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4261. The Volatile Tunisia-Libya Border: Between Tunisia’s Security Policy and Libya’s Militia Factions

Author:
Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Along the border between Tunisia and Libya, informal trade agreements led to a tight-knit border economy. But political changes in both Libya and Tunisia have fundamentally altered the economic and security landscape. The 2010–2011 uprisings disrupted a long-standing informal arrangement governing border trade between Tunisia and Libya. Over the following decade, as Libya disintegrated into mutually hostile fiefdoms, Tunisia maintained its unity, transitioned from authoritarian to democratic rule, and increasingly shunned official dealings with competing Libyan power centers. As such, grassroots cross-border agreements initiated by and between nonstate actors became the norm, albeit with the acquiescence of the Tunisian state. Yet these agreements have failed to constitute a sustainable mechanism for the trade that Tunisia’s eastern borderlands need for survival.
Topic:
Security, Economy, Borders, Trade, and Militias
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia

4262. Russia in the Asia-Pacific: Less Than Meets the Eye

Author:
Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, and Aleksandar Vladicic
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russian foreign policy remains focused primarily on Europe. That said, Moscow’s diplomatic foray into Asia hinges on its burgeoning strategic partnership with China. Much has been written about Russia’s so-called pivot to the Asia-Pacific since its 2014 invasion of Ukraine and break with the West, but there is less to this supposed strategic shift than meets the eye. The country is and will remain a European—rather than an Asian—power by virtue of its history, strategic culture, demographics, and principal economic relationships.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, Diplomacy, History, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

4263. Playing Politics: International Security Sector Assistance and the Lebanese Military’s Changing Role

Author:
Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Following the August Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese Armed Forces must rebuild trust with the civilian population. The LAF can serve as a critical pillar in Lebanese government efforts to strengthen national security and identity in the midst of the crisis, in light of security sector assistance from the United States and other Western partners. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Lebanon more broadly, is one of the largest recipients of foreign assistance in the Middle East. The United States and allied governments have sought to build the capabilities and professionalism of the LAF since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, focusing primarily on counterterrorism and border security. The LAF stood in stark contrast to other Lebanese security services in their restraint vis-à-vis the civilian population during the 2019 protests. However, recent reported violent incidents against civilians, ambiguity of the role of police forces, and concerns about both recovery efforts following the August 2020 port explosion in Beirut and extended powers under the state of emergency established by the Lebanese parliament have raised international concerns about the role of Lebanon’s security services, including the LAF. The LAF has a critical role to play in stabilizing Lebanon through a multi-faceted crisis, but will need to take concrete steps to bolster its professionalism. Lebanon’s modern politics have long been defined by confessionalism, a reality that persists even as the country is engulfed in crisis. International assistance to the LAF over the last fourteen years had intended to support the LAF as a legitimate national institution transcending confessions and supporting a broader sense of Lebanese security and identity. In the midst of the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, political turmoil at the helm of the country, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there is an important opportunity for the international community to support a new path for governance in the country—as shaped and envisioned by its populace. This opportunity hinges upon leveraging existing channels of support to the LAF and building in conditionality mechanisms that hold the LAF accountable for its actions, while continuing to promote a clear articulation of priorities for the LAF and a plan to improve military effectiveness through policy and doctrine; training and equipment, education, and exercises; operations; and institutional capacity building.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, International Security, Military Affairs, and Identity
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

4264. Etched in Stone: Russian Strategic Culture and the Future of Transatlantic Security

Author:
Eugene Rumer and Richard Sokolsky
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia will remain a formidable adversary for the United States, yet they have a shared interest in avoiding outright war. Time and patience will be needed to rebuild the relationship. Russian strategic culture is a product of several key factors: a long history of wars and adversarial relations with other European powers; an open geographic landscape that puts a premium on strategic depth; and an elite given to embracing a narrative of implacable Western hostility toward Russia. Historically, Europe has been by far the most important geographic theater for Russia, and it remains so to the present day. The national narrative of Vladimir Putin’s Russia emphasizes the legacy of World War II in Europe and the critical role Russia played in the defeat of Germany. Both support the Kremlin’s claim to special rights in the affairs of the continent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Culture, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

4265. Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves

Author:
Dalia Ghanem
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority. In Algeria, state formation remains an evolving process, as evidenced by the situation in the country’s northeastern border regions. With Algerian officials in these areas permitting smuggling of petrol and certain other commodities over the border with Tunisia and smugglers weeding out security threats even as they go about their illicit trade, the two ostensibly adversarial parties complement each other. This unusual relationship furthers the intrusion of the state into citizens’ livelihoods even as it manipulates state authority.
Topic:
Economy, Borders, and Smuggling
Political Geography:
Algeria, North Africa, and Tunisia

4266. Two Paths to Dominance: Military Businesses in Turkey and Egypt

Author:
Zeinab Abul-Magd, İsmet Akça, and Shana Marshall
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Egyptian and Turkish military businesses have used their institutional privileges to dominate their respective economies, but they have key differences. Turkey’s military businesses are centrally managed while Egypt’s use multiple complex conglomerates. In recent years, Turkish and Egyptian military institutions have followed divergent paths in their respective states. After many decades of full or partial control over the government, the Turkish military today is largely marginalized in politics. By contrast, after periods of exclusion from power, the Egyptian military is now in full control of the state. Despite these differences, both military institutions are powerful economic actors within their states. They have developed extensive civilian economic enterprises over the decades, dominating important sectors by capitalizing on their political influence, legal and regulatory privileges unique to their enterprises, and opportunities provided by market liberalization.
Topic:
Government, Economy, Business, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

4267. The Evolution of Inequality of Opportunity in Germany: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:
Paolo Brunori and Guido Neidhofer
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We show that measures of inequality of opportunity (IOP) fully consistent with Roemer (1998)’s IOP theory can be straightforwardly estimated by adopting a machine learning approach, and apply our novel method to analyse the development of IOP in Germany during the last three decades. Hereby, we take advantage of information contained in 25 waves of the Socio-Economic Panel. Our analysis shows that in Germany IOP declined immediately after reunification, increased in the first decade of the century, and slightly declined again after 2010. Over the entire period, at the top of the distribution we always find individuals that resided in West-Germany before the fall of the Berlin Wall, whose fathers had a high occupational position, and whose mothers had a high educational degree. East-German residents in 1989, with low educated parents, persistently qualify at the bottom.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Post Cold War, and Reunification
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

4268. The Risk of Automation in Argentina

Author:
Guillermo Falcone and Carlo Lombardo
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In this paper we characterize workers’ vulnerability to automation in the near future in Argentina as a function of the exposure to routinization of the tasks that they perform and the potential automation of their occupation. In order to do that we combine (i) indicators of potential automatability by occupation and (ii) worker’s information on occupation and other labor variables. We find that the ongoing process of automation is likely to significantly affect the structure of employment. In particular, unskilled and semi-skilled workers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Automation will probably be a more dangerous threat for equality than for overall employment.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Employment, Inequality, Job Creation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

4269. Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries

Author:
Maho Hatayama, Mariana Viollaz, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of “social distancing” policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs’ characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that the amenability of jobs to working from home increases with the level of economic development of the country. This is driven by jobs in poor countries being more intensive in physical/manual tasks, using less information and communications technology, and having poorer internet connectivity at home. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to working from home than the average worker. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. The paper finds that the crisis may exacerbate inequities between and within countries. It also finds that occupations explain less than half of the variability in the working-from-home indexes within countries, which highlights the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to working from home.
Topic:
Employment, Pandemic, Job Creation, COVID-19, and Hospitality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4270. The Effectiveness of School Closures and Other Pre-Lockdown COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Argentina, Italy, and South Korea

Author:
Claudio Neidhofer and Guido Neidhofer
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced policy-makers to swiftly find solutions to reduce infection rates and keep mortality as low as possible. Empirical analyses on the effectiveness of control measures are hereby of primary importance. School closures were among the earliest measures enacted by the governments of most countries. However, while schools are now reopening in many countries, the impact of school closures on the course of the epidemic is still an open question. Adopting parametric and non-parametric synthetic control methods we estimate the effectiveness of pro-active school closures, and other early social distancing interventions, in three countries that reacted relatively early during the course of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that these interventions were effective at reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19, especially when enacted early.
Topic:
Education, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, Argentina, South America, and Italy

4271. Distributional Effects of Reducing Energy Subsidies: Evidence from Recent Policy Reform in Argentina

Author:
Fernando Giuliano, Maria Ana Lugo, Ariel Masut, and Jorge Puig
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We analyze the distributional effects of the reduction in energy subsidies in Ar- gentina since 2016. As the policy reform also includes the introduction of a scheme to protect less well-off families (social tariff), we also review how well the targeting mechanism works. We apply traditional benefit-incidence analysis using household surveys and administrative data, focusing on residential subsidies to natural gas and electricity in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. We find that the social tariff is relatively pro-poor, with significantly higher coverage among the poorest households. There are some exclusion errors in the low-income deciles and large inclusion errors in the medium- and high-income deciles. The distributive incidence of subsidies does not appear to have changed substantially. Energy subsidies in Argentina (lower in aggregate terms) continue to be, although progressive, pro-rich. The distributional effect is explained by the fact that generalized subsidies to all categories of consumption coexist with a relatively well targeted social tariff. Re- garding energy budget shares, monthly spending on electricity has increased from 1.1 percent of total household income to 3.4 percent. Monthly spending on piped gas rose from 1.3 percent to 3.3 percent. These shares are in line with many other countries in the region. Naturally, there has been a convergence of tariffs toward service provision costs.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Reform, Subsidies, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

4272. Latin American Brotherhood? Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution

Author:
Julian Martinez-Correa, Leonardo Peñaloza Pacheco, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The effect of immigration on preferences for redistribution has been recently studied in the context of developed countries receiving migrants from poorer coun- tries with very different cultural backgrounds. In this paper we explore this issue in the context of migration across similar Latin American countries. To this aim, we exploit data at the provincial level from a large attitudinal survey (LAPOP) and match it to immigration data from different sources. We follow three approaches: first, we implement an instrumental variables approach in a cross-section of cen- suses; second we estimate fixed effects models with data from a large sample of harmonized national household surveys, and third we exploit the massive inflow of Venezuelan refugees into the border country of Colombia with an instrumental vari- ables methodology. Our results suggest a significant, negative and non-monotonic relationship between the share of immigrants at the provincial level and the sup- port for redistribution policies. This anti-redistribution effect is larger among those individuals with higher income.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Refugees, Inequality, and Redistribution
Political Geography:
Latin America

4273. Tracing the Local Impacts of Exports on Poverty and Inequality: The Case of Mexico

Author:
Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Evidence about the effect of exports on welfare at the local level is scarce. Using a unique dataset of international trade and poverty maps for almost 2,000 Mexican municipalities between 2004 and 2014, the study presented in this paper provides new evidence on the impact of a significant rise in exports on poverty and inequality at the local level. The analysis implements an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure of exports across municipalities with global trends in exports from developing to developed countries by sector. The results show that a 10 percent increase in the ratio of exports to workers reduces income inequality measured by the Gini coefficient by 0.17 points (using a 0 to 100 scale), but no significant effects on poverty reduction or average household incomes are identified. The lack of impacts on average incomes is driven by a rise in the supply of labor at the local level because municipalities with higher export growth experienced an increase in labor force participation and attracted more net migration, particularly of unskilled workers. Therefore, while total labor incomes grew in response to an increase in exports, average labor incomes per worker did not change. Declining remittances also blunted the effect of growing exports on household incomes.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Migration, Poverty, Inequality, and Local
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

4274. Motherhood, Labor Market Trajectories, and the Allocation of Talent: Harmonized Evidence on 29 Countries

Author:
Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Dolores de la Mata, María Edo, Yarine Fawaz, Matilde P. Machado, and Mariana Marchionno
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In this paper we assess whether changes in labor market decisions upon motherhood lead to potential inefficient allocations of talent. Using an event study approach with retrospective data drawn from SHARE for 29 European countries we show that motherhood effects go beyond the well studied effects of labor market participation decisions: the arrival of the first child substantially affects the uptaking of alternative modes of employment, such as part-time and self-employment, that are characterized by flexible or reduced work schedules but also lower pay on average. We also show that the size of labor market responses to motherhood are larger in societies with more conservative social-norms or with weak policies regarding work-life balance. To assess the effects of motherhood over the allocation of talent, we explore how labor market responses to parenthood vary by alternative measures of talent or ability. We find that all women, even those with the highest level of ability and abler than their husbands face large motherhood effects, while men show virtually no changes in the labor market when becoming fathers. We also find that mothers who become self-employed after the birth of the first child are those that are less entrepreneurial-able according to cognitive ability and personality traits shown to impair business survival. Overall, our results suggest relevant changes in the allocation of talent caused by gender differences in nonmarket responsibilities that can have sizable impacts on aggregate market productivity.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Children, and Employment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4275. Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina

Author:
Matias Ciaschi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using longitudinal data for Argentina, this paper measures the labor supply reaction of different household members to a breadwinner’s job loss. Firm events and local unemployment shocks are exploited as exogenous sources of variation to estimate the causal effect. Our main findings show that job loss by the male household head has a significant and substantial effect on the labor supply response of other household members, both at the extensive and intensive margin. While we do not find any effect on daughters, female partners and sons increase their labor market participation. The latter are also more likely to drop out from the educational system. These results are stronger among economically vulnerable households.
Topic:
Development, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4276. Pay for Performance for Prenatal Care and Newborn Health: Evidence from a Developing Country

Author:
Maria Laura Alzúa and Noemi Katzkowicz
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Empirical literature analyzing the effect of pay-for-performance programs (P4P) for healthcare providers on maternal care and newborn health outcomes is scarce. In 2008, Uruguay’s Ministry of Public Health implemented a P4P called Metas Asistenciales (Healthcare Goals), a country-wide program that grants healthcare providers an economic incentive for complying with certain maternal and newborn healthcare goals. Health organizations use these funds to provide maternal and child health services. Using administrative records and a difference-in-difference methodology, we evaluate the effect of the Metas Asistenciales program on maternal and newborn health outcomes. We find that in the institutions affected by the program, 10 percentage points more women received an adequate number of prenatal checkups and pregnancy detection in the first trimester improved by 5 percentage points. We also found better results among newborns for indicators related to birth weight, premature births, and stillbirths. In sum, the program had a positive, significant impact on the rate of pregnant women’s utilization of health services and on newborn health outcomes. This study thus provides evidence supporting the idea that economic incentives are a promising tool for incentivizing healthcare providers to achieve better health services in developing countries.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Children, and Birthing
Political Geography:
South America and Uruguay

4277. COVID-19 Lockdown and Domestic Violence: Evidence from Internet-Search Behavior in 11 Countries

Author:
Inés Berniell and Giovanni Facchini
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domestic violence in 11 countries with different ex-ante incidence of domestic violence (DV) and lockdown intensity. We use a novel measure of DV incidents that allows us to make cross-country com- parisons: a Google search intensity index of DV-related topics. Our difference-in- difference estimates show an increase in DV search intensity after lockdown (31%), with larger effects as more people stayed at home (measured with Google Mobil- ity Data). The peak of the increase in DV appears, on average, 7 weeks after the introduction of the lockdown. While we observe that the positive impacts on DV is a widespread phenomenon, the effect in developed countries is more than twice as strong as in Latin American countries. We show that the difference in impact correlates with the
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4278. Memorandum of Issues on The Amendment to the Local Governments Act, CAP 243

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This memorandum seeks to contribute to the on-going ammendment to the Local Governments Act. The memorundum is based on the research, capacity building and outreach activities that ACODE has implemented in Local Governments over the last 10 years. This is very timely in view of the fact that MoLG has recently been granted a sector status, the Local Government Sector.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Public Policy, and Local
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

4279. The Local Government Councils' Scorecard FY 2018/19: The Next Big Steps; Consolidating Gains of Decentralisation and Repositioning the Local Government Sector in Uganda

Author:
Arthur Bainomugisha, Jonas Mbabazi, Wilson Winstons Muhwezi, George Bogere, Phoebe Atukunda, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Oscord Mark Otile, Fred Kasalirwe, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, Walter Akena, and Richard Ayesigwa
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This eighth national Local Government Councils Scorecard report presents findings and results of the performance of elected political leaders at the district levels during the Financial Year 2018/2019. The Local Government Councils Scorecard FY 2018/19 report takes stock of where Uganda is on the road to full realization of the vision of decentralization and recommends a broad array of steps that would take the country much closer to that destination. The Scorecard methodology is unique in that it combines capacity-building and evidence-based assessment of elected local government leaders in a way that both strengthens local government institutions and holds leaders accountable for delivering the public services to which citizens are entitled. The methodology, described in this book, also incorporates an innovative civic engagement action planning process that builds capacity among citizens to use the tools of civic engagement to demand that public services are delivered.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

4280. Launch of the 8th Local Government Councils Scorecard Report FY 2018/19: Summary Report of the Proceedings

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents the proceedings of the launch of the 8th Local Government Councils Scorecard report for the Financial Year 2018/2019 held at Hotel Africana in Kampala. The theme of the launch was: “The Next Big Steps: Consolidating Gains of Decentralisation and Repositioning the Local Government Sector in Uganda.” It was collaboratively convened by the Ministry of Local Government (MoLG), the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) and the Uganda Local Governments Association (ULGA). The scorecard assessed the performance of elected district local government leaders in 35 districts strewn across the country, in the context of the decentralisation policy.
Topic:
Development, Budget, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa