Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 5 Years

201. Beware of historical analogies

Author:: Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: When political leaders legitimise security policy decisions with a historical analogy (typically to World War II), the analyst and public opinion should be on the alert. This DIIS Working Paper refers to contributions from the academic literature on decision-makers' historical analogies. Crisis decisions by Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin and John F. Kennedy illustrate the discussion, and implications for the discourse on the current Ukraine-conflict are drawn.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

202. Beyond Access: Towards productive inclusion in the era of fintech

Author:: Marie Kolling, Kevin Donovan, and Adam Moe Fejerskov
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: New DIIS publication compels financial inclusion discussions to move beyond access to ensure inclusion improves economic well-being for low-income populations. It underscores the linked nature of household and sovereign debt, arguing that both must be addressed to advance global prosperity
Topic:: Science and Technology, Finance, Inclusion, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

203. Who counts as ‘local’ in conservation and biodiversity strategies?

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and Alma Tjalve
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: What does it mean to work 'locally' in conservation, and how can practitioners navigate the complex power dynamics this entails? A new DIIS Working Paper explores the evolving landscape of inclusive conservation approaches, examining how concepts like community-based conservation, Indigenous-led stewardship, and critical localism interpret and operationalise 'the local'. As development partners intensify their conservation engagement globally, understanding these diverse frameworks and their implications for practice has become essential. The paper maps out how different conservation approaches conceptualise locality and community participation, from collaborative partnerships to full community control over resource management. Through analysing various models — including Community-Based Natural Resource Management, Integrated Conservation and Development Projects, and Indigenous-led conservation — the authors explore how each interprets empowerment, knowledge integration, and decision-making authority differently. The study concludes with practical principles for inclusive conservation programming, emphasising that working effectively with 'the local' requires careful attention to power dynamics, rights recognition, and the integration of multiple knowledge systems across scales.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Conservation, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. Gendered tax burdens in contexts of high informality

Author:: Abel Gwaindepi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This study examines the intersection of taxation, gender, and informality. While both men and women work informally in low-income countries, women are concentrated in more precarious, low-paying segments than men — making them prone to heavier tax burdens, compounded by unpaid care work and limited social protection.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Tax Systems, Informal Economy, Gender, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

205. Ghana’s electrification via rural mini-grids has been disappointing

Author:: Abdul-Bassit Abubakari
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite Ghana’s explicit plans to deploy mini-grids for the electrification of off-grid and remote communities, progress has been slow and disappointing. This paper explores how political dynamics and policy shifts have shaped the governance of mini-grids over time. It examines the evolution of mini-grids in Ghana in three phases: preliminary design stage (2007–2013); active implementation period, marked by policy modifications (2013–2019); and subsequent consolidation under a predominantly public-led model post-2019. Guided by an adapted political settlements framework and process tracing methodology, the paper argues that misalignment between the government of Ghana and donors over governance and ownership models, mediated by the country’s competitive clientelist politics, explains Ghana’s limited progress in the development of mini-grids. The paper provides nuanced insights into the complex ways transnational factors and domestic politics interact in shaping the development of mini-grids with wide implications for debates on energy governance and reform in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

206. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:: Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:: Africa

207. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

208. How China Collateralizes

Author:: Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Sebastian Horn, Paulina Kintzinger, Bradley C. Parks, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned institutions in EMDEs between 2000 and 2021. Almost half of China's total PPG loan portfolio to EMDEs is effectively collateralized - amounting to $420 billion in collateralized debt across 57 countries. We document that Chinese lenders use techniques adapted from export and project finance to build multi-layered legal safety nets, which help ensure that risky EMDE loans will be repaid. As security, they use liquid, easily accessible assets, such as cash in bank accounts located in China. They rarely take infrastructure project assets as collateral, but often rely for repayment on established commodity revenue streams unrelated to the project. Typically, EMDE governments and state-owned enterprises commit to route foreign currency proceeds from commodity sales through bank accounts controlled by the lender. The cash balances in these accounts can be very large; in low-income, commodity-exporting countries, they average more than 20% of annual PPG debt service to all external creditors. The same revenue source can secure multiple successive borrowings over many years. Our findings reveal a previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing, where a significant share of commodity export receipts never reaches the exporting countries. Revenues routed overseas secure priority repayment for the creditor; they remain out of public sight and largely beyond the borrower’s reach until the secured debts are repaid. These findings raise new concerns about debt transparency, fiscal management, fiscal autonomy, and the quality of macroeconomic surveillance, particularly in commodity-exporting EMDEs.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Americas

209. Identifying Mutual Interests: How Donor Countries Benefit from Foreign Aid

Author:: Tobias Heidland, Maximilian Michael, Moritz Schularick, and Rainer Thiele
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align—what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid.
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, Health, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, and Americas

210. The Speed of Aid: Strategic Urgency in International Emergency Relief

Author:: Andreas Fuchs and Samuel Siewers
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Timely assistance is a precondition for effective emergency relief in the aftermath of natural disasters. This paper shows that donor countries take faster aid decisions if they have stronger strategic interests at stake. We analyze a trilateral panel (donor, donor, recipient) of daily humanitarian aid decisions of 43 donor countries following 516 fast-onset natural disasters between 2000 and 2022. Identification relies on daily variation in donor responses and a series of multidimensional fixed effects. Our analysis reveals a bandwagon effect as donors follow their peers' commitments. This is largely explained by trade competition: the more donors compete over export and import markets, the faster they react to each other. The results are driven by government-to-government aid and underscore the importance of recipient-specific lead donors, who are natural first movers. These findings suggest that commercial competition can distort emergency relief and highlight that strategic interests shape even ostensibly altruistic behavior in international humanitarian aid.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, United Nations, Natural Disasters, Trade, Donors, Competition, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

211. Hegemonic Globalization

Author:: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization”, built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hegemon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use international treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel “Global Treaties Database”, covering 77,000 agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Trade, Multipolarity, and Coercion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

212. Hegemony and International Alignment

Author:: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch, and Jiaxian Zhou Wu
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This article explores the interplay between economic hegemony and political alignment. Using theoretical and empirical insights from Broner et al. (2024), we posit that hegemonic states, such as the U.S., foster political alignment, which enhances globalization. We use UN voting data to proxy for international alignment and show that hegemons induce alignment. This data has shortcomings, however. UN voting only covers the post-WWII period, refers to a narrow set of issues, and displays little time variation. As for military alliances, they were not widely used before the mid-20th century. We propose an alternative measure of alignment based on international treaties.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Multipolarity, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

213. Syria, the Druze, and the Crisis in Suwayda

Author:: Nir Boms and Karim Nassar
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Nir Boms and Karim Nassar examine the Suwayda crisis in Syria and how it has affected the delicate balance of relations between the new government in Syria and its Druze minority.
Topic:: Minorities, Military Intervention, Syrian War, Druze, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

214. Hizballah’s Identity Crisis in the Wake of Nasrallah's Assassination

Author:: Eitan Ishai
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: This new edition of Tel Aviv Notes examines Hizballah's actions during the "Iron Swords" war. The Author Eitan Ishai analyzes Hassan Nasrallah's strategy in the conflict, arguing that the identity dilemma inherent in Hizballah's existence led its Secretary-General to misjudge the situation and misinterpret Israel's moves. This critical miscalculation resulted in a devastating blow to Hizballah, raising concerns about its status in Lebanon and ultimately leading to Nasrallah's demise.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Hezbollah, Assassination, and Hassan Nasrallah
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

215. The Contemporary Reflection of a Deep-Rooted Tradition: The Chief Rabbinate in Türkiye and Its New Leader

Author:: Nuh Arslantaş
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Prof. Nuh Arslantaş sheds light on the Jewish minority in Turkey and how its positive relationship with the Muslim-majority government stands on centuries of cooperation and commitment to pluralism.
Topic:: Minorities, Pluralism, Muslims, and Jews
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

216. The New Struggle for Syria: Sunni Power Competition in the Post-Asad Era

Author:: Ido Yahel
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Dr. Ido Yahel examines the intra- Sunni dimension of the struggle for influence in post-Asad Syria.
Topic:: Minorities, Syrian War, Sunni, Bashar al-Assad, Shiite, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

217. Jordan and the October 7th War: Between National Interests and Palestinian Solidarity

Author:: Ronen Yitzhak
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Ronen Yitzhak examines the effects of the October 7 war on the politics and stability of Jordan.
Topic:: Politics, Bilateral Relations, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and United States of America

218. Algeria and France: Back to the Future?

Author:: Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Daniel Zisenwine examines the recent escalating tension between Algeria and France over past and present grievances.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Algeria, North Africa, and Western Sahara

219. And the search goes on: Job search and job-finding rates in urban India

Author:: Rahul Menon and Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: The cross-sectional nature of Indian employment surveys limits a true understanding of labour market dynamics. Using innovations in official national-level labour surveys that track urban individuals across four quarters, we study transitions from unemployment to employment — defined as the job-finding rate — to understand whether those seeking employment are able to find suitable work in urban India. Our analysis reveals significant weaknesses in the urban Indian economy over the period 2017 to 2023. On an average, only 17 per cent of unemployed individuals in any quarter find a job in the next quarter. Job-finding rates are the lowest for women, the young and the highly educated. Hazard-rate analyses reveals that the same cohorts take the longest time to find jobs, with a majority remaining unemployed even after four quarters of job search. We demonstrate the impact of the pandemic on urban labour markets in two ways. Not only are job-finding rates significantly lower in the post-lockdown period relative to pre-lockdown, there has also been a shift in the nature of jobs created, with casual work rising and regular wage and self-employment falling post-lockdown. Our analysis has important policy implications for understanding labour market dynamics and for the design of urban employment schemes.
Topic:: Employment, Economy, Urban, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

220. Towards a New Development Theory for the Global South

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: As progressive governments take office in the Global South, now more than ever there is a burning need for a new development theory that can fulfil the Promethean aspirations of the darker nations.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Global South, Modernization, Progressivism, and Marxism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. Africa’s Faustian Bargain with the International Monetary Fund

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Decades of IMF interventions have locked African nations into cycles of debt, austerity, and economic dependency, stifling real development while reinforcing neocolonial control over the continent’s financial sovereignty.
Topic:: Debt, Development, International Monetary Fund, Austerity, Economic Dependence, Neocolonialism, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Africa

222. Imperialist War and Feminist Resistance in the Global South

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Women creatively resist the impact of unilateral coercive measures (UCMs), a form of hyper-imperialist hybrid warfare that reinforces patriarchy and other forms of social discrimination.
Topic:: Imperialism, Women, Global South, Discrimination, Feminism, Patriarchy, Warfare, and Unilateral Coercive Measures (UCMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

223. Mexico and the Fourth Transformation

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Since 2018, Mexico’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena) has sought to roll back neoliberalism and democratise the country. Though the ideological battle has advanced, economic transformation continues to lag behind.
Topic:: Democratization, Economy, Neoliberalism, Ideology, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

224. The Bandung Spirit

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In 1955, the leaders of former Global South colonies met in Bandung, Indonesia, brought together by a common spirit for national liberation and cooperation. Seventy years later, is there any trace of it left?
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, History, Global South, and Internationalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Indonesia, and Asia

225. The Sahel Seeks Sovereignty

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: On the heels of popular military coups, how are Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger returning to a path of sovereignty while navigating a legacy of dependency and internal-external security challenges?
Topic:: Security, Development, Sovereignty, Coup, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

226. How the World Looks from Tricontinental

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In July 2015, social and political movements gathered for the Second Dilemmas of Humanity Conference and set in motion what would become Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. A decade later, we take stock of our view of the world and what lies ahead.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, and Global South
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. NATO: The Most Dangerous Organisation on Earth

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is the only real military bloc in the world – one whose mandate and ambitions stretch far beyond the North Atlantic and, in fact, constitute the greatest threat to world peace.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Forces, Global South, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. The Joy of Reading

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Reading and popular literacy programmes have played an important role in revolutionary processes, from the Mexican, Chinese, and Russian revolutions in the early twentieth century to today.
Topic:: Revolution, Literacy, and Reading
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, Latin America, and Mexico

229. Europe’s Strategic Imperative: Advancing Sustainability for Global Stability

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Europe’s long-term security depends not only on military strength, but also on global stability shaped by sustainable development and effective multilateralism. From the outset, Donald Trump’s second presidency has placed additional strain on an international system already under pressure, further weakening key pillars of the rules-based international order. Geopolitical divisions continue to paralyse the UN Security Council on critical issues. In this increasingly fragmented landscape, the EU must advance a dual security imperative: strengthening its defence capabilities while tackling the root causes of instability beyond its borders. This policy note outlines six strategic priorities for the EU to advance security through sustainability: (i) implementing the UN Pact for the Future; (ii) helping finance global sustainability through more innovative and coordinated mechanisms; (iii) shaping a strategy for EU engagement with the Global South that reflects geopolitical realities and mutual interests; (iv) delivering on the promise of Global Gateway by addressing operational shortcomings and sharpening its strategic focus; (v) rethinking the SDG framework beyond 2030 to sustain global development momentum; and (vi) winning the battle of narratives through stronger, more strategic communication and credible engagement. These priorities are examined against the backdrop of growing geopolitical fragmentation and structural vulnerabilities that shape both global stability and Europe’s strategic outlook.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, Multilateralism, Economic Development, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

230. Will the New Government Safely Navigate Belgium through Turbulent International Waters?

Author:: Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: “Yes, our country is vulnerable”, said Belgian Major-General Phaleg Bernard during a hearing in the Defence Commission from the Chamber of Representatives in October 2024. The remarks by him and other senior officers stressed the urgent necessity of accelerating the modernisation of Belgium’s military forces at a moment when the government negotiations were ongoing. By the end of January 2025, these negotiations proved to be successful. The new De Wever Government released its coalition agreement and was sworn in on 3 February 2025. As is often the case in Belgium, the coalition is made up of different ideological parties, namely the N-VA (conservative Flemish nationalist); MR (Francophone liberals); cd&v (Flemish Christian democrats); Les Engagés (Francophone centrists); and Vooruit (Flemish social democrats). The national security sections of the new coalition agreement are spread throughout the document and can be found in the parts on foreign affairs, defence, and elsewhere. In comparison with former governments, the new coalition agreement showcases an increased ambition and formulates some of the minimum necessary adjustments. The previous 2020 coalition agreement was 97 pages long in total and contained 2 pages on defence, 5 pages on foreign affairs, and 2 on development. The new 2025 agreement is 199 pages long and contains 8 pages on defence and 11 pages on foreign affairs and development.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

231. The EU Campaign against Gender Stereotypes: Ideas, Interests and Individual Freedom

Author:: Sophie Heine
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: It is a sad fact that inequalities between men and women are still prevalent in the EU and impacts on numerous aspects of women’s lives (pay gap, domestic violence, childcare, careers, overall income…). However, the 2020-2025 gender equality strategy of the EU has reached certain results. It prolongs the progress made by the EU in that area over the last decades, thanks to legislation, gender mainstreaming (integration of the gender perspective into all other policies) and particular measures to empower women. According to the commission, positive trends are the following: higher number of women in the labour market and better education and training, even if the commission admits that even on the labour market there is still progress to be made. Thus, women are still over-represented in lower paid sectors and under-represented in decision-making positions. The EU Gender Equality Strategy aims to contribute to the Union of Equality advocated by the first Von der Leyen Commission with policy goals and actions to progress towards a gender-equal Europe by 2025. This long-term goal is defined as “a Union where women and men, girls and boys, in all their diversity, are free to pursue their chosen path in life, have equal opportunities to thrive, and can equally participate in and lead our European society.”
Topic:: European Union, Women, Institutions, Empowerment, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Europe

232. Financial Influence Operations in the Hybrid Threats Spectrum

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This paper examines the Hybrid Threats posed by perfectly legal and legitimate financial markets operations to national security through a variety of legal routes including acquisitions of intellectual property (IPs), E.S.G. regulations, Activist Investors and others. Focus has hitherto been on macro-measures, such as Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Screening, sanctions compliance, Anti-Money Laundering (“AML”), Counter-Terrorism financing (“C-TF”), supply chain security, raw materials and the like. However, very little attention has been paid to micro-level financial and economic security threats through legal and legitimate financial markets operations. In other words, Why spy when you can buy. To achieve economic and financial security in the interest of national security and maintaining military capability superiority, such micro-financial markets operations in the Hybrid Threats spectrum, i.e., in the financial markets, must be tackled to prevent, inter alia, critical technology leak; as well as to enable greater investments in military capabilities, which have become a key defence, security and Strategic Autonomy priority. The fovus on macro-measure, in other words, is insufficient to achieve the objectives of economic and national security and must be urgently augmented by microlevel financial markets measures and awareness beyond AML and C-TF.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Hybrid Threats, and Influence
Political Geography:: Europe

233. Understanding Uganda’s (ambiguous) actions in Eastern DRC: Military interventions to protect roads and trade?

Author:: Kristof Titeca and Giovanni Salvaggio
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Much attention has been given to the role of Rwanda in the conflict in Eastern DRC, and its support to M23. Much less attention has been given to the role of Uganda. In this briefing, we aim to fill this gap. We will show how that Uganda’s presence in Eastern DRC has strong economic under- and overtones: much of Uganda’s actions are centered around protecting trade and roads in Eastern DRC. This builds on historical relations between Uganda and Congolese traders – particularly the Nande and Hema business community – with whom it had been discussing these issues in the years prior to their military intervention. In doing so, Uganda primarily protects its own interests, and has ambiguous relations with all key-actors in the conflict – M23, Kigali and Kinshasa. We will show this by first explaining the broader history of economic relations between Uganda and Eastern DRC, and second, link this to its current actions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Trade, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central Africa

234. The Environmental Crisis Is a Capitalist Crisis

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: One of humanity’s greatest challenges today is the environmental crisis, which threatens our very existence. Our latest dossier explores its class character, showing that the climate catastrophe is a product of capitalism’s relentless drive for accumulation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Capitalism, and Class
Political Geography:: Global Focus

235. The Mediterranean Region and the New International Context. Current trends and future challenges

Author:: Andrea Noferini
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This report addresses two main questions: What are the main current challenges in the Mediterranean region? And, which economic, political and social aspects of the Mediterranean region are unlikely to change in the short-to-medium term? To answer the questions, the report considers the framework of the 2030 Agenda and the implementation of the SDGs in the Mediterranean region. First, the Agenda remains the common and shared vision towards sustainability, officially endorsed by the United Nations (UN). Secondly, the monitoring process of the Agenda provides the most up-todate evidence, thanks to reliable figures and data produced by the main statistical offices and international organisations. Methodologically, instead of considering all the 17 SDGs, the report uses the 5P Principles framework that allows a more systemic analysis (People, Planet, Prosperity, Peace, and Partnership). Given the nature of the report, the goal is not to be exhaustive but to select some of the most salient challenges that will affect the Mediterranean region in the coming years.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, United Nations, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

236. European Natural Gas through the 2020s: the Decade of Extremes, Contradictions and Continuing Uncertainties

Author:: Yaroslav Melekh, James Dixon, Katrina Salmon, and Michael Grubb
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The European gas system has entered a structurally volatile phase defined by post energy crisis overbuild, dislocated demand trajectories, and a decoupling mandate under REPowerEU. This paper interrogates the contradictions between fossil lock-in through LNG import capacity and overcontracting, and policy-driven demand reduction. The EU’s pivot to flexible LNG procurement exposes pricing to global volatility, while decarbonisation hinges on electrification, demand-side retrofits and hydrogen feasibility—each encumbered by cost, infrastructure lag, and political friction. We assess Europe’s gas outlook through the decade’s residual volatility, policy ambivalence, and the emerging global LNG oversupply regime — a clash with geopolitical energy security imperatives, domestic backlashes against capitalintensive green technologies and market inertia. We argue that Europe’s energy system now operates in a zone of structural ambiguity—where security, sovereignty, economy and climate ambition remain deeply entangled, but as yet far from operationally aligned.
Topic:: European Union, Energy, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: Europe

237. Steering Technological Progress

Author:: Anton Korinek and Joseph Stiglitz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Rapid progress in new technologies such as AI has led to widespread anxiety about adverse labor market impacts. This paper asks how to guide innovative efforts so as to increase labor demand and create betterpaying jobs while also evaluating the limitations of such an approach. We develop a theoretical framework to identify the properties that make an innovation desirable from the perspective of workers, including its technological complementarity to labor, the factor share of labor in producing the goods involved, and the relative income of the affected workers. Applications include robot taxation, factor-augmenting progress, and task automation. We find that steering technology becomes more desirable the less efficient social safety nets are. If technological progress devalues labor, the desirability of steering is at first increased, but beyond a critical threshold, it becomes less effective, and policy should shift toward greater redistribution. If labor's economic value diminishes in the future, progress should increasingly focus on enhancing human well-being rather than labor productivity.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

238. AI, Antitrust & Privacy

Author:: Maurice E. Stucke
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping how companies profile individuals, create and target ads, and influence behavior—often in ways that undermine privacy, autonomy, and democracy. This article explores a critical but overlooked question: how AI affects the relationship between competition and privacy. Increased competition in the AI supply chain may seem like a solution to Big Tech’s dominance, but when firms are rewarded for surveillance and manipulation, more competition can actually make things worse. Drawing on recent market trends and twenty state privacy laws, the Article shows how the existing legal frameworks—even those designed to protect privacy—fall short and may unintentionally entrench the power of few data-opolies. It argues that privacy and competition must be addressed together, not in silos, and offers specific legislative reforms to help align business incentives with public interests. Without stronger guardrails, AI risks accelerating a race to the bottom—fueled not only by powerful technologies, but by well-intentioned, but flawed policies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Supply Chains, and Antitrust
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. Inflationary Inertia as a Result of Unfulfilled Aspirations

Author:: Nicolás M. Burotto
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: I develop a discrete-time Keynesian D/Z model in which inflationary inertia arises from distributional conflict between firms and workers. The mechanism centers on aspiration gaps— the divergence between actual real wages and income targets—which, when combined with strong bargaining power, generate persistent inflation even after conventional macroeconomic gaps close. The model shows that equilibrium in real wages does not guarantee distributional balance, and that market mechanisms alone cannot restore stability. This underscores the need for a “social consensus” that moderates aspiration dynamics and defuses conflict-driven inflationary pressures.
Topic:: Economics, Inflation, Labor Market, Price, Wages, and Inertia
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. Kalecki and the Stucturalist View of Economic Development

Author:: Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper commemorates the 70th anniversary of Kalecki’s seminal lecture in Mexico on financing economic development. The first part of this paper outlines the theoretical model underlying Kalecki’s view of development financing. A second part of the paper summarizes the foundations of structuralist development economics in the Prebisch-Singer approach to international trade and import-substitution development strategies. A third part of the paper examines the confrontation between Kalecki’s view of economic development strategy, and the structuralist approach, in the case of Cuba, highlighting the differences between the two approaches. A fourth part concludes with some reflections on the relevance today of structuralism and Kalecki’s view of economic development.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Development, Imports, Land Reform, and Structuralist Economics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. The New Geopolitics and South Asia’s Trade Architecture – What Next?

Author:: Ganeshan Wignaraja, Amit Bhandari, and Aliasger Bootwalla
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: Geopolitics is increasingly intertwined with the economic destiny of South Asia. Even before the U.S. tariffs were rolled out, growing polycrises had hit the global economy, which has been struggling since the pandemic. South Asia seems a relatively bright spark of regional trade and growth. This paper analyses South Asia’s trade architecture in the backdrop of a sluggish world economy in the 2020s, and makes recommendations for closer regional economic integration.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Tariffs, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia and United States of America

242. The Yemen Review Quarterly: April-June 2025

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: On May 6, the US abruptly suspended its air campaign against the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) as President Donald Trump announced a surprise ceasefire. Both sides reportedly agreed to stop targeting one another; each, unsurprisingly, declared victory. From its outset, the 52-day-long air campaign known as “Operation Rough Rider” was beset by problems when plans were accidentally leaked to a US journalist. A rumored ground offensive by anti-Houthi ground forces failed to materialize amid squabbling between domestic partners, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and limited commitment from the US. With high operational costs, rising civilian casualties, and domestic apathy, the campaign was wrapped up with little ceremony. Houthi military capacity, while weakened, appears to remain largely intact. Despite the conclusion of US operations, the Houthis’ military confrontation with Israel remained active. The group’s missile and drone attacks on targets in Israel provoked outsized retaliation – Israeli airstrikes severely damaged several ports in Hudaydah, jeopardizing the delivery of humanitarian aid. In Sana’a, the main airport was rendered inoperable, all civilian aircraft at the airport were destroyed, and factories and energy infrastructure were also hit. The Houthis scaled back their operations during the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict in June, but hostilities have since resumed in earnest. The group also returned to targeting commercial shipping, sinking two vessels in deadly attacks in the first week of July. Whether this will provoke further US or international action remains unclear. Yemen’s humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate as aid cuts, sanctions, and US and Israeli airstrikes take a toll on what’s left of the economy. The US, which funded over half of Yemen’s 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan, suspended nearly all aid in April, and cuts to USAID have affected a number of implementing partners and other organizations. Food insecurity is worsening across the country, and the cost of a Minimum Food Basket (MFP) increased by 37 percent in government areas as the government struggles to contain the ongoing devaluation of the rial, which has hit a succession of record lows amid a lack of foreign currency reserves.
Topic:: Houthis, Humanitarian Crisis, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

243. Current Status of ASEAN Data Governance and Its Implications for the Digital Economy Framework Agreement

Author:: Shota Watanabe, Ema Ogura, and Keita Oikawa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The transition to data-driven societies has heightened the importance of balancing the free flow of data with robust data protection for privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets, and national security. While different countries have introduced various data governance frameworks, including comprehensive privacy laws, differences in regulations across borders hinder data flow, increasing compliance costs and limiting business expansion, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. The concept of Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT), introduced at the G20 in 2019, aims to address this balance by promoting interoperability while respecting national sovereignty. In ASEAN, however, regulatory fragmentation further complicates cross-border data flow. Variations in data localisation policies and personal data governance amongst ASEAN Member States (AMS) create significant challenges for businesses. For instance, differences in requirements for sensitive data, data subject rights, and security measures necessitate additional compliance efforts for companies operating in multiple jurisdictions. Moreover, non-personal data regulations, such as restrictions on supply chain and research and development (R&D) data sharing or mandatory technology transfers, impede global R&D collaboration and discourage investment in certain countries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of data-related regulations in ASEAN and proposes policy recommendations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), set for 2025. It highlights the need for transparency, regulatory alignment, and various mechanisms to ensure smoother cross-border data flow, ultimately fostering regional digital integration.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Economy, ASEAN, and Data Governance
Political Geography:: Asia

244. Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Hydrogen Production for Large-Scale Industrial Facilities in Southeast Asia

Author:: Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Ridwan Dewayanto Rusli, Hafis Pratama Rendra Graha, Srichai Koonaphapdeelert, and Reza Miftahul Ulum
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Making use of hydrogen demand and supply forecasts reported by ERIA (2024) for the oil refining, ammonia, methanol, and steel industries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, this paper studies the carbon emission reduction potential of blue and green hydrogen for these large-scale industries until 2050. Future hydrogen supply and demand under the International Energy Agency’s announced pledges scenario are examined for each of these four industrial sectors, the corresponding carbon emissions calculated, and their future carbon emission reduction potential estimated. The potential of ammonia fuels and methanol for e-fuels is also considered. Levelised cost of hydrogen estimates and various carbon price scenarios are studied to calculate the government subsidies required to help finance the transition from grey to green and blue hydrogen production in the four industrial sectors in Southeast Asia in the coming decades. The insights gained inform policy strategies for a future industrial hydrogen decarbonisation transition.
Topic:: Industry, Carbon Emissions, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

245. Trajectory of Southeast Asian Production Fragmentation

Author:: David Christian and Lili Yan Ing
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This paper examines recent trends in production fragmentation within ASEAN’s manufacturing sector in the context of shifting global trade dynamics and rising economic nationalism. Using the OECD’s Trade in Value Added (Ti VA) database, we construct two key indicators: (i) the input fragmentation ratio (FRI), which measures overall reliance on intermediate inputs, and (ii) the import fragmentation ratio (FRM), which captures the extent of cross-border input sourcing. Our analysis reveals that, unlike North America and Europe, ASEAN has not experienced a decline in input fragmentation since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, signs of import defragmentation have emerged since 2010. We also find notable variation in fragmentation patterns across countries and industries. These results highlight the need for further research into the drivers of these trends, including investment and production relocation to ASEAN, market positioning, industry specialisation, and technological factors.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Resilience, Global Value Chains, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Asia

246. Firm-level Climate Vulnerability and Corporate Risk-taking: International Evidence

Author:: Md Lutfur Rahman and Sudipta Bose
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This study examines the association between firm-level climate change risk exposure and corporate risk-taking using a sample of 50,782 firm-year observations from 2003 to 2021 across 58 countries worldwide. Using a time-varying measure of firm-level climate change risk exposure derived from corporate conference call transcripts, we find a negative relationship between firm-level climate change risk exposure and corporate risk-taking. We also find that the negative association is more pronounced for firms with higher environmental innovation and firms domiciled in countries with stakeholder-oriented business cultures and stronger governance. Our key finding is robust under several alternative corporate risk-taking and climate change risk exposure proxies. The findings of this study could be used by policymakers to enact regulations limiting risky investments in climate-vulnerable sectors or to provide economic safety nets for businesses impacted by climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Business, Risk, Innovation, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

247. Revenue and Cost Uncertainties and Market Power

Author:: Abhishek Kumar, Apra Sinha, and Gazi Salah Uddin
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Using administrative plant-level data from India, we estimate the effect of revenue and cost uncertainties on markup (product market power), markdown (labour market power), and combined market power. We show that historical two- and three-digit industry averages of exports, imported inputs, and oil share are valid instruments for exports, imported inputs, and oil share at the plant level. The results suggest that revenue and cost uncertainties affect markup differently: revenue uncertainty decreases markup, whereas cost uncertainty increases markup. Despite the opposite effect of these uncertainty measures on product market power, revenue and cost uncertainties tend to increase combined market power. This is because the revenue uncertainty significantly increases labour market power. Heightened cost uncertainties reduce labour market power but by less compared to increases in product market power. Given the results obtained in this paper, it is important to make a distinction between revenue and cost uncertainty to understand their cyclical nature.
Topic:: Oil, Labor Market, Volatility, Revenue, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

248. Unhealthy Subsidies: How Much Do Taxpayers Contribute to Promote Disease?

Author:: William D. Savedoff, Katherine Klemperer, and Pete Baker
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Health taxes are a well-known fiscal measure for discouraging consumption of unhealthy products like tobacco, alcohol, and sugary beverages. Less well known are opportunities to eliminate government subsidies. This paper is an inquiry into subsidies for tobacco, alcohol, and sugary beverages, products that are particularly harmful to health and, as Adam Smith noted in 1776, “which are nowhere necessaries of life.” This paper estimates the revenues that could be saved by eliminating two types of subsidies for these products: budgetary transfers to farmers and forgone revenues from the tax deductibility of promotional spending. According to the agricultural subsidy database of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), government transfers to tobacco, alcohol, and sugar producers in 2022 amounted to less than US$10 billion worldwide. In 2023, forgone revenue from nine of the largest manufacturers of cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, and sugary beverages was about US$16.2 billion (about 20 percent of the US$85 billion these companies spent on product promotion). China is the one country confirmed to have a policy that does not allow tobacco manufacturers to deduct promotional spending as a business expense. This policy has led to increased revenues and indirectly discouraged smoking and its ill health effects. By contrast, other unhealthy subsidies are much larger. Some US$510 billion of taxpayer money promotes cultivation of vegetable oils and cereal crops—much of them used to produce ultraprocessed foods that contribute to noncommunicable disease. Fossil fuel subsidies, which harm health in many ways, are about US$1.3 trillion annually. Regardless of the scale, any existing taxpayer-supported subsidies for unhealthy products provide countries with a clear opportunity to save money and improve health. Identifying and eliminating such subsidies is a win for increased fiscal capacity and a win for better, longer lives.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Public Health, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

249. Does World Bank Climate Adaptation Finance Go to the Most Vulnerable Countries?

Author:: Nancy Lee, Samuel Matthews, and James Reid
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: lobal underinvestment in climate adaptation increases the importance of ensuring that such finance is well targeted and well spent. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are the largest public source of adaptation finance for developing countries, and the World Bank accounts for about half of the MDB total. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that World Bank allocation of adaptation finance prioritizes countries that are more exposed to the effects of climate change and less able to adapt on their own. Using 10 years of World Bank projects and the ND-GAIN country index, we analyze the distribution of adaptation finance by grouping countries according to their vulnerability, defined by their exposure to climate change and capacity to adapt. The most vulnerable countries tend to be very poor, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, dependent on agriculture, more fragile and conflict-affected, and burdened by weaker governance. We find that the most vulnerable countries with low adaptive capacity received relatively less adaptation finance than countries with higher adaptive capacity over the period (2014-2023). World Bank adaptation finance meets only a small fraction of their needs. The finance mostly funds climate-resilient infrastructure, but surprisingly little climate-resilient agriculture. The World Bank has greatly ramped up adaptation finance for these countries over the period, but low-capacity countries still get relatively less. Four policy implications flow from this analysis: (1) an expanded IDA is vital as the most important source of adaptation finance for these countries; (2) countries that are both climate vulnerable and fragile/conflict-affected should receive special access to IDA resources: a “top-up” in their performance-based allocations; (3) a greater World Bank upstream project development effort is essential to make it possible to productively spend more IDA adaptation finance in these countries; and (4) increased support for climate-resilient agriculture would yield high economic, social, and security returns.
Topic:: Climate Change, World Bank, Climate Finance, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. Toxic Lead Paint Pigment Exports from Rich to Poor Countries

Author:: Rory Todd, Lee Crawfurd, and Rachel Bonnifield
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Lead poisoning affects one in three children globally, with large but neglected impacts on health and education. One important source of exposure is lead in paint, of which one key additive is the pigment lead chromate. Lead chromate is toxic and safe alternatives exist: its use is effectively prohibited in the European Union and the UK, and is highly restricted in other high-income countries. In this paper we present new data documenting the global trade in lead chromate. Exports of lead chromate are dominated by companies based in India, but we also show significant ongoing exports from high-income countries including the United States, Canada, and Spain, despite these countries placing bans or strong restrictions on its use in their own territories. Many of these exports go to countries with potentially low capacity to regulate its end-use and prevent highly hazardous applications. While the harm posed by any particular shipment or actor depends on the end-use of the exported lead chromate, which is not possible to determine, the volume of exports from rich to poor countries could be sufficient to poison hundreds of thousands of children, harming health and holding back educational progress. We conclude with recommendations to policymakers to end the detrimental and unnecessary use of lead chromate, including to support its regulation through the Rotterdam Convention, the primary international agreement for the regulation of hazardous chemicals.
Topic:: Education, Children, Global Health, Well-Being, and Lead
Political Geography:: Global Focus

251. The European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus: Maximising the EU Guarantee for Leverage and Impact

Author:: Jasper Siegfried, Bernat Camps Adrogue, Paul Drummond, Mikaela Gavas, and Laura Granito
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: With increasing pressure on European development budgets, optimising the efficiency and impact of the European Union’s concessional finance is critical. This paper examines how the European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) guarantee instrument can be strengthened to better support sustainable development in emerging markets. While the EFSD+ plays a key role in mobilising private capital, its complex structure, fragmented administration, and risk management limitations hinder effectiveness. Through a benchmarking analysis of major guarantee providers, financial modeling of the EFSD+ provisioning rates, and expert interviews, this paper identifies three key areas for improvement: (1) structural and operational efficiency, (2) impact and effectiveness, and (3) financial efficiency and risk management, advocating for data-driven provisioning and mechanisms to mitigate foreign exchange risks. By implementing these reforms, the EFSD+ can enhance its impact, ensure more strategic capital allocation, and improve financial sustainability, ultimately advancing the EU’s global development objectives.
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Development Finance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe

252. Urban Refugee Policies and Legislation in Kenya and Uganda: 2025 Stocktake

Author:: Thomas Ginn and Harrison Tang
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Policy for urban refugees in Kenya and Uganda is rarely at the forefront of national discussions, leaving important gaps that could potentially be addressed with engagement from civil society. Based on a series of key informant interviews, this policy paper provides a stocktake of recent shifts in policies, legislation, and practices impacting urban refugees in both countries since 2022. We document several changes, most notably the inclusion of urban refugees in Kenya’s national social security scheme and in local government councils in Kampala, but these initiatives are yet to be scaled. We recommend that organizations advocating on behalf of urban refugees focus directly on access to documentation and, more broadly, prioritize concrete objectives that are achievable under current law.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Resettlement
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

253. China's Investment Pivot and Africa’s Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African “Flying Geese”?

Author:: Charles Kenny
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa, as it evolves from large scale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing. It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and the Africa region; and the potential response of Western countries. It may be possible for at least some economies in Africa to benefit from a combination of Chinese investment in manufactured export and processed commodity industries and preferential access to economies including the US and China if geopolitics allow, but there are many reasons this could fail and the geopolitics are increasingly hostile. A backup plan for regional growth would be wise.
Topic:: Debt, Investment, Trade, Industry, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

254. The Evolving Global Landscape for Nutrition-Specific Financing: Taking Stock, Moving Forward

Author:: Janeen Madan Keller and Rosie Eldridge
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: he global architecture to address undernutrition—a leading cause of under-five mortality—is evolving against a backdrop of global economic challenges and constrained resources. This puts funding for nutrition-specific interventions at risk, at a time when budgets are not keeping pace with growing needs. Despite strong evidence of impact and cost-effectiveness, nutrition interventions are consistently underprioritized and underresourced within the health sector. Three key dynamics of the current financing landscape underpin these challenges: (1) a highly fragmentated architecture, (2) reliance on volatile external funding from a small group of core donors, and (3) low domestic spending. Drawing from relevant experiences in the broader global health landscape, this paper proposes four policy recommendations to enhance the near-term impact and long-term sustainability of nutrition-specific financing: (1) leveraging additional resources for nutrition via the multilateral development banks, (2) exploring options to make external financing more stable and predictable, (3) preparing countries to transition from external financing, and (4) implementing results-based funding to drive greater accountability. Upcoming milestones, namely the 2025 Nutrition for Growth Summit, provide governments, donors, and development partners a window of opportunity to elevate nutrition on the global health and development agenda and adjust the course of nutrition-specific financing over the next decade.
Topic:: Finance, Nutrition, Global Health, and Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

255. Spreading Innovation: A case study on acceleration within the startup ecosystem of Greece, a Diaspora Nation

Author:: Ioanno Sapfo Pepelasis
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Startups do not operate in a void and institutions in their direct environment impact them. This working paper is a first in depth field research of a single accelerator in Greece, a country that is relatively lacking in international rankings for innovation and competitiveness. We chose to focus on MIT Enterprise Forum Greece (MITEF Greece, 2015-2022), the only accelerator in the country to be linked to an international university. We used a mixed qualitative and descriptive statistics methodology. Our main findings are that its accelerated startups and their founders stood out in the startup ecosystem in the following ways: founders were a mosaic of local and Diaspora Greeks as well as non-Greeks, startups had a global reach, with a presence in 20 countries and an impressive share in deep tech processes and sectors, thus enhancing substantially the geoeconomic reach of the Greek startup community. Indicatively among the top sectors medicine- life sciences, environment-energy, and technical solutions-robotics stood out from the beginning although this sectoral composition was not usual among startups in the Greek ecosystem especially before 2019. In a nutshell, MITEF Greece accelerated startuppers stood at the cutting edge of the nexus of innovation and internationalization in the Greek startup ecosystem. How was this made possible? We put forward the hypothesis that this outcome was attained as a result of the following multiple factors: the dedication; high expertise; open mindset; heritage of a culture of trust, reciprocity and strong sense of community (“μαζί”) of the Greek MIT graduates (local, brain drain and Diaspora), who were running MITEF Greece; the careful selection process of startups accepted in acceleration programs; the ample business and technological know-how resources available to MITEF Greece by the vast global MIT entrepreneurship community and its enthusiastic pool of Diaspora Greeks in the USA who were involved in the accelerator and its offspring The Hellenic Innovation Network. Although the case of MITEF Greece cannot be exactly replicated, we believe that it offers useful insights for minimizing the disintegration and lack of communication between support organizations and policies for the startup ecosystem. It is an extraordinary example of actively enhancing internationalization of innovation through commercialization of research results, an important GIFT for Greece at a time of rising deglobalization and global economic fragmentation. This is the ultimate lesson derived from this case study.
Topic:: Diaspora, Innovation, Startup, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

256. From mission polity to mission economy: Making the EU a strategic investment power

Author:: Philipp Lausberg and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The EU's number one challenge in addressing today’s intertwined economic, technological, social, climate, and security-related shocks is a lack of investment. In order to remain prosperous, free, and secure, the EU must overcome its massive funding gaps and become a strategic investment power like its principal competitors, the US and China. While learning from their investment models, the EU must develop a “third way” based on its own multi-level governance, aligning its strategic goal setting and policy design (mission polity) with financial tools to achieve them (mission economy). Now is the time for change. The volatility of US economic policy, the decline of rules-based institutions, and the rapid erosion of the ‘Washington consensus’ herald profound shifts in international capital allocation and markets. An investment surge has already started heading towards Europe. If it adopts the right reforms, the EU is well-positioned to reap the dividends of its model, based on rules and predictability, an open trading system, a stable ‘global euro’, and the supply of strong, high-quality investment opportunities. This month, the European Commission will present its plans for the EU’s long-term budget for the period of 2028-2034. the belief that the EU can meet present-day challenges without significant increases in common EU expenditures equates to magical thinking. At the same time, in the context of constrained resources and inevitable trade-offs, the paper argues for a review of the EU’s public-private financing infrastructure based on four principles of action: Concentration of EU spending where added value is greatest: European Public Goods; Mobilisation of a wider circle of public and private institutions from the EU and beyond; Active building of Europe’s investment market and financial attractiveness, including through the supply of high-quality tradable assets. Cooperation beyond established frameworks through off-budget instruments and coalitions of the willing, if necessary
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Finance, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

257. From Provider to Precarious: How young men’s economic decline fuels the anti-feminist backlash

Author:: Javier Carbonell
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: A new political divide is emerging in Europe: a growing gender gap among young voters, with young women trending progressive and young men increasingly turning to the far right. This paper argues that the rise of anti-feminist backlash among young men is not merely a cultural reaction to feminism but also the result of deepening economic precarity—particularly for working-class men without university degrees. Over the past two decades, young men have seen declining wealth, stagnating wages, lower employment rates, and worse mental health outcomes. In some EU countries, young women now earn more than men their age. This economic decline is not caused by women’s advancement but rather by structural economic changes, such as the rise in inequality and automation, which disproportionately affect men who occupy more manual jobs. As traditional pathways to masculine status—such as stable employment, homeownership, and provider roles—erode, far-right actors have capitalised on this dislocation by offering a regressive but emotionally resonant vision of masculinity. This gender divide threatens not only gender equality but also the foundations of democratic support itself, as radicalised young men often express weaker commitment to democratic norms. To reverse this trend, democratic forces must pursue a two-pronged approach: Address the material roots of frustration through ambitious economic policy: investing in housing, education, vocational training, employment security, and wealth redistribution for youth—particularly men without degrees. Redefine masculinity by promoting positive, inclusive male role models and creating new cultural narratives that empower young men without reinforcing patriarchal norms. Progressive visions of manhood must offer not only critique, but aspiration.
Topic:: Economics, Democracy, Feminism, Men, and Precarity
Political Geography:: Europe

258. The Spitzenkandidat: Time to rethink a failing democratic experiment

Author:: Eric Maurice
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen. This paper argues that the Spitzenkandidat system has not contributed to deepening the pan-European political debate, reinforcing the political legitimacy of EU institutions, or increasing the accountability of the European Commission to the European Parliament. On the contrary, the way that European political parties and members of the European Parliament have implemented the system has led to a more powerful and partisan Commission, as well as a weaker Parliament with less oversight powers. And while the European Parliament—engaged in an institutional competition with the European Council—has used the lead candidate experiment to establish a parliamentary government at EU level, this has created ambiguities over the form of government the EU should have and where legitimacy should derive from. On 18 July 2024, a majority in the European Parliament re-elected Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, as Commission president. A year later, the Commission’s agenda does not reflect the political balance of the so-called ‘Von der Leyen coalition’ that backed her election, which proves that the Commission is not politically accountable to the Parliament. The first anniversary of her re-election is an opportunity to draw lessons from the Spitzenkandidat experiment and start rethinking how it can deliver on its democratic promises.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Participation, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

259. Delivering on Draghi after Munich: A quantum perspective

Author:: Ulrich Mans
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In light of shifting transatlantic relations, Europe must assert greater technological sovereignty, with quantum technology emerging as a key strategic domain. The EU already has a strong foundation in quantum, but risks falling behind due to fragmented policies, low private investment, and supply chain dependencies. While recent public investments and initiatives like the Quantum Flagship and Quantum Pact are promising, Europe needs a bold commercialisation strategy and coherent regulatory framework. To secure leadership, the EU must accelerate industry adoption, align member state efforts, and foster global partnerships, including with the US, UK, and Switzerland. Quantum presents a defining test for Europe’s innovation agenda – and a critical opportunity to deliver on the Draghi Report’s call for strategic autonomy.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Innovation, Transatlantic Relations, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

260. Stuck in the Cul-de-Sac: How U.S. Defense Spending Prioritizes Innovation over Deterrence

Author:: Carlton Haelig and Philip Sheers
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: or more than a decade, the United States has sought to modernize its military to deter China, but it has become stuck in a developmental cul-de-sac that has allowed China to steadily shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific in its favor. Recent U.S. defense budgets have disproportionately invested in long-term developmental programs at the expense of producing sufficient capabilities available for the near term. As a result, today’s Joint Force is smaller, older, and less capable than at any other time in recent history. Over the past 15 years, the average time and cost the Pentagon has taken to field major weapon systems has grown significantly, and the share of research, development, test, and evaluation (RDTE) spending within the broader defense budget has continued to steadily grow. Despite extended periods of very expensive research and development, major weapon systems have frequently failed to enter production on time or in numbers large enough to make a difference for U.S. warfighters. RDTE cost growth has also affected mature programs, where unexpected modernization challenges have interfered with plans to expand production of available capabilities. Bolstering deterrence involves a challenging balance of time horizons: The Department of Defense (DoD) must expand procurement of today’s capabilities to support near-term deterrence but cannot risk sacrificing next-generation modernization programs that sustain America’s long-term military advantage in doing so. As China’s accelerated conventional military buildup places significant pressure on today’s Joint Force, the urgency to close near-term capability gaps has become critical. Reductions in the Joint Force’s overall size and relative conventional capability have opened a dangerous window of opportunity for China. This report finds that the fiscal year (FY) 2026 budget request and one-time reconciliation funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (BBB) ultimately fail to make the needed investments to strengthen deterrence in both the near and long term. Instead, the current administration appears to be falling into the same mistake as many previous administrations by prioritizing costly development of next-generation systems at the expense of purchasing and fielding capabilities that are available to fill deterrence gaps today. Moreover, by pursuing modernization through reconciliation, the FY 2026 budget risks subjecting future modernization priorities to the political outcomes of nondefense debates. Absent a return to standard defense budgeting processes, modernization programs that received a down payment from the BBB will likely stall or fail entirely. There are some opportunities in future defense budgets to produce greater numbers of existing high-end capabilities that can meaningfully contribute to deterrence in the near term while pursuing critical long-term modernization investments. This report’s analysis highlights five major capability areas where existing or near-ready capabilities, such as ground-based fires or combat aircraft, can be procured in meaningful quantities and contribute to important missions in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, this analysis highlights important areas, such as hypersonic weapons, in which extensive developmental timelines and exorbitant procurement costs likely preclude near-term contributions to deterrence and in the long term will only be fielded in small quantities. Expanding the U.S. military’s capacity and capability in the near term will likely require both larger budgets and the rapid development and production of complementary, less expensive capabilities. The United States faces a generational inflection point in how it approaches its defense investments. Rather than continue the disproportionate focus on next-generation technologies, the White House, Congress, and the DoD must budget a sustained pivot to purchasing existing capabilities that close near-term deterrence gaps. While this pivot must be balanced with continued investments in long-term modernization, the United States can no longer afford to sacrifice near-term procurement imperatives. Breaking out of the developmental cul-de-sac will require future defense budgets to emphasize procurement and accelerated RDTE across major defense programs.
Topic:: Budget, Innovation, Deterrence, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

261. Russian negotiating style. When does the West learn?

Author:: Carsten Søndergaard
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Russia’s negotiating style is rooted in power, patience and prestige, not compromise. Russia has consistently approached diplomacy as an extension of conflict rather than a means to resolve it. Understanding this mindset is vital if Europe and its allies are to deter, rather than accommodate, Moscow. This paper identifies seven enduring traits of Russian statecraft that continue to shape its diplomacy: 1. GREAT-POWER BY RIGHT – the belief that no major international question should be settled without Russia’s participation; 2. BORDERS AND BOUNDLESSNESS – an ambiguous relationship with borders that keeps neighbours uncertain; 3. INSTRUMENTALISED IDENTITY – the political use of identity, particularly “Russians abroad”, as a tool of influence; 4. RUSSIA SHOULD BE FEARED – projecting power through intimidation, with respect earned by fear rather than trust; 5. HONOUR AND INFLUENCE – insisting on parity with the United States and China, favouring bilateralism and equating dignity with strength; 6. ZERO-SUM LOGIC – viewing global politics as a contest in which one side’s gain is another’s loss; 7. EXPERIENCE AND DECEPTION – combining skilled diplomacy with maskirovka and hybrid warfare to mislead the West. For the West, effective engagement requires realism, deterrence and unity, not misplaced faith in goodwill negotiations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

262. Multidimensional Energy Poverty for Botswana: Does gender matter?

Author:: Thabile A. Samboma, Khaufelo R. Lekobane, and Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: The energy-gender nexus is a topical issue that has gained traction among researchers and policymakers. Access to clean energy and gender equality are two of the most crucial sustainable development goals (SDGs) that affect households directly. Notwithstanding this, the gendered analysis of multidimensional energy poverty has been minimal in the empirical literature. Using the 2015/16 Botswana multi-topic household survey, this study investigates the gendered dimensions of energy poverty in Botswana, emphasising the disparities in energy access and affordability between male and female-headed households. We employed the Alkire-Foster (AF) methodology to compute our aggregate multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI). Overall, we find that in Botswana, the gender gaps in multidimensional energy poverty levels are more than 10% for the poverty incidence and adjusted headcount ratio. This suggests that energy poverty in Botswana seems to be feminised. However, the gender gap in the intensity of multidimensional energy poverty is lower than 3% in favour of femaleheaded households. Finally, substantial gender gaps exist across household demographic characteristics, human capital, economic variables, and geography. The findings suggest that while Botswana has made significant progress in promoting renewable energy access through initiatives such as the Photovoltaic Rural Electrification Programme, gender-specific barriers remain. The study recommends enhanced policies that integrate gender considerations to foster equitable energy solutions, ensuring that all households, irrespective of the gender of the household head, can thrive in a sustainable and energysecure environment.
Topic:: Poverty, Sustainable Development Goals, Energy, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

263. Tobacco Control in Botswana: Effectiveness of Tax Changes in Reducing Tobacco Demand

Author:: Tshepiso Gaetsewe and Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: Botswana has one of the highest adult tobacco-use rates in the WHO African Region. Despite measures and policies put in place to control tobacco consumption, there is still a widespread use of tobacco products in the country. This is because demand for tobacco and tobacco products is mostly affected by changes in tobacco prices and related taxes. This study therefore seeks to analyse the responsiveness of cigarette demand to price changes in Botswana. This is done by estimating the conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand using Deaton’s model and the Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey (BMTHS) data of 2015/16. The cigarette price elasticity of demand in Botswana is estimated to be -0.86. The results indicate that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes will reduce cigarette demand by 8.6% among smokers. These findings provide the first scientific evidence of conditional elasticity on consumption for policymakers in Botswana. These findings are expected to guide policymakers and those involved in tobacco control in formulating the most effective policies for regulating and controlling the consumption of tobacco in Botswana.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Tobacco, and Price Elasticity
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

264. Russian Hybrid (New Generation) Warfare in the Time of a Systemic Political-Military Transition

Author:: Nikolai Sokov
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: The field of hybrid warfare studies has largely stagnated over the past decade. The term is almost exclusively applied to Russian policy carrying an emotional rather than an analytical connotation. Yet originally, it was introduced to describe specific types of armed conflicts. American military experts coined the concept to capture non-conventional forms of warfare encountered in Afghanistan, Iraq, and earlier conflicts of the 1990s and 2000s. Over time, it evolved to denote complex, multi-domain operations. The Russian military took interest in the idea, informally adopting elements of the concept without accepting the term itself. In Russia, however, its scope was narrower than in U.S. usage. Whereas “hybrid warfare” in the American sense referred broadly to multi-domain operations, Russia’s “New Generation Warfare” (NGW) described, more narrowly, military operations to be employed in the multi-domain context. After 2014, Western discourse increasingly applied the label “hybrid warfare” to nearly all aspects of Russian foreign policy—creating a methodological problem: if a term applies to everything, it applies to nothing. This study seeks to reassess the substance and evolution of hybrid warfare and to make sense of Russian hybrid operations by clearly distinguishing between cases that qualify and those that represent more traditional foreign or defense policy. A more precise definition will help clarify the phenomenon and enable the development of a predictive framework to anticipate when, where, and how Russia might pursue hybrid operations in the future. To this end, the study begins by tracing the emergence and evolution of the concept, then identifies the elements of hybrid warfare incorporated into Russian policy, highlighting both similarities to and differences from the original American concept. It concludes with case studies of Russian hybrid operations and considers how hybrid warfare may continue to evolve in Russian strategy. For the purposes of this study, the term hybrid warfare refers to complex, multi-domain operations that employ a broad array of both military and non-military tools—political, economic, psychological, informational, cyber, and others. Used in combination, these instruments enable the achievement of operational goals without large-scale use of force, primarily by influencing political and decision-making processes in the target country. Typically, the intended outcome of hybrid operations is either a change of political regime in the target state or the strengthening of an existing regime; in some cases, their goal is “victory without war” by disabling the adversary’s ability and resolve to resist. The military component of hybrid warfare is always limited. It may include special operations, support for paramilitary groups, sabotage, and other forms of deniable or clandestine activity. Even more open use of force is preferably implemented short of war. This study considers use of force integral to hybrid warfare and one of its defining characteristics. By contrast, a multi-domain operation that does not include any use of force is not classified as hybrid warfare. For example, Russia’s war against Ukraine cannot be considered a hybrid operation because it constitutes a full-scale war. Similarly, China’s activities in Africa do not qualify as hybrid warfare: while they involve investment, construction programs, and other economic tools aimed at expanding Chinese influence as well as support for friendly political regimes, they lack a military component. Along the same lines, Russian information warfare against the West is best described as propaganda—traditional or modern (e.g., through social media)—rather than hybrid warfare. Nevertheless, information operations may form part of hybrid warfare when combined with other domains, including limited military action. This study assumes that hybrid warfare is a universal phenomenon not limited to any single country. The tendency of the past decade to associate the term exclusively with Russian policy runs counter to its American origins and is methodologically flawed. When applied only to one country, the term becomes a largely emotional and negative label rather than an analytical tool. Hybrid warfare should instead be understood as a toolbox that any state can employ. The nature of the tool does not depend on its ultimate purpose, whether positive or negative. Indeed, Russia has borrowed many elements of its hybrid operations from U.S. practices in the Balkans, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. The fact that the United States pursued democratic regime-building while Russia aimed at the opposite outcome does not mean the underlying toolbox differed fundamentally.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Hybrid Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia

265. The Pendulum Swings Back: Envisioning the Future Trajectory of an Increasingly Asymmetric Iran-Russia Defense Relationship

Author:: Jim Lamson and Hanna Notte
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: Key takeaways (1) Cooperation continues. Over the course of 2024 and spring 2025, defense cooperation between Iran and Russia continued. The countries’ adoption of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership capped a string of other activities, including numerous high-level political-military meetings and transfers of select defense technologies. Iran delivered Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia and continued to assist Russia’s UAV production. Most assistance, however, flowed from Russia to Iran, especially in the aerospace, ground, and space domains. (2) A year of upheaval. Silhouetted behind these general trends, a confluence of geopolitical, regional, and battlefield developments fueled a growing asymmetry in the defense relationship. The DPRK emerged as an increasingly important supporter of Russia’s war against Ukraine; Israel’s campaign against the “axis of resistance” and Iran itself ushered in a new era of strategic vulnerability for Iran; in spring 2025, the U.S. administration began to engage Moscow diplomatically, potentially affecting Russia’s calculus regarding cooperation with Iran, at least in the most sensitive areas; and finally, in mid-June, Israel (eventually joined by the United States) engaged in a short aerospace conflict with Iran. (3) A growing asymmetry in needs. Israel’s campaign against Iran and the “axis of resistance” damaged the country’s military-defense assets and exposed key shortcomings, forcing Iranian strategic planners back to the drawing board. Strategically more vulnerable, Iran’s preexisting appetite for Russian assistance in areas such as long-range strike, air and missile defenses, and naval denial has only grown further. For Russia, which expanded the local production of Shahed drones, diversified its sourcing of UAV components, and shifted to focus on other UAV designs, reliance on Iran has passed its peak. Though Russia may well remain interested in production technology for the Shahed-238 drone and its variants as well as Iran’s transfer of other drones and even missiles to enable more diverse strike packages, its dependence on Iran to meet battlefield needs in Ukraine is presently trending downward. (4) The pendulum swings back. While both partners likely retain an interest in sharing lessons from their respective military campaigns, and while a degree of institutional inertia may propel defense cooperation, we observe a shift toward an increasingly asymmetric partnership, with Iran far more dependent on Russia than vice versa. Full battle damage assessments from the Israel-Iran aerospace conflict, the trajectory of battlefield conditions in Ukraine, and the extent of Chinese assistance to both Russia and Iran, are among the factors that will determine how far the pendulum will swing back toward a more asymmetric Iran-Russia defense partnership. (5) Imagining different futures. Based on developments since 2024 that have affected Iran’s and Russia’s defense needs from each other, as well as the drivers and constraints shaping the defense relationship, we consider a continued strategic partnership to be the most likely future. Other futures—a limited military alliance, a full military alliance, or a breakup—are less likely, though not altogether inconceivable, assuming certain contingencies.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, and Middle East

266. Putin’s New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps

Author:: Hanna Notte
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: Key Takeaways (1) The emergence of Africa Corps. Over the past two years, Africa Corps has taken over most of the Wagner Group’s former Africa operations, elevating them to the level of official state-to-state relations. The new entity emerged after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny in late June 2023, with the Russia-Africa summit a month later a key catalyst. (2) Focus on the Sahel. Unlike in Libya, Africa Corps’ takeover from the Wagner Group in Mali was marked by hiccups, and the two entities coexisted there somewhat uneasily until recently. Africa Corps embraced new openings in the Sahel, deploying to Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as more recently to Equatorial Guinea. In consolidating its presence in the Sahel, Russia both benefited from and actively encouraged the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States and a deepening and widening of joint activities among the three Sahelian juntas. (3) Wagner in the Central African Republic. In the Central African Republic (CAR), Wagner Group fighters did not sign new contracts with the Russian defense ministry, and the group has continued to operate as Wagner. It remains to be seen whether, and for how long, Wagner can resist the defense ministry’s usurpation of its CAR operations, especially after the formal end to Wagner operations in Mali in early June 2025. (4) Wagner, rebranded. Africa Corps’ emergence appears to have been largely a bureaucratic restructuring and rebranding exercise. The new entity gobbled up many former Wagner fighters and usurped much of the group’s recruitment infrastructure. The Russian military tethered the new entity closer to the military’s chain of command, but seems to not have created any new units for the corps. While the entity’s recruitment campaigns are highly visible, replete with detail on deployment requirements, salary, and benefits, little is known from open sources about its command and manpower. (5) Less nimble and less risk-prone. Africa Corps has thus far prioritized training and routine security assistance for its host countries, compared to the high-risk missions the Wagner Group used to undertake. For its funding, Africa Corps currently appears to rely on Russia’s state budget. In the future, it will likely seek more diverse sources of funding and may even allow new “mini-Prigozhins” to spring up, to engage in profitable business activities to generate funding. (6) A sustainable model? Though worst-case expectations about the fate of Russia’s Syrian bases—namely, that Russia would be ousted from them—did not come to pass after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Russia appears to be engaged in efforts to diversify its military logistics to ensure the sustainability of its Africa operations. Should Africa Corps continue to eschew the types of higher-risk missions that Wagner used to undertake, it might face growing competition from other players, such as China, Iran, and Turkey. It also remains to be seen to what extent Africa Corps will make inroads into Togo, Benin, and a number of other potential target countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin, Wagner Group, and Africa Corps
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Sahel

267. When Quality Management Helps Agri-food Firms to Export

Author:: Charlotte Emlinger and Karine Latouche
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This article examines the impact of firms' quality policies on export performance. Using French administrative data at the employee and firm level, we assess the level of firms' commitment to issues related to product reliability and safety through the presence of quality management personnel. We merge these data with French customs data, which provide the value and quantity of exports for each firm by product and destination. We show that firms with quality management employees have better market penetration, export higher volumes and have longer trade relationships, especially in markets with high standards requirements (higher number of sanitary and phytosanitary or technical measures). Overall, our paper highlights the role of agri-food firms' "quality investment" in export performance and emphasizes that product quality is not limited to product differentiation perceived by the final consumer. Product traceability and reliability are essential factors for firms' competitiveness, especially in the context of global value chains.
Topic:: Food, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, Non-Tariff Measures, and Agribusiness
Political Geography:: Europe and France

268. The Gravity of Violence

Author:: Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way. A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a structural gravity equation of violence. Studying continental Africa over the period 1997 to 2023, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is simulated to quantify different policy-relevant experiments in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive. Positive and spatially-diffusing feedback loops between development and pacification are one of the main findings of our analysis.
Topic:: Development, Conflict, Violence, Trade, and Gravity Data
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

269. The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety

Author:: Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Mejean, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We develop a model of international trade and geopolitical disputes, embedding a diplomatic game of escalation to conflict within a quantitative model of trade. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations to avoid war. In equilibrium, negotiations may fail, resulting in conflict. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. We provide a simple procedure to estimate these factors in a model of trade calibrated to current data. This approach is then used to quantify the geoeconomic factors characterizing the US-China relationship, both historically and under various ``decoupling'' scenarios. We find that the growing US dependence to Chinese products and markets over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. In this context, decoupling from China through increased tariffs may offer geopolitical benefits. Yet, the analysis highlights a fundamental security dilemma: because export and import dependencies influence bargaining power in negotiations, decoupling may reduce the diplomatic concessions needed to maintain peace but can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Economy, Risk, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

270. Monetary Policy and Life Insurance Profitability: Bancassurance’s Edge in a Low-Yield World

Author:: Pablo Aguilar-Perez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on the profitability of life insurers during the prolonged low-interestrate period, leveraging a novel dataset of 31 leading French insurers from 2009 to 2018. Following supervisory practice and business-model criteria, we classify firms into bancassurers (insurance subsidiaries of banking groups) and non-bancassurers (the rest of life insurers governed by the French Insurance Code). Our central contribution is to document the income channel for life insurance. Monetary policy easing boosts profitability, but the adverse effect of the low-yield era operates through the spread between portfolio returns and credited (guaranteed) rates: as this guaranteed-yield spread widens, the gain from easing attenuates. We show that this mechanism differs materially across business models. Bancassurers reduce credited rates more rapidly than peers while maintaining above-average premium growth, thereby dampening the income channel’s drag and sustaining margins. Portfolio choices reinforce this advantage: bancassurers’ profitability increases with higher equity shares, in contrast to nonbancassurers, consistent with more diversified portfolios that smooth returns. Taken together, the results reveal pronounced heterogeneity in how life insurers adapt to monetary easing and underscore the importance of business model for the transmission of monetary policy to non-bank financial intermediaries.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, Profit, Financial Stability, and Life Insurance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

271. Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel

Author:: Pablo Aguilar-Perez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper examines the global spillovers of US monetary policy through the remittance channel, in both sending and recipient countries. Using a dataset covering 8 remittance-sending and 41 recipient countries from January 1997 to December 2017, we apply a local projections framework to trace the dynamic effects of unexpected US monetary tightening. We find that remittance outflows decline in advanced economies following policy shocks, illustrating the pro-cyclicality of remittances in source countries and their role in amplifying global financial spillovers. Among recipient countries, our results show that in countries with low to moderate remittance dependence, inflows tend to increase following a contractionary shock – consistent with altruistic or insurance-driven motives. In contrast, remittances decline in highly dependent countries, aligning with self-interest or investment-driven behavior. We find that these heterogeneous responses are shaped by migrant profiles: countries with high remittance dependence typically have a larger share of low-skilled migrants and display more strongly pro-cyclical remittance patterns. In contrast, less dependent countries tend to have more skilled or diversified diasporas, resulting in more stable and less cyclical remittance flows.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Remittances
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

272. Energy and Fiscal Shocks: Reassessing Industrial Competitiveness

Author:: Carl Grekou, Thomas Grjebine, and Florian Morvillier
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: Energy price shocks never occur in isolation: their impact is shaped by the broader macroeconomic context, in particular by governments' fiscal stance. This paper investigates how two key forces-energy price shocks and demand stimuli induced by fiscal policy-affect industrial performance in advanced economies, and shows that their effects depend critically on trade exposure. Using sector-level data for 30 countries over the period 1978-2022, we find that rising energy prices reduce manufacturing value added through both cost and demand channels, with more persistent effects in less open sectors. In contrast, demand-led fiscal expansions generate more complex dynamics: while boosting domestic sales, they simultaneously weaken external competitiveness. On average, a 1% increase in domestic demand leads to a 1.8% decline in manufacturing exports within three years. The overall effect on value added depends on the degree of trade openness - it is positive in the short term for sheltered sectors, but turns negative after two years in globally integrated ones.
Topic:: Economy, Manufacturing, Industry, COVID-19, Economic Recovery, Energy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

273. The Impact of the Far Right on Mainstream Politics: Evidence from the Front National

Author:: Anthony Edo, Thomas Renault, and Jerome Valette
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: How does the electoral success of a far-right political force shape the strategies and policy platforms of mainstream candidates? We answer this question by exploiting the political shock of the creation of the Front National, an antiimmigration party, in 1972 and its sudden electoral breakthrough in the 1980s. Through a comprehensive textual analysis of candidate manifestos in French parliamentary elections from 1968 to 1997, we find that right-wing candidates respond to local far-right success, measured as voting shares, by amplifying the salience of immigration in their manifestos. They also adopt more negative positions on immigration and increasingly associate it with issues such as crime and the welfare state. In contrast, the ideological positions of left-wing candidates do not shift in response to far-right electoral gains. We finally show that the strategic adjustments of right-wing candidates help mitigate electoral losses to far-right competitors.
Topic:: Political Economy, Immigrants, Xenophobia, Political Parties, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Europe and France

274. The Changing Face of the South Caucasus

Author:: Teona Giuashvili
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on the South Caucasus has been neither linear nor uniform. The war has ushered in a period of interregnum between the earlier regional order and one whose features are yet to emerge. It has shifted political dynamics within the three states of the South Caucasus and has affected the interests and positions of external actors, altering the regional balance of power. In all three countries in the region, the interregnum has amplified trends that predated the war: it consolidated Azerbaijan’s assertive foreign policy, reinforced Armenia’s striving for emancipation from Russia, and accelerated Georgia’s drift away from the West. While Türkiye took advantage of Russia’s distraction from the region and fostered its position in the South Caucasus, the shift in the status quo in the region has penalised Iran’s regional interests. Throughout the last three years, the South Caucasus has witnessed the receding influence of the US and the EU, and the expansion of China’s geoeconomic footprint.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

275. Poland at a Crossroads? Strategic Choices Amid Shifting Transatlantic Security Dynamics

Author:: Marcin Fatalski and Wojciech Michnik
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Poland stands at a pivotal moment, navigating domestic political transitions while adapting to profound changes in the transatlantic security landscape. The outcome of key elections (presidential in 2025 and parliamentary in 2027) will shape the country’s strategic direction, as NATO and the EU confront some of the most significant challenges in their history. A second Trump presidency marks a turning point for European security, amplifying EU-sceptical forces and reshaping the regional balance of power. This Strategic Update examines the key domestic and international factors influencing Poland’s political and strategic decision-making, and Poland’s role in the evolving European security architecture – especially in times of the resurgent populist sentiments on both sides of the Atlantic and increasingly aggressive behaviour of the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

276. What next for African Union peace operations in Somalia?

Author:: Partha Moman
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update from Partha Moman traces the evolution of African Union peace operations in Somalia, from AMISOM’s deployment in 2007 to the current AUSSOM mission; it addresses the failure of negotiations and strategic vision, the reduction of multilateral intervention, shifting mandates, operational challenges, and political violence dynamics. As security in Somalia remains volatile and funding gaps persist, this paper provides policy recommendations for a strategic reorientation of AUSSOM towards enabling positive political dialogue, improving transparency and cost-effectiveness to foster long-term peace and stability.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Negotiation, Transparency, African Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

277. Scramble for the Undersea: Challenges ahead for deep-seabed mining and submarine cables

Author:: Amaia Sánchez-Cacicedo
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update focuses on the geopolitical competition and challenges surrounding deep-seabed mining and submarine telecommunications cables, particularly in the context of the Indian Ocean Region.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Mining, Strategic Competition, Jurisdiction, Telecommunications, and Subsea Cables
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Indian Ocean

278. “European Army”: A Thought Experiment

Author:: Lutz Unterseher
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: In nine concise pages, German military analyst Lutz Unterseher provides the strategic orientation, operational modalities, force allocations, institutional framework, overall personnel requirements for active duty and reserves, command organization, and armament composition of an integrated European Union armed force. He then provides a budget for the component parts. The total annual cost is €170 billion, 1% of EU nations’ GDP. Unterseher concludes: It is hardly accidental that the European Union was chosen as the political framework for this force model. Above all, that is because, given Trump-era U.S. policy, NATO in its Atlantic-partnership sense no longer exists. Whether a self-confident “Euro-NATO” can emerge under American pressure and attempts to sow division remains highly questionable. It does, however, seem wise to “carry over” NATO’s infrastructure and communication networks into the authentically European armed forces wherever possible.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

279. Securing the Future: The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability

Author:: Matthew House
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: North America, Maldives, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

280. Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s Micro-insurgency in Syria

Author:: Daniele Garofalo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah—a Salafi-jihadist “micro-insurgency” group operating mainly in northern Syria’s rural and peripheral areas—stands out among the armed factions to emerge after the fall of Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Led by Abu Aisha al-Shami, the group consists of several hundred fighters, including former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) members, while displaying strong ideological affinity and potential for future collaboration with the Islamic State (IS). Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s focus on sectarian violence and symbolic attacks poses a threat to local stability and risks escalating wider community conflicts in Syria, despite the group’s limited overt military capacity.
Topic:: Terrorism, Insurgency, Sectarianism, Islamic State, Political stability, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Post-Conflict, Salafi-Jihadism, and Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

281. Identity, Injustice, and Intimacy: The Making of Sahel Militants

Author:: Chris Mensa-Ankrah
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Militant groups in the Sahel exploit widespread youth isolation and social breakdown—offering young men belonging, purpose, and brotherhood that mimic and replace weakened family and community ties. Traditional Sahelian values of obedience and honor, once stabilizing, are repurposed by jihadist recruiters as moral justification for violence when clan or state authority collapses. Radicalization often follows a predictable psychological path: limited personal agency and strict social conformity in childhood give way to confusion, alienation, and eventual dependence on militant “families.” Sustainable counter-radicalization must focus on rebuilding genuine community bonds and youth inclusion, using local clerics, elders, and mentors to replace the false intimacy that militant groups provide.
Topic:: Radicalization, Youth, Community, Identity, Isolation, Gender, and Militancy
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

282. Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar

Author:: Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based firms are expanding rare-earth mining in Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin States by partnering with militias that lease mines, provide security, and tax exports. Satellite imagery shows a rapid increase in rare earth elements (REE) sites since 2015, turning militia-held enclaves into major suppliers of dysprosium, terbium, and other critical minerals for the PRC. As U.S.–PRC competition intensifies, Myanmar’s fragmented sovereignty enables armed groups with ties to Beijing to shape REE supply chains, complicating potential U.S. and Indian efforts to source Burmese minerals.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Natural Resources, Strategic Competition, Militias, Supply Chains, and Rare earth elements (REEs)
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and United States of America

283. Defense and Security Cooperation as a Pillar of Engagement: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific

Author:: Tu Lai
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The elevation of Vietnam–US relations in September 2023 to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), the highest tier in Vietnam’s current diplomatic hierarchy, not only reflects Hanoi’s ongoing efforts to diversify its international relations but also underscores the strategic weight assigned to its ties with Washington. The CSP would have been improbable without sustained progress in defense and security cooperation, which has served both as a catalyst for mutual trust and as a practical mechanism for advancing more substantive, effective collaboration.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Collaboration, Regional Security, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: South Asia, Vietnam, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

284. Domestic violence against women in Saudi Arabia: A persistent dilemma amidst claims of reform

Author:: Rola Khaled Youssef
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Violence against women in Saudi Arabia is rooted in decades-long practices of marginalization, deprivation, and discrimination against women, making them vulnerable to domestic, community, and state violence. This violence is exacerbated first by a patriarchal culture that appoints men as guardians of women's lives and justifies violence against them under the pretext of protecting family honor and maintaining order; and second by legislation that either tolerates this culture or ignores all forms of violence against women. All of this is perpetuated by the power of the State and the ruling patriarchy, which suppresses women's voices, groups, and movements seeking to bring about change. While breaking the shackles of patriarchal upbringing in most Arab countries was associated with resistance and the quest for liberation from colonialism, women's cultural and political struggles emerged in Saudi society after the transformations of the oil revolution. Although Saudi women went out for education and were allowed limited participation in professional fields and public life, their paths were largely determined by social legacies, tribal and religious considerations, and the absolute power of the political system, all of which contributed to the perpetuation of family, community, gender, economic, and political violence.
Topic:: Reform, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

285. Russia Transitions to Nuclear Intimidation

Author:: Arseny Sivitsky and Alexander Taranov
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since the launch of Moscow’s large-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, Russia has consistently escalated its nuclear posture from a predominantly defensive deterrence model toward offensive nuclear deterrence and intimidation. Russian offensive nuclear deterrence goes beyond signaling and prescribes demonstrative, selective, or limited nuclear strikes against selected critical facilities to instill fear among Western countries of large-scale and potentially uncontrolled nuclear escalation. Predeployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and strategic offensive systems in Belarus, updates to the 2024 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, and preparations to resume nuclear testing manifest and support a practical transition to this concept. The Kremlin’s preparations to resume nuclear testing were intended to reinforce the credibility of Russian nuclear threats and technically prepare for the potential nuclear weapons use in combat conditions.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Intimidation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

286. Kremlin Shifts Focus to Information Warfare

Author:: Yuri Lapaiev
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Russia’s draft 2026 budget cuts military spending by $2.4 billion compared to 2025 while boosting funding for state-run media by 54 percent, signaling a potential pivot toward intensified information warfare. The Kremlin’s informational tactics are tailored to domestic, Western, and Ukrainian audiences, seeking to sustain public support at home, undermine Western aid to Ukraine, and erode Ukrainian morale. Facing limited battlefield gains and economic strain, Moscow increasingly relies on propaganda to achieve its aims, exaggerating weapon tests, spreading false narratives, and combining disinformation with physical attacks to influence perceptions and sustain its war against Ukraine.
Topic:: Military Spending, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

287. Security Transformations in Southern Syria: Authority, Armed Networks, and Foreign Intervention

Author:: Abdullah Al-Jabassini
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Southern Syria—comprising Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida Governorates—has long been a volatile border region. The collapse of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024 initially inspired optimism and hopes for stability. Yet the region quickly entered a period of profound political and security transformation. Viewed in a broader historical context, many of the security challenges observed today in the southern region are not entirely new. They have deep roots in the wartime period and in the coercive and manipulative policies implemented by the Assad regime after its return to the region in July 2018, albeit in forms and patterns that have been reshaped, reconfigured, and reproduced after its collapse. Foreign intervention, too, is far from recent: regional and international actors have long influenced and exacerbated instability in the south. Situated within this historical and geopolitical context and drawing on a mixed-methods approach—including in-depth interviews with a diverse range of local actors and two original datasets documenting armed groups and violent incidents—this research paper provides a nuanced, context-specific analysis of the complex security dynamics in Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida Governorates. The paper pursues three main objectives. First, it offers a historical overview of the security environment under the Assad regime, from its return to the region in 2018 until its collapse in December 2024. Second, it examines the current security challenges across the three governorates during Syria’s political transition, with particular focus on the modalities and impacts of Israeli intervention, the underlying causes and patterns of violence, and the conditions facilitating persistent drug trafficking into Jordan. Third, this paper probes the incentives, constraints, and strategic preferences of relevant domestic, regional, and international actors in relation to two externally driven approaches to stabilization: a potential Russian redeployment to the south and the prospects for a U.S.-mediated Syrian-Israeli security arrangement. Findings reveal that domestic and external factors shape security outcomes as much as state authority in Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida. Israeli intervention reshapes the security environment, constrains state authority, and empowers local actors. Within this fragmented landscape, the resurgence of violence reflects an interplay of wartime legacies, unresolved rivalries, resilient armed networks, and widespread proliferation of weapons. State efforts to dismantle armed networks and assert control face significant challenges; in some instances, interventions are modest, generate grievances, or provoke local resistance. At the same time, militarized drug-trafficking networks exploit weak state presence, drug stockpiles, and adaptive smuggling methods to maintain operations across the border into Jordan. Foreign intervention continues to be a central factor, simultaneously generating instability while shaping any proposed approach to stabilization. U.S.-backed Israeli-Syrian talks and potential Russian redeployment each offer opportunities to reduce volatility, but both create dependencies on external mediation and influence the exercise of state authority. These overlapping dynamics produce a deeply unstable environment, where each factor reinforces the others, and persistent challenges for stabilization endure throughout the transitional period.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Foreign Interference, Post-Conflict, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

288. The Blue Economy in Central Africa: An Ocean ofOpportunities for Sustainable Development

Author:: Adeline Nembot and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Africa is the world’s second-largest and second-most populous continent after Asia . At about30.3 million km (11.7 million square miles), it covers 20% of Earth ‘s land area and 6% of its totalsurface area. With nearly 1.4 billion people as of 2021, Africa accounts for about 18% of theworld’s human population . Central Africa is a region of the African continent comprising variouscountries. It has the highest rate of extreme poverty (54.8%) in the world, followed by SouthernAfrica (45.1%) (1) . Even though projections claim that this region will remain the poorest regionwith an extreme poverty rate of 44.6% in 2030 (1) , Central Africa, with its vast river systems,extensive coastline, and rich marine resources, constitutes a promising avenue for sustainabledevelopment through the blue economy. The blue economy refers to the sustainable use of oceanresources to stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and improve livelihoods while preserving thehealth of marine ecosystems. Cameroon, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon possess extensive coastlines that createopportunities for beach tourism and ecotourism. Additionally, these countries have the potential foroffshore oil and gas exploration, boast abundant and diverse marine ecosystems, and feature the Lake Chad Basin, which offers possibilities for inland fisheries and aquaculture. Together, theseassets provide Central Africa the opportunity to improve livelihoods, reduce poverty, diversifyeconomies, and promote sustainable development. This is consistent with the Agenda 2030 visionfor sustainable development goals and the green economy, as it focuses on enhancing socialequality and well-being while also controlling environmental risks through low-carbon andresource-efficient policies . Hence, this article examines how Central Africa can take advantage ofits marine resources to break the poverty crisis. This article will benefit policymakers and other stakeholders in Central Africa and beyond. Thearticle is structured as follows: Section 1 contains the potential and challenges of the blueeconomy in Central Africa, and Section 2 describes how the blue economy is a catalyst forsustainable development in Central Africa.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Green Economy, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Central Africa, and Lake Chad Basin

289. Enhancing the Efficiency and Sustainability of Investmentsin Cameroon

Author:: Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Cameroon’s drive toward economic emergence by 2035 hinges on ensuring the maximum impactand long-term viability of its investments—public, private, or foreign. Current data, however,highlights ongoing challenges that include reductions in public investment budgets, insufficientinfrastructure, and fluctuating foreign direct investment levels ( 1 ) . These constraints highlight theurgency of a coordinated strategy for reinforcing investment management and governancestructures. This policy brief concentrates on identifying the most significant determinants ofinvestment in Cameroon, examining both the factors that undermine efficient capital allocation andthose that facilitate better outcomes. Such determinants range from macroeconomic conditions,like elevated inflation and external debt, to governance issues, such as weak institutionalframeworks and corruption. The primary objectives of this analysis are to assess how existing investment policies function,propose relevant modifications that align with the national development strategy (SND30), andaddress accountability gaps. Methodologically, it draws upon existing legislation, official economicand competitiveness assessments, as well as statistical data on investments. The approachintegrates insights from successful practices and contextualizes them within Cameroon’s uniqueeconomic structure. This document begins by clarifying the nature of the investment challenges and exploring avenues for improvement, then critically discusses suitable policy choices in light ofCameroon’s institutional and economic context, and concludes with policy recommendations andpotential lines of future investigation to foster an inclusive and transformative investmentframework.
Topic:: Economics, Investment, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

290. Central Africa’s Governance Crisis: Structural Constraintsand Policy Options

Author:: Antem Anthony, Enowbachem Agbortanyi, and Muriel Mesette Kinkoh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Central African countries such as the Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo,Chad, Cameroon, Republic of the Congo, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea, despite being resource-rich and strategically placed countries, are facing a persistent governance crisis characterized bylow institutional capacity, instability, high corruption, limited fiscal space, and enormous regionalspill-overs. The 2024 Mo Ibrahim Foundation Index of African Governance (IIAG) reports thatgovernance progress in Africa halted in 2022 after years of stagnation. According to the data set,over the period 2014–2023, while some countries improved, the majority deteriorated, especiallyin categories such as Security & Rule of Law and Participation, Rights & Inclusion . In these Central African countries, the combination of elite capture of public resources, non-statearmed groups that control territory or economic flows, low taxation and revenue mobilisation, andshrinking civic space cumulatively works to destabilise the social contract. Elite networks tend tocapture rents from the extractive industry and redirect procurement towards patronage rather thanpublic service delivery. Meanwhile, armed groups and criminal economies (minerals, timber, cattle, smuggling) thrive where state control is weak. Fiscal fragility and over-indebtedness , driven bydependence on volatile commodities (oil, minerals) and poor domestic revenue mobilization, alsoconstrain governments’ ability to invest in institutions and services. Regional dynamics compoundthese problems: porous borders enable the movement of armed groups, illicit flows, andrefugee/displacement pressures. Civic exclusion (limited voice, repression of opposition or civilsociety) also challenges the state’s legitimacy. The cumulative effect is a governance system where the state is perceived less as a provider ofsecurity and services and more as extractive and self-centered. This undermines legitimacy,dissuades private investment, increases humanitarian needs, and reduces resilience toshocks. This brief diagnoses governance constraints in Central Africa and proposes actionablepolicy pathways for renewal.
Topic:: Governance, Legitimacy, Public Policy, and Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and Central Africa

291. Diaspora’s political participation in Cameroon’s elections:Between aspirations for alternation and continuity

Author:: Ngo Tong Chantal Marie, Théophile Nguimfack, and Guy Beaudry Jengu Jengu
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The results of the presidential election as proclaimed the 27 October 2025 by the ConstitutionalCouncil, gave Paul Biya victory with 53,66% of votes cast including diaspora. The diasporaaccording to the Electoral Code, designates “ Cameroonian citizens settled or residingabroad ” . Under Article 271 of the Electoral Code , “ Cameroonian citizens settl ed or residing abroad shall exercise their right to vote by participating in the election of the President of the Republic andin the referendum s ” . Thus, Cameroonians abroad are only entitled to participate in two elections:the presidential election and the referendums. Since 2011, they participated to three presidentialelections: 2011, 2018 and 2025. Compared to the 2018 presidential election where there was 6667 754 voters registered and 3 537 965 voters cast , and Paul Biya won in diaspora with largestscores , in 2025, the candidate of the opposition Issa Tchiroma won in every zone of election indiaspora, a victory reflecting diaspora dissatisfaction with the incumbent government . The highestscores of Issa Tchiroma in diaspora reflected the mind of voters which claim for a political changeand the rise of a new generation of leaders. But despite this sanction of diaspora, Paul Biya wasreelected and it is really difficult to expected a substantial change in the governance of thecountry. Nevertheless, the diaspora’s call for change was clear, yet within Cameroon many voices still supported continuity. With Biya’s reelection, which expectations for diaspora? Whichperspectives for the next presidential election in 2032? Given their limited electoral weight, thediaspora must reorganize its struggle through lobbying, civil society, and think tanks to influence decision-making process and achieve meaningful policy change.
Topic:: Diaspora, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

292. Digital Pathways to Expanding Private Health Insurance inCameroon

Author:: Solange Dabou, Constantine Asahngwa, and Ronald Gobina
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: In sub-Saharan Africa, 27% (320 million people) of the population have access to mobile internetand 44% (527 million unique subscribers) now use mobile phone technology, with 51% of SIMconnections done through smartphones according to the 2024 GSMA Intelligence report . Thisuptake of digital technologies has found applications in almost every aspect of human life inprofessional settings and otherwise. In the healthcare space, this spike in use of digitaltechnologies is transforming health service delivery globally, opening avenues for achieving healthequity and universal health coverage in low-resource settings. In Cameroon however, financial barriers are among the most common obstacles to health equityand well-being for all, with majority of the population paying out-of-pocket for health services at thepoint of care. This exposes Cameroonians to catastrophic health expenditures and deepenspoverty and social inequalities , especially among the most vulnerable populations. There isevidence that private prepayment mechanisms can improve access to healthcare and offerfinancial security, even to people with very limited resources . These mechanisms include private commercial health insurance plans and community-based, non-profit schemes offered byhealthcare providers, NGOs, or local associations. Private Health Insurance (PHI) in this brief willrefer to schemes offered by private commercial entities.
Topic:: Public Health, Health Insurance, Equity, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

293. Facilitating the transition of women from the informal to theformal sector in Cameroon

Author:: Ghislain Stéphane and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Around seven out of ten working women in Cameroon earn their living in the informal economy, inactivities that generate most national employment and about half of gross domestic product.Informal work provides essential income but is characterized by low productivity, lack of socialprotection and high vulnerability. Supporting women to move progressively towards formalemployment and structured entrepreneurship is therefore both an economic priority and a matterof social justice. It is also central to the achievement of Cameroon’s Vision 2035 and to progresson the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those relating to gender equality and decentwork. This policy brief summarizes key findings from the report “Women in the Informal Sector inCameroon: Opportunities and Economic Contributions” and proposes a set of practical measuresto encourage formalization while improving the quality of work in the informal economy.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Women, Employment, Entrepreneurship, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

294. Strengthening Cameroon’s Electoral Ecosystem: Lessonslearned from the 2025 presidential election

Author:: Antem Anthony
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Weeks after Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election, the dust is yet to settle on an election described by 9 members of the US Congress as a “serious erosion of democratic norms”.Between numerous killings, arbitrary arrests of peaceful protesters and opposition figures,kidnappings, looting and destruction of property, the post electoral scenario in Cameroon did notfall short of expectation as early indicators highlighted the risk of a polycrisis in Cameroon. Awayfrom the violent scenarios recorded, it would be of benefit to the enlarged public and policymakers to take note of some positive scenarios which were equally observed throughout thiselection and how multisectoral actions can shape positive outcomes for the community. In view ofinforming best practices locally and internationally, this article therefore highlights some keylessons from Cameroon’s just ended elections
Topic:: Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

295. Strengthening Telecom Infrastructure and Governance forQuality Internet in Cameroon

Author:: Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Cameroon’s digital economy is constrained by expensive and unreliable internet. Mobile datacosts are around two to three times higher than in some African peers, while fixed broadbandspeeds are more than five times slower than in countries such as Ghana. Poor quality connectivitylimits productivity, raises business costs and undermines efforts to build a modern digitaleconomy. This brief argues that the core problem is weak governance, maintenance and investmentincentives in the national fibre backbone and in the telecom sector as a whole. It proposes a set ofpriority reforms to restructure Cameroon Telecommunications (Camtel), strengthen pro-competitive regulation and ensure that internet becomes both affordable and widely accessible.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Digital Economy, Internet, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

296. Teaching Sudan Through Sudanese Voices

Author:: Michael Overton
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: The war that broke out between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum in April 2023 is rooted in a larger history of colonial violence—one that led to ethnic cleansing in Darfur, the revolution that deposed al-Bashir in 2019, and the October 2021 military coup. The current violence has, as of 2024, led to the displacement of around 9 million people, including both refugees who fled the country and those displaced internally. Considering the terrible humanitarian crisis, Sudanese activists have fought to spread informa- tion and provide financial support for those most affected, while activists around the globe have helped in elevating their efforts. Despite their good work, many people remain uninformed about what is happening in Sudan and many teachers are unaware of the resources that could help them bring these issues to their classrooms. Last year, as part of the course “Studying the Arab World” (taught by Dr. Fida Adely and Dr. Rochelle Davis), Ingie Gohar, Shauna McLean, and I—all students in the MAAS program—teamed up in the hopes of making a project to address this gap. Our work culminated in the creation of an educational module and website titled “Teach Sudan,” which we designed to help teachers in English-language classrooms educate their students about Sudan’s history and culture, as well as the current war and its impact on displaced Sudanese people.
Topic:: Education, Humanitarian Crisis, Activism, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

297. From Promise to Precarity

Author:: Ingie Gohar
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: In 2004, Egypt and Sudan signed the Four Freedoms Agreement, granting Sudanese nationals the right to freedom of movement, residence, work, and property ownership in Egypt. The agreement aimed to strengthen bilateral relations and enhance cooperation between the two countries. However, Egypt has never fully implemented the agreement in practice, and the situation for Sudanese nationals has only deteriorated over time. Following the outbreak of the current conflict in Sudan in the spring of 2023 and the sharp increase in arrivals from that country, Egypt suspended the agreement and placed new restrictions on the entry, residency, and employment of Sudanese refugees. These restrictive policies have forced many of those fleeing the war to resort to dangerous irregular migration routes, only to then encounter precarious conditions in Egypt. Egypt’s deteriorating economy has also left much of the local population struggling to make ends meet, fueling frustration against migrants as the public—and the media—searches for scapegoats.
Topic:: Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Sudan, Middle East, and Egypt

298. Charting a People’s Revolution: Protest Data from Sudan’s Uprising

Author:: Killian Clarke and Jérémie Langlois
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: From late 2018 to 2019, a largely unarmed mass movement of Sudanese protesters led to the ouster of long- time dictator Omar al-Bashir and the beginning of a transition to democracy. Though this transition was subsequently cut short by a counterrevolutionary coup, and then a collapse into civil war, the 2019 revolution nonetheless marks a watershed moment in Sudan’s history—an effort by everyday Sudanese citizens to wrest political control from entrenched authoritarian actors. At the same time, this revolution is just the latest manifestation of people power in Sudan, which has a long history of revolution, with similar uprisings ousting autocratic incumbents in 1964 and 1985.
Topic:: Protests, Revolution, Repression, and Data
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

299. Authoritarian Legacies and the War in Sudan

Author:: Khalid Mustafa Medani
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Decades of authoritarian rule—and the policies of Omar al-Bashir’s Islamist regime—help explain the roots of Sudan’s current conflict, argues CCAS alum Khalid Medani.
Topic:: Civil War, Authoritarianism, Islamism, and Omar al-Bashir
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

300. Migration vs. automation as an answer to labour shortages: Firm-level analysis for Austria

Author:: Mahdi Ghodsi, Sandra Leitner, and Marina Tverdostup
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Labour shortages in Europe have led firms to adopt two key strategies: automation and the employment of migrants. This study empirically examines the relationship between robot adoption and immigrant labour (differentiated by region of origin and education level) in Austrian firms using a novel dataset linking firm-level survey data on robotics adoption from Austria’s Information and Communication Technologies (IKTU ) surveys (waves 2018, 2020 and 2022) with registry-based employment records. Employing Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimations, we analyse firm-level employment decisions while controlling for firm characteristics, industry and region. Our findings show that firms adopting robots tend to employ more workers overall, particularly those with low and medium education levels. Notably, robot-adopting firms employ a higher share of low-educated migrants who are not from the European Economic Area (EEA), suggesting complementarity rather than substitution. However, automation appears to reduce the employment of highly educated migrant workers relative to natives. Distinguishing between industrial and service robots, we find that service robots have a stronger association with employment growth than industrial robots. The impact of robot adoption also differs by sector and is most pronounced in manufacturing, whereas its effects vary in the private service sectors. Our findings suggest that while automation can alleviate labour shortages, it may reinforce labour market segmentation. For EU policy makers, targeted interventions are needed to support the transition of migrant workers into higher-skilled occupations and to ensure that the benefits of automation are equitably distributed. Given the EU-wide relevance of automation and migration dynamics, these results provide insights that are also applicable beyond Austria.
Topic:: Migration, Employment, Automation, Labor Market, and Firms
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS