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Begin New Search Topic Disarmament Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 5 Years Publication Year within 25 Years Publication Year within 3 Years

1. Revisiting ‘Minimal Nuclear Deterrence’: Laying the Ground for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The prospects for nuclear arms control appear dim following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead of continued reliance on nuclear deterrence, the resulting new awareness of nuclear risks should inform bold nuclear disarmament measures in the long term. Drawing on previous debates on ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, this paper argues that nuclear deterrence is possible at low numbers, and hence reliance on nuclear deterrence is not an obstacle to significant progress in nuclear disarmament. In particular, there is scope for reducing the vast Russian and United States nuclear arsenals, which risk planetary-scale destruction and stand in the way of multilateral nuclear disarmament. At the same time, recent military-technological evolution has raised the bar for minimal nuclear deterrence by questioning the survivability of nuclear forces. In addition to making recommendations on how to address such strategic challenges, the paper addresses some conceptual dilemmas traditionally associated with minimal nuclear deterrence.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Multilateralism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Reinvigorating South Asian Nuclear Transparency and Confidence-building Measures

Author:
Lora Saalman
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This SIPRI Insights paper explores a series of nuclear transparency and confidence-building measures (CBMs) proposed by military, nuclear, political and regional experts from China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States to address nuclear challenges in South Asia. It categorizes these bilateral, trilateral and multilateral measures into doctrinal dialogues and joint threat assessment exercises; communication lines, pre-notification and de-alerting; and development and employment of strategic technologies. The paper then provides a spectrum of viability across which it identifies proposals with the greatest potential, moderate potential and the least potential for reinvigorating nuclear transparency measures and CBMs in South Asia.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and United States of America

3. Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2020

Author:
Nan Tian, Alexandra Marksteiner, and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
World military expenditure in 2020 is estimated to have been $1981 billion, the highest level since 1988—the earliest year for which SIPRI has a consistent estimate for total global military spending. World military expenditure in 2020 was 2.6 per cent higher in real terms than in 2019 and 9.3 per cent higher than in 2011. The global military burden—world military expenditure as a share of global gross domestic product—rose by 0.2 percentage points in 2020, to 2.4 per cent. This increase was largely due to the fact that most countries in the world experienced severe economic downturns in 2020 related to the Covid-19 pandemic, while military expenditure continued to rise overall. This Fact Sheet highlights the regional and national military expenditure data for 2020 and trends over the decade 2011–20. The data is from the updated open-access SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, which provides military spending data by country for the years 1949–2020.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Military Spending, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. European Union and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Mehmet Ünlü
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on July 7, 2017. The Treaty is a legal instrument that highlights the humanitarian aspect of nuclear disarmament and provides an alternative to the disarmament approach of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Because this Treaty sought to eliminate nuclear weapons, nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and states whose security is based on nuclear deterrence, criticized it for weakening the NPT. However, particular states and supranational nongovernmental organizations, such as the International Campaign for the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) opposed nuclear proliferation by carrying out an active, vigorous campaign to ban nuclear weapons and accomplish the goals of the TPNW. Here, two opposing sides emerged on this rather current issue. This study examines the potential of the European Union (EU) which has members from both sides and has policies towards non-proliferation and controlling nuclear weapons since its foundation, to lead and advance the movement of the ban of nuclear weapons, namely the TPNW process. The study intends to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the EU in its support and contribution to the TPNW process, conducting a further discussion on the issue.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, European Union, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Europe