Search

Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 5 Years

321. The War in Ukraine: Reality Check for Emerging Technologies and the Future of Warfare

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Federico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of one of the most intense and brutal state-on-state conflicts opposing two modern militaries in recent memory. Despite Russia’s qualitative and quantitative advantages, Ukraine’s armed forces have so far put up strong resistance, foiling Russian plans of a quick victory and turning the conflict into a bloody war of attrition. Due to its scale and the nature of its belligerents, the conflict can provide us with a glimpse into what the future of warfare might look like and help us recentre the burgeoning conversation about the future of warfare in the current reality, especially as it relates to the presence and impact of emerging technologies. The war therefore offers us a way to understand how digital and off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) impact conflicts of this scale and how relevant they are to current modern warfare. The war can also help us see how new actors become involved in warfare, what new means of influencing nation states are becoming available, and which new tools armed forces can use to affect battlefield outcomes. Importantly, it can help us gauge their importance relative to more traditional aspects of warfare. The analysis is structured in four main parts. This introduction is followed by a short contextualisation to situate the analysis in the wider conversation about emerging technologies and the future of warfare (Part 2). Part 3 provides a short overview of the conflict so far, dividing it into six phases. Part 4 surveys the main elements of the conflict in Ukraine, outlining what emerging technologies have been present and critically assessing their role in the war. Part 5 delves into some implications for the future of warfare that can be understood from the dynamics analysed thus far, especially as they relate to the place of emerging technologies in future conflicts and their role in determining battlefield outcomes. We argue that while some new technologies have come to characterise modern warfare, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict shows that many features of warfighting remain unchanged. Emerging technologies, such as AI and cheaper technological alternatives to traditional armaments, such as drones, are undoubtedly starting to change the battlefield and will play an increasingly larger role in future conflicts. Cyberspace and the globalised digital information space are bringing new actors and new means to exert influence, provide nations’ armed forces with new tools, and make battlefields increasingly globalised and complex. However, the conflict also shows that traditional aspects of warfare will not decrease in importance or be sidelined. Conflicts remain a contest of wills and adaptation, where ammunition supplies, the quantity of traditional armaments such as tanks, and both the number and quality of personnel and the logistical and organisational ability to bring all these elements to bear all remain the most important determinants of success. While technology is playing an increasing role in this equation, it remains unable to determine the outcome of a conflict on its own.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

322. The Prospective of the Western Balkans to the EU Membership: Challenges and Possible Ways Forward

Author:
Anila Jelesijević
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The integration of the Western Balkan countries into the European Union (EU) remains a slow process. The EU’s focus on the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia has negatively affected these countries’ motivation to proceed with the reforms needed to join the EU. Their aim is to become part of the EU family, but a real commitment and productive interaction from both sides that will lead to such an integration is an essential requirement. This Geneva Paper aims to develop recommendations for what can be done to allow the Western Balkan countries to join the EU as soon as possible.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

323. The Wagner Group, Russia’s Foreign Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Kemal Mohamedou
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Set up in 2014 as a private organisation, the Wagner Group has conducted numerous military activities internationally that remain shrouded in mystery. Through documented investigations, it emerges that the group is less akin to a traditional private military contractor and more a tool in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s military arsenal. Through its deployment in the Central African Republic and Mali, the group has gained an important foothold in sub-Saharan Africa and has furthered Russian foreign policy aims in the region, enabling Moscow to advance three key aims: (1) achieving recognition for Russia as a great power through global geopolitical repositioning; (2) undermining Western interests by building a Russian sphere of influence; and (3) enhancing Russian soft power. The historical anti-imperial Soviet advances in the post-colonial era had facilitated present-day Russian endeavours in Africa, providing a narrative for the Russian state’s foreign policy goals. While the Wagner Group has employed various political strategies to exert soft-power influence, it has also resorted to a coercive approach to suppress anti-government and anti-Russian activity. Russian advisors have developed repressive tactics, instrumentalising local state institutions and national armed forces to threaten opponents. The Wagner Group’s activities in sub-Saharan Africa have demonstrated a concerted effort to enhance Russia’s influence in the region and secure the country’s strategic interests. While Russia is not the sole external actor in Africa, the current political orientation adopted by the Kremlin towards sub-Saharan Africa can ultimately be read as a move to fragment and unsettle Western presence across the continent. In this context, the merging of paramilitary and non-military actions in Africa is of particular relevance, allowing Russia to project power, exert influence and – crucially – unsettle local state-building projects.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

