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4181. Breaking the ‘everybody knows paradigm’

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Even if the Palestinians reject Trump’s peace plan, it still serves their long-term interests. False, undeliverable expectations – based on the assumption that “everybody knows” what Israel will be forced to concede – eventually need to give way to a more realistic paradigm, which in turn may lead to a better life for both sides.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

4182. The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

4183. Jordan will not impede the US peace plan

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is convenient for Amman to have Israel retain security control over the Jordan Valley. And this is a rare opportunity to advance and potentially realize Israel’s security needs for a cemented border in the east with the support of the world’s top superpower.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

4184. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
Topic:
Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

4185. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

4186. No to the planned Palestinian elections

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Jerusalem is not the place to hold elections for a foreign entity.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

4187. Putin’s surprise visit to Syria

Author:
Micky Aharonson and Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

4188. Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?

Author:
Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
Topic:
Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Legislation, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4189. More pressure on Iran still needed

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Trump has made it clear that attacks on American personnel are going to elicit a military reaction.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4190. The Precarious Lull in Northeast Syria

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, Ceasefire, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4191. Iran lacks good options

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

4192. The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

4193. Israel Shouldn’t Draw Fixed Lines Between Itself and China

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Jewish state’s relationship with the U.S. is stronger for resting on an informal basis; replacing it with a formal alliance would do no good and only anger the world’s other major power.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Peace, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4194. The Impact of COVID-19 on Russia’s Middle East and Syria Policies

Author:
Leonid Isaev and Andrey Sakharov
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
May 3 rd, Russia’s COVID-19 infection rate resembled that of the United Kingdom. This situation has the potential to significantly impact the country’s financial situation, influencing the country’s foreign policy toward the Middle East. By the beginning of the lock-down period, the most optimistic forecasts for 2020 predicted a fall in the Russian economy by 4-6% of GDP.1 However, after four weeks of confinement, a decline of 6-8% was considered to be the most positive scenario, provided that it is possible to avoid a second wave for the epidemic in the autumn as predicted by the Higher School of Economics forecast. The Russian situation is complicated by the fact that the outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with the dramatic decline in oil and gas prices. The federal budget’s breakeven price for 2020 was set at $42.4 per barrel.3 However, prices by the end of March and the beginning of April went significantly lower. This means that Russia may not be able to match the predicted government spending for 2020. Moreover, its leadership may not be able to spend money as generously to advance projects serving the country’s foreign policy. Moscow, short on revenue, will unlikely take foreign policy and domestic political adventures. Foreign policy projects, primarily those that require significant budgetary expenditures in the Middle East and specifically in Syria, will be frozen. A passive Russian international engagement is expected to dominate until the end of 2020. The exception to this policy will be when a response is unavoidable. Domestic policy is likely to be just as reactive. The baseline will likely be to maintain the current state of affairs and absorb any shocks to stability given the scarcity of financial resources.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

4195. The UAE’s Role in Syria’s Stability

Author:
Najla al-Qasemi
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has pursued a careful policy towards the Syrian conflict based on keeping Syrian state institutions intact and simultaneously supporting Syrian people’s aspirations. In order to maintain this balance, Abu Dhabi has relied in part on a legacy of pragmatic relations with Damascus since the 1990s. This legacy allowed Abu Dhabi to resume its diplomatic ties with Damascus with the aim of drawing it closer to its Arab neighbours when Iran’s influence over the country’s decision-making increased. In order to keep its engagement constructive, the UAE has utilised humanitarian aid since 2011 to support the Syrian people in refugee camps outside the country and within Syria especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The UAE however faces challenges from regional and international actors involved in the Syrian conflict.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Hegemony, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and UAE

4196. Is the “New Normal” in Idlib Different from the “Old Normal”?: How the COVID-19 Pandemic has Affected Idlib

Author:
Serhat Erkman
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
Topic:
Conflict, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4197. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria

Author:
Nikolay Surkov
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4198. COVID-19 in Turkish Controlled Areas and Idlib

Author:
Başak Yavçan
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The safe zones in the northern part of Syria have been established following three operations in the region, namely: the Euphrates Shield in 2016, the Olive Branch in 2018, and the Peace Spring in 2019. Before the outbreak of pandemic, the healthcare capacity was semisufficient with urgent cases being treated in Turkey and with frequent hospital transfers being conducted. In terms of livelihood opportunities, humanitarian aid was predominantly channelled through Turkey with limited involvement of Western and international organisations. Trade with the outside world was limited due to the sanctions imposed on Syria. The infrastructural investment in the region was predominantly made by the Turkish state and NGOs in the form of renovations and building of schools, hospitals, as well as water and energy supply. As of May 28th, 2020, there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in both regions yet living conditions have deteriorated due to the conditions in Turkey, Syria and rest of the world.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

4199. Regulating and Limiting the Proliferation of Armed Drones: Norms and Challenges

Author:
Cholpon Orozobekova and Marc Finaud
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
As a consequence of the attractiveness of the use of drones – for obvious reasons of cost and pilot safety – the international market in armed drones is booming, creating risks of widespread proliferation, especially to non-state actors or states known for their lack of respect for the laws of warfare.This paper analyses these proliferation risks and formulates recommendations on how to mitigate them. Starting in the late 20th century, the growth of guided-missile technologyled the international community to draw up political and legal rules in order to control the export of such sensitive equipment – subsequently including UAVs – to countries where the risk of uncontrolled and/or illicit proliferation and use is the highest. The first such attempt was the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which was established in 1987 to harmonise policies for the export of missiles and related technology and has been gradually extended to cover UAVs. The second regime was a voluntary transparency measure, the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA), established in 1991, to which UN member states are encouraged to report their exports and imports of conventional arms, including UAVs. The third was the Wassenaar Arrangement, launched in 1996 as a multilateral export control regime for conventional and dual-use goods and technologies, to which UAVs were added. The most recent initiative is the ATT, which entered into force in 2014 and regulates transfers of conventional arms, including certain categories of UAVs. As we will see in section 2, however, these regimes are far from being universal and all have limitations that make it difficult to impose constraints on UAV exports.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4200. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria

Author:
Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America