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4301. Syrian People’s Council Elections 2020: The Regime’s Social Base Contracts

Author:
Ziad Awad and Agnes Favier
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic crisis, the Syrian People’s Council elections were held in July 2020, following two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the electoral campaign slogans launched by the candidates – especially the independents – focused on economic concerns, and made reference to charitable contributions and propaganda from the candidates, the elections failed to capture the interest of the majority of constituencies in the territories controlled by the Bashar al-Assad regime. As usual, the ruling Baath Party controls the majority of seats in the new Council. Certain marginal parties allied with the Baath are also represented within the so-called National Progressive Front (NPF), which is led by the Baath itself. Independents rank second in terms of seat numbers after the Baathists. However, partisan affiliations are of no significance in terms of stances vis-à-vis the regime, since loyalty is a non-negotiable prerequisite for all 250 MPs, and indeed all candidates. Though the Baath Party retains an absolute majority of seats in parliament (66.8%), the elections demonstrated the inability of its leadership to revive the Party as an effective political tool capable of exercising influence by itself. First, the primaries for selecting Party candidates were marked by limited participation, accusations of corruption and widespread objections within the Party. Second, the parliamentary elections saw a historically low turnout (33%), illustrating the Party's inability to mobilise the electorate. Finally, attempts to renew the Baathist bloc in the People's Council resulted in the rise of military and paramilitary figures (with the entry into parliament of retired army and police officers); a growing influence of capital (with higher numbers of businessmen MPs); and the emergence of centres of power outside the traditional Party structure (with the entry of charity and development activists, backed by First Lady Asma al-Assad). This heterogeneity within the Baath’s parliamentary bloc illustrates the reality of the Party today, which appears weaker than it was before the outbreak of the revolution.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Local
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4302. CoronaShock and Patriarchy

Author:
Eli Gomez Alcorta
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
When mandatory preventative social isolation was announced in our country, only a few weeks had passed since 8 March, the date when women’s and the LGBTQIA+ movements once again put a political agenda and series of demands on the table. This agenda is linked to eliminating gender-based violence and inequality, which confront us in every aspect of life. The COVID-19 pandemic brought visibility and clarity to many of the things that feminist and socialist movements have been saying for some time. First of all, that we live in a system that has reached atrocious and unprecedented levels of inequality, exclusion, hate, and discrimination as if it were ‘normal’ or ‘natural’. It is not an exaggeration to say that if we don’t put an end to this ‘normalcy’, we will drive straight towards the destruction of the planet and of humanity. Second, on a global level, COVID-19 has also made clear the importance of the state, once again shedding light on the vitality of state intervention — not just any kind of intervention, but the intervention of a state that cares for people and health and that preserves life. The pandemic has also put care work into the spotlight like never before, shedding light on tasks that have historically been feminised, socially and economically devalued, and which have become increasingly precarious. Existing inequalities remain apparent. It is not the same to experience quarantine for those who live in houses and for those who live in shacks; for those who have work and those who do not; for those who have access to adequate infrastructure such as roads, internet, and transportation, and those who do not; those who have running water and those who do not; for women and for men; for cis women and for trans women… This inequality — which is normalised as if it were a natural phenomenon and not a political one — corresponds directly to the severity of the impact of today’s health crisis felt by different sectors of society. For women and the LGBTQIA+ community, the inequality and oppression associated with this ‘normalcy’ are reflected by the exacerbation of gender-based violence, the increase in poverty, and the increase and overload of care work. The enormous challenges that we face today are how to craft a strategy that takes the current emergency into account and that transcends it, and how to make sure that the impact of the pandemic doesn’t leave us even poorer, more subjected to violence, and more exploited. At the same time, we must work towards structural transformations that disarm relationships of power that reproduce violence and inequality. The role that we have as militants of popular feminism is central in the tasks that lie ahead of us. In our country, thousands of us have met for over thirty-four years[1] to discuss a political agenda for the women’s and feminist movement, sharing with each other and organising ourselves in various parts of the country. We have a history of labour organisation, of fighting for our rights and fighting for our work to be recognised. We see ourselves reflected in the struggle for human rights in our country, in the madres and abuelas[2] who are part of the history of our movement. In the last few years, the women’s movement has gained resounding strength. For five years, the Ni Una Menos (‘Not One Less’) movement has erupted in the streets of Argentina, putting on the agenda the urgent need of public policies to prevent gender-based violence and to provide aid to those who are subjected to such violence, demanding no nos maten más: stop killing us. With the Cambiemos (‘Let’s Change’) party in office[3] and the advance of neoliberalism, these debates of the movement lined up behind a new agenda. When there is an economic crisis, there is also a feminisation of poverty and of neoliberal policies, which hit women and the LGBTQIA+ community even harder, further exacerbating inequality. But the movement responded with organised resistance. The women’s movement led the first national women’s strike in 2016 and the massive ‘green wave’ during the debate on abortion in 2018, making it clear that the women’s and the LGBTQIA+ movement is among the most dynamic actors of our time. Standing on the shoulders of the struggles that came before us and the sisters of our Patria Grande (‘Great Homeland’)[4] and of the world, we must work to emerge from this crisis better off than we are now, to put everything up for debate, and to assure ourselves that this debate comes from a popular, progressive, and feminist consensus.
Topic:
Politics, Social Movement, Feminism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

4303. CoronaShock and Socialism

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In late December 2019, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in central China’s Hubei Province detected cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. In the first few days of January 2020, Chinese authorities were regularly informing the World Health Organisation (WHO) as well as other major countries and regions with close ties to China’s mainland, such as Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan about the outbreak. On 5 January, the WHO released its first briefing on a ‘pneumonia of unknown cause’ in Wuhan. Little was known about the virus, neither how to properly understand it nor whether transmission could occur between humans. The genome sequence for the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was published by the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) on 12 January. Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese pulmonologist who is advising the Chinese government on this pandemic, confirmed human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus on 20 January. As soon as it was clear that this virus could be transmitted between humans, the Chinese authorities acted. Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, was shut down, the scientific establishment in China – and its collaborators around the world – went to work to understand the virus and the disease (COVID-19), and medical personnel in China rushed to be trained and to help break the chain of the infection. Inside Wuhan, the neighbourhood committees, which include members of a range of other associations, Communist Party cadres, and volunteers of all kinds, hastened to assist with temperature checks, food and medicine distribution, and assistance in hospitals. After ten weeks in lockdown, Wuhan opened once more on 8 April. On 15 May, the authorities started to test all the residents of Wuhan once again in order to protect public health and to resume social and economic activities (China shared the results of this test to aid with studies on the feasibility of the herd immunity theory). On 30 January, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared that the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). From its Geneva headquarters, the WHO sent up a flare which effectively read: a highly contagious virus has been detected that requires stringent measures of tests, physical distance, and aggressive sanitation. At this point, in the aftermath of 20 January, a gulf opened between the capitalist states and the socialist states. Our analysis shows four main areas of differentiation between the socialist and capitalist approach to the virus. The socialist approach is based on: Science-based government action Public sector production of essential materials Public action mobilised to facilitate social life Internationalism In the capitalist states (such as the United States, Brazil, and India), the governments have instead operated in a hallucinatory manner, pretending that the virus is either not real or not contagious and hoping that some extraneous factor would protect their citizens from its dangers. For-profit sector firms have failed to provide the necessary equipment, while public action has been hard to galvanise in atomised societies that lack the habit of organisation and struggle. Finally, to cover up their incompetence, the ruling political class in these states has resorted to stigmatisation and jingoism, using – in this case – the lethal combination of racism and anti-communism to blame China. In this report, we look at three countries (Cuba, Venezuela, and Vietnam) as well as one state (Kerala, India) to investigate how these socialist parts of the world have been able to handle the virus more effectively.
Topic:
Governance, Capitalism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socialism
Political Geography:
India, Asia, Brazil, Vietnam, South America, Cuba, Caribbean, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

4304. CoronaShock and the Hybrid War Against Venezuela

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Swiftly moves the Coronavirus and COVID-19, dashing across continents, skipping over oceans, terrifying populations in every country. The numbers of those infected continue to rise, as do the numbers of those who have died. Hands are being washed, tests are being done, physical distance is being observed. It is unclear how devastating this pandemic will be or how long it will last. On 23 March, twelve days after the World Health Organisation declared a global pandemic, the UN Secretary General António Guterres said, ‘The fury of the virus illustrates the folly of war. That is why today I am calling for an immediate global ceasefire in all corners of the world. It is time to put armed conflict on lockdown and focus together on the true fight of our lives’. Secretary General Guterres talked about silencing the guns, stopping the artillery, and ending the airstrikes. He did not refer to a specific conflict, leaving his plea to hang heavily in the air. After six weeks of deliberation and delay caused by Washington, in the first week of May, the United States government blocked a vote in the UN Security Council on a resolution that called for a global ceasefire. The United States blocked this resolution, but even this resolution did not turn its attention to the kind of war that the US is prosecuting against Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela – among others. Instead, it has imposed a hybrid war. The US military complex has advanced its hybrid war programme, which includes a range of techniques to undermine governments and political projects. These techniques include the mobilisation of US power over international institutions (such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the SWIFT wire service) in order to prevent governments from managing basic economic activity; the use of US diplomatic power to isolate governments; the use of sanctions methods to prevent private companies from doing business with certain governments; the use of information warfare to render governments and political forces to be criminals or terrorists; and so on. This powerful complex of instruments is able – in the plain light of day – to destabilise governments and to justify regime change (for more on this, see the Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research dossier no. 17, Venezuela and Hybrid Wars in Latin America). During a pandemic, one would expect that all countries would collaborate in every way to mitigate the spread of the virus and its impact on human society. One would expect that a humanitarian crisis of this magnitude would provide the opportunity to end all inhumane economic sanctions and political blockades against certain countries. On 24 March, the day after UN Secretary General Guterres’s plea, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet agreed that ‘at this crucial time, both for global public health reasons, and to support the rights and lives of millions of people in these countries, sectoral sanctions should be eased or suspended. In a context of [a] global pandemic, impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us’. A few days later, Hilal Elver, the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food, said that she was gratified to hear both Guterres and Bachelet call for an end to the sanctions regime. The problem, she indicated, lies with Washington: ‘The US, under the current administration, is very keen to continue the sanctions. Fortunately, some other countries are not. For instance, the European Union and many of the European countries are responding positively and easing sanctions during this time of the coronavirus. They are not completely lifting sanctions but interrupting them, and there are some communications going on, but not in the US, unfortunately’. On 6 May, three other UN Special Rapporteurs – Olivier De Schutter (on extreme poverty and human rights), Léo Heller (on human rights to safe drinking water and sanitation), and Koumbou Boly Barry (on the right to education) – said that ‘in light of the coronavirus pandemic, the United States should immediately lift blanket sanctions, which are having a severe impact on the human rights of the Venezuelan people’. Nevertheless, the Trump administration has brushed aside all concern and continued with its agenda of hybrid war towards regime change.
Topic:
Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

4305. China and CoronaShock

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This is the first in a multiple part series of studies on CoronaShock. It is made up of three articles on how China identified the novel coronavirus and then how the Chinese government and Chinese society fought against its wider diffusion. The report is researched and written by Vijay Prashad (Director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research), Du Xiaojun (a translator and linguist from Shanghai), and Weiyan Zhu (an attorney from Beijing). These articles first appeared through the Globetrotter service of the Independent Media Institute. The paintings in this booklet have been done by Li Zhong, an artist from Shanghai. At the end of the booklet is an interview with Li Zhong conducted by Tings Chak (Lead Designer at Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research).
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4306. Paulo Freire and Popular Struggle in South Africa

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The ideas of the radical Brazilian educationalist Paulo Freire had a profound impact on popular struggles in South Africa. Initially taken up by Steve Biko and others in the Black Consciousness movement in the early 1970s, Freire’s ideas spread to the trade union movement and to the community movements. Today, Freire’s ideas continue to be used in progressive organisations in South Africa and to guide the work of many people undertaking political education work.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Radicalization, Community, and Black Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4307. Youth in Brazil’s Peripheries in the Era of CoronaShock

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Today’s youth tend to feel lost amidst organisations forged in previous decades. Major left-wing organisations created in the 1980s now face challenges to incorporate them. That doesn’t mean that youth are not engaged in politics, that they are not taking part in collectives, or that they are not forging their own social networks. Our challenge is to understand where and how young people are taking part in politics, becoming collective actors, and sharing their experiences, distress, dreams, and solutions.
Topic:
Culture, Youth, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

4308. One Hundred Years of the Communist Movement in India

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 32 provides a brief introduction to the history of the communist movement in India, which turns one hundred years old on 17 October 2020. Founded by a handful of Indian freedom fighters who were inspired by the October Revolution, the Indian communist movement has a history of glorious struggles and significant achievements. The communists in India have tirelessly worked to advance the rights of the working people, and to demonstrate the possibility of a future without the exploitation of human beings by human beings.
Topic:
Communism, Social Movement, Radicalization, and Activim
Political Geography:
India and Asia

4309. ‘The Politic of Blood’: Political Repression in South Africa

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In South Africa, grassroots activists talk of ‘the politic of blood’, referring to ongoing assassinations and other forms of repression. This dossier shows how grassroots activists and trade unionists have been subjected to ongoing repression by the state, beginning under apartheid and continuing under the rule of the African National Congress (ANC), much of which has never been fully acknowledged outside of activist circles.
Topic:
Repression, Political Participation, Activim, and Grassroots Organizing
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4310. Latin America Under CoronaShock: Social Crisis, Neoliberal Failure, and the People’s Alternatives

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The emergence of COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean has accelerated – sometimes dramatically – a series of economic and social processes that had long been underway and revealed the result of decades of neoliberal policies. The increasingly authoritarian policies, precariousness of labour, and the current social crisis are among the consequences of the neoliberal model, which puts capital before people.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Neoliberalism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

4311. Health Is a Political Choice.

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In dossier no. 29, we argue against the return to normal – specifically in the healthcare systems of the bourgeois order. In part 1, we go over what the pandemic has shown us about the healthcare system; in part 2, we attend to the voices of leaders of healthcare workers; and in Part 3, we lay out an agenda for a new healthcare compact based on the demands of healthcare workers, their unions, and their movements.
Topic:
Health, Politics, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4312. CoronaShock: A Virus and the World

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This dossier on the global pandemic focuses on three main elements: the structural features that resulted in our present crisis (from policies of austerity to the increasing wave of financialization), the most dire and immediate needs for the global working class, and a brief introduction to the idea of the Universal Basic Income (UBI) – including some critiques of the concept and some ways to sharpen the way we think about it.
Topic:
Economics, Universal Basic Income, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4313. Popular Agrarian Reform and the Struggle for Land in Brazil

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This dossier discusses the current stage of the struggle for land in Brazil; at its epicenter is the contrast between two vastly different agricultural models: agribusiness versus agroecology. Key to the agroecological model is the concept of popular agrarian reform, which proposes the full-scale reorganisation of landholdings that goes far beyond democratizing access to land, challenging the hegemonic form of capital and presenting a different conception of and a model for agriculture and agrarian life.
Topic:
Agriculture, Reform, Land, and Farming
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

4314. Frantz Fanon: The Brightness of Metal

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This dossier offers a sparkling introduction to Fanon’s life and work, stressing the contemporary political traction of his radical humanism, and noting that his work carries an ‘irrepressible openness to the universal’ and an axiomatic commitment to ‘recognize the open door of every consciousness’. It examines, in particular, Fanon’s contribution as a theorist of praxis committed to move beyond the ontological and spatial ordering of oppression and undertake a form of insurgent and democratic praxis in which ‘a mutual current of enlightenment and enrichment’ is developed between protagonists from different social locations.
Topic:
Political Theory, Social Order, and Biography
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4315. People’s Polyclinics: The Initiative of the Telugu Communist Movement.

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The Indian Communist movement has experimented with various forms of people’s polyclinics, which provide free or reduced-cost health care to anyone. The epicentre of this initiative has been in the Telugu-speaking region of India, where the Nellore People’s Polyclinic alone treats 1,000 patients per day at rates 40% lower than corporate hospitals and has trained over five hundred doctors who now provide health care across the region. Our Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research Dossier no. 25 focuses on the history of the polyclinics in this region.
Topic:
Communism, Health, Community, and Medicine
Political Geography:
India and Asia

4316. The World Oscillates Between Crises and Protests

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The two terms that define our epoch are ‘crises’ and ‘protests’. The former are an outcome of a world system that has exhausted itself, while the latter are a cry towards the future. Our January dossier is dedicated to offering an assessment of the conjuncture – where is the world today? This year opens up with a detailed consideration of austerity, the bipolar world order, neoliberalism’s exhaustion, and a planet of protest.
Topic:
Neoliberalism, Protests, Social Order, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4317. The Economic Benefits of Vocational Education and Training in the Kingdom of Eswatini

Author:
Gugulethu Mgabhi and Mangaliso Mohammed
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
This study assesses the economic benefits of the Government of Eswatini’s investment to technical vocational education and training (TVET) from 2005 to 2017. TVET Graduates from 12 public TVET Institutions have been tracked to uncover their absorbability in the labour market and, or self-employment. The study finds that the economic return of the Government of Eswatini’s investment to TVET in 2017 is E1,51. This means that for every E1 invested by the Government of Eswatini to TVET, the economy generates E1,51 through the TVET graduates’ activities in self-employment, formal employment, and part-time skills utilisation. With regards to highly demanded courses amongst the graduates, ccomputer studies have been found to be highly demanded at 20.9%, while agriculture is lowly demanded at 6.3%. The study finds that 56.6% of the graduates are absorbed in formal employment, while 13.7% are engaged in self-employment, meaning that 29.9% are part of the 32.4% unemployed persons in the country. However, the level of unemployment is still high, 43.3%. Graduates who were not economically active before enrolling at the TVET colleges have been found to be formally employed, 35%, 14% are self-employed, 2.5% are both formally and self-employed, while 48.5% are unemployed. A majority (58.5%) of employed graduates are from Gwamile VOCTIM, while self-employment is high amongst graduates from Big Bend Rural Education Centre, 44.4%. Unemployment has been found to be very high among graduates from Ekululameni, 100%. The study recommends that the Government of Eswatini should consider promoting self-employment amongst graduates. This could be done through establishing links with financing agencies to increase the rate of self-employment and reduce unemployment.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Governance, Training, Vocational Training, and Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

4318. The Implication of Teenage Pregnancies in Eswatini: A Trend and Spatial Analysis

Author:
N. Dlamini
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
This study assesses the extent of teenage pregnancy in Eswatini with a focus on public schools in the constituencies and region. In addition, the study examines which regions are affected by teenage pregnancies and adopts a Generalised Ordered Logit Model to determine the likelihood of teenage pregnancies across the regions in Eswatini. The study locates the Hhohho and Manzini regions as high teenage pregnancy areas and further identifies mothers in Lubombo and Shiselweni as more vulnerable to repeat births. Not surprisingly, the study finds that teenage pregnancies occur in Eswatini’s poverty-stricken areas - where there are low economic activities and the households are experiencing low incomes. These are places such as Madlangempisi, Ngwempisi, Sigwe, and Lomahasha. Teenage pregnancies occur when learners are idle during school holidays. The government is advised to consider intensifying policies and programmes geared towards reducing or eradicating teenage pregnancies in Eswatini. Such policies should deliberately target rural areas and focus on creating employment opportunities to relieve households from low incomes.
Topic:
Education, Vulnerability, Dropout Prevention, and Pregnancy
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

4319. Financial Inclusion in Eswatini: What is Driving the Adoption of Mobile Money?

Author:
T. Magongo
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Mobile money has gained increasing importance and prominence in many sub-Saharan African countries and as a result, it is seen as a possible key to fast-tracking financial inclusion in developing countries including Eswatini. Although financial inclusion rates have improved considerably in Eswatini, the adoption of mobile money is still relatively low in the country compared to other countries in subSaharan Africa, yet a majority of the population knows about the technology. This study investigates the driving factors of mobile money adoption in Eswatini using a logit and probit analysis based on the 2014 FinScope Financial Access and Consumer Survey. Findings reveal that the likelihood of using mobile money increases with increasing levels of financial literacy, education, sending and receiving remittances using mobile money, usage of informal financial products, living in an urban area, and adjusting income during times of shock. Results suggest opportunities for financial inclusiveness such as designing and implementation of financial literacy education and money management programs, purposely targeting the underserved population (rural), as well as informal financial product usage formalization.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Finance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

4320. Financing Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Botswana Through The Capital Market

Author:
Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
In her quest to further graduate to the high-income status, Botswana seeks to invest more in infrastructure development for both productive and social use. An efficient and effective infrastructure provision is fundamental to excellent public service delivery and access. Sadly, Botswana, like many other world economies, has a challenge of having an infrastructure financing gap. One of the innovative ways to fill this gap is through public private partnerships (PPPs) with the capital market that has excess liquidity. Infrastructure PPPs are complex and capital intensive projects that require project finance experts to advise parties involved regarding returns and risks associated with each project. Various project-financing models can be designed to suit project specifications and they cannot be over-generalised for all PPP projects. Nevertheless, given the tight fiscal space, Botswana now, more than ever, should consider issuing PPP bonds and applying user changes model to finance economic PPP infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
Topic:
Markets, Infrastructure, Finance, Capital, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

4321. How Non-Diamond Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Volatility in Botswana

Author:
Johanne Motsatsi
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-diamond exports in Botswana using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model used quarterly data for the period 1995-2018, to estimate both the long and short run dynamics. The estimated results show that real GDP in the non-diamond sector, GDP growth of OECD countries, transport investment and water & electricity investment have a positive impact on non-diamond exports. While the lending interest rate, inflation differentials, exchange rate volatility and misalignment impact non-diamond exports negatively. The findings indicate that the coefficients with respect to the exchange rate volatility in both models are relatively low, suggesting that it has not had harmful impacts on non-diamond exports. This reflects the emphasis given to a stable and competitive exchange rate that will attract increased foreign demand which, as a result, could lead to export diversification. However, Botswana’s export structure is still undiversified, despite efforts made to diversify the sector. To achieve the national objectives of sustainable export and economic diversification, the policy should continue encouraging a stable and competitive exchange rate. Other policies intended to boost export growth should focus on: expanding the production base of the non-diamond sector, committing more investment in the transport sector, and improving water & electricity infrastructure.
Topic:
Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Exports, and Diamonds
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

4322. Ordinary Shareholders’ Rights Protection in Botswana

Author:
Ratang Sedimo
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This study seeks to examine institutional frameworks that exist in Botswana to protect the rights of ordinary shareholders. There is no literature on the subject matter in the context of Botswana; hence this study attempts to fill in the literature gap. The study uses a variety of data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews, the Choppies case study and lessons learnt from other jurisdictions. Findings reveal that ordinary shareholders’ rights protection involves the use of institutional frameworks. In Botswana, existing frameworks are not adequate to protect ordinary shareholders’ rights. Furthermore, the study shows that ordinary shareholders in Botswana are mainly exposed to risks of losing their investments, partially or entirely, in case of non-compliance to regulatory requirements as shown by the reduction in Choppies’ stock price from P1.20 to P0.40 between years 2012 and 2018. The study suggests that the existing institutional frameworks should be reviewed to ensure adequate protection of ordinary shareholders’ rights.
Topic:
Economy, Institutions, and Shareholder Value
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

4323. Key Drivers of Industrial Growth A Case Study of Botswana’s Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The paper examines the key determinants of industrial growth in Botswana, using manufacturing sector value added as the proxy for industrial growth. It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach using annual time series data for the period 1983 to 2015. Empirical results show that industrial growth is driven by financial sector development, human capital development, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Specifically, domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP and secondary school enrolment ratio are found to be significantly related to manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP both in the long run and short run. While the relationship is limited to long run for total trade to GDP, it only exits in the short run for FDI net inflows. The study therefore recommends that policy makers should design and ensure proper implementation of financial sector development strategies that can help ease access to credit for manufacturing enterprises in the country. There is also a need for a holistic approach in the design and implementation of innovation and human resource development policies in order to provide a conducive environment for skills acquisition, innovation and technological advancements in the manufacturing sector. Trade policies and export promotion strategies should heighten productivity and value addition in the manufacturing sector, so as to make local firms internationally competitive. Finally, with regards to FDI, the Government of Botswana should create an environment that could entice multinationals to invest in the local manufacturing industry. This, however, should be coupled with protectionist policies to avoid crowding out local manufacturers and exposing them to foreign competition.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

4324. Whistleblowing in Botswana’s Construction Industry: A Public and Private Sector Perspective

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The construction industry (CI) is considered one of the most corrupt both internationally and regionally. Therefore, this study examined the views and attitudes of professionals in Botswana’s CI towards the role whistleblowing (or protected disclosure) can play in curbing corruption in the sector. A convergent mixed methods approach was adopted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from the construction industry. Furthermore, a self-administered survey was utilised to collect quantitative data from 117 construction firms. Data revealed that there was little awareness of whistleblowing legislation. Fear of retaliation or punishment and job loss, and a lack of education on whistleblowing were identified as some of the most substantial barriers to effective whistleblowing in the industry. From a public policy perspective, it is recommended that an emphasis be placed on improving levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in the construction sector. In addition, there should be consideration to amend the Whistleblowing Act 2016 to include construction industry regulators, the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board, and private media amongst the list of institutions authorised to receive reports of impropriety in order to extend the scope of legal protection to whistleblowers in the sector. Recommendations for further research are provided.
Topic:
Corruption, Public Sector, Private Sector, Whistle Blowing, and Construction
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

4325. Deposits Made “Sacred”: The Dangerous Red Line of Lebanon’s Elites

Author:
Mounir Mahmalat
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Facing the ashes of an economic model based on sectarianism and cronyism, Lebanon currently endures a perfect storm of overlapping financial, economic, and political crises. Since its inauguration on January 31, 2020, the technocratic government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, aided by international advisors, elaborated an “economic rescue plan” to explore options for recovery. Leaked as a preliminary version in early April, the plan offers a sobering analysis of Lebanon’s economic realities. The plan exposes Lebanon’s present-day power struggle between traditional communal elites and a reformist protest movement. While some assumptions and projections are questionable or left unexplained, in conclusion, the plan depicts as inevitable a contribution of large deposits in the form of “bail-in’s” to cover losses only in the banking sector twice as large as the national economy. In such a scenario, a part of the largest deposits could be transformed into bank equity or placed into a dedicated fund to be replenished with reclaimed “stolen funds.” While some assumptions and projections are questionable or left unexplained, the plan makes visible the power struggle between an elite trying to preserve its interests in the status quo and a reformist protest movement. As a major conclusion, the plan depicts as inevitable a contribution of large deposits in the form of “bail-in’s” to cover losses only in the banking sector twice as large as the national economy. In such a scenario, a part of the largest deposits could be transformed into bank equity or placed into a dedicated fund to be replenished with reclaimed “stolen funds.” Communal elites and party leaders didn’t spare strong words to denounce that plan. While Nabieh Berri unceremoniously declared deposits as “sacred”, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri prophesied “economic suicide” when deposits would be used to cover banks’ losses (assumed that much more could be murdered in the economy). Other leaders from all political parties followed suit, including Hezbollah and the Progressive Socialist Party. Liquidity injections into the banking system in a “bail-out” scenario should leave deposits untouched and be financed largely by privatization of state assets. Despite the high stakes at play for politicians’ bank accounts and the legal complexity of bail-ins, this unusual unity is not trivial to explain. For sure, by accepting any cut on deposits, elites would admit political defeat and declare a 30-year legacy of economic policies as a miserable failure.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Elites, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon