Number of results to display per page
Search Results
262. Robotisation, Employment and Industrial Growth Intertwined Across Global Value Chains
- Author:
- Mahdi Ghodsi, Oliver Reiter, Robert Stehrer, and Roman Stöllinger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The global economy is currently experiencing a new wave of technological change involving new technologies, especially in the realm of artificial intelligence and robotics, but not limited to it. One key concern in this context is the consequences of these new technologies on the labour market. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the direct and indirect effects of the rise of industrial robots and productivity via international value chains on various industrial indicators, including employment and real value added. The paper thereby adds to the existing empirical work on the relationship between technological change, employment and industrial growth by adding data on industrial robots while controlling for other technological advancements measured by total factor productivity (TFP). The results indicate that the overall impact of the installation of new robots did not statistically affect the growth of industrial employment during the period 2000–2014 significantly, while the overall impact on the real value added growth of industries in the world was positive and significant. The methodology also allows for a differentiation between the impact of robots across various industries and countries based on two different perspectives of source and destination industries across global value chains.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Industry, and Robotics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
263. Japan and the Visegrad 4: The Unsensational Strategic Partners
- Author:
- Rudolf Furst
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations Prague
- Abstract:
- The Euro-Japanese rapprochement stimulates the Japanese interest in the new EU member states, which are then matched with Japanese investments and Japan’s global trade strategy. The V4 countries benefit from their geographical position, existing infrastructure and political stability, industrial tradition, and low labour costs, emphasizes Rudolf Fürst.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Labor Issues, European Union, Political stability, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, and Asia
264. Pandemic, informality, and vulnerability: Impact of COVID-19 on livelihoods in India
- Author:
- Surbhi Kesar, Rosa Abraham, Rahul Lahoti, Paaritosh Nath, and Amit Basole
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- We analyze findings from a large-scale survey of around 5000 respondents across 12 states of India to study the impact of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures (lockdown) on employment, livelihoods, food security and access to relief measures. We find a massive increase in unemployment, an equally dramatic fall in earnings among informal workers, large increases in food insecurity, depletion of savings and patchy coverage of relief measures. Two-thirds of our respondents lost work. The few informal workers who were still employed during the lockdown experienced more than a fifty percent drop in their earnings. Even among regular wage workers, half received either no salary or reduced salary during the lockdown. Almost eighty percent of surveyed households experienced a reduction in their food intake and a similar percentage of urban households did not have enough money to pay next month's rent. We also use a set of logistic regressions to identify how employment loss and food intake varies with individual and householdlevel characteristics. We find that migrants and urban Muslims are significantly worse off with respect to employment and food security. Among employment categories, self-employed workers were more food secure. The Public Distribution System (PDS) system was seen to have the widest reach among social security measures. However, even under PDS, 16 percent of vulnerable urban households did not have access to government rations. Further, half of the respondents reported not receiving any cash transfers (state or central). We conclude that much more is needed in the way of direct fiscal support that has been announced thus far by state and central governments in India.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Unemployment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- India
265. The impact economy: balancing profit and impact
- Author:
- Dirk Schoenmaker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Governments and companies can reinforce each other in their pursuit of sustainable development, which is based on three pillars: economic, social and environmental. An impact economy, in which governments and companies balance profit and impact, is best placed to achieve the United Nations sustainable development goals.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, United Nations, Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
266. Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas and Zoltan Schepp
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Global Political Economy, and Exchange Rate Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
267. La Riqueza Escondida de Loreto: Análisis de Complejidad Económica y Oportunidades de Diversificación Productiva
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- El Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard, bajo el auspicio de la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore, ha desarrollado esta investigación para identificar las capacidades productivas existentes en Loreto y las actividades económicas con potencial para liderar la transformación estructural de su economía. Este reporte forma parte de una investigación más amplia – Transformación estructural y restricciones limitantes a la prosperidad en Loreto, Perú – que busca aportar insumos para el desarrollo de políticas públicas a escala nacional y regional que contribuyan a promover el desarrollo productivo y la prosperidad de la región, tomando en cuenta sus características particulares.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Diversification, and Economic Complexity
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Mexico
268. 30 Years of Economic Transformation in CEE: Key Five Lessons For Belarus
- Author:
- Aleś Alachnovič, Andrzej Raczko, Izabela Styczynska, Jarosław Neneman, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, Pawel Swianiewicz, and Sierž Naŭrodski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991. As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Economic Growth, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
269. Syria’s Growing Economic Woes: Lebanon’s Crisis, the Caesar Act and Now the Coronavirus
- Author:
- Jihad Yazigi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The already bleak prospects of the Syrian economy have worsened in recent months with the Lebanon crisis, the enactment of the Caesar Act and now the coronavirus pandemic. This paper examines their impact on the Syrian economy and the population at large. While the cumulative impact is hard to assess at this stage, Syria’s population will remain heavily dependent on the international humanitarian effort. The future of this effort will itself depend on major donor countries whose own economies are likely to emerge weakened from the coronavirus pandemic.
- Topic:
- Economics, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
270. Lebanon: Government Recovery Plan Asks Too Much of Ordinary Lebanese, and Not Enough from Elites
- Author:
- Sami Halabi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Facing an economy in free-fall, the Lebanese government has finally adopted a financial recovery plan that it has sent to the IMF and international donors. This paper argues that the plan fails to introduce strong accountability measures to address rampant corruption and mismanagement and does not tackle widespread inequality which could be done through a better distribution of losses and the introduction of more progressive taxation. Despite the government’s stated promise to “protect the poorest segments of the population from the dire consequences of the crisis”, the paper expects the plan to inevitably harm Lebanon’s poorest as well as its middle class.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon