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151. The Factors That Matter: A Formula for Understanding China’s Use of Force Calculus Over Taiwan

Author:
Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the United States and China enter a prolonged period of instability and tension, how and under what circumstances China may use force, or, alternatively, be deterred from using force, has become of crucial importance to U.S. policymakers seeking to avoid conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While the United States can draw on its experience gauging threats and making difficult strategic calculations during the Cold War rivalry with the Soviet Union, the emerging strategic rivalry with China is still in its early stages. The question of how to deter conflict with the PRC will be an increasingly important factor in the strategic calculations in Beijing and Washington, especially in times of heightened instability and crisis between the two powers. This, in turn, raises enormous and complex questions for U.S. policy regarding U.S.-China strategic stability, U.S.-China crisis management, and strategic and conventional deterrence vis-à-vis China. In spite of this emergent challenge, critical gaps remain in the Western understanding of PRC deterrence concepts. Most importantly, and most urgently, there is little understanding of how or why China may be deterred from resorting to military force in the event of a serious confrontation with the United States. To address these critical gaps, this paper explores China’s approach to deterrence in the military and diplomatic domain, in order to inform U.S. understanding of how it might deter China in a crisis or conflict. In particular, this paper introduces a set of key variables that matter most to China’s leadership in contemplating using force to “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China. This study develops a methodological formula that can be used by policy-makers and academics interested in understanding what has deterred Chinese leaders from using force against Taiwan, and what might cause China to change its calculus.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Affairs, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Use of Force
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

152. From Growth to Visibility: Bureaucratic Incentives After China's Cadre Evaluation Reforms

Author:
Zhuoran Li
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
President Xi Jinping has spent more than a decade trying to reform the incentive system of China's bureaucracy, especially the incentives for local governments. Xi launched sweeping reforms of the cadre evaluation system—reducing the emphasis on GDP growth, expanding performance assessments to include social welfare and environmental protection metrics, and strengthening inspections of policy implementation. These reforms were intended to shift bureaucratic incentives away from short-term political performance and toward more balanced governance. Yet a different pattern has emerged. Local governments, especially at the level of township and county, have increasingly devoted resources to highly visible "spotlight projects" (亮点工程) designed to attract the attention of higher-level leaders in municipalities and provinces. This outcome is not a failure of implementation but an unintended consequence of Xi's reforms. By broadening evaluation criteria while tightening fiscal and administrative constraints, the reforms changed how local officials compete for promotion. Instead of maximizing GDP growth, officials increasingly compete by producing politically visible success stories that signal competence and alignment with central priorities. Because these projects also enhance the political standing of provincial and municipal leaders, they are reinforced by complementary incentives at multiple levels of the bureaucracy. The result is not the disappearance of performative governance, but its transformation.
Topic:
Governance, Rural, Economic Development, Bureaucracy, and Local Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

153. Europe’s “Wake-Up Call”

Author:
Philippe Le Corre
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The European Union's relationship with China is undergoing a transformation. While the EU remains committed to economic engagement, it is increasingly prioritizing economic security, industrial resilience, and technological sovereignty over market access. This shift reflects mounting concerns over widening trade imbalances, China's state-supported industrial expansion, growing dependence on Chinese critical minerals and green technologies, and the erosion of Europe's manufacturing base. This paper argues that the EU and China will go through a very tense period over trade, but that Europe’s lasting competitiveness will depend on addressing structural challenges—including productivity, innovation, energy costs, investment, and industrial coordination—that predate the current deterioration in EU-China relations. Ultimately, China's growing economic influence has become not only an external challenge but a catalyst for Europe's reassessment of its own economic model and long-term industrial strategy.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Innovation, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

154. Strategic Shift in China's Primary Aluminum Industry

Author:
Landon Thomas
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In late 2024, the Chinese government surprised global markets by rescinding export tax rebates for steel, copper, and – most notably – aluminum products. Seen by many as a proactive step to diffuse trade tensions with its major trading partners, this paper argues that the policy speaks to a broader strategy on the part of the Chinese government. Namely, to incentivize aluminum producers to focus less on exports and more on supplying fast growing sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, both of which rely heavily on aluminum inputs. Although aluminum exports have declined modestly since the policy’s implementation, it remains unclear whether increased domestic absorption will ultimately translate into greater productivity and efficiency gains across the sector.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Economy, Tax Systems, Trade Policy, Industry, and Aluminum
Political Geography:
China and Asia

155. Implementing Effective U.S.-China Economic Engagement Channels

Author:
Brendan Kelly and Scott Shaw
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the state of U.S.-China relations has undergone significant fluctuations over the past decade, so has the structure and frequency of economic engagements between the two countries. The number and scale of such dialogues came under heavy criticism from Republican and Democratic China hawks alike—with one notable critic famously tying the rise of U.S.-China dialogues to the rise of the U.S. trade deficit with China. Some of this criticism misses the mark, however, and underestimates the value of select, well-conceived communication channels. A valid question is whether these dialogues lost the forest for the trees. U.S. officials consistently struggled to move the needle on big trade and investment issues, absent large carrots and sticks, such as WTO accession or significant tariffs. The U.S. government needs to exercise discipline in ensuring that dialogue mechanisms advance U.S. national interests and are not used by China to distract from or delay meaningful progress on core issues. Washington must also be clear-eyed that such dialogues or engagements will likely not “change China” or spur big policy and structural changes. Yet it is equally problematic that from the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 through mid-2023, the governments of the world’s two largest economies, with the world’s most complex trading relationship, had almost no engagement on economic and commercial issues. Just as national security experts emphasize the importance of U.S.-China military-to-military communications to mitigate misunderstandings and security crises, sustained channels for commercial and financial dialogues are critical for managing economic frictions. It is therefore remarkable that for multiple years the two sides lacked any such mechanisms to address commercial, financial and other economic issues. In its last year and a half, the Biden administration broadly addressed these areas through its Economic, Financial and Commercial Issues Working Groups, alongside technical consultations on issues such as export control enforcement, trade secrets, and anti-money laundering. These channels, with select cabinet-level meetings, enabled the U.S. to pursue “competitive actions”—such as export controls, tariffs, and sanctions—while maintaining a largely stable relationship. The Biden administration struggled, however, to make significant progress on the broader obstacles facing U.S. firms and exports in China, even as it was able to resolve certain company-specific issues and defuse some tensions arising from policy misunderstandings. After a sharp deterioration in bilateral economic ties in spring 2025—with tariffs essentially reaching trade embargo levels and export controls shutting down production lines in each economy—the second Trump administration has arrived at a tentative equilibrium with China on trade and technology issues. The Trump administration has an opportunity to strengthen this equilibrium, mitigate volatility, and advance U.S. interests by rebuilding and institutionalizing selective channels on key economic and technology issues. The goal should not be to return to the previous broad dialogue architecture, but rather to establish narrow mechanisms that support U.S. de-risking, reinforce policy discipline, and, with modest expectations, derive economic benefits for the U.S. from the relationship. Cabinet-level relationships with China’s top economic decisionmakers—that also address bureaucratic mismatches and silos in the two systems—are of utmost importance as the leadership dynamics and policy agendas of both governments continue to evolve. Communication mechanisms on macroeconomic, financial sector, and commercial issues have been essential—and as economic and national security issues have moved to the foreground, channels to discuss sanctions, export controls, and investment issues have become necessary as well. The Boards of Trade and Investment proposed by the two governments in recent discussions could serve as an organizing structure for most of these channels, depending on their participants and agenda. This paper reviews the historical evolution of U.S.-China economic dialogues and the key lessons learned—to suggest targeted areas where ongoing communications under these mechanisms can be most important, how these should be structured, and how to make U.S. economic statecraft toward China most effective. We appreciate the insightful inputs and comments on the paper from Craig Allen, Wendy Cutler and Paul Haenle.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Macroeconomics, Trade, Donald Trump, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

156. National Security Without Consensus: Taiwan’s Domestic Politics Through 2028

Author:
Simona Grano
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the past year, President Lai Ching-te’s administration has faced growing domestic political fragmentation alongside intensifying external pressure. Lai’s announcement of a substantial increase in Taiwan’s defense budget, including discussion of enhanced missile defense capabilities, was blocked repeatedly in the Legislative Yuan by the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), highlighting deep divisions over security policy and relations with China. At the end of March 2026, Taiwan’s ruling and opposition parties finally agreed to allow the special defense budget to enter legislative review, though each party presented its own version.1 Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan finally passed a watered-down version of the special defense budget bill on May 8. While many observers frame expanded defense spending as a necessary response to rising external threats, resistance by the opposition reflects a set of politically salient concerns. Among segments of the electorate aligned with the KMT, skepticism persists regarding the effectiveness of increased spending in altering the cross-Strait military balance, frustration over the prolonged freeze in official dialogue with Beijing, and uncertainty linked to U.S. policy — ranging from delays in arms deliveries to broader questions surrounding strategic ambiguity and economic-security trade-offs. In this complicated context, President Lai launched a series of “Ten Talks” from June to August 2025, hoping to use national unity, defense, and identity to build public support for a more robust defense posture. However, rising parliamentary fragmentation and partisan polarization, heightened by the KMT’s shift in leadership and the election of Cheng Li-wun, have so far undercut the government’s ability to finance and implement major defense initiatives (including the proposed multi-layer T-Dome). Such domestic dynamics will play a central role in influencing Taiwan’s domestic and external strategy from now until the 2028 elections. Against this backdrop, the People’s Liberation Army decided to launch a large-scale joint exercise “Justice Mission–2025” on December 29, 2025, mobilizing forces and encircling Taiwan in one of the most wide-ranging displays of force so far employed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The drills took place in the aftermath of Trump’s decision to allow a major arms sale to Taiwan and after the explicit Japanese statements linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s own security and survival. Beijing views such developments as external “intrusions” into internal matters with the potential to accelerate the ‘internationalization’ of the Taiwan issue. Together, these dynamics illustrate how China’s growing reliance on military pressure overlaps with Taiwan’s internal political constraints, reinforcing Beijing’s narrative that China’s military pressure is necessary and justified (in view of the external developments), while simultaneously undermining its claim that Taiwan remains a purely internal matter. This paper argues that Taiwan’s greatest security risk has shifted from threat awareness to political coordination, with domestic fragmentation now constituting the primary bottleneck to defense and security policies ahead of 2028.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

157. Seeking Agency in Uncertainty: Asian Middle Powers and the Fragmenting Global Order

Author:
Farwa Aamer and Emma Chanlett-Avery
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The concept of middle powers is not new. What is new, however, is the speed, coordination, and strategic intent with which middle powers, across Asia and the West, are recalibrating their foreign policies. This acceleration reflects growing uncertainty in the global system: the perceived drift and unpredictability of U.S. leadership under the Trump 2.0 administration, intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China, and the fragmentation of the post–Cold War order. Countries increasingly find themselves navigating between two systemic pressures: avoiding entrapment in great power rivalries and safeguarding national autonomy, economic resilience, and security interests. In this emerging order, resistant to simple bipolar or multipolar labels, middle powers are neither passive balancers nor quiet bystanders. They are actively constructing a dense network of partnerships, pursuing selective alignments, and diversifying strategic dependencies. Rather than choosing sides, many are hedging to secure national interests: deepening security ties with Washington while sustaining economic engagement with Beijing, expanding mini-lateral frameworks, and strengthening cross-regional linkages that reduce overreliance on any single pole of power. The growing emphasis on economic security, supply chain resilience, technological cooperation, and defense interoperability reflects a broader shift from ideological alignment to pragmatic, interest-driven statecraft. This paper revisits the concept of Asian middle power diplomacy and assesses the forces driving today’s intensified hedging behavior. It examines why urgency around partnerships and alliance diversification has increased, not only among key Asian middle powers themselves but also in their expanding engagement with actors such as the Gulf states, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Through select country-by-country analysis, the paper evaluates how leading middle powers, in both Asia and beyond, are redefining strategic autonomy, which partnerships warrant close attention, and how these evolving alignments are reshaping the contours of the global order. Finally, it assesses the implications of a more assertive, networked middle power landscape for the United States, and what a strengthened middle power layering means for the future architecture of international politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Engagement, International Order, Hedging, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

158. Positioning the KMT in the U.S.–China–Taiwan Triangle: Cheng Li-wun’s Early Tenure

Author:
Meghan Morris and Sheng-wen Cheng
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In March 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) accepted an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit China from April 7–12—the first such visit by a sitting KMT chair since 2016. The visit presents both challenges and opportunities for Cheng, who is seeking greater dialogue and stability with China. It also comes just weeks before a scheduled major summit between President Trump and Xi in May and introduces new variables for all three leaders. For Xi, the symbolism of him and Cheng possibly meeting face-to-face to “mend fences” could portray an image of cross-Strait unity that could strengthen Xi’s hand in discussions with Trump. For Cheng, a successful China trip could bolster her political standing among the KMT base in Taiwan, but could also alienate opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters and swing voters, who may view Cheng as “selling out” Taiwan’s sovereignty in pursuit of easing tensions with mainland China. Finally, for Trump, the visit could complicate Washington’s relations with China. Trump will have to walk an even more delicate tightrope of signaling the United States’ enduring “One China” policy with Xi, while responding to the inevitable message from Xi that cross-Straits are “stabilizing” and that the United States should not intervene in the “internal matters of China.” Given this context, this paper seeks to examine the rise of Cheng Li-wun in Taiwanese politics and implications for her domestic, international, and cross-Strait agenda. We argue that while Cheng’s victory as KMT chair signals symbolic change, it has yet to translate into institutional renewal or political legitimacy. Her early appointments of KMT vice chairs suggest continuity rather than transformation—raising questions about whether the KMT is broadening or narrowing appeal within a younger electoral base. It also contends that Cheng’s rhetoric on China and the United States—calling for deeper alignment and accommodation with Beijing while simultaneously casting doubt on the value of Taiwan’s security ties with Washington—positions Cheng to potentially alter the trajectory of cross-Strait ties if the KMT achieves a majority victory in the 2028 presidential elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and United States of America

159. China’s Property Rebalancing: The Long Road to a New Development Model

Author:
Lizzi C. Lee and David Zhang
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s property downturn is now in its fifth year, impairing household, developer, and local government balance sheets. Since peaking in 2021, property investment has nearly halved, dragging on fixed-asset investment, weakening related employment, and exerting a sustained drag on broader economic growth. Beijing’s response has prioritized risk containment over a return to debt-fueled property stimulus. This is captured by the “new property development model,” a long-term blueprint to turn real estate from a growth engine into a source of baseline construction demand and a more socially oriented housing system. Policymakers are currently trapped in a “dual mandate”: stabilizing the property market in the short term while pursuing a longer-term shift toward a smaller, less speculative, and more affordable housing system. In the near term, however, falling property values erode household wealth and weaken confidence, complicating Beijing’s broader consumption-rebalancing goals. The structural transition is complicated by local fiscal constraints. Revenue from selling land-use rights dropped by over 50% between 2021 and 2025, yet local governments face financial obligations to subsidize housing demand and fund the construction of new affordable housing. The most probable trajectory is a tightly managed, prolonged correction, with a true market bottom deferred. As the sector structurally downsizes, its drag on GDP should gradually fade, a cost Beijing likely sees as worth bearing in order to lock in a smaller role for property in the economy. The economy faces the severe downside risk of a deflationary spiral driven by wealth and job destruction. Further declines in home prices would deepen the hit to household balance sheets, while the property downturn is already inflicting significant job losses across construction and related sectors. China’s current transition blueprint lacks mechanisms to fully absorb this structural unemployment and balance-sheet degradation. Any definitive signs of an uncontrolled deflationary spiral would likely force Beijing to deploy stronger market rescue operations.
Topic:
Development, Government, Economy, Investment, Unemployment, and Property Market
Political Geography:
China and Asia

160. China’s Strategy in the Ukraine War and the Shaping of a Post-Conflict Order

Author:
Pierre Andrieu
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Despite ongoing peace talks spearheaded by U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues with seemingly no end in sight. While China might not play a primary role in peace negotiations, it nonetheless has an important stake in the outcome of the conflict. This paper seeks to assess Beijing’s calculus and potential role in brokering peace in the Ukraine conflict within the context of great power diplomacy among Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels. Faced with Russia’s unrelenting military campaign, Washington, Brussels and Beijing have each adopted distinct positions on the war. The United States, as the key peace broker, continues to shift its policies to accommodate competing peace deal demands from Kyiv and Moscow. Meanwhile, the EU is increasingly aligning itself with Ukraine’s position, while China promotes neutral diplomatic initiatives that merely amplify a pro-Russian stance. Because China’s initiatives largely align with Russia’s position on the war, they have done little to realistically support ceasefire efforts. Rather, they are designed to portray Beijing as a principled international actor committed to peace and non-escalation. At the same time, these positions have not prevented China from establishing significant and highly pragmatic relations with Kyiv, particularly in trade and commerce. Politically, however, China’s stance has distanced Beijing from Kyiv’s key objectives regarding the terms and conditions of a ceasefire. Accordingly, this article seeks to answer the following questions: What are China’s intentions toward Ukraine amid an ongoing stalemate in peace negotiations? And how are China’s diplomatic proposals being received in capitals around the world?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

161. Unpacking China’s 2025 Retail Data: Provincial Divergence and Three Structural Challenges

Author:
Lizzi C. Lee, Huiyan Li, and Shengyu Wang
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Despite overall lackluster growth, China’s 2025 retail data shows signs of a structural shift, a redistribution of domestic demand from the coastal to central and western regions, and from first-tier to lower-tier cities. Demographic structure and migration patterns shape consumption. Provinces with balanced age profiles and slower aging outperform other provinces, underscoring the role of demographic vitality in sustaining demand. Consumption upgrading is diffusing geographically but remains uneven. Higher-quality consumption and domestic brand strength are spreading beyond top-tier cities, yet purchasing power and innovation capacity remain concentrated in coastal hubs. Household income growth is a necessary foundation for stronger consumption, but not sufficient. The Beijing case — rising incomes alongside falling retail sales — shows how wealth effects can break the income-to-consumption link. The property sector remains the central structural drag. Although price declines have moderated in some regions, weak transaction volumes and uneven recovery sustain negative wealth effects. Local initiative and bureaucratic KPI design will shape the outcome. Subnational experimentation has generated promising cases for stimulating demand, but durable rebalancing depends on incentive reform. Rigid outcome-based targets risk distorting behavior and undermining the very reforms they seek to advance. A more household-driven growth model could gradually reduce export dependence and ease trade pressures. Yet current progress is limited and uneven. Core structural imbalances remain unresolved.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Retail, Consumer Behavior, Income, and Property Market
Political Geography:
China and Asia

162. Guided Autonomy: America Watching in Xi’s China

Author:
Guoguang Wu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
U.S.–China relations have undergone significant changes in the past decade, moving from deep interdependence to strategic rivalry, and, meanwhile, China’s policy toward the United States has transformed under Xi Jinping. China’s policymaking mechanism has also evolved, and understanding this shift is critical to understanding the broader U.S.–China relationship. This article examines China’s U.S. policymaking and policy consultation system under Xi Jinping. How does policy consultation on foreign relations work in China? What are the most influential policy research institutions in China's America watch? How do they influence China's U.S. policy?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

163. The Gen Z Movement and the Future of Nepa2026l

Author:
Rishi Gupta
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Nepal is scheduled to hold snap elections on March 5, 2026, to elect members of the House of Representatives—the lower house of parliament —which will culminate in a new administration and a new Prime Minister. As election day draws closer, the country is experiencing a monumental challenge: choosing between a new generation of Nepalese politicians and an old guard that is seeking reelection. The forthcoming elections are certain to test Nepal’s 17-year-long democratic journey and could pave the way for a “New Nepal” grounded in the aspirations of the country’s youth. In September 2025, Nepal attracted global attention when the nation’s Generation Z population united to protest a government-imposed social media ban—a move that was widely viewed as an attack on freedom of expression, a disruption of free and open communication, and a threat to young people’s main source of financial earnings through online content creation. Besides the implications for digital connection, the ban brought to the fore larger frustrations among Nepalese youth with rampant nepotism, corruption, unemployment, and political instability in the country. As the protests gained strength, so did the Gen Z movement’s push for change, culminating in the resignation of Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli. These developments proved significant, as nowhere in the world had a social media ban prompted the fall of an elected government before. This paper unpacks Nepal’s historic Gen Z movement by understanding and assessing its drivers and their implications. It also provides a nuanced understanding of the movement’s contributions to Nepal’s relations with neighboring India and China. As a way forward, the paper presents several post-election scenarios and identifies four key challenges facing Nepal’s next government.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Social Media, Protests, and Generation Z
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Nepal

164. AI Ambitions in a Thirsty Region: Water, Data Centers, and South Asia’s Digital Future

Author:
Farwa Aamer
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
South Asia’s push into artificial intelligence (AI) comes with both promise and pressure. In a region already facing chronic water stress, the rapid technological expansion and the rise of AI data centers risk adding new strain to limited resources if growth is not carefully managed. The challenge for South Asia is not whether to pursue AI-led development, but how to do so in a way that is sustainable over the long term. This paper argues that water must be treated as a central consideration in digital infrastructure planning. Practical steps are well within reach: adopting more water-efficient cooling technologies, siting data centers with local water conditions in mind, and better aligning energy and water policies to reduce overall resource use. At the same time, stronger regional cooperation on shared water systems and more meaningful engagement with local communities will all be essential to avoiding competition and conflict and ensuring more equitable outcomes. There is also an opportunity embedded in this challenge. AI itself can help improve water management, strengthen climate resilience, and support more efficient agricultural practices. With the right approach, technological advancement and environmental sustainability can reinforce, rather than undermine, one another.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
South Asia and Southeast Asia

165. What Happened at China's Two Sessions in 2026?2026

Author:
Neil Thomas, Lizzi C. Lee, and Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Last week, Beijing wrapped up its annual Two Sessions — the parallel meetings of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), and its top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Highlights of this year’s gathering included Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report, several closely watched appearances by President Xi Jinping, the removal of several officials from civilian posts and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ahead of the meeting, and the release of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), a blueprint for the country’s development from 2026 to 2030. Below, experts from the Center for China Analysis (CCA) assess the key takeaways across several issue areas. Last week, CCA also co-hosted a webinar on the Two Sessions with the South China Morning Post featuring Lizzi C. Lee, Lyle Morris, and Neil Thomas.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

166. From the old world to the new: Why German rearmament matters for Australia

Author:
Carl Janz
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
When then chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz delivered the famous Zeitenwende (epochal shift) speech outlining the urgent need for change in defence and security policy as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he presided over a military that reportedly struggled to participate in even basic NATO operations. Today by contrast, Germany is the world’s fourth largest military spender and has committed to military and industrial uplift with zeal. This ASPI Explainer explores the factors driving Germany’s rearmament, its implications for Australia, potential barriers to implementation, and transferable takeaways. It concludes that Germany’s rearmament efforts are set to make the country an increasingly valuable global partner for Australia as the two countries pursue a Status of Forces Agreement. If successfully executed in tandem with its European partners, German rearmament will help establish an increasingly independent European liberal-democratic pole in global politics and will allow the United States to increase its focus on the Indo-Pacific. These developments support Australian interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Rearmament
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, Australia, and United States of America

167. The EU-Australia security and defence agreement: not a pact but a partnership

Author:
Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On 24 March 2026, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed the EU-Australia Security and Defence Partnership. The partnership represents a significant step in EU–Australia relations, elevating cooperation beyond its traditional focus on trade and investment. However, as with previous EU-Australia initiatives, its value will ultimately depend on whether it delivers concrete outcomes rather than remaining a largely declaratory framework. This Explainer describes what the partnership entails and highlights what it needs to become successful and impactful.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, Cybersecurity, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

168. The Degradation of Iran’s Proxy Model

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
For decades, Iran pursued a strategy of “exporting the revolution” through the sponsorship of armed non-state actors across the Middle East. Framed as an “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States, this network enabled Tehran to project influence across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza while limiting the risk of direct Iranian confrontation. This paper argues that the model has entered a phase of structural degradation. The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, together with the regional fallout that followed, accelerated the military, financial, and political weakening of Iran’s proxy architecture, contributing to a broader shift in the regional balance of power. Although Iran’s proxy system was already under pressure before October 2023 from sanctions, military attrition, and mounting isolation, these factors had not produced a decisive strategic shift. Iran sustained its influence through coercive networks. After October 7, however, these vulnerabilities deepened. Military pressure, intelligence penetration, leadership losses, financial constriction, and declining legitimacy exposed the limits of proxy-based power projection. Rather than serving as a coherent deterrent architecture, Iran’s regional network increasingly became a source of strategic exposure and fragility. The paper traces this erosion across Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, with Syria serving as an important logistical backdrop. In Lebanon, Hezbollah suffered military attrition, leadership losses, declining domestic legitimacy, and the collapse of the Syrian corridor that had underpinned its strategic depth. In Yemen, the Houthis’ effort to raise their regional profile through attacks linked to the Gaza war exposed the limits of their capacity and increased their diplomatic and financial vulnerability. In Iraq, Iran-backed militias became more fragmented, with factions diverging in their responses to escalation and with many increasingly prioritizing local political and economic survival over coordinated service to Tehran’s agenda. Across these arenas, the paper finds not adaptation but erosion: Iran’s proxies have become less effective and harder for Tehran to instrumentalize coherently. Proxy warfare once offered Tehran a means of deterrence and influence. Over time, however, it generated familiar problems of overextension: weakened cohesion, divergent local interests, coordination failures, reputational damage, and growing vulnerability to disruption. Expansion produced scale, but not resilience. The paper concludes that the Middle East is moving away from a hybrid order shaped by Iranian-backed militias toward a more state-centered, though still fragile, security landscape. This shift may create openings for states to reclaim authority and rebuild institutions less constrained by Iranian coercive influence, but it also carries serious risks, including militia fragmentation, local instability, and new security vacuums. Whether this transition produces greater stability will depend on stronger state capacity, better governance, and sustained political and economic recovery.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Deterrence, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

169. Move Fast and Scale: A Brief Insiders' History of the Replicator Initiative

Author:
Kathleen Hicks and Aaron Sherman
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and former Speechwriter to the Deputy Secretary of Defense Aaron Sherman provide an insider account of the Replicator Initiative, tracing its origins, purpose, early implementation, and preliminary outcomes. This initiative to rapidly scale needed military capabilities offers important lessons for reform, from goal-setting and aligning incentives to implementation, feedback, and iteration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, Military Affairs, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

170. Military Sahel regimes challenged by EU-based diaspora

Author:
Lotte Pelckmans
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
As military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger tighten their grip on power, political opposition is increasingly moving beyond the Sahel’s borders. This DIIS Working Paper examines how West African diasporas in France and Belgium challenge the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and how movements such as the Alliance des Démocrates du Sahel (ADS) are taking high political risks from exile. The paper analyses what this means for sovereignty, authoritarianism and Europe’s relationship with the changing Sahel.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Diaspora, European Union, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

171. Selling the Risks: Lessons on Security Modernization from Canada’s Contract Security Program

Author:
Oliver Jones, Karena Kyne, and Alexandre Picard
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Modernization, a watchword in governance and public administration, is an imperative for security organizations that need to adapt their outlooks and processes to an increasingly unsettled world. Yet rigid processes obstruct modernization.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Modernization, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

172. Intra-urban waterscapes and household welfare in Kumasi, Ghana

Author:
Abel Gwaindepi and Samuel Baidoo
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Across Kumasi, Ghana, households rarely rely on a single water source. Whether or not a home has a formal utility connection, most residents also use sachet water, boreholes, and private vendors - a hybrid system built out of necessity. This is the picture that emerges from an original household survey of 1,791 homes across three neighbourhoods in metropolitan Kumasi, Asawase, Ejisu, and Ayuom, conducted as part of the Multiple Waterscapes in Urban Ghana (MUWUG) project. The survey reveals a striking pattern: the one community with a formal utility connection to the Ghana Water Company Limited (GWCL), Asawase, reports lower satisfaction, more water related conflict, and measurable income losses than the two unconnected neighbourhoods, which get by largely on self organised alternatives. The policy implications are significant. Formal and informal water systems both matter, and connection status alone is a poor proxy for welfare. What ultimately matters is whether the water reaching households is reliable, affordable and safe. Universal access remains a legitimate goal, and citizens are right to demand formal connections. However, the evidence suggests that in rapidly growing cities, where government and NGO resources are often constrained, policy should be grounded in urban realities. This means recognising and building on the hybrid water systems that households already rely on, rather than treating them as fragmentation to be engineered away.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Cities, and Household
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

173. Denmark’s efforts to fight torture and corruption abroad

Author:
Ole Therkildsen and David Lyndorff Paris
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper investigates Denmark's efforts to combat torture and corruption in a dozen partner countries between 2000 and 2023. The analytical framework used distinguishes different types of torture and corruption and their often hidden features and interlinkages. However, both abuses are rooted in their political economies and governance failures. Drawing mainly on official documents, evaluations and international research, the main findings are that both scourges remain persistent and widespread across partner countries; that Denmark has been especially active in UN norm-setting against torture; that links between international norm-work and implementation on the ground are weak in both the bilateral and international activities that are supported; and that impacts are hard to assess because few independent evaluations of impact exist, including in relevant NGO work. Local ownership is essential in fighting the two abuses, as aid achieves little on its own. This is where improvements to Danish approaches to fighting torture and corruption can reduce the current gap between Danish self-perceptions and realities on the ground.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Development, and Torture
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

174. Sweden’s vaccine diplomacy, procurement and distribution

Author:
Rachel Irwin
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how Sweden worked to procure Covid-19 vaccines to cover the needs of Swedish residents, as well as how Sweden engaged in the global pandemic response and efforts to ensure global vaccine distribution. The paper also examines how tensions between national health security and international solidarity were navigated in public discourse during the pandemic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Public Health, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

175. Hawks remain hawks, and doves remain doves

Author:
Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper analyses convergences and divergences in Nordic countries’ relations with Russia since the Cold War. It then reflects on the main determinants behind European states’ Russia policies: their location in relation to Russia and their historical experiences with Russia Since these determinants are ultrastable, the hawks remain hawks and the doves remain doves, and some stay in-between.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

176. From Reform to Credibility: Rethinking How Policy Shapes Investment in Africa

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena and Adedeji Adeniran
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines how policy reforms influence investment, emphasising the role of policy credibility. Using panel data for African economies, the results confirm that improvements in the policy environment are associated with higher investment. However, these effects are gradual and shaped by persistence in investment behaviour, reflecting the forward-looking nature of capital decisions. The key finding is that the effectiveness of reforms depends on their credibility. Sustained reforms over time generate stronger investment responses, while those subject to reversal or volatility have weaker effects. Policy stability does not independently drive investment; rather, it shapes how reforms are interpreted by investors. These findings suggest that attracting investment requires more than implementing reforms. It requires sustaining them in a consistent and predictable manner. Policy credibility, therefore, emerges as a critical determinant of investment outcomes
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Investment, and Credibility
Political Geography:
Africa

177. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

178. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:
Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

179. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:
Denis Foretia
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

180. Advancing Gender, Climate, and Security in the UN Security Council: A Blueprint for Action

Author:
Jess Keller
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security presents recommendations for advancing gender, climate, and security in the UN Security Council and opportunities for Member States and other relevant stakeholders to drive progress on these interconnected challenges. Despite growing recognition of how climate change multiplies risk and poses a threat to international peace and security, efforts to make climate change a standing item on the Security Council’s agenda have failed. Climate change disproportionately impacts women and threatens their security, yet frameworks like the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda have been slow to integrate climate considerations into thematic resolutions and National Action Plans (NAPs) on WPS. The international community must rapidly scale-up efforts to bridge these policy gaps and holistically address challenges at the nexus of gender, climate, and security. This policy brief explores best practices and offers specific recommendations for the Security Council, Member States, and international actors to integrate gender-responsive climate considerations into global peace and security efforts. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Peace, UN Security Council, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

181. Factsheet: Alice Weidel

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Alice Weidel is the co-chairwoman of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD), a far-right political party in Germany and the first far-right nationalist party to enter the German parliament since World War II. Under the leadership of Weidel, the party has become the second strongest force following the national elections in February 2025. Weidel has a long history of anti-Muslim statements and support for discriminatory policies targeting Muslims. She argues that Islam is incompatible with the German constitution and European values, and is also connected to several anti-Muslim actors.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Alice Weidel
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

182. Factsheet: Tomio Okamura

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tomio Okamura is a far-right Czech politician who founded the anti-elitist and anti-Muslim party, Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, SPD). He has made comments that promote anti-Muslim tropes and demonize Muslims and actively advocates for the Czech Republic to exit from the European Union. Following the 2024 European Parliament elections, Okamura joined the right-wing group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, which includes several political parties that support discriminatory policies targeting Muslims.
Topic:
Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Political Parties, and Tomio Okamura
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

183. Factsheet: Jordan Bardella

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Jordan Bardella is the party chairman of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) and also the leader of Patriots for Europe (PfE) for the legislative period of 2024 – 2029. In 2024, he ran for the office of the French Prime Minister. Bardella wants to “curb immigration” and warns “against Islamization.”
Topic:
Immigration, Islamophobia, Political Parties, National Rally (Rassemblement National), and Jordan Bardella
Political Geography:
Europe and France

184. Factsheet: Elon Musk

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Elon Musk is a billionaire entrepreneur and the CEO or top executive of multiple high-profile companies, including X (formerly Twitter), Tesla and SpaceX. He has a documented history of amplifying anti-Muslim tropes, supporting individuals and organizations that promote Islamophobia, and making statements that minimize or dismiss concerns about anti-Muslim racism. His actions and influence have contributed to the normalization of Islamophobic rhetoric in public discourse. In 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Billionaires, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

185. Factsheet: Tom Trento

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tom Trento is an American conservative activist who has a history of making anti-Muslim statements, including promoting a narrative that constructs Islam as a major threat to America. He is the founder and executive director of The United West, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an organization “stoking anti-Muslim hate for over a decade.”
Topic:
Conservatism, Islamophobia, Activism, Right-Wing Politics, and Tom Trento
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

186. Factsheet: Pete Hegseth

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News political commentator, author, and former Army National Guard officer who served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has tattoos that are associated with white nationalism and has a history of making Islamophobic statements. Hegseth has also been accused of sexual assault and has had several incidences of alleged sexist behavior. In 2025, Hegseth was confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Military, Pete Hegseth, and White Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

187. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

188. Factsheet: Mario Kunasek

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
IMPACT: Mario Kunasek is a member of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and is the current Governor of Styria. From December 2017 to May 2019, he was the Austrian Defense Minister under a coalition government of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and his own FPÖ. Kunasek has a long history of tying Muslims to terrorism, fearmongering about “radical Islam” and “Islamism,” and supporting anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and Mario Kunasek
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

189. AI Governance and Geopolitical Challenges: What’s Next after Italy’s G7 Presidency?

Author:
Federica Marconi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Profound technological developments have marked recent years, coupled with increasing geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation driven by rising tensions between major powers. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), have been at the core of global competition due to their potential for enhancing productivity and fostering innovation. The technological race has started to extend also to the definition of global AI governance frameworks, with the United States, the EU and China pursuing divergent regulatory approaches and striving to influence countries, especially in the Global South, that are looking at the existing models for their national regulatory systems. Against this backdrop, international fora such as the G7 are called upon to play a key role in fostering dialogue on how to reconcile these divergent perspectives and shape global governance for AI.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Governance, G20, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Italy and Global Focus

190. Italy’s Foreign Policy in the ‘Super-election Year’ 2024

Author:
Leo Goretti and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This document provides an English summary of the 2024 edition of IAI’s annual report on Italian foreign policy titled: “L’Italia nell’anno delle grandi elezioni”, developed with the support of the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. The 2024 edition of the report, edited by Ferdinando Nelli Feroci and Leo Goretti, features the contributions of a group of IAI researchers coordinated by the Institute’s Italian Foreign Policy programme. The report covers all the core areas of Italian foreign policy, beginning with the relations with the European Union and European allies and those with the US at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term. Specific attention is paid to the two major crises in the closest neighbourhood of the country, analysing Italy’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its position vis-à-vis the Israel-Gaza conflict. An in-depth focus is devoted to the government’s pivot to Africa under the umbrella of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, as well as the relations with the People’s Republic of China and the Indo-Pacific region at large. Structural policies are then addressed, from the defence and aerospace policy to the government’s approach to the energy and climate crises to migration policy. Finally, some considerations are made on the 2024 Italian G7 Presidency and the overall Italian involvement in multilateral fora.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Donald Trump, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

191. Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém: Italy’s G7 Presidency on Climate and Energy

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A main priority of the 2024 Italian G7 presidency was to build stronger partnerships with African countries across a number of policy areas, including climate and energy. Italy pushed forward several G7 initiatives to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and resource scarcity in developing regions as well as to enhance energy access in Africa. Despite the relevance of these pledges, it is still unclear how these initiatives can align with, and maximise the impact of, existing climate- and energy-related projects set out in other fora. Still, the Italian G7 was successful in shedding light on the need for stronger intersectionality in G7 processes – finance, climate, infrastructure, food – and in advancing synergies with parallel G20 and climate conferences of the parties (COP) discussions. Canada, South Africa and Brazil, respectively holding the 2025 G7, G20 and COP30 Presidencies, can build on the lesson of the Italian G7 presidency, especially in light of the decreasing attention that major powers such as the United States are paying to multilateral governance regimes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, G20, G7, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Italy

192. The G7 and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems’ Transformation: Lessons Learned from the Italian Presidency

Author:
Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy put a strong emphasis on food and nutrition security during its 2024 G7 Presidency, designing or scaling up plans to transform global food systems. Although the Italian presidency was able to gather consensus on key dimensions such as the food and climate nexus or development finance, structural weaknesses remain. Among them, the limited representation of Global South interests, the lack of space for civil society and farmers’ organisations in the decision-making process and the institutional rivalry between the Finance and the Development Tracks. While the G7 can more easily mobilise consensus and financial solutions to tackle global hunger, it has gradually lost ground to settings such as the G20 or the UN climate conference generally known as COP. The G7 must align its food-security solutions with those designed by other global partners (the G20 Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, or the EU’s Global Gateway) that can more effectively address food insecurity, while tackling all the barriers that make it too risky for local actors and the private sector to invest in sustainable agri-food systems transformation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, and G7
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

193. The New Partnership among Italy, Japan and the UK on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) launched by Italy, Japan and the UK in 2022 represents a novel partnership among the three countries for the development and production of a next-generation crewed fighter aircraft. A partnership based on equality of rights for and investments by the founding partners, as well as on the principles of Freedom of Action and Freedom of Modification at national level – that means full operational and technological sovereignty on the core platform, differently from the F-35 experience. As such, GCAP presents new challenges and opportunities in political, military and industrial terms, in addition to the programme’s tight schedule and high level of technological ambitions. The cooperation accelerated in 2024 with the establishment of a dedicated international governmental organisation to manage the programme, and the agreement on a joint venture among the three major companies involved on equal foot from the respective countries. This study provides an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the specific British, Italian and Japanese ways to GCAP, of the programme’s politico-institutional governance and industrial architecture, as well as of training issue and the cross-sectorial implications for Italy. Moreover, a dedicated chapter focuses on the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the US Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes in a comparative perspective. The conclusions outline 15 policy recommendations for Italy concerning GCAP.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and F-35
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

194. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:
Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

195. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:
Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

196. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:
Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:
History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

197. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:
Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

198. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:
Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

199. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

200. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon