating U.S.-China ties provide Pyongyang extra space to consider and put into motion alternative foreign and economic policy paths, namely, shifting away from its three-decade policy of nonalignment with China and normalization of relations with the United States. Also, China appears to be a factor in North Korea’s shift to a more conservative economic policy. Despite the opportunities presented by the U.S.-China divide, however, North Korea is wary of the risks of dependence on China and has tried to build economic resilience at home, for example by launching a national campaign on domestic production and recycling. North Korea’s somewhat cooler handling of China and its proportionately warm treatment of Russia since the Armistice Day celebrations in July is a clear example of North Korea’s China dilemma. This is where North Korea’s recent strengthening of ties with Russia comes into the picture. The paper contends that it is hard to conclude at this point whether North Korea’s moves are aimed at short-term, tactical gains or are part of a longer-term, strategic calculus, but we can be certain of this: it has just as much to gain or lose as any other country affected by economic security and U.S.-China strategic competition, though not in the same ways as other countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

35. Emerging public debt challenges in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Maureen Were
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s public debt burden remains a challenge to development. Key drivers of public debt include large-scale financing of infrastructure development, adverse impact of multiple shocks including COVID-19 pandemic, maturity mismatches, and high vulnerability to exchange rate and interest rate volatility. The tight financial conditions following interest rate hikes in advanced economies have exacerbated the debt burden and heightened debt sustainability risks. Half of the SSA low-income countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. Countries in debt distress include middle-income economies. Given the high cost of debt servicing and lack of fiscal space, achievement of sustainable development goals is in jeopardy. A long-term sustainable solution requires a multi-pronged approach. The G20 Common Framework for debt treatment remains limited in scope, coverage, and impact. More needs to be done including consideration for debt relief. Other strategies include access to long-term concessional finance, domestic resource mobilization, and improved efficiency in public spending and fiscal management.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Sustainability, Public Debt, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

36. Institutions and governance in Mozambique :A bird’s eye view based on existing databases

Author:
Ines A. Ferreira
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association; political participation; accountability and transparency; political instability and violence, and external relations; state legitimacy and political leadership; and governance and state capacity. Overall, the selected indicators point to similar trends within each dimension and suggest limited progress during the last decades. Still, it is fundamental that these insights and the scores presented by the indicators are put into context, and that we understand the historical path of Mozambique, the internal and external factors at play, and the fact that it takes time for progress achieved to be reflected in this type of data.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Accountability, Institutions, Judiciary, Instability, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

37. Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove, Rute Martins Caeiro, Rachel Coelho, Sam Jones, and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. Women bore the brunt of this regime, but in doing so often took on responsibilities traditionally reserved for men and engaged in active resistance strategies. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity, we explore the enduring impact of this exposure to forced cotton cultivation on present-day human and social capital, focusing specifically on rural southern Mozambique. Our estimation strategy relies on the arbitrarily defined historical borders of the concessions, which reflected the tendency of concessionaires to absorb as much territory as possible, often ignoring agronomic conditions. Drawing on bespoke individual-level survey data collected along the concession border, we find lower educational outcomes among women in former concession areas. However, this is counterbalanced by positive effects on social capital, in the form of higher levels of civil participation, more progressive attitudes towards gender norms, and an increased presence of women in leadership positions. These results suggest that exogenous ruptures that push women outside traditional boundaries can help to reinforce their role in society.
Topic:
History, Women, Colonialism, Human Capital, Social Capital, Forced Labor, and Cotton
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

38. What traders know: the (mis)perceptions of formal and informal cross-border traders

Author:
Paolo Falco and Eleanor Wiseman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
ross-border traders face a choice between official and unofficial border crossings. The latter allow them to evade taxes, but expose them to other risks, such as bribes, fines, and arrest. We investigate the perceptions of cross-border traders about the risks of trading officially vs unofficially at the border between Kenya and Uganda. We find that traders overestimate the risks of trading officially relative to the same risks when trading unofficially. In reality, the measured risks of trading through the official border are lower.
Topic:
Borders, Risk, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

39. Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis

Author:
Haroon Bhorat and Timothy Köhler
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Frequent electricity outages threaten to impede the benefits of expanded access achieved by many developing countries in recent decades. A large literature documents these negative effects, however almost none consider labour market effects. This paper merges labour force survey microdata with high-frequency electricity supply and demand data to provide the first estimates of the relationships between outages and labour market outcomes in South Africa, a country characterized by frequent, severe outages referred to as load shedding. Exploiting temporal variation in outage incidence and intensity, we find that load shedding is associated with significantly lower employment rates, working hours, and earnings on average. Employment appears more sensitive relative to intensive margin outcomes, threatening job creation and preservation efforts. These negative relationships, however, are not evident for low levels of load shedding, but their strength markedly increases with load shedding intensity. We document further heterogeneity by firm size and industry, highlighting the vulnerability of jobs in manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that the South African labour market is largely insensitive to relatively low levels of load shedding; however, high levels appear especially costly.
Topic:
Employment, Economy, Electricity, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

40. Labour market inequality in two Asian giants Indonesia and India compared

Author:
Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We examine the nature of labour market inequality in Indonesia and India, using a common conceptual approach drawing from the job ladder framework. In the framework, we differentiate between self-employment and wage-informal and between formal, upper tier informal, and lower tier informal jobs. We find that both countries have a large proportion of workers in lower tier jobs, though the importance of wage-employment is larger in Indonesia. There are more workers in formal wage-employment in Indonesia than India. There are also sharp disparities in the earnings of workers in different tiers of the labour market in Indonesia and India, and there is limited evidence of convergence of the earnings of the lower tier informal workers to that of formal workers, at least for Indonesia. We also find that gender and educational level are important correlates of work status in both countries. Females and less educated workers occupy the lower tiers of the labour markets in the two countries.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia, Indonesia, India, and Asia

41. Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries

Author:
Michele Di Maio, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza, Patricia Justino, and Cecilia Nardi
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We show that the Russia–Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. The effect is heterogeneous across countries and cell types: in line with our interpretation of the empirical findings, the effect is larger in countries that are net exporters of wheat and in cells that are rural. We also show that a higher price of wheat increases political violence more in countries that are low-income, fragile, and characterized by the presence of anti-government or terrorist groups, indicating that a higher value of crop production is more likely to fuel violence in areas that are poor or not politically stable.
Topic:
Political Violence, Instability, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Asia

42. Market power and merger control in South Africa

Author:
C. Friedrich Kreuser, Michael Kilumelume, and Rulof Burger
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We estimate structural, materials, and labour markups for the South African economy at the three-digit industry level for 2012–19. The fall in structural labour and materials markups found for the numerical majority of industries are generally isolated to smaller industries, with industries accounting for a higher proportion of sales generally experiencing smaller downward shifts. We show that materials-based markups are increasing over this period. Upward markup pressure in structural and labour markups are primarily driven by compositional shifts of surviving firms, while materials markup growth is driven by the average firm in a given sector. We show that merger intensity is positively related to structural markup growth, with a 1% increase in the proportion of cumulative mergers over 2013–18 being related to around a 0.27% increase in structural markup growth over the period from 2012 to 2019. We find that large vertical mergers are positively related to structural and materials markup growth while being negatively related to labour markup growth. Large horizontal mergers generally increase labour and structural markups.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Industry, and Mergers and Acquisitions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

43. A Vision for Regional – International Partnership for Gaza Rebuilding and Palestinian Economic Leap

Author:
Yitzhak Gal and Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The immense extent of destruction in the Gaza Strip caused by the 2023-2024 Gaza War, requires massive rebuilding. This paper sets a vision of a long-term economic rebuilding plan, which is aimed at ending the humanitarian crisis and creating a functioning and sustainable economy. The rebuilding of the Gazan economy, and the Palestinian economy at large, should be planned and designed as part of an international-regional political and economic vision of stabilizing, strengthening and improving Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab relations, in the broader context of strengthening stability and prosperity in the Middle East.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Political stability, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

44. EU Autonomy, the Brussels Effect, and the Rise of Global Economic Protectionism

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Brussels Effect, once emblematic of the EU’s alleged influence in shaping global regulations, has now become a factor contributing to global regulatory fragmentation. The EU must recalibrate its trajectory towards a liberal and rules-based trading order, prioritising widespread regulatory liberalisation to counteract the risks of global protectionism and regulatory spirals. A holistic approach, both internally and globally, is crucial to prevent regulatory and subsidy spirals on a global scale. This recalibration is essential to keep global markets open and enhance the EU’s own economic and technological competitiveness. In response to the 2008 financial crises, the EU underwent a shift in its approach to global trade, transitioning towards Strategic Autonomy. However, this gradual move away from a liberal global trade order has led to increased regulatory burdens and regulatory fragmentation, impacting businesses within and beyond the EU. The Brussels Effect, as denoted in this paper, highlights the EU’s signalling effect on other governments in considering and implementing regulations. This effect has contributed to increased trade restrictiveness and regulatory fragmentation globally. The EU’s insistence on “autonomy” and “European values” not only empowers others to follow suit, contributing to the rise in global protectionism, but also contradicts the EU’s historical support for open trade principles and its commitment to a highly competitive social market economy. A wealth of EU regulatory data reveals a stagnation and, in many cases, a regression in regulatory cooperation within the Single Market. This is evident from rising trade restrictiveness and a tendency towards increased legal fragmentation instead of convergence across the EU. The evolving regulatory acquis of the EU, coupled with insufficient cooperation and stalled trade agreements, poses risks beyond its borders. The EU’s paradigm shift towards autonomy contributes to global regulatory spirals and protectionist measures, particularly evident in services trade. Despite the EU’s historical commitment to harmonisation and liberalisation, many sectors, such as transport and logistics, telecoms, and digital services, have witnessed the imposition of new laws and rules that hinder trade. With the EU’s share of global GDP expected to decrease to 9% by 2050, there is a critical need for EU governments to enhance its regulatory capabilities and foster innovation. To wield influence in global economic diplomacy, EU policymakers must prioritise policies that unleash the collective ingenuity of individuals and businesses that help to maintain high levels of productivity, competitiveness, and prosperity.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Economy, Autonomy, Protectionism, and WTO
Political Geography:
Europe

45. German Industrial Competitiveness and the Metaverse

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robert Baker
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The metaverse is the next iteration of the internet as an immersive, 3D, virtual, shared world where activities can be carried out with the help of extended reality services. But it is much more than headsets and virtual games. The metaverse is increasingly conceptualised in tandem with other advanced technologies, including AI, IoT, automation, and blockchain. Combined, these Industrie 4.0 innovations will be at the centre of German productivity growth over the next decade. The IMF and the OECD both expect Germany to be the worst-performing leading economy in the world in 2023. Beyond recent shocks, German competitiveness is being “steadily eroded” by structural factors like “rising labour costs and a lack of digitisation” (Arnold, 2023). In this context of sclerotic growth, immersive technologies show much promise. The economic dimension of the new Digital Strategy should be guided by three simple “I’s” – immersive, industrial productivity, and internationalisation of German technologies. Specifically, the metaverse is driving productivity gains in manufacturing, engineering, financial services and retail – it could add €71 billion to German GDP by 2035. As well as enhancing the productivity of existing operations, immersive technologies and smart factories can enable the reshoring of profitable activities back to the German economy, particularly in technology and engineering. But these economic gains are not inevitable. Neglecting immersive technologies would have a significant effect on Germany’s remaining competitive advantages. For example, late adoption of the metaverse and digital twins by the German auto industry would lead to a 10% loss in exports, equating to more than €12 billion each year. The costs of late adoption are only underscored by the current salience of global competition. US firms have a strong track record of successfully integrating internet products into industry, while China and its own technology giants are developing strategic initiatives to capitalise on the metaverse. While much of the metaverse remains under development, companies are already showcasing a range of commercial partnerships and innovative use cases. German companies like Siemens are at the forefront of digital twins which allow automakers and other manufactures to replicate their physical facilities in virtual worlds, drawing on real-time data and simulations to optimise their operations. In insurance, the same digital twins are facilitating underwriting and expedited claims via remote monitoring. Meanwhile, in medical devices and healthcare, a metaverse of medical technology and AI (MeTAI) is facilitating the refinement of AI-based medical practices. This is the future of medical imaging technology, diagnosis, and therapy.
Topic:
European Union, Digital Economy, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

46. The EU’s Trillion Dollar Gap in ICT and Cloud Computing Capacities: The Case for a New Approach to Cloud Policy

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Fredrik Erixon, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
An inward-looking EU approach to cloud computing and data policies risks stifling innovation and competitiveness by promoting domestic champions at the expense of accessing global cloud capabilities. Limiting market diversity and access to best-in-breed solutions could hinder digital transformation across sectors, raising costs and constraining growth opportunities. By contrast, a free trade approach to cloud offer guardrails and security but champions non-discriminatory cross-border and regulatory policies, yielding economic advantages by stimulating investments, fostering innovation, and enhancing competition. Unfortunately, some EU policymakers envision Europe building an independent ICT infrastructure, exemplified by initiatives like the European Alliance on Industrial Data, Edge and Cloud. This approach prioritises technological sovereignty, aiming not just to maintain European control over critical infrastructure and data but favouring localisation policies, including in AI and quantum computing. However, the approach is simply not going to work because the amount of resources that are needed for “pure-EU firms” to rise up as significant competitors to global leaders is so large that it would drain other sectors of investments and human capital. The investment gap between the EU and the US in ICT and cloud-related sectors, totalling some USD 1.36 trillion, presents a significant challenge for native European companies. To catch up by 2030, 2040, and 2050, European technology companies would need to substantially increase annual investments, ranging from approximately USD 157 billion to USD 1.2 trillion annually, representing 0.8 percent to 6.4 percent of the EU’s GDP. This would – hypothetically – require a significant commitment of resources. Despite recent efforts such as state aid for R&D in cloud and edge computing, the scale of investment needed far exceeds the current levels, underscoring the urgency for an open and non-discriminatory EU policy approach to bolster Europe’s position in the rapidly growing and technologically changing digital landscape. There are different components to a successful cloud policy, including policies to spur adoption and cross-border cloud integration in the EU, and more investment in R&D. EU policymakers should adopt a dynamic perspective rather than fixating on static market shares, and pursue policies that prioritise innovation and technological advancement over merely seeking to catch up on current technologies. The cloud market and the broader Internet market are going through rapid changes, leading to new services and new competition. A future-oriented approach to cloud policy advocates for policies that foster competition, drive technological progress, and enable interoperability, all of which align with the dynamic nature of cloud services and global markets.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Cloud Computing, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

47. Irregular Migration from Palestine

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This paper aims to highlight the reality of Palestinian migrants and the challenges of exile under the prevailing circumstances faced by Palestinians amidst multiple crises, including political, economic, and deteriorating social conditions, leading to a fundamental deterioration of humanitarian situations, forcing them to leave their homeland due to difficult living conditions they cannot cope with. This paper also seeks to provide a broader perspective by shedding light on the phenomenon of migration in the Gaza Strip, which reports indicate is steadily increasing, not only in exploring the causes and motives but also by discussing its repercussions on the migrants themselves, attempting to address the risks associated with migration by tracing the reality of migrants and highlighting the challenges and crises they face from the moment they decide to leave the country and what they endure in their exile. In addition, the paper aims to provide recommendations, the most important of which is the creation of national plans aimed at enhancing national belonging among youth and promoting citizenship concepts, in addition to creating job opportunities and establishing a conducive environment that aligns with the aspirations of young people.
Topic:
Refugees, Citizenship, Youth, Humanitarian Crisis, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

48. Towards Meaningful Human Rights Impact Assessments: From supermarket commitments to best practice action

Author:
Eline Achterberg
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper focuses on the commitments that Dutch, German and UK supermarkets made as part of the Behind the Barcodes campaign to conduct human rights impact assessments (HRIAs). To understand whether supermarkets are meaningfully implementing those commitments and to support learning, this paper analyses the HRIAs that supermarkets have published in the past four years and identifies best practice efforts and points of improvement. Oxfam also outlines key recommendations for supermarkets and other food companies to improve HRIA processes to ensure that the rights of people making our food are better protected and respected.
Topic:
Human Rights, Food, Labor Rights, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Europe

49. Turn on the Light: Why tackling energy-related challenges in the nexus of water and food in Syria cannot wait

Author:
Anna Cervi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper contributes to the broader discourse on the nexus between Water, Energy and Food (WEF) in parts of Syria where Oxfam works. It explores the main causes behind the deterioration of the WEF sectors and the impact they have on households across Syria. The paper also focuses on aspects that directly impact and limit Oxfam’s work inside Syria, in the delivery and implementation of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene; Livelihoods; Food Security and Protection interventions. Addressing the WEF Nexus in Syria is key in delivering more effective and sustainable interventions; and helping Syrians restore their lives.
Topic:
Water, Conflict, Syrian War, Energy, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

50. Illusion or Reality: A Recontextualized Perspective of ‘the American Dream’ in Imbolo Mbue’s Behold the Dreamers

Author:
Elizabeth Adesunmbo Omotayo
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
‘The American Dream’ motif is one that has been deployed in productions of American literary icons for centuries with different outcomes for the characters portrayed. Despite a plethora of fiction being devoted to the motif from African migrants’ perspective, not many studies have explored the actualization of the Dream by characters in such texts. In Behold the Dreamers (2016), Imbolo Mbue presents the lived experiences of new African diasporans. This study looks at the outcomes of the quest for ‘the Dream’ by Mbue’s characters, through a mimetic reading of her novel and based on Harold Bloom’s notion of ‘Party of Hope’ and ‘the American Nightmare’ as exemplified in the treatments of the Dream motif by several writers. Mbue, while presenting the paradoxical notions of illusion and reality of the Dream, also portrays struggles by both citizens and migrants, to achieve the tangible and intangible of its ideals. Findings reveal that essentialization and discrimination inhibit the attainment of the Dream by many African migrants; that the attainment of college education is a huge factor in the realization of the tangible of its ideals, while the attainment of the intangible seems illusory for many migrants. The conclusion is that several factors prevent the realization of the Dream by many contemporary African migrants.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Literary Analysis, American Dream, and Motif
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

51. Economic Forced Migration in Southern Africa: The Case of Malawi

Author:
Cobbener Wilfred Sungani and Pascal Newbourne Mwale
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
As with other world regions, free market capitalism or the neoliberal system has caused numerous individuals and families to lose access to viable income-generating bases in Southern Africa. This places them in a socio-economically abject and precarious position. Resource-poor and unemployed Southern Africans have for a long time been forced to migrate to less unstable economies within the region. South Africa continues to be the most attractive destination for most poor and destitute Southern Africans. These people are called ‘economic refugees’ in the dominant literature. Hitherto, the plight of the Malawian ‘economic refugee’ in South Africa has not attracted much scholarly attention. Drawing on the interdisciplinary methodologies of African social philosophy and African social history, we present the case of Malawian economic refugees in South Africa. Drawing upon ideas derived from Immanuel Kant’s analysis in Perpetual Peace (1917), this paper argues for the promotion of the spirit of fraternity between South Africans and Malawian migrants
Topic:
Immanuel Kant, Forced Migration, Economic Refugee, and Fraternity
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Malawi

52. Investigating the Vulnerability of Foreign Migrants Businesses in Durban, South Africa, During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ayobami Popoola, Hangwelani Magidimisha-Chipingu, and Lovemore Chipungu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
There is lack of empirical evidence on the vulnerability of immigrant businesses in Durban, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate this, data was collected during the pandemic to evaluate the vulnerability of immigrant businesses. The research adopted the quantitative approach, with a sample of fifty-three (53) Durban city immigrants small-scale business owners, to examine their business vulnerability. A linear regression model and correlation were used to analyse the data. The findings show that business insecurity increased immigrants' business vulnerability. Thus, without underestimating the COVID-19 pandemic effect, it was evident that urban insecurity resulting in xenophobic tendencies and incidences is the main factor/determinant/predictor that increases the vulnerability of foreign businesses. The study suggests that the documentation and analysis of foreign immigrants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to understanding the effects and consequences for immigrants across the globe. The study contributes to debates on immigrants' inclusion and seeks to fill the gap in the literature on immigrant business experience and survival in host communities.
Topic:
Migration, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Business Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

53. The Complexities of Transnational Childcare Practices among Ghanaian Families in a Context of Global Pandemic

Author:
Patricia Serwaa Afrifa
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
Childcare remains central in all human societies. This is because it is in children that humans invest their immortality and ensure the continuity of humanity. This partly explains the social collectivism that is brought to bear in childcare to the extent that in some indigenous African societies, the popular axiom is: "It takes a village to raise to raise a child". While the forces of modernity, neoliberalism, and the near-collapse of the extended family system across the world, including indigenous societies, have negatively impacted collective childcare, parents continue to devise creative strategies to nurture their children. The members of the Ghanaian diaspora in the United States of America (USA) often extended invitations to older members of their families, including their mothers, to join them across the Atlantic to help with nurturing their children. This practice of transnational migration of child carers was very efficient in helping children to access Ghanaian cultural values and languages, until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. With the outbreak of the pandemic, one way of controlling its totalizing effect was the imposition of social distance protocols, which at the peak of the pandemic involved a global ban on all means of human crisscrossing the world. This implied that most diasporic Ghanaians had their family-dependent source of childcare supply significantly cut. This phenomenon inspired the paper. Through in-depth interviews with selected Ghanaian families in the USA through social media and phones, this paper explores the impact of the ban on transnational travel on childcare practices among Ghanaian diaspora in the USA. The key findings of the study suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not only cripple the economies of the world, it also blocked the alternatives available to Ghanaians to receive an additional source of care for their children.
Topic:
Diaspora, Family, COVID-19, Strategy, Migrants, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

54. Community Governance During COVID-19: Case Studies from Rural Areas of Bangladesh

Author:
Tanvir Shatil, Md. Rohmotul Islam, Huraera Jabeen, and Shahaduz Zaman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This working paper investigates community-driven initiatives in rural Bangladesh that emerged in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and persisted beyond the crisis. Focusing on the sustainability of these initiatives, the study explores the preconditions for collective actions, the development of community-level governance during the crisis, and the mobilization and longevity of these efforts. Supported by the Institute of Development Studies, the research aims to contribute valuable insights into community governance mechanisms in low-resource areas, offering potential solutions for designing resilient emergency interventions and addressing long-term development challenges.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Rural, COVID-19, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

55. Specialized Police Teams in UN Peace Operations: A Survey of Progress and Challenges

Author:
Charles T. Hunt
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Over the past decade and a half, specialized police teams (SPTs) have emerged as an innovative complement to individual police officers (IPOs) and formed police units (FPUs) in UN police peacekeeping. In general, SPTs are comprised of police officers and civilian policing experts focused on “skills transfer” and capacity building through technical assistance and advice, training, and mentoring to host-state police in a specific area of police operations or administration. This paper provides an overview of the benefits and challenges of SPTs as compared to IPOs. Some of the benefits include that SPTs are generally highly capable and meet high standards in specialized areas of policing, provide a more coherent and cohesive approach, and focus on objectives within a specific area. They also maximize capabilities by matching the work of officers to their skill sets, can be quick to deploy and adaptable, and maintain continuity by implementing longer projects. Moreover, SPTs facilitate relationship building with host-state police, use sustainable capacity-building approaches such as training of trainers, provide broader benefits to missions, and are more attractive to some police-contributing countries. At the same time, several obstacles to greater effectiveness have emerged, including that SPTs confront high-level tensions over their development and administration, experience supply-side issues due to their reliance on voluntary contributions and shortages of specially trained officers and civilian experts, and are dominated by countries in the Global North. They also have inconsistent composition, plans, and modalities across and even within missions and phases; lack sufficient guidance on key operational aspects; and lack consistent and sufficient funding. Moreover, SPTs are disconnected from broader efforts, sometimes implement unsustainable programming that focuses on “quick wins,” and often lack adequate frameworks for monitoring and evaluation. The lessons emerging from the experience of SPTs to date emphasize the need for innovation around deployment and implementation modalities for this specialized approach to capacity building. At the same time, they highlight the need for greater organizational flexibility and adaptability to empower and maximize the potential of SPTs.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Police, Skills, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56. Can the World Bank Deliver on Climate Change? Testing the Evolution Roadmap through Loss and Damage

Author:
Michael Franczak
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The establishment of a new Loss and Damage Fund and Funding Arrangements at COP27 and the Fund’s operationalization and initial capitalization at COP28 were milestones in the UN climate regime. The World Bank engaged in the Transitional Committee (TC) process as a potential host and trustee for the Fund, a member of a new “High-Level Dialogue,” and a direct provider of loss and damage (L&D) support. The implementation of the Fund and Funding Arrangements—the mosaic—is the first big test of the World Bank’s commitment to evolving its policies, practices, and relationships. This paper discusses the World Bank’s engagement with loss and damage, including the context of broader reforms aiming to modernize the Bank, such as the Bank’s Evolution Roadmap, which identifies three guiding elements for the Bank’s evolution: a new mission and vision, a new playbook, and new resources. One of the key components of the Bank’s evolution is the introduction of climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs) or “pause clauses.” Pause clauses feature prominently in recent initiatives to reform the international financial architecture, such as Bridgetown 2.0, the Africa Climate Summit’s Nairobi Declaration, and the Vulnerable Twenty Group’s (V20) Accra-Marrakech Agenda. The paper also discusses the debate over the World Bank’s hosting of the Fund and the set of conditions and safeguards, determined by developing countries, that the Bank would have to meet in order to host the Fund. Finally, the paper discusses priority actions for the High-Level Dialogue, including resource mobilization, institutional protocols, and the losses and damages of the future.
Topic:
Climate Change, World Bank, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

57. Productivity spillovers from FDI: A firm-level cross-country analysis

Author:
JaeBin Ahn, Shekhar Aiyar, and Andrea F. Presbitero
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper provides cross-country firm-level evidence on productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI), separately for greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The granularity of bilateral sector-level FDI datasets allows for addressing possible endogeneity issues by applying a two-step approach whereby an exogenous FDI measure is constructed from a gravity-type regression of bilateral FDI flows. When looking at the effects of greenfield investments on firm labour productivity we find: i) positive intra-industry spillover effects for firms located in advanced countries, and ii) positive backward spillover effects for firms located in emerging and developing countries. These spillovers are driven entirely by FDI from advanced countries. The results from cross-border M&As are noisier, with weakly suggestive evidence for positive intra-industry spillovers in advanced countries but negative backward spillovers in emerging markets and developing countries.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Business, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. How much does Europe pay for clean air?

Author:
Miquel Oliu-Barton and Juan Mejino Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Despite significant progress, air pollution still causes €600 billion in losses each year in the European Union – equal to 4 percent of its annual GDP. These costs stem from productivity losses such as increased absenteeism, the reduction of in-job productivity and harm to ecosystems. Air pollution costs are disproportionately high in eastern Europe and Italy, where losses are projected to remain above 6 percent of GDP until 2030. The EU’s 10 percent most-polluted regions suffer 25 percent of the burden of mortality attributable to air pollution. Measures against air pollution should be prioritised, not delayed, in these regions. Promoting clean air boosts economic growth by €50 billion to €60 billion every year. The EU’s increasing commitment to cleaner air is reflected by a threefold increase in the funds allocated to promoting clean-air policies, from €7 billion annually for the period 2014-2020 to €25 billion annually for 2021-2027, notably supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). EU financial support must continue beyond 2026 when the RRF terminates. The EU Ambient Air Quality Directive sends a strong signal but leaves loopholes: exceptions and postponements may jeopardise overall progress on cleaner air. Fossil-fuel consumption is one of the main obstacles to achieving clean-air targets. Yet fossil fuels subsidies were fourteen times higher than EU clean-air funds between 2014 and 2020, and are projected to remain five times higher for the years ahead. Ammonia, an important precursor of fine particulate matter mainly stemming from agriculture, is insufficiently regulated. Effectiveness of clean-air policies is context-dependent. Identifying concrete actions for each region and quantifying the potential gains are required to accelerate the transition to cleaner air. Phasing out coal use in residential heating is most profitable in eastern Europe, while reducing industrial and agricultural emissions would reap more benefits in the north of Italy.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Productivity, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:
Europe

59. A conceptual framework for the identification and governance of European public goods

Author:
Gregory Claeys and Armin Steinbach
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The challenging current policy environment has raised the question of which policy decisions should be taken at national level and which at European Union level. As a general rule, the EU should be responsible only for the provision of European public goods (EPGs), while countries are better placed to provide national public goods. However, in practice, the situation is rarely that simple. We offer a framework for identification of EPGs with three main insights. First, a decision to provide a public good at national level, EU level or a combination of both depends on the degree of heterogeneity of preferences across countries and the efficiency case for EU-level provision. When preferences vary and the efficiency case is weak, goods should be provided at national level. When preferences are similar and the efficiency case is strong, goods should be provided at the EU level. When preferences differ but there is a strong efficiency case, a trade-off arises. Second, institutional and legal instruments exist already to manage this trade-off. These include: competence transfers, decision-making modalities, variable participation of countries, centralisation of delivery and funding, and compensating negatively affected countries to achieve greater alignment of preferences. Third, both the efficiency case for EPGs and the distribution of preferences over their provision may change over time. This could be because the world around the EU changes (for example, giving greater weight to an efficiency case, eg in areas related to defence) or because preferences change, for example, as result of a pandemic, or because a particular institutional or compensation practice convinces dissenters that they can be better off inside than outside a multi-country arrangement governing the provision of a public good. An implication is that the question ‘should public goods be provided at the national or European level?’ may be the wrong question to ask. The right question is how to find institutional arrangements for public-good provision, to maximise the benefits of public goods for EU members.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe

60. Navigating the treacherous political economy of structural reform

Author:
Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, and Chris Papageorgiou
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We examine the economic and electoral effects of liberalisation measures using newly-constructed databases on structural economic reforms and the outcome of democratic elections since the 1970s. The data shows a remarkable slowdown in the pace of liberalisation in both advanced and emerging market and developing countries since the 1990s. A debate has emerged about the causes of this slowdown, including the possibility that reforms do not deliver the economic benefits that advocates, including the multilateral financial institutions, trumpeted. Some have pointed to the fact that the current and previous United States administrations have abandoned neoliberal policies in favour of more government intervention in the economy, and the effect has been globally contagious. Our empirical analysis suggests that the growth dividend from liberalisation is economically and statistically significant, but it emerges only slowly over time. Because of this delay, liberalising reforms are costly to democratic incumbents when they are implemented close to elections. Reforms may generate immediate concentrated losses, which elicit an electoral backlash, especially when the aggregate gains are only visible several years after the reform’s implementation. The electoral penalty is also sensitive to overall business-cycle conditions, being much larger when an economy is in recession. Electoral effects also differ depending on the type of reform. Notably, financial reforms generate more perceptible growth-equity trade-offs than real-economy reforms, especially when implemented during weak economic conditions. The political economy of reform is treacherous. To avoid adverse electoral effects, timing reform early in the electoral term and when business-cycle conditions are favourable is critical. So too is avoiding reforms that generate large distributional costs in the face of small aggregate gains (an adverse growth-equity trade-off). Focusing on these considerations is critical to reinvigorate support for structural reform.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Reform, Elections, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

61. Instruments of economic security

Author:
Conor McCaffrey and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Geopolitical and economic developments, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and trade disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, have raised concerns about the European Union’s exposure to hostile countries. The challenge of improving European economic security (which we narrowly treat here as exposure to foreign trade or production shocks) has grown in importance, with various relevant policy measures introduced at EU level. Focusing in particular on the threat posed by economic coercion, this paper begins by assessing the nature of this threat, before outlining two lessons that can be drawn from two recent instances of this coercion in action: China’s actions against Lithuania and Australia respectively. First, while much of the policy debate has focused on imports, the threat to EU exporters should not be ignored. Second, while coercion may not cause any macroeconomically significant harm, this may mask severe impacts on the targeted industries, which should be considered in any policy responses. The EU has significantly added to its policy tools in this area, though some of the instruments introduced under the umbrella of economic security go beyond the definition we consider. An effective response should be built around: building a deeper understanding of the risks facing the EU; improving diversification of both exports and imports; using targeted industrial policy in the limited sectors where the risks warrant intervention; and managing and limiting the fallout of any shocks using ex-post instruments.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Policy, Economic Security, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Europe

62. Unpacking China’s industrial policy and its implications for Europe

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
China is often credited with a successful application of industrial policy. One important particularity of China’s industrial policy is that it aims at levelling the playing field between the state economy and the private economy in access to finance, yet within a framework of strategic goals. This aim is not relevant for market economies, such as those of the European Union, but only for those where state enterprises are clearly privileged. Notwithstanding the difficulties in making valid comparisons, our analysis of how China conducts industrial policy in a variety of sectors points to success in some sectors but not all. More importantly, productivity growth in China has already been declining for two decades. Given the very large resources that China has put into industrial policy, with subsidies being only one part, it is surprising that success is not more evident. This relates partly to factors including cronyism and regional protectionism. While the former might be less relevant for the EU given the different institutional background, the latter certainly is relevant since the EU faces the potential consequences of member country-level industrial policy for its single market. A lesson from China seems to come from the sectoral focus, with a long-term and economic-security mindset. The EU is far from this, but it is in the process of linking economic security to industrial policy. Finally, responding to China’s industrial policy involves diverse investigations and challenges in measuring subsidies accurately. Understanding China’s very diverse and complex approach to helping companies achieve the government’s industrial policy goals is crucial for anticipating the consequences of China’s actions. These could be positive, such as cheaper imports of green technology, or negative, such as Chinese overcapacity spilling over to the EU single market.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Markets, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

63. Using the financial system to enforce export controls

Author:
Benjamin Hilgenstock, Elina Ribakova, Guntram Wolff, and Anna Vlasyuk
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Russian imports of battlefield goods that are subject to export controls, including from Western producers, have surged since mid-2022 and reached levels close to those prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia thus continues to be able to acquire critical foreign components that it needs for its military industry. These imports occur via mainland China, Hong Kong, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, while other countries including Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic have also seen massive increases in imports from the EU and other coalition countries that likely end up in Russia. The implementation and enforcement of export controls faces major challenges, which are multifaceted and centre around complex supply chains, lack of transparency in documentation and opaque financial structures. The issues are familiar from anti money laundering (AML) and countering financing of terrorism (CFT) frameworks, where much progress has been made in the last two decades. A similar approach could help in rendering export controls effective. We propose: First, financial institutions could be tasked to play a role in the monitoring of the trade in export-controlled goods and the blocking of illicit transactions, building on their experience with due diligence in financial transactions. Second, non-financial companies could learn from banks’ efforts in the AML/CFT sphere to implement proper due-diligence procedures and to ensure export controls compliance. Public-sector investigations and appropriate fines are critical to increase the incentives for firms to act. Technology sanctions are going to be part of the economic statecraft toolbox for the foreseeable future. The Russia case will test their effectiveness and credibility, or lack thereof.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Exports, Trade, Imports, Financial Systems, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

64. Economic arguments in favour of reducing copyright protection for generative AI inputs and outputs

Author:
Bertin Martens
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) models have stirred considerable controversy about copyright protection for AI training inputs and model outputs. The European Union’s AI Act will require model developers to be transparent about their use of training inputs such as text, images and music. The EU Copyright Directive allows free text and data mining of these media inputs unless copyright holders have opted out and want license payments. The right to opt-out amounts to economically inefficient overprotection of copyright. Free use of media content for GenAI training does not affect media sales to consumers. Optouts only strengthen the bargaining position of copyright holders, who decide depending on their private interests. That generates windfall profits without any increase in consumer surplus or social welfare. The licensing of training inputs reduces the quantity of data and the quality of GenAI models, creates transaction costs and reduces competition between GenAI firms. This slows down GenAI-induced innovation in media products and production processes, and productivity gains in all service sectors that apply GenAI. Ultimately, it slows down economic growth compared to what it could be with competitive and high-quality GenAI. Bargaining over license pricing is arbitrary as there is no objective revenue benchmark to start from. Defenders of the moral right to remuneration argue that any arbitrary remuneration is better than no remuneration. But this private moral right comes at the expense of social welfare. The ongoing bargaining and court cases between media producers and GenAI developers risk entrenching this market failure in jurisprudence. Early regulatory intervention and elimination of opt-outs for GenAI training, or weakening them in AI Act implementation guidelines, would solve this. There is no need for copyright on GenAI outputs either. GenAI reduces the marginal cost of machine-production of media outputs to close to zero, on par with the marginal cost of reproduction. That eliminates incentives for piracy. Moreover, composite human-machine outputs benefit from a de-facto extension of copyright on the human component.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Regulation, Economic Growth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe

65. The rocky road to EU accession for Western Balkan countries: obstacles and lessons from the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Armin Steinbach
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The Western Balkan countries and the countries of the Eastern Partnership are moving towards European Union accession at different speeds. We explore whether and how the variable speed towards EU accession can be traced to different legal regimes governing European integration: Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAA) for the Western Balkan countries, and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTA) for the countries of the Eastern Partnership (EaP). We find that DCFTAs apply more lenient conditionality to intra-regional cooperation. They subject non-tariff barriers to a more explicit regime than the Western Balkan SAAs. The DCFTAs also offer a more rigid and comprehensive approach to the approximation of laws than the SAAs, and the DCFTAs are more inclusive with regard to the role of civil society. However, there is no indication that the differences in legal governance have translated into stronger economic performance in the EaP countries or greater integration with the EU, compared to the Western Balkans. The Western Balkan countries remain significantly more integrated than the EaP countries with the EU in trade terms, while convergence with the EU has been stagnating both for the Western Balkan and the EaP countries. Economic shortcomings in the Western Balkan still need to be addressed. Conditionality attached to both integration into the EU single market and EU funding should be nuanced; the eradication of non-tariff barriers should be prioritised both inter-regionally and intra-regionally between Western Balkan countries; the need for stronger EU investment in the region is reinforced by geopolitical concerns about Chinese investments coming without EU-type conditionality attached; and governance should give a stronger role to civil society. In order to address the shortcomings in SAAs, a pragmatic solution is to use the existing governance framework under the SAAs.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, and Eastern Partnership
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

66. Incorporating the impact of social investments and reforms in the European Union’s new fiscal framework

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union’s new fiscal framework aims to incentivise public investment and reforms by offering the option to extend the four-year fiscal adjustment period to seven years, thereby lowering the average annual fiscal adjustment requirement. EU countries can propose investment and reforms in the context of their national medium-term fiscal structural plans. When they do, these investments and reforms can be expected to also inform the fiscal adjustment proposed by member states. Yet, the EU lacks an agreed methodology for deciding on the potential quantitative impact of investment and reforms on the fiscal adjustment required under the new rules. This paper first analyses the ‘investment friendliness’ of the new framework. Although the incentives offered for raising investment are powerful, the bar for extending the adjustment period mainly through higher investment is high, and the design of the new rules will make it hard to actually raise investment. We next propose an approach for quantifying the impact of investment and reform on debt sustainability in the context of the new framework, taking into account uncertainty about their implementation and their economic effects. Such a methodology would also help the European Commission evaluate the impacts of recently adopted measures, the impacts of which are not yet observable. Developing this methodology will require revisiting the current commonly agreed methodologies for medium- and long-term capital stock and total factor productivity projections. We illustrate the potential impact of investment on debt sustainability analyses through calculations on three social investment measures, that is, combinations of reform and public spending that aim to increase human capital and labour force participations. While the impact of individual reforms on fiscal adjustment needs is generally modest, the combined impact of several measures could be notable.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, Public Investment, and Social Investment
Political Geography:
Europe

67. Exposure to generative artificial intelligence in the European labour market

Author:
Laura Nurski and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We apply two sets of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) occupational exposure scores – one task-based, one ability-based – to the European Labour Force Survey. While using different methodologies, our findings reveal consistent demographic patterns across the two approaches: jobs held by women, highly educated and younger workers are more exposed to GenAI technology in Europe. We also review the literature on the recent productivity impact of GenAI. Within the same occupations, less-experienced or less-skilled workers consistently get the largest productivity gains from GenAI support. We argue that a task-based analysis is more fruitful than an ability-based one, both for guiding GenAI adoption in organisations and their workplaces, and for assessing the employment and job quality impact on workers. Finally, we provide policy recommendations that can help workers (ie the labour supply) adjust to technological disruption, such as providing training and social safety nets. But we go further by also suggesting policy interventions that could redirect future labour demand towards better jobs, by promoting job redesign and organisational agility. Monitoring GenAI’s employment effects and researching the ‘jagged technological frontier’ is necessary to further build our understanding of the employment impact of this transformational technology.
Topic:
European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:
Europe

68. Global supply chains: lessons from a decade of disruption

Author:
Luca Léry Moffat and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper explores both the character and impact of three recent shocks to global supply chains: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war. These were large shocks which have had significant impacts on domestic and international supply chains, but these impacts have differed in their longevity, economic impact and policy responses. We show that supply chains were remarkably resilient against shocks of such magnitude. However, this resilience was also achieved thanks to the equally remarkable size and scope of policy responses and global supply chain reorganisation. We recommend that pre-emptive policies may be justified to shield households and industry from future shocks. Given the entangled nature of these shocks and that their effects continue to reverberate, we emphasise the need for extensive future research to understand the nature of these shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses.
Topic:
Global Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

69. Knowledge spillovers and geopolitical challenges in global supply chains

Author:
Niclas Poitiers and Kamil Sekut
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper explores the role of knowledge spillovers through global supply chains against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies. The research, part of the ReThinkGSC project, underscores the importance of the international research and development ecosystem in fostering innovation. This ecosystem provides benefits to all countries involved and is essential for tackling global challenges. However, we highlight the growing threats to knowledge dissemination posed by policies aimed at preserving national security and leading technological positions. These measures, intended to safeguard strategic interests, risk fragmenting supply chains and stifling global innovation if they are applied on a broad basis. We recommend that restrictions on knowledge flows be limited to narrowly defined strategic areas and that countries adopt strategies to enhance internal knowledge dissemination, diversify supply chains and foster international economic ties. We emphasise the need for careful policy design, avoiding broad protectionist measures, and suggests bolstering R&D through public grants and tax incentives, and by promoting private-public partnerships.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Supply Chains, Research and Development, and Knowledge Transfer
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Entry and competition in mobile app stores

Author:
Fiona Scott Morton
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Entry by rival app stores on the two currently available mobile operating systems is an exciting potential benefit of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). Apple and Google will need to share the technical specifications of their interfaces with developers and offer them the same functionalities they give to their own stores. The DMA also allows developers to disintermediate the legacy stores entirely by mandating downloads from the web to handsets. These changes should stimulate price competition – resulting in fees falling from the current 30 percent – and competition in variety and features. Privacy and security will be important issues, with the question of who is permitted to offer rival stores being critical. Good enforcement by the European Commission will be necessary to balance gatekeeper rules restricting dangerous services with the need for contestability. The paper concludes with examples of rival app stores that can be expected to enter. Stores will differentiate through curation, such as stores for children, for those trying to reduce their carbon footprints or for those seeking to use public services in a particular country. Some stores will innovate through alternative payment schemes – for example, a newspaper store that enables per-article pricing and pioneers innovative data-sharing policies. Lastly, developers such as Epic have long stated their desire to offer stores with innovative technology.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Mobile Applications, Digital Markets Act (DMA), and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

71. The chicken-and-egg problem in the European Union Digital Markets Act

Author:
Fiona Scott Morton
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The gatekeeper platforms regulated by the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) must comply with the law as of 6 March 2024. The DMA requires that core platform services create and make available interfaces that allow business users to access end users via the platform at lower cost and on better terms. For example, app developers will have the right to distribute on handsets through different app stores, using different payment services, directing users to purchase content on the web and charging different prices in different channels. The gatekeeper must provide the application programming interfaces, or APIs, to enable business users to take advantage of these rights. However, the DMA does not define exactly what those APIs should be. Rather, the law requires a gatekeeper’s interface to be “effective,” meaning business users can use it to enter, compete and innovate. Because such a design is not, in general, in the interest of the gatekeeper, the input of business users to both gatekeepers and the European Commission is critical for evaluating compliance with the law. Thus far there is little evidence of platforms interacting with business users or putting out interfaces for evaluation by business users, or of business users offering comments on what interfaces would be best for entry and competition. It may be that the interface must come first, and then its existence will stimulate entry of new business users or investment into new services that will use the interface. Rather like the chicken and the egg, which should come first? Business users are needed to help create useful interfaces, while useful interfaces are needed to justify investment and entry by business users.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Investment, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:
Europe

72. Making industrial policy work: a case study on the European Battery Alliance Academy

Author:
Conor McCaffrey and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The transition from cars powered by the internal combustion engine to vehicles powered by electric batteries implies a fundamental shift in the types of skills required by the automotive industry. However, the industry faces significant problems in finding suitable workers. Surveys show that the lack of skilled labour is seen by firms as a problem of similar magnitude to high energy costs. Against the background a general skills shortage in the European Union, the shortage of skilled labour represents a major impediment to the development of a European battery industry. The European Battery Alliance Academy is the main component of the EU’s strategy for tackling this problem. It develops training courses and materials to assist local training providers, and serves as a blueprint for skills policies in other industries. However, given the scale of the challenge, it represents more a symbolic than a substantive answer to the challenge. More should be done. The limited powers of the EU in labour market policies hold up a union-wide solution. In the short term, the training programmes developed by the European Battery Alliance Academy* could more explicitly target demographics that are underserved by private training providers. In the medium term, the EU should rethink its labour market competences in order to develop a social pillar to underpin the European green transition.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Labor Market, Skilled Labor, and Workforce
Political Geography:
Europe

73. Navigating Educational Disruptions: The Gender Divide in Parental Involvement and Children’s Learning Outcomes

Author:
Matias Ciaschi, Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This study analyzes the adjustment in time allocation to school support activities by mothers and fathers during the pandemic across 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries, exploring the repercussions on labor market outcomes and children’s learning losses. Our analysis reveals that mothers experienced a disproportionate increase in time dedicated to children’s educational support compared to fathers, particularly when mothers could work from home. The results suggest that these effects were more pronounced in countries with stringent school closure measures and limited access to in-person instruction. Even as mobility restrictions eased and schools reopened, the additional responsibilities taken on by mothers remained above pre-pandemic levels. Mothers also significantly increased the time spent on non-educational childcare, though to a lesser extent than educational support. We also show evidence indicating a decline in maternal labor force participation and a rise in flexible labor arrangements as mothers allocated more hours to child-related duties. Our study also provides descriptive evidence that children’s learning losses were less severe in countries where the gender disparity in pandemicrelated school support was greater.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, COVID-19, Parenting, and Childcare
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

74. Revisiting Distributional Effects of Energy Subsidies in Argentina

Author:
Octavio Bertín, Thomas García, Francisco Pizzi, Alberto Porto, Julian Puig, and Jorge Puig
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We review the distributional incidence of residential energy subsidies using the attractive case of Argentina, a developing country that has massively subsidized electricity in recent decades. Using multiple data sources, we explore two central dimensions, usually omitted in previous research. On the one hand, we focus on geography given that previous studies mostly focus on the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (i.e., AMBA), the most populated region in the country. However, Argentina’s territorial heterogeneity demands further analysis, given that the stage of electricity distribution introduces heterogeneities between jurisdictions. On the other hand, we focus on the subsidies’ financing given that previous studies do not focus on the net incidence. Our results indicate that: regional disparities in the costs of electricity distribution and the prices set by the distribution companies are key drivers of the distributional incidence. Also omitting subsidies’ financing may lead to overestimating the belief about their redistributive effect.
Topic:
Development, Electricity, Subsidies, and Distributive Incidence
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

75. Local Economic Development Through Export-Led Growth: The Chilean Case

Author:
Andrés César and Guillermo Falcone
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We study the causal impact of export growth on Chilean local economic development during 2000–2006 by exploiting spatial and temporal variations in local exposure stemming from the interaction of past differences in industry specialization across local labor markets and the evolution of tariffs cuts and exports across industries. We find that growing exports implied a significant reduction in labor informality and labor income gains in more exposed local markets, driven by job creation and wage growth in the formal sector. These effects concentrate on senior skilled workers. Exposed locations also exhibit a greater relative decline in the poverty rate.
Topic:
Poverty, Employment, Economic Growth, Tariffs, Exports, Economic Development, Labor Market, Wages, and Informality
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

76. The Long-Run Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers: the Case of Bolsa Familia in Brazil

Author:
Luis Laguinge, Leonardo Gasparini, and Guido Neidhöfer
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) have become a key antipoverty policy in Latin America in the last 25 years. The ultimate goal of this kind of programs is to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty through the promotion of human capital accumulation of children in vulnerable households. In this paper, we explore this issue by estimating the long-run effects of the largest CCT in Latin America: the Brazilian Bolsa Familia. Through a combination of the two-stage-two-sample method and a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence consistent with a positive long-run impact of Bolsa Familia among former beneficiaries. In particular, we find a significant positive effect on education and labor income, and a negative effect on the likelihood of being a current beneficiary of this social transfer.
Topic:
Poverty, Human Capital, Cash Transfers, and Bolsa Familia
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

77. Children living with disabilities and mother’s labor supply in developing countries: evidence from Argentina

Author:
Laura Carella, Rafael-Andrés Velázquez-Pérez, Natalia Porto, and Ana Clara Rucci
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
A child’s disability increases childcare demands causing two opposing effects on the mother’s labor supply: while some types of disability require additional time spent reducing labor supply, othersrequire additional expenses increasing labor supply. This paper studies the effect of a child’s disability on mothers’ labor supply using data from the 2019-20 IPUMS MICS of Argentina. Four measures of disability are used: children with a functional disability (based on Washington Group criteria); children with functional difficulties for seeing, hearing, or walking; children with difficulties in the remaining functional domains; and children with a disability certificate or pension. The results suggest that having a child with disability certificate or pension reduces a mother’s probability of participating in the labor force. No significant effect is found for mothers of a child with a functional disability. However, this arises from two opposing effects: a negative effect on mother’s labor supply of children with difficulties for seeing, hearing, or walking and a positive effect on mothers of children with difficulties in the remaining functional domains. The evidence also shows heterogeneous effects depending on the mother’s education. The (dis)incentive to participate is present for non-graduated mothers, while the effect is not statistically significant for graduated ones.
Topic:
Children, Disability, Labor Market, Workforce, and Motherhood
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

78. Beyond Traditional Wage Premium. An Analysis of Wage Greenium in Latin America

Author:
Manuela Cerimelo, Pablo de la Vega, Natalia Porto, and Franco Vazquez
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper estimates wage differentials between green and non-green jobs (wage greenium) in nine major Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay), which account for 81% of the region’s GDP. We contribute to the recent literature highlighting a positive wage gap for those working in green jobs in developed countries. A positive wage gap for green jobs may be a virtuous market feature, as it means that in the future workers might be encouraged to switch to greener occupations. To do so, we define green jobs as those occupations with high greenness scores using the occupational approach as in Vona et al. (2018), Vona (2021) and de la Vega et al. (2024). Our results suggest that the wage greenium for the period 2012-2019 in Latin America was between 18% to 22%. Moreover, this wage gap has remained relatively stable over the years.
Topic:
Labor Market, Wages, and Green Jobs
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Latin America, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

79. The Impact of COVID-19 on Education in Latin America: Long-Run Implications for Poverty and Inequality

Author:
Jessica Bracco, Matias Ciaschi, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Guido Neidhöfer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the human capital formation of children and youths. As a consequence of this disruption, the pandemic is likely to imply permanent lower levels of human capital. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of COVID-19 and school closures on education in Latin America by exploiting harmonized microdata from a large set of national household surveys carried out in 2020, during the pandemic. In addition, the paper uses microsimulations to assess the potential effect of changes in human capital due to the COVID-19 crisis on future income distributions. The findings show that the pandemic is likely to have significant long-run consequences in terms of incomes and poverty if strong compensatory measures are not taken soon.
Topic:
Education, Poverty, Inequality, Human Capital, COVID-19, and Income
Political Geography:
Latin America

80. What Makes an Imagined Future Credible?

Author:
Jens Beckert
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Narratives of the future are a crucial source of the dynamics of capitalism (Beckert 2016). Since there are no future facts, assessments of the future necessarily need to rely on accounts that cannot be limited to the presentation of facts. This means they cannot be true or false, but they can be credible or non-credible. To trigger decisions, the narrative must convince actors that it is at least sufficiently probable that events will indeed play out as portrayed. But where does this credibility come from? I propose a simple model which consists of three elements. I distinguish first the "story-maker" or "persuader", the person (or institution) that creates specific imagined futures and often wants to convince other actors of the accuracy of the narrative. Second, the "story-taker" or agent who ultimately makes the decisions through which resources are put at risk and who needs to become convinced of the credibility of the imagined future. The third element in the model is social context, the features of the social and material environment that position the agent in a social network and influence assessments of credibility.
Topic:
Capitalism, Power, Narrative, Future, Credibility, Uncertainty, Imagined Futures, Persuasion, Social Context, and Story
Political Geography:
Global Focus

81. The Greek Tragedy: Narratives and Imagined Futures in the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author:
Jens Beckert and Hans Lukas Richard Arndt
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Between 2009 and 2015 Greece underwent a profound sovereign debt crisis that led to a serious political crisis in Europe and the restructuring of Greek debt. We argue that the prevalence of negative narratives about the future contributed to the changes in spreads of Greek bonds during the crisis. We support our argument by presenting results from text mining a corpus of 9,435 articles from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. Based on sentiments and a machine learning model predicting future reference, we identify newspaper articles which generate negative and uncertain outlooks for the future in the expert discourse. We provide evidence from time series regression analysis showing that these negative imagined futures have explanatory power in models estimating spread development of Greek vs. German sovereign bonds. We suggest that these findings provide good evidence for the relevance of “imagined futures” for investors’ behavior, and give directions for an innovative contribution of sociology to understanding the microfoundations of financial crises.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Future, Sovereign Debt, Economic Sociology, Sentiment Analysis, and Valuation
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

82. Triffin Reloaded: The Matrix of Contradictions around Global Quasi-State Money

Author:
Herman Mark Schwartz
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
What explains the US dollar’s role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin’s dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for its core currency, and relatively robust capital controls. Triffin’s approach, and those based on it, struggles to explain the tensions in a system with floating exchange rates and fiat money, because Triffin and successors assume a commodity theory of money, a loanable funds model for credit creation, and the “triple coincidence” of monetary, legal, and economic zones. Approaching the question from different premises – chartalist money, endogenous credit creation, and interlocked global balance sheets – enables us to see four factors behind the antinomies or dilemmas that structure the dynamics and durability of US dollar centrality. Those four factors are adequate credit creation and thus global aggregate demand growth, current account deficits for the core, domestic legitimacy in major economies, and the dollar’s status as global quasi-state money.
Topic:
Debt, Money, Currency, Power, Financial Systems, Geoeconomics, and Reserves
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

83. Dealing Government Bonds: Trading Infrastructures and Infrastructural Power in European Markets for Public Debt

Author:
Arjen van der Heide
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Confronted with increased difficulties to raise taxation, high inflation, and pressures to maintain social spending, many rich democracies have increasingly sought to raise funds in financial markets since the 1970s. Using the notion of “infrastructural power,” this paper examines the various ways in which states have become infrastructurally entangled with key actors in financial markets that provide the infrastructure of today’s markets for government bonds. Drawing on twenty-two interviews with debt managers and market participants, and documentary material, the article analyses the rise to prominence of MTS (Mercato dei Titoli di Stato), an electronic platform for trading government bonds that has become a key feature of Europe’s government bond market infrastructure. It traces the emergence of MTS in Italy, its rapid diffusion through Europe and its limited (or even non-existent) success in gaining market share in Germany and the UK. In so doing, this paper finds that some debt management units actively regulate their secondary bond markets to stimulate competition among dealer banks; they “orchestrate” the market for government bonds. Others take a more hands-off approach and only engage with secondary markets mostly as market participants by issuing debt instruments and perhaps buying and selling them in the secondary market. These differences are important for understanding the politics of sovereign debt: they reflect power relations, may impact states’ cost of borrowing and their capacity to withstand moments of fiscal stress.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Financial Markets, Banks, Public Debt, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Global Focus

84. Talking Exports: The Representation of Germany’s Current Account in Newspaper Media

Author:
Andreas Maschke
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Contents 1 Introduction 2 Germany’s export-led growth model 3 Sustainability of growth models: Growth coalitions and public discourse 4 Analysing the discourse surrounding Germany’s current account surplus 5 Results Quantitative analysis Qualitative analysis 6 Discussion of results 7 Conclusion Appendix References
Topic:
Political Economy, Media, News Analysis, Economic Growth, and Discourse
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

85. Perspectives on the 1972–1973 massacre and post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Burundi

Author:
Isidore Nsengiyumva
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
How do we repair and reconcile a society broken multiple times by years of political violence and cyclic mass atrocity events? Reconciliation processes in post-conflict societies tend to favour state-led peace processes to aid individuals and communities alike to heal, make sense of the past while also imagining and forging an interdependent future together. The Burundi Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), established in 2014, has the mandate to investigate past crimes and mass violence events dating from 1885 to the 4 December 2008 ceasefire with the aim of aiding truth-telling, reconciliation and transitional justice. The paper comments on how the TRC shapes ongoing healing, reconciliation and transitional justice efforts in post-conflict Burundi. This paper uses desk-based research to draw insights from documented works and reports of the TRC between 2018 and 2022. The TRC’s findings sparked multiple narratives and public discourse in the Senate which further led to the re-examination of the 1972‒1973 massacre, the legacy of colonisation and its impact in cementing ethnic divisions that led to cyclic mass violence in Burundi.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Colonialism, Violence, Reconciliation, Narrative, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

86. Deterrence, escalation and strategic stability: rebuilding Australia’s muscle memory

Author:
Bec Shrimpton
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
To build an effective deterrence strategy, Australia needs urgently to improve its skills and understanding of deterrence, and raise the topic’s profile in our public and policy discussions. Despite having previously been a global thought leader on nuclear weapons and deterrence half a century ago, Australia today doesn’t have a strong grasp of the basics of modern deterrence. Knowledge of and literacy in deterrence are vital for adapting and applying such concepts to meet today’s extraordinarily complex, multidomain and multidimensional requirements. A lack of understanding of deterrence can critically undermine the ability to get strategy and policy right. The implications for Australia’s national interests are urgent and serious. The limited debate in Australia about what good deterrence strategy looks like and its key components can’t be advanced without better understanding of key terms and ideas that are fundamental to deterrence theory and practice. There are, of course, obvious limits to what Australia can achieve alone. Our ability to integrate and combine our military capabilities with those of the US and other critical partners is fundamental to our ability to achieve our security objectives, but some of our partners are working more closely together on building deterrence strategies. We have some catching up to do. This report explains what deterrence is and why it matters. It looks at Australian deterrence policy in practice and at deterrence efforts by some of our partners and allies and it highlights a number of gaps in Australia’s strategic and deterrence planning. The report makes a series of policy recommendations for government, and especially for the Department of Defence, to rebuild Australia’s position as a thought leader on deterrence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

87. The technical limits of the EU. Europe’s defense economy as a driving force for strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The Working Paper delves into the European Union’s defense sector’s evolution and current challenges, underscoring the urgency for strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty. It provides a historical backdrop of EU defense initiatives, highlighting the significant influence of recent geopolitical shifts, notably the conflict in Ukraine, on the EU’s defense strategies and industrial landscape. The fragmentation of the European defense market, rising equipment costs, and hefty R&D expenses undermining competitiveness and innovation are identified as key challenges. The author focuses on the war in Ukraine as a catalyst for a consolidated defense equipment market and a surge in military expenditures and defense investments among EU nations. He scrutinizes EU’s measures to foster innovation and integration in the defense market while grappling with national protectionism and divergent member state interests. Conclusively, the report advocates for an autonomous European defense capability as crucial for tackling both longstanding and emerging crises and threats. It underscores the imperative of a harmonized defense approach within the EU, highlighting its significance for the region’s stability and security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

88. The UN Summit of the Future (September 2024): Which opportunities for the OSCE?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The UN Summit of the Future, scheduled for 22-23 September 2024, brings together the United Nations' 193 member states under the theme “multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow.” Despite a sour mood in New York City against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Summit can act as a ‘reset’. The OSCE, which is “multilateralism in action”, should use the event and its aftermaths to promote its remarkable contribution as a ‘regional arrangement’ under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter and its thirty-year concrete co-operation with the UN. Both UNSG Guterres’s ‘New Agenda for Peace’ and the draft ‘Pact for the Future’, the two conceptual foundations of the forthcoming Summit, resonate well with the OSCE’s concept of comprehensive security. By taking proactive steps in that framework, the Vienna Organization can enhance its role and effectiveness in the evolving international system. This paper’s ten recommendations include: the adoption of a Ministerial Declaration at the December 2024 Council, taking advantage of Malta’s current 'double-hatted’ status – OSCE Chair and non-permanent member of the UN Security Council -; the continuation of the joint OSCE-UN preparation in view of future opportunities in Ukraine, leveraging the SMM’s experience and lessons learned including the use of advanced monitoring technologies; the establishment of the OSCE as a ‘regional hub’ for climate change, building on Guterres’s call to address the interlinkages between climate, peace and insecurity as a “political priority”; and the increased involvement of the OSCE’s Mediterranean and Asian partners for co-operation which offer gateways to the ‘broader world’.
Topic:
United Nations, Multilateralism, OSCE, and Future
Political Geography:
Global Focus

89. Gender-responsive development

Author:
Karmen Tornius and Lars Engberg-Pedersen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In addition to national gender policies, African governments and non-state actors engage with the African Union and United Nations to negotiate and draft international agreements on gender equality issues. This DIIS Working Paper explores the priorities, contestations and gaps in the African Union’s gender governance; the status of and priorities in gender-responsive governance at country level; and African priorities in global gender policy spaces. This study discusses those linkages between different levels while focusing on nine countries: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan and Uganda. Taking Danish development co-operation priorities as a point of departure, these countries provide perspectives from very diverse economic and security contexts.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, African Union, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

90. The need for a ‘peace continuum’ approach to climate security

Author:
Louise Wiuff Moe
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate change is a priority area in European and broader Western initiatives for global security, with a significant focus on Africa. This DIIS Working Paper argues that advancing the climate security agenda requires approaches that integrate climate adaptation and finance into a ‘peace continuum’, spanning prevention, peacebuilding, and development. The paper shows where the current climate security-agenda falls short, in particular regarding climate finance and the prioritisation of conflict-affected contexts. It asserts that addressing these gaps is essential both for climate justice and for fostering partnerships in Africa amid growing global geopolitical competition. Drawing on insights from Africa’s Horn, the paper also discusses concrete opportunities for advancing a ‘peace continuum' approach to climate security. Specifically, it underscores the importance of strategic engagement and accessible, conflict-sensitive climate finance, notwithstanding challenges posed by institutional fragmentation and conflict. Recommendations are supported by examples of UN, AU and IGAD initiatives and case studies from Somalia and Somaliland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Peace, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Denmark, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa

91. Non-state armed groups in the sky

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The proliferation of inexpensive and user-friendly, civilian-grade drones represents an escalating security concern for states. Currently, over 65 non-state actors are known to possess drones, and the unregulated nature of drone usage suggests that this number will continue to rise unchecked.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

92. Essential concepts must be contested

Author:
Felix Berenskötter and Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In this forthcoming chapter for the newest Handbook of International Relations, edited by Cameron Thies, and to appear with Edwards Elgar Publ., Felix Berenskötter and Stefano Guzzini provide a methodology for how to use concept analysis for theoretical and political critique. 'Contested essential concepts' discusses the nature of concepts and of different forms of theoretical contestation, namely (1) contesting often tacit assumptions in political and normative theorizations, (2) contextualizing (and 'provincializing') the formulation of ideal-types in empirical theorizations, and (3) problematizing the use of concepts in political practice. The paper concludes by showing that meaningful contestation requires a capacity of translation.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

93. The Polish Economy 2023 and Beyond: How to Mend Home Loans

Author:
Andrzej Reich, Dariusz Filar, and Michal Polasik
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The subject of this publication, reflecting the discussion held between experts on 30 March 2023, is that of housing loans in Poland. The publication focuses primarily on discussing the state of mortgages (at the end of the first quarter of 2023). This state is the effect of (a) legislation, (b) institutional solutions, (c) past processes in the financing of housing loans, and recently also (d) the high level of inflation dampening both lending by the banks and the level of interest among bank customers. The publication's second purpose is to present recommendations which, once put into effect, could rectify today’s lamentable situation. All of the proposals presented in this publication lead to one general recommendation: the answer to the current shortcomings lies not in isolated, single changes; what is essential is a new system for the market. This new system should be (a) flexible, (b) free of legal risk while at the same time (c) better protected against market risk, and (d) it should also contain a more comprehensive range of products; on this market (e) the state, as the regulator, should intervene ex-ante and not only ex-post (as has been the case in Poland for the last 20 years), while (f) customers should have the essential minimum of financial knowledge, first and foremost regarding awareness of the risk related to, which by their very nature are long-term loans.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Interest Rates, Risk, Mortgages, Banking, Loans, and Financial Education
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

94. A battle against time – and against Putin’s Russia

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With Putin’s war against Ukraine about to enter its third year, the EU’s enlargement policy remains at the top of its foreign policy priorities, with the focus being on both Ukraine and Moldova. This is following the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with both countries. But where does this leave the countries of the Western Balkans and their very long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago? Will these countries’ hopes for much needed political momentum in their accession prospects be fulfilled during 2024, despite the repeated delays and the EU’s failure to respect its commitments to the region over the past few years? With elections taking place across Europe offering fertile ground for Russia to deploy its arsenal of disinformation tactics, time is not on the EU’s side. To counter Russian attempts to influence developments in the region, as well as to reverse the dangerous trend of backsliding in democratic and rule of law reforms, the EU will need to adopt a more robust, consistent and determined approach towards the Western Balkans. Without any further delay, it needs to set out a much needed geopolitical and security direction for its enlargement policies in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

95. The State of EU-US Digital and Energy Cooperation

Author:
Federica Marconi, Wolfgang Münchau, and Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In a time of rapid technological advancements and changing energy paradigms, the European Union and the United States are trying to coordinate their efforts to navigate the complexities of an ever-evolving landscape. Transatlantic dialogues and cooperative endeavours are key mechanisms for mitigating tensions and fostering a common assessment of the opportunities and risks arising from these advancements. Critical in this regard are the problems of governance emanating from technological development and its consequences in the digital sphere as well as the delicate balance between security, competitiveness and environmental targets in the energy dimension.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Digital Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

96. The Future of the Belt and Road in Europe: How China’s Connectivity Project is Being Reconfigured across the Old Continent – and What It Means for the Euro-Atlantic Alliance

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has entered the twilight zone in the old continent, following a deterioration of bilateral relations between the EU member states and China over the last years. Italy’s official exit from the BRI at the end of 2023 was a further blow to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy. Yet, the BRI in Europe is being reconfigured rather than being terminated. In Western Europe, the BRI is moving away from physical infrastructure projects and investment in industrial assets – the latter being increasingly protected from Chinese takeovers by both national and EU legislation – to financial and monetary connectivity. This shift is welcomed by various European actors, including some policymakers at the national level, eurozone institutions and major banks. Concurrently, most of Eastern European countries continue to promote BRI projects and seek to attract Chinese investments, suggesting that there is a two-speed Europe when it comes to China, both in terms of geography and sectors.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Currency
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

97. Challenges to Transatlantic Digital Infrastructure: An EU Perspective

Author:
Anselm Küsters, André Wolf, and Eleonora Poli
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Recent disruptions in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere highlight the integral role of digital and physical conduits such as gas pipelines, telecommunications cables and undersea data cables in maintaining European connectivity and security. Overall, the EU’s responses to emerging challenges to its digital sovereignty, particularly from China and Russia, aim to enhance the security and resilience of its digital landscape, from the Global Gateway Strategy to the Gaia-X project. However, the complexity of the submarine cable infrastructure requires a broader and more holistic assessment of the opportunities and obstacles to ensuring the uninterrupted flow of information across borders. Ultimately, a concerted transatlantic effort is needed to strengthen the backbone of Europe’s digital infrastructure against both man-made and natural adversities, thereby securing a future where sovereignty and resilience are paramount for both the EU and the US.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, European Union, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

98. Transatlantic Tech Bridge: Digital Infrastructure and Subsea Cables, a US Perspective

Author:
Julia Tréhu and Megan Roberts
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The importance of digital infrastructure for global communication and connectivity is only growing. Within this varied sector, subsea cables play a central role in ensuring seamless internet traffic globally. What are the US’s strategic and economic interests in digital infrastructure, particularly subsea cables? Within the context of larger economic and geopolitical competition, US policy is multifaceted, from aiming to secure the physical security of infrastructure and guarding against espionage and technology leakage, to boosting economic competitiveness and supporting domestic firms. Overall, digital infrastructure, and undersea cables in particular, are a key element of a larger US strategy of outcompeting China. Although evaluations among allies of the relative threat posed by China and Chinese-owned digital infrastructure vary, broadly shared goals of resiliency, security, and increased connectivity mean there are potential areas for deeper EU-US cooperation, including partnerships with third countries, that align with their respective strategic visions and represent a solid base for further transatlantic coordination.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

99. Transatlantic Cooperation on Semiconductors: A US Perspective

Author:
Julia Tréhu
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Semiconductors are essential for the global economy, but recent supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have highlighted new risks, leading to new policy approaches. US semiconductor strategy centres around three objectives. First, the funding provided through the CHIPS and Science Act is part of a larger push to strengthen domestic industry and manufacturing. Second, the US seeks to deny strategic adversaries of key technology through export controls. And third, it aims to secure the supply chains for critical technologies. The European and American semiconductor sectors are already tightly intertwined, and further coordination has occurred through forums like the Trade and Technology Council. But challenges remain, including the risk of a subsidy race. Further transatlantic cooperation on key aspects of these new industrial policies can ensure the realisation of shared objectives for a more resilient semiconductor sector.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economic Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Industry, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

100. Chips: EU’s Ambition in a Transatlantic Technology Bridge

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Semiconductors are vital building blocks of digital technologies. In line with its aspiration for strategic autonomy, the EU has recognised vulnerabilities in its chip supply chain, which heavily relies on foreign firms. The intricate relationship between economic security and open trade underlies the EU’s quest to bolster its domestic capacity while enhancing connections with key global partners. Despite the challenges of finding a policy balance, fostering transatlantic cooperation in the semiconductor domains remains a key ambition. To cultivate a more balanced and effective partnership with the US, the EU should capitalise on its comparative advantages to amplify and fortify its strategic positioning in the global supply chain.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe