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4241. Do bigger health budgets cushion pandemics? An empirical test of COVID-19 deaths across the world

Author:
Arusha Cooray, Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, and Indra de Soysa
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How has government healthcare spending prepared countries for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic? Arguably, spending is the primary policy tool of governments in providing effective health. We argue that the effectiveness of spending in reducing COVID deaths is conditional on the existence of healthcare equity and lower political corruption, because the health sector is particularly susceptible to political spending. Our results, obtained using ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation, suggest that higher spending targeted at reducing inequitable access to health has reduced COVID deaths. Consistent with the findings of others, our results indirectly suggest that health spending is necessary, but not sufficient unless accompanied by building resilience against the spread of deadly disease. Equitable health systems ease the effects of COVID presumably because they allow states to reach and treat people. Spending aimed at increasing health system capacity by increasing access thus seems a sound strategy for fighting the spread of disease, ultimately benefiting us all.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, COVID-19, Equity, and Regression Analysis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4242. Uganda’s nascent oil sector: Revenue generation, investor-stakeholder alignment, and public policy

Author:
Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the political economy of oil in Uganda since the announcement of its discovery in 2006. It focuses on the dynamics of oil revenue generation (pre-commercial production) and expenditure, investor-stakeholder contestation (i.e. between bureaucrats, investors/oil companies, and domestic stakeholders), and the role of public policy. Although the Government has created several institutional and regulatory frameworks to manage oil-related revenues and ensure that oil contributes to structural transformation, Uganda is already experiencing many of the stylized facts associated with natural resource exploitation, including macroeconomic instability, rent dissipation, and, more broadly, threats of adverse impact on the environment and on local livelihoods in the oil regions. Besides these, Uganda, and similarly endowed African countries, face the economic challenges related to the global shift in recent decades towards a low-carbon development paradigm and the threatening prospect of oil investments becoming ‘stranded assets’. The latter issues are not yet part of the policy conversation in Uganda.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Public Policy, Investment, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

4243. Effects of interest rate caps on microcredit: evidence from a natural experiment in Bolivia

Author:
María José Roa, Alejandra Villegas, and Ignacio Garrón
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the imposition of caps on microcredit lending rates through directed credit policies for productive sectors. This financial inclusion intervention provides a unique quasi-experiment, allowing to estimate its causal effect following a difference-in-differences analysis. Our results suggest that the imposition of interest rate ceilings negatively affected the portfolio balance of new microcredits and loans to SMEs granted by MFIs. Particularly, we find robust results indicating that the balance of the microcredit and SME loans portfolio granted by MFIs, relative to the company portfolio granted by banks, decreased by 26.1% for an average MFI for the period 2011-2018.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Microcredit, Credit, and Lending
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

4244. Vehicle fleets path and non-linear ownership elasticity for Bolivia, 2000 - 2035

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann and Alejandra Terán Orsini
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper seeks to analyze the evolution of the Bolivian vehicle stock in the mid-term and its policy implications. First, we analyze the relationship between income and vehicle ownership in the country during the period 1970 – 2017 through robust econometric techniques. Based on these results, we use an energy-mix accounting model programmed in General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) to analyze how the vehicle fleet and the derived demand of gasoline, natural gas and diesel oil evolved over time. Finally, we observe the trajectory of CO2eq in the transport sector for different types of vehicle categories. Our results prove that the relationship between vehicle ownership and per capita income is highly non-linear and we observe an excessive increase in the vehicle fleet during the last decade. Both of these results will speed up the saturation level of the vehicle fleet in Bolivia. With more equivalented vehicles (EV) on the roads, we expect that the consumption of derivatives will increase over the next years. Hence, we assume imbalances in diesel oil and gasoline production and a lower decarbonization path. Without an energy policy in the transport sector or any energy efficiency measures, the consumption of derivatives would grow 6.9 times and the total emissions of CO2eq would increase 7.93 times in the 2000-2035 period.
Topic:
Environment, Economic Policy, Domestic Policy, Carbon Emissions, and Cars
Political Geography:
Bolivia

4245. Life and Death During the First Six Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Alejandra Gonzales Rocabado
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This study carries out a cross-country analysis of changes in quantity and quality of life during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic (11 March to 11 September 2020) for 124 countries. Changes in quantity of life are measured as life years lost to COVID-19, including excess deaths not officially reported as COVID-19 deaths. Changes in quality of life are proxied by the average change in daily mobility, compared to a pre-COVID baseline. We find a significant negative correlation between the two, meaning that the countries with the biggest reductions in mobility are also the countries with the biggest losses of life years. We calculate that about 15 million life years were lost during the first six months of the pandemic, corresponding to 0.006% of all expected life years. For comparison, at least three times more life years are lost every six months due to children dying of diarrhea. About 28 million life years are created every day from babies being born, so the first six months of the pandemic set us back about 14 hours in terms of quantity of life. The setbacks in terms of quality of life are several orders of magnitude larger. Some countries have suffered more than a 50% reduction in mobility sustained over half a year, with devastating effects on many aspects of quality of life. Globally, the equivalent of 400 million full-time jobs were lost. GDP is estimated to have been set back about three years, poverty about five years, and the tourism industry about 20 years. The already large inequalities in access to quality education have been further widened, leaving hundreds of millions of disadvantaged children farther behind. Even countries that have managed the pandemic relatively well are suffering large economic contractions due to the negative spill-over effects from other countries. We still have a long way to go before this pandemic is over, and we urgently need to course-correct in order not to cause even more harm than has already been done. The paper provides a series of recommendations on what needs to be done to minimize total harm.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Mobility, Mortality, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

4246. Non-tariff Trade Policy Analysis: An Ex-post Assessment of the EU-Korea Agreement

Author:
Julia Grübler and Oliver Reiter
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Many different approaches have developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). Moving on from models using simple dummy variables, today a range of databases can capture different aspects of NTMs and FTAs. Some assess the depth of FTAs by extracting information from legal texts. Other data sources are based on surveys, on complaints by trading partners at the World Trade Organization (WTO) or notifications by companies or countries. This paper uses a gravity model to assess the value added of information on FTAs and NTMs by evaluating ex-post their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, the first ‘second-generation’ FTA of the EU, applied since 2011. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the FTA components, no extra trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The message from the evolution of NTMs differs considerably according to the indicator used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. On the aggregate country level, provisions on investments exhibit a particularly strong positive effect, while regulations on intellectual property rights seem to hamper bilateral trade. Most specifications, furthermore, point to a negative effect of differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Free Trade, WTO, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
Europe and South Korea

4247. On the Economic Effects of a Reallocation of EU Cohesion Policy Expenditures

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the economic effects of a reallocation of Cohesion Policy expenditures across EU countries. We evaluate a shift from stronger (i.e. older) Member States to less-developed EU economies (i.e. CEE countries) and vice versa. On top of that, we also assess the effects of a general reduction in the Cohesion Policy budget. For evaluation, we construct a demand-driven macroeconomic model which spans country models of 21 EU economies and is calibrated based on empirical data for the period 1995-2018. Our results suggest that a shift of Cohesion Policy funds to more (less) developed countries would result in a higher (lower) overall economic performance. However, the reallocation would affect economic outcomes in EU economies unevenly. In addition to direct effects on demand and production, it is pivotal to take into account indirect effects via trade as well. As a result, Cohesion Policy seems to be confronted with a trade-off between long-run convergence and short-run economic performance.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, European Union, Economic Growth, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

4248. Estimating Demand Spillovers of EU Cohesion Policy Using European Regional Input-Output Tables

Author:
Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper develops a simple method to consistently break down world input-output tables to regional input-output tables. They are used to estimate Cohesion Policy-induced demand spillovers in the EU, covering the years 2007-2018. Results indicate that Cohesion spillovers from less developed regions to other regions exceed 40% of their initial EU support in some cases. In addition, spillovers from the more developed regions are equivalent to 24% of their initial EU support. This shows that the existing trade and investment linkages across the EU regions are strong and not only run from less developed to more developed regions but also vice versa. Our results are good news for the net paying regions in the EU. Taking into account capacity growth effects, Cohesion Policy spillovers might well be a multiple of the pure demand spillovers estimated in this paper. Thus, for net paying regions, Cohesion Policy is not only an act of European solidarity but also a rational long-run economic growth policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

4249. The Effects of the EU Cohesion Policy on Regional Economic Growth: Using Structural Equation Modelling for Impact Assessment

Author:
Stefan Jestl, Ambre Maucorps, and Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the effects of the EU Cohesion Policy (CP) on the economic growth of 276 European NUTS-2 regions between 2008 and 2016. Using a structural equation model (SEM) consisting of both a measurement component (with two latent variables) and a structural component, we estimate the impact of CP funding on the growth of GDP per capita across EU regions. The estimation also enables us to predict changes in the growth of GDP per capita based on a scenario of CP funding reallocation between member states. Overcoming the limitations of traditional linear regression, SEM modelling proves to be a promising method for impact evaluation, also allowing for the inclusion of indirect causal paths and feedback loops to depict, for example, cross-border economic spillover effects.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, European Union, Economic Growth, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

4250. Greater than the Sum of its Parts?: How does Austria Profit from a Widening Network of EU Free Trade Agreements?

Author:
Julia Grübler and Oliver Reiter
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Political debates and economic analyses often focus on single free trade agreements and their potential economic effects on participating trading partners. This study contributes to the literature by shedding light on the significance of trade agreements in the context of countries’ positions in worldwide trade agreement networks, by combining network theory with gravity trade modelling. We illustrate, both numerically and graphically, the evolution of the global web of trade agreements in general, and the network of the European Union specifically, accounting for the geographical and temporal change in the depth of agreements implemented. Gravity estimations for the period 1995-2017 distinguish the direct bilateral effects of trade agreements from indirect effects attributable to the scope of trade networks and countries’ positions therein.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Profit, and Models
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

4251. Does Asymmetric Nonlinear Approach Explain the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Trade of Iran?

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi, Mohammad Sharif Karimi, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Until 2012, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) used its policy rate to stabilise the rial’s exchange rate and, given a persistent current-account surplus, had accumulated sizeable currency reserves. In 2012, however, international sanctions against Iran intensified and the value of the rial halved against the US dollar. Since then Iran has followed a dual interest rate policy, with both a market rate and an official rate applied by the CBI to major imports. In recent years, as sanctions have cut access to foreign reserves, the gap between the two rates has widened substantially. Given these important changes in the exchange rate regime, this paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in Iran over the period 1997-2017. For this purpose, an asymmetric model is used, as the speed of the effects of changes in the exchange rate can be asymmetric. The results of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) indicate that this is indeed the case. Results are generally consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition: an exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance, whereas an appreciation worsens it. However, the trade balance reacts more strongly in the short run to depreciations of the rial than to appreciations. Although the government could easily improve the trade balance in the short run through currency depreciation, policymakers should in the longer run promote non-oil exports to reduce dependency on oil and to diversify the economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Central Bank, and Models
Political Geography:
Europe and Iran

4252. Refugees’ Integration into the Austrian Labour Market: Dynamics of Occupational Mobility and Job-Skills Mismatch

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Eight multilateral rounds of negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and international agreements under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have contributed significantly to the reduction of tariffs among WTO members. However, over the years legitimate reasons for the imposition of non-tariff measures (NTMs) within regulations have triggered their extensive use. Among these measures, technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures allow countries to impose restrictions on the import of low-quality products suspected of harming domestic consumers’ health, plant life or the environment. Such trade policy instruments may lead to higher standards in the import market, in addition to improving market efficiency through information requirements such as mandatory labelling. This paper analyses two types of regulative and standard-like NTMs – TBTs and SPS measures – and the quality improvement of traded products that is driven by their imposition, which might be a general underlying motive for the adoption of such regulations. Based on a model framework involving both the supply and the demand side of trade and using four types of measures of these NTMs, this paper assesses the impact of TBTs and SPS measures on the quality of traded products. A dummy variable measuring the existence of these NTMs and a count variable indicating their stringency are used in the analysis. Moreover, two other variables indicate flows of NTMs imposed in each year and stocks of these NTMs accumulated over years. The results indicate that TBTs and SPS measures do indeed imply a higher quality of traded products, which is also consistent with the model when NTMs enter as a specific trade cost. Stringent TBTs with more regulations imposed in each year (i.e. flows of count TBTs) have the largest impact on the quality of traded products. However, for SPS measures only the existence of a regulation (i.e. the dummy variable on flows of SPS measures) on a traded product has the strongest impact on its quality.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, WTO, Non-Tariff Measures, and GATT
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

4253. Employers’ Skills Requirements in the Austrian Labour Market: On the Relative Importance of ICT, Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills over the Past 15 Years

Author:
Sandra Leitner and Oliver Reiter
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses job advertisements to identify the particular skills, abilities and characteristics that are in demand on the Austrian labour market. It takes a novel approach and uses information extracted from over 1.5 million job advertisements over the past 15 years from Austria’s largest online job portal, karriere.at, to shed light on employers’ skills needs and the relative importance of, and demand for, different skill types over time. It develops a taxonomy which classifies observable skills into information and communications technology (ICT) skills (which are of increasing importance as a result of the ongoing digital revolution), cognitive skills, cognitively based skills and non-cognitive (soft) skills; but it also takes into account other factors that frequently appear in job advertisements, such as previous work experience, physical appearance, and the willingness to travel, work overtime, weekends or shifts, among others. It shows that Austrian employers are quite demanding: cognitive skills, previous work experience and ICT skills were the three most frequent requirements, appearing in (almost) every second job advertisement in 2019. Over the years, these categories have also become increasingly important to employers. Among cognitively based skills, language skills were the most important, also appearing in every second job advertisement. The ability to work as part of a team, communication skills, independence, flexibility and accuracy were the top five non-cognitive (soft) skills demanded by employers.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Communications, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Market, Skilled Labor, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Austria

4254. CoronaShock and Patriarchy

Author:
Eli Gomez Alcorta
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
When mandatory preventative social isolation was announced in our country, only a few weeks had passed since 8 March, the date when women’s and the LGBTQIA+ movements once again put a political agenda and series of demands on the table. This agenda is linked to eliminating gender-based violence and inequality, which confront us in every aspect of life. The COVID-19 pandemic brought visibility and clarity to many of the things that feminist and socialist movements have been saying for some time. First of all, that we live in a system that has reached atrocious and unprecedented levels of inequality, exclusion, hate, and discrimination as if it were ‘normal’ or ‘natural’. It is not an exaggeration to say that if we don’t put an end to this ‘normalcy’, we will drive straight towards the destruction of the planet and of humanity. Second, on a global level, COVID-19 has also made clear the importance of the state, once again shedding light on the vitality of state intervention — not just any kind of intervention, but the intervention of a state that cares for people and health and that preserves life. The pandemic has also put care work into the spotlight like never before, shedding light on tasks that have historically been feminised, socially and economically devalued, and which have become increasingly precarious. Existing inequalities remain apparent. It is not the same to experience quarantine for those who live in houses and for those who live in shacks; for those who have work and those who do not; for those who have access to adequate infrastructure such as roads, internet, and transportation, and those who do not; those who have running water and those who do not; for women and for men; for cis women and for trans women… This inequality — which is normalised as if it were a natural phenomenon and not a political one — corresponds directly to the severity of the impact of today’s health crisis felt by different sectors of society. For women and the LGBTQIA+ community, the inequality and oppression associated with this ‘normalcy’ are reflected by the exacerbation of gender-based violence, the increase in poverty, and the increase and overload of care work. The enormous challenges that we face today are how to craft a strategy that takes the current emergency into account and that transcends it, and how to make sure that the impact of the pandemic doesn’t leave us even poorer, more subjected to violence, and more exploited. At the same time, we must work towards structural transformations that disarm relationships of power that reproduce violence and inequality. The role that we have as militants of popular feminism is central in the tasks that lie ahead of us. In our country, thousands of us have met for over thirty-four years[1] to discuss a political agenda for the women’s and feminist movement, sharing with each other and organising ourselves in various parts of the country. We have a history of labour organisation, of fighting for our rights and fighting for our work to be recognised. We see ourselves reflected in the struggle for human rights in our country, in the madres and abuelas[2] who are part of the history of our movement. In the last few years, the women’s movement has gained resounding strength. For five years, the Ni Una Menos (‘Not One Less’) movement has erupted in the streets of Argentina, putting on the agenda the urgent need of public policies to prevent gender-based violence and to provide aid to those who are subjected to such violence, demanding no nos maten más: stop killing us. With the Cambiemos (‘Let’s Change’) party in office[3] and the advance of neoliberalism, these debates of the movement lined up behind a new agenda. When there is an economic crisis, there is also a feminisation of poverty and of neoliberal policies, which hit women and the LGBTQIA+ community even harder, further exacerbating inequality. But the movement responded with organised resistance. The women’s movement led the first national women’s strike in 2016 and the massive ‘green wave’ during the debate on abortion in 2018, making it clear that the women’s and the LGBTQIA+ movement is among the most dynamic actors of our time. Standing on the shoulders of the struggles that came before us and the sisters of our Patria Grande (‘Great Homeland’)[4] and of the world, we must work to emerge from this crisis better off than we are now, to put everything up for debate, and to assure ourselves that this debate comes from a popular, progressive, and feminist consensus.
Topic:
Politics, Social Movement, Feminism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

4255. CoronaShock and Socialism

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In late December 2019, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in central China’s Hubei Province detected cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. In the first few days of January 2020, Chinese authorities were regularly informing the World Health Organisation (WHO) as well as other major countries and regions with close ties to China’s mainland, such as Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan about the outbreak. On 5 January, the WHO released its first briefing on a ‘pneumonia of unknown cause’ in Wuhan. Little was known about the virus, neither how to properly understand it nor whether transmission could occur between humans. The genome sequence for the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was published by the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) on 12 January. Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese pulmonologist who is advising the Chinese government on this pandemic, confirmed human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus on 20 January. As soon as it was clear that this virus could be transmitted between humans, the Chinese authorities acted. Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, was shut down, the scientific establishment in China – and its collaborators around the world – went to work to understand the virus and the disease (COVID-19), and medical personnel in China rushed to be trained and to help break the chain of the infection. Inside Wuhan, the neighbourhood committees, which include members of a range of other associations, Communist Party cadres, and volunteers of all kinds, hastened to assist with temperature checks, food and medicine distribution, and assistance in hospitals. After ten weeks in lockdown, Wuhan opened once more on 8 April. On 15 May, the authorities started to test all the residents of Wuhan once again in order to protect public health and to resume social and economic activities (China shared the results of this test to aid with studies on the feasibility of the herd immunity theory). On 30 January, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared that the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). From its Geneva headquarters, the WHO sent up a flare which effectively read: a highly contagious virus has been detected that requires stringent measures of tests, physical distance, and aggressive sanitation. At this point, in the aftermath of 20 January, a gulf opened between the capitalist states and the socialist states. Our analysis shows four main areas of differentiation between the socialist and capitalist approach to the virus. The socialist approach is based on: Science-based government action Public sector production of essential materials Public action mobilised to facilitate social life Internationalism In the capitalist states (such as the United States, Brazil, and India), the governments have instead operated in a hallucinatory manner, pretending that the virus is either not real or not contagious and hoping that some extraneous factor would protect their citizens from its dangers. For-profit sector firms have failed to provide the necessary equipment, while public action has been hard to galvanise in atomised societies that lack the habit of organisation and struggle. Finally, to cover up their incompetence, the ruling political class in these states has resorted to stigmatisation and jingoism, using – in this case – the lethal combination of racism and anti-communism to blame China. In this report, we look at three countries (Cuba, Venezuela, and Vietnam) as well as one state (Kerala, India) to investigate how these socialist parts of the world have been able to handle the virus more effectively.
Topic:
Governance, Capitalism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socialism
Political Geography:
India, Asia, Brazil, Vietnam, South America, Cuba, Caribbean, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

4256. CoronaShock and the Hybrid War Against Venezuela

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Swiftly moves the Coronavirus and COVID-19, dashing across continents, skipping over oceans, terrifying populations in every country. The numbers of those infected continue to rise, as do the numbers of those who have died. Hands are being washed, tests are being done, physical distance is being observed. It is unclear how devastating this pandemic will be or how long it will last. On 23 March, twelve days after the World Health Organisation declared a global pandemic, the UN Secretary General António Guterres said, ‘The fury of the virus illustrates the folly of war. That is why today I am calling for an immediate global ceasefire in all corners of the world. It is time to put armed conflict on lockdown and focus together on the true fight of our lives’. Secretary General Guterres talked about silencing the guns, stopping the artillery, and ending the airstrikes. He did not refer to a specific conflict, leaving his plea to hang heavily in the air. After six weeks of deliberation and delay caused by Washington, in the first week of May, the United States government blocked a vote in the UN Security Council on a resolution that called for a global ceasefire. The United States blocked this resolution, but even this resolution did not turn its attention to the kind of war that the US is prosecuting against Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela – among others. Instead, it has imposed a hybrid war. The US military complex has advanced its hybrid war programme, which includes a range of techniques to undermine governments and political projects. These techniques include the mobilisation of US power over international institutions (such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the SWIFT wire service) in order to prevent governments from managing basic economic activity; the use of US diplomatic power to isolate governments; the use of sanctions methods to prevent private companies from doing business with certain governments; the use of information warfare to render governments and political forces to be criminals or terrorists; and so on. This powerful complex of instruments is able – in the plain light of day – to destabilise governments and to justify regime change (for more on this, see the Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research dossier no. 17, Venezuela and Hybrid Wars in Latin America). During a pandemic, one would expect that all countries would collaborate in every way to mitigate the spread of the virus and its impact on human society. One would expect that a humanitarian crisis of this magnitude would provide the opportunity to end all inhumane economic sanctions and political blockades against certain countries. On 24 March, the day after UN Secretary General Guterres’s plea, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet agreed that ‘at this crucial time, both for global public health reasons, and to support the rights and lives of millions of people in these countries, sectoral sanctions should be eased or suspended. In a context of [a] global pandemic, impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us’. A few days later, Hilal Elver, the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food, said that she was gratified to hear both Guterres and Bachelet call for an end to the sanctions regime. The problem, she indicated, lies with Washington: ‘The US, under the current administration, is very keen to continue the sanctions. Fortunately, some other countries are not. For instance, the European Union and many of the European countries are responding positively and easing sanctions during this time of the coronavirus. They are not completely lifting sanctions but interrupting them, and there are some communications going on, but not in the US, unfortunately’. On 6 May, three other UN Special Rapporteurs – Olivier De Schutter (on extreme poverty and human rights), Léo Heller (on human rights to safe drinking water and sanitation), and Koumbou Boly Barry (on the right to education) – said that ‘in light of the coronavirus pandemic, the United States should immediately lift blanket sanctions, which are having a severe impact on the human rights of the Venezuelan people’. Nevertheless, the Trump administration has brushed aside all concern and continued with its agenda of hybrid war towards regime change.
Topic:
Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

4257. China and CoronaShock

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This is the first in a multiple part series of studies on CoronaShock. It is made up of three articles on how China identified the novel coronavirus and then how the Chinese government and Chinese society fought against its wider diffusion. The report is researched and written by Vijay Prashad (Director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research), Du Xiaojun (a translator and linguist from Shanghai), and Weiyan Zhu (an attorney from Beijing). These articles first appeared through the Globetrotter service of the Independent Media Institute. The paintings in this booklet have been done by Li Zhong, an artist from Shanghai. At the end of the booklet is an interview with Li Zhong conducted by Tings Chak (Lead Designer at Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research).
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4258. Paulo Freire and Popular Struggle in South Africa

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The ideas of the radical Brazilian educationalist Paulo Freire had a profound impact on popular struggles in South Africa. Initially taken up by Steve Biko and others in the Black Consciousness movement in the early 1970s, Freire’s ideas spread to the trade union movement and to the community movements. Today, Freire’s ideas continue to be used in progressive organisations in South Africa and to guide the work of many people undertaking political education work.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Radicalization, Community, and Black Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4259. Youth in Brazil’s Peripheries in the Era of CoronaShock

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Today’s youth tend to feel lost amidst organisations forged in previous decades. Major left-wing organisations created in the 1980s now face challenges to incorporate them. That doesn’t mean that youth are not engaged in politics, that they are not taking part in collectives, or that they are not forging their own social networks. Our challenge is to understand where and how young people are taking part in politics, becoming collective actors, and sharing their experiences, distress, dreams, and solutions.
Topic:
Culture, Youth, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

4260. One Hundred Years of the Communist Movement in India

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 32 provides a brief introduction to the history of the communist movement in India, which turns one hundred years old on 17 October 2020. Founded by a handful of Indian freedom fighters who were inspired by the October Revolution, the Indian communist movement has a history of glorious struggles and significant achievements. The communists in India have tirelessly worked to advance the rights of the working people, and to demonstrate the possibility of a future without the exploitation of human beings by human beings.
Topic:
Communism, Social Movement, Radicalization, and Activim
Political Geography:
India and Asia