324. You’re not like us! Ethnic discrimination and national belonging in Nigeria

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This study examines how Nigerians’ experience of ethnic discrimination relates to their sense of national identification vs. ethnic identification. A regression analysis reveals that the experience of discrimination prompts Nigerians to prioritise their ethnic identity over their national identity. The regressions also show that the negative effect of discrimination on an exclusive feeling of national identification is larger than its positive effect on an exclusive feeling of ethnic identification. These findings are robust to different operationalisations of discrimination and to the use of individual level survey data covering 36 African countries. Among the Nigerian population, Igbo ethnicity increased the likelihood of individuals prioritising their ethnic identity over their national identity, while Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani ethnicities had the opposite effect.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

325. ‘God is my refuge’: Do education and news consumption prompt Africans to put more trust in the COVID-19 vaccine than in prayer?

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Using Afrobarometer survey data covering 15 African countries, this study examines the impact of educational attainment and news consumption on Africans’ beliefs regarding whether prayer is more effective than a vaccine in preventing COVID-19. Regression results show that education reduces individuals’ likelihood of believing that prayer is more effective than a vaccine in preventing the disease. This might be because education encourages critical thinking, prompting people to believe more in science, which is evidence-based, rather than in prayer, which is based on supernatural beliefs. Likewise, news consumption reduces individuals’ likelihood of believing that prayer is more effective than a vaccine. This might be because most of the news that Africans encountered during the COVID-19 pandemic emphasised the severity of the disease and encouraged vaccination. Regression results also show that, compared to non-religious individuals, Christians and Muslims were more likely to believe that prayer is more effective than a vaccine, while those practicing ethnic/traditional religion were less likely to hold such beliefs.
Topic:
Education, Health, Religion, Survey, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

326. Coups and social trust: Evidence from a natural experiment in Burkina Faso

Author:
Thomas Brailey, Robin Harding, and Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups, which represent a distinctive form of intra-elite conflict. Building on insights from work in philosophy and social psychology, we conceptualise trust as an adaptive response to vulnerability. Coups represent moments of violent competition for power between elites that create uncertainty about the state as a provider of security and essential services. Consequently, we argue that social trust will increase in response to coups, as a means of offsetting this uncertainty and insecurity. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Burkina Faso to identify the causal effect of coups on social trust, using data from a survey that was in the field during September 2022, when Burkina Faso experienced its second coup of that year. This provides robust evidence that coups can increase social trust, and further analysis supports the proposed mechanism that increased social trust following the coup was a response to uncertainty and insecurity. For external validity, analysis of cross-national survey data from the Afrobarometer series suggests that the positive relationship between coup exposure and social trust holds more broadly.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, and Social Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

327. Economic prosperity and public backing for transparent and accountable governance in Africa

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Emmanuel Chukwuebuka Orakwe
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Popular demands for social justice in Africa, as in the rest of the world, are often embedded in calls for better governance (Gray & Khan, 2010), which often include transparency and accountability. Przeworski, Stokes, and Manin (1999) define political accountability as the capacity of citizens to exert control over their leaders through institutional sanctions, especially through elections. Lindberg’s (2009) attempt to simplify the concept of political accountability resonates with Ohamadike (2022), who defines political accountability as the link between citizens (the principal) and government or public officials (the agents) tasked with safeguarding the rights and aspirations of the populace. This link forms a social contract upon which the agents (government or public officials) can be held accountable for their actions, with the principal having the privilege to impose sanctions on the agents, which can include removing them from their positions of power. Political transparency and accountability complement one another, but popular support for these ideals varies widely at the country level in Africa. Both ideals can be considered “matching parts” in governance (Hood, 2010). Transparency entails making government information accessible to the public, which gives citizens the knowledge needed to hold officials accountable. Accountability, on the other hand, requires that public officials justify their actions and decisions, which can be done by adhering to the citizens’ demands (Armah-Attoh, Ampratwum, & Paller, 2014). Addressing citizens’ demands is important for government to remain popular and relevant to the people. Although experts have long connected transparency and accountability with strong government performance, citizens vary in how much they prioritise or even support these concepts. One factor that might impact how citizens form these attitudes is economic well being. This question – the impact of economic performance on attitudes about accountability and transparency – is underexplored. We argue that lower levels of economic development are associated with higher citizen support for accountability and transparency. Due to the pervasive poor economic outlook in most African societies, much of the citizenry is gruelingly aware of deep-seated government corruption and poor government responsiveness to citizen needs, which they often feel powerless to tackle (Franz, 2012). Citizens of less-prosperous economies might perceive transparent and accountable governance as a means to address urgent economic issues, allowing them to get more from their government. Conversely, economic prosperity can incentivise individuals to back a government that seems to be achieving results independently, diminishing citizens’ insistence on changes, such as government transparency and accountability. This perspective emerges from trust in the government’s competence, which could cultivate complacency regarding the necessity of transparency and accountability. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a multilevel logistic regression analysis using data from the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. We find that economic factors significantly influence attitudes. Citizenship in a prosperous African country is associated with lower support for transparent and accountable governance, whereas living in a less affluent country is associated with heightened prioritisation. This paper is structured as follows: Part 2 discusses the research methodology, covering the data, data sources, and analytical techniques. In the results section, findings from a sample of 48,084 Africans are presented. Concluding discussions follow in Part 4.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Banking
Political Geography:
Africa

328. Willingness of Zambians to sacrifice democratic principles during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19

Author:
Isaac Newton Bortey
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What is the impact of a pandemic on citizens’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles? Using the novel COVID-19 pandemic as a case, I assess how the effects of COVID-19 influence Zambians’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles through censorship of the media, postponement of elections, and the use of security forces to enforce public health mandates. I analyse data from the Round 8 Afrobarometer survey in Zambia (collected in 2020 from 1,200 adults), which included questions on COVID-19. Results of a multiple linear regression and a logistic regression suggest that Zambians’ experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic have an influence on their willingness to sacrifice democratic principles. Those who lost a job due to the pandemic are less willing to accept a sacrifice of democratic principles, while positive assessments of the government’s management of the pandemic and perceptions of the pandemic as serious increase people’s willingness to suspend democratic principles. The findings also suggest that Zambians’ trust in the president and their perceptions of the government as legitimate make them more willing to agree to forfeit a democratic principle, at least when the country is faced with a pandemic.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Democracy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

329. Economic Impacts of Climatic Change on African Women

Author:
Hélène Maisonnave and Martin Henseler
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Lower access to money and assets makes women less resilient against climate change impacts, like extreme weather events (floods, drought) and scarcity of resources such as water and food. In agriculturally based economies in Africa, most women work in the climate-sensitive agricultural sectors. Moreover, women face time poverty because they are the main ones responsible for domestic work, for example, childcare, collecting water and fuel, and food preparation. At the same time, women are extremely important for the current and future economic growth in developing economies. In Africa, all these women-specific challenges apply on a continent highly exposed to the impacts of climate change but are regionally heterogeneous. Understanding the region-specific impact of climate change on women is the key to designing effective and efficient policies to counteract the negative impacts on women.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Natural Disasters, and Women
Political Geography:
Africa

330. Engaging WPS in Climate Security – ASEAN Perspectives

Author:
Tamara Nair
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Climate change processes are acknowledged as critical components of regional and international security, and there is scope for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (henceforth, ASEAN) to mobilise all segments of its population and existing plans of action addressing climate change to confront this challenge. The role of women in ASEAN’s peace and security and their role climate change mitigation can and should be acknowledged and strengthened systematically. The ASEAN Women, Peace and Security Regional Plan of Action (WPS RPA) offers such an opportunity for increased regional cooperation to build resilience and enhance resourcefulness of women’s formal, but in particular, informal networks. Although climate change does feature in the RPA, it is not within the specific focus of how the WPS framework might work in addressing the need for gender sensitive responses to the effect of climate change. This Insight discusses possible advantages of using the RPA in this manner.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Resilience, ASEAN, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

331. Argentina's President Milei Aims for Economy "Shock Therapy"

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Dealing with the deepening economic crisis is the top priority for the government of ultraliberal President Javier Milei, who took over in Argentina on 10 December 2023. The scale of the challenge and the lack of a parliamentary majority will complicate the implementation of his plans, which include the dollarisation of the economy and the elimination of the central bank. In foreign policy, Milei promises to prioritise relations with the U.S. and Israel, among other goals. Although he cancelled the previous government’s decision to join BRICS, it is doubtful whether he will limit relations with key partners such as China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, BRICS, Economic Crisis, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:
Argentina

332. Defence of Baltic States, Poland Runs into Ottawa Treaty on Mines

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner and Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
By deciding to build a defence line on the border with Russia and declaring the possibility of using anti-personnel mines, representatives of the Estonian parliament have opened the debate on possible withdrawal from the 1997 Ottawa Treaty on anti-personnel mines. This step may be necessary for the Baltic States to protect their territories from aggression, as they are faced with a lack of operational depth. However, for other states, including Poland, which have other power-projection capabilities, it is a last resort.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Landmines, and Ottawa Treaty
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, Estonia, and Baltic States

333. Alternatives to the U.S. Dollar as a Global Currency Face Brick Walls

Author:
Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the wake of a series of economic and political crises, including developing countries’ external debt crisis and Russian aggression against Ukraine and related sanctions, there has been speculation about the possible replacement of the U.S. dollar (USD) in the global economy. This could take place through the emergence of a new global currency or a shift to settlements in the currencies of the transacting parties. Either of these solutions involves political and economic difficulties and is not currently realistic. It is advisable that Poland, in its foreign policy, assumes the continuation of the dominance of USD in the global economy.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Currency, and Dollar
Political Geography:
Poland and Global Focus

334. EU Needs Better Monitoring to Enforce Sanctions on Russian Disinformation Online

Author:
Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
EU sanctions partially restrict the activities of Russian-affiliated media in the Union, but a challenge remains to reduce the scale of sanctions circumvention online. All Member States could introduce internet monitoring for compliance with EU restrictions and mechanisms to remove sites duplicating banned content. The EU should adopt a new sanctions regime on Russian destabilisation activities globally as soon as possible.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Internet, Disinformation, and Monitoring
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

335. Senegal Redefines International Partnerships

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The new Senegalese authorities, who vowed radical reforms during the campaign, have begun a review of the state’s international relations. As part of this process, they plan, among other things, to renegotiate the fisheries agreement with the EU, expel French troops, and reform or leave the regional monetary union. Despite the revolutionary rhetoric, similar to that of the populist military regimes from the Sahel, the Senegalese approach to the economy and regional politics is rational and, in the long term, aligned with EU interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Populism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Senegal

336. Human Rights, but with CPC Characteristics, Rising in China's Foreign Policy

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For China, human rights in relation to a sovereignty is gaining importance in its cooperation with countries of the Global South. The Chinese authorities emphasise the right of governments to make their own decisions in this area, which is welcomed by many of these, mainly authoritarian, states. For the EU, it is important both to counter the Chinese narrative on such disparities in human rights standards and to apply sanctions against China in cases of violations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sovereignty, Sanctions, and European Union
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Global South

337. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations Improving

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fifth round of negotiations between Türkiye and Armenia, held on 30 July, offers hope for an acceleration of the normalisation of their relations, including the opening of borders between the countries. However, the success of the negotiations depends on the settlement of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan. Such an agreement would unblock transport routes in the South Caucasus region, as well as increase the presence of the EU and Poland in the region.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Borders, Negotiation, Transportation, Normalization, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Poland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

338. The Revolution in Bangladesh Raises the Prospect of Renewed Democracy

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 5 August, a social revolution forced Bangladesh’s long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down and leave the country. The massive anti-government protests were caused by a combination of the authoritarian rule and increasingly difficult post-pandemic economic situation. A transitional government led by Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus will be tasked with stabilising the country and preparing for free and fair parliamentary elections. It is in the West’s interest to strengthen democracy in Bangladesh. Poland can use this moment of democratic transition to intensify bilateral cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Revolution, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Poland

339. Growth, Decarbonisation, Security: a Recipe for Strengthening the EU's Economic Condition

Author:
Melchior Szczepanik and Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, in their reports on the economic condition of the EU, urge the organisation to double down on its objectives formulated in recent years: stimulating growth in a manner consistent with climate policy and reducing dangerous economic dependencies. The most controversial issue is how the recommended measures will be financed. Their implementation also will require striking a balance between several priorities—not entirely compatible—both within EU economic policy and in relations with main economic partners.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Europe

340. Russia Changes Its Nuclear Doctrine

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The publication of Russia’s new nuclear doctrine is another in its attempts to intimidate NATO states, especially in order to discourage them from supporting Ukraine. Russia is lowering the declared threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and specifying additional situations in which it is to be possible. This does not mean, however, an increased danger of nuclear weapons use in the ongoing conflict. Russia is nonetheless likely to take further steps to heighten the fears of such a scenario among NATO governments and societies. At the same time, the document reflects the weakening of Russia’s conventional forces.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